Friday, November 13, 2020

The Counter Narrative: Bearing Drift's D.J. McGuire's "Heart is Twisted"

 

Recently, Bearing Drift published some commentary from D.J McGuire who serves as a senior contributor on the staff that everyone should take a few minutes and read. It is ironic that the very people calling for national unity and healing are the very people that very well may have divided our nation in the first place. I recall so many times as a youth where my mom would always tell me its better to walk away from bullies given they only seek attention.


The left in America could never "walk away" from Trump. Not once.

The truth is the American political left created Donald Trump not the Republican Party. Much of the animosity towards Trump on full display for the last four years was derived from him simply running as a Republican in the first with the audacity of challenging the left's beloved Hillary Clinton. Before that of course the left had little issue whatsoever with Trump and in fact was a regular at liberal events and even big donor events for the Democrats.

Once Trump became President there was a determined effort of revisionism by the media.

Trump recently stated at a rally going into the 2020 Election that it was the mismanagement of the prior administration that led him to run for the nomination of the Republican Party in 2016. In short, the Democratic Party created Trump. McGuire, a regular contributor with Bearing Drift as well as frequent guest with Chris Saxman's pre-election zoom calls online with Bearing Drift contributors routinely makes outlandish claims even so far as going after Saxman. Chris Saxman is the Executive Director of the respected non-partisan and non-profit Virginia Free who also hosts a radio show and radiocast daily from 5pm to 6pm Monday thru Friday on WJFN 100.5.

For starters, D.J. McGuire laughed at the prospect of Trump winning the nomination in 2016 let alone winning the Presidency. From the jump, McGuire was not about to provide Trump with a reasonable chance of legitimacy and over the course of the last four years has done nothing more than rail against Trump at every turn. Of course this is much to be expected from those experiencing the anguish of the failed Clinton campaign. However, lately McGuire has turned most of his attention away from Trump and upon Trump supporters.

https://bearingdrift.com/2020/11/11/the-republican-party-is-now-anti-american/

The above submission recently at the Bearing Drift by D.J. McGuire reminded me of the movie "Last of the Mohicans". In it there is a moment where Hawkeye played by , adopted son of Chingachgook of the Mohicans states to Chief Sachem regarding the actions of the warrior Mauga the following:

"Would the Huron make his Alqonquin brothers foolish with brandy and steal his lands to sell them for gold to the white man? Would Huron have greed for more land than a man can use? Would Huron fool Seneca into taking all the furs of all the animals of the forest for beads and strong whiskey? Those are the ways of the Yengeese and the Francais traders and their masters in Europe infected with the sickness of greed. Magua's heart is twisted. He would make himself into what twisted him"

D.J McGuire is Magua

In this context "greed" can easily be replaced today with "power". 

McGuire claims to have been a Republican until "primary voters" went a different direction than he  anticipated and nominated Trump. Understand and recognize the time pertaining to this realization for McGuire and his core rejection of Trump. At the "moment" that the GOP nominated Trump, McGuire no longer considered himself a Republican. McGuire did not wait until election day or even after the first 180 days of a Trump presidency rather he took all his toys and joined the left and spent four years piling on Trump right along with the media.The nation followed along with the repeated and unrelenting attacks on the President yet the attackers never took any pause to recognize that they to share in the growing divide being created in our nation. By never accepting the legitimacy of Trump's victory, it was their hearts "twisted". Having  a flawed candidate and failed campaign they would refuse to accept the legitimacy of Trump. McGuire and others could never  accept the reality that Clinton was defeated.

Now we see the exact same fruit on the right with Trump supporters who may deny the legitimacy of the election of Vice President Joe Biden. Only this time there are real concerns with our election process. Will it overturn the outcome? Probably not but regardless there are real concerns with the "Dominion" suite software, poll observers and ballot inspections. And while McGuire would prefer to ignore the fact that the Pennsylvania courts acted without authority whatsoever under the Constitution, it is clear that many of the measures enacted by the courts and the Secretary of State in Pennsylvania will be ruled unconstitutional actions that in truth worked to disenfranchise the vote of legally authorized citizens through permitting illegal votes in accordance with established Pennsylvania law. While the outcome may not be impacted should not the legal process continue in a Republic when the Constitution is violated? As an American, can D.J. McGuire really dismiss these violations to our founding documents simply out of tribalism or some hate towards Trump and his supporters.

And make no mistake. This piece in the Bearing Drift is hateful and in truth "anti-American" ion its face.

McGuire in his attack on Trump supporters has "anti-American" and his contention that Republicans no longer believe in democracy fails to recognize that ensuring fair elections in in fact standing up for democracy. McGuire has voiced little opposition to a party in Virginia that repeatedly trounces the Constitution or seeks to undermine law and order within our Commonwealth. For example, the Virginia Democrats have sought to end the mandatory reporting of sexual assault on school premises by school officials to local law enforcement, want to send social workers to homes where women have reported domestic violence---no longer do Democrats want to send police to intervene when a man commits assault upon his wife or girlfriend in clear violation of the law--or no longer will it result in jail time for assaulting a police officer let alone a felony. In short, violent criminals can keep their right to vote avoiding felony prosecutions for assault having them all brought down to misdemeanors for the purpose of votes not public safety.

This is not Trump making our communities unsafe. Its Virginia Democrats. Democrats that D.J. McGuire clearly supports. McGuire asserts that somehow Trump has been a "god-send" to those countries in the world that oppose democracy and its been the Republicans that have weakened the standing of America in the world however this could not be further from the truth. McGuire rejected Trump in 2016 over "actual policies" advocated during the nomination process and yet many of those policies have worked to the benefit of the American people and America;'s standing in the world. McGuire like the leftists in the media all but ignore the fact no one even mentions Iraq, Afghanistan or Syria anymore let alone the progress made in the Middle East in terms of peace accords between Israel and Arab nations. McGuire does not recognize that we no longer are talking about ISIS or confrontation with North Korea like during the last administration waning days. McGuire implies that it is far better to use "soft powers" rather than demand that NATO allies pay their fair share in defending their own continent or the very fact that the next President of the United States while Vice President demanded a "quid pro quo" on television in a room full of reporters that have suddenly succumb to amnesia while attempting to pin unverifiable assertions of a Russian "hoax" on the Trump administration.

This is the level of intellectual dishonesty that exists when  your heart gets twisted. 

It becomes twisted with tribalism. Right now President-elect Biden has not been certified by a single state in the Union and yet his team is contacting foreign powers with not so much as a by your leave from anyone. The very thing the leftist media destroyed General Michael Flynn and his family over doing in 2016 during Trump's transition. The media is out praising the Biden team for reaching out to foreign leaders and the election has not even been certified yet nor has there been a concession yet its McGuire's assertion its the Republicans who do not respect democracy and are authoritarian. The Democrats have repeatedly used the courts to legislate or at the very least as a sword against any measure the legitimate government attempted to employ and used the fourth estate (media) as cover. McGuire claims its the Republicans that are the "fifth column" or the "enemy from within" whereas the truth is it is the media and the establishment (swamp) that are the enablers and the true fifth column in America.

McGuire like so often is completely wrong in his assessment in large part because it is purely an emotion-based opinion void of true objectivity of fact. That would be par the course for most of the media these days, however McGuire takes it entirely too far when he asserts such characterizations regarding supporters of Trump. 71 million Americans went to the polls, cast absentee or mail in ballots for President Trump and any notion that somehow D.J. McGuire has the finger on the heartbeat of 71 million supporters is rather absurd if not arrogant. 

Is it somehow "anti-American" that 71 million Americans want to keep their jobs in America and not have them shipped out overseas again? (D.J. NAFTA was a disaster) That wanting to be able to assume the risks of their choosing and worship in their churches during the pandemic is "anti-American"? That desiring to the have a means of self defense with their rights not infringed is "anti-American"? That desiring to go to work and not be forced to stay at home due to emergency powers is "anti-American"?  That seeking integrity in their elections and desire for every legal vote be counted is "anti-American"?

No. What is truly "anti-American" is shredding our institutions over the false narratives of systematic racism and seeking to "pack the courts" or create as the "Squad" pronounced rolls of names of supporters of Trump from within the confines of the government service or private citizens opposing their agenda. One could argue that the very notion of the level of socialism that D.J. McGuire would accept is "anti-American".

How you know D.J McGuire's heart is truly twisted and the reality that he should reexamine his perceptions of Americanism is that he could never admit that Trump was "his"President. He denied himself that ability by permitting his heart to be twisted and in fact has become himself the very thing that has twisted it. Read his own words. Ask yourself what possible place could individuals find themselves to think so little of their fellow countrymen regardless of tribe.

In all likelihood Joe Biden will become the next American President. Upon certification of electors, Biden as a duly elected President will become an American President and as because I am an "American" he will become MY President regardless of whom supported him at the polls. I will honor MY President with that respect. A respect that D.J. McGuire and many of his colleagues on the left failed to provide President Donald J. Trump for four years.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott


Thursday, November 12, 2020

VA-07 Election Anaysis: The More Things Change the More They Stay The Same

As the data and the metrics continue to come pouring in and the result in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District (VA-07) no longer appears in doubt, the Republican Party of Virginia should wast little time in diving into the data points that determined the election last week in favor of Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) for a second time in two years.




There should be some level of concern on the part of Republicans that should not be dismissed by the establishment interest or the political consultant class. Many Republican campaigns have used the same consultants over the course of the last decade that appear to have not read the electorate at large or the metrics on the ground especially well in suburban Virginia. There appears a widening disconnect between the GOP candidates and suburban voters, especially suburban women, minorities and "foreign born" voters.

The fact remains that the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has steadily lost the suburban vote over the last seven years. Consultants would like to lay much of this at the feet of President Trump however this is an easy out for them that often is not substantiated by the many of the metrics.

For example, in 2020 President Trump outperformed many of the Republican candidates for Congress. One rising star for the RPV is Aliscia Andrews (R) who ran in the VA-10 and managed to generated higher percentages than Trump in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties in her district. In her precincts in Prince William County, Andrews outperformed Trump by 13 points and in Fairfax County by 10 points followed by Loudoun County and Clarke County by 3 points.

Conversely, President Trump outperformed candidates like Bob Good (R) in VA-05 and Del. Nick Freitas in VA-07 in about half as many of the counties in the districts and not simply rural localities. In an election cycle where the media all but declared suburbia for the Democrats as a repudiation of Trump, not all of suburbia reflected that narrative.

Trump managed to raise his percentage in Henrico County from 36.60% in 2016 to 38.73% however Del. Nick Freitas came in under both Trump's 2020 performance as well as Rep. David Brat's 40.12% in 2018 for the seat in VA-07. Del. Freitas would lose Henrico 60.64% to 39.18 where Rep. Spanberger increased her voting percentage by 2 points from 2018. 

Spanberger also managed to raise her voting percentage in Chesterfield County just under a percent as the difference in the result resulted in the same 10 point margin in the Democrats favor. Spanberger outperformed Biden almost a point in Chesterfield and over a point in Henrico. Spanberger raised her vote count in Chesterfield County from 60,897 in 2018 to 80,161 in 2020 and in Henrico from 63,892 in 2018 to 80,421 in 2020. These two localities represent the lions share of votes cast in the VA-07.




Online surveys indicate that the one of the issues that put Delegate Nick Freitas on the defensive with suburban voters was the manner in which Spanberger used "preexisting conditions" and an "autism vote" to characterize Freitas. Spanberger raised over 4 million dollars and used these resources against Freitas in repeated ad campaigns and online media using the healthcare issues has a focal point.

Following the election in a caucus call, Rep. Spanberger stated that the Democrats "need to not ever use the term socialist or socialism ever again" and that the messaging regarding "defunding the police" nearly cost Spanberger the race in 2020. The comments illustrate the differences between Spanberger and the progressives in the Democrat Party and actually puts her at odds with many Virginia Democrats in Richmond. There is some suspicion that the Spanberger team leaked the audio from the caucus call given the team recognizes that 2022 may be in jeopardy for her if a Biden administration is directed by the progressives in Washington.

On the Republican side, many are already seeking Delegate Freitas to run again in 2022 given the tightness of the race but in evaluating the trends and metrics this may not actually be the best course of action for RPV given Freitas has now lost a U.S. Senate statewide primary and a Congressional race  within last two years.  Scott Taylor (R) sought to take back his seat lost in 2018 forgoing a U.S. Senate run and failed to win the VA-02 last week. 

In examining the House races that the GOP won in 2020, it is Republican women that seem to outperform expectations.  Two examples were winners Nicole Malliotakis (R) in NY-11 and Maria Salazar in FL-27.Given the makeup of the Virginia suburbs and the rising trends of women and minority owned businesses in suburban Richmond, the RPV needs to evaluate these metrics to ensure that any candidate has appeal to this metric.

The fact remains that any Republican nominated in the VA-07 in 2022 would likely win most of the rural districts. These voters must turnout in 2022 of course but the GOP must have a candidate that can appeal to at least 46% of the suburban electorate or the RPV to flip VA-07. How the RPV responds to a typical decline in turnout after a Presidential election will certainly be something to keep and eye on with its new Chairman in Rich Anderson.

The reason for this is that the Democrats increased its turnout but not its voting percentages compared to the Republicans. Only in Goochland and Powhatan did Spanberger raise her "rural" percentage  and it was by less than a percent. While this should concern the Democrats if the GOP can turnout voters in 2022 should Biden finally get certified as the winner, the Democrats will continue to focus on the suburban vote that has delivered Spanberger two elections in a row now. In back to back cycles, Spanberger has only won two counties out of ten in the district.

Concerning for the RPV is the following areas in "rural" Virginia that Del. Nick Freitas under performed Trump: (Trump/Freitas)

Amelia County  68.29%  (67.38)

Louisa County 60.66%  (60.07)

Nottoway County 56.89%  (55.10)

Powhatan County 71.24% (70.62)

Orange County 59.91%  (59.73%)

There is a question in terms of Democratic turnout if the election was a referendum on Trump in truth or support for Biden. Places like Louisa County which appears to be moving move with VA-05 counties in terms of trends saw an increase of about 2,500 Democratic voters over 2018  and Spanberger in 2020 outperformed Clinton by 4 points. Spanberger outperformed Clinton (34.83%) with 40.81% in 2020 adding 2,000 voters from 2016 in support for her campaign. Orange County experienced almost an identical result where Clinton earned 34.50% and Spanberger earned 40.08% in 2020. Spanberger took advantage of almost two thousand more Democratic voters over 2016 turnout for Clinton.

A positive for Delegate Freitas was he raised voting percentages in all but two counties; Henrico and Goochland.  It is important to also consider that Freitas (39.18%) under performed in terms of appeal to left leaning districts in terms of margin as State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) 2019 race performance where Dunnavant's 49.14% in Henrico helped her secure victory in a very tight election against Delegate Debra Rodman (D) 50.76% to 49.06%. Freitas did perform very well in established Republican precincts in Henrico but these could not propel him to a county victory where Spanberger won 60.64%.

The question than becomes will the RPV recognize the appeal and the criticisms such leaders as State Amanda Chase seeking the GOP nomination for Governor have launched against Dunnavant's positions though it appears they appeal to more Henrico voters than President Trump, Del.Freitas and Rep. Brat. Supporters of the GOP should also recognize the appeal that rising start Tina Ramirez may have in suburban Richmond in 2022 than Delegate Freitas or Rep. Brat have delivered. One could also argue that Senator Dunnavant (R) has more appeal to suburban voters as well historically and given the rise of Republican women and success at the polls this cannot be understated.

Suburban Turnout VA-07: 2016/2020----will leave you scratching your head

Chesterfield County:  85,045 (Trump) 65,019 (Trump) -

                                   81,074 (Clinton) 79,783 (Biden) -

Henrico County :       59,857 (Trump)  52,184 (Trump) -

                                   93,935 (Clinton) 80,032 (Biden) -

Trump lost voter support in the following counties from 2016 to 2020:

Chesterfield County 48.22% to 44.07%

Goochland County 59.73% to 58.80%

Spotsylvania County 55.25% to 54.84%

Orange County : 60.93% to 59.91%

Culpeper County: 60.08 to 59.05%


Freitas lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 (Brat) to 2020:

Henrico County 40.12% to 39.18%

Goochland County 59.58%- 58.94%


Spanberger (D) raised voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Chesterfield County: 54.09% to 55.03%

Henrico County : 58.67% to 60.64%

Powhatan County: 28.89% to 29.30%

Goochland County: 39.52% to 40.81%

Orange County: 40.07% to 40.08%


Spanberger (D) lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Amelia County: 32.87% to 32.49%

Louisa County: 40.47% to 39.73%

Spotsylvania County: 44.17% to 43.88%

Culpeper County: 40.68% to 39.98%

Nottoway County- 45.05% to 44.72%


All statistical information and voting metrics in this article come from two primary sources that Virginians can review.

1. https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/President_and_Vice_President_(CD_-_07).html

2. vpap.org/visuals/visual/presidential/


Guest Commentator

Jonathan Scott




Tuesday, November 10, 2020

The GOP Holds VA-05 For Now

 

It has been an intense election cycle for the Virginia 5th Congressional District. After nominating Bob Good (R) with 58.12% at one of the strangest nominating conventions in Virginia history given the pandemic, Good went on last week to defeat Dr. Cameron Webb (D) to retain the Congressional seat for the Virginia GOP.



Good had defeated beloved Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) who was elected in 2018 to represent the VA-5 in the cycle that saw the Democrats pick up seats throughout Virginia. Each of those pickups in 2018 held in 2020 for the Democrats and include VA-2, VA-7 and VA-10.

Many pollsters and media polling agencies moved VA-05 into "toss up" leading into election day however in the end the VA-5 outcome remained the same as 2018 even with increases in turnout. The key for Good appears to lied in the rural vote turnout which outpaced prior elections. Rep. Riggleman (R) had generated 53.18% in 2018 and Bob Good (R) managed to hold serve in 2020 with 52.49% overall.

However, if you evaluate the underlying metrics what is revealed is Bob Good (R) under performed President Trump in many conservative leaning areas of the district. Trump actually outperformed Good in left leaning areas as well like Albermarle County where Trump earned just 32.18% and in places like Nelson, Fluvanna, Greene, Madison and Prince Edward Counties.

Nelson County: 49.47 (Good) 51.65% Trump

Fluvanna County: 49.28 (Good) 51.48% Trump

Greene County: 58.78 (Good) 60.70 % Trump

Madison County: 62.80 (Good) 65.20% Trump

Prince Edward County: 46.09 (Good) 46.31% Trump

In contrast Rep. Ben Cline (R) in the VA-06 in Augusta County next door to VA-05 outperformed Trump 77.21% to 72.65%. Riggleman in 2018 also outperformed Bob Good in Albermarle County where Riggleman earned 35.26% compared to Good's 31.47. Riggleman further outperformed in Fluvanna, Madison and Nelson Counties in 2018 than Good in 2020.

This is worth noting because Riggleman and Good are very different Republicans. Riggleman is more centrist/moderate than Good who described himself during the campaign as a "biblical conservative". This district is undergoing a transition in which the Virginia GOP is going to have to compete cycle after cycle in the next decade. The same shifts to the suburban Charlottesville City areas occurred in the suburban areas of the Virginia 7th Congressional District east of VA-05.

Dr. Cameron Webb (D) raised turnout levels in areas like Charlottesville City, Danville City and Albermarle County substantially this cycle and managed to win Nelson and Fluvanna Counties won by Riggleman in 2018.  In Nelson County for example, Webb increased turnout from 3,669 (2018) to 9,179 (2020) and earned 50.09%. In Fluvanna County the turnout was raised to 15,699 in 2020 from 5,790 resulting in a flip to the Democrats with Webb generating 51.50%. Riggleman won Fluvanna County with 50.46% in 2018.

In Albemarle County which densely populated in comparison to other others of the VA-5 saw turnout raise to 63,366 in 2020 from 34,409 in 2018. Webb won Albermarle County with 68.22% roughly four points more than was earned in 2018. It is safe to say that Dr. Webb is not going away and very well may be back in 2022.

One interesting county metric is Campbell County where Bob Good served on the county board. Riggleman garnered 72.20% in Campbell County in 2018 while Good generated four points less in 2020 in his home county and turnout virtually doubled to 29,494.

Why are these metrics important?

In recent years the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has been criticized for not recognizing the demographic shift or trends in the Commonwealth. This has happened in places like Prince William County, Henrico County and Chesterfield County where Democrats are gaining seats not only in the General Assembly but also assisting the Democrats hold Congressional seats.

Ignoring these shifts and trends will result in the Virginia GOP be nothing more than a rural party. The results last week in the Commonwealth reflect a real danger to the Republican Party of Virginia in terms of the ground lost in the suburbs since the Tea Party movement almost a decade ago.

While many would never consider the VA-05 has anything but a rural district, the shifts are underway the counties outside places like Charlottesville. Thus far the Republicans are holding counties north of Charlottesville like Greene and Madison but the shifts in Albermarle and Nelson County should concern the GOP because more Virginians are moving into those areas.

Yes. Bob Good won the race in VA-05. However, the GOP must recognize that the Democrats are looking at the metrics and seeing a clear path to drawing closer and closer to flipping the VA-05 given the pattern other districts have experienced and factoring in that turnout will likely decline in 2022 without Trump on the ballot for the GOP. 

If the Democrats can maintain turnout percentages in 2022 they poise a real threat in the VA-5 unless the Commonwealth experiences redistricting plan from the newly approved commission that should be created during the next General Assembly session beginning in January 2021.

While the Republicans have held the district there is much work to be done for the 5th District Committee chaired by Melvin Adams. The most pressure could be on the GOTV committee chaired by Rick Buchanan with members Eric Brazael and Catherine Francis (RPV) but also the Ethics/Integrity committee which Eric Brazael is also a member and chaired by Nancy Rodland who secured one of the three position on the State Central Committee for the VA-05.

Due to all the circumstances that resulted in the nomination of Bob Good (R) in 2020, the VA-05 District Committee will certainly be under much more of a microscope than years past and one cannot help but wonder given the totality of the situation whether Bob Good goes unopposed in 2022 from within the GOP.

VA-5 covers part of the counties of Fauquier, Henry, and Bedford; and encompasses all of the counties of Rappahannock, Madison, Greene,  Albemarle, Nelson, Fluvanna, Buckingham, Cumberland, Appomattox, Campbell, Prince Edward, Charlotte, Lunenburg, Franklin, Pittsylvania, Halifax, Mecklenburg, and Brunswick; as well as the independent cities of Charlottesville and Danville. 




Monday, November 9, 2020

Virginia: What lies ahead?

Whether one believes the 2020 Election was fraudulent or not does not dismiss the fact that Virginia has solidly more than ever become politically a "blue" state. Those that dismiss that fact are either those that profit by not admitting as much or simply those ignoring facts.


2020 Election by Region


The Election of 2020 was what is called a "base" election. Period.

The problem in terms of Virginia for the Virginia GOP is it had to wage a two front battle throughout 2020. On one front it had to fight the surging Democratic machine and outside money has it had in 2019 but also had to deal with the "Never Trumpers" from within the Republican Party itself. Many of the latter subscribe to the notions of the Lincoln Project.

While rural Virginia turned out in 2020, so to did the urban centers that overwhelmingly support Democrats.  Trump appears to have made significant inroads with minorities in places like Norfolk and Hampton precincts in 2020 compared to 2016.

In Norfolk, Trump raised his support from 26% to 44.17% and in Hampton from 28.9% to 44.63% among voters. The question however remains whether these votes were mere "Trump" votes and not "GOP" votes and whether the Virginia GOP has the capacity to keep these votes in the upcoming election of 2021 for the Virginia Executive.

2020 Election by County/City in Virginia


What cannot be understated is Trump lost the Virginia suburbs. No path to victory exists in statewide elections without winning the suburban vote in Virginia. One glaringly concerning development for the Virginia GOP was the loss of Chesterfield County. Trump has won the county in 2016 but lost the county in 2020 but some seven points. Biden outperformed both Obama and Clinton in Chesterfield County which now mirrors Henrico County across the James River in suburban Richmond where Trump losts by some twenty nine points. This was a county formerly held by Rep. Eric Cantor (R) for over a decade until his defeat six years ago in a primary at the hands of the Tea Party.  ( See upcoming posts: "Virginia: How the Tea Party Changed Virginia?")

Virginia now is decisively "blue" in statewide elections or "popular votes".  Biden like Governor Ralph Northam (D) won overwhelmingly in Virginia and did so simply by raising the voter turnout in the very areas of the Commonwealth that the Democrats have controlled post 2013. Bidens 53.92% is virtually  identical to Northam's 53.90 in 2017. Whereas Gov. Northam (D) earned 1,409,175, V.P. Joe Biden in 2020 earned 2,377,061. That is almost 1 million more votes cast in 2020 for Biden than for Northam three years prior. One hope in 2021 for Republicans is that this level of turnout will not be sustainable in the November 2021 elections. This may not be that far fetched in truth given Hillary Clinton generated 1,981,473 in 2016 some 500,000 more votes than Northam in 2017, however the ground game and the infrastructure is more developed now than it was in 2017 for Democrats across the Commonwealth.




We have learned that the more things change the more they in fact stay the same in Virginia politics. Virginia has not supported a Republican for President since George W. Bush(2004)  and not a Republican Governor since Bob McDonnell (R) since 2009. The Congressional Delegation to Washington remains unchanged and sits 7-4 in favor of the Democrats and the Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats.

The hope for a resurgence for the Virginia GOP is the General Assembly. The Commonwealth will hold elections for the House of Delegates in 2021 which will be crucial for the GOP even more so than the Executive races that may be out of reach. Many believe that a Biden administration could open the door for the GOP in terms of next years race for Governor but much will hinge not on the Democrats but rather who the Virginia GOP actually nominates.

The Democrats claim that Trump was repudiated in Virginia last Tuesday. However, Trump did raise his vote count by almost 150,000 votes from 2016 to 2020. The Virginia GOP very well may be smart to look towards focusing on one aspect of the Trump appeal in terms of 2021 and that is his business acumen and  being an outsider. In other words, fresh new blood and not a retired from the GOP stable.

Two potential candidates that fit this strategy are Pete Synder and Glenn Youngkin. Two businessman that have been working during the pandemic to support Virginia workers and families throughout the crisis. Snyder's "Virginia 30 Day Fund" and Youngkin's "Virginia Ready" have been successful endeavors supporting the working class families of Virginia. While Snyder has some campaign experiences in Virginia, Youngkin would be a complete outsider with broad appeal to fiscal and moderate conservatives. Neither men even remotely resemble the "Trump" personality let alone would make any attempt to replicate it as others in the GOP have attempted thus far in Virginia. Other potential candidates include Delegate Kirk Cox or former State Senator Bill Carrico.

How much impact Trump will have on 2021 is still an unknown but any attempt to replicate Trump in a statewide race will be met with the same fate at the polls. The GOP requires an authentic voice to address what the Commonwealth will face in the coming years and with a budget shortfall of almost 3 billion and tax hikes almost a certainty it will be new voices that are required to attract suburban voters back into the GOP fold.

The 2021 General Assembly will loom large on the 2021 election cycle. How far the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party of Virginia yields its power will be center stage. The wing appears to be determined to go after law enforcement, gun reform, criminal sentencing reforms and a robust tax hike from sales tax to income tax. 

The biggest question today is whether the Virginia Democrats will over play their hand during the 2021 General Assembly session in Richmond.