New "Back The Blue" PAC Launched in Virginia: Delegate Jason Miyares (R)

 

As a direct result of the Virginia Progressive wing of the Democratic Party of Virginia assault on law enforcement in the name of "social justice", Delegate Jason Miyares (VA-82) who represents the former seat held by State Senator Bill Desteph (R) in Virginia Beach City has formed the Back The Blue PAC. Miyares won re-election in 2019 by almost 20% in a year when Virginia Democrats took majority in the House of Delegates.

Website: www.backtheblueva.com

The Virginia Democrats appear to have handed the Republican a gift for 2021 with its unreasonable assault on law enforcement which could only be described as anti-community. 

On the Chris Saxman radio cast "Virginia Free" which airs daily on Facebook and on the radio, Delegate Miyares communicated the goals set for the Back The Blue PAC and supporting those candidates in 2021 and beyond that support law enforcement and common sense reforms not what the Virginia Democrats have introduced.

Miyares stated some questions her has asked constituents regarding the proposals advanced and supported by Governor Northam.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/october/headline-861097-en.html?fbclid=IwAR1JjCiRAvTe1v0tPP7vwzjBkFPv9cpcyKcj8eVVjM2XQG4bwVDb3RsR2I0

A few of Miyares questions:

"Do you feel more safe ending the mandatory reporting requirement of sexual violence in schools to law enforcement?"

"Do you feel more safe with release of violent offenders?"

"Do you feel more safe with assaults on police as misdemeanors not felonies?"

"Do you feel more safe with Parole Board letting out those sentenced to life in prison without parole?"

Other areas also raised is the Virginia Democrats desire to END mandatory minimums for sentencing. This is one thing that should shock all Virginians. These minimums apply to all Virginians equally without regard to race, sex, creed, religion, gender or sexual orientation. If fact these minimum sentencing guidelines promote EQUAL JUSTICE under the law for offenders. These sentencing guidelines are fixed and do not take into account ones wealth, status or even whether they can hire a high priced lawyer.

The Virginia Democrats are clearly placing SOCIAL JUSTICE over EQUAL JUSTICE.

Can State Senator Amanda Chase (I-R) "Deliver" Chesterfield County in VA-7?

The election is seven days away and it is still asking questions.

The polling has shifted in many races throughout the country but none more than in the VA-5 and VA-7. While many political rating groups have moved VA-05 to "toss up" today after being solidly Republican going into 2020, the majority of the focus in Virginia has been on the Congressional race in the VA-07 where Delegate Nick Freitas (R) is challenging incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D).

Rep. Abigail Spanberger has raised almost 8 million dollars for her re-election campaign and has outpaced Delegate Freitas virtually two to one. Consider that in the VA-05 Bob Good (R)  has raised just 1.1 million and Dr. Cameron Webb (D) has raised 4.6 million. Freitas has raised 3.1 million as of October 14, 2020 reporting.

Many understand that the race in the VA-07 simply comes down to Henrico County and Chesterfield County. While there are ten counties in the VA-07, only two could be really be described as "suburban" counties versus "rural" and with that comes population density. Both Henrico and Chesterfield historically have been very conservative in terms of turnout however things began to shift within the last decade if the voting metrics are evaluated. Henrico's shift to the center and ultimately left of center many attribute to President Trump but it also began as a direct result of the turmoil within the Virginia GOP with the Tea Party movement that many in suburban precincts rejected.

While Democrats have virtually swept races in the House of Delegates in Henrico, the GOP managed to hold the State Senate seat  (VA-12) in the western portion of the county. Chesterfield County could only hold the Virginia Senate seat in VA-11 while losing the VA-10. Chesterfield remains mostly conservative on the face of things in terms of seats held from its local government to the State House but the margins have been narrowing.

No district illustrates this as much as the seat held by State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (VA-11). Chase was elected in 2015 overwhelmingly after defeating Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary to win the nomination. Chase ran for the most part as a "Tea Party" candidate against what she called an "establishment" Republican in Senator Martin. Chase's entry into politics followed the Tea Party efforts to unseat Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA07) and the nomination of David Brat. Brat would go on and win the Congressional seat representing the Virginia Seventh. Chase claims to have been an integral part of that Brat victory and would win her own race for Virginia Senate 63.74% to 36.26% in 2015. Net +27.48.

Just like Henrico experienced a shift in the subsequent years post Tea Party and the election of President Trump so to has Chesterfield. The shift in Chesterfield differs only in the outcomes of many races where most Republicans have held on to seats or won them in very close races. Historically, it was not uncommon for Republicans for statewide office to win Chesterfield by +20 points or more.

In 2019 State Senator Chase faced her first challenger as she sought re-election. This race was quite different than the race in 2015. Chase transformed her campaign style to mirror much of President Trump's style which she has continued today in her campaign for Governor. Trump won Chesterfield with 48.5 to 46.2 over Hillary Clinton in 2016 however in 2018 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) defeated Rep. David Brat (R) 55.52 to 42.58% in the county.

How can it be explained that Spanberger outperformed Clinton by +9 points? Consider this. State Senator Chase won re-election in 2019 against Amanda Pohl (D). Pohl raised the Democratic support from 36.26% in 2015 to 45.26 resulting in roughly the same percentage gain as Spanberger's over Clinton's performance. What is interesting and should be rather concerning for Republicans in the Virginia Seventh is that Pohl with much less funding than her fellow Democratic candidates in 2019 that resulted in the Democrats securing both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates managed to take Chase's margin of victory in 2015 of +27.48 down to just +9.  The race resulted in Chase winning 54.51% and Pohl 45.26%.

Any evaluation of next weeks race for the Congressional seat in the VA-07 must factor in the trending elements of the voting metrics and demographics that exist on the ground in Chesterfield. Spanberger has already proven she can win over suburban voters having won both Chesterfield and Henrico in 2018. Spanberger has successfully wage a pro-business campaign in light of what is happening in Richmond and Washington and has great appeal to women voters.The question remains whether Delegate Nick Freitas (R) can take back some of the margin in the suburbs that Spanberger earned that thrust her to victory. Spanberger lost every rural county in 2018 yet still won election.

Enter State Senator Amanda Chase.

Chase has been campaigning throughout Virginia for eight months for the 2021 Gubernatorial race in Virginia. Chesterfield is obviously Chase's home county and is the only Republican official representing Chesterfield in the Virginia Senate. Chase withdrew from the GOP Senate Caucus as well as her own local GOP Committee in 2019 and is actually more of an independent in the Virginia Senate. Chase is determined to "deliver" Chesterfield to Delegate Nick Freitas (R). Chase recently attended an event in the county in support of Nick Freitas where Senator Ted Cruz (R) and Rand Paul (R) were also both in attendance.

There is no argument that Chesterfield County is vital to any hope the GOP has in regaining the VA-07 seat in Congress. Another loss in Chesterfield like 2018 does not bode well for State Senator Amanda Chase and may illustrate she does not have enough real political weight to pull Freitas to victory in her own county.

While many feel that Chase is determined to "deliver" Chesterfield, it appears that the majority of her events coming up the week before the election are not focused on getting the vote out for Delegate Nick Freitas in Chesterfield or Henrico which are critical to his campaign. One would think that this would be a priority given her commitment to the campaign and her endorsement.

The fact is it is very difficult to unseat an incumbent. The race in the VA-07 will in all likelihood be very close given the increases in voter turnout in the rural areas this cycle but the wild card will be new voter registrations in the suburban localities where over 217,000 voters cast ballots in 2018 out of a total of roughly 345,000 for the whole district.

Some may think that 2018 was an outlier. That Spanberger was simply part of the "blue wave" in 2018 that took the House of Representatives. Many think this because Trump won the VA-07 in 2016 with 51% of the vote and the VA-07 has historically been conservative. Many forget the impact of redistricting on the VA-07 and the loss of solidly conservative precincts in Hanover County. 

To understand the shift underway, one has to examine the actual voting metrics:

In 2016 the following was the turnout for the Presidential race in the localities that will determine this years election:

Virginia 7th District Election Metrics:

Presidential Race 2016

2016- Trump (R) 51.14%  Clinton (D) 43.30%   

Chesterfield County-  53,763 Republican   52,887 Democrat

Henrico County -        44,557 Republican    54,740  Democrat

2018 VA-07 Congressional

2018 -Spanberger (D) 50.34%   Brat 48.40%

Chesterfield County- 50,278 Republican  60,897 Democrat

Henrico County---    43,684 Republican  63,892  Democrat

This examination illustrates the changes on the ground in voting metric that have happened at the polls on election day from 2016 to 2018. The Democrats appear to either be turning out voters, generating new voters or convincing voters to cross over to the Democratic Party. While the Republicans have either remained in line with previous year cycles or declined in turnout at the polls.

Many of stated that the given its a Presidential Election cycle that this should benefit the Republicans yet this dismisses the turnout that the Democrats have sustained in off year cycles who are surely expected to turnout again next Tuesday.

If State Senator Chase intends to "deliver" Chesterfield County to Delegate Nick Freitas, Chase should cancel every single event scheduled this week and concentrate solely on raising the turnout in Chesterfield County in support of Freitas because the trending metrics suggest that the Republicans will need every single vote.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott  

            

Denver Riggleman-- The New Face of the Virginia Center

 In the last two years Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) VA-05 has been one of the most productive servants in the Virginia Congressional Delegation in the House of Representatives in Congress.  Rep. Riggleman and Rep. Rob Wiittman (R) VA-01 have an ability to reach consenus and work in so many bipartisan efforts where they can find common ground  on issues impacting Virginians all across the Commonwealth with Democrats.

Rep. Riggleman is very outspoken on the issues and never shies away from confronting elements in both political parties that he deems on the wrong side of issues or a threat to the founding doctrines of the Republic. This of course makes Riggleman a target for both sides especially on social media who seek to use him as a rock to break their own views against.

There is a great interaction in the movie "Braveheart" where Robert the Bruce is speaking with William Wallace and states :

"If you make enemies on both sides of the border, you will end up dead" and William Wallace responds "We all end up dead; its just a question of how or why"

This is really the story of Rep. Denver Riggleman (R)) venture into the sphere of Virginia politics. The truth is Republicans continue to lsoe in Virginia similarly as the clans of Scotland because the clans would not stand together just like today in Virginia where the warring "clans" or "wings" of the Virginia GOP can't  unite. No more was this more evident than in the VA-05 in 2020. A district that appears to have a large contingent of Never Trumpers than any other GOP controlled Congressional district in Virginia whose allegiance appears more closely aligned with Senator Red Cruz (R).

Riggleman is an outspoken limited government conservative who believes that the individual should be free to engage in the opportunities provided within a free society and a functioning democracy with limited involvement by the government or its powers. At his core Riggleman is a free thinker and could aptly be described as more of a Libertarian Republican than any other elected official in the Virginia Congressional Delegation. Having himself served in the U.S Airforce for fifteen years and the intelligence community as well as operating a small craft distillery business in Virginia. Riggleman worked vigorously to deregulate the distillery industry in Virginia. Furthermore, Riggleman has a firm grasp of the various dynamics that impact both domestic and foreign policy. Even though the outspoken Riggleman has his own voice he still maintained a 93.9% voting record in line with President Trump while serving in Congress. 

While many have taken to social media in recent weeks to attempt to discredit Rep. Denver Riggleman after his loss in his re-election bid during the nomination process last summer it is important to note that Riggleman had the full support of President Trump which did not help him in one of the most pro-Trump Congressional districts in Virginia. After the nomination of Bob Good through some rather nefarious actions in the VA-05 nominating process, Trump of course flipped his position on Riggleman like so often Trump does. Keep in mind, Riggleman had conservative approval rating of about 94% the last two years representing the VA-05. The battle raged in the VA-05 all summer and regarding Riggleman and appears to have nothing to do with policy or votes rather it has to do with the fact many have made it personal based on things that frankly are totally irrelevant or at least should be in the context of performing the duties of office. Trump recent attacks on Riggleman are nothing more than the fact Trump has always had a "winners and losers" mentality. Remember the "Apprentice"?Trump stating that Riggleman lost his re-election bid for not being "Trump enough" is simply not born out by the facts yet none the less Trump is known for jettisoning anyone who moves from his winners consideration to losers and the fact remains Riggleman lost.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/us/politics/denver-riggleman-virginia-primary-bob-good.html

Everyone knows of course "how" Riggleman lost. The VA-05 nominating process in 2019/20 was plagued with corruption. Committee members were taking payouts while they worked behind the scenes to unseat their own Congressman. This is not the role of a district committee in truth and the fact is it very well may ultimately lead to the Republicans losing the seat in Congress to Dr. Cameron Webb (D). The fact remains the committee was successful in removing someone with broader appeal in the general electorate that attracted support from libertarians, moderates, conservatives and even "blue dog" Democrats replacing him with a far right "biblical red" conservative in Bob Good. A candidate that has not denounced the alt right or QAnon going into an election less than two weeks away that appears now to have moved from "solid red" or "safe seat" to now "toss up". 

https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/nonpartisan-cook-political-report-declares-virginias-5th-district-race-a-toss-up/article_eb370edd-96cd-5d79-ab1f-834692b6a367.html

Its ironic that as the Good campaign attempts to attract support from the extreme right of the Virginia GOP, Rep. Denver Riggleman has been working to expose the truth with regard to some of these groups than apparently even President Trump is not fully versed on. Recently, Riggleman introduced bipartisan resolution condemning QAnon in Congress.  QAnon is well known as a movement that promotes unfounded conspiracy theories as truth or fact on social media that began in 2017 that are meant to undermine the public trust Americans have in their democratic institutions.

Rep. Denver Riggleman recently stated that "QAnon and the conspiracy theories it promotes are a danger and a threat that has no place in our country's politics...I condemn this movement and urge all Americans to join me in taking this step to exclude them and other extreme conspiracy theories from the national discourse."

The Combating Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy has stated that "QAnon is arguable no longer simply a fringe conspiracy theory but an ideology that has demonstrated its capacity to radicalize to violence individuals at an alarming speed".

https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-half-of-trump-supporters-believe-q-anons-imaginary-claims-124025042.html

The problem is Riggleman appears alone in his condemnations. Campaigns such as Bob Good for Congress and Amanda Freeman Chase for Governor refuse to condemn QAnon. 

Why is it that Good and Chase refuse to condemn the movement? Recently USA Today reported on a Yahoo! News poll (see above) that half of President Trump's supporters believe in QAnon. The result simply has been a fear in condemning the movement by candidates. Riggleman has never displayed such fear in terms of doing the right thing regardless of the political ramifications. Riggleman is right in his condemnation of QAnon as much as he was right to marry a gay couple in 2019 who asked the Congressman to marry them.

So while Riggleman's bipartisan resolution (H.R. 1154) to condemn QAnon passes the House of Representatives in a 370-180-1 vote. The resolution was joined by Rep. Elaine Luria (D) from the VA-02 as a co-sponsor.

It is very telling that the movement has about as much creditibility as the Russian Collusion hoax and yet candidates like Good and Chase cannot bring themselves to condemn it. It seems while Riggleman has been outspoken against far left and far right conspiracy theories that advance anarchist ideologies and anti-Semitic tropes that encourage domestic violence. I am not alone in questioning why it is both self -professed Christian "biblical red conservatives" Bob Good and Amanda Freeman Chase appear to embrace those elements on the alt right that advance some of the most anti-Semitic views and insight violence that our intelligence community and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)  have stated "very likely motivate some domestic extremists , wholly or in part, to engage in criminal or violent activity".

It really begs the question why many like Good and Chase refuse to condemn such a movement. Do they really believe that the movement is indicative of how most Virginia Republicans think? I did a recent unscientific test and reached out to about two dozen conservatives in the VA-05 and VA-11 Senatorial District that Chase represents that I am connected with on Facebook and ask them how they felt about the QAnon movement. ONLY 3 even remotely knew anything about the movement and could actually speak to its positions. These were people that I respect and know are engaged in Virginia politics. ONLY 3.

Riggleman has tapped into something that is growing especially in Virginia. Many Virginians are reaching their fill on the divisiveness that many like Amanda Freeman Chase are promoting on the campaign trails. Riggleman believes that "the vitriol and anger spewing from both sides of the political aisle, echoing around the darkest corners and caverns of the internet has led to violence and hate, divisiveness and anger". Riggleman has demonstrated and knack for pointing out what we all know to be true but have refused to admit.The extremes of both political parties have hijacked their respective parties and left the middle or centrists to reconsider the binary choice.

If you examine Rep. Denver Riggleman's actual record in Congress it is really hard to just dismiss is effectiveness to lead and to bring people together. Even after losing his re-election bid last summer, Riggleman has continued to roll up his sleeves and stay in the fight for conservatives.

This week supporters of Bob Good took to social media to condemn Riggleman for comments they deemed detrimental to their candidate and insinuated that Riggleman betrayed the GOP by meeting with Dr. Cameron Webb (D) recently but has never publicly supported Good since his nomination. Ironically, these people are the very ones who supported corrupt efforts to unseat Riggleman in the first place and now expect Riggleman to "fall in line". Clearly, these people do not know Denver Riggleman at all. The "fall in line" or "kiss the ring" mindset is not part of the Riggleman DNA. 

Good supporters were upset that Riggleman would actually speak with Dr. Webb who stopped by the Congressman's distillery in the district coupled with the fact that Riggleman stated recently he would be "open" to "considering" any candidate.  Many would likely find this dispute as petty however it is actually really indicative of the problem that the Virginia GOP faces with the selection of candidates that have been nominated in many areas of Virginia. To those like Good and Chase and their supporters "principled" means nothing more than agreeing with them.

What has a "principled conservative" become in Virginia? Is it Ted Cruz (R)? Is it President Trump? Does the Virginia GOP even know anymore? The more supporters of Good and Chase flex the more the tent shrinks and the issue of QAnon and the alt right is simply one more example of this. The very fact that many Republicans cannot publicly rebuke or condemn these movements is every bit as telling as the lefts inability to condemn Antifa. 

Senator Chase is a prime example of this bipolar approach and hypocrisy. Chase continually has condemned Antifa but refuses to condemn QAnon and embraces the alt right fringe of the party and while supporters of Good and Chase rail against Riggleman for speaking with Dr. Webb they are silent on the fact that Chase herself met with Black Lives Matter/Antifa supporters in July in Richmond. So it seems appropriate for Chase to speak with designated domestic terror groups but not appropriate for Riggleman to speak with a candidate running for Congress from the Democratic Party who happens to be an actual constituent.

Much of what we have seen in 2020 regarding these movements and the rhetoric on the campaign trail and the fact that right now the Virginia GOP faces even further decline in representation on the Congressional Delegation after next months election will create a vacuum in the center of the Virginia political spectrum that Rep. Denver Riggleman is aptly able to fill in 2021.

Riggleman is currently weighing his options come January when his term expires. There is little doubt that Riggleman will continue his honorable service to the nation and may return to the intelligence community or potentially run for Governor of Virginia in 2021. It safe to say that whatever Riggleman decides to pursue he will remain unwavered in his commitment to his values in support of our Commonwealth, the Constitution and the Republic.

Many believe that the election next month may send the Virginia GOP into an even greater tailspin than the elections of 2019. The extreme far right has lost the Virginia center. With each passing Facebook post on pages of candidates like Amanda Freeman Chase the middle is further lost. The "center" is something Chase has portrayed for eight months as "liberal Republican" or "Democrat light" totally ignoring or even attempting to speak to these Virginians who are fiscal conservatives believing in limited government, lower taxes, equal justice, equal opportunities and have little appetite for social issues. While the center may not participate heavily in conventions or local committees it does in fact come to the polls in force.

Rep. Denver Riggleman whether intentional or not is speaking right now to the Virginia center. The center understands that Republicans can still win the Virginia Executive with the right candidates not unlike Gov. Larry Hogan(R) who has won two consecutive terms in highly liberal Maryland while all statewide Republican candidates have lost in Virginia since 2013. The chances for victory double in truth if Vice President upsets President Trump as Virginia historically moves counter to the holder of the White House.

The more the far right extremists use Rep. Denver Riggleman as a rock to break their own QAnon and alt right divisiveness against the more that the Virginia GOP loses even more ground and provides the opportunity for a sea change in the Virginia political universe in 2021. Again the "clans" are divided and have yet to identity someone they can all unite behind.

No Republican can win Virginia statewide without the support of the Virginia center comprised of libertarians, moderates and independents and yet as 2021 gets closer and closer the more these voters are alienated by the far right movements that embrace xenophobic, homophobic, anti-Semitc and anti- government rhetoric.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott

Bob Good (R) attacks on Cameron Webb (D) Deemed False

 

As the Congressional races continue to push forward to next month's election there has been a massive shift to digital spending given the COVID-19 impacts on retail campaigning throughout the districts. This is particularly true in the Virginia 5th where the incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) was forced out of his seat through rather corrupt practices from within his own local GOP committee during what has been characterized as a "circus" resulting in the nomination of Bob Good (R) formerly of Liberty University.

Recently, the Good campaign appears to be scrambling over disclosures that resulted in the campaigns filings that may have not revealed certain assets owned by Good. It happens that the Good campaign appears to have failed to disclose about 250,000 in assets on state filings that appeared recently on federal paperwork filed as an amended financial disclosure form. The filing can be found here:

https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/financial-pdfs/2019/10039161.pdf

This issue comes after recent attacks launched by the Bob Good campaign against the Democratic candidate Dr. Cameron Webb (D) that claim that Webb supports defunding police and has asserted that Webb is in effect "anti-police".  Immediately following the attack, Bob Good's own record with regard to local policing came under scrutiny that demonstrated that Good while an official with Campbell County supported decreasing funding for local sheriff office on two separate instances which has been claimed to limit the effectiveness of attracting deputies to Campbell County as the pay scale is not commensurate to other Virginia localities. The Webb campaign fired back very aggressively on social media to dismiss the claims coming from the Good campaign regarding defunding.

Dr. Cameron Webb has never released any public statement regarding support of defunding police. This issue has been made a hot button issue in many Congressional races however there is some question in reality just how much impact any Congressman would have on local law enforcement funding in truth. Local law enforcement typically comes within the parameters of local government funding and allocation of funds for the either sheriff or police departments. Webb denied the claims in terms of defunding police and charged the Good campaign with yet another misleading attack on his candidacy.

Webb is the son of a former federal law enforcement officer and a large part of the Webb campaign has been criminal justice reform. Such campaigning has generated some traction in the greater Charlottesville region of the district. Webb has campaigned effectively in some conservative areas of the district through his effective connection skills with voters of both parties. Webb has given some credit to President Trump in areas like criminal justice reform but has stated that he hopes to expand on the First Step Act signed by President Trump. 

Webb has hardly thus far run a negative campaign directed at is opponent. The Good campaign however has gone negative in wake of recent polling for President Trump that can certainly impact down ballot races in Virginia. Good has to be very careful with this strategy as he is also having to deal with the fact he must heal the rift between him and Riggleman supporters. Many of Riggleman's supports are independents and Libertarian Republicans who do not subscribe to the "red biblical conservative" label that has come to be the prime attribution to Bob Good. 

These voters are very much up for grabs in the VA5 as a direct result of the VA5 GOP District Committee.

The race as it stands in early October is a "toss up". That in itself is a huge positive for Virginia Democrats given the nomination of Denver Riggleman would have certainly created a much tougher road for winning the district. Much will depend on the turnout in the Charlottesville region which is typically a pro-Democratic area. The impact of Covid-19 and the unknown campus turnout this cycle as a result at University of Virginia is a critical contributing factor in this race this cycle.

The claim regarding defunding police has been rebuked rather effectively by the Cameron Webb campaign and Webb very effectively turned the issue back on Bob Good's own record in Campbell County that otherwise many voters may never have known.

The VA5 should be lean Republican but Cameron Webb is making in roads in areas within the district which is one of the most diverse in terms of geography and one of biggest districts in the Commonwealth. It can take some five hours to travel from one end of the district to the other north to south. It is comprised of rural, small town and mid size towns as well as small cities. Many are college towns with younger voter classes.

Th wildcard in this race is Denver Riggleman. Thus far there has been no real endorsement of Good from the Riggleman camp and many believe that Riggleman plans to run for Governor of Virginia in 2021 as an "independent" given the bad blood that the corruption in the VA5 nominating process highlighted earlier this year.

The Republican Party of Virginia has since voted in support of preventing such corruption from happening again stemming from VA5 District Committee members accepting payments from the Good campaign during the nominating process and than casting votes regarding the process in which the nomination would occur.  Many claim that this corruption was born out contempt for Riggleman by some committee members for marrying a gay couple in 2019. It has been claimed that Melvin Adams and Chris Shores associated with the Virginia 5th Congressional Committee went about locating a candidate to challenge Riggleman over the issue. Adams has been reported to have made extreme homophobic comments and anti LGBTQ comments that Cameron Webb's campaign has used effectively in portraying Good as having the same core religious beliefs that are not aligned with majority of the district.

Thus far Dr. Cameron Webb has raised 1.3 million according to the Virginia Public Access Project whereas Bob Good has raised just 262,031 as of June 30, 2020.  The next campaign donations numbers should be releasing very soon.

Is the GOP in Trouble in VA-07?: Henrico County

 

Any analysis of a particular race in Virginia these days often triggers many defense mechanisms. For too long these defense mechanisms have created a situation of denial for the Virginia GOP in which there has been little acknowledgement or change in the party messaging given the changing demographics on the ground in many localities in Virginia.

An objective analysis here based not only historical voting trends, demographics, metrics but also conversations with voters on the ground in Henrico County going into next months Congressional contest in the VA-07.

The VA-07 is an historically a very conservative district in Virginia currently represented by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) elected in 2018 during to so-called "blue wave" election that was the first Congressional cycle following the election of President Trump in 2016.

The Virginia GOP is seeking to unseat Rep. Spanberger and nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) late summer to challenge her via a nominating convention. Freitas was nominated after three rounds of ballots at the convention held in Doswell, Virginia.

I respect Delegate Nick Freitas and find him to be an outstanding Delegate from Culpeper County who is in my opinion one of the best orators on the floor of the Virginia House of Delegates. While Freitas ran in 2018 for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and lost to Corey Stewart (R), I hope that the result of this election does not negatively impact the future of this rising star in the Virginia GOP. Elections always can offer surprises however this cycle is probably one of the most divisive in Virginia history since the Presidential Election of 1860.

Often it is inevitable that "down ballot" candidates can be at the mercy of the Presidential race. One recent factor with independent voters is the takeaway from the first and possibly only Presidential debate last week that many perceived as the worst in debate history.

The coming 2020 Census will certainly reveal even more changes in demographics that have occurred in the last decade in Henrico County, however what is obvious to any political analyst is the the trends on the ground in suburban areas have shifted from supporting Republicans in Virginia overwhelmingly a decade ago to now supporting Democrats in Presidential, Congressional and statewide races for the Virginia Executive.

The Virginia Seventh Congressional District offers us insight into this shift given two of the largest suburban localities in Virginia comprise the majority of voters in the district. Both Chesterfield County and Henrico County were once Republican strongholds in Virginia election history. The latter no longer can be considered a Republican stronghold given the shift in the last decade and the former may shift left as well in the coming cycle.

Understand this. 

Henrico County will determine the winner of the Congressional race in 2020 for the VA-07.

No examination of the race for the VA-07 Congressional seat can ignore what has happened in Henrico County over the last few years politically. Henrico County truly illustrates the ground that the Virginia GOP has lost in suburbia. Many pundits on the right would likely disagree but the voting metrics reveal a very distinct transformation in voting behavior in suburbs the more the Virginia GOP takes extreme positions on social issues and federal immigration policies.  The messaging remains mixed and the perception is that the Virginia GOP does not support immigrants even though the intent was to address "illegal" immigrants. Candidates like Corey Stewart and State Senator Amanda Chase have alienated many immigrants according to many residents in the VA-07.

What has contributed to this shift in voting trends?

The biggest factor is clearly the demographic change that Henrico with roughly 330,000 residents has experienced over the last decade. 

One of the changes is that there are now more women living in Henrico now representing 52%+ of the population. A population now has a growing non-white population where the Blacks represent 30%, Asians 10% and Hispanics now 7%. This constitutes an estimated 47% of the population in Henrico.

The GOP nationally is facing declines in support from women and immigrant groups. Some political analysts and firms that track such polling data have estimated that the GOP is now -34% with women and -19% with immigrant populations. Whether one agrees with such analysis or not the metrics of this are playing out at the polls and is demonstrated in the correlation in the decline of Republican support in Henrico in the last few election cycles.

Henrico by any estimation is an affluent locality. 18% of population has a post graduate degree and 52% of the population as at least some college or a college degree. These metrics represent 10% higher than the Virginia averages.

Another relevant factor in 2020 is the rising 16% of the population that is 65+. This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP and the Nick Freitas campaign because national polling is demonstrating that President Trump is losing support of seniors dramatically compared to 2016. 

One of the biggest metrics now in Henrico in terms of elections is the fact that 13.5% of the population is now "foreign born". This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP on the coat tails of the Corey Stewart 2018 campaign for U.S. Senate and the current campaign for the GOP nomination for Governor by Amanda Freeman Chase for 2021. The GOP has steadily lost support in the immigrant community since 2013 after earning a large share of it in 2009.  The majority of immigrants coming to Henrico are from Asia (55%) and Latin America (23%) followed by Europe (12%) and Africa (9%). There appears little outreach efforts thus far from the Republican Party of Virginia this cycle to appeal to the immigrant communities throughout Virginia.

The factor that appears to have not drawn virtually any messaging from the GOP and specifically the Nick Freitas campaign is that the majority of new business start-ups have come from women and "foreign born" Virginians in Henrico. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis has directly impacted many of these business yet there appears to be very little mention of how President Trump's actions have supported the business communities whether lower corporate taxes or stimulus provisions to support small business. Rep. Spanberger has leveraged thus far the actions of Congress in terms of the first stimulus to her own ends in touting support for small business.

An example of the Spanberger pitch:

"For 2 years, I’ve worked to be a strong voice in Congress on the issues that impact people’s daily lives in #VA07. -Lowering the cost of prescription drugs -Expanding broadband internet access -Recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic"

Freitas is a Army veteran and 6.3% of the Henrico population are veterans with the overwhelming majority having served in Vietnam and the Gulf War 1990's. Recent polling has demonstrated weaker support from veterans in 2020 for Trump than in 2016 and this should be a real concern as well for the Freitas campaign. Rep. Scott Taylor is experiencing the same dynamic in his challenge for his old seat in the VA-02 comprising the Virginia Beach region.

The median income for residents of Henrico is roughly 68,000. This is a factor that should play well for the Freitas campaign however there has been very little messaging regarding the Trump tax cuts thus far from the campaign that certainly benefited a majority of residents living in Henrico. Instead the majority of the messaging thus far has targeted Rep. Abigail Spanberger's (D) voting record in Congress the last two years and her alignment with some of the most liberal in the House of Representatives.

What is interesting is the continued attempted links to Speaker of House Pelosi and the Spanberger voting record and the assertion that Spanberger is not as "moderate" or "blue dog" as she campaigns compared to when she is voting in Washington appears to be an extension of similar messaging that failed Rep. David Brat (R) in 2018. Spanberger in truth does not appear to have a very "moderate" record at all however the message does not appear to resonate with many voters in the manner in which it is asserted.

Thus far the approach appears to be a strategy set on "voting against" Spanberger as opposed to "voting for" Nick Freitas. The issue with this approach in talking with voters in Henrico  is that while the Presidential election very well may be a "referendum" election on Trump, many voters do not see this Congressional election in the VA-07 as a "referendum" on Spanberger. Spanberger like Freitas is very lpersonable nd likeable figure when you speak with people whom have met both of them

I recently had the opportunity to speak with some voters from Henrico where my wife lived for a time and what is rather interesting is the amount of split voting that may occur next month among independent voters that thus far is not showing up in any polling. It is estimated that roughly 14% of voters nationally are independent voters and these voters are often less concerned with "policy" per say as many other voters. They are not partisans by any means and many have voted for Democrats as many times as Republicans. Many for example supported Trump in 2016 yet supported Democrats in 2017 for Delegates representing Henrico in the Virginia General Assembly. These very seats have all flipped the last decade to the Democrats in the county.

What has to be  (or should be) alarming to the Virginia GOP is the steep decline in support for Republican candidates in Henrico County.

Out of a population of 330,000 some 105,000 voters turned out in 2018 at the polls in the last Congressional race for the VA-07. Spanberger won Henrico County 60.96% to 36.89% over Rep. David Brat (R).

In 2016 Rep. David Brat had won the county with 50.77% of the vote but came in -14% cycle over cycle. There are some reasons of course in examining the decline in support for the GOP candidates  however not one more meaningful than redistricting. The GOP used to have the support of Hanover County precincts to the tune of 70% in the years that Rep. Eric Cantor (R) held the seat when the GOP dominated the VA-07 at the polls.

In statewide races Henrico shifted from support of statewide and national Republicans to Democratic candidates where it once supported the likes of Bob McDonnell (R) for Governor in 2009 but by 2013 had started to shift to the left at the polls. Governor Terry McAuliffe decimated Republicans in 2013 with an astounding 51.2% to 38% over Ken Cuccinelli. Subsequent candidates from the GOP have met similar fate though Brat did win in an off cycle election in 2014 with 55% of the vote. 

If we examine Rep. David Brat's performance in VA-07 after defeating Rep.Eric Cantor (R) in an historic primary with the support of the Tea Party the movement quickly fizzled out and was reabsorbed back into into the GOP much to the dismay of many within it. Thus from 2014 where Brat earned 55%  in Henrico he declined to 50.77% in 2016 and ultimately 36.89%. Overall throughout the VA-07 in 2018 Brat earned 48.40%  some 12 points better than he performed in Henrico.

What is interesting when speaking to Henrico County voters when one canvasses or speaks to residents is that there is still support for some local Republicans. State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant withheld a challenge in 2019 by Delegate Debra Rodman (D) who she defeated 50.76% to 49.06%. Much of this can be attributed to the Hanover precincts that remain in the VA-12 Senate District that no longer are part of the VA-07 Congressional. 

Dunnavant outperformed both President Trump and Rep. David Brat in heavily "red" precincts and many of them by four to six basis points.

Lets examine a few precincts that will impact the 2020 Congressional race for the GOP:

103: Glen Allen

2012 : 61.95 (Cantor) 2016 : 60.38 (Brat) 2016:  49% Trump 2018:  48.57 (Brat) 2019:  Dunnavant 54.37

302: Cedarfield

2012: 64% (Cantor)  2016: 62% (Brat)   2016: 50% (Trump)  2018: 51% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 57%

403: Derbyshire

2012: 69% (Cantor)   2016: 66% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 55% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 60%

417: Tuckahoe

2012: 72% (Cantor)   2016: 69% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 56% (Brat)  2019  Dunnavant  65%

These are heavily conservative leaning precincts and illustrate that even among these districts there have been shifts metrics wise over last decade.

Some other races to consider: Henrico supported the following-

Hillary Clinton (D) 2016- 57%

Governor Ralph Northam (D) 2017 52%

U.S Senator Tim Kaine (D) 2018 57%

Now worth consideration for supporters of the Virginia GOP to consider is that the two Republican candidates that have outperformed all other GOP candidates are:

State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R)  2019 50.76%

Jill Vogel (Lt. Governor Candidate) 2017 50%

Republicans must overcome the denial of the trends on the ground in suburbia that Henrico illustrate. The two women representing the GOP on ballots in Henrico County recently are the very two Republicans that the State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase wing of the party ( Cuccinelli, Stewart, Brat) have railed against and attempted to label as "Liberal Republicans" or  "Establishment" yet it appears these State Senators appeal to voters and know how to appeal to voters via dedicated messaging that speaks to families in the suburbs. Another is Lt. Governor Bill Bolling from Hanover that pulled in 56.29% of the vote across Virginia in 2009 and has become a target of the Chase campaign in recent weeks rehashing the 2013 race in which Bolling withdrew and AG Ken Cuccinelli supported by Chase won the nomination and ultimately lost to Governor Terry McAuliffe (D).

Given the trends on the ground and the historical metrics, the Virginia GOP and Delegate Nick Freitas appear in real trouble even in the wake of over reach by the Virginia State Legislature in the last year and an aggressive GOTV effort for GOP supporters.

I anticipate the following results next month in the VA-07 UNLESS messaging changes in the next three weeks----for example have yet to see a single Spanish ad this cycle or heard one on the radio thus far from Freitas ( if anyone has please comment below so I may locate it). 6% of the population speaks Spanish as primary language in the home in Henrico and there is a significant rising population in Spotsylvania and Chesterfield Counties. This something that Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) used effectively in 2009 yet the consultant trend in the GOP is to not spend in this area it seems the last few cycles. A correlation can be drawn directly to this lack of focus to the declining trend in Hispanic support for Virginia GOP statewide and Congressional candidates.

Important to note: 

2016 Trump won VA-07 51.14% to 43.30%

Amelia County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Chesterfield County: (113,000 voters) Spanberger

Culpeper County: (20,000 voters) Freitas

Goochland County: (13,000 voters) Freitas

Henrico County:(105,000 voters) Spanberger

Louisa County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Nottoway County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Orange County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Powhatan County; (18,000 voters) Freitas

Spotsylvania County: (38,000 voters) Freitas 

I expect Delegate Nick Freitas to win every rural locality in the VA-07 which all lean Conservative however I expect Rep. Abigail Spanberger to win re-election because she will will hold serve in both Henrico County and Chesterfield County she won in 2018. Spanberger easily wins Henrico County however Chesterfield while very tight race in 2016 between Trump and Clinton with Trump only winning the historically conservative Chesterfield by less than 1% supported Spanberger two years later in 2018 by 10 points.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott