How Do You Solve A Problem Like "Amanda" Chase?

All of us remember the nuns in The Sound of Music right?  Remember the nuns singing "How de we solve a problem like Maria"? Well the Republican Party of Virginia clearly has its own problem and its not Maria. Its Amanda.

Amanda Freeman Chase (R) that is.

I hate to have to say it
But I very firmly feel
"Amanda's" not an asset to the abbey( "Party")

I'd like to say a word in her behalf
"Amanda" makes us laugh

How do you solve a problem like  " Amanda"?
How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
How do you find a word that means "Amanda"?
A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Many a thing you know you'd like to tell her
Many a thing she ought to understand
But how do you make her stay
And listen to all you say.....

(Original song by Rogers and Hammerstein from 1959 Sound of Music)

How dow we solve a problem like Amanda? 

State Senator Chase (R) is brazen and she wears it like a badge of honor. Her colleagues in the Virginia Senate characterize her as rash, spiteful and a "loose canon". Chase often dismisses these opinions of her demeanor in the Senate and plays up the "fighter" in her with a " I am not going to take it anymore" attitude. Meanwhile the Senator appears no longer respected by her own Party's leadership, no longer caucuses with the Republicans in the Senate and no longer is even recognized as a member of her own county Republican committee.

There is brazen and then there is political suicide. Chase even recently went so far as have a scuff up with her own supporters group created on behalf on facebook after moderators refused to cower to her demands regarding membership. It seems while Chase took extreme issue with how her membership was handled locally by the Chestefield GOP, she had little problem with attempting to control the membership and the content of a grassroots supporter group. Once moderators rejected her demands, Chase determined to more or less do what Chase typically does in her rash fashion and took to facebook to delegitmize the very people who created and ran the supporters group. This wasn't just rash but displayed her childish nature so many in Richmond have attributed to her.

Chase had been counting on leveraging the Second Amendment Sanctuary Movement in Virginia. Chase touted her record with the VCDL and the NRA at many rallies and many were obliged to join her in the fight against infrigements on Constitution rights. The biggest issue for Chase is the fact thus far it appears she has been unable to harness that movement as it translates to donations of support while other prominent leaders in the movement have generated much broader appeal and acceptance. 

For example, recent political contributions found on the Virginia Public Access Project demonstrate how Delegate Nick Freitas and Delegate John McGuire serving in the Virignia House of Delegates have dominated to space in terms of donations. Both men are running for the nomination in the Virginia Seventh for Congress. Freitas has raised $627,078 and McGuire $318,222. Chase recently endorsed Freitas for the nomination. Some considered the endorsement as a hedge against Freitas given his election in the Virginia Seventh is uncertain in the hope Freitas would not run for Governor in 2021 himself. Freitas formerly ran for the nomination to run for U.S. Senator losing to Corey Stewart in a primary.

The fundraising and donations for the Chase campaign appear marginal at best. According to many politcial historians a candidate must raise at the very least a million dollars to even have an realistic chance of securing the nomination in a statwewide race. While Chase has over a year until the June primary for the nomination one thing is clear; Chase has some real problems.

Chase's biggest challenge is herself. Chase has mastered the "attack dog" with the loud "bark" or the "fighter" personnas but that rarely translates to victory in Virignia. Chase would assert she is a proven "winner" having won the Virginia 11th two times and defeating and established Republican in her first race during the primary but what is lost on her message is Chase is still campaigning in the 11th. Chase is still speaking at her own district and has not embraced the reality that she will require to expand her message beyond a seventy percent pro-Trump district.  It does not take Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" to show that that message will have a very hard time resonating with Virginians in 2021. Even President Trump had a very hard time winning over the areas required to win in Virginia and lost by almost six points statewide. However, Trump in 2020 has raised almost four million dollars in his re-election bid which also creates an issue for other candidates fundraising.

Notwithstanding, Virignians have a tradition of sorts of electing a Governor opposite of the party of the sitting President with one recent exception. That was Governor Terry McAuliffe who defeated the Virginia GOP in a race many did not think he would in large part because of the campaign waged by the GOP. A campaign that many believe that Chase has already determined to run again hoping for a diffrent outcome.

But lets be clear. While Chase wishes to characterize herself as a populist. Chase is not Trump. No one is or can ever hope to be anymore than any one on the left could hope to be Obama. Attempting to present oneself as being such will only end in disappointment. Chase today appears more like Corey Stewart to most Virignians. Recently, Chase took it upon her self to "investigate" the accussation by a lone "fishing report" page from North Carolina that Governor Northam was vacationing there duyring the pandemic crisis. Chase launched a video on her official page concerning the page's claim that went viral. Her video arguably insinuated the Governor was sneaking away to his beach house while Virignians were locked down by his orders. While this circumstance certianly may have played well with her core base of support, it also had the opposite effect on most Virginians that saw the whole thing as a mere stunt.

The claim regarding Northam was dismissed within a day of the video going viral and hade to be walked back yet it simply reinforced yet another situation where Chase promised something and never delivered. Chase was widely criticized when it became clear her effort to Recall Governor Northam was nothing more than a publicity stunt to raise her political id in Virginia. Northam's recent approval polling undertaken by Virginia Commonwealth University demonstrates three out of four Virginians polled approve of the manner in which Northam ha conducted the responses to the pandemic crisis. The Chase campaign remais  locked in a battle of a war that will never be fought. Northam will not be her opposition in 2021 and one potential opponent former Governor Terry McAuliffe had much better approval ratings throughout his tenure than Northam has had.

Senator Chase while clearly the most focal in Richmond has not translated that voice into any success in 2020. Not a single one of her sponsored pieces of legislation in 2020 became law and she cast votes that certainly will alienate both Independents and Libertarians that may vote Republican and are always needed as part of any statewide coalition. Chase has been in a bitter battle with her own leadership since 2019 and it is clear that the leadership is not going to place any eggs in her basket in a run for Governor. Speculation abounds that the centrists in the Republican coaltion are desiring more competent and savvy candidate options while others would like to see Pete Synder return for another run. The Libertarians will be paying close attention as well and the Libertarian Party of Virginia will not support an Amanda Chase run for Governor. Whether they run a candidate at this point is hard to know but things should be clearer by August.

Chase has real work to be done. Much of it is within her own Party. Chase needs to mend fences with her own Party before she has any chance of statewide run. Chase can possibly win more people over with a little more grace than anything else. Otherwise, Chase is a real problem that Republicans will have to solve if there is any chance of winning a statewide race in Virginia in 2021.

As stated in the Daily Progress, “Amanda just doesn’t have a level of substance, maturity or seriousness that Virginians expect in a gubernatorial candidate,” Sen. Mark Obenshain, R-Rockingham.