Virtual Learning: How Gov. Terry McAuliffe and VEA Failed Virginia Families

As the Virginia Legislature continues its "Special Session" next week, one of the biggest issues that will get debated by legislators is how to address the Commonwealth of Virginia's public school system and the lack of "in person" schooling taking place as a direct result of the Covid-19 crisis.

Legislators will have opportunity to consider legislation that attempts to address those students throughout Virginia that live in areas or regions that do not have broadband internet access to facilitate "on-line" or "virtual learning" as well as all the students in the urban and suburban areas with access.

However, it is important to remember that the unpreparedness that the Virginia public education system has experienced during the pandemic very well may have been avoided had it not been for Governor Terry McAuliffe and the Virginia Education Association.

In order to understand why things are where they are in Virginia in terms of education it is important to look backward.

This week during the "Special Session" we have seen Delegates using a "virtual" session which they managed to of on Thursday yet many school systems are still lacking the infrastructure or tools to implement such programs effective

"Let’s empower parents to get the technology, to get their kids the technology to learn virtually... Let’s empower parents to get the tutoring and in-person teaching their children need to excel, regardless of how much money they make.” stated Delegate Carrie Coyner (R).

"I would hope that we would support school systems as they go virtual...not because it’s what we want, but because where we are right now in this epidemic it’s what we need. It’s what’s doable. It’s where students can best learn.” Delegate Schuyler VanValkenburg (D).

Both Coyner and VanValkenburg have experience in education. Coyner is a former School Board member in Chesterfield County and VanValkenburg is a teacher in Henrico County. Both entered the House of Delegates after Governor Terry McAuliffe had left office and never had the opportunity to vote on Virginia's Virtual School Board first introduced in 2016.

These two counties represent significant school age populations in suburban Richmond rivaled only on Northern Virginia counties like Fairfax.

Where other states have transitioned to on-line or "virtual learning" though such platforms as Google classroom or Blackboard, Virginia lags behind. The question becomes how is it that Virginia get caught so off guard during the pandemic with the extended periods of no "in-person" learning and how could the state leave local jurisdictions in such a position of unpreparedness to deal with the situation.

Truth be told this very situation very well could have been avoided entirely. Republicans began working on legislation as early as 2015 regarding increasing the funding in the area of virtual learning though you will not hear much of that around Richmond these days. Members of both parties supported vital legislation in 2016 and 2017 that would have moved virtual learning forward in Virginia with the necessary funding. Virginia did in fact already have some on line learning programs through the Department of Education however, the virtual learning transformation sought via the legislation would have created a virtual school independently.

Here is the measure. Both Senate Bill 1240 and House Bill 1400 were identical.

Republicans Siobhan Dunnavant in the Senate and "Dickie" Bell in the House were the chief patrons of these vital virtual learning bills in 2017.

SB 1240 Virginia Virtual School Board

Virginia Virtual School established. Establishes the Board of the Virginia Virtual School (the Board) as a policy agency in the executive branch of state government for the purpose of governing the full-time virtual school programs offered to students enrolled in the Virginia Virtual School (the School). The Secretary of Education is responsible for such agency. The 14-member Board is given operational control of the School and assigned powers and duties. Beginning with the 2019-2020 school year, the bill requires the School to be open to any school-age person in the Commonwealth and to provide an educational program meeting the Standards of Quality for grades kindergarten through 12, with a maximum enrollment of 5,000 students statewide. The bill requires the average state share of Standards of Quality per pupil funding for each enrolled student to be transferred to the School

Incorporates S.B 1380 ( Sen. Petersen (D) )

Incorporates S.B.  1570 (Se. Peake (R) )

02/03/17 Passes 38--0- 1 abstention Senate

02/20/17 Passes the House of Delegates 59-37

03/13/17- Vetoed by Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) 

04/05/17  Senate sustains Governors Veto  21-19

04/05/17- Veto Overide fails in Senate--- requires  27 YES votes.

So what happened? Why did this particular bill supported by both the House and Senate that not only passed in 2017 but had also passed both in 2016 get vetoed a second time by Governor Terry McAuliffe (D). This may provide insight.

         

This comes from the Virginia Education Association (VEA) Daily Reports dated April 6, 2017. Clearly the VEA stood in the way of this significant legislation becoming law. This provides some insight of how the lobbying efforts of the VEA who represents teachers throughout Virginia who pay membership may have directly resulted in where Virginia is today with virtual learning and why Virginia is playing catch up some three years later.

VEA had Virtual School Board in effect killed even after legislators supported it until the Governor vetoed the measure.

"Every year, on a Wednesday, six weeks after the close of session, the General Assembly reconvenes to take up the Governor's action on the bills passed by the legislature during the regular session. Yesterday was that day. Governor McAuliffe has vetoed 40 bills this session. Delegate Kirk Cox gave a floor speech announcing that the Governor has set a single-session record for vetoes. Because all his vetoes held, Governor McAuliffe has vetoed 111 bills during his term. That is a term record as well. Governor Gilmore has the next highest number- 91 vetoes. Delegate Toscano did remind the House that many of the House bills the Governor vetoed this session are identical to bills he vetoed last session.

The VEA was following a group of bills. These bills are all bad for public education and we are thankful to our members who have called, emailed, and written the Governor asking for his veto. We are also grateful that WE WERE HEARD! Governor McAuliffe vetoed all of the bills we requested. We expect the vetoes to be upheld since you need a 2/3 vote to overturn a veto. The Senate sits at 21-19, so it is very difficult to get a 2/3 vote in that body. The House, on the other hand, sits at 66-34, just one vote away from a 2/3 vote possibility. We followed the House closely, but we felt good that we had locked up our votes. Thank you to the 34 members of the House of Delegates who stood with us on the vetoes!

Today we will watch the following veto votes:

House Bill 1400, Delegate Dickie Bell's Virtual School Bill (the Senate version, Senate Bill 1240, from Senator Dunnavant is identical to the House bill and was also vetoed). In his veto, the Governor questioned the constitutionality of these bills. He also commented that, even with off-session work to improve this legislation, it passed in a nearly identical form as House Bill 8 from the 2016 session that he also vetoed. These bills would establish a separate Virtual School Board independent of the Virginia Board of Education and would receive state funding on a per-pupil basis based, draining those resources from our traditional public schools. All school divisions in VA are already required to offer on-line courses, and the VA Department of Education already offers full-time, virtual high school. The VEA opposed these bills and we are grateful the veto was upheld. In the House, the 34 Democrats were joined by Republican Delegates Bloxom, Farrell, Habeeb, Helsel, Hugo, Miller, Ware and Yost in sustaining the Governor's veto."

These bills in 2017 were first introduced in 2016 as House Bill 8. The Daily Press reported the following on March 31, 2016:

"Under the legislation, a student will be able to enroll in a state-approved virtual program if a parent determines that doing so is in the "best interest of such student," but no more than 2 percent of all students in a division could enroll.

The school would be tuition-free to all students, but comes with a $275,000 initial start up cost in Fiscal Year 2018 under the General Assembly-approved budget.

The state share of the per-pupil funding provided to each division would be transferred to the virtual school"

This was the basis it seems for the VEA determined effort for two years to keep the "Virtual School Board" from happening. The state share of the per student funding to local jurisdictions would be impacted if such a board were established and create an entity that very well may have been beyond its lobbying control.

So when Virginia parents look to Richmond for answers in terms of the circumstance the Commonwealth education system faces now with no in-person schooling to start the school year and the majority of school systems having to implement "virtual learning" understand that Virginia has been here before. Richmond had the opportunity not once but twice in 2016 and 2017 to get a jump start on such virtual learning for students and the VEA and Governor Terry McAuliffe(D) failed them.

Jonathan Scott

Guest Contributor

The Real Division of the Virginia GOP: Senate Bill 868

No single bill in the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session represents the growing division within the Virginia Republican Party than Senate Bill 868.

The Republican Party of Virginia is quickly approaching a cross roads that will forever shape the Party for a generation or more. There has been little examination by Republican Leadership in Richmond to address the factors that contributed to the loss of the majority in the General Assembly after holding it for almost three decades. Media outlets took the lead on the easy analysis regarding last November in terms of turnout claimed to have delivered the Virginia Democrats its new majority in both the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate.

The deeper analysis speaks to the contributing factors that thus far the Republican Party of Virginia has been unwilling to either accept or refuses to address with its messaging. In fairness, the issue is not across the board within the elected ranks of the Party but a divide exists that is being exasperated by the social conservative elements continual displeasure with the fiscal conservatives who have little interest in elevating social issues to the top of the platform. The social conservative messaging while have appeal to a significant percentage of the Party has not broaden the recruitment of Republican candidates especially in Northern Virginia. The policy positions of the social conservative wing of the Party are not align with the growing population of Northern Virginia where Republicans no longer hold a single seat in areas where they once dominated especially in the House of Delegates. For example, there is not a single seat in the General Assembly held by a single Republican representing any district from Fairfax County. Fairfax is the largest locality in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

In 2019, the Republican Party failed to attract, recruit and run candidates in over thirty races across the Commonwealth. This would be a hard enough issue to face moving forward but with the greater divisions growing within the Party along ideological lines it very well could boil over to disaster for the Virginia GOP in 2021. In 2021, seats in the House of Delegates will be back on the ballot along with the Governor's race in Virginia. The Republican nominee to run for Governor very well could have a direct impact on all the down ballot races.

The growing trends demonstrate the registering of younger voters especially in suburban areas. Indications from the Democratic Primary on Super Tuesday show that more and more younger voters are engaged at a time when the Virginia Republican Party is becoming older and more rural where frankly the populations do not compare to the higher density urban areas where Democratic candidates are dominating. These fact translates to a muddy picture for future statewide races for Republican candidates without broad support from the electorate and that includes younger families.

Virginia population is continuing to climb and will approach nine million in the coming decades. The majority of the population increase is coming in Northern Virginia where Republicans are already losing support. Support that now is said to have fallen below 30% for the first time in over forty years within the region. The demographics of the region that many  believe ultimately will determine all statewide races moving forward is changing. The region is becoming much more diverse than every before.

By 2030 every single "Baby Boomer" in Virginia will be 65 years old or older. The largest and fastest growing ethnic population in Northern Virginia is Asian followed by the Hispanic population. In Fairfax County alone the immigrant population is exploding. The Asian American population now represents 19.3% and the Hispanic American population represents 16.4% in Fairfax County far exceeding the African American population.

Fairfax, Loudoun and Arlington are some of the wealthiest counties in all of America yet the Republican messaging is now not resonating. Localities with medium incomes that now have reached two times the national average continue to vote Democratic. Is the Republican Party of Virginia incapable of appealing to these voters? Is the Party trying to appeal to them with its messaging? Or have elements within the Party turned voters off with the so called "principled" positions that have deep traditional ties to the moral majority of previous political eras?

If the messaging regarding immigrants and other demographics within our country are any indication than there appears to be a true lack of understanding and leadership from the Republican Party of Virginia regarding the future political landscape of Virginia. If the "Conservative" rank and file want to continue their efforts to politically alienate Virginia voters the direct result certainly will be a continuation of the statewide defeats during general election ballot boxes.

Today while the majority of the GOP appears willing to put the safety and welfare of Virginians before politics and support Governor Northam regarding the pandemic shutdown, the opportunists within the Party are attempting to rile up the conservative base with rhetoric that totally paints the Party as a whole as dysfunctional. While this may rally people to causes of course and raise the level of certain politicians it also will create a bitter taste for most Virginians who do not believe that the shutdown is someone being orchestrated as an assault of religion across the Commonwealth.

These attempts further reinforce the controversial positions that the conservative wing of the Republican Party of Virginia have taken in recent years. Last year it was a concerted effort to condemn immigrants. Conservatives failed to craft a consistent message regarding "illegal" or "unlawfully present" aliens but rather came across attacking all immigrants in Virginia while demonstrating support for border wall security.

During the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session, Social Conservative leaders within the Virginia GOP decided to in effect support discrimination. That will come as a shock to many within the Party but the actions of the minority within the Party will forever characterize the entire Party during upcoming elections. The history of the Republican Party and its fight for civil rights and that legacy continues to be undermined by votes taken by the social conservative wing of the Party. How could social conservatives break with the Republican leadership on such a crucial issue in Virginia and one that the majority of Virginian support?

Senate Bill 868 was proposed to address " unlawful discrimination in public accommodations and employment in the Virginia Human Rights Act. Currently, under the Act there is no cause of action for discrimination in public accommodations, and the only causes of action for discrimination in employment are for (i) unlawful discharge on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, or childbirth or related medical conditions including lactation by employers employing more than five but fewer than 15 persons and (ii) unlawful discharge on the basis of age by employers employing more than five but fewer than 20 persons. The bill allows the causes of action to be pursued privately by the aggrieved person or, in certain circumstances, by the Attorney General. Before a civil cause of action may be brought in a court of the Commonwealth, an aggrieved individual must file a complaint with the Division of Human Rights of the Department of Law, participate in an administrative process, and receive a notice of his right to commence a civil action. The bill prohibits discrimination in public and private employment on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. The bill also codifies for state and local government employment the current prohibitions on discrimination in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, age, marital status, disability, or status as a veteran. Additionally, the bill (a) prohibits discrimination in public accommodations on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran; (b) prohibits discrimination in credit on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, disability, and status as a veteran; and (c) adds discrimination on the basis of an individual's sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran as an unlawful housing practice."

The bill clearly is designed to prevent discrimination in Virginia with regard to housing, public accommodation , and employment on basis of sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, national origin, and even veteran status. How could any Republican not support such protections from discrimination?

Does the Republican Party really want to take the position that Virginia families with children that identify with a certain gender or transgender or a particular sexual orientation should grow up in a Virginia where their civil rights are meaningless? That they have to tell their children as they grow up that in Virginia they can be discriminated against or worse are not protected? Do those who claim to be taking the "principled" position of support for discrimination really think that Virginians are going to accept their position as anything other than bigotry? At the same time these very same Republicans reject the Equal Rights Amendment, they fail to either understand or comprehend the optics of these positions upon younger families throughout Virginia.

The following Republicans supported Senate Bill 868 which passed the General Assembly:
Cosgrove, Dunnavant, Hanger, Kiggans, Norment, Vogel--

The following Republicans voted against Senate Bill 868:
Chafin, Chase, DeSteph, McDougle, Newman, Obenshain, Peake, Pillion, Reeves, Ruff, Stanley, Stuart, Suetterlein

Should the Republican Party of Virginia wish to run on a voting record of supporting discrimination against the very populations that are growing in Virginia that is the message that is being sent loud and clear with policy position being taken in the Assembly.

Much of governance is compromise. What has been displayed in recent years in Richmond by Republican lawmakers is an unwillingness for many to compromise. This inability some argue cost the Republican Party the majority in the General Assembly. Virginians have been moving in the opposite direction and the demographics moving forward in Virginia warrant a new message to attract supporters not detract them.

The 2021 Assembly and Governor's race provide a critical opportunity to articulate a new Republican message for Virginians; ALL Virginians.

The Real Uncertainty: The Future of Virginia's Bond Ratings

The Coronavirus 2020 shutdown ordered by Governor Ralph Northam (D) continues in the Commonwealth of Virginia with very little push back from the leaders in the Virginia General Assembly. Virginia continues to feel the effects of an "essential business only" Executive Order by Northam directly impacting every locality in the Commonwealth of Virginia and the underlying businesses in those localities that support them and provide the necessary revenue required for them to perform government services at the local level.

While so many questions remain,  the biggest one is why has the Governor nor any member of the General Assembly sought to address the evolutionary impact of this shutdown by calling for a summit or leadership round table meeting to address the direct impacts on small business and local and state government alike?

Where is the true leadership being demonstrated to take Virginia out of this crisis financially? Other than suspending the implementation of the new budget, what has been advanced as anything remotely appearing as a  bipartisan solution to come to the aid of Virginians?

Both the Commonwealth and local governments derive much of its operating revenues from consumer spending and the taxes that are derived from such activity. The Commonwealth requires "sales taxes" while many local governments require "food taxes" and other taxes joined with the Commonwealth to fund government services. As a result of lost revenue, small business operators will not make tax obligations nor continue to employ Virginians thus eliminating "payroll taxes". Transportation tolls (road taxes) have all but dried up as a result of the shutdown as well and with so few Virginians on the roads with "stay at home" orders the revenue generated from the "gas tax" has fallen substantially.

Why has their not been an economic team assemble to address how Virginia will come out of this shutdown now anticipated to be June or even July? Where are the plans to address the shortfalls experienced at the local level which desperately requires revenue to sustain itself. Revenue that Governor Northam is currently denying them with his executive orders.

The biggest question than no one in the Assembly is raising is what will be the impacts of the shutdown on the bonds issued by the Commonwealth and the ratings levels that these bonds had in late 2019 compared to what they will be at the end of this year. If those ratings decline and in all likelihood they will across the board in many states as well as local governments throughout Virginia, the capacity to borrow and the costs of borrowing will only increase thus costing the Commonwealth millions more than ever anticipated.


"Bonds are used in the Commonwealth of Virginia to finance the costs of long term capital improvements throughout the state. The Commonwealth does not use bonds to close budget gaps or fix cash flow problems. Virginia bonds are primarily used for new construction and improvements at our institutions of higher education, transportation and port facilities, schools and state park and correctional facilities. Investing in Virginia bonds supports these endeavors, and interest paid to bond holders is exempt from Virginia income taxation, and in most cases, federal income taxation.

The Commonwealth's general obligation bonds are currently rated AAA/Aaa/AAA by Fitch, Moody's and Standard and Poor's rating agencies respectively. Rating agencies focus on several key factors in assessing a state's credit quality: control of debt burden, economic vitality/diversity, fiscal performance, and administrative capabilities. Most of the Commonwealth’s appropriation supported bond programs, which require an annual appropriation for debt service, are rated one notch below the general obligation bonds at AA+/Aa1/AA+. This would include bonds issued by certain state authorities, such as the Virginia Public Building Authority and the Virginia College Building Authority" (Virginia Treasury, Virginia.gov)

The following is a typical rating scale for bonds issued by government entities:

Aaa	Obligations rated Aaa are judged to be of the highest quality, subject to the lowest level of credit risk.
Aa	Obligations rated Aa are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low credit risk.
A	Obligations rated A are judged to be upper-medium grade and are subject to low credit risk.
Baa	Obligations rated Baa are judged to be medium-grade and subject to moderate credit risk and as such may possess certain speculative characteristics.
Ba	Obligations rated Ba are judged to be speculative and are subject to substantial credit risk.
B	Obligations rated B are considered speculative and are subject to high credit risk.
Caa	Obligations rated Caa are judged to be speculative of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk.
Ca	Obligations rated Ca are highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery of principal and interest.
C	Obligations rated C are the lowest rated and are typically in default, with little prospect for recovery of principal or interest.

This above scale happens to be for the reputable Moody's rating service.

Virginia Performs, originally developed by the Council on Virginia's Future (2004-2017), was a performance leadership and accountability system within the Virginia state government whose goal was to evaluate government financial performances and outcomes in order to inspire and support Virginians toward healthier lives and strong and resilient families. It basically evaluated the government independently.

Virginia Performs took the data and demonstrated how government was impacting the lives of Virginians and most especially the quality of life in Virginia. It focuses on all the aspects of government from education, work force, transportation to finance. If a role or function of government was performed than Virginia Performs examined the outcomes.

Today, where is the true oversight coming from regarding the actions that the Governor or the General Assembly are implementing?

Where is there an economic adviser summit being called for by Governor Northam or the Republican leadership in Richmond?

The Council of Virginia's Future existed from 2004-2017. It began with a vision to guide the future taking into account responsible economic growth, quality of life, good government and all well educated electorate seeking to shape the future of Virginia in a dedicated, positive manner and direction.

"Virginia Performs" performed an essential role in informing Virginians as to the financial health of the Commonwealth of Virginia and provided a website as part of the Virginia.Gov site to dissimilate information to Virginians regarding State finances.

Virginia Performs however was "sunset" on July 1, 2017. This was done while the Republicans in Virginia controlled the majority of seats in the Virginia General Assembly in Richmond. This begs the question now whether this was in fact in the best interest of the Commonwealth.

A state's bond rating influences how much taxpayer money the state can save by securing competitive loans; it also serves as a measure of a state's financial and administrative status. Virginia's AAA bond rating, the best rating possible, is a reflection of the confidence placed in the Commonwealth's fiscal health.

"Virginia's bond rating allows it to borrow money at the most competitive rates available. Having a good credit rating means Virginia can save millions of taxpayer dollars in interest payments when it finances debt, such as borrowing for construction costs. With less interest to pay, Virginia's resources can be used where needed, and the state can maintain its favorable tax rates for citizens and industries.

Bond ratings are also a measure of a state's financial reputation. Finance professionals conduct a rigorous examination of a state's fiscal management practices over a significant period of time and express their level of confidence in that state’s ability to safely meet its scheduled interest and principal repayments. A bond rating of AAA is highest (best), and D is lowest (worst). A high bond rating makes the state's bonds more attractive to investors.

Note: A bond is an investment instrument through which an investor loans money to a public or private entity in return for earning interest. Typically, the interest a bond issuer must pay the purchaser is higher when the risk that the issuer will not be able to repay the loan is greater. Three major rating firms conduct research and set a rating based on their assessment of the risk that the loan will not be repaid as scheduled. This rating then influences the amount of interest the bond issuer must pay the investor" (Virginia Performs 2017)

A variety of factors can influence a bond rating, including:

• The amount of debt a state holds in relation to the size and health of its overall economy.
• A state's long-term financial management practices, including whether it meets its interest and principal repayments on time and has a back-up plan to make sure it can meet its obligations.
• Changing economic conditions that result in lower state revenues.
• Inaccurate forecasting that fails to anticipate revenue shortfall.

Virginia's bond rating is the responsibility of its governmental leadership. The executive and legislative branches must cooperate to ensure that Virginia's practices are sound by:

• Planning strategically.
• Independently studying problem areas and recommending sound improvement strategies.
• Accurately forecasting expenditures and revenues.
• Borrowing prudently.
• Objectively monitoring fiscal processes and procedures.

No one is talking about the impact this shutdown will have long term on Virginia financials and in effect its bond ratings. This fact should scare every Virginian because as ratings on bonds fall it is historically significant that taxes rises on citizens both at the state and local levels.

J.Scott

The 2020 Democratic Miscalculation Regarding the Minority Vote

In the wake of the Vice President Biden victory in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary, the Democrats appeared posed to make the same miscalculation they did in 2016 with regard to the Hillary Clinton campaign prospects of the minority vote delivering her the Presidency.

In 2016 Democrats generated all kinds of excuses regarding the Clinton loss. Most are fully aware of the Russian hoax advanced by Congressional Democrats but that two year long political disaster was merely masking the reality that Democrats and the media that are aligned with them refuse to face.

Democrats have long depended upon the African-American vote and continue to use this voting block as a significant messaging component regarding elections. In all likelihood Vice President Joe Biden will likely be forced by the establishment to opt for an African American woman to be his running mate. This is of course is being foreshadowed already  by the fact that Democratic media has been building the narrative around South Carolina's  Jim Clyburn's endorsement.

The notion that Rep, Jim Clyborn's (D-SC-6) endorsement has even been linked to Biden winning the Virginia Democratic Primary. This notion is highly misplaced. Biden had been polling higher in Virginia than the others lone before the endorsement and in fact the development that pushed Biden over 50% in Virginia had more to do with the Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out just days before the Super Tuesday and endorsing Biden. Mayor Pete had been projected to take about a dozen delegates in Virginia before his withdrawal from the race who never polled highly with minorities. In fact, the support for Biden  by minorities in Virginia was already baked into the polling for Biden weeks before Super Tuesday.

While the Democrats have been in a bitter primary race, Donald Trump has been growing and expanding his support especially with minorities. In 2016 Trump earned 8% of the African American vote which was greater than both John McCain and Mitt Romney Presidential runs. Trump has been reaching out for the minority vote over the last year and the reports and polling being advanced by the leftist media simply does not represent the reality on the ground. Recent rallies by the Trump campaign have witnessed growing number of minorities at a time when Politico has reported under performing with black voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/24/blackpac-poll-democrats-117243

The fact is the current metrics demonstrated that Trump is poised to double his 2016 percentage of support from minorities. Hillary Clinton while winning the overall minority vote percentage wise did not see the same number come to the polls as President Obama did in 2008 or 2012. There is no reason to expect that blacks will return to the polls in 2020 at the levels of 2008 or 2012 either and frankly very well may come in less than 2016.

The biggest issue facing the Democrats and one they are not even addressing with their campaign narratives is while they keep targeting a declining black voter block they are largely ignoring the growing Hispanic block. The Hispanic voter turnout has increased by one percent each and every election cycle since 2000. The block has increased three percent turnout since President Bush won in 2004. In 2016 the overall Hispanic turnout was 11% versus the black voter blocks 12%. The black voting block has been greater than the Hispanic one in every election since 2000 however this appears likely to change in 2020.

The Hispanic vote in 2020 will surpass that of the African-American  voting block for the first time in American political history.

The Democrats are not even addressing this trend at all during their primary. In Texas on Super Tuesday some of these trends are revealed in truth that demonstrate some real division in the Democrat camp. 3 out of 5 black voters in Texas supported Biden while only 2 out 5 Hispanics supported Sanders which aided him in his victory by offsetting Sanders Hispanic support in the state. Biden won overwhelmingly in the older demographic while Sanders won the significant younger voting block. Biden only defeated Sanders by about three percent overall based largely on the black vote which represents just a fifth of the voting turnout in Texas. There has been very little outreach  y Biden campaign as of yet in truth to Hispanics while the Trump campaign in Texas has been working for months on building a ground game there.

Trump earned 1.8 million votes in his primary which eclipsed the top six Democrats combined in the Democratic Primary and a large number of his supporters came from the growing Hispanic voting  block in the Texas.

Consider some historic metrics over the past twenty years.

2000 the overall black vote was 10% of voter turnout while Hispanic was 7%
2004 the overall black vote was 11% of voter turnout while Hispanic was 8%
2008 the overall black vote was 13% of the voter turnout while Hispanic was 9%
2012 the overall black vote was 13% of the voter turnout while Hispanic was 10%
2016 the overall black vote declined to 12% while the Hispanic vote rose to 11%

I predict the black voter turnout in 2020 to decline to 11% overall whereas the Hispanic vote to continue its upward trend to 12%. The Hispanic block has also witnessed the larger new voter registration efforts ever undertaken by Republican campaigns before with dedicated programs in large Hispanic areas of the country.

The Trump campaign is also opening many targeted offices for the purposes of attracting more of the black vote than ever before for a Republican. Trump has delivered record employment for both voting blocks as well as major criminal justice reform. The community opportunity zones being implemented have been supported by many black leaders as well.

It is not inconceivable to see Trump earn somewhere between 13-15% of the overall black vote and raise his performance with the Hispanic vote to 35-38% from earning 28% in 2016 based on the current polling and approval ratings of the President.

Much of course will depend on whether Democrats nominate Vice President Biden or Bernie Sanders but it cannot be overstated that the fluidity in places like Texas and Florida is real. In 2004 President Bush earned 13% of the black vote and in Texas 16%. Bush also earned 14% of the black vote in North Carolina. If Trump secures that rate of support he will handily win all three of those states in 2020.

So for the Democrats to overly concentrate on and keep extending the narrative post Super Tuesday regarding the "black vote" it will once again be a total miscalculation by the Democrat National Committee which thus far has proved they are way behind the Trump campaign in 2020 in terms of activism and engagement.

Roper Center for Public Opinion Research:
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016