The Distancing of Corey Stewart: The Only Path to Victory

The Republican Party of Virginia is at a crossroads.

The Republicans find the coalitions that were created decades ago showing signs of wear and some have argued that the very foundation is crumbling. The loss of the majority in both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly crystallized this very point as many Republicans stayed home from the polls in a critical election year to determine control of government in Virginia.

The coalition that delivered so many victories for the Republican Party of Virginia has been one consisting of fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, libertarians and Republicans which many now describe as "liberal" Republicans. The last major victory for the coalition was the election of Governor Bob McDonnell in 2009 however there were signs years before that the coalition was being held together by some of the best and oldest Virginia conservative politicians. Deliberate and careful not to turn the party too far right as to move the Virginia center and independent vote to the center left.

This is of course exactly what happened once before in 2005 with the election of Democrat Tim Kaine  formerly Lt. Governor of Virginia and Mayor of Richmond City when the Republicans nominated Terry Kilgore as their candidate for Governor. Many Virginia Republicans moved left and supported Kaine whose message at the time appeared more moderate than even Governor Mark Warner's views who was elected Governor in 2001 defeating Mark Early.

Governor McDonnell proved to be the perfect political mix for Virginians within the coalition and his election in 2009 saw very little cross over voting on the part of Republicans. Governor McDonnell, a Virginia moderate in ever since, defeated Democrat-Conservative Creigh Deeds earning over 58% of the vote. No Governor in the 1997 - 2017 period earned a higher percentage of the vote than Bob McDonnell and yet the Republican Party of Virginia has ignored most of the lessons of the 2009 election. Though the Democrats have controlled the Governorship ever since McDonnell left office the State GOP leadership has remained relatively the same and many have been highly critical of the fact it is not a true supporter of President Trump.

In fact, President Trump lost Virginia in 2016 as did former Presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney and many attribute that to the fact that the Republican leadership did not truly support his candidacy and were in truth supporters of Jeb Bush(R) in the Republican primary. One year after Virginia supported President Obama for President and turning Virginia blue electorally for the first time in decades, Republican Bob McDonnell cleaned Creigh Deed's clock in 2009 winning with the highest margin (58%) even surpassing Jim Gilmore's 55% in 1997.

The election of 2009 demonstrated the manner in which a Virginia statewide campaign must be managed as opposed to the statewide campaign run by Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart ran for Senator. In losing in 2012, George Allen (R) earned 46.96% of the vote and in 2014 Ed Gillespie earned 48.34% but in 2017 in his bid for U.S. Senate Corey Stewart earned just 41% of the vote while Tim Kaine earned 57% increasing his voter count by almost six percentage points since his initial 2012 election won over George Allen (R).

How could Virginia Republicans go from the election of 2009 in which Governor Bob McDonnell won so handily over Creigh Deeds a rural, pro gun (at the time) Democrat with 58.63% of the vote to electing Democrats Tim Kaine (Senator) 52.87% in 2012, Terry McAuliffe (Governor) 47.74% in 2014 , Mark Warner (Senator) 49.15% in 2014 and re elect Tim Kaine (Senator) with 57% in 2017 as well as elect Ralph Northam to Governor with 53.90% in 2017?

The simple answer is nominating candidates like Corey Stewart. There are even some today who see Stewart as a "leader" in the Virginia conservative movement but his results in the 2017 election demonstrate just how far his ideological views are from most Virginians. Stewart ceded between eight to ten points away in his election in large part because he ignored the very underpinnings of the coalition that was keeping the Republican Party relevant in Virginia. The majority of Republicans in the Assembly did not share Stewart's "native" views, especially those Republicans whom had seen their support decline due to redistricting over the years in places like Northern Virginia where today no Republican holds office in the House of Delegates, Virginia Senate or House of Representatives where constituents reside in Fairfax County.

Corey Stewart fundamentally set back the Republican Party of Virginia a decade and as demographics of the Commonwealth change in the coming years it may take another decade to overcome him and his messaging.

The 8th, 10th, and 11th Congressional in Northern Virginia seats are all held by Democrats. Stewart is from Prince William County and served on its Board of Supervisors for over a decade and yet his voice failed to resonate with Virginians living in the very he served. Stewart lost to Tim Kaine (D) in his own county by a 65-33% margin in the area of Virginia that should have known Stewart best. Stewart lost Loudoun County 63-34% and Fairfax County 71-27 and in nearby Arlington and Alexandria Stewart topped out at about 20%. Stewart lost significantly in suburban areas like Henrico County and Chesterfield County as well as Virginia Beach.

In Fairfax County, which is the largest locality in Virginia has (17) seats in the House of Delegates and (9) seats in the Virginia Senate ALL held by Democrats. Not a single seat is held by a Virginia Republican and is a direct result of the post 2013 period in Virginia where the coalition that comprises the Party is crumbling.

Often there will be arguments that people like Sarvis, Redpath, Hyra, Waters and Potts are reasons why the Republicans lost elections. Their participation created three candidate races that many argue hurt Republican candidates but these assertions miss the greater point here and that is that these candidates were the expression from within the Republican Party itself of the crumbling taking place of the foundation that had once provided Republicans with victory. Sarvis gets the most criticism because in 2014 many argue his 2.43% cost Ed Gillespie a victory over Mark Warner. Warner won the Senate race in 2014 with 49.15%.

Yet where is it required for Libertarians in the coalition to support the Republican nominees they feel do not represent their value of liberty, ethics and freedom? Republicans have dismissed the views of Libertarians to such an extent that now the Libertarian Party of Virginia is growing its ranks. Republicans took advantage of the fact they could rely on the Libertarian vote because the Libertarian Party of Virginia does not always run candidates in every race and often get their votes when there is no official Libertarian candidate on the ballot. The fact that Sarvis earned 6.52% in a bid for Governor in 2013 and 2.43% in 2014 for Senate should have foreshadowed the coming reality for the State GOP. Many have further condemned Sarvis for the Ken Cuccinelli's loss in the race for Governor in 2013 where he earned 45.22% and Governor Terry McAuliffe earned 47.74% while Sarvis pulled in an historic 6.52% for a Libertarian in a statewide race.

Why the Republican leadership did not address the issue before them remains a mystery. The Libertarian ranks continue to grow, the Stewart faction of the Party continues to alienate voters and now you see the leadership distance itself from "maverick" Republican leaders like State Senator Amanda Chase (R) VA-11. Chase no longer caucuses with the Republican leadership which strip her of committee assignments of any relevance but has determined to run for Virginia Governor in 2021.

The State GOP has a real identity crisis on its hands now that has been building for over a decade in truth. Its messaging is completely inept given the current political landscape in Virginia. It continues to wither from within its own ranks as the coalition falls apart. One issue that has fueled this trend is the "gun sanctuary" movement that has swept the Commonwealth since November 2019. This movement brings Libertarian, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Conservatives together forming a roughly about a thirty percent block of the Republican Party. Senator Amanda Chase has been a vocal proponent of the movement while the majority of establishment Republicans have remained silent. Not only has this silence not gone unnoticed, it is fueling a rejection of the Liberal Republicanism that permeates the State GOP today. Some Republicans in the Assembly have actually gone along with various proposals counter to the Constitution and State Leadership has done little to address any of these issues with clear, concise leadership.

The identity crisis has spilled over into the once "conservative" media and blogosphere in Virginia where once Conservative pages no longer represent conservatism. Pages like Bearing Drift that claim to be conservative but in truth are now more Liberal Republicans who rarely support President Trump or The Republican Standard whose variety of conservatism is highly questionable given its closer alignment with the extreme views of the alt right especially in the areas of immigration similar to the Bull Elephant. These pages are less concerned with the Constitution in truth let alone personal liberty or freedom and where as The Bull Elephant makes a claim to being libertarian news as well as conservative it in no way represents fundamental libertarian values or ethics.

In 2020 the truth is that Republican Party of Virginia has no clear leader or voice. There appears to be little effort outside of the grassroots that are taking it upon themselves to mobilize from Republican leadership to address 2021 and House of delegate races let alone building a bridge within the coalition to ensure unity in the 2021 Governor's race.

What is clear is the State GOP must reject the "Stewart" and new advocate former conservative commentator Michelle Malkin who has been rejected my many conservative groups like Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) over her continued xenophobic assertions joining the "alt right" movement. Candidates like Senator Amanda Freeman Chase had better recognize that embracing that element will only detract from votes in a general election and ensure a Democratic victory once again. Chase would be wise to distance herself from that extremism all together going into the nominating process in 2021.

The campaign for Governor in 2021 must be issue-centric and focused on the areas of opportunity that exists that all Virginians can get behind solving. Examining the Bob McDonnell campaign of 2009 and heeding those lessons would be wise for any Republican nominee. If a candidate goes down that dark political road of social norming or messaging perceived as hateful or angry directed at groups like immigrants as in the case of the Stewart "alt right" fringes one thing is certain; the Democrats will win yet another statewide race in the Commonwealth of Virginia and more and more Libertarians, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Patriots will in fact "social distance" themselves from the Republican Party itself.