Things have certainly changed in Virginia since the November election.
Though in all likelihood not in the way in which most probably think.
While Virginia Democrats continue for the most part to recover from the the massive political hangover of losing the Executive and the House of Delegates with the reality setting in that they are now once again the "opposition" Party in Richmond, directional leadership for the Democrats in the words of State Senator Lucas (D) has morphed into nothing more than a "firewall".
This "firewall" as Senator Lucas puts it on her newly formed Twitter feed since assuming control of the majority for Democrats in the Virginia Senate is and will always be nothing more than obstructionism which in the end will not sit very well with voters come the 2022 Congressional elections let alone the 2023 election where every member of the Virginia Senate will be on the ballot.
Unfortunately, the far right Conservative wing of the Virginia GOP has yet to awaken from its same, tired tactical positions regarding the "establishment". These are the Conservatives that spend more time on social media attacking fellow Republicans than they do working with communities to ensure that Republicans begin the process of returning the "trifecta" of state governance back to the Republicans.
It appears though it is very early that many in the Conservative camp on the far right have yet to accept let alone learn from the lessons that the November election have presented not only in Virginia but in places like New Jersey, New York and elsewhere.
The fact of the matter is if you examine the shifts in Virginia from 2013 to 2020 leading into the 2021 election of Executive offices the Republicans by all accounts should have lost. They didn't.
The question that Conservatives should be examining is why the Virginia GOP overcame the shift in demographics and voting trends and won and by doing so it would better prepare them for the campaign seasons ahead. The truth is the GOP campaign machine was old and tired. It had repeatedly got its ass kicked by a younger, flexible and social media savvy Democrat Party that leveraged local assets on the ground with "foreign" money to finance victories. "Foreign" money is that from California, New York, Illinois etc that have filled the coffers of the Democrat Party for a decade and fueled a radical, progressive agenda not only in schools but also in the justice system via Commonwealth Attorneys.
The Governor Youngkin campaign has changed the board. Not only the board but the entire game.
Youngkin's campaign in 2021 mirrored many other Republican Governors that in fact are governing "blue states". The Youngkin campaign capitalized on the campaign stupidity from the former Governor Terry McAuliffe campaign but also did many things that prior GOP campaigns failed to do and that was to stow away the far right "populist" jargon for a message that resonated directly to Virginia families and brought those that had supported Democrats in Congressional races over to the GOP. The question now rests with the next field of candidates whether they can sustain the movement and keep those voters aligned with the GOP and risk losing by returning the to campaigning strategies of the last decade resulting in the loss of the Executive and General Assembly in the first place.
Lets face it. The Virginia GOP was rolling in 2012. Even with the consideration of the "scandal" which based on standards today now looks absurd relating the Governor Bob McDonnell (R) the GOP was by all accounts heading to victory in the 2013 election cycle. What prevented victory?
Many will point to the third party run in the election of 2013 that took votes on the edges of the GOP away to the Libertarian candidate but this is denying the unspoken truth that there was a cancer from within the GOP itself that began to spread and alienate voters almost in the same way that the Democrats alienated many parents in 2021. There was a surge in "anti-establishmentism" back then with much of it centered around Representative Eric Cantor (R) of the 7th Congressional District by way of the Virginia Tea Party. While the Tea Party movement was basically reabsorbed back into the Virginia GOP the sentiment has not gone away with this element of the Virginia GOP.
The sentiment basically was illustrated by State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase(R/I) from Chesterfield County throughout the last four years. Chase cut her teeth in the days of the Tea Party and ultimately helping unseat Cantor played a direct result in the Democrats flipping the House seat in 2018. By 2020 the Democrats had won victories for Biden and Rep. Spanberger in Chesterfield County long a conservative county. It has been argued that Chase was part of the vocal element that undermined the candidacy of Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (R) in 2013 that would ultimately place Ken Cuccinelli (R) on the ballot for Governor and not Bolling. This cycle signaled the political demise for almost eight years until Governor Youngkin flipped the script.
The biggest difference between Republicans and Democrat activists during this period was the Tea Party put principles ahead of WINNING while the Democrats went about building a ground game that would propel them not only in WINNING but taking control of Richmond and more House seats in the years that followed. The movement is all but dead but has manifested itself in the "populist" movement of the GOP today. Only problem is these individuals are "oppositionists" and nothing more having no opportunities to lead or demonstrate what solutions they would set forth or even attempt to deliver to Virginians. Much of the messaging is tied to valued issues especially Constitutional ones that matter but more Virginians appear to moved back to the old kitchen table issues again not ideological battles like gay marriage or abortion.
Lt. Governor Bolling was popular in Virginia. Had been for years with voters and especially independent voters across Virginia but that was not good enough for those that would label Bolling a "moderate" and prefer to advance backward looking fights and agendas and re-litigating previous battles lost and push for a social conservative far right candidate in Cuccinelli. Of course by the time the GOP was done it was not the "establishment" that pulled the trigger on the series of losses that would plaque the Virginia GOP in the years that followed but rather the ever powerful minority with the party machine that facilitate in truth who will be on any ballot.
Here is some back story on events in 2013 that led to the political wasteland experienced by the Virginia GOP afterward:
In 2008, incumbent lieutenant governor Bill Bolling made a deal with then-Attorney General Bob McDonnell whereby McDonnell would run for governor and Bolling would run for re-election as lieutenant governor in 2009, and then Bolling would receive McDonnell's support for his own candidacy for governor in 2013. The deal was widely known and as such, Bolling was effectively running for governor since 2009,[1] and in April 2010, Bolling filed the necessary paperwork to run in 2013.[2] Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, elected alongside McDonnell and Bolling in 2009, stated that he intended to run for re-election as attorney general in 2013, but did not rule out running for governor.[3] In December 2011, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli told his staff that he would run against Bolling for governor in 2013; the news went public, and in response, Bolling issued a statement accusing Cuccinelli of putting "his own personal ambition ahead of the best interests of the commonwealth and the Republican Party."[4][5][6] This infuriated Bolling and set up a primary.[4] Cuccinelli's announcement came two days before the annual statewide conference of Virginia Republicans, at which Bolling and his staff expressed being upset with Cuccinelli's decision.[7]
In June 2012, the party's State Central Committee, which had new members since the committee previously voted to hold a primary, reversed course and voted 47–31 to select a nominee via convention in 2013, igniting much controversy among party members.[8] The switch was a major blow to Bolling's candidacy, as Cuccinelli supporters were more ardent and involved in the party and thus more willing to travel to a day-long convention.[9] Proponents of the reversal said a convention would prevent Democrats from meddling in the selection (Virginia does not register voters by party, making primaries open to voters regardless of party).[9] Primaries are also run by the State Board of Elections and taxpayer funded; proponents said a convention, which is funded by the party, would save the state money.[8] Convention proponents also argued that nominees selected by convention historically perform better in the general election than nominees selected by primary, and that conventions allow candidates to present their cases within the party, preventing candidates from tearing each other down via negative advertising seen by the general electorate.[8] Opponents of the reversal said a convention would disenfranchise military voters who are unable to physically attend a convention, and would cost the party too much money."
Here and now there are many that still blame Bolling but the fault does not and never lied with Bolling. Rather, it like today lies with the very same people today with the Republican Party that continue to call anyone that does not meet its litmus test of conservatism a "RINO" or a "False Republican" which of course is the most asinine thing that anyone could ever say pertaining to politics and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding as well as history pertaining to the very party they claim to support.
The Virginia GOP has always been not unlike the national party a coalition. The Tea Party and far right social conservatives have forgotten that or at the very least ignored that fact that without Libertarians, Independents and "Moderates" they would never EVER have any chance statewide. In fact, the record for those running on social conservatism or some strange variation "populist" platform is loss after loss in Virginia.
Again, those that refuse to learn the lessons and repeat the same old, tired strategies in the end lilkely will alienate voters once again. It is all over social media already just months after winning back the House and the Executive the in fighting has already started regarding the spoils apparently and who should be the voice of the Virginia GOP. Well, simple answer? The people that WON! That's who.
Recently, in a thread on the Conservatives for Congress 2022 on Facebook this was illustrated not only by various individuals but also an actual candidate once again advancing the "anti-establishment" or not conservative enough mindset that created the decade of losses to begin with. These individuals are no different than the far left in truth because it is about box checking and litmus tests not relating to people as individuals.
Some went as far as to claim that State Senator Jenn Kiggans (R) who represents the Virginia's 2d Senate District comprised in 2019 of Virginia Beach City and Norfolk City and who defeated incumbent Cheryl Turpin (D) last cycle where both Governor Northam (D) and U.S. Senator Kaine (D) had previously won by ten or so basis points was not even a "conservative".
Why? Well as commented in the thread she happen to vote with Democrats on some bills. Oh the horror. Remember a time when working with the opposition was considered honorable? Nowadays not so much. People in some quarters want nothing more than total allegiance regardless of intent of individual bills proposed on the floor of the legislature. It is tribal to them. They have no notion of Reagan's true strength as a leader and his own philosophies that shaped a blossoming GOP in the 1980's after very similar patterns of economics on late 1970's that the United State very well could endure in the year ahead if things do not change. By todays standards who knows whether some of these people even think Reagan was a conservative. We already know they don't think Rep. Jack Kemp(R) was!
Fact of the matter remains that Kiggans only came under this fire because she has dared to throw herself into the race for the GOP nomination in the 2d Congressional District and has already out raised the other three potential nominees combined. One contributor comment on that thread mentioned above was that Kiggans has never been seen carrying a firearm. The assertion is then of course that she is not a supporter of the Second Amendment yet her ratings disprove that assertion. Is this simply a throw back to the ridiculousness of State Senator Chase holding a rifle and holding it wrong in fact repeatedly in photo ops as somehow the manner in which we determine whether someone is pro-2A or not? Do votes and ratings no longer matter?
Which begs the question. Has the far right populists of the Virginia GOP totally misunderstood that the Kiggans record in the State Senate makes it almost impossible for Rep. Elaine Luria (D) to exploit as "extreme" like she has down twice to the GOP in two consecutive victories for her seat.
In fact, Luria doubled her winning percentage from 2018 to 2020 which should signal something to the populists. President Biden won this area of the Commonwealth by 5 points in Virginia Beach and won running away with over 71% of the vote in Norfolk City. Youngkin obviously performed much better last November than previous GOP candidates including Trump but many of the populists are ignoring this fact and launching attacks against Kiggans when the voting trends show that she in all likelihood has a greater chance of winning the district than a far right populist. I mean lets be honest, if Trump failed to win himself does anyone really think that someone simply mirroring his message will? The very basis some have argued for Youngkin's victory was he did just the opposite both in tone and message.
But you see this gets back to the whole anti-establishment angler that many on the far right push. These were the same people mind you that opposed Youngkin's candidacy throughout 2021 from within the Virginia GOP. These are those people that hitched their wagons to the ever ambitious State Senator Chase who rallied her supporters calling herself "Trump in heels". She lost. Repeating the same mindset over and over in Virginia elections is not going to change the outcomes for these candidates that cannot understand that shift that has happened in Virginia over the last decade. It is no longer the 1990's. Yougkin like his colleague in Governor Larry Hogan (R) who as one would have it also gets lambasted as a "RINO" and "false conservative" by the same people doing it to Kiggans and did it to Youngkin last year before he won the nomination has provided a road map to the Virginia voter for 2022 and 2023.
The goal for the Virginia GOP should be WINNING not intra party skirmishes like it witnessed in 2013. Remember, in 2012 no one anticipated a Democrat victory for Governor until it became obvious that the Virginia GOP was imploding due to intra party divisions and people portraying "moderates" as somehow "Democrat-lite". But alas if there is a way in which the Virginia GOP could mess this whole thing up the over/under on them doing it it probably pretty high even when you consider everything happening in Washington points to wins for the GOP in 2022 elsewhere across the country.
The Kiggans example is just one. There are other races of course across the Commonwealth with many now directly impacted by the new redistricting plan adopted for Virginia. Tina Ramirez (R) who seemingly came out of nowhere in 2020 in the nomination process for the 7th Congressional District and impressed thousands of voters she almost won the nomination that would go to Delegate Nick Freitas (R). Now, Ramirez has had to withdraw from the 2022 race given Chesterfield County has been drawn out of the district but Ramirez has determined to run for State Senate in 2023 to represent the newly drawn Senate district. Seemingly a half dozen or so officials have been drawn out of the districts they have either represented or have run for offices in the past few years.
As it stands, most Virginians have had changes in some form or fashion to voting districts as a result of the Supreme Court ruling on redistricting so the rime is now for the ground games to commence especially for a united Virginia GOP that must release any notions of going backward.
There is an opportunity presenting itself right now in Virginia for the Virginia GOP but the reality is the GOP must heed the lessons of 2021 and look to the examples across the country where messaging was focused not on social issues or social dogmas but the very issues one could argue that propelled the GOP to victories decades ago like schools, crime, jobs, limited government and spending cuts----fiscal responsibility!
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