Amanda Chase (R) Clashes with Supporters: In Her Own Way and Words

State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase, Conservative running for the nomination for the Republican Party of Virginia for Governor 2021 has managed a slow start out of the gate. Controversy is not new to Chase and both the Blue Virginia and Richmond Times-Dispatch have been reporting on yet another one.

Chase of course is the Chesterfield County State Senator that was removed from her own county Republican Committee in September of last year and would quit the Virginia Republican Senate Caucus in November. Chase was isolated in Janaury of this year being strip of every one of her committees save one. Chase failed to have one piece of legisalation pass this session.

This is but one reporting of exchanges that Chase herself took to Facebook in a clear attempt to channel her inner Trump it seems given his massive twitter following. It appears as though this however is backfiring. While her new page continues to grow over the controversy the original grassroots page only appears to have lost about one hundred and fifty members of the 11,200 it was reported as having by the Times-Dispatch.

Join in discussion here : https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

Keep in mind Chase for Governor, the new campaign run site for Chase was less than 500 people at the beginning of April and now is at 10,000 so the Chase strategy of drawing controversy may have worked for her in terms of core supporters but statewide appears unlikely she is winning over any new supporters. In fact just the opposite. Savy short term but not long term. The controversies are stacking up on Chase.

Chase was highly criticized for what appeared to be the manner in which she took over last years Second Amendment rally in Chesterfield County. Little coordination between her and the grassroots groups (non VCDL) that had formed on facebook created tension as she appeared to take over the event eventhough other legislators and candidates who had orchestrated with groups were present.

Unbeknownst to Chase, the private groups began aligning behind Delegate Nick Freitas who Chase just recently endorsed stating that she does not typically endorse Republican candidates but was Nick Freitas. Chase wanted to tap into the very groups supporting Freitas who has amassed a coffer of over 600,000 in donations. The Chase campaign has yet to release its fundrasing numbers but some believe based on her issues with the supporters group that she is under performing and needing the groups to assist her. When the groups refused, Senator Chase went on the offensive.

Here are published screenshots from the dialogue engaged in by Chase and supporters. From Blue Virginia @bluevirginia :

Regardless of ones opinion regarding State Senator Chase these are interactions on her public "official" facebook page in which as the supporters group has claimed threatens to have the Capital Police look into these citizens.

Have the Capital Police investigated this matter. Have they contacted any of the participants in this matter is a question that State Senator Chase has refused to answer.

Chase claimed in the above conversation she did not know the grassroots supporters yet the Richmod.com article published states she texted with them numerous times. Chase would not answer her intial involvement with the grassroots group but published information demonstrates she joined the group on January 20, 2020 the month before she announced her run.

Chase claims her staff knows better than to contact citizens regarding donations during session yet could not provide an answer to reporters why the call logs provided of calls and texts show her staff contacting supporters. Chase would not address the reasons for these calls or nature of intent. One such call was by her campaign manager on February 25, 2020 while the Virginia General Assembly was clearly in session.  A voicemail message seeking a meeting was disclosed to have been received.

No State Legislator is permitteed to campaign or fundraise during session of the the Virginia General Assembly. It appears at the very least, Senator Chase need to explain why the call logs reflect calls from her staff to supporters during session and why she herself used her personal private cell phone number not listed on her State Senate page or her official facebook page. Chase has a personal account under Amanda Freeman Chase but would not comment when asked if she was personal facebook friends on her private page. There is also claimed to be a facbook interaction where Chase thanks specific named supporters and one of them is now the person she claims to have never known.

https://conservativestateus.blogspot.com/2020/05/bait-switch-chase-communications-prove.html

The Need for Dollars Makes for Strange Alliances

                      Does the Republican Party of Virginia need a complete overhaul?

In 2018, The Virginia GOP lost seats in Congress in historically right-leaning districts and then in 2019 lost control of the majority in Richmond. The Republicans have failed to control the Executive in Virginia since  election of 2009.

As it stands, the 2020 crop of Republican candidates are an impressive combination of diversity. This diversity however does that appear to be something that the Republican Party of Virginia seeks to highlight or use to change the narrative regarding the party that is constantly being portrayed by the opposition as non-inclusive. This diversity should be the very thing that the Party highlights in its campaigns to change the image of the Party that the Virginia Democrats have owned for the last decade.

The Republican Party of Virginia has not recovered in truth from the optic disaster of Charlottesville in 2017 placed sqaure at its foot and President Trump's. It has ceded the narrative to the Virginia Democrats crafted by former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) that that event was representative of the Virginia GOP. Few arguments were made of course  by the GOP in large part due to the fact that party consultants feared alienating those groups that ultimately would be funding campaigns with contributions. Something proving harder to come by.

One thing is clear is there is no unifying message with the Virginia GOP from the top down. Each campaign underway in 2020 appears to have its own identity while having to contend with a heavily funded message coming from Virginia Democrats seeking to hold the gains won in 2018. It further does not help that the messaging coming out of the campaign for the only declared Republican for Governor in 2021 at the same time is taking shots at the GOP Leadership on a weekly basis unwittingly doing the Demcorats job for them. It recently even took a shot at former Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (R).

It also does little help to any of the 2020 Congressional candidates that the only Republican declared thus far for the Governor's race next year is aligning with the very alt right groups behind Charlottesville in 2017. Reviewing the official pages of those running for Congress and the declared candidate for Governor it is easy to identify that the Virginia GOP has real issues centered around identity. While the Congressional candidates are speaking to policy, the Chase for Governor campaign is speaking to divisions and blame. The latest fundraising efforts of the latter are targeting fringe groups of the alt right for support and the old Corey Stewart coalition of hard liners who can only be described as nativists. Some have claimed that Chase is forming a "Tactical Vest" Army.

Its a dictomy that is lost on the lone GOP candidate for Governor. While the Congressional candidates in places like the Virginia 10th need to attract support from minorities, immigrants and suburban women, the Chase for Governor campaign is alienating them by the week. It is clear that the Chase for Governor campaign has made a strategic determination not to condemn the alt right groups but instead fundraise off them. This in effect places the entire Republican platform in 2020 in jeapardy.

The initial contribution reporting likely will demonstrate the small donor base of the Chase for Governor campaign thus far in 2020 and while the campaign very well may characterize it as a grassroots support the devil will be in the true details concerning where those donations are coming from. Known alt groups on social media are aligning with the messaging of the Chase for Governor campaign.

The impact of the divisions with the Virignia GOP will not really be fully understood until November. Losses by Congressional candidates will simply just embolden those that support Chase and her campaign by misunderstanding they have contributed to the very losses due to poor alignment with those seeking Congressional seats.

Aliscia Andrews (R) is one such Virginian running for the nomination in the Virginia 10th to face Jennifer Wexton (D) who defeated Barabara Comstock (R) in 2018. Andrews is a former Marine and has a strong Second Amendment supporter base but her base in the 2A movement is not the fringe alt right that often times may align with it. Andrews supporters are Constitution loving Virginians; not anarchists. There is a difference. The 2A movement is much broader than how it has been characterized in the media. Its more than merely those that will rally in tactical gear and armed. Its farmers, hunters, rural families and countless others in Virginia that simply want to get back to embracing liberty and freedom. These Virginians are not alt right wingers or Corey Stewart followers. This is easily demonstrated in the results of the 2018 Virginia Senate race in which Stewart lost handily to Tim Kaine (D) by almost 600,000 votes. Four years prior Republican Ed Gillespie lost to Senator Mark Warner by less than 20,000 votes in 2014.

Does the Republican Party of Virginia want to repeat that performance in 2021? Does it wish to suffer a third straight Executive "trifecta" loss in Virginia? This summer will be a critical crossroad for the Virignia GOP. It must prove to Virginians that it can pivot.

How Do You Solve A Problem Like "Amanda" Chase?

All of us remember the nuns in The Sound of Music right?  Remember the nuns singing "How de we solve a problem like Maria"? Well the Republican Party of Virginia clearly has its own problem and its not Maria. Its Amanda.

Amanda Freeman Chase (R) that is.

I hate to have to say it
But I very firmly feel
"Amanda's" not an asset to the abbey( "Party")

I'd like to say a word in her behalf
"Amanda" makes us laugh

How do you solve a problem like  " Amanda"?
How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
How do you find a word that means "Amanda"?
A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Many a thing you know you'd like to tell her
Many a thing she ought to understand
But how do you make her stay
And listen to all you say.....

(Original song by Rogers and Hammerstein from 1959 Sound of Music)

How dow we solve a problem like Amanda? 

State Senator Chase (R) is brazen and she wears it like a badge of honor. Her colleagues in the Virginia Senate characterize her as rash, spiteful and a "loose canon". Chase often dismisses these opinions of her demeanor in the Senate and plays up the "fighter" in her with a " I am not going to take it anymore" attitude. Meanwhile the Senator appears no longer respected by her own Party's leadership, no longer caucuses with the Republicans in the Senate and no longer is even recognized as a member of her own county Republican committee.

There is brazen and then there is political suicide. Chase even recently went so far as have a scuff up with her own supporters group created on behalf on facebook after moderators refused to cower to her demands regarding membership. It seems while Chase took extreme issue with how her membership was handled locally by the Chestefield GOP, she had little problem with attempting to control the membership and the content of a grassroots supporter group. Once moderators rejected her demands, Chase determined to more or less do what Chase typically does in her rash fashion and took to facebook to delegitmize the very people who created and ran the supporters group. This wasn't just rash but displayed her childish nature so many in Richmond have attributed to her.

Chase had been counting on leveraging the Second Amendment Sanctuary Movement in Virginia. Chase touted her record with the VCDL and the NRA at many rallies and many were obliged to join her in the fight against infrigements on Constitution rights. The biggest issue for Chase is the fact thus far it appears she has been unable to harness that movement as it translates to donations of support while other prominent leaders in the movement have generated much broader appeal and acceptance. 

For example, recent political contributions found on the Virginia Public Access Project demonstrate how Delegate Nick Freitas and Delegate John McGuire serving in the Virignia House of Delegates have dominated to space in terms of donations. Both men are running for the nomination in the Virginia Seventh for Congress. Freitas has raised $627,078 and McGuire $318,222. Chase recently endorsed Freitas for the nomination. Some considered the endorsement as a hedge against Freitas given his election in the Virginia Seventh is uncertain in the hope Freitas would not run for Governor in 2021 himself. Freitas formerly ran for the nomination to run for U.S. Senator losing to Corey Stewart in a primary.

The fundraising and donations for the Chase campaign appear marginal at best. According to many politcial historians a candidate must raise at the very least a million dollars to even have an realistic chance of securing the nomination in a statwewide race. While Chase has over a year until the June primary for the nomination one thing is clear; Chase has some real problems.

Chase's biggest challenge is herself. Chase has mastered the "attack dog" with the loud "bark" or the "fighter" personnas but that rarely translates to victory in Virignia. Chase would assert she is a proven "winner" having won the Virginia 11th two times and defeating and established Republican in her first race during the primary but what is lost on her message is Chase is still campaigning in the 11th. Chase is still speaking at her own district and has not embraced the reality that she will require to expand her message beyond a seventy percent pro-Trump district.  It does not take Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" to show that that message will have a very hard time resonating with Virginians in 2021. Even President Trump had a very hard time winning over the areas required to win in Virginia and lost by almost six points statewide. However, Trump in 2020 has raised almost four million dollars in his re-election bid which also creates an issue for other candidates fundraising.

Notwithstanding, Virignians have a tradition of sorts of electing a Governor opposite of the party of the sitting President with one recent exception. That was Governor Terry McAuliffe who defeated the Virginia GOP in a race many did not think he would in large part because of the campaign waged by the GOP. A campaign that many believe that Chase has already determined to run again hoping for a diffrent outcome.

But lets be clear. While Chase wishes to characterize herself as a populist. Chase is not Trump. No one is or can ever hope to be anymore than any one on the left could hope to be Obama. Attempting to present oneself as being such will only end in disappointment. Chase today appears more like Corey Stewart to most Virignians. Recently, Chase took it upon her self to "investigate" the accussation by a lone "fishing report" page from North Carolina that Governor Northam was vacationing there duyring the pandemic crisis. Chase launched a video on her official page concerning the page's claim that went viral. Her video arguably insinuated the Governor was sneaking away to his beach house while Virignians were locked down by his orders. While this circumstance certianly may have played well with her core base of support, it also had the opposite effect on most Virginians that saw the whole thing as a mere stunt.

The claim regarding Northam was dismissed within a day of the video going viral and hade to be walked back yet it simply reinforced yet another situation where Chase promised something and never delivered. Chase was widely criticized when it became clear her effort to Recall Governor Northam was nothing more than a publicity stunt to raise her political id in Virginia. Northam's recent approval polling undertaken by Virginia Commonwealth University demonstrates three out of four Virginians polled approve of the manner in which Northam ha conducted the responses to the pandemic crisis. The Chase campaign remais  locked in a battle of a war that will never be fought. Northam will not be her opposition in 2021 and one potential opponent former Governor Terry McAuliffe had much better approval ratings throughout his tenure than Northam has had.

Senator Chase while clearly the most focal in Richmond has not translated that voice into any success in 2020. Not a single one of her sponsored pieces of legislation in 2020 became law and she cast votes that certainly will alienate both Independents and Libertarians that may vote Republican and are always needed as part of any statewide coalition. Chase has been in a bitter battle with her own leadership since 2019 and it is clear that the leadership is not going to place any eggs in her basket in a run for Governor. Speculation abounds that the centrists in the Republican coaltion are desiring more competent and savvy candidate options while others would like to see Pete Synder return for another run. The Libertarians will be paying close attention as well and the Libertarian Party of Virginia will not support an Amanda Chase run for Governor. Whether they run a candidate at this point is hard to know but things should be clearer by August.

Chase has real work to be done. Much of it is within her own Party. Chase needs to mend fences with her own Party before she has any chance of statewide run. Chase can possibly win more people over with a little more grace than anything else. Otherwise, Chase is a real problem that Republicans will have to solve if there is any chance of winning a statewide race in Virginia in 2021.

As stated in the Daily Progress, “Amanda just doesn’t have a level of substance, maturity or seriousness that Virginians expect in a gubernatorial candidate,” Sen. Mark Obenshain, R-Rockingham.

The Real Uncertainty: The Future of Virginia's Bond Ratings

The Coronavirus 2020 shutdown ordered by Governor Ralph Northam (D) continues in the Commonwealth of Virginia with very little push back from the leaders in the Virginia General Assembly. Virginia continues to feel the effects of an "essential business only" Executive Order by Northam directly impacting every locality in the Commonwealth of Virginia and the underlying businesses in those localities that support them and provide the necessary revenue required for them to perform government services at the local level.

While so many questions remain,  the biggest one is why has the Governor nor any member of the General Assembly sought to address the evolutionary impact of this shutdown by calling for a summit or leadership round table meeting to address the direct impacts on small business and local and state government alike?

Where is the true leadership being demonstrated to take Virginia out of this crisis financially? Other than suspending the implementation of the new budget, what has been advanced as anything remotely appearing as a  bipartisan solution to come to the aid of Virginians?

Both the Commonwealth and local governments derive much of its operating revenues from consumer spending and the taxes that are derived from such activity. The Commonwealth requires "sales taxes" while many local governments require "food taxes" and other taxes joined with the Commonwealth to fund government services. As a result of lost revenue, small business operators will not make tax obligations nor continue to employ Virginians thus eliminating "payroll taxes". Transportation tolls (road taxes) have all but dried up as a result of the shutdown as well and with so few Virginians on the roads with "stay at home" orders the revenue generated from the "gas tax" has fallen substantially.

Why has their not been an economic team assemble to address how Virginia will come out of this shutdown now anticipated to be June or even July? Where are the plans to address the shortfalls experienced at the local level which desperately requires revenue to sustain itself. Revenue that Governor Northam is currently denying them with his executive orders.

The biggest question than no one in the Assembly is raising is what will be the impacts of the shutdown on the bonds issued by the Commonwealth and the ratings levels that these bonds had in late 2019 compared to what they will be at the end of this year. If those ratings decline and in all likelihood they will across the board in many states as well as local governments throughout Virginia, the capacity to borrow and the costs of borrowing will only increase thus costing the Commonwealth millions more than ever anticipated.


"Bonds are used in the Commonwealth of Virginia to finance the costs of long term capital improvements throughout the state. The Commonwealth does not use bonds to close budget gaps or fix cash flow problems. Virginia bonds are primarily used for new construction and improvements at our institutions of higher education, transportation and port facilities, schools and state park and correctional facilities. Investing in Virginia bonds supports these endeavors, and interest paid to bond holders is exempt from Virginia income taxation, and in most cases, federal income taxation.

The Commonwealth's general obligation bonds are currently rated AAA/Aaa/AAA by Fitch, Moody's and Standard and Poor's rating agencies respectively. Rating agencies focus on several key factors in assessing a state's credit quality: control of debt burden, economic vitality/diversity, fiscal performance, and administrative capabilities. Most of the Commonwealth’s appropriation supported bond programs, which require an annual appropriation for debt service, are rated one notch below the general obligation bonds at AA+/Aa1/AA+. This would include bonds issued by certain state authorities, such as the Virginia Public Building Authority and the Virginia College Building Authority" (Virginia Treasury, Virginia.gov)

The following is a typical rating scale for bonds issued by government entities:

Aaa	Obligations rated Aaa are judged to be of the highest quality, subject to the lowest level of credit risk.
Aa	Obligations rated Aa are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low credit risk.
A	Obligations rated A are judged to be upper-medium grade and are subject to low credit risk.
Baa	Obligations rated Baa are judged to be medium-grade and subject to moderate credit risk and as such may possess certain speculative characteristics.
Ba	Obligations rated Ba are judged to be speculative and are subject to substantial credit risk.
B	Obligations rated B are considered speculative and are subject to high credit risk.
Caa	Obligations rated Caa are judged to be speculative of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk.
Ca	Obligations rated Ca are highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery of principal and interest.
C	Obligations rated C are the lowest rated and are typically in default, with little prospect for recovery of principal or interest.

This above scale happens to be for the reputable Moody's rating service.

Virginia Performs, originally developed by the Council on Virginia's Future (2004-2017), was a performance leadership and accountability system within the Virginia state government whose goal was to evaluate government financial performances and outcomes in order to inspire and support Virginians toward healthier lives and strong and resilient families. It basically evaluated the government independently.

Virginia Performs took the data and demonstrated how government was impacting the lives of Virginians and most especially the quality of life in Virginia. It focuses on all the aspects of government from education, work force, transportation to finance. If a role or function of government was performed than Virginia Performs examined the outcomes.

Today, where is the true oversight coming from regarding the actions that the Governor or the General Assembly are implementing?

Where is there an economic adviser summit being called for by Governor Northam or the Republican leadership in Richmond?

The Council of Virginia's Future existed from 2004-2017. It began with a vision to guide the future taking into account responsible economic growth, quality of life, good government and all well educated electorate seeking to shape the future of Virginia in a dedicated, positive manner and direction.

"Virginia Performs" performed an essential role in informing Virginians as to the financial health of the Commonwealth of Virginia and provided a website as part of the Virginia.Gov site to dissimilate information to Virginians regarding State finances.

Virginia Performs however was "sunset" on July 1, 2017. This was done while the Republicans in Virginia controlled the majority of seats in the Virginia General Assembly in Richmond. This begs the question now whether this was in fact in the best interest of the Commonwealth.

A state's bond rating influences how much taxpayer money the state can save by securing competitive loans; it also serves as a measure of a state's financial and administrative status. Virginia's AAA bond rating, the best rating possible, is a reflection of the confidence placed in the Commonwealth's fiscal health.

"Virginia's bond rating allows it to borrow money at the most competitive rates available. Having a good credit rating means Virginia can save millions of taxpayer dollars in interest payments when it finances debt, such as borrowing for construction costs. With less interest to pay, Virginia's resources can be used where needed, and the state can maintain its favorable tax rates for citizens and industries.

Bond ratings are also a measure of a state's financial reputation. Finance professionals conduct a rigorous examination of a state's fiscal management practices over a significant period of time and express their level of confidence in that state’s ability to safely meet its scheduled interest and principal repayments. A bond rating of AAA is highest (best), and D is lowest (worst). A high bond rating makes the state's bonds more attractive to investors.

Note: A bond is an investment instrument through which an investor loans money to a public or private entity in return for earning interest. Typically, the interest a bond issuer must pay the purchaser is higher when the risk that the issuer will not be able to repay the loan is greater. Three major rating firms conduct research and set a rating based on their assessment of the risk that the loan will not be repaid as scheduled. This rating then influences the amount of interest the bond issuer must pay the investor" (Virginia Performs 2017)

A variety of factors can influence a bond rating, including:

• The amount of debt a state holds in relation to the size and health of its overall economy.
• A state's long-term financial management practices, including whether it meets its interest and principal repayments on time and has a back-up plan to make sure it can meet its obligations.
• Changing economic conditions that result in lower state revenues.
• Inaccurate forecasting that fails to anticipate revenue shortfall.

Virginia's bond rating is the responsibility of its governmental leadership. The executive and legislative branches must cooperate to ensure that Virginia's practices are sound by:

• Planning strategically.
• Independently studying problem areas and recommending sound improvement strategies.
• Accurately forecasting expenditures and revenues.
• Borrowing prudently.
• Objectively monitoring fiscal processes and procedures.

No one is talking about the impact this shutdown will have long term on Virginia financials and in effect its bond ratings. This fact should scare every Virginian because as ratings on bonds fall it is historically significant that taxes rises on citizens both at the state and local levels.

J.Scott

The Distancing of Corey Stewart: The Only Path to Victory

The Republican Party of Virginia is at a crossroads.

The Republicans find the coalitions that were created decades ago showing signs of wear and some have argued that the very foundation is crumbling. The loss of the majority in both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly crystallized this very point as many Republicans stayed home from the polls in a critical election year to determine control of government in Virginia.

The coalition that delivered so many victories for the Republican Party of Virginia has been one consisting of fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, libertarians and Republicans which many now describe as "liberal" Republicans. The last major victory for the coalition was the election of Governor Bob McDonnell in 2009 however there were signs years before that the coalition was being held together by some of the best and oldest Virginia conservative politicians. Deliberate and careful not to turn the party too far right as to move the Virginia center and independent vote to the center left.

This is of course exactly what happened once before in 2005 with the election of Democrat Tim Kaine  formerly Lt. Governor of Virginia and Mayor of Richmond City when the Republicans nominated Terry Kilgore as their candidate for Governor. Many Virginia Republicans moved left and supported Kaine whose message at the time appeared more moderate than even Governor Mark Warner's views who was elected Governor in 2001 defeating Mark Early.

Governor McDonnell proved to be the perfect political mix for Virginians within the coalition and his election in 2009 saw very little cross over voting on the part of Republicans. Governor McDonnell, a Virginia moderate in ever since, defeated Democrat-Conservative Creigh Deeds earning over 58% of the vote. No Governor in the 1997 - 2017 period earned a higher percentage of the vote than Bob McDonnell and yet the Republican Party of Virginia has ignored most of the lessons of the 2009 election. Though the Democrats have controlled the Governorship ever since McDonnell left office the State GOP leadership has remained relatively the same and many have been highly critical of the fact it is not a true supporter of President Trump.

In fact, President Trump lost Virginia in 2016 as did former Presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney and many attribute that to the fact that the Republican leadership did not truly support his candidacy and were in truth supporters of Jeb Bush(R) in the Republican primary. One year after Virginia supported President Obama for President and turning Virginia blue electorally for the first time in decades, Republican Bob McDonnell cleaned Creigh Deed's clock in 2009 winning with the highest margin (58%) even surpassing Jim Gilmore's 55% in 1997.

The election of 2009 demonstrated the manner in which a Virginia statewide campaign must be managed as opposed to the statewide campaign run by Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart ran for Senator. In losing in 2012, George Allen (R) earned 46.96% of the vote and in 2014 Ed Gillespie earned 48.34% but in 2017 in his bid for U.S. Senate Corey Stewart earned just 41% of the vote while Tim Kaine earned 57% increasing his voter count by almost six percentage points since his initial 2012 election won over George Allen (R).

How could Virginia Republicans go from the election of 2009 in which Governor Bob McDonnell won so handily over Creigh Deeds a rural, pro gun (at the time) Democrat with 58.63% of the vote to electing Democrats Tim Kaine (Senator) 52.87% in 2012, Terry McAuliffe (Governor) 47.74% in 2014 , Mark Warner (Senator) 49.15% in 2014 and re elect Tim Kaine (Senator) with 57% in 2017 as well as elect Ralph Northam to Governor with 53.90% in 2017?

The simple answer is nominating candidates like Corey Stewart. There are even some today who see Stewart as a "leader" in the Virginia conservative movement but his results in the 2017 election demonstrate just how far his ideological views are from most Virginians. Stewart ceded between eight to ten points away in his election in large part because he ignored the very underpinnings of the coalition that was keeping the Republican Party relevant in Virginia. The majority of Republicans in the Assembly did not share Stewart's "native" views, especially those Republicans whom had seen their support decline due to redistricting over the years in places like Northern Virginia where today no Republican holds office in the House of Delegates, Virginia Senate or House of Representatives where constituents reside in Fairfax County.

Corey Stewart fundamentally set back the Republican Party of Virginia a decade and as demographics of the Commonwealth change in the coming years it may take another decade to overcome him and his messaging.

The 8th, 10th, and 11th Congressional in Northern Virginia seats are all held by Democrats. Stewart is from Prince William County and served on its Board of Supervisors for over a decade and yet his voice failed to resonate with Virginians living in the very he served. Stewart lost to Tim Kaine (D) in his own county by a 65-33% margin in the area of Virginia that should have known Stewart best. Stewart lost Loudoun County 63-34% and Fairfax County 71-27 and in nearby Arlington and Alexandria Stewart topped out at about 20%. Stewart lost significantly in suburban areas like Henrico County and Chesterfield County as well as Virginia Beach.

In Fairfax County, which is the largest locality in Virginia has (17) seats in the House of Delegates and (9) seats in the Virginia Senate ALL held by Democrats. Not a single seat is held by a Virginia Republican and is a direct result of the post 2013 period in Virginia where the coalition that comprises the Party is crumbling.

Often there will be arguments that people like Sarvis, Redpath, Hyra, Waters and Potts are reasons why the Republicans lost elections. Their participation created three candidate races that many argue hurt Republican candidates but these assertions miss the greater point here and that is that these candidates were the expression from within the Republican Party itself of the crumbling taking place of the foundation that had once provided Republicans with victory. Sarvis gets the most criticism because in 2014 many argue his 2.43% cost Ed Gillespie a victory over Mark Warner. Warner won the Senate race in 2014 with 49.15%.

Yet where is it required for Libertarians in the coalition to support the Republican nominees they feel do not represent their value of liberty, ethics and freedom? Republicans have dismissed the views of Libertarians to such an extent that now the Libertarian Party of Virginia is growing its ranks. Republicans took advantage of the fact they could rely on the Libertarian vote because the Libertarian Party of Virginia does not always run candidates in every race and often get their votes when there is no official Libertarian candidate on the ballot. The fact that Sarvis earned 6.52% in a bid for Governor in 2013 and 2.43% in 2014 for Senate should have foreshadowed the coming reality for the State GOP. Many have further condemned Sarvis for the Ken Cuccinelli's loss in the race for Governor in 2013 where he earned 45.22% and Governor Terry McAuliffe earned 47.74% while Sarvis pulled in an historic 6.52% for a Libertarian in a statewide race.

Why the Republican leadership did not address the issue before them remains a mystery. The Libertarian ranks continue to grow, the Stewart faction of the Party continues to alienate voters and now you see the leadership distance itself from "maverick" Republican leaders like State Senator Amanda Chase (R) VA-11. Chase no longer caucuses with the Republican leadership which strip her of committee assignments of any relevance but has determined to run for Virginia Governor in 2021.

The State GOP has a real identity crisis on its hands now that has been building for over a decade in truth. Its messaging is completely inept given the current political landscape in Virginia. It continues to wither from within its own ranks as the coalition falls apart. One issue that has fueled this trend is the "gun sanctuary" movement that has swept the Commonwealth since November 2019. This movement brings Libertarian, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Conservatives together forming a roughly about a thirty percent block of the Republican Party. Senator Amanda Chase has been a vocal proponent of the movement while the majority of establishment Republicans have remained silent. Not only has this silence not gone unnoticed, it is fueling a rejection of the Liberal Republicanism that permeates the State GOP today. Some Republicans in the Assembly have actually gone along with various proposals counter to the Constitution and State Leadership has done little to address any of these issues with clear, concise leadership.

The identity crisis has spilled over into the once "conservative" media and blogosphere in Virginia where once Conservative pages no longer represent conservatism. Pages like Bearing Drift that claim to be conservative but in truth are now more Liberal Republicans who rarely support President Trump or The Republican Standard whose variety of conservatism is highly questionable given its closer alignment with the extreme views of the alt right especially in the areas of immigration similar to the Bull Elephant. These pages are less concerned with the Constitution in truth let alone personal liberty or freedom and where as The Bull Elephant makes a claim to being libertarian news as well as conservative it in no way represents fundamental libertarian values or ethics.

In 2020 the truth is that Republican Party of Virginia has no clear leader or voice. There appears to be little effort outside of the grassroots that are taking it upon themselves to mobilize from Republican leadership to address 2021 and House of delegate races let alone building a bridge within the coalition to ensure unity in the 2021 Governor's race.

What is clear is the State GOP must reject the "Stewart" and new advocate former conservative commentator Michelle Malkin who has been rejected my many conservative groups like Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) over her continued xenophobic assertions joining the "alt right" movement. Candidates like Senator Amanda Freeman Chase had better recognize that embracing that element will only detract from votes in a general election and ensure a Democratic victory once again. Chase would be wise to distance herself from that extremism all together going into the nominating process in 2021.

The campaign for Governor in 2021 must be issue-centric and focused on the areas of opportunity that exists that all Virginians can get behind solving. Examining the Bob McDonnell campaign of 2009 and heeding those lessons would be wise for any Republican nominee. If a candidate goes down that dark political road of social norming or messaging perceived as hateful or angry directed at groups like immigrants as in the case of the Stewart "alt right" fringes one thing is certain; the Democrats will win yet another statewide race in the Commonwealth of Virginia and more and more Libertarians, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Patriots will in fact "social distance" themselves from the Republican Party itself.

Chas(e)ing the Nomination in Virginia: State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R)

Seeking to capitalize on the growing level of "Virginia Populism" all across the Commonwealth of Virginia, State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) has announced her intention to run for the Republican nomination for Governor of Virginia four months ago on the steps of the State Capital.

Discussions here Chase for Governor: https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

Senator Chase announced her intentions on Monday standing on the historic steps of the Virginia State Capital on the very afternoon that the Virginia Senate Judiciary Committee voted down one of the most radical, extremist gun control measures ever introduce in Virginia political history. House Bill 961 that was sponsored in the Virginia House of Delegates by Progressive Delegate Mark Levine representing the 45th House District located in Arlington and Alexandria. HB 961 in effect would ban all "assault" style weapons or as Delegate characterizes as "weapons of war" as well as any and all sale of magazines that could hold twelve rounds or more of ammunition. Possession of these items would constitute a felony.

House Bill 961 was simply a similar version of Senate Bill 16 sponsored by Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw of Fairfax County that the Senator had pulled from consideration thus avoiding any debate on the matter in the Senate. Instead, Virginia Democrats in Richmond used the Levine Bill as a vehicle in the House first and then reviewed in committee by the Senate. The bill failed in committee 10-5 after four Democrats moved right and joined Republicans in opposition.

During the Campaign of 2019, Amanda Freeman Chase was one of the very few Republicans who did not run away from President Trump. Chase defeated a heavily funded challenger afer which Chase decided to no longer caucus with the Republican Party.

This means in effect Chase really is not recognized nor treated as a GOP legislator and does not meet with the others in the caucus nor is part of the communication. Chase was stripped of all her previous committee assignments save one once the Democrats took control. Chase in essence is a island in the Virginia Senate like Sander's in the U.S. Senate who in truth is an independent not a Democrat. Chase has done little to reunite with the GOP in 2020 and recent statements from the GOP appear to illustrate hat they remain unsupportive of her .

Chase's decision was made when the Republican leadership that lost control of the majority of both chambers in the Virginia General Assembly for the first time in almost two decades remained intact post election. The Republicans determined in effect to continue with "business as usual". The Leadership had failed to understand just how poor the messaging was in 2019 and determined to run the campaigns in the same manner they always had while the Democrats had evolved and implemented new innovative campaign mechanisms and infrastructure.

One other major factor little reported by the media is the failure of the Republican leadership to even fund the re-election bid of Senator Amanda Freeman Chase. While supporting other Republican Senate candidates the leadership chose not to assist Chase in her efforts. There were even rumors in early 2019 that the leadership was attempting to find someone to primary Senator Chase in a Republican primary. Chase had defeated long time friend of the leadership in Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary before the 2015 election cycle. The Chase victory in that primary came has as one of the most historic local races and only surpassed in Virginia politics by Congressman David Brat's upset of them Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R) in a Congressional Republican primary.

If you examine the campaign contributions in 2019 amidst one of the most heated political campaign seasons in thew history of Virginia, it is clear that the Republican leadership was unwilling to provide the level of support to Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that leadership provided others. Some have attempted to argue that this was a direct result of polling throughout the campaign that indicated that Chase had at least a four point lead in her race as late as August 2019, however it was after this polling that the Republican Party of Virginia in fact made several contributions in the amount beginning in September through October totally seventy seven thousand. That being said, the leadership and Senate political action committees failed to support Chase at all while supporting multiple other Republican candidates,

State Senators right next door to Chase's district in both the 10th and 12th  were provided support via the  Republican Party of Virginia and received enormous support from Republican State Leadership Committee and the Virginia Senate Republican Caucus. In fact Senate Majority Leader Thomas "Tommy" Norment's Senate Leadership/Candidate Committee failed to support Chase yet made heavy contributions in the districts next door to Chase's.

These are the facts relating to the level that the State GOP failed to support Senator Amanda Freeman Chase:

The Norment for Senate committee supported Senator Dunnavant VA12 with 231,00 and Senator Sturtevant VA10 with 709,750. Zero for Chase.

The Republican State Leadership Committee contributed 345,000 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 631,957. Zero for Chase.

The Virginia Senate Republican Caucus contributed 460,500 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 591,059. Zero for Chase.

**Dunnavant would win her re-election bid by about 1% over Delegate Debra Rodman while Sturtevant lost his seat in the Senate by 9 points**

There is little indication that the Va GOP will support Chase in 2021 thus far.

Many Virginians  following Chase's lead have grown very suspicious of Senator Dunnavant who in 2020 General Assembly session appeared to betray the contingent of Second Amendment supporters that campaigned on her behalf and supported her in Hanover County which is were the precincts that thrust her to re-election. Many supporters now on social media have flooded groups with buyers remorse given Dunnavant has cast votes that her challenger in 2019 very well would have cast.

The questions regarding the failure to support Senator Chase are rampant on social media. Chase supporters have become enraged at the Republican Party and the failure of leadership to contribute last November merely double downed on constituent suspicions of the State GOP that resulted after Senator Chase resigned from the Chesterfield County Republican Committee over committee rules relating to membership being required to support/endorse any GOP nominee within the county. Chase failed to endorse a GOP nominee in Karl Leonard for Sheriff instead opting for another option thus alienating herself from her own local committee.

Nevertheless and without any true party support, Senator Amanda Freeman Chase won re-election in 2019 by about nine points over Progressive Amanda Pohl. The race for the seat was one of the most contentious on social media in 2019. One thing that supporters love about Chase is her determination to never back down in a fight. This character trait has never bode well for the "good ole boy" establishment which  behind the scenes has always wish to in effect silence Chase who never seemed capable in their eyes of staying in line with the leadership.

The division between leadership and Chase intensified following the 2019 election. Given nothing according to Chase was addressed by the leadership with regard to the lost majority, Chase walked away. The Republicans would keep the status quo even after the leadership failed to keep control of the Assembly and failed to advance true conservative agendas in the 2019 Assembly session. In fact, the leadership remained quiet regarding Governor Northam's racist "blackface" circumstance as well as Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax had sexual assault allegations levied against him by two women from his own party. Republicans sat on their hands. Failed to push for investigation by committees in the Assembly they controlled. Meanwhile, Republicans all over Virginia sat watching the House of Representatives in Congress levy investigation after investigation against President Trump.

While  Chase never ran away from Trump in 2019 many others did. Nor did she shy away from calling out Governor Northam and Lt. Governor Fairfax and the Democratic hypocrisy relating to those politicians. Chase won handlily in a pro-Trump 2016 district in 2019.

The announcement to run for Governor in 2021 certainly raises Senator Amanda Freeman Chase's profile across Virginia but it also highlights the beginning of a splintering of the Republican Party of Virginia at large. Chase has an ability to speak to those that are frustrated with the State GOP and there is certainly a new coalition forming. The movement mirrors that of the Tea Party Movement back in 2010-12 in Virginia and the Republican leadership should take notice.


It has been Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that has been leading much of the opposition. Chase recently was scolded by Senator Janet Howell (D) of Fairfax County for using her social media to communicate Assembly business to Virginians. The truth is the transparency is not something that either leadership in the Assembly prefer but Chase has determined to deliver it. Chase has in effect made political enemies on both sides of the aisle. Chase asserted that anyone in the Assembly supporting such draconian measures like red flag laws could only be characterized as "traitors to Virginia". Howell's response has been to see to it that Amanda Freeman Chase's sponsored bills have been shelved.

The response by Senator Howell is indicative of the manner in which the new majority is conducting business in the Virginia General Assembly. Supporters of Chase were quick to point out that Howell ultimately was disenfranchising representation of Virginians that live in the Virginia 11th by not permitting the bills sponsored by Chase in committee for consideration.  These tactics may be acceptable in Fairfax County by its overwhelming Democrat majority but all across Virginia this is not how the "Peoples House" is supposed to work and how Virginia business is to be conducted. Howell actually has fueled even grater opposition to her Party and contributed to the awakening that is underway going into the elections of 2020 this Fall.

 

VA07 GOP Primary Contenders 

There is little doubt that Chase will be out this Summer.There is some uncertainty whether the State GOP leadership will get behind Trump this summer. Trump lost Virginia to Hillary Clinton in 2016 but won many of the Congressional Districts like the Virginia 7th held by Democrat Abigail Spanberger since 2018.  Spanberger appears vulnerable for the Democrats in 2020 as Spanberger supported impeachment, supports gun control measures pushed in Richmond and failed to support a pay raise for the military through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in Congress. Spanberger will need support of Chesterfield County in the 2020 Election. As it stands today, Tina Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs appear to be the front runners for the GOP nomination to face Abigail Spanberger however Nick Freitas is gaining ground and funding.

The 2021 Governor's race is almost twenty one months away so Senator Chase has amble time to form her own coalition while building bridges of support with others in the upcoming 2020 Election all across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Chase would be wise to campaign across Virginia in 2020 and connect with other areas of the Commonwealth. Supporters have already taking to social media to drive her brand and raise her identification across the state. A facebook group was created in late January called "Chase for Governor 2021" and already has over eleven thousand members and growing.

Follow here on social media tot stay informed.

https://www.facebook.com/TurnVARedAgain/   The Conservative State

https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/999287823791649/