The Distancing of Corey Stewart: The Only Path to Victory

The Republican Party of Virginia is at a crossroads.

The Republicans find the coalitions that were created decades ago showing signs of wear and some have argued that the very foundation is crumbling. The loss of the majority in both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly crystallized this very point as many Republicans stayed home from the polls in a critical election year to determine control of government in Virginia.

The coalition that delivered so many victories for the Republican Party of Virginia has been one consisting of fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, libertarians and Republicans which many now describe as "liberal" Republicans. The last major victory for the coalition was the election of Governor Bob McDonnell in 2009 however there were signs years before that the coalition was being held together by some of the best and oldest Virginia conservative politicians. Deliberate and careful not to turn the party too far right as to move the Virginia center and independent vote to the center left.

This is of course exactly what happened once before in 2005 with the election of Democrat Tim Kaine  formerly Lt. Governor of Virginia and Mayor of Richmond City when the Republicans nominated Terry Kilgore as their candidate for Governor. Many Virginia Republicans moved left and supported Kaine whose message at the time appeared more moderate than even Governor Mark Warner's views who was elected Governor in 2001 defeating Mark Early.

Governor McDonnell proved to be the perfect political mix for Virginians within the coalition and his election in 2009 saw very little cross over voting on the part of Republicans. Governor McDonnell, a Virginia moderate in ever since, defeated Democrat-Conservative Creigh Deeds earning over 58% of the vote. No Governor in the 1997 - 2017 period earned a higher percentage of the vote than Bob McDonnell and yet the Republican Party of Virginia has ignored most of the lessons of the 2009 election. Though the Democrats have controlled the Governorship ever since McDonnell left office the State GOP leadership has remained relatively the same and many have been highly critical of the fact it is not a true supporter of President Trump.

In fact, President Trump lost Virginia in 2016 as did former Presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney and many attribute that to the fact that the Republican leadership did not truly support his candidacy and were in truth supporters of Jeb Bush(R) in the Republican primary. One year after Virginia supported President Obama for President and turning Virginia blue electorally for the first time in decades, Republican Bob McDonnell cleaned Creigh Deed's clock in 2009 winning with the highest margin (58%) even surpassing Jim Gilmore's 55% in 1997.

The election of 2009 demonstrated the manner in which a Virginia statewide campaign must be managed as opposed to the statewide campaign run by Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart ran for Senator. In losing in 2012, George Allen (R) earned 46.96% of the vote and in 2014 Ed Gillespie earned 48.34% but in 2017 in his bid for U.S. Senate Corey Stewart earned just 41% of the vote while Tim Kaine earned 57% increasing his voter count by almost six percentage points since his initial 2012 election won over George Allen (R).

How could Virginia Republicans go from the election of 2009 in which Governor Bob McDonnell won so handily over Creigh Deeds a rural, pro gun (at the time) Democrat with 58.63% of the vote to electing Democrats Tim Kaine (Senator) 52.87% in 2012, Terry McAuliffe (Governor) 47.74% in 2014 , Mark Warner (Senator) 49.15% in 2014 and re elect Tim Kaine (Senator) with 57% in 2017 as well as elect Ralph Northam to Governor with 53.90% in 2017?

The simple answer is nominating candidates like Corey Stewart. There are even some today who see Stewart as a "leader" in the Virginia conservative movement but his results in the 2017 election demonstrate just how far his ideological views are from most Virginians. Stewart ceded between eight to ten points away in his election in large part because he ignored the very underpinnings of the coalition that was keeping the Republican Party relevant in Virginia. The majority of Republicans in the Assembly did not share Stewart's "native" views, especially those Republicans whom had seen their support decline due to redistricting over the years in places like Northern Virginia where today no Republican holds office in the House of Delegates, Virginia Senate or House of Representatives where constituents reside in Fairfax County.

Corey Stewart fundamentally set back the Republican Party of Virginia a decade and as demographics of the Commonwealth change in the coming years it may take another decade to overcome him and his messaging.

The 8th, 10th, and 11th Congressional in Northern Virginia seats are all held by Democrats. Stewart is from Prince William County and served on its Board of Supervisors for over a decade and yet his voice failed to resonate with Virginians living in the very he served. Stewart lost to Tim Kaine (D) in his own county by a 65-33% margin in the area of Virginia that should have known Stewart best. Stewart lost Loudoun County 63-34% and Fairfax County 71-27 and in nearby Arlington and Alexandria Stewart topped out at about 20%. Stewart lost significantly in suburban areas like Henrico County and Chesterfield County as well as Virginia Beach.

In Fairfax County, which is the largest locality in Virginia has (17) seats in the House of Delegates and (9) seats in the Virginia Senate ALL held by Democrats. Not a single seat is held by a Virginia Republican and is a direct result of the post 2013 period in Virginia where the coalition that comprises the Party is crumbling.

Often there will be arguments that people like Sarvis, Redpath, Hyra, Waters and Potts are reasons why the Republicans lost elections. Their participation created three candidate races that many argue hurt Republican candidates but these assertions miss the greater point here and that is that these candidates were the expression from within the Republican Party itself of the crumbling taking place of the foundation that had once provided Republicans with victory. Sarvis gets the most criticism because in 2014 many argue his 2.43% cost Ed Gillespie a victory over Mark Warner. Warner won the Senate race in 2014 with 49.15%.

Yet where is it required for Libertarians in the coalition to support the Republican nominees they feel do not represent their value of liberty, ethics and freedom? Republicans have dismissed the views of Libertarians to such an extent that now the Libertarian Party of Virginia is growing its ranks. Republicans took advantage of the fact they could rely on the Libertarian vote because the Libertarian Party of Virginia does not always run candidates in every race and often get their votes when there is no official Libertarian candidate on the ballot. The fact that Sarvis earned 6.52% in a bid for Governor in 2013 and 2.43% in 2014 for Senate should have foreshadowed the coming reality for the State GOP. Many have further condemned Sarvis for the Ken Cuccinelli's loss in the race for Governor in 2013 where he earned 45.22% and Governor Terry McAuliffe earned 47.74% while Sarvis pulled in an historic 6.52% for a Libertarian in a statewide race.

Why the Republican leadership did not address the issue before them remains a mystery. The Libertarian ranks continue to grow, the Stewart faction of the Party continues to alienate voters and now you see the leadership distance itself from "maverick" Republican leaders like State Senator Amanda Chase (R) VA-11. Chase no longer caucuses with the Republican leadership which strip her of committee assignments of any relevance but has determined to run for Virginia Governor in 2021.

The State GOP has a real identity crisis on its hands now that has been building for over a decade in truth. Its messaging is completely inept given the current political landscape in Virginia. It continues to wither from within its own ranks as the coalition falls apart. One issue that has fueled this trend is the "gun sanctuary" movement that has swept the Commonwealth since November 2019. This movement brings Libertarian, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Conservatives together forming a roughly about a thirty percent block of the Republican Party. Senator Amanda Chase has been a vocal proponent of the movement while the majority of establishment Republicans have remained silent. Not only has this silence not gone unnoticed, it is fueling a rejection of the Liberal Republicanism that permeates the State GOP today. Some Republicans in the Assembly have actually gone along with various proposals counter to the Constitution and State Leadership has done little to address any of these issues with clear, concise leadership.

The identity crisis has spilled over into the once "conservative" media and blogosphere in Virginia where once Conservative pages no longer represent conservatism. Pages like Bearing Drift that claim to be conservative but in truth are now more Liberal Republicans who rarely support President Trump or The Republican Standard whose variety of conservatism is highly questionable given its closer alignment with the extreme views of the alt right especially in the areas of immigration similar to the Bull Elephant. These pages are less concerned with the Constitution in truth let alone personal liberty or freedom and where as The Bull Elephant makes a claim to being libertarian news as well as conservative it in no way represents fundamental libertarian values or ethics.

In 2020 the truth is that Republican Party of Virginia has no clear leader or voice. There appears to be little effort outside of the grassroots that are taking it upon themselves to mobilize from Republican leadership to address 2021 and House of delegate races let alone building a bridge within the coalition to ensure unity in the 2021 Governor's race.

What is clear is the State GOP must reject the "Stewart" and new advocate former conservative commentator Michelle Malkin who has been rejected my many conservative groups like Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) over her continued xenophobic assertions joining the "alt right" movement. Candidates like Senator Amanda Freeman Chase had better recognize that embracing that element will only detract from votes in a general election and ensure a Democratic victory once again. Chase would be wise to distance herself from that extremism all together going into the nominating process in 2021.

The campaign for Governor in 2021 must be issue-centric and focused on the areas of opportunity that exists that all Virginians can get behind solving. Examining the Bob McDonnell campaign of 2009 and heeding those lessons would be wise for any Republican nominee. If a candidate goes down that dark political road of social norming or messaging perceived as hateful or angry directed at groups like immigrants as in the case of the Stewart "alt right" fringes one thing is certain; the Democrats will win yet another statewide race in the Commonwealth of Virginia and more and more Libertarians, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Patriots will in fact "social distance" themselves from the Republican Party itself.

What Are We Learning From COVID-19?

First and foremost there is no denying the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. The recent revision by the media is frankly disturbing and mere political engineering on their own part to satisfy its own narratives. The fact remains and is unchanged China is responsible for the pandemic.

That said however does not excuse the fact that the pandemic is exposing the ugly truth that politicians (other than retired Rep. Ron Paul) have hid from Americans for decades. The fact that the politicians permitted the wholesale relocation of manufacturing of virtually all of our prescription drugs offshore and mostly to China.

You may have heard Virginia politicians clamor about prescription drug pricing reform like Rep. Abigail Spanberger from the VA07 who has made this issue a focal point of her tenure in Washington the last two years but has she ever acknowledged the fact that these drugs are not even manufactured here? No. In fact, in a recent town hall with constituents earlier this year she avoided the very question raised within the context of healthcare reform.

Six months ago if you conducted a poll there is no doubt that the majority would have no knowledge that China in fact was producing the majority of our prescription drugs. Even the very ones that American may desperately need in the midst of China shuttering factories in response to it own pandemic within its country.

In America, we are seeing a dedicated fear campaign and this cannot be understated. This campaign is set to set the stage that those seeking to increase the power of government can use to implement even more controls on society at the expense of freedom. Freedom of movement whether travel, attending a conference, a wedding or attending church services. The government has sought to institute measures like school closures and business closures which have in themselves done more to create even more fear resulting to strains of on the supply chain systems which often themselves originate in China. For example, how much of the goods sold on Amazon are manufactured in China?

The politicians have long ignored informing the public to the truth regarding China. It has not been since the election of Trump has China even been center stage with regard to trade. Now we are all beginning to see why the imbalance that Trump has highlighted is so significant.

When this crisis passes the question remains exactly what steps Congress will take to address China. The Democrats have been unwilling to do so for two decades and there is little thus far to make anyone believe they are capable of doing anything significant to address China instead they want to offer more bailouts. They will support stimulus of course as mere smoke and mirrors but will refuse to address the real problem that is America's dependence on China.

We are being told that we are not properly set up for pandemics and that somehow the Trump administration is to blame. Not unlike the same attacks blaming George W. Bush for 9/11  but that simplistic approach is mere political propaganda. The fact is the CDC has a budget well over 7 billion and in the the post Swine Flu pandemic of 2010 we have no revelations as to how much Obama really focused or dedicated in this area after more than 12,000 Americans died from H1N1 (Swine Flu).

The media refuses to report the truth regarding the Swine Flu pandemic. The truth is that the Obama Administration refused to acknowledge the pandemic as a national emergency almost six months after the CDC declared a public health emergency. The media is not concerned with informing the public as it should regarding how the Swine Flu was handled and how this pandemic is being handled. The fact that we are experiencing shortages of ventilators and respirators is not merely Trumps failure but the entire governments.

We have seen enough pandemics to know the realities we could face with them and yet government has ignored funding for hospital infrastructure in lieu of healthcare programs increasing access but not care.

We need to start examining how we got here and why we are here and who is taking advantage of this crisis and fleecing tax payers all across the country. The Democrats so focused on impeachment and then the Senate trial refused to even acknowledge the threat regarding what was being reported in China as early as December 2019. These same people want us to be reassured they have our best interests.

Monumental Betrayal: Virginia History A Thing of the Past

The betrayers of history.

That is in truth in what Virginia Democrats are doing. Why bother teaching history in schools anymore if the comments made by elected officials during this debate are what they truly believe. The Virginia War Memorials across the Commonwealth are not the real target by Virginia Progressives. Rather it is Virginia's history itself.

State Senator Locke called the history and the statues "stupid". Does Locke feel that way about all statues? What if at some point the other side of aisle in the future determines statues of others are "stupid". Or that a time comes when a majority says no more "Black History Month" or no more State Holidays for any individual of historical significance. What if fifty years from now Virginia is so removed from the Civil Rights movement that its actors are treated in the same light as figures from the Revolution or Civil War periods?

What is the prediction is true and the shifting of demographics as a direct result of immigration places in power new paradigms who will not identify with any of this history in truth. Not the Revolution , Civil War or any part of it because their ancestors were not even in America.

Virginia Democrats simply are extending a culture war that in the end all Virginian -like the hallowed ground of Civil War Virginia- every Virginian will lose.

It is ironic that the Virginia Democrats on the one hand would never support the removal of history as it pertains to the Civil Rights era or events like the Holocaust ----you see that would offend a constituency that votes Democratic 70% in America historically --- but they have little problem pushing for the removal of Virginia historical monuments they deem to be "stupid".

That becomes the new qualifier. Something deemed "stupid" by enough people can be removed.

Virtually every county in Virginia has a statue honoring those Virginians who lost their lives during the Civil War. Even in Richmond, Va General A.P. Hill's monument sits atop his grave site in the Northside. Does the city plan to remove Hill's body as well?

It is clear that the true hate is real. They claim that the monuments represent "hate" and are "stupid" but the truth is the real hate is on display this week on the floor of the Virginia General Assembly. A group of officials who turned a blind eye to the racism displayed by its own leadership in 2019 wants to deflect their true betrayal to Virginians onto monuments over one hundred years old.

Sen. Locke must be looking forward to a "Monumentless Ave" in Richmond. Progressives likely will celebrate and schedule a demolition event as the Lee and Jackson monuments fall. What they fail to realize we will not be losing monuments but in truth a part of all of us. Virginia has much to be proud of. Maybe nothing greater that overcoming our Civil War past though many want to keep reliving it. Senator Locke and others benefit from reliving it over and over. It creates divisions and that is the politics that is the emodiment of their real goals.

State Senator Mamie Locke (D)

Contact Information

district02@senate.virginia.gov

Legislative Staff

Theressa Parker; Chase Putney; Nia Saunders

Session Office

Pocahontas Building
Room No: E510
Senate of Virginia
P. O. Box 396
Richmond, VA 23218
Phone: (804) 698-7502
Fax: (804) 698-7651

Email

district02@senate.virginia.gov

District Office

P.O. Box 9048
Hampton, VA 23670
Phone: (757) 825-5880
Fax: (757) 825-7327

The 2020 Democratic Miscalculation Regarding the Minority Vote

In the wake of the Vice President Biden victory in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary, the Democrats appeared posed to make the same miscalculation they did in 2016 with regard to the Hillary Clinton campaign prospects of the minority vote delivering her the Presidency.

In 2016 Democrats generated all kinds of excuses regarding the Clinton loss. Most are fully aware of the Russian hoax advanced by Congressional Democrats but that two year long political disaster was merely masking the reality that Democrats and the media that are aligned with them refuse to face.

Democrats have long depended upon the African-American vote and continue to use this voting block as a significant messaging component regarding elections. In all likelihood Vice President Joe Biden will likely be forced by the establishment to opt for an African American woman to be his running mate. This is of course is being foreshadowed already  by the fact that Democratic media has been building the narrative around South Carolina's  Jim Clyburn's endorsement.

The notion that Rep, Jim Clyborn's (D-SC-6) endorsement has even been linked to Biden winning the Virginia Democratic Primary. This notion is highly misplaced. Biden had been polling higher in Virginia than the others lone before the endorsement and in fact the development that pushed Biden over 50% in Virginia had more to do with the Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out just days before the Super Tuesday and endorsing Biden. Mayor Pete had been projected to take about a dozen delegates in Virginia before his withdrawal from the race who never polled highly with minorities. In fact, the support for Biden  by minorities in Virginia was already baked into the polling for Biden weeks before Super Tuesday.

While the Democrats have been in a bitter primary race, Donald Trump has been growing and expanding his support especially with minorities. In 2016 Trump earned 8% of the African American vote which was greater than both John McCain and Mitt Romney Presidential runs. Trump has been reaching out for the minority vote over the last year and the reports and polling being advanced by the leftist media simply does not represent the reality on the ground. Recent rallies by the Trump campaign have witnessed growing number of minorities at a time when Politico has reported under performing with black voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/24/blackpac-poll-democrats-117243

The fact is the current metrics demonstrated that Trump is poised to double his 2016 percentage of support from minorities. Hillary Clinton while winning the overall minority vote percentage wise did not see the same number come to the polls as President Obama did in 2008 or 2012. There is no reason to expect that blacks will return to the polls in 2020 at the levels of 2008 or 2012 either and frankly very well may come in less than 2016.

The biggest issue facing the Democrats and one they are not even addressing with their campaign narratives is while they keep targeting a declining black voter block they are largely ignoring the growing Hispanic block. The Hispanic voter turnout has increased by one percent each and every election cycle since 2000. The block has increased three percent turnout since President Bush won in 2004. In 2016 the overall Hispanic turnout was 11% versus the black voter blocks 12%. The black voting block has been greater than the Hispanic one in every election since 2000 however this appears likely to change in 2020.

The Hispanic vote in 2020 will surpass that of the African-American  voting block for the first time in American political history.

The Democrats are not even addressing this trend at all during their primary. In Texas on Super Tuesday some of these trends are revealed in truth that demonstrate some real division in the Democrat camp. 3 out of 5 black voters in Texas supported Biden while only 2 out 5 Hispanics supported Sanders which aided him in his victory by offsetting Sanders Hispanic support in the state. Biden won overwhelmingly in the older demographic while Sanders won the significant younger voting block. Biden only defeated Sanders by about three percent overall based largely on the black vote which represents just a fifth of the voting turnout in Texas. There has been very little outreach  y Biden campaign as of yet in truth to Hispanics while the Trump campaign in Texas has been working for months on building a ground game there.

Trump earned 1.8 million votes in his primary which eclipsed the top six Democrats combined in the Democratic Primary and a large number of his supporters came from the growing Hispanic voting  block in the Texas.

Consider some historic metrics over the past twenty years.

2000 the overall black vote was 10% of voter turnout while Hispanic was 7%
2004 the overall black vote was 11% of voter turnout while Hispanic was 8%
2008 the overall black vote was 13% of the voter turnout while Hispanic was 9%
2012 the overall black vote was 13% of the voter turnout while Hispanic was 10%
2016 the overall black vote declined to 12% while the Hispanic vote rose to 11%

I predict the black voter turnout in 2020 to decline to 11% overall whereas the Hispanic vote to continue its upward trend to 12%. The Hispanic block has also witnessed the larger new voter registration efforts ever undertaken by Republican campaigns before with dedicated programs in large Hispanic areas of the country.

The Trump campaign is also opening many targeted offices for the purposes of attracting more of the black vote than ever before for a Republican. Trump has delivered record employment for both voting blocks as well as major criminal justice reform. The community opportunity zones being implemented have been supported by many black leaders as well.

It is not inconceivable to see Trump earn somewhere between 13-15% of the overall black vote and raise his performance with the Hispanic vote to 35-38% from earning 28% in 2016 based on the current polling and approval ratings of the President.

Much of course will depend on whether Democrats nominate Vice President Biden or Bernie Sanders but it cannot be overstated that the fluidity in places like Texas and Florida is real. In 2004 President Bush earned 13% of the black vote and in Texas 16%. Bush also earned 14% of the black vote in North Carolina. If Trump secures that rate of support he will handily win all three of those states in 2020.

So for the Democrats to overly concentrate on and keep extending the narrative post Super Tuesday regarding the "black vote" it will once again be a total miscalculation by the Democrat National Committee which thus far has proved they are way behind the Trump campaign in 2020 in terms of activism and engagement.

Roper Center for Public Opinion Research:
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016