Virginia: What lies ahead?

Whether one believes the 2020 Election was fraudulent or not does not dismiss the fact that Virginia has solidly more than ever become politically a "blue" state. Those that dismiss that fact are either those that profit by not admitting as much or simply those ignoring facts.

2020 Election by Region

The Election of 2020 was what is called a "base" election. Period.

The problem in terms of Virginia for the Virginia GOP is it had to wage a two front battle throughout 2020. On one front it had to fight the surging Democratic machine and outside money has it had in 2019 but also had to deal with the "Never Trumpers" from within the Republican Party itself. Many of the latter subscribe to the notions of the Lincoln Project.

While rural Virginia turned out in 2020, so to did the urban centers that overwhelmingly support Democrats.  Trump appears to have made significant inroads with minorities in places like Norfolk and Hampton precincts in 2020 compared to 2016.

In Norfolk, Trump raised his support from 26% to 44.17% and in Hampton from 28.9% to 44.63% among voters. The question however remains whether these votes were mere "Trump" votes and not "GOP" votes and whether the Virginia GOP has the capacity to keep these votes in the upcoming election of 2021 for the Virginia Executive.

2020 Election by County/City in Virginia

What cannot be understated is Trump lost the Virginia suburbs. No path to victory exists in statewide elections without winning the suburban vote in Virginia. One glaringly concerning development for the Virginia GOP was the loss of Chesterfield County. Trump has won the county in 2016 but lost the county in 2020 but some seven points. Biden outperformed both Obama and Clinton in Chesterfield County which now mirrors Henrico County across the James River in suburban Richmond where Trump losts by some twenty nine points. This was a county formerly held by Rep. Eric Cantor (R) for over a decade until his defeat six years ago in a primary at the hands of the Tea Party.  ( See upcoming posts: "Virginia: How the Tea Party Changed Virginia?")

Virginia now is decisively "blue" in statewide elections or "popular votes".  Biden like Governor Ralph Northam (D) won overwhelmingly in Virginia and did so simply by raising the voter turnout in the very areas of the Commonwealth that the Democrats have controlled post 2013. Bidens 53.92% is virtually  identical to Northam's 53.90 in 2017. Whereas Gov. Northam (D) earned 1,409,175, V.P. Joe Biden in 2020 earned 2,377,061. That is almost 1 million more votes cast in 2020 for Biden than for Northam three years prior. One hope in 2021 for Republicans is that this level of turnout will not be sustainable in the November 2021 elections. This may not be that far fetched in truth given Hillary Clinton generated 1,981,473 in 2016 some 500,000 more votes than Northam in 2017, however the ground game and the infrastructure is more developed now than it was in 2017 for Democrats across the Commonwealth.

We have learned that the more things change the more they in fact stay the same in Virginia politics. Virginia has not supported a Republican for President since George W. Bush(2004)  and not a Republican Governor since Bob McDonnell (R) since 2009. The Congressional Delegation to Washington remains unchanged and sits 7-4 in favor of the Democrats and the Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats.

The hope for a resurgence for the Virginia GOP is the General Assembly. The Commonwealth will hold elections for the House of Delegates in 2021 which will be crucial for the GOP even more so than the Executive races that may be out of reach. Many believe that a Biden administration could open the door for the GOP in terms of next years race for Governor but much will hinge not on the Democrats but rather who the Virginia GOP actually nominates.

The Democrats claim that Trump was repudiated in Virginia last Tuesday. However, Trump did raise his vote count by almost 150,000 votes from 2016 to 2020. The Virginia GOP very well may be smart to look towards focusing on one aspect of the Trump appeal in terms of 2021 and that is his business acumen and  being an outsider. In other words, fresh new blood and not a retired from the GOP stable.

Two potential candidates that fit this strategy are Pete Synder and Glenn Youngkin. Two businessman that have been working during the pandemic to support Virginia workers and families throughout the crisis. Snyder's "Virginia 30 Day Fund" and Youngkin's "Virginia Ready" have been successful endeavors supporting the working class families of Virginia. While Snyder has some campaign experiences in Virginia, Youngkin would be a complete outsider with broad appeal to fiscal and moderate conservatives. Neither men even remotely resemble the "Trump" personality let alone would make any attempt to replicate it as others in the GOP have attempted thus far in Virginia. Other potential candidates include Delegate Kirk Cox or former State Senator Bill Carrico.

How much impact Trump will have on 2021 is still an unknown but any attempt to replicate Trump in a statewide race will be met with the same fate at the polls. The GOP requires an authentic voice to address what the Commonwealth will face in the coming years and with a budget shortfall of almost 3 billion and tax hikes almost a certainty it will be new voices that are required to attract suburban voters back into the GOP fold.

The 2021 General Assembly will loom large on the 2021 election cycle. How far the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party of Virginia yields its power will be center stage. The wing appears to be determined to go after law enforcement, gun reform, criminal sentencing reforms and a robust tax hike from sales tax to income tax. 

The biggest question today is whether the Virginia Democrats will over play their hand during the 2021 General Assembly session in Richmond.

Is the GOP in Trouble in VA-07?: Henrico County

 

Any analysis of a particular race in Virginia these days often triggers many defense mechanisms. For too long these defense mechanisms have created a situation of denial for the Virginia GOP in which there has been little acknowledgement or change in the party messaging given the changing demographics on the ground in many localities in Virginia.

An objective analysis here based not only historical voting trends, demographics, metrics but also conversations with voters on the ground in Henrico County going into next months Congressional contest in the VA-07.

The VA-07 is an historically a very conservative district in Virginia currently represented by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) elected in 2018 during to so-called "blue wave" election that was the first Congressional cycle following the election of President Trump in 2016.

The Virginia GOP is seeking to unseat Rep. Spanberger and nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) late summer to challenge her via a nominating convention. Freitas was nominated after three rounds of ballots at the convention held in Doswell, Virginia.

I respect Delegate Nick Freitas and find him to be an outstanding Delegate from Culpeper County who is in my opinion one of the best orators on the floor of the Virginia House of Delegates. While Freitas ran in 2018 for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and lost to Corey Stewart (R), I hope that the result of this election does not negatively impact the future of this rising star in the Virginia GOP. Elections always can offer surprises however this cycle is probably one of the most divisive in Virginia history since the Presidential Election of 1860.

Often it is inevitable that "down ballot" candidates can be at the mercy of the Presidential race. One recent factor with independent voters is the takeaway from the first and possibly only Presidential debate last week that many perceived as the worst in debate history.

The coming 2020 Census will certainly reveal even more changes in demographics that have occurred in the last decade in Henrico County, however what is obvious to any political analyst is the the trends on the ground in suburban areas have shifted from supporting Republicans in Virginia overwhelmingly a decade ago to now supporting Democrats in Presidential, Congressional and statewide races for the Virginia Executive.

The Virginia Seventh Congressional District offers us insight into this shift given two of the largest suburban localities in Virginia comprise the majority of voters in the district. Both Chesterfield County and Henrico County were once Republican strongholds in Virginia election history. The latter no longer can be considered a Republican stronghold given the shift in the last decade and the former may shift left as well in the coming cycle.

Understand this. 

Henrico County will determine the winner of the Congressional race in 2020 for the VA-07.

No examination of the race for the VA-07 Congressional seat can ignore what has happened in Henrico County over the last few years politically. Henrico County truly illustrates the ground that the Virginia GOP has lost in suburbia. Many pundits on the right would likely disagree but the voting metrics reveal a very distinct transformation in voting behavior in suburbs the more the Virginia GOP takes extreme positions on social issues and federal immigration policies.  The messaging remains mixed and the perception is that the Virginia GOP does not support immigrants even though the intent was to address "illegal" immigrants. Candidates like Corey Stewart and State Senator Amanda Chase have alienated many immigrants according to many residents in the VA-07.

What has contributed to this shift in voting trends?

The biggest factor is clearly the demographic change that Henrico with roughly 330,000 residents has experienced over the last decade. 

One of the changes is that there are now more women living in Henrico now representing 52%+ of the population. A population now has a growing non-white population where the Blacks represent 30%, Asians 10% and Hispanics now 7%. This constitutes an estimated 47% of the population in Henrico.

The GOP nationally is facing declines in support from women and immigrant groups. Some political analysts and firms that track such polling data have estimated that the GOP is now -34% with women and -19% with immigrant populations. Whether one agrees with such analysis or not the metrics of this are playing out at the polls and is demonstrated in the correlation in the decline of Republican support in Henrico in the last few election cycles.

Henrico by any estimation is an affluent locality. 18% of population has a post graduate degree and 52% of the population as at least some college or a college degree. These metrics represent 10% higher than the Virginia averages.

Another relevant factor in 2020 is the rising 16% of the population that is 65+. This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP and the Nick Freitas campaign because national polling is demonstrating that President Trump is losing support of seniors dramatically compared to 2016. 

One of the biggest metrics now in Henrico in terms of elections is the fact that 13.5% of the population is now "foreign born". This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP on the coat tails of the Corey Stewart 2018 campaign for U.S. Senate and the current campaign for the GOP nomination for Governor by Amanda Freeman Chase for 2021. The GOP has steadily lost support in the immigrant community since 2013 after earning a large share of it in 2009.  The majority of immigrants coming to Henrico are from Asia (55%) and Latin America (23%) followed by Europe (12%) and Africa (9%). There appears little outreach efforts thus far from the Republican Party of Virginia this cycle to appeal to the immigrant communities throughout Virginia.

The factor that appears to have not drawn virtually any messaging from the GOP and specifically the Nick Freitas campaign is that the majority of new business start-ups have come from women and "foreign born" Virginians in Henrico. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis has directly impacted many of these business yet there appears to be very little mention of how President Trump's actions have supported the business communities whether lower corporate taxes or stimulus provisions to support small business. Rep. Spanberger has leveraged thus far the actions of Congress in terms of the first stimulus to her own ends in touting support for small business.

An example of the Spanberger pitch:

"For 2 years, I’ve worked to be a strong voice in Congress on the issues that impact people’s daily lives in #VA07. -Lowering the cost of prescription drugs -Expanding broadband internet access -Recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic"

Freitas is a Army veteran and 6.3% of the Henrico population are veterans with the overwhelming majority having served in Vietnam and the Gulf War 1990's. Recent polling has demonstrated weaker support from veterans in 2020 for Trump than in 2016 and this should be a real concern as well for the Freitas campaign. Rep. Scott Taylor is experiencing the same dynamic in his challenge for his old seat in the VA-02 comprising the Virginia Beach region.

The median income for residents of Henrico is roughly 68,000. This is a factor that should play well for the Freitas campaign however there has been very little messaging regarding the Trump tax cuts thus far from the campaign that certainly benefited a majority of residents living in Henrico. Instead the majority of the messaging thus far has targeted Rep. Abigail Spanberger's (D) voting record in Congress the last two years and her alignment with some of the most liberal in the House of Representatives.

What is interesting is the continued attempted links to Speaker of House Pelosi and the Spanberger voting record and the assertion that Spanberger is not as "moderate" or "blue dog" as she campaigns compared to when she is voting in Washington appears to be an extension of similar messaging that failed Rep. David Brat (R) in 2018. Spanberger in truth does not appear to have a very "moderate" record at all however the message does not appear to resonate with many voters in the manner in which it is asserted.

Thus far the approach appears to be a strategy set on "voting against" Spanberger as opposed to "voting for" Nick Freitas. The issue with this approach in talking with voters in Henrico  is that while the Presidential election very well may be a "referendum" election on Trump, many voters do not see this Congressional election in the VA-07 as a "referendum" on Spanberger. Spanberger like Freitas is very lpersonable nd likeable figure when you speak with people whom have met both of them

I recently had the opportunity to speak with some voters from Henrico where my wife lived for a time and what is rather interesting is the amount of split voting that may occur next month among independent voters that thus far is not showing up in any polling. It is estimated that roughly 14% of voters nationally are independent voters and these voters are often less concerned with "policy" per say as many other voters. They are not partisans by any means and many have voted for Democrats as many times as Republicans. Many for example supported Trump in 2016 yet supported Democrats in 2017 for Delegates representing Henrico in the Virginia General Assembly. These very seats have all flipped the last decade to the Democrats in the county.

What has to be  (or should be) alarming to the Virginia GOP is the steep decline in support for Republican candidates in Henrico County.

Out of a population of 330,000 some 105,000 voters turned out in 2018 at the polls in the last Congressional race for the VA-07. Spanberger won Henrico County 60.96% to 36.89% over Rep. David Brat (R).

In 2016 Rep. David Brat had won the county with 50.77% of the vote but came in -14% cycle over cycle. There are some reasons of course in examining the decline in support for the GOP candidates  however not one more meaningful than redistricting. The GOP used to have the support of Hanover County precincts to the tune of 70% in the years that Rep. Eric Cantor (R) held the seat when the GOP dominated the VA-07 at the polls.

In statewide races Henrico shifted from support of statewide and national Republicans to Democratic candidates where it once supported the likes of Bob McDonnell (R) for Governor in 2009 but by 2013 had started to shift to the left at the polls. Governor Terry McAuliffe decimated Republicans in 2013 with an astounding 51.2% to 38% over Ken Cuccinelli. Subsequent candidates from the GOP have met similar fate though Brat did win in an off cycle election in 2014 with 55% of the vote. 

If we examine Rep. David Brat's performance in VA-07 after defeating Rep.Eric Cantor (R) in an historic primary with the support of the Tea Party the movement quickly fizzled out and was reabsorbed back into into the GOP much to the dismay of many within it. Thus from 2014 where Brat earned 55%  in Henrico he declined to 50.77% in 2016 and ultimately 36.89%. Overall throughout the VA-07 in 2018 Brat earned 48.40%  some 12 points better than he performed in Henrico.

What is interesting when speaking to Henrico County voters when one canvasses or speaks to residents is that there is still support for some local Republicans. State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant withheld a challenge in 2019 by Delegate Debra Rodman (D) who she defeated 50.76% to 49.06%. Much of this can be attributed to the Hanover precincts that remain in the VA-12 Senate District that no longer are part of the VA-07 Congressional. 

Dunnavant outperformed both President Trump and Rep. David Brat in heavily "red" precincts and many of them by four to six basis points.

Lets examine a few precincts that will impact the 2020 Congressional race for the GOP:

103: Glen Allen

2012 : 61.95 (Cantor) 2016 : 60.38 (Brat) 2016:  49% Trump 2018:  48.57 (Brat) 2019:  Dunnavant 54.37

302: Cedarfield

2012: 64% (Cantor)  2016: 62% (Brat)   2016: 50% (Trump)  2018: 51% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 57%

403: Derbyshire

2012: 69% (Cantor)   2016: 66% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 55% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 60%

417: Tuckahoe

2012: 72% (Cantor)   2016: 69% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 56% (Brat)  2019  Dunnavant  65%

These are heavily conservative leaning precincts and illustrate that even among these districts there have been shifts metrics wise over last decade.

Some other races to consider: Henrico supported the following-

Hillary Clinton (D) 2016- 57%

Governor Ralph Northam (D) 2017 52%

U.S Senator Tim Kaine (D) 2018 57%

Now worth consideration for supporters of the Virginia GOP to consider is that the two Republican candidates that have outperformed all other GOP candidates are:

State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R)  2019 50.76%

Jill Vogel (Lt. Governor Candidate) 2017 50%

Republicans must overcome the denial of the trends on the ground in suburbia that Henrico illustrate. The two women representing the GOP on ballots in Henrico County recently are the very two Republicans that the State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase wing of the party ( Cuccinelli, Stewart, Brat) have railed against and attempted to label as "Liberal Republicans" or  "Establishment" yet it appears these State Senators appeal to voters and know how to appeal to voters via dedicated messaging that speaks to families in the suburbs. Another is Lt. Governor Bill Bolling from Hanover that pulled in 56.29% of the vote across Virginia in 2009 and has become a target of the Chase campaign in recent weeks rehashing the 2013 race in which Bolling withdrew and AG Ken Cuccinelli supported by Chase won the nomination and ultimately lost to Governor Terry McAuliffe (D).

Given the trends on the ground and the historical metrics, the Virginia GOP and Delegate Nick Freitas appear in real trouble even in the wake of over reach by the Virginia State Legislature in the last year and an aggressive GOTV effort for GOP supporters.

I anticipate the following results next month in the VA-07 UNLESS messaging changes in the next three weeks----for example have yet to see a single Spanish ad this cycle or heard one on the radio thus far from Freitas ( if anyone has please comment below so I may locate it). 6% of the population speaks Spanish as primary language in the home in Henrico and there is a significant rising population in Spotsylvania and Chesterfield Counties. This something that Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) used effectively in 2009 yet the consultant trend in the GOP is to not spend in this area it seems the last few cycles. A correlation can be drawn directly to this lack of focus to the declining trend in Hispanic support for Virginia GOP statewide and Congressional candidates.

Important to note: 

2016 Trump won VA-07 51.14% to 43.30%

Amelia County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Chesterfield County: (113,000 voters) Spanberger

Culpeper County: (20,000 voters) Freitas

Goochland County: (13,000 voters) Freitas

Henrico County:(105,000 voters) Spanberger

Louisa County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Nottoway County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Orange County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Powhatan County; (18,000 voters) Freitas

Spotsylvania County: (38,000 voters) Freitas 

I expect Delegate Nick Freitas to win every rural locality in the VA-07 which all lean Conservative however I expect Rep. Abigail Spanberger to win re-election because she will will hold serve in both Henrico County and Chesterfield County she won in 2018. Spanberger easily wins Henrico County however Chesterfield while very tight race in 2016 between Trump and Clinton with Trump only winning the historically conservative Chesterfield by less than 1% supported Spanberger two years later in 2018 by 10 points.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott

Aliscia Andrews: Rising Star in Virginia GOP

 

Jonathan Scott

Guest Contributor

There are very few conservative candidates who have impressed me more the last few election cycles in Virginia than Tina Ramirez (VA7) and Aliscia Andrews the Republican nominee in the Virginia Tenth Congressional District. Both ladies are first time Republican candidates that determined to seek the nomination to challenge Democratic Congresswoman and are rising stars in the Virginia GOP.

Tina Ramirez's candidacy in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District fell short as the convention nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) who has run a few local races as well as a statewide primary race against Corey Stewart in 2018 for U.S. Senate in which he lost. The story with Rameriz very similar with Andrews in that very few gave either a chance to win the nomination especially given both were nominating conventions. Conventions in Virginia tend to produce the most entrenched interest of nominees and often through rather suspicious means. Ramirez  finished behind Freitas in balloting but performed extraordinary for a first time Congressional candidate with limited resources. Andrews, a Marine veteran and a a contractor with Department of Homeland Security path to the nomination was one of precision campaigning.

Aliscia Andrews had only 27% after the first round of balloting at the VA10 Convention. Most never gave Andrews much of a chance going into the convention however far too many underestimated to level of retail campaigning and relationship building she dedicated herself to throughout the campaign. After speaking with many participants in the convention many stated that while Andrews was not their first choice they respected the fact that she was always gracious and engaging and ran a very respectful campaign when it came to the other challengers. This in the end was the difference in getting her nominated.

The expected winner was Rob Jones. Jones in fact won the first two rounds of balloting securing 31% in the first round than 34% in the second. Andrews increased her votes to 33% in the second round after Jeffery Dove was removed from contention. By the third round it was down to Jones and Andrews after Matt Troung was removed after the second round where he earned 32% just one percent less than Andrews. In the third and final round Andrews defeated Jones 57-42%.

Andrews has been running a dedicated "WEXIT" campaign focused on defeating Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) in November. Andrews rarely concentrated any time focused on fellow potential nominees and stayed laser focused on speaking to voters (delegates) on how to unseat Wexton. "Wexit" is a play on the "Vexit" movement that popped up where some counties in Virginia have been courted by West Virginia to join it given they resemble West Virginia more than Virginia culturally and politically. Many Virginians in rural and mountain areas no longer see Richmond as relating to them and their lifestyles let alone respecting it. 

The VA10 represents all of Clarke, Frederick and Loudoun Counties in western Northern Virginia and incldues Winchester, Manassas, Manassas Park and parts of Fairfax and Prince William Counties.

Jennifer Wexton (D-V10) similar to Abigail Spanbeger (D-VA7) was elected during the so-called "blue wave" of 2018. Wexton defeated Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock(R) while Spanberger defeated Rep. David Brat (R). Both were successful in winning the suburban vote especially that of women. Wexton won Fairfax by 18 points over Comstock very similarly as Spanberger won Henrico County in suburban Richmond by the same margin. Whereas Spanberger only won two localities in the VA7 and won, Wexton five localities outright and one within 1% margin.

Andrews likely will win Clarke and Frederick County however will need to make major inroads in my childhood home in Loudoun County. Fairfax is strong Wexton country and the  urban areas of Manassas and Manassas Park are very Democratic with heavy immigrant demographics that have been supporting Virginia Demcorats the last few cycles in mass. Loudoun was once a strong "red" county but has seen  shift with the massive growth of the federal government and the growth that it has experienced resulting in a shift towards the left just like Fairfax experienced decades before.

Andrews however carries none of the "establishment" baggage that Wexton used effectively against Comstock so it will be interesting to see how the Wexton campaign plays things and whether it will simply run against Trump given its a Presidential cycle. Trump lost the VA10 by seven points in 2016 and performed roughly the same as Comstock in Loudoun County.

Having lived in both the counties of Loudoun and Chesterfield the two are very similar and will determine the outcomes of both Congressional races this November. Chesterfield is following the same journey politically as Loudoun as it to is now moving to the left at the polls in statewide elections though still supporting GOP candidates locally.

Andrews like Rameriz will not be defined by the outcomes of this race as both have already far exceeded any expectation most had with regard to their campaigns. 

Political Survival in 2021: Redistricting at the Gates

 

During the 2020 General Assembly session in March, the Democratic majority passed the legislation addressing the means of which statewide redistricting will be determined. Redistricting has traditionally been a product of the State Legislature every ten years following the Census Report that evaluates the distribution  and changes of population. Not only is this significant to the legislature but also the level of representation a state will send as a delegation to the House of Representatives in Congress.

Virginia currently has an 11 member Congressional Delegation. There is not data thus far to support that following the 2020 Census that that number will change. Virginia currently has 8.5 million residents  The 2010 Census reported a population of 8,001,024 Virginians. Other states like New York , California, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania for example are predicted to actually lose at least one seat in Congress due to population changes while Texas and Florida are poised to gain one. This is important politically for both parties.

In Virginia however, the immediate impact will be redistricting existing districts both relating to the Legislature and Congress.

The power to "gerrymander" is an old game and one played by both parties historically. Gerrymandering refers to the manner in which the majority draws new lines of districts to benefit them politically. If you examine some of these districts they are hardly uniform. They are drawn less on basis of the population of a geographic area and more by using the historical voting metrics of local precincts. The majority always claims such redraws are done to address disenfranchisement however that appears less the case when you examine the history of them. It is more a matter of political metrics given various pockets of areas. This is easily illustrated in the manner in which all these districts appear simply by examining them in map form.

The Democratic majority largely flip flopped from 2018 to 2020 on the issue of removing the legislative redistricting and placing it in the hands of an independent (more or less) commission. Democrats supported a commission while in the minority yet after the 2019 election cycle that saw Democrats take control of both chambers of government in the legislature changed their position. During the 2020 legislative session only nine Democrats supported the amendment joining 45 Republicans in the House of Delegates. After championing the commission in previous years, the Virginia Black Caucus appeared to do a complete about face on the issue claiming that a commission would suppress black political power. 

The previous year during the 2019 General Assembly Session that exact same bill passed 83-15 in the House of Delegates with support of majority of the Black Caucus. So what changed? What changed was a power shift in government and the securing of the "trifecta" of controlling both chambers in the Capitol and the Executive led by Governor Ralph Northam (D).

For Virginians what is clearly on display here is a lesson in Politics 101.  Democrats once securing power no longer wanted Virginians themselves to play a role in determining how redistricting would take place and under whose direction. They did so only when they were out of power.

The amendment to the Virginia State Constitution calls for a sixteen member bipartisan commission of which eight would still remain state legislators comprising members of both chambers as well as eight citizens. If the commission ever were to be unable to decide on an plan than ultimately the Virginia Supreme Court would decide the outcome. This is something opponents to the measure like Del. Mark Levine (D) highlighted last year in his opposition given the court in his view is overwhelming stacked with conservative appointed judges.

Virginia Democrats for years have crafted messaging that the courts are not to be trusted. One could argue that Democrats have attacked every major institution in Virginia in truth. The recent protesting and riots seem to illustrate this point. If the judicial system can not be trusted to remain objective in this process than who would the Democrats suggest have that power? Well, their legislative majority of course.

Will voters support the amendment referendum in November? Many suspect that Virginia will support this measure. There have been many groups and organizations like One Virginia 2021 that have been strong advocates for the measure.

Redistricting itself will happen one way or another. The Republicans face the fact that many of its stronger districts especially in the Senate very well may get redrawn, especially many of those that have been staunch supporters of President Trump. 

One such Senate district is the Virginia 11th. Long a solid "red" district in Chesterfield County, Virginia and represented by potential gubernatorial candidate State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase has experienced a massive shift that has largely gone unreported by the media. Not unlike other districts in Chesterfield where the strength of the GOP brand is declining.

If the change in voting metrics is examined over the course of the last decade or so the shift is massive. The Virginia Senate hold elections every four years. Here are the winning percentage in the Virginia 11th since 2003.

2003- 97.27 (Steve Martin)

2007- 62.41 (Steve Martin)

2011- 94.7% (Steve Martin)

2015- 63.74% (Amanda Chase) -Chase defeated Martin in primary than won General

2019- 54.51% (Amanda Chase)

The most alarming metric in the voting data is that Senator Chase won in 2015 with a 27 point margin in 2015 and four years later saw that margin decline 18 points to +9 winning with 54.51%.

Many have speculated that this data is one of the major factors that Senator Chase has declared her candidacy to run for Governor in 2021. There were rumors Chase would seek the GOP nomination in the Virginia Congressional District but declined to run given that the district determined to hold a "convention method" over a primary. Chase has stated she knows the district (VA7) better than anyone given her participation on the Rep. David Brat (R) campaign who defeated Rep.Eric Cantor (R) in a primary and ultimately went to Congress. Brat would lose his re-election bid in 2018. 

The changing demographics of the Virginia 11th, especially in the Chesterfield portion of the district are moving away from the the base that Chase has held. While the county is still lead by a Republican Board of Supervisors, the board and the local Republican committee do not appear to support Senator Chase any longer. This poses a real challenge for Chase in 2023. The metrics are going the opposite direction just as the GOP has witnessed in the Virginia 10th adjacent to the Virginia 11th that the GOP lost in 2019.

Chase is one politician to watch over the course of the coming year. Chase has stated she would run as an independent if she did not secure the GOP nomination but the real thing to watch for is Chase has always had any eye on Congress. If Delegate Nick Freitas (R) nominated last month to represent the GOP on the ballot this November in the Virginia 7th Congressional District does not defeat Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) do not be shocked if Chase transitions to a 2022 Congressional bid unless of course Chase herself become victim to any  redistricting that may occur.

"Bait & Switch": Chase Communications Prove Claims False

                                              https://www.facebook.com/TurnVARedAgain/

                  Has State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R)  compromised her campaign?

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever maybe our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”

- John Adams

“The Virginia Transparency Caucus encourages public engagement and allows the public to hold their legislators more accountable by bringing the General Assembly to the ordinary citizen,”(Senator Amanda Chase).

State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase ( R ) representing the Virginia 11th District comprising Chesterfield, Amelia, and Colonial Heights has gone to war this week with supporters over whom she calls "nefarious" and "bad actors". The battle continued over the weekend after Chase released a post and then provided a recording of her interview with the Richmond Times -Dispatch that she apparently failed to inform reporter Patrick Wilson of the @RTDNews she was recording. Wilson published an article on Richmond.com attempting to get the evasive Chase on the record regarding her attempts to take control of one of the supporter pages on Facebook and have it fundraise for her campaign "unofficially". The group had no desire in becoming a "dark site" for Chase.

As of this post there are about a half dozen "Chase for Governor" pages and groups on Facebook. There is no reporting of Chase raising any concerns regarding any of these pages or groups. As a public figure, it is not uncommon for "supporter" and "fan" pages or groups to be created without the involvement of the figure. The group that Chase chose to go to war with was fully transparent in its efforts and intentions behind creating the group. Its description clearly states that the group is unaffiliated with any campaign nor is run by any staff from any campaign. It is clear from the public comments made that Chase attempted to seek "control" of the group by demanding placement of her own staff or herself as administrator of the group.

Join is discussion in Chasing Victory in Virginia 2020-21 here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

Chase had joined the group herself on Janaury 20, 2020. It was not until she became angry over a post reported to her by her mother who also was in the group that a supporter posted a positive post concerning State Senator Jill Vogel (R). Vogel was the Republican candidate for Lt. Governor in 2017. It was commented that Vogel while losing to Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax (D) outperformed every other Republican running for statewide office in ther last few cycles including President Trump. This comment angered Chase who has demonstrated a very thin skin in the past (See Capital Police incident 2019) when dealing with others especially conservatives she feels should hold allegiance to her.

Chase became irate when she was taken to task for her vote on an anti-discrimination bill S.B 868 passed by the Virginia Senate in which she voted "Nay".Chase felt as though she should not have to defend her votes or positions to "supporters" and that anyone that would question her positions is clearly not a "supporter". Chase asserted that if you are in a "supporter group" that it was no place to question her positions on such things as conversion therapy which Chase says she supports. These votes are controversial positons for many voters in Virginia especially suburban families with children that are gay or lesbian or identify a transgender queer. These families may not be Chase's target audience today but will need them come any statewide race in 2021 and that was exactly what the supporter was asking Chase to explain. Chase has stated she is pro-family yet her vote on S.B. 868 is appears to contradict that claim. When dealing with issues, Chase typical invokes her Christian faith and that has not sat well with all supporters according to recent interactions. Not all families living in Virginia hold the same "values" as Chase let alone her faith.


                                    

Chase was called out for the fact the Republican Creed clearly states that "all individuals are entitled to equal rights, justice and opportunities". In effect her vote denies such equal rights to minorities,  pregant women and people of differing national origins. Chase defended her "conservative" positions but was informed that they were not "Republican" positions. Chase has been removed from her local county Republican committee last September for similar decisions after not following the committees by laws and going her own way.  The vote against any anti-discrimination is a vote in support of discrimination itself. A battle that the Republican Party itself fought for in the Civil Rights Movement.

Chase decided to take to her official page to condemn the group she had been a member of four months with no issues after the group adminstrators and moderator refused to remove the supporters who questioned her or would not permit her Campaign Manager Philip Search being made administrator. Chase's position appears to be that if the group moderators were true "supporters" they would simply turn the group they built to over eleven thousand members over to her. This appears to be a pattern for Chase similar to her incident with the Capital Police where she made claims than once a video was released was forced to walk back her intial claim that she did not drop the "f bomb" in berating an officer. Chase appears to have asserted she made no demands upon the group moderators, however communication between Chase and the group prove that claim false.

Chase released the following statement on her official page regarding the supporters group:

“Bait and switch” is an unethical, non-transparent and disingenuous tactic used not only to lure innocent non-suspecting victims to purchase goods presented as one thing that turn out to be something completely different, victimizing the consumer.

And that which is substituted is usually far substantially less in value that was originally marketed. Unfortunately, that happens in politics and this week it happened to me. Well I refuse to be the victim.

I’ve learned in politics that there are supporters and then there are opportunists. There is no greater honor than earning the confidence of someone who believes you are the right person for a position.

Since I’ve announced my run for governor I’ve had many opportunists who tried to use my name and tremendous support across the Commonwealth for their own agenda and even nefarious purposes. I could ignore it but I won’t. As a champion of transparency, I expose it and confront it.

A guy posing as a supporter created a supporter page bearing my name. Over 11k captive supporters to date. Now they are using it as a springboard to recruit a Democrat-like candidate who they will run as a Republican against me. We’re one step ahead of them"

The "Democrat-like" candidate is a clear swipe at State Senator Jill Vogel (R) whom Chase claims ask her to run her 2017 Lt. Governor campaign in a text to supporters. Chase calls the members "captive supporters" as if members are somehow required to remain in the group or kept from leaving. A group that has steadily grown for four months with no issues until Chase was angered by the groups unwillingness to perform what they consider nefarious actions like fundraising off the group. 

The real "opportunist" in this case appears not to be the supporters group  but rather Amanda Chase herself. Chase sought to capture the largest supporters group on facebook for her own purposes. The main purpose was clearly to control member participation and control the speech which puts Chase in the awkward position in light of her continued championing of the 1st Amendment.

Chase claimes that since her announcement in February to run for Governor she has "had many opportunists that have tried to use her name" yet has never spoken publicly or provided any details regarding this instances or made any such claim before on her official page as she made in this instance.

The group in question provided the group activity for the group and demonstrated that Senator Chase's public claim of it being over 30,000 was false. The group has never had more than 11,400 members as illustrated by the activity report.  Chase futher claimed in her interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch reporter that she did not know the group adminstrators and further informed her followers they were "fake", "nefarious" "bad actors" and people she did not know.

On Monday, text communications were published on the web that demonstrate that Senator Chase in fact not only knew the adminstrators but had been in contact with them as far back as October 2019. Apparently the "fake supporters" and "opportunists"  as she claims assisted Chase in her campaign for Senate in 2019. Chase's personal cell phone was used to communicate with adminstrators she claims to have not known here:

These texts did not come from the campaign or staffer but Chase's personal cell phone. Further texts demonstrate that Chase not only knew the parties involved but that her staff had communicated to her what good "supporters" they were of hers. The person named in this text was Chase's Legislative Aid in her Senate office in Richmond:

One thing is clear. The claims being advanced by Chase are false. Chase or her satff has in fact been in contact with these citizens both during session of the GeneralAssembly as well as outside of session. Chase claimed in her interview that her staff has been with her for two years and know better than to contact citizens during session realating to fundraising yet failed to explain exactly why her Campaign Manager contacted administrators on 2/25/20. Chase failed to answer what "business" her campaign staff would have during session contacting adminstrators as call logs represent.

Chase responded with calling out the reporting by the Richmond Times-Dispatch and stating:

"Please join me in canceling your subscription to the Richmond Times Dispatch (#RichmondsCNN)to protest their attack on conservative candidates; like me. I just canceled my 7 day subscription after this last hit piece that came out today.

There is an all out orchestrated attack on conservatives and I refuse to support it!"

Chase subsequently has dismissed the reporting as mere "fake news" and continues to attempt to siphon supporters off of the supporters page she herself  called "fake". This action is about moving those members to her new "Chase for Governor" group where she can fundraise off of supporters in the manner she sought with the original group.

Chase has yet to recant any of her denials or false statements even with published communication between her and her staff coming out. Back in 2016, Amanda Chase took part in the creation of the "Virginia Transparency Caucus". Chase championed the VTC yet appears to not practice at all what she preaches. Chase is not responding to requests to produce evidecne she has to support her claims against the adminstrators yet continues to assert them. This is reminiscent of the Northam vacationing claims in North Carolina during the pandemic crisis.

Chase undertook the very same tactic regarding her claims that Governor Ralph Northam (D) of Virginia was vacationing in North Carolina while Virginians were under Executive Orders to remain at home. On April 21, 2020 Chase informed her followers on her official page that:

"I’ve received many messages by those I know and trust in law enforcement that Governor Northam has been sighted in Manteo, North Carolina aka the Outer Banks during our stay at home order. They’ve sent pictures and other evidence." (Senator Chase)

Chase has yet to release any evidence to support her claims. The "picture and other evidence" claim was clearly nefarious and meant solely to manufacture a story for her own political gain.

This seems to be a pattern for Senator Chase in terms of negative interactions with fellow legislators as well as private citizens and Capital Police. None of the commincation relased thus far supports any claim Chase has made and in fact does just the opposite.The supportes group has asked Chase to apologize publically for her mischaracterizations regarding the group and its members.

As of this morning the supporters group has changed its name but appears to still have over 10,000 members since Senator Amanda Freeman Chase attempted to discredit the group as being "fake" last week on her official Senator page on Facebook. The group has been forced to defend itself against the pulpit of an official State Legislator that has clearly misrepresented facts and had her staff continue to push false claims in videos on facebook directed at the supporter group.

State Senator Chase is proving herself to be exactly what she claims she is not; a true politcian.

https://conservativestateus.blogspot.com/2020/05/amanda-chase-r-clashes-with-supporters.html

The Real Division of the Virginia GOP: Senate Bill 868

No single bill in the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session represents the growing division within the Virginia Republican Party than Senate Bill 868.

The Republican Party of Virginia is quickly approaching a cross roads that will forever shape the Party for a generation or more. There has been little examination by Republican Leadership in Richmond to address the factors that contributed to the loss of the majority in the General Assembly after holding it for almost three decades. Media outlets took the lead on the easy analysis regarding last November in terms of turnout claimed to have delivered the Virginia Democrats its new majority in both the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate.

The deeper analysis speaks to the contributing factors that thus far the Republican Party of Virginia has been unwilling to either accept or refuses to address with its messaging. In fairness, the issue is not across the board within the elected ranks of the Party but a divide exists that is being exasperated by the social conservative elements continual displeasure with the fiscal conservatives who have little interest in elevating social issues to the top of the platform. The social conservative messaging while have appeal to a significant percentage of the Party has not broaden the recruitment of Republican candidates especially in Northern Virginia. The policy positions of the social conservative wing of the Party are not align with the growing population of Northern Virginia where Republicans no longer hold a single seat in areas where they once dominated especially in the House of Delegates. For example, there is not a single seat in the General Assembly held by a single Republican representing any district from Fairfax County. Fairfax is the largest locality in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

In 2019, the Republican Party failed to attract, recruit and run candidates in over thirty races across the Commonwealth. This would be a hard enough issue to face moving forward but with the greater divisions growing within the Party along ideological lines it very well could boil over to disaster for the Virginia GOP in 2021. In 2021, seats in the House of Delegates will be back on the ballot along with the Governor's race in Virginia. The Republican nominee to run for Governor very well could have a direct impact on all the down ballot races.

The growing trends demonstrate the registering of younger voters especially in suburban areas. Indications from the Democratic Primary on Super Tuesday show that more and more younger voters are engaged at a time when the Virginia Republican Party is becoming older and more rural where frankly the populations do not compare to the higher density urban areas where Democratic candidates are dominating. These fact translates to a muddy picture for future statewide races for Republican candidates without broad support from the electorate and that includes younger families.

Virginia population is continuing to climb and will approach nine million in the coming decades. The majority of the population increase is coming in Northern Virginia where Republicans are already losing support. Support that now is said to have fallen below 30% for the first time in over forty years within the region. The demographics of the region that many  believe ultimately will determine all statewide races moving forward is changing. The region is becoming much more diverse than every before.

By 2030 every single "Baby Boomer" in Virginia will be 65 years old or older. The largest and fastest growing ethnic population in Northern Virginia is Asian followed by the Hispanic population. In Fairfax County alone the immigrant population is exploding. The Asian American population now represents 19.3% and the Hispanic American population represents 16.4% in Fairfax County far exceeding the African American population.

Fairfax, Loudoun and Arlington are some of the wealthiest counties in all of America yet the Republican messaging is now not resonating. Localities with medium incomes that now have reached two times the national average continue to vote Democratic. Is the Republican Party of Virginia incapable of appealing to these voters? Is the Party trying to appeal to them with its messaging? Or have elements within the Party turned voters off with the so called "principled" positions that have deep traditional ties to the moral majority of previous political eras?

If the messaging regarding immigrants and other demographics within our country are any indication than there appears to be a true lack of understanding and leadership from the Republican Party of Virginia regarding the future political landscape of Virginia. If the "Conservative" rank and file want to continue their efforts to politically alienate Virginia voters the direct result certainly will be a continuation of the statewide defeats during general election ballot boxes.

Today while the majority of the GOP appears willing to put the safety and welfare of Virginians before politics and support Governor Northam regarding the pandemic shutdown, the opportunists within the Party are attempting to rile up the conservative base with rhetoric that totally paints the Party as a whole as dysfunctional. While this may rally people to causes of course and raise the level of certain politicians it also will create a bitter taste for most Virginians who do not believe that the shutdown is someone being orchestrated as an assault of religion across the Commonwealth.

These attempts further reinforce the controversial positions that the conservative wing of the Republican Party of Virginia have taken in recent years. Last year it was a concerted effort to condemn immigrants. Conservatives failed to craft a consistent message regarding "illegal" or "unlawfully present" aliens but rather came across attacking all immigrants in Virginia while demonstrating support for border wall security.

During the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session, Social Conservative leaders within the Virginia GOP decided to in effect support discrimination. That will come as a shock to many within the Party but the actions of the minority within the Party will forever characterize the entire Party during upcoming elections. The history of the Republican Party and its fight for civil rights and that legacy continues to be undermined by votes taken by the social conservative wing of the Party. How could social conservatives break with the Republican leadership on such a crucial issue in Virginia and one that the majority of Virginian support?

Senate Bill 868 was proposed to address " unlawful discrimination in public accommodations and employment in the Virginia Human Rights Act. Currently, under the Act there is no cause of action for discrimination in public accommodations, and the only causes of action for discrimination in employment are for (i) unlawful discharge on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, or childbirth or related medical conditions including lactation by employers employing more than five but fewer than 15 persons and (ii) unlawful discharge on the basis of age by employers employing more than five but fewer than 20 persons. The bill allows the causes of action to be pursued privately by the aggrieved person or, in certain circumstances, by the Attorney General. Before a civil cause of action may be brought in a court of the Commonwealth, an aggrieved individual must file a complaint with the Division of Human Rights of the Department of Law, participate in an administrative process, and receive a notice of his right to commence a civil action. The bill prohibits discrimination in public and private employment on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. The bill also codifies for state and local government employment the current prohibitions on discrimination in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, age, marital status, disability, or status as a veteran. Additionally, the bill (a) prohibits discrimination in public accommodations on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran; (b) prohibits discrimination in credit on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, disability, and status as a veteran; and (c) adds discrimination on the basis of an individual's sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran as an unlawful housing practice."

The bill clearly is designed to prevent discrimination in Virginia with regard to housing, public accommodation , and employment on basis of sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, national origin, and even veteran status. How could any Republican not support such protections from discrimination?

Does the Republican Party really want to take the position that Virginia families with children that identify with a certain gender or transgender or a particular sexual orientation should grow up in a Virginia where their civil rights are meaningless? That they have to tell their children as they grow up that in Virginia they can be discriminated against or worse are not protected? Do those who claim to be taking the "principled" position of support for discrimination really think that Virginians are going to accept their position as anything other than bigotry? At the same time these very same Republicans reject the Equal Rights Amendment, they fail to either understand or comprehend the optics of these positions upon younger families throughout Virginia.

The following Republicans supported Senate Bill 868 which passed the General Assembly:
Cosgrove, Dunnavant, Hanger, Kiggans, Norment, Vogel--

The following Republicans voted against Senate Bill 868:
Chafin, Chase, DeSteph, McDougle, Newman, Obenshain, Peake, Pillion, Reeves, Ruff, Stanley, Stuart, Suetterlein

Should the Republican Party of Virginia wish to run on a voting record of supporting discrimination against the very populations that are growing in Virginia that is the message that is being sent loud and clear with policy position being taken in the Assembly.

Much of governance is compromise. What has been displayed in recent years in Richmond by Republican lawmakers is an unwillingness for many to compromise. This inability some argue cost the Republican Party the majority in the General Assembly. Virginians have been moving in the opposite direction and the demographics moving forward in Virginia warrant a new message to attract supporters not detract them.

The 2021 Assembly and Governor's race provide a critical opportunity to articulate a new Republican message for Virginians; ALL Virginians.

Chas(e)ing the Nomination in Virginia: State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R)

Seeking to capitalize on the growing level of "Virginia Populism" all across the Commonwealth of Virginia, State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) has announced her intention to run for the Republican nomination for Governor of Virginia four months ago on the steps of the State Capital.

Discussions here Chase for Governor: https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

Senator Chase announced her intentions on Monday standing on the historic steps of the Virginia State Capital on the very afternoon that the Virginia Senate Judiciary Committee voted down one of the most radical, extremist gun control measures ever introduce in Virginia political history. House Bill 961 that was sponsored in the Virginia House of Delegates by Progressive Delegate Mark Levine representing the 45th House District located in Arlington and Alexandria. HB 961 in effect would ban all "assault" style weapons or as Delegate characterizes as "weapons of war" as well as any and all sale of magazines that could hold twelve rounds or more of ammunition. Possession of these items would constitute a felony.

House Bill 961 was simply a similar version of Senate Bill 16 sponsored by Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw of Fairfax County that the Senator had pulled from consideration thus avoiding any debate on the matter in the Senate. Instead, Virginia Democrats in Richmond used the Levine Bill as a vehicle in the House first and then reviewed in committee by the Senate. The bill failed in committee 10-5 after four Democrats moved right and joined Republicans in opposition.

During the Campaign of 2019, Amanda Freeman Chase was one of the very few Republicans who did not run away from President Trump. Chase defeated a heavily funded challenger afer which Chase decided to no longer caucus with the Republican Party.

This means in effect Chase really is not recognized nor treated as a GOP legislator and does not meet with the others in the caucus nor is part of the communication. Chase was stripped of all her previous committee assignments save one once the Democrats took control. Chase in essence is a island in the Virginia Senate like Sander's in the U.S. Senate who in truth is an independent not a Democrat. Chase has done little to reunite with the GOP in 2020 and recent statements from the GOP appear to illustrate hat they remain unsupportive of her .

Chase's decision was made when the Republican leadership that lost control of the majority of both chambers in the Virginia General Assembly for the first time in almost two decades remained intact post election. The Republicans determined in effect to continue with "business as usual". The Leadership had failed to understand just how poor the messaging was in 2019 and determined to run the campaigns in the same manner they always had while the Democrats had evolved and implemented new innovative campaign mechanisms and infrastructure.

One other major factor little reported by the media is the failure of the Republican leadership to even fund the re-election bid of Senator Amanda Freeman Chase. While supporting other Republican Senate candidates the leadership chose not to assist Chase in her efforts. There were even rumors in early 2019 that the leadership was attempting to find someone to primary Senator Chase in a Republican primary. Chase had defeated long time friend of the leadership in Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary before the 2015 election cycle. The Chase victory in that primary came has as one of the most historic local races and only surpassed in Virginia politics by Congressman David Brat's upset of them Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R) in a Congressional Republican primary.

If you examine the campaign contributions in 2019 amidst one of the most heated political campaign seasons in thew history of Virginia, it is clear that the Republican leadership was unwilling to provide the level of support to Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that leadership provided others. Some have attempted to argue that this was a direct result of polling throughout the campaign that indicated that Chase had at least a four point lead in her race as late as August 2019, however it was after this polling that the Republican Party of Virginia in fact made several contributions in the amount beginning in September through October totally seventy seven thousand. That being said, the leadership and Senate political action committees failed to support Chase at all while supporting multiple other Republican candidates,

State Senators right next door to Chase's district in both the 10th and 12th  were provided support via the  Republican Party of Virginia and received enormous support from Republican State Leadership Committee and the Virginia Senate Republican Caucus. In fact Senate Majority Leader Thomas "Tommy" Norment's Senate Leadership/Candidate Committee failed to support Chase yet made heavy contributions in the districts next door to Chase's.

These are the facts relating to the level that the State GOP failed to support Senator Amanda Freeman Chase:

The Norment for Senate committee supported Senator Dunnavant VA12 with 231,00 and Senator Sturtevant VA10 with 709,750. Zero for Chase.

The Republican State Leadership Committee contributed 345,000 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 631,957. Zero for Chase.

The Virginia Senate Republican Caucus contributed 460,500 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 591,059. Zero for Chase.

**Dunnavant would win her re-election bid by about 1% over Delegate Debra Rodman while Sturtevant lost his seat in the Senate by 9 points**

There is little indication that the Va GOP will support Chase in 2021 thus far.

Many Virginians  following Chase's lead have grown very suspicious of Senator Dunnavant who in 2020 General Assembly session appeared to betray the contingent of Second Amendment supporters that campaigned on her behalf and supported her in Hanover County which is were the precincts that thrust her to re-election. Many supporters now on social media have flooded groups with buyers remorse given Dunnavant has cast votes that her challenger in 2019 very well would have cast.

The questions regarding the failure to support Senator Chase are rampant on social media. Chase supporters have become enraged at the Republican Party and the failure of leadership to contribute last November merely double downed on constituent suspicions of the State GOP that resulted after Senator Chase resigned from the Chesterfield County Republican Committee over committee rules relating to membership being required to support/endorse any GOP nominee within the county. Chase failed to endorse a GOP nominee in Karl Leonard for Sheriff instead opting for another option thus alienating herself from her own local committee.

Nevertheless and without any true party support, Senator Amanda Freeman Chase won re-election in 2019 by about nine points over Progressive Amanda Pohl. The race for the seat was one of the most contentious on social media in 2019. One thing that supporters love about Chase is her determination to never back down in a fight. This character trait has never bode well for the "good ole boy" establishment which  behind the scenes has always wish to in effect silence Chase who never seemed capable in their eyes of staying in line with the leadership.

The division between leadership and Chase intensified following the 2019 election. Given nothing according to Chase was addressed by the leadership with regard to the lost majority, Chase walked away. The Republicans would keep the status quo even after the leadership failed to keep control of the Assembly and failed to advance true conservative agendas in the 2019 Assembly session. In fact, the leadership remained quiet regarding Governor Northam's racist "blackface" circumstance as well as Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax had sexual assault allegations levied against him by two women from his own party. Republicans sat on their hands. Failed to push for investigation by committees in the Assembly they controlled. Meanwhile, Republicans all over Virginia sat watching the House of Representatives in Congress levy investigation after investigation against President Trump.

While  Chase never ran away from Trump in 2019 many others did. Nor did she shy away from calling out Governor Northam and Lt. Governor Fairfax and the Democratic hypocrisy relating to those politicians. Chase won handlily in a pro-Trump 2016 district in 2019.

The announcement to run for Governor in 2021 certainly raises Senator Amanda Freeman Chase's profile across Virginia but it also highlights the beginning of a splintering of the Republican Party of Virginia at large. Chase has an ability to speak to those that are frustrated with the State GOP and there is certainly a new coalition forming. The movement mirrors that of the Tea Party Movement back in 2010-12 in Virginia and the Republican leadership should take notice.


It has been Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that has been leading much of the opposition. Chase recently was scolded by Senator Janet Howell (D) of Fairfax County for using her social media to communicate Assembly business to Virginians. The truth is the transparency is not something that either leadership in the Assembly prefer but Chase has determined to deliver it. Chase has in effect made political enemies on both sides of the aisle. Chase asserted that anyone in the Assembly supporting such draconian measures like red flag laws could only be characterized as "traitors to Virginia". Howell's response has been to see to it that Amanda Freeman Chase's sponsored bills have been shelved.

The response by Senator Howell is indicative of the manner in which the new majority is conducting business in the Virginia General Assembly. Supporters of Chase were quick to point out that Howell ultimately was disenfranchising representation of Virginians that live in the Virginia 11th by not permitting the bills sponsored by Chase in committee for consideration.  These tactics may be acceptable in Fairfax County by its overwhelming Democrat majority but all across Virginia this is not how the "Peoples House" is supposed to work and how Virginia business is to be conducted. Howell actually has fueled even grater opposition to her Party and contributed to the awakening that is underway going into the elections of 2020 this Fall.

 

VA07 GOP Primary Contenders 

There is little doubt that Chase will be out this Summer.There is some uncertainty whether the State GOP leadership will get behind Trump this summer. Trump lost Virginia to Hillary Clinton in 2016 but won many of the Congressional Districts like the Virginia 7th held by Democrat Abigail Spanberger since 2018.  Spanberger appears vulnerable for the Democrats in 2020 as Spanberger supported impeachment, supports gun control measures pushed in Richmond and failed to support a pay raise for the military through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in Congress. Spanberger will need support of Chesterfield County in the 2020 Election. As it stands today, Tina Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs appear to be the front runners for the GOP nomination to face Abigail Spanberger however Nick Freitas is gaining ground and funding.

The 2021 Governor's race is almost twenty one months away so Senator Chase has amble time to form her own coalition while building bridges of support with others in the upcoming 2020 Election all across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Chase would be wise to campaign across Virginia in 2020 and connect with other areas of the Commonwealth. Supporters have already taking to social media to drive her brand and raise her identification across the state. A facebook group was created in late January called "Chase for Governor 2021" and already has over eleven thousand members and growing.

Follow here on social media tot stay informed.

https://www.facebook.com/TurnVARedAgain/   The Conservative State

https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/999287823791649/