The GOP Holds VA-05 For Now

 

It has been an intense election cycle for the Virginia 5th Congressional District. After nominating Bob Good (R) with 58.12% at one of the strangest nominating conventions in Virginia history given the pandemic, Good went on last week to defeat Dr. Cameron Webb (D) to retain the Congressional seat for the Virginia GOP.

Good had defeated beloved Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) who was elected in 2018 to represent the VA-5 in the cycle that saw the Democrats pick up seats throughout Virginia. Each of those pickups in 2018 held in 2020 for the Democrats and include VA-2, VA-7 and VA-10.

Many pollsters and media polling agencies moved VA-05 into "toss up" leading into election day however in the end the VA-5 outcome remained the same as 2018 even with increases in turnout. The key for Good appears to lied in the rural vote turnout which outpaced prior elections. Rep. Riggleman (R) had generated 53.18% in 2018 and Bob Good (R) managed to hold serve in 2020 with 52.49% overall.

However, if you evaluate the underlying metrics what is revealed is Bob Good (R) under performed President Trump in many conservative leaning areas of the district. Trump actually outperformed Good in left leaning areas as well like Albermarle County where Trump earned just 32.18% and in places like Nelson, Fluvanna, Greene, Madison and Prince Edward Counties.

Nelson County: 49.47 (Good) 51.65% Trump

Fluvanna County: 49.28 (Good) 51.48% Trump

Greene County: 58.78 (Good) 60.70 % Trump

Madison County: 62.80 (Good) 65.20% Trump

Prince Edward County: 46.09 (Good) 46.31% Trump

In contrast Rep. Ben Cline (R) in the VA-06 in Augusta County next door to VA-05 outperformed Trump 77.21% to 72.65%. Riggleman in 2018 also outperformed Bob Good in Albermarle County where Riggleman earned 35.26% compared to Good's 31.47. Riggleman further outperformed in Fluvanna, Madison and Nelson Counties in 2018 than Good in 2020.

This is worth noting because Riggleman and Good are very different Republicans. Riggleman is more centrist/moderate than Good who described himself during the campaign as a "biblical conservative". This district is undergoing a transition in which the Virginia GOP is going to have to compete cycle after cycle in the next decade. The same shifts to the suburban Charlottesville City areas occurred in the suburban areas of the Virginia 7th Congressional District east of VA-05.

Dr. Cameron Webb (D) raised turnout levels in areas like Charlottesville City, Danville City and Albermarle County substantially this cycle and managed to win Nelson and Fluvanna Counties won by Riggleman in 2018.  In Nelson County for example, Webb increased turnout from 3,669 (2018) to 9,179 (2020) and earned 50.09%. In Fluvanna County the turnout was raised to 15,699 in 2020 from 5,790 resulting in a flip to the Democrats with Webb generating 51.50%. Riggleman won Fluvanna County with 50.46% in 2018.

In Albemarle County which densely populated in comparison to other others of the VA-5 saw turnout raise to 63,366 in 2020 from 34,409 in 2018. Webb won Albermarle County with 68.22% roughly four points more than was earned in 2018. It is safe to say that Dr. Webb is not going away and very well may be back in 2022.

One interesting county metric is Campbell County where Bob Good served on the county board. Riggleman garnered 72.20% in Campbell County in 2018 while Good generated four points less in 2020 in his home county and turnout virtually doubled to 29,494.

Why are these metrics important?

In recent years the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has been criticized for not recognizing the demographic shift or trends in the Commonwealth. This has happened in places like Prince William County, Henrico County and Chesterfield County where Democrats are gaining seats not only in the General Assembly but also assisting the Democrats hold Congressional seats.

Ignoring these shifts and trends will result in the Virginia GOP be nothing more than a rural party. The results last week in the Commonwealth reflect a real danger to the Republican Party of Virginia in terms of the ground lost in the suburbs since the Tea Party movement almost a decade ago.

While many would never consider the VA-05 has anything but a rural district, the shifts are underway the counties outside places like Charlottesville. Thus far the Republicans are holding counties north of Charlottesville like Greene and Madison but the shifts in Albermarle and Nelson County should concern the GOP because more Virginians are moving into those areas.

Yes. Bob Good won the race in VA-05. However, the GOP must recognize that the Democrats are looking at the metrics and seeing a clear path to drawing closer and closer to flipping the VA-05 given the pattern other districts have experienced and factoring in that turnout will likely decline in 2022 without Trump on the ballot for the GOP. 

If the Democrats can maintain turnout percentages in 2022 they poise a real threat in the VA-5 unless the Commonwealth experiences redistricting plan from the newly approved commission that should be created during the next General Assembly session beginning in January 2021.

While the Republicans have held the district there is much work to be done for the 5th District Committee chaired by Melvin Adams. The most pressure could be on the GOTV committee chaired by Rick Buchanan with members Eric Brazael and Catherine Francis (RPV) but also the Ethics/Integrity committee which Eric Brazael is also a member and chaired by Nancy Rodland who secured one of the three position on the State Central Committee for the VA-05.

Due to all the circumstances that resulted in the nomination of Bob Good (R) in 2020, the VA-05 District Committee will certainly be under much more of a microscope than years past and one cannot help but wonder given the totality of the situation whether Bob Good goes unopposed in 2022 from within the GOP.

VA-5 covers part of the counties of Fauquier, Henry, and Bedford; and encompasses all of the counties of Rappahannock, Madison, Greene,  Albemarle, Nelson, Fluvanna, Buckingham, Cumberland, Appomattox, Campbell, Prince Edward, Charlotte, Lunenburg, Franklin, Pittsylvania, Halifax, Mecklenburg, and Brunswick; as well as the independent cities of Charlottesville and Danville. 

Virginia: What lies ahead?

Whether one believes the 2020 Election was fraudulent or not does not dismiss the fact that Virginia has solidly more than ever become politically a "blue" state. Those that dismiss that fact are either those that profit by not admitting as much or simply those ignoring facts.

2020 Election by Region

The Election of 2020 was what is called a "base" election. Period.

The problem in terms of Virginia for the Virginia GOP is it had to wage a two front battle throughout 2020. On one front it had to fight the surging Democratic machine and outside money has it had in 2019 but also had to deal with the "Never Trumpers" from within the Republican Party itself. Many of the latter subscribe to the notions of the Lincoln Project.

While rural Virginia turned out in 2020, so to did the urban centers that overwhelmingly support Democrats.  Trump appears to have made significant inroads with minorities in places like Norfolk and Hampton precincts in 2020 compared to 2016.

In Norfolk, Trump raised his support from 26% to 44.17% and in Hampton from 28.9% to 44.63% among voters. The question however remains whether these votes were mere "Trump" votes and not "GOP" votes and whether the Virginia GOP has the capacity to keep these votes in the upcoming election of 2021 for the Virginia Executive.

2020 Election by County/City in Virginia

What cannot be understated is Trump lost the Virginia suburbs. No path to victory exists in statewide elections without winning the suburban vote in Virginia. One glaringly concerning development for the Virginia GOP was the loss of Chesterfield County. Trump has won the county in 2016 but lost the county in 2020 but some seven points. Biden outperformed both Obama and Clinton in Chesterfield County which now mirrors Henrico County across the James River in suburban Richmond where Trump losts by some twenty nine points. This was a county formerly held by Rep. Eric Cantor (R) for over a decade until his defeat six years ago in a primary at the hands of the Tea Party.  ( See upcoming posts: "Virginia: How the Tea Party Changed Virginia?")

Virginia now is decisively "blue" in statewide elections or "popular votes".  Biden like Governor Ralph Northam (D) won overwhelmingly in Virginia and did so simply by raising the voter turnout in the very areas of the Commonwealth that the Democrats have controlled post 2013. Bidens 53.92% is virtually  identical to Northam's 53.90 in 2017. Whereas Gov. Northam (D) earned 1,409,175, V.P. Joe Biden in 2020 earned 2,377,061. That is almost 1 million more votes cast in 2020 for Biden than for Northam three years prior. One hope in 2021 for Republicans is that this level of turnout will not be sustainable in the November 2021 elections. This may not be that far fetched in truth given Hillary Clinton generated 1,981,473 in 2016 some 500,000 more votes than Northam in 2017, however the ground game and the infrastructure is more developed now than it was in 2017 for Democrats across the Commonwealth.

We have learned that the more things change the more they in fact stay the same in Virginia politics. Virginia has not supported a Republican for President since George W. Bush(2004)  and not a Republican Governor since Bob McDonnell (R) since 2009. The Congressional Delegation to Washington remains unchanged and sits 7-4 in favor of the Democrats and the Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats.

The hope for a resurgence for the Virginia GOP is the General Assembly. The Commonwealth will hold elections for the House of Delegates in 2021 which will be crucial for the GOP even more so than the Executive races that may be out of reach. Many believe that a Biden administration could open the door for the GOP in terms of next years race for Governor but much will hinge not on the Democrats but rather who the Virginia GOP actually nominates.

The Democrats claim that Trump was repudiated in Virginia last Tuesday. However, Trump did raise his vote count by almost 150,000 votes from 2016 to 2020. The Virginia GOP very well may be smart to look towards focusing on one aspect of the Trump appeal in terms of 2021 and that is his business acumen and  being an outsider. In other words, fresh new blood and not a retired from the GOP stable.

Two potential candidates that fit this strategy are Pete Synder and Glenn Youngkin. Two businessman that have been working during the pandemic to support Virginia workers and families throughout the crisis. Snyder's "Virginia 30 Day Fund" and Youngkin's "Virginia Ready" have been successful endeavors supporting the working class families of Virginia. While Snyder has some campaign experiences in Virginia, Youngkin would be a complete outsider with broad appeal to fiscal and moderate conservatives. Neither men even remotely resemble the "Trump" personality let alone would make any attempt to replicate it as others in the GOP have attempted thus far in Virginia. Other potential candidates include Delegate Kirk Cox or former State Senator Bill Carrico.

How much impact Trump will have on 2021 is still an unknown but any attempt to replicate Trump in a statewide race will be met with the same fate at the polls. The GOP requires an authentic voice to address what the Commonwealth will face in the coming years and with a budget shortfall of almost 3 billion and tax hikes almost a certainty it will be new voices that are required to attract suburban voters back into the GOP fold.

The 2021 General Assembly will loom large on the 2021 election cycle. How far the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party of Virginia yields its power will be center stage. The wing appears to be determined to go after law enforcement, gun reform, criminal sentencing reforms and a robust tax hike from sales tax to income tax. 

The biggest question today is whether the Virginia Democrats will over play their hand during the 2021 General Assembly session in Richmond.

Denver Riggleman-- The New Face of the Virginia Center

 In the last two years Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) VA-05 has been one of the most productive servants in the Virginia Congressional Delegation in the House of Representatives in Congress.  Rep. Riggleman and Rep. Rob Wiittman (R) VA-01 have an ability to reach consenus and work in so many bipartisan efforts where they can find common ground  on issues impacting Virginians all across the Commonwealth with Democrats.

Rep. Riggleman is very outspoken on the issues and never shies away from confronting elements in both political parties that he deems on the wrong side of issues or a threat to the founding doctrines of the Republic. This of course makes Riggleman a target for both sides especially on social media who seek to use him as a rock to break their own views against.

There is a great interaction in the movie "Braveheart" where Robert the Bruce is speaking with William Wallace and states :

"If you make enemies on both sides of the border, you will end up dead" and William Wallace responds "We all end up dead; its just a question of how or why"

This is really the story of Rep. Denver Riggleman (R)) venture into the sphere of Virginia politics. The truth is Republicans continue to lsoe in Virginia similarly as the clans of Scotland because the clans would not stand together just like today in Virginia where the warring "clans" or "wings" of the Virginia GOP can't  unite. No more was this more evident than in the VA-05 in 2020. A district that appears to have a large contingent of Never Trumpers than any other GOP controlled Congressional district in Virginia whose allegiance appears more closely aligned with Senator Red Cruz (R).

Riggleman is an outspoken limited government conservative who believes that the individual should be free to engage in the opportunities provided within a free society and a functioning democracy with limited involvement by the government or its powers. At his core Riggleman is a free thinker and could aptly be described as more of a Libertarian Republican than any other elected official in the Virginia Congressional Delegation. Having himself served in the U.S Airforce for fifteen years and the intelligence community as well as operating a small craft distillery business in Virginia. Riggleman worked vigorously to deregulate the distillery industry in Virginia. Furthermore, Riggleman has a firm grasp of the various dynamics that impact both domestic and foreign policy. Even though the outspoken Riggleman has his own voice he still maintained a 93.9% voting record in line with President Trump while serving in Congress. 

While many have taken to social media in recent weeks to attempt to discredit Rep. Denver Riggleman after his loss in his re-election bid during the nomination process last summer it is important to note that Riggleman had the full support of President Trump which did not help him in one of the most pro-Trump Congressional districts in Virginia. After the nomination of Bob Good through some rather nefarious actions in the VA-05 nominating process, Trump of course flipped his position on Riggleman like so often Trump does. Keep in mind, Riggleman had conservative approval rating of about 94% the last two years representing the VA-05. The battle raged in the VA-05 all summer and regarding Riggleman and appears to have nothing to do with policy or votes rather it has to do with the fact many have made it personal based on things that frankly are totally irrelevant or at least should be in the context of performing the duties of office. Trump recent attacks on Riggleman are nothing more than the fact Trump has always had a "winners and losers" mentality. Remember the "Apprentice"?Trump stating that Riggleman lost his re-election bid for not being "Trump enough" is simply not born out by the facts yet none the less Trump is known for jettisoning anyone who moves from his winners consideration to losers and the fact remains Riggleman lost.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/us/politics/denver-riggleman-virginia-primary-bob-good.html

Everyone knows of course "how" Riggleman lost. The VA-05 nominating process in 2019/20 was plagued with corruption. Committee members were taking payouts while they worked behind the scenes to unseat their own Congressman. This is not the role of a district committee in truth and the fact is it very well may ultimately lead to the Republicans losing the seat in Congress to Dr. Cameron Webb (D). The fact remains the committee was successful in removing someone with broader appeal in the general electorate that attracted support from libertarians, moderates, conservatives and even "blue dog" Democrats replacing him with a far right "biblical red" conservative in Bob Good. A candidate that has not denounced the alt right or QAnon going into an election less than two weeks away that appears now to have moved from "solid red" or "safe seat" to now "toss up". 

https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/nonpartisan-cook-political-report-declares-virginias-5th-district-race-a-toss-up/article_eb370edd-96cd-5d79-ab1f-834692b6a367.html

Its ironic that as the Good campaign attempts to attract support from the extreme right of the Virginia GOP, Rep. Denver Riggleman has been working to expose the truth with regard to some of these groups than apparently even President Trump is not fully versed on. Recently, Riggleman introduced bipartisan resolution condemning QAnon in Congress.  QAnon is well known as a movement that promotes unfounded conspiracy theories as truth or fact on social media that began in 2017 that are meant to undermine the public trust Americans have in their democratic institutions.

Rep. Denver Riggleman recently stated that "QAnon and the conspiracy theories it promotes are a danger and a threat that has no place in our country's politics...I condemn this movement and urge all Americans to join me in taking this step to exclude them and other extreme conspiracy theories from the national discourse."

The Combating Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy has stated that "QAnon is arguable no longer simply a fringe conspiracy theory but an ideology that has demonstrated its capacity to radicalize to violence individuals at an alarming speed".

https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-half-of-trump-supporters-believe-q-anons-imaginary-claims-124025042.html

The problem is Riggleman appears alone in his condemnations. Campaigns such as Bob Good for Congress and Amanda Freeman Chase for Governor refuse to condemn QAnon. 

Why is it that Good and Chase refuse to condemn the movement? Recently USA Today reported on a Yahoo! News poll (see above) that half of President Trump's supporters believe in QAnon. The result simply has been a fear in condemning the movement by candidates. Riggleman has never displayed such fear in terms of doing the right thing regardless of the political ramifications. Riggleman is right in his condemnation of QAnon as much as he was right to marry a gay couple in 2019 who asked the Congressman to marry them.

So while Riggleman's bipartisan resolution (H.R. 1154) to condemn QAnon passes the House of Representatives in a 370-180-1 vote. The resolution was joined by Rep. Elaine Luria (D) from the VA-02 as a co-sponsor.

It is very telling that the movement has about as much creditibility as the Russian Collusion hoax and yet candidates like Good and Chase cannot bring themselves to condemn it. It seems while Riggleman has been outspoken against far left and far right conspiracy theories that advance anarchist ideologies and anti-Semitic tropes that encourage domestic violence. I am not alone in questioning why it is both self -professed Christian "biblical red conservatives" Bob Good and Amanda Freeman Chase appear to embrace those elements on the alt right that advance some of the most anti-Semitic views and insight violence that our intelligence community and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)  have stated "very likely motivate some domestic extremists , wholly or in part, to engage in criminal or violent activity".

It really begs the question why many like Good and Chase refuse to condemn such a movement. Do they really believe that the movement is indicative of how most Virginia Republicans think? I did a recent unscientific test and reached out to about two dozen conservatives in the VA-05 and VA-11 Senatorial District that Chase represents that I am connected with on Facebook and ask them how they felt about the QAnon movement. ONLY 3 even remotely knew anything about the movement and could actually speak to its positions. These were people that I respect and know are engaged in Virginia politics. ONLY 3.

Riggleman has tapped into something that is growing especially in Virginia. Many Virginians are reaching their fill on the divisiveness that many like Amanda Freeman Chase are promoting on the campaign trails. Riggleman believes that "the vitriol and anger spewing from both sides of the political aisle, echoing around the darkest corners and caverns of the internet has led to violence and hate, divisiveness and anger". Riggleman has demonstrated and knack for pointing out what we all know to be true but have refused to admit.The extremes of both political parties have hijacked their respective parties and left the middle or centrists to reconsider the binary choice.

If you examine Rep. Denver Riggleman's actual record in Congress it is really hard to just dismiss is effectiveness to lead and to bring people together. Even after losing his re-election bid last summer, Riggleman has continued to roll up his sleeves and stay in the fight for conservatives.

This week supporters of Bob Good took to social media to condemn Riggleman for comments they deemed detrimental to their candidate and insinuated that Riggleman betrayed the GOP by meeting with Dr. Cameron Webb (D) recently but has never publicly supported Good since his nomination. Ironically, these people are the very ones who supported corrupt efforts to unseat Riggleman in the first place and now expect Riggleman to "fall in line". Clearly, these people do not know Denver Riggleman at all. The "fall in line" or "kiss the ring" mindset is not part of the Riggleman DNA. 

Good supporters were upset that Riggleman would actually speak with Dr. Webb who stopped by the Congressman's distillery in the district coupled with the fact that Riggleman stated recently he would be "open" to "considering" any candidate.  Many would likely find this dispute as petty however it is actually really indicative of the problem that the Virginia GOP faces with the selection of candidates that have been nominated in many areas of Virginia. To those like Good and Chase and their supporters "principled" means nothing more than agreeing with them.

What has a "principled conservative" become in Virginia? Is it Ted Cruz (R)? Is it President Trump? Does the Virginia GOP even know anymore? The more supporters of Good and Chase flex the more the tent shrinks and the issue of QAnon and the alt right is simply one more example of this. The very fact that many Republicans cannot publicly rebuke or condemn these movements is every bit as telling as the lefts inability to condemn Antifa. 

Senator Chase is a prime example of this bipolar approach and hypocrisy. Chase continually has condemned Antifa but refuses to condemn QAnon and embraces the alt right fringe of the party and while supporters of Good and Chase rail against Riggleman for speaking with Dr. Webb they are silent on the fact that Chase herself met with Black Lives Matter/Antifa supporters in July in Richmond. So it seems appropriate for Chase to speak with designated domestic terror groups but not appropriate for Riggleman to speak with a candidate running for Congress from the Democratic Party who happens to be an actual constituent.

Much of what we have seen in 2020 regarding these movements and the rhetoric on the campaign trail and the fact that right now the Virginia GOP faces even further decline in representation on the Congressional Delegation after next months election will create a vacuum in the center of the Virginia political spectrum that Rep. Denver Riggleman is aptly able to fill in 2021.

Riggleman is currently weighing his options come January when his term expires. There is little doubt that Riggleman will continue his honorable service to the nation and may return to the intelligence community or potentially run for Governor of Virginia in 2021. It safe to say that whatever Riggleman decides to pursue he will remain unwavered in his commitment to his values in support of our Commonwealth, the Constitution and the Republic.

Many believe that the election next month may send the Virginia GOP into an even greater tailspin than the elections of 2019. The extreme far right has lost the Virginia center. With each passing Facebook post on pages of candidates like Amanda Freeman Chase the middle is further lost. The "center" is something Chase has portrayed for eight months as "liberal Republican" or "Democrat light" totally ignoring or even attempting to speak to these Virginians who are fiscal conservatives believing in limited government, lower taxes, equal justice, equal opportunities and have little appetite for social issues. While the center may not participate heavily in conventions or local committees it does in fact come to the polls in force.

Rep. Denver Riggleman whether intentional or not is speaking right now to the Virginia center. The center understands that Republicans can still win the Virginia Executive with the right candidates not unlike Gov. Larry Hogan(R) who has won two consecutive terms in highly liberal Maryland while all statewide Republican candidates have lost in Virginia since 2013. The chances for victory double in truth if Vice President upsets President Trump as Virginia historically moves counter to the holder of the White House.

The more the far right extremists use Rep. Denver Riggleman as a rock to break their own QAnon and alt right divisiveness against the more that the Virginia GOP loses even more ground and provides the opportunity for a sea change in the Virginia political universe in 2021. Again the "clans" are divided and have yet to identity someone they can all unite behind.

No Republican can win Virginia statewide without the support of the Virginia center comprised of libertarians, moderates and independents and yet as 2021 gets closer and closer the more these voters are alienated by the far right movements that embrace xenophobic, homophobic, anti-Semitc and anti- government rhetoric.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott

Bob Good (R) attacks on Cameron Webb (D) Deemed False

 

As the Congressional races continue to push forward to next month's election there has been a massive shift to digital spending given the COVID-19 impacts on retail campaigning throughout the districts. This is particularly true in the Virginia 5th where the incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) was forced out of his seat through rather corrupt practices from within his own local GOP committee during what has been characterized as a "circus" resulting in the nomination of Bob Good (R) formerly of Liberty University.

Recently, the Good campaign appears to be scrambling over disclosures that resulted in the campaigns filings that may have not revealed certain assets owned by Good. It happens that the Good campaign appears to have failed to disclose about 250,000 in assets on state filings that appeared recently on federal paperwork filed as an amended financial disclosure form. The filing can be found here:

https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/financial-pdfs/2019/10039161.pdf

This issue comes after recent attacks launched by the Bob Good campaign against the Democratic candidate Dr. Cameron Webb (D) that claim that Webb supports defunding police and has asserted that Webb is in effect "anti-police".  Immediately following the attack, Bob Good's own record with regard to local policing came under scrutiny that demonstrated that Good while an official with Campbell County supported decreasing funding for local sheriff office on two separate instances which has been claimed to limit the effectiveness of attracting deputies to Campbell County as the pay scale is not commensurate to other Virginia localities. The Webb campaign fired back very aggressively on social media to dismiss the claims coming from the Good campaign regarding defunding.

Dr. Cameron Webb has never released any public statement regarding support of defunding police. This issue has been made a hot button issue in many Congressional races however there is some question in reality just how much impact any Congressman would have on local law enforcement funding in truth. Local law enforcement typically comes within the parameters of local government funding and allocation of funds for the either sheriff or police departments. Webb denied the claims in terms of defunding police and charged the Good campaign with yet another misleading attack on his candidacy.

Webb is the son of a former federal law enforcement officer and a large part of the Webb campaign has been criminal justice reform. Such campaigning has generated some traction in the greater Charlottesville region of the district. Webb has campaigned effectively in some conservative areas of the district through his effective connection skills with voters of both parties. Webb has given some credit to President Trump in areas like criminal justice reform but has stated that he hopes to expand on the First Step Act signed by President Trump. 

Webb has hardly thus far run a negative campaign directed at is opponent. The Good campaign however has gone negative in wake of recent polling for President Trump that can certainly impact down ballot races in Virginia. Good has to be very careful with this strategy as he is also having to deal with the fact he must heal the rift between him and Riggleman supporters. Many of Riggleman's supports are independents and Libertarian Republicans who do not subscribe to the "red biblical conservative" label that has come to be the prime attribution to Bob Good. 

These voters are very much up for grabs in the VA5 as a direct result of the VA5 GOP District Committee.

The race as it stands in early October is a "toss up". That in itself is a huge positive for Virginia Democrats given the nomination of Denver Riggleman would have certainly created a much tougher road for winning the district. Much will depend on the turnout in the Charlottesville region which is typically a pro-Democratic area. The impact of Covid-19 and the unknown campus turnout this cycle as a result at University of Virginia is a critical contributing factor in this race this cycle.

The claim regarding defunding police has been rebuked rather effectively by the Cameron Webb campaign and Webb very effectively turned the issue back on Bob Good's own record in Campbell County that otherwise many voters may never have known.

The VA5 should be lean Republican but Cameron Webb is making in roads in areas within the district which is one of the most diverse in terms of geography and one of biggest districts in the Commonwealth. It can take some five hours to travel from one end of the district to the other north to south. It is comprised of rural, small town and mid size towns as well as small cities. Many are college towns with younger voter classes.

Th wildcard in this race is Denver Riggleman. Thus far there has been no real endorsement of Good from the Riggleman camp and many believe that Riggleman plans to run for Governor of Virginia in 2021 as an "independent" given the bad blood that the corruption in the VA5 nominating process highlighted earlier this year.

The Republican Party of Virginia has since voted in support of preventing such corruption from happening again stemming from VA5 District Committee members accepting payments from the Good campaign during the nominating process and than casting votes regarding the process in which the nomination would occur.  Many claim that this corruption was born out contempt for Riggleman by some committee members for marrying a gay couple in 2019. It has been claimed that Melvin Adams and Chris Shores associated with the Virginia 5th Congressional Committee went about locating a candidate to challenge Riggleman over the issue. Adams has been reported to have made extreme homophobic comments and anti LGBTQ comments that Cameron Webb's campaign has used effectively in portraying Good as having the same core religious beliefs that are not aligned with majority of the district.

Thus far Dr. Cameron Webb has raised 1.3 million according to the Virginia Public Access Project whereas Bob Good has raised just 262,031 as of June 30, 2020.  The next campaign donations numbers should be releasing very soon.