New Facebook Candidate Discussion Group Formed

The Covid-19 crisis has left most of us all at home of course and the new craze is of course zoom and all the new ways in which we all staying connected. Life however goes on and the thought process after weeks of deliberation is to move away from "echo chambers" and develop new means of discussion where people could voice concerns on issues and polices, seek answers to questions they may have regarding conventions, primaries or just elections in general. Things like the absentee balloting process and other areas related to elections but also all the candidates.

2020 Virginia has all of its Congressional seats on the ballot and one U.S. Seante seat.

Do you know who those are running for the nominations?

This group intends to introduce everyone to the candidates and often in their own words now that videos have become immensely popular.

"We are forming a new discussion group regarding all the candidates in Virginia for 2020-21. Hope you will join the group and provide insight and opinion on any of those on Virginia ballots in 2020-21"

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

2A Call to Arms: Join Local Committees and Virginia Militias

The groundswell of 2A grassroots has resulted in over 100 Virginia localities to adopt resolutions to protect citizens from the radical, extreme agenda being proposed  by Virginia Democrats this  General Assembly session in Richmond.

"Lobby Day" this year at the State Capital drew well over sixty thousand Second Amendment supporters from dozens of states from across the country. These supporters put a national spotlight on the gun control measures  being proposed by Virginia Democrats having secured the majority control in Richmond last November.

Dozens of 2A groups have formed all over the Commonwealth of Virginia and many of them have group pages on facebook. This movement has connected 2A supporters all across the Commonwealth resulting now in many new county militias being formed. Jennifer Bailey of Louisa County is one of the biggest organizers and proponents of the Virginia Militia Alliance. Jonathan Scott has organized the #2AStrong Movement in Virginia and Corey Hodges has organized the Chesterfield County 2A Preservation Society in one of Virginia's largest suburban counties in the state. These groups are all growing members and the militia groups are beginning to hold their first drilling days.

The Virginia Democrats have been organizing behind close doors hoping to weather the storm. The have had some bill deferred but have had many successes in Richmond. "Red Flag" and "One Gun a month" bills have passed through the Assembly. Some Republicans have even defected to join the Democrats in these measures.

While the grassroots is generating alot of support and assisting in identifying the many proposals that are alarming to Virginia voters there is much more that MUST be done. The political process is about power. While on "Lobby Day" power in numbers was demonstrated, it has largely been forgotten already by Richmond. Democrats and Republicans have both gone about their business as usual in Richmond.

So what is the solution?

It not just Lobby Day sadly.

The solution lies in your locality.

Many 2A supporters showed up to 2A rallies and meeting to influence local Board of Supervisors in passing "gun sanctuary" resolutions that has resulted in over one hundred such resolutions being adopted. While it was a massive success, the reality is the real power that 2A supporters must concentrate their sights on are the local political committees that reside within the localities they live. These are the true political power apparatuses that influence not only the locality but also the district in terms of future candidates.

If 2A supporters are serious about having political power than it is this local committees that must be joined in mass with the hopes of winning control so that the political positions supporting freedom and liberty are preserved. The power of these committees cannot be understated.


This committees all across the Commonwealth are full of false Republicans. While they may claim to be Republican they are certainly far from being Conservative let alone Constitutional Conservatives. many of these committees are full of "Never Trumpers" that did not work on behalf of the Trump campaign in their localities that resulted in Trump losing to Hillary Clinton in Virginia by five points.

This is why you have not seen President Trump in Virginia much sicne 2016.

But beware the move to the 2A theme in 2020. Elections on the horizon 2A Supporters need to not blindly buy the messaging. There are plenty of gun owners in the Assembly in Richmond that frankly are not pushing for less restriction but more.

Beware the opportunists. Some experience that in Chesterfield Rally late last year. Politicians are savy. Even more savy are the ones who claim to not be "politcians" but are the worst kind of politcial animals.

As it stands the 2A groups have determined that as of today the one and only true 2A fighter in Virginia on any ballot is Delegate Nick Freitas but there are a few others that deserve a nod as well but many are not aware of them.

Thomas Anthony Specialle found here https://www.facebook.com/thomas.speciale  running for U.S. Senate.

Aliscia Andrews found here : https://www.facebook.com/andrewsforcongress/  (Marines)

Andrew Knaggs found here:  https://www.facebook.com/AndrewKnaggsVA/   (Army)

Madison Downs found here :https://www.facebook.com/MadisonDownsforCongress/   (Marines)

So what can 2A supporters do today?

They can join their local Republican Committees and get involved. By doing so, the voice of the 2A movement will continue to be heard  and doubters will not be able to silence the movement like they did to the Tea Party Movement.

The 2A Movement has gained a ton of momentum but the special interest and establishment are betting that the movement will die out in 2020.

Supporters of the Second Amendment cannot let that happen.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/ (Chasing Victory in Virginia)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/virginiamilitiaalliance/   Virginia Militia Alliance)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/429364747755341/   (Chesterfield County 2A Preservation Society)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/578238489390036/   (#2AStrong in Virginia)

Chas(e)ing the Nomination in Virginia: State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R)

Seeking to capitalize on the growing level of "Virginia Populism" all across the Commonwealth of Virginia, State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) has announced her intention to run for the Republican nomination for Governor of Virginia four months ago on the steps of the State Capital.

Discussions here Chase for Governor: https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

Senator Chase announced her intentions on Monday standing on the historic steps of the Virginia State Capital on the very afternoon that the Virginia Senate Judiciary Committee voted down one of the most radical, extremist gun control measures ever introduce in Virginia political history. House Bill 961 that was sponsored in the Virginia House of Delegates by Progressive Delegate Mark Levine representing the 45th House District located in Arlington and Alexandria. HB 961 in effect would ban all "assault" style weapons or as Delegate characterizes as "weapons of war" as well as any and all sale of magazines that could hold twelve rounds or more of ammunition. Possession of these items would constitute a felony.

House Bill 961 was simply a similar version of Senate Bill 16 sponsored by Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw of Fairfax County that the Senator had pulled from consideration thus avoiding any debate on the matter in the Senate. Instead, Virginia Democrats in Richmond used the Levine Bill as a vehicle in the House first and then reviewed in committee by the Senate. The bill failed in committee 10-5 after four Democrats moved right and joined Republicans in opposition.

During the Campaign of 2019, Amanda Freeman Chase was one of the very few Republicans who did not run away from President Trump. Chase defeated a heavily funded challenger afer which Chase decided to no longer caucus with the Republican Party.

This means in effect Chase really is not recognized nor treated as a GOP legislator and does not meet with the others in the caucus nor is part of the communication. Chase was stripped of all her previous committee assignments save one once the Democrats took control. Chase in essence is a island in the Virginia Senate like Sander's in the U.S. Senate who in truth is an independent not a Democrat. Chase has done little to reunite with the GOP in 2020 and recent statements from the GOP appear to illustrate hat they remain unsupportive of her .

Chase's decision was made when the Republican leadership that lost control of the majority of both chambers in the Virginia General Assembly for the first time in almost two decades remained intact post election. The Republicans determined in effect to continue with "business as usual". The Leadership had failed to understand just how poor the messaging was in 2019 and determined to run the campaigns in the same manner they always had while the Democrats had evolved and implemented new innovative campaign mechanisms and infrastructure.

One other major factor little reported by the media is the failure of the Republican leadership to even fund the re-election bid of Senator Amanda Freeman Chase. While supporting other Republican Senate candidates the leadership chose not to assist Chase in her efforts. There were even rumors in early 2019 that the leadership was attempting to find someone to primary Senator Chase in a Republican primary. Chase had defeated long time friend of the leadership in Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary before the 2015 election cycle. The Chase victory in that primary came has as one of the most historic local races and only surpassed in Virginia politics by Congressman David Brat's upset of them Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R) in a Congressional Republican primary.

If you examine the campaign contributions in 2019 amidst one of the most heated political campaign seasons in thew history of Virginia, it is clear that the Republican leadership was unwilling to provide the level of support to Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that leadership provided others. Some have attempted to argue that this was a direct result of polling throughout the campaign that indicated that Chase had at least a four point lead in her race as late as August 2019, however it was after this polling that the Republican Party of Virginia in fact made several contributions in the amount beginning in September through October totally seventy seven thousand. That being said, the leadership and Senate political action committees failed to support Chase at all while supporting multiple other Republican candidates,

State Senators right next door to Chase's district in both the 10th and 12th  were provided support via the  Republican Party of Virginia and received enormous support from Republican State Leadership Committee and the Virginia Senate Republican Caucus. In fact Senate Majority Leader Thomas "Tommy" Norment's Senate Leadership/Candidate Committee failed to support Chase yet made heavy contributions in the districts next door to Chase's.

These are the facts relating to the level that the State GOP failed to support Senator Amanda Freeman Chase:

The Norment for Senate committee supported Senator Dunnavant VA12 with 231,00 and Senator Sturtevant VA10 with 709,750. Zero for Chase.

The Republican State Leadership Committee contributed 345,000 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 631,957. Zero for Chase.

The Virginia Senate Republican Caucus contributed 460,500 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 591,059. Zero for Chase.

**Dunnavant would win her re-election bid by about 1% over Delegate Debra Rodman while Sturtevant lost his seat in the Senate by 9 points**

There is little indication that the Va GOP will support Chase in 2021 thus far.

Many Virginians  following Chase's lead have grown very suspicious of Senator Dunnavant who in 2020 General Assembly session appeared to betray the contingent of Second Amendment supporters that campaigned on her behalf and supported her in Hanover County which is were the precincts that thrust her to re-election. Many supporters now on social media have flooded groups with buyers remorse given Dunnavant has cast votes that her challenger in 2019 very well would have cast.

The questions regarding the failure to support Senator Chase are rampant on social media. Chase supporters have become enraged at the Republican Party and the failure of leadership to contribute last November merely double downed on constituent suspicions of the State GOP that resulted after Senator Chase resigned from the Chesterfield County Republican Committee over committee rules relating to membership being required to support/endorse any GOP nominee within the county. Chase failed to endorse a GOP nominee in Karl Leonard for Sheriff instead opting for another option thus alienating herself from her own local committee.

Nevertheless and without any true party support, Senator Amanda Freeman Chase won re-election in 2019 by about nine points over Progressive Amanda Pohl. The race for the seat was one of the most contentious on social media in 2019. One thing that supporters love about Chase is her determination to never back down in a fight. This character trait has never bode well for the "good ole boy" establishment which  behind the scenes has always wish to in effect silence Chase who never seemed capable in their eyes of staying in line with the leadership.

The division between leadership and Chase intensified following the 2019 election. Given nothing according to Chase was addressed by the leadership with regard to the lost majority, Chase walked away. The Republicans would keep the status quo even after the leadership failed to keep control of the Assembly and failed to advance true conservative agendas in the 2019 Assembly session. In fact, the leadership remained quiet regarding Governor Northam's racist "blackface" circumstance as well as Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax had sexual assault allegations levied against him by two women from his own party. Republicans sat on their hands. Failed to push for investigation by committees in the Assembly they controlled. Meanwhile, Republicans all over Virginia sat watching the House of Representatives in Congress levy investigation after investigation against President Trump.

While  Chase never ran away from Trump in 2019 many others did. Nor did she shy away from calling out Governor Northam and Lt. Governor Fairfax and the Democratic hypocrisy relating to those politicians. Chase won handlily in a pro-Trump 2016 district in 2019.

The announcement to run for Governor in 2021 certainly raises Senator Amanda Freeman Chase's profile across Virginia but it also highlights the beginning of a splintering of the Republican Party of Virginia at large. Chase has an ability to speak to those that are frustrated with the State GOP and there is certainly a new coalition forming. The movement mirrors that of the Tea Party Movement back in 2010-12 in Virginia and the Republican leadership should take notice.


It has been Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that has been leading much of the opposition. Chase recently was scolded by Senator Janet Howell (D) of Fairfax County for using her social media to communicate Assembly business to Virginians. The truth is the transparency is not something that either leadership in the Assembly prefer but Chase has determined to deliver it. Chase has in effect made political enemies on both sides of the aisle. Chase asserted that anyone in the Assembly supporting such draconian measures like red flag laws could only be characterized as "traitors to Virginia". Howell's response has been to see to it that Amanda Freeman Chase's sponsored bills have been shelved.

The response by Senator Howell is indicative of the manner in which the new majority is conducting business in the Virginia General Assembly. Supporters of Chase were quick to point out that Howell ultimately was disenfranchising representation of Virginians that live in the Virginia 11th by not permitting the bills sponsored by Chase in committee for consideration.  These tactics may be acceptable in Fairfax County by its overwhelming Democrat majority but all across Virginia this is not how the "Peoples House" is supposed to work and how Virginia business is to be conducted. Howell actually has fueled even grater opposition to her Party and contributed to the awakening that is underway going into the elections of 2020 this Fall.

 

VA07 GOP Primary Contenders 

There is little doubt that Chase will be out this Summer.There is some uncertainty whether the State GOP leadership will get behind Trump this summer. Trump lost Virginia to Hillary Clinton in 2016 but won many of the Congressional Districts like the Virginia 7th held by Democrat Abigail Spanberger since 2018.  Spanberger appears vulnerable for the Democrats in 2020 as Spanberger supported impeachment, supports gun control measures pushed in Richmond and failed to support a pay raise for the military through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in Congress. Spanberger will need support of Chesterfield County in the 2020 Election. As it stands today, Tina Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs appear to be the front runners for the GOP nomination to face Abigail Spanberger however Nick Freitas is gaining ground and funding.

The 2021 Governor's race is almost twenty one months away so Senator Chase has amble time to form her own coalition while building bridges of support with others in the upcoming 2020 Election all across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Chase would be wise to campaign across Virginia in 2020 and connect with other areas of the Commonwealth. Supporters have already taking to social media to drive her brand and raise her identification across the state. A facebook group was created in late January called "Chase for Governor 2021" and already has over eleven thousand members and growing.

Follow here on social media tot stay informed.

https://www.facebook.com/TurnVARedAgain/   The Conservative State

https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/999287823791649/

Richmond Suburbia to Determine Outcome in 2020 Virginia 7th Congressional Race

There can be no argument that President Trump has tremendous support in the Virginia 7th Congressional District. Trump won the district by eight basis points and as it stands today if turnout in opposition to impeachment and Virginia gun control legislation is any indication that support is growing.

Rep. Abigail Spanbeger (D) the current holder of the VA07 seat is on record of being "all in" on gun control legislation and in support of impeachment of President Trump. Recent town halls with constituents have demonstrated there is increasing opposition to Spanberger's positions on both but make no mistake Spanberger is a very calculating politician and is playing to her suburban base.

Join in discussion here at Chasing Victory in Virginia: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

In 2018 the primary method  for U.S Senate selected Corey Stewart over Del. Nick Freitas and E.W. Jackson. The primary method was selected by the Virginia Republican Party State Central Committee. Stewart won the primary with 44.87% whereas Freitas earned 43.14%. Important to Freitas is the fact the majority of support for his Senate bid came from Central Virginia precincts that are included in the Virginia 7th Congressional District.

Nick Freitas won re-election in the Virginia 30th House District after having missed the filing deadline and having to run as a write-in candidate. While Freitas has latched on the 2A Gun Sanctuary movement as a means of elevating his profile given his recent declaration to run for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Spanberger for the VA-07 seat.

Here is some of the history in the VA-07:

David Brat (R) defeated Eric Cantor(R) in 2014 primary in the VA07 even though Cantor spent over 6 million dollars. Brat won the primary by just over ten points winning 55.55% to 44.45%. Brat went on to defeat the Democrat nominee Jack Trammell but earnjing 60% of the vote in the VA07. Brat was not primaried in 2016 and won handily in 2016 defeating Eileen Bedell with 57% of the vote.

In 2018, Abigail Spanberger won the Democrat nomination to face David Brat (R). Spanberger earned over 70% of the primary vote and would go on to defeat incumbent David Brat (R) in November 2018 50.34% to 48.40%.

It is important to note the while Democrats like to throw around the word "legitimate" the fact remains that Spanberger does not defeat David Brat (R) without the 2016 redistricting of the VA07. Redistricting removed Hanover precincts from the VA07 that had supported Republicans in prior elections by almost 70%.

For example in 2014, David Brat (R) earned over 26,000 votes in Hanover County and won the County with 69.52% of the vote. In 2016 the Hanover voters were removed from the VA07. Brat still defeated his challenger in 2016  but with about four points less of a margin. In 2018, Spanberger would defeat Brat by two basis points.

In 2016 Henrico County which had long been a Republican bell weather began to shift politically as the suburban county continued to grow with younger families and first time home buyers. In 2016 the race for the seat was a virtual dead heat between Brat and Bedell. Brat won Henrico with 50.77%.

Things would drastically change for Brat in 2018 in Henrico. Losing the support of the Hanover precincts would finally catch up with the Republicans as in 2018 Spanberger would carry Henrico by eighteen points with 58.57% of the vote with about five thousand less voters turning out than in 2016 which was Presidential year but almost forty thousand more voters than the election of 2014 that saw Brat win Henrico County by ten thousand votes.

So in 2014 Brat won Henrico County by ten thousand votes and in 2016 won  by about one thousand votes. In 2018, Rep. Abigail Spanberger literally decimated Republican in her home county of Henrico by twenty thousand votes.

20,000.

Spanberger base of support is predominately Henrico and Chesterfield. Henrico has not formally endorsed a real gun sanctuary resolution whereas Chesterfield County recently adopted one. While supporting Spanberger in 2018, Chesterfield recently elected a Republican Board of Supervisors and Republican members to both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates. Henrico County remains dominated by Democrat officials in the Assembly with the exception of State Senator Dunnavant (R).

The road to victory in the Virginia 7th Congressional District will be determined in Henrico County in 2020. David Brat (R) defeated Rep. Abigail Spanberger in every county in 2018 except Henrico County (-18pts) and Chesterfield(-10pts). Clearly Spanberger's advantage in the VA-07 is the suburban vote outside Richmond.

One important development though for Republicans is State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) representing Henrico County held her seat last November when the Virginia Democrats secured majority of that body. Dunnavant won with 50.76%. Dunnavant has transitioned herself to being a moderate and has been taking serious criticisms of late by conservative Republicans regarding her voting thus far in the 2020 General Assembly. Furthermore, Dunnavant ran away from President Trump during her campaigning in 2019.

The question remains which of the Republican potential nominees could secure enough support in the suburbia to offset the Spanberger base. Republican turnout is poised to be historic in the rural communities in large part due to recent actions taken by the Democrat controlled Virginia Assembly. Every county other than Henrico has taken up a gun sanctuary resolution in response to the Democrat extremism in Richmond. Increasing the turnout in the rural areas of the VA-07 will only better serve the prospects of defeating Spanberger given the narrow victory she had in 2018.

The biggest influence regarding turnout however will be President Trump. Having Trump on the ballot should have a direct impact on the ability for Republicans to turnout voters to support the nominee. Recently, all potential nominees for the Republican Party challenge have pledged to support whoever secure the nomination at the Virginia 7th Congressional District Convention.

Many Virginians would prefer to see Delegate Nick Freitas remain in the Assembly and run for Governor of Virginia in 2021. Currently the only two Republican officials that appear to be raising their profiles are Frietas and State Senator Amanda Chase(R). Supporters of Chase have already created a facebook group for supporting her potential candidacy for Governor. Chase currently has been the most vocal opponent of Governor Northam and the Democrats in Richmond and has in fact called for the recall of the Governor.

While Freitas has some name recognition resulting from his U.S. Senate bid, Tina Ramirez another potential nominee had out fund raised all others in the race at start of 2020. Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs offer voters very different backgrounds and the depth of the pool of candidates this cycle is very promising. The field is full of veterans and those working in government and outside advancing freedom and liberty.

https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1351000/andrew-f-knaggs/

Andrew Knaggs is graduate of the United States Military Academy and the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Combating Terrorism. Knaggs served as a Army Special Forces and served in Iraq. Both Delegates Freitas and John McGuire are veterans as well. Freitas served in the U.S. Army and McGuire was a Navy Seal.

The Convention in March (now July) will determine the nominee to face Spanberger and Delegates should consider that victory will certainly go through Richmond suburbia and any candidate selected will have to resonate much better than David Brat (R) in 2018. The campaign must also be run in a very coordinated manner in order to bite into the eighteen point deficiency that occurred in 2018 in Henrico County.

J.Scott