VA-07 Election Anaysis: The More Things Change the More They Stay The Same

As the data and the metrics continue to come pouring in and the result in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District (VA-07) no longer appears in doubt, the Republican Party of Virginia should wast little time in diving into the data points that determined the election last week in favor of Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) for a second time in two years.

There should be some level of concern on the part of Republicans that should not be dismissed by the establishment interest or the political consultant class. Many Republican campaigns have used the same consultants over the course of the last decade that appear to have not read the electorate at large or the metrics on the ground especially well in suburban Virginia. There appears a widening disconnect between the GOP candidates and suburban voters, especially suburban women, minorities and "foreign born" voters.

The fact remains that the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has steadily lost the suburban vote over the last seven years. Consultants would like to lay much of this at the feet of President Trump however this is an easy out for them that often is not substantiated by the many of the metrics.

For example, in 2020 President Trump outperformed many of the Republican candidates for Congress. One rising star for the RPV is Aliscia Andrews (R) who ran in the VA-10 and managed to generated higher percentages than Trump in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties in her district. In her precincts in Prince William County, Andrews outperformed Trump by 13 points and in Fairfax County by 10 points followed by Loudoun County and Clarke County by 3 points.

Conversely, President Trump outperformed candidates like Bob Good (R) in VA-05 and Del. Nick Freitas in VA-07 in about half as many of the counties in the districts and not simply rural localities. In an election cycle where the media all but declared suburbia for the Democrats as a repudiation of Trump, not all of suburbia reflected that narrative.

Trump managed to raise his percentage in Henrico County from 36.60% in 2016 to 38.73% however Del. Nick Freitas came in under both Trump's 2020 performance as well as Rep. David Brat's 40.12% in 2018 for the seat in VA-07. Del. Freitas would lose Henrico 60.64% to 39.18 where Rep. Spanberger increased her voting percentage by 2 points from 2018. 

Spanberger also managed to raise her voting percentage in Chesterfield County just under a percent as the difference in the result resulted in the same 10 point margin in the Democrats favor. Spanberger outperformed Biden almost a point in Chesterfield and over a point in Henrico. Spanberger raised her vote count in Chesterfield County from 60,897 in 2018 to 80,161 in 2020 and in Henrico from 63,892 in 2018 to 80,421 in 2020. These two localities represent the lions share of votes cast in the VA-07.

Online surveys indicate that the one of the issues that put Delegate Nick Freitas on the defensive with suburban voters was the manner in which Spanberger used "preexisting conditions" and an "autism vote" to characterize Freitas. Spanberger raised over 4 million dollars and used these resources against Freitas in repeated ad campaigns and online media using the healthcare issues has a focal point.

Following the election in a caucus call, Rep. Spanberger stated that the Democrats "need to not ever use the term socialist or socialism ever again" and that the messaging regarding "defunding the police" nearly cost Spanberger the race in 2020. The comments illustrate the differences between Spanberger and the progressives in the Democrat Party and actually puts her at odds with many Virginia Democrats in Richmond. There is some suspicion that the Spanberger team leaked the audio from the caucus call given the team recognizes that 2022 may be in jeopardy for her if a Biden administration is directed by the progressives in Washington.

On the Republican side, many are already seeking Delegate Freitas to run again in 2022 given the tightness of the race but in evaluating the trends and metrics this may not actually be the best course of action for RPV given Freitas has now lost a U.S. Senate statewide primary and a Congressional race  within last two years.  Scott Taylor (R) sought to take back his seat lost in 2018 forgoing a U.S. Senate run and failed to win the VA-02 last week. 

In examining the House races that the GOP won in 2020, it is Republican women that seem to outperform expectations.  Two examples were winners Nicole Malliotakis (R) in NY-11 and Maria Salazar in FL-27.Given the makeup of the Virginia suburbs and the rising trends of women and minority owned businesses in suburban Richmond, the RPV needs to evaluate these metrics to ensure that any candidate has appeal to this metric.

The fact remains that any Republican nominated in the VA-07 in 2022 would likely win most of the rural districts. These voters must turnout in 2022 of course but the GOP must have a candidate that can appeal to at least 46% of the suburban electorate or the RPV to flip VA-07. How the RPV responds to a typical decline in turnout after a Presidential election will certainly be something to keep and eye on with its new Chairman in Rich Anderson.

The reason for this is that the Democrats increased its turnout but not its voting percentages compared to the Republicans. Only in Goochland and Powhatan did Spanberger raise her "rural" percentage  and it was by less than a percent. While this should concern the Democrats if the GOP can turnout voters in 2022 should Biden finally get certified as the winner, the Democrats will continue to focus on the suburban vote that has delivered Spanberger two elections in a row now. In back to back cycles, Spanberger has only won two counties out of ten in the district.

Concerning for the RPV is the following areas in "rural" Virginia that Del. Nick Freitas under performed Trump: (Trump/Freitas)

Amelia County  68.29%  (67.38)

Louisa County 60.66%  (60.07)

Nottoway County 56.89%  (55.10)

Powhatan County 71.24% (70.62)

Orange County 59.91%  (59.73%)

There is a question in terms of Democratic turnout if the election was a referendum on Trump in truth or support for Biden. Places like Louisa County which appears to be moving move with VA-05 counties in terms of trends saw an increase of about 2,500 Democratic voters over 2018  and Spanberger in 2020 outperformed Clinton by 4 points. Spanberger outperformed Clinton (34.83%) with 40.81% in 2020 adding 2,000 voters from 2016 in support for her campaign. Orange County experienced almost an identical result where Clinton earned 34.50% and Spanberger earned 40.08% in 2020. Spanberger took advantage of almost two thousand more Democratic voters over 2016 turnout for Clinton.

A positive for Delegate Freitas was he raised voting percentages in all but two counties; Henrico and Goochland.  It is important to also consider that Freitas (39.18%) under performed in terms of appeal to left leaning districts in terms of margin as State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) 2019 race performance where Dunnavant's 49.14% in Henrico helped her secure victory in a very tight election against Delegate Debra Rodman (D) 50.76% to 49.06%. Freitas did perform very well in established Republican precincts in Henrico but these could not propel him to a county victory where Spanberger won 60.64%.

The question than becomes will the RPV recognize the appeal and the criticisms such leaders as State Amanda Chase seeking the GOP nomination for Governor have launched against Dunnavant's positions though it appears they appeal to more Henrico voters than President Trump, Del.Freitas and Rep. Brat. Supporters of the GOP should also recognize the appeal that rising start Tina Ramirez may have in suburban Richmond in 2022 than Delegate Freitas or Rep. Brat have delivered. One could also argue that Senator Dunnavant (R) has more appeal to suburban voters as well historically and given the rise of Republican women and success at the polls this cannot be understated.

Suburban Turnout VA-07: 2016/2020----will leave you scratching your head

Chesterfield County:  85,045 (Trump) 65,019 (Trump) -

                                   81,074 (Clinton) 79,783 (Biden) -

Henrico County :       59,857 (Trump)  52,184 (Trump) -

                                   93,935 (Clinton) 80,032 (Biden) -

Trump lost voter support in the following counties from 2016 to 2020:

Chesterfield County 48.22% to 44.07%

Goochland County 59.73% to 58.80%

Spotsylvania County 55.25% to 54.84%

Orange County : 60.93% to 59.91%

Culpeper County: 60.08 to 59.05%

Freitas lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 (Brat) to 2020:

Henrico County 40.12% to 39.18%

Goochland County 59.58%- 58.94%

Spanberger (D) raised voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Chesterfield County: 54.09% to 55.03%

Henrico County : 58.67% to 60.64%

Powhatan County: 28.89% to 29.30%

Goochland County: 39.52% to 40.81%

Orange County: 40.07% to 40.08%

Spanberger (D) lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Amelia County: 32.87% to 32.49%

Louisa County: 40.47% to 39.73%

Spotsylvania County: 44.17% to 43.88%

Culpeper County: 40.68% to 39.98%

Nottoway County- 45.05% to 44.72%

All statistical information and voting metrics in this article come from two primary sources that Virginians can review.

1. https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/President_and_Vice_President_(CD_-_07).html

2. vpap.org/visuals/visual/presidential/

Guest Commentator

Jonathan Scott

Aliscia Andrews: Rising Star in Virginia GOP

 

Jonathan Scott

Guest Contributor

There are very few conservative candidates who have impressed me more the last few election cycles in Virginia than Tina Ramirez (VA7) and Aliscia Andrews the Republican nominee in the Virginia Tenth Congressional District. Both ladies are first time Republican candidates that determined to seek the nomination to challenge Democratic Congresswoman and are rising stars in the Virginia GOP.

Tina Ramirez's candidacy in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District fell short as the convention nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) who has run a few local races as well as a statewide primary race against Corey Stewart in 2018 for U.S. Senate in which he lost. The story with Rameriz very similar with Andrews in that very few gave either a chance to win the nomination especially given both were nominating conventions. Conventions in Virginia tend to produce the most entrenched interest of nominees and often through rather suspicious means. Ramirez  finished behind Freitas in balloting but performed extraordinary for a first time Congressional candidate with limited resources. Andrews, a Marine veteran and a a contractor with Department of Homeland Security path to the nomination was one of precision campaigning.

Aliscia Andrews had only 27% after the first round of balloting at the VA10 Convention. Most never gave Andrews much of a chance going into the convention however far too many underestimated to level of retail campaigning and relationship building she dedicated herself to throughout the campaign. After speaking with many participants in the convention many stated that while Andrews was not their first choice they respected the fact that she was always gracious and engaging and ran a very respectful campaign when it came to the other challengers. This in the end was the difference in getting her nominated.

The expected winner was Rob Jones. Jones in fact won the first two rounds of balloting securing 31% in the first round than 34% in the second. Andrews increased her votes to 33% in the second round after Jeffery Dove was removed from contention. By the third round it was down to Jones and Andrews after Matt Troung was removed after the second round where he earned 32% just one percent less than Andrews. In the third and final round Andrews defeated Jones 57-42%.

Andrews has been running a dedicated "WEXIT" campaign focused on defeating Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) in November. Andrews rarely concentrated any time focused on fellow potential nominees and stayed laser focused on speaking to voters (delegates) on how to unseat Wexton. "Wexit" is a play on the "Vexit" movement that popped up where some counties in Virginia have been courted by West Virginia to join it given they resemble West Virginia more than Virginia culturally and politically. Many Virginians in rural and mountain areas no longer see Richmond as relating to them and their lifestyles let alone respecting it. 

The VA10 represents all of Clarke, Frederick and Loudoun Counties in western Northern Virginia and incldues Winchester, Manassas, Manassas Park and parts of Fairfax and Prince William Counties.

Jennifer Wexton (D-V10) similar to Abigail Spanbeger (D-VA7) was elected during the so-called "blue wave" of 2018. Wexton defeated Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock(R) while Spanberger defeated Rep. David Brat (R). Both were successful in winning the suburban vote especially that of women. Wexton won Fairfax by 18 points over Comstock very similarly as Spanberger won Henrico County in suburban Richmond by the same margin. Whereas Spanberger only won two localities in the VA7 and won, Wexton five localities outright and one within 1% margin.

Andrews likely will win Clarke and Frederick County however will need to make major inroads in my childhood home in Loudoun County. Fairfax is strong Wexton country and the  urban areas of Manassas and Manassas Park are very Democratic with heavy immigrant demographics that have been supporting Virginia Demcorats the last few cycles in mass. Loudoun was once a strong "red" county but has seen  shift with the massive growth of the federal government and the growth that it has experienced resulting in a shift towards the left just like Fairfax experienced decades before.

Andrews however carries none of the "establishment" baggage that Wexton used effectively against Comstock so it will be interesting to see how the Wexton campaign plays things and whether it will simply run against Trump given its a Presidential cycle. Trump lost the VA10 by seven points in 2016 and performed roughly the same as Comstock in Loudoun County.

Having lived in both the counties of Loudoun and Chesterfield the two are very similar and will determine the outcomes of both Congressional races this November. Chesterfield is following the same journey politically as Loudoun as it to is now moving to the left at the polls in statewide elections though still supporting GOP candidates locally.

Andrews like Rameriz will not be defined by the outcomes of this race as both have already far exceeded any expectation most had with regard to their campaigns. 

2A Call to Arms: Join Local Committees and Virginia Militias

The groundswell of 2A grassroots has resulted in over 100 Virginia localities to adopt resolutions to protect citizens from the radical, extreme agenda being proposed  by Virginia Democrats this  General Assembly session in Richmond.

"Lobby Day" this year at the State Capital drew well over sixty thousand Second Amendment supporters from dozens of states from across the country. These supporters put a national spotlight on the gun control measures  being proposed by Virginia Democrats having secured the majority control in Richmond last November.

Dozens of 2A groups have formed all over the Commonwealth of Virginia and many of them have group pages on facebook. This movement has connected 2A supporters all across the Commonwealth resulting now in many new county militias being formed. Jennifer Bailey of Louisa County is one of the biggest organizers and proponents of the Virginia Militia Alliance. Jonathan Scott has organized the #2AStrong Movement in Virginia and Corey Hodges has organized the Chesterfield County 2A Preservation Society in one of Virginia's largest suburban counties in the state. These groups are all growing members and the militia groups are beginning to hold their first drilling days.

The Virginia Democrats have been organizing behind close doors hoping to weather the storm. The have had some bill deferred but have had many successes in Richmond. "Red Flag" and "One Gun a month" bills have passed through the Assembly. Some Republicans have even defected to join the Democrats in these measures.

While the grassroots is generating alot of support and assisting in identifying the many proposals that are alarming to Virginia voters there is much more that MUST be done. The political process is about power. While on "Lobby Day" power in numbers was demonstrated, it has largely been forgotten already by Richmond. Democrats and Republicans have both gone about their business as usual in Richmond.

So what is the solution?

It not just Lobby Day sadly.

The solution lies in your locality.

Many 2A supporters showed up to 2A rallies and meeting to influence local Board of Supervisors in passing "gun sanctuary" resolutions that has resulted in over one hundred such resolutions being adopted. While it was a massive success, the reality is the real power that 2A supporters must concentrate their sights on are the local political committees that reside within the localities they live. These are the true political power apparatuses that influence not only the locality but also the district in terms of future candidates.

If 2A supporters are serious about having political power than it is this local committees that must be joined in mass with the hopes of winning control so that the political positions supporting freedom and liberty are preserved. The power of these committees cannot be understated.


This committees all across the Commonwealth are full of false Republicans. While they may claim to be Republican they are certainly far from being Conservative let alone Constitutional Conservatives. many of these committees are full of "Never Trumpers" that did not work on behalf of the Trump campaign in their localities that resulted in Trump losing to Hillary Clinton in Virginia by five points.

This is why you have not seen President Trump in Virginia much sicne 2016.

But beware the move to the 2A theme in 2020. Elections on the horizon 2A Supporters need to not blindly buy the messaging. There are plenty of gun owners in the Assembly in Richmond that frankly are not pushing for less restriction but more.

Beware the opportunists. Some experience that in Chesterfield Rally late last year. Politicians are savy. Even more savy are the ones who claim to not be "politcians" but are the worst kind of politcial animals.

As it stands the 2A groups have determined that as of today the one and only true 2A fighter in Virginia on any ballot is Delegate Nick Freitas but there are a few others that deserve a nod as well but many are not aware of them.

Thomas Anthony Specialle found here https://www.facebook.com/thomas.speciale  running for U.S. Senate.

Aliscia Andrews found here : https://www.facebook.com/andrewsforcongress/  (Marines)

Andrew Knaggs found here:  https://www.facebook.com/AndrewKnaggsVA/   (Army)

Madison Downs found here :https://www.facebook.com/MadisonDownsforCongress/   (Marines)

So what can 2A supporters do today?

They can join their local Republican Committees and get involved. By doing so, the voice of the 2A movement will continue to be heard  and doubters will not be able to silence the movement like they did to the Tea Party Movement.

The 2A Movement has gained a ton of momentum but the special interest and establishment are betting that the movement will die out in 2020.

Supporters of the Second Amendment cannot let that happen.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/ (Chasing Victory in Virginia)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/virginiamilitiaalliance/   Virginia Militia Alliance)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/429364747755341/   (Chesterfield County 2A Preservation Society)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/578238489390036/   (#2AStrong in Virginia)