VA-07 Election Anaysis: The More Things Change the More They Stay The Same

As the data and the metrics continue to come pouring in and the result in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District (VA-07) no longer appears in doubt, the Republican Party of Virginia should wast little time in diving into the data points that determined the election last week in favor of Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) for a second time in two years.

There should be some level of concern on the part of Republicans that should not be dismissed by the establishment interest or the political consultant class. Many Republican campaigns have used the same consultants over the course of the last decade that appear to have not read the electorate at large or the metrics on the ground especially well in suburban Virginia. There appears a widening disconnect between the GOP candidates and suburban voters, especially suburban women, minorities and "foreign born" voters.

The fact remains that the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has steadily lost the suburban vote over the last seven years. Consultants would like to lay much of this at the feet of President Trump however this is an easy out for them that often is not substantiated by the many of the metrics.

For example, in 2020 President Trump outperformed many of the Republican candidates for Congress. One rising star for the RPV is Aliscia Andrews (R) who ran in the VA-10 and managed to generated higher percentages than Trump in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties in her district. In her precincts in Prince William County, Andrews outperformed Trump by 13 points and in Fairfax County by 10 points followed by Loudoun County and Clarke County by 3 points.

Conversely, President Trump outperformed candidates like Bob Good (R) in VA-05 and Del. Nick Freitas in VA-07 in about half as many of the counties in the districts and not simply rural localities. In an election cycle where the media all but declared suburbia for the Democrats as a repudiation of Trump, not all of suburbia reflected that narrative.

Trump managed to raise his percentage in Henrico County from 36.60% in 2016 to 38.73% however Del. Nick Freitas came in under both Trump's 2020 performance as well as Rep. David Brat's 40.12% in 2018 for the seat in VA-07. Del. Freitas would lose Henrico 60.64% to 39.18 where Rep. Spanberger increased her voting percentage by 2 points from 2018. 

Spanberger also managed to raise her voting percentage in Chesterfield County just under a percent as the difference in the result resulted in the same 10 point margin in the Democrats favor. Spanberger outperformed Biden almost a point in Chesterfield and over a point in Henrico. Spanberger raised her vote count in Chesterfield County from 60,897 in 2018 to 80,161 in 2020 and in Henrico from 63,892 in 2018 to 80,421 in 2020. These two localities represent the lions share of votes cast in the VA-07.

Online surveys indicate that the one of the issues that put Delegate Nick Freitas on the defensive with suburban voters was the manner in which Spanberger used "preexisting conditions" and an "autism vote" to characterize Freitas. Spanberger raised over 4 million dollars and used these resources against Freitas in repeated ad campaigns and online media using the healthcare issues has a focal point.

Following the election in a caucus call, Rep. Spanberger stated that the Democrats "need to not ever use the term socialist or socialism ever again" and that the messaging regarding "defunding the police" nearly cost Spanberger the race in 2020. The comments illustrate the differences between Spanberger and the progressives in the Democrat Party and actually puts her at odds with many Virginia Democrats in Richmond. There is some suspicion that the Spanberger team leaked the audio from the caucus call given the team recognizes that 2022 may be in jeopardy for her if a Biden administration is directed by the progressives in Washington.

On the Republican side, many are already seeking Delegate Freitas to run again in 2022 given the tightness of the race but in evaluating the trends and metrics this may not actually be the best course of action for RPV given Freitas has now lost a U.S. Senate statewide primary and a Congressional race  within last two years.  Scott Taylor (R) sought to take back his seat lost in 2018 forgoing a U.S. Senate run and failed to win the VA-02 last week. 

In examining the House races that the GOP won in 2020, it is Republican women that seem to outperform expectations.  Two examples were winners Nicole Malliotakis (R) in NY-11 and Maria Salazar in FL-27.Given the makeup of the Virginia suburbs and the rising trends of women and minority owned businesses in suburban Richmond, the RPV needs to evaluate these metrics to ensure that any candidate has appeal to this metric.

The fact remains that any Republican nominated in the VA-07 in 2022 would likely win most of the rural districts. These voters must turnout in 2022 of course but the GOP must have a candidate that can appeal to at least 46% of the suburban electorate or the RPV to flip VA-07. How the RPV responds to a typical decline in turnout after a Presidential election will certainly be something to keep and eye on with its new Chairman in Rich Anderson.

The reason for this is that the Democrats increased its turnout but not its voting percentages compared to the Republicans. Only in Goochland and Powhatan did Spanberger raise her "rural" percentage  and it was by less than a percent. While this should concern the Democrats if the GOP can turnout voters in 2022 should Biden finally get certified as the winner, the Democrats will continue to focus on the suburban vote that has delivered Spanberger two elections in a row now. In back to back cycles, Spanberger has only won two counties out of ten in the district.

Concerning for the RPV is the following areas in "rural" Virginia that Del. Nick Freitas under performed Trump: (Trump/Freitas)

Amelia County  68.29%  (67.38)

Louisa County 60.66%  (60.07)

Nottoway County 56.89%  (55.10)

Powhatan County 71.24% (70.62)

Orange County 59.91%  (59.73%)

There is a question in terms of Democratic turnout if the election was a referendum on Trump in truth or support for Biden. Places like Louisa County which appears to be moving move with VA-05 counties in terms of trends saw an increase of about 2,500 Democratic voters over 2018  and Spanberger in 2020 outperformed Clinton by 4 points. Spanberger outperformed Clinton (34.83%) with 40.81% in 2020 adding 2,000 voters from 2016 in support for her campaign. Orange County experienced almost an identical result where Clinton earned 34.50% and Spanberger earned 40.08% in 2020. Spanberger took advantage of almost two thousand more Democratic voters over 2016 turnout for Clinton.

A positive for Delegate Freitas was he raised voting percentages in all but two counties; Henrico and Goochland.  It is important to also consider that Freitas (39.18%) under performed in terms of appeal to left leaning districts in terms of margin as State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) 2019 race performance where Dunnavant's 49.14% in Henrico helped her secure victory in a very tight election against Delegate Debra Rodman (D) 50.76% to 49.06%. Freitas did perform very well in established Republican precincts in Henrico but these could not propel him to a county victory where Spanberger won 60.64%.

The question than becomes will the RPV recognize the appeal and the criticisms such leaders as State Amanda Chase seeking the GOP nomination for Governor have launched against Dunnavant's positions though it appears they appeal to more Henrico voters than President Trump, Del.Freitas and Rep. Brat. Supporters of the GOP should also recognize the appeal that rising start Tina Ramirez may have in suburban Richmond in 2022 than Delegate Freitas or Rep. Brat have delivered. One could also argue that Senator Dunnavant (R) has more appeal to suburban voters as well historically and given the rise of Republican women and success at the polls this cannot be understated.

Suburban Turnout VA-07: 2016/2020----will leave you scratching your head

Chesterfield County:  85,045 (Trump) 65,019 (Trump) -

                                   81,074 (Clinton) 79,783 (Biden) -

Henrico County :       59,857 (Trump)  52,184 (Trump) -

                                   93,935 (Clinton) 80,032 (Biden) -

Trump lost voter support in the following counties from 2016 to 2020:

Chesterfield County 48.22% to 44.07%

Goochland County 59.73% to 58.80%

Spotsylvania County 55.25% to 54.84%

Orange County : 60.93% to 59.91%

Culpeper County: 60.08 to 59.05%

Freitas lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 (Brat) to 2020:

Henrico County 40.12% to 39.18%

Goochland County 59.58%- 58.94%

Spanberger (D) raised voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Chesterfield County: 54.09% to 55.03%

Henrico County : 58.67% to 60.64%

Powhatan County: 28.89% to 29.30%

Goochland County: 39.52% to 40.81%

Orange County: 40.07% to 40.08%

Spanberger (D) lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Amelia County: 32.87% to 32.49%

Louisa County: 40.47% to 39.73%

Spotsylvania County: 44.17% to 43.88%

Culpeper County: 40.68% to 39.98%

Nottoway County- 45.05% to 44.72%

All statistical information and voting metrics in this article come from two primary sources that Virginians can review.

1. https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/President_and_Vice_President_(CD_-_07).html

2. vpap.org/visuals/visual/presidential/

Guest Commentator

Jonathan Scott

The GOP Holds VA-05 For Now

 

It has been an intense election cycle for the Virginia 5th Congressional District. After nominating Bob Good (R) with 58.12% at one of the strangest nominating conventions in Virginia history given the pandemic, Good went on last week to defeat Dr. Cameron Webb (D) to retain the Congressional seat for the Virginia GOP.

Good had defeated beloved Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) who was elected in 2018 to represent the VA-5 in the cycle that saw the Democrats pick up seats throughout Virginia. Each of those pickups in 2018 held in 2020 for the Democrats and include VA-2, VA-7 and VA-10.

Many pollsters and media polling agencies moved VA-05 into "toss up" leading into election day however in the end the VA-5 outcome remained the same as 2018 even with increases in turnout. The key for Good appears to lied in the rural vote turnout which outpaced prior elections. Rep. Riggleman (R) had generated 53.18% in 2018 and Bob Good (R) managed to hold serve in 2020 with 52.49% overall.

However, if you evaluate the underlying metrics what is revealed is Bob Good (R) under performed President Trump in many conservative leaning areas of the district. Trump actually outperformed Good in left leaning areas as well like Albermarle County where Trump earned just 32.18% and in places like Nelson, Fluvanna, Greene, Madison and Prince Edward Counties.

Nelson County: 49.47 (Good) 51.65% Trump

Fluvanna County: 49.28 (Good) 51.48% Trump

Greene County: 58.78 (Good) 60.70 % Trump

Madison County: 62.80 (Good) 65.20% Trump

Prince Edward County: 46.09 (Good) 46.31% Trump

In contrast Rep. Ben Cline (R) in the VA-06 in Augusta County next door to VA-05 outperformed Trump 77.21% to 72.65%. Riggleman in 2018 also outperformed Bob Good in Albermarle County where Riggleman earned 35.26% compared to Good's 31.47. Riggleman further outperformed in Fluvanna, Madison and Nelson Counties in 2018 than Good in 2020.

This is worth noting because Riggleman and Good are very different Republicans. Riggleman is more centrist/moderate than Good who described himself during the campaign as a "biblical conservative". This district is undergoing a transition in which the Virginia GOP is going to have to compete cycle after cycle in the next decade. The same shifts to the suburban Charlottesville City areas occurred in the suburban areas of the Virginia 7th Congressional District east of VA-05.

Dr. Cameron Webb (D) raised turnout levels in areas like Charlottesville City, Danville City and Albermarle County substantially this cycle and managed to win Nelson and Fluvanna Counties won by Riggleman in 2018.  In Nelson County for example, Webb increased turnout from 3,669 (2018) to 9,179 (2020) and earned 50.09%. In Fluvanna County the turnout was raised to 15,699 in 2020 from 5,790 resulting in a flip to the Democrats with Webb generating 51.50%. Riggleman won Fluvanna County with 50.46% in 2018.

In Albemarle County which densely populated in comparison to other others of the VA-5 saw turnout raise to 63,366 in 2020 from 34,409 in 2018. Webb won Albermarle County with 68.22% roughly four points more than was earned in 2018. It is safe to say that Dr. Webb is not going away and very well may be back in 2022.

One interesting county metric is Campbell County where Bob Good served on the county board. Riggleman garnered 72.20% in Campbell County in 2018 while Good generated four points less in 2020 in his home county and turnout virtually doubled to 29,494.

Why are these metrics important?

In recent years the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has been criticized for not recognizing the demographic shift or trends in the Commonwealth. This has happened in places like Prince William County, Henrico County and Chesterfield County where Democrats are gaining seats not only in the General Assembly but also assisting the Democrats hold Congressional seats.

Ignoring these shifts and trends will result in the Virginia GOP be nothing more than a rural party. The results last week in the Commonwealth reflect a real danger to the Republican Party of Virginia in terms of the ground lost in the suburbs since the Tea Party movement almost a decade ago.

While many would never consider the VA-05 has anything but a rural district, the shifts are underway the counties outside places like Charlottesville. Thus far the Republicans are holding counties north of Charlottesville like Greene and Madison but the shifts in Albermarle and Nelson County should concern the GOP because more Virginians are moving into those areas.

Yes. Bob Good won the race in VA-05. However, the GOP must recognize that the Democrats are looking at the metrics and seeing a clear path to drawing closer and closer to flipping the VA-05 given the pattern other districts have experienced and factoring in that turnout will likely decline in 2022 without Trump on the ballot for the GOP. 

If the Democrats can maintain turnout percentages in 2022 they poise a real threat in the VA-5 unless the Commonwealth experiences redistricting plan from the newly approved commission that should be created during the next General Assembly session beginning in January 2021.

While the Republicans have held the district there is much work to be done for the 5th District Committee chaired by Melvin Adams. The most pressure could be on the GOTV committee chaired by Rick Buchanan with members Eric Brazael and Catherine Francis (RPV) but also the Ethics/Integrity committee which Eric Brazael is also a member and chaired by Nancy Rodland who secured one of the three position on the State Central Committee for the VA-05.

Due to all the circumstances that resulted in the nomination of Bob Good (R) in 2020, the VA-05 District Committee will certainly be under much more of a microscope than years past and one cannot help but wonder given the totality of the situation whether Bob Good goes unopposed in 2022 from within the GOP.

VA-5 covers part of the counties of Fauquier, Henry, and Bedford; and encompasses all of the counties of Rappahannock, Madison, Greene,  Albemarle, Nelson, Fluvanna, Buckingham, Cumberland, Appomattox, Campbell, Prince Edward, Charlotte, Lunenburg, Franklin, Pittsylvania, Halifax, Mecklenburg, and Brunswick; as well as the independent cities of Charlottesville and Danville. 

Virginia: What lies ahead?

Whether one believes the 2020 Election was fraudulent or not does not dismiss the fact that Virginia has solidly more than ever become politically a "blue" state. Those that dismiss that fact are either those that profit by not admitting as much or simply those ignoring facts.

2020 Election by Region

The Election of 2020 was what is called a "base" election. Period.

The problem in terms of Virginia for the Virginia GOP is it had to wage a two front battle throughout 2020. On one front it had to fight the surging Democratic machine and outside money has it had in 2019 but also had to deal with the "Never Trumpers" from within the Republican Party itself. Many of the latter subscribe to the notions of the Lincoln Project.

While rural Virginia turned out in 2020, so to did the urban centers that overwhelmingly support Democrats.  Trump appears to have made significant inroads with minorities in places like Norfolk and Hampton precincts in 2020 compared to 2016.

In Norfolk, Trump raised his support from 26% to 44.17% and in Hampton from 28.9% to 44.63% among voters. The question however remains whether these votes were mere "Trump" votes and not "GOP" votes and whether the Virginia GOP has the capacity to keep these votes in the upcoming election of 2021 for the Virginia Executive.

2020 Election by County/City in Virginia

What cannot be understated is Trump lost the Virginia suburbs. No path to victory exists in statewide elections without winning the suburban vote in Virginia. One glaringly concerning development for the Virginia GOP was the loss of Chesterfield County. Trump has won the county in 2016 but lost the county in 2020 but some seven points. Biden outperformed both Obama and Clinton in Chesterfield County which now mirrors Henrico County across the James River in suburban Richmond where Trump losts by some twenty nine points. This was a county formerly held by Rep. Eric Cantor (R) for over a decade until his defeat six years ago in a primary at the hands of the Tea Party.  ( See upcoming posts: "Virginia: How the Tea Party Changed Virginia?")

Virginia now is decisively "blue" in statewide elections or "popular votes".  Biden like Governor Ralph Northam (D) won overwhelmingly in Virginia and did so simply by raising the voter turnout in the very areas of the Commonwealth that the Democrats have controlled post 2013. Bidens 53.92% is virtually  identical to Northam's 53.90 in 2017. Whereas Gov. Northam (D) earned 1,409,175, V.P. Joe Biden in 2020 earned 2,377,061. That is almost 1 million more votes cast in 2020 for Biden than for Northam three years prior. One hope in 2021 for Republicans is that this level of turnout will not be sustainable in the November 2021 elections. This may not be that far fetched in truth given Hillary Clinton generated 1,981,473 in 2016 some 500,000 more votes than Northam in 2017, however the ground game and the infrastructure is more developed now than it was in 2017 for Democrats across the Commonwealth.

We have learned that the more things change the more they in fact stay the same in Virginia politics. Virginia has not supported a Republican for President since George W. Bush(2004)  and not a Republican Governor since Bob McDonnell (R) since 2009. The Congressional Delegation to Washington remains unchanged and sits 7-4 in favor of the Democrats and the Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats.

The hope for a resurgence for the Virginia GOP is the General Assembly. The Commonwealth will hold elections for the House of Delegates in 2021 which will be crucial for the GOP even more so than the Executive races that may be out of reach. Many believe that a Biden administration could open the door for the GOP in terms of next years race for Governor but much will hinge not on the Democrats but rather who the Virginia GOP actually nominates.

The Democrats claim that Trump was repudiated in Virginia last Tuesday. However, Trump did raise his vote count by almost 150,000 votes from 2016 to 2020. The Virginia GOP very well may be smart to look towards focusing on one aspect of the Trump appeal in terms of 2021 and that is his business acumen and  being an outsider. In other words, fresh new blood and not a retired from the GOP stable.

Two potential candidates that fit this strategy are Pete Synder and Glenn Youngkin. Two businessman that have been working during the pandemic to support Virginia workers and families throughout the crisis. Snyder's "Virginia 30 Day Fund" and Youngkin's "Virginia Ready" have been successful endeavors supporting the working class families of Virginia. While Snyder has some campaign experiences in Virginia, Youngkin would be a complete outsider with broad appeal to fiscal and moderate conservatives. Neither men even remotely resemble the "Trump" personality let alone would make any attempt to replicate it as others in the GOP have attempted thus far in Virginia. Other potential candidates include Delegate Kirk Cox or former State Senator Bill Carrico.

How much impact Trump will have on 2021 is still an unknown but any attempt to replicate Trump in a statewide race will be met with the same fate at the polls. The GOP requires an authentic voice to address what the Commonwealth will face in the coming years and with a budget shortfall of almost 3 billion and tax hikes almost a certainty it will be new voices that are required to attract suburban voters back into the GOP fold.

The 2021 General Assembly will loom large on the 2021 election cycle. How far the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party of Virginia yields its power will be center stage. The wing appears to be determined to go after law enforcement, gun reform, criminal sentencing reforms and a robust tax hike from sales tax to income tax. 

The biggest question today is whether the Virginia Democrats will over play their hand during the 2021 General Assembly session in Richmond.

Bob Good (R) attacks on Cameron Webb (D) Deemed False

 

As the Congressional races continue to push forward to next month's election there has been a massive shift to digital spending given the COVID-19 impacts on retail campaigning throughout the districts. This is particularly true in the Virginia 5th where the incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) was forced out of his seat through rather corrupt practices from within his own local GOP committee during what has been characterized as a "circus" resulting in the nomination of Bob Good (R) formerly of Liberty University.

Recently, the Good campaign appears to be scrambling over disclosures that resulted in the campaigns filings that may have not revealed certain assets owned by Good. It happens that the Good campaign appears to have failed to disclose about 250,000 in assets on state filings that appeared recently on federal paperwork filed as an amended financial disclosure form. The filing can be found here:

https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/financial-pdfs/2019/10039161.pdf

This issue comes after recent attacks launched by the Bob Good campaign against the Democratic candidate Dr. Cameron Webb (D) that claim that Webb supports defunding police and has asserted that Webb is in effect "anti-police".  Immediately following the attack, Bob Good's own record with regard to local policing came under scrutiny that demonstrated that Good while an official with Campbell County supported decreasing funding for local sheriff office on two separate instances which has been claimed to limit the effectiveness of attracting deputies to Campbell County as the pay scale is not commensurate to other Virginia localities. The Webb campaign fired back very aggressively on social media to dismiss the claims coming from the Good campaign regarding defunding.

Dr. Cameron Webb has never released any public statement regarding support of defunding police. This issue has been made a hot button issue in many Congressional races however there is some question in reality just how much impact any Congressman would have on local law enforcement funding in truth. Local law enforcement typically comes within the parameters of local government funding and allocation of funds for the either sheriff or police departments. Webb denied the claims in terms of defunding police and charged the Good campaign with yet another misleading attack on his candidacy.

Webb is the son of a former federal law enforcement officer and a large part of the Webb campaign has been criminal justice reform. Such campaigning has generated some traction in the greater Charlottesville region of the district. Webb has campaigned effectively in some conservative areas of the district through his effective connection skills with voters of both parties. Webb has given some credit to President Trump in areas like criminal justice reform but has stated that he hopes to expand on the First Step Act signed by President Trump. 

Webb has hardly thus far run a negative campaign directed at is opponent. The Good campaign however has gone negative in wake of recent polling for President Trump that can certainly impact down ballot races in Virginia. Good has to be very careful with this strategy as he is also having to deal with the fact he must heal the rift between him and Riggleman supporters. Many of Riggleman's supports are independents and Libertarian Republicans who do not subscribe to the "red biblical conservative" label that has come to be the prime attribution to Bob Good. 

These voters are very much up for grabs in the VA5 as a direct result of the VA5 GOP District Committee.

The race as it stands in early October is a "toss up". That in itself is a huge positive for Virginia Democrats given the nomination of Denver Riggleman would have certainly created a much tougher road for winning the district. Much will depend on the turnout in the Charlottesville region which is typically a pro-Democratic area. The impact of Covid-19 and the unknown campus turnout this cycle as a result at University of Virginia is a critical contributing factor in this race this cycle.

The claim regarding defunding police has been rebuked rather effectively by the Cameron Webb campaign and Webb very effectively turned the issue back on Bob Good's own record in Campbell County that otherwise many voters may never have known.

The VA5 should be lean Republican but Cameron Webb is making in roads in areas within the district which is one of the most diverse in terms of geography and one of biggest districts in the Commonwealth. It can take some five hours to travel from one end of the district to the other north to south. It is comprised of rural, small town and mid size towns as well as small cities. Many are college towns with younger voter classes.

Th wildcard in this race is Denver Riggleman. Thus far there has been no real endorsement of Good from the Riggleman camp and many believe that Riggleman plans to run for Governor of Virginia in 2021 as an "independent" given the bad blood that the corruption in the VA5 nominating process highlighted earlier this year.

The Republican Party of Virginia has since voted in support of preventing such corruption from happening again stemming from VA5 District Committee members accepting payments from the Good campaign during the nominating process and than casting votes regarding the process in which the nomination would occur.  Many claim that this corruption was born out contempt for Riggleman by some committee members for marrying a gay couple in 2019. It has been claimed that Melvin Adams and Chris Shores associated with the Virginia 5th Congressional Committee went about locating a candidate to challenge Riggleman over the issue. Adams has been reported to have made extreme homophobic comments and anti LGBTQ comments that Cameron Webb's campaign has used effectively in portraying Good as having the same core religious beliefs that are not aligned with majority of the district.

Thus far Dr. Cameron Webb has raised 1.3 million according to the Virginia Public Access Project whereas Bob Good has raised just 262,031 as of June 30, 2020.  The next campaign donations numbers should be releasing very soon.