It has been an intense election cycle for the Virginia 5th Congressional District. After nominating Bob Good (R) with 58.12% at one of the strangest nominating conventions in Virginia history given the pandemic, Good went on last week to defeat Dr. Cameron Webb (D) to retain the Congressional seat for the Virginia GOP.
Good had defeated beloved Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) who was elected in 2018 to represent the VA-5 in the cycle that saw the Democrats pick up seats throughout Virginia. Each of those pickups in 2018 held in 2020 for the Democrats and include VA-2, VA-7 and VA-10.
Many pollsters and media polling agencies moved VA-05 into "toss up" leading into election day however in the end the VA-5 outcome remained the same as 2018 even with increases in turnout. The key for Good appears to lied in the rural vote turnout which outpaced prior elections. Rep. Riggleman (R) had generated 53.18% in 2018 and Bob Good (R) managed to hold serve in 2020 with 52.49% overall.
However, if you evaluate the underlying metrics what is revealed is Bob Good (R) under performed President Trump in many conservative leaning areas of the district. Trump actually outperformed Good in left leaning areas as well like Albermarle County where Trump earned just 32.18% and in places like Nelson, Fluvanna, Greene, Madison and Prince Edward Counties.
Nelson County: 49.47 (Good) 51.65% Trump
Fluvanna County: 49.28 (Good) 51.48% Trump
Greene County: 58.78 (Good) 60.70 % Trump
Madison County: 62.80 (Good) 65.20% Trump
Prince Edward County: 46.09 (Good) 46.31% Trump
In contrast Rep. Ben Cline (R) in the VA-06 in Augusta County next door to VA-05 outperformed Trump 77.21% to 72.65%. Riggleman in 2018 also outperformed Bob Good in Albermarle County where Riggleman earned 35.26% compared to Good's 31.47. Riggleman further outperformed in Fluvanna, Madison and Nelson Counties in 2018 than Good in 2020.
This is worth noting because Riggleman and Good are very different Republicans. Riggleman is more centrist/moderate than Good who described himself during the campaign as a "biblical conservative". This district is undergoing a transition in which the Virginia GOP is going to have to compete cycle after cycle in the next decade. The same shifts to the suburban Charlottesville City areas occurred in the suburban areas of the Virginia 7th Congressional District east of VA-05.
Dr. Cameron Webb (D) raised turnout levels in areas like Charlottesville City, Danville City and Albermarle County substantially this cycle and managed to win Nelson and Fluvanna Counties won by Riggleman in 2018. In Nelson County for example, Webb increased turnout from 3,669 (2018) to 9,179 (2020) and earned 50.09%. In Fluvanna County the turnout was raised to 15,699 in 2020 from 5,790 resulting in a flip to the Democrats with Webb generating 51.50%. Riggleman won Fluvanna County with 50.46% in 2018.
In Albemarle County which densely populated in comparison to other others of the VA-5 saw turnout raise to 63,366 in 2020 from 34,409 in 2018. Webb won Albermarle County with 68.22% roughly four points more than was earned in 2018. It is safe to say that Dr. Webb is not going away and very well may be back in 2022.
One interesting county metric is Campbell County where Bob Good served on the county board. Riggleman garnered 72.20% in Campbell County in 2018 while Good generated four points less in 2020 in his home county and turnout virtually doubled to 29,494.
Why are these metrics important?
In recent years the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has been criticized for not recognizing the demographic shift or trends in the Commonwealth. This has happened in places like Prince William County, Henrico County and Chesterfield County where Democrats are gaining seats not only in the General Assembly but also assisting the Democrats hold Congressional seats.
Ignoring these shifts and trends will result in the Virginia GOP be nothing more than a rural party. The results last week in the Commonwealth reflect a real danger to the Republican Party of Virginia in terms of the ground lost in the suburbs since the Tea Party movement almost a decade ago.
While many would never consider the VA-05 has anything but a rural district, the shifts are underway the counties outside places like Charlottesville. Thus far the Republicans are holding counties north of Charlottesville like Greene and Madison but the shifts in Albermarle and Nelson County should concern the GOP because more Virginians are moving into those areas.
Yes. Bob Good won the race in VA-05. However, the GOP must recognize that the Democrats are looking at the metrics and seeing a clear path to drawing closer and closer to flipping the VA-05 given the pattern other districts have experienced and factoring in that turnout will likely decline in 2022 without Trump on the ballot for the GOP.
If the Democrats can maintain turnout percentages in 2022 they poise a real threat in the VA-5 unless the Commonwealth experiences redistricting plan from the newly approved commission that should be created during the next General Assembly session beginning in January 2021.
While the Republicans have held the district there is much work to be done for the 5th District Committee chaired by Melvin Adams. The most pressure could be on the GOTV committee chaired by Rick Buchanan with members Eric Brazael and Catherine Francis (RPV) but also the Ethics/Integrity committee which Eric Brazael is also a member and chaired by Nancy Rodland who secured one of the three position on the State Central Committee for the VA-05.
Due to all the circumstances that resulted in the nomination of Bob Good (R) in 2020, the VA-05 District Committee will certainly be under much more of a microscope than years past and one cannot help but wonder given the totality of the situation whether Bob Good goes unopposed in 2022 from within the GOP.
VA-5 covers part of the counties of Fauquier, Henry, and Bedford; and encompasses all of the counties of Rappahannock, Madison, Greene, Albemarle, Nelson, Fluvanna, Buckingham, Cumberland, Appomattox, Campbell, Prince Edward, Charlotte, Lunenburg, Franklin, Pittsylvania, Halifax, Mecklenburg, and Brunswick; as well as the independent cities of Charlottesville and Danville.
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