The Real Division of the Virginia GOP: Senate Bill 868

No single bill in the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session represents the growing division within the Virginia Republican Party than Senate Bill 868.

The Republican Party of Virginia is quickly approaching a cross roads that will forever shape the Party for a generation or more. There has been little examination by Republican Leadership in Richmond to address the factors that contributed to the loss of the majority in the General Assembly after holding it for almost three decades. Media outlets took the lead on the easy analysis regarding last November in terms of turnout claimed to have delivered the Virginia Democrats its new majority in both the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate.

The deeper analysis speaks to the contributing factors that thus far the Republican Party of Virginia has been unwilling to either accept or refuses to address with its messaging. In fairness, the issue is not across the board within the elected ranks of the Party but a divide exists that is being exasperated by the social conservative elements continual displeasure with the fiscal conservatives who have little interest in elevating social issues to the top of the platform. The social conservative messaging while have appeal to a significant percentage of the Party has not broaden the recruitment of Republican candidates especially in Northern Virginia. The policy positions of the social conservative wing of the Party are not align with the growing population of Northern Virginia where Republicans no longer hold a single seat in areas where they once dominated especially in the House of Delegates. For example, there is not a single seat in the General Assembly held by a single Republican representing any district from Fairfax County. Fairfax is the largest locality in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

In 2019, the Republican Party failed to attract, recruit and run candidates in over thirty races across the Commonwealth. This would be a hard enough issue to face moving forward but with the greater divisions growing within the Party along ideological lines it very well could boil over to disaster for the Virginia GOP in 2021. In 2021, seats in the House of Delegates will be back on the ballot along with the Governor's race in Virginia. The Republican nominee to run for Governor very well could have a direct impact on all the down ballot races.

The growing trends demonstrate the registering of younger voters especially in suburban areas. Indications from the Democratic Primary on Super Tuesday show that more and more younger voters are engaged at a time when the Virginia Republican Party is becoming older and more rural where frankly the populations do not compare to the higher density urban areas where Democratic candidates are dominating. These fact translates to a muddy picture for future statewide races for Republican candidates without broad support from the electorate and that includes younger families.

Virginia population is continuing to climb and will approach nine million in the coming decades. The majority of the population increase is coming in Northern Virginia where Republicans are already losing support. Support that now is said to have fallen below 30% for the first time in over forty years within the region. The demographics of the region that many  believe ultimately will determine all statewide races moving forward is changing. The region is becoming much more diverse than every before.

By 2030 every single "Baby Boomer" in Virginia will be 65 years old or older. The largest and fastest growing ethnic population in Northern Virginia is Asian followed by the Hispanic population. In Fairfax County alone the immigrant population is exploding. The Asian American population now represents 19.3% and the Hispanic American population represents 16.4% in Fairfax County far exceeding the African American population.

Fairfax, Loudoun and Arlington are some of the wealthiest counties in all of America yet the Republican messaging is now not resonating. Localities with medium incomes that now have reached two times the national average continue to vote Democratic. Is the Republican Party of Virginia incapable of appealing to these voters? Is the Party trying to appeal to them with its messaging? Or have elements within the Party turned voters off with the so called "principled" positions that have deep traditional ties to the moral majority of previous political eras?

If the messaging regarding immigrants and other demographics within our country are any indication than there appears to be a true lack of understanding and leadership from the Republican Party of Virginia regarding the future political landscape of Virginia. If the "Conservative" rank and file want to continue their efforts to politically alienate Virginia voters the direct result certainly will be a continuation of the statewide defeats during general election ballot boxes.

Today while the majority of the GOP appears willing to put the safety and welfare of Virginians before politics and support Governor Northam regarding the pandemic shutdown, the opportunists within the Party are attempting to rile up the conservative base with rhetoric that totally paints the Party as a whole as dysfunctional. While this may rally people to causes of course and raise the level of certain politicians it also will create a bitter taste for most Virginians who do not believe that the shutdown is someone being orchestrated as an assault of religion across the Commonwealth.

These attempts further reinforce the controversial positions that the conservative wing of the Republican Party of Virginia have taken in recent years. Last year it was a concerted effort to condemn immigrants. Conservatives failed to craft a consistent message regarding "illegal" or "unlawfully present" aliens but rather came across attacking all immigrants in Virginia while demonstrating support for border wall security.

During the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session, Social Conservative leaders within the Virginia GOP decided to in effect support discrimination. That will come as a shock to many within the Party but the actions of the minority within the Party will forever characterize the entire Party during upcoming elections. The history of the Republican Party and its fight for civil rights and that legacy continues to be undermined by votes taken by the social conservative wing of the Party. How could social conservatives break with the Republican leadership on such a crucial issue in Virginia and one that the majority of Virginian support?

Senate Bill 868 was proposed to address " unlawful discrimination in public accommodations and employment in the Virginia Human Rights Act. Currently, under the Act there is no cause of action for discrimination in public accommodations, and the only causes of action for discrimination in employment are for (i) unlawful discharge on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, or childbirth or related medical conditions including lactation by employers employing more than five but fewer than 15 persons and (ii) unlawful discharge on the basis of age by employers employing more than five but fewer than 20 persons. The bill allows the causes of action to be pursued privately by the aggrieved person or, in certain circumstances, by the Attorney General. Before a civil cause of action may be brought in a court of the Commonwealth, an aggrieved individual must file a complaint with the Division of Human Rights of the Department of Law, participate in an administrative process, and receive a notice of his right to commence a civil action. The bill prohibits discrimination in public and private employment on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. The bill also codifies for state and local government employment the current prohibitions on discrimination in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, age, marital status, disability, or status as a veteran. Additionally, the bill (a) prohibits discrimination in public accommodations on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran; (b) prohibits discrimination in credit on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, disability, and status as a veteran; and (c) adds discrimination on the basis of an individual's sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran as an unlawful housing practice."

The bill clearly is designed to prevent discrimination in Virginia with regard to housing, public accommodation , and employment on basis of sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, national origin, and even veteran status. How could any Republican not support such protections from discrimination?

Does the Republican Party really want to take the position that Virginia families with children that identify with a certain gender or transgender or a particular sexual orientation should grow up in a Virginia where their civil rights are meaningless? That they have to tell their children as they grow up that in Virginia they can be discriminated against or worse are not protected? Do those who claim to be taking the "principled" position of support for discrimination really think that Virginians are going to accept their position as anything other than bigotry? At the same time these very same Republicans reject the Equal Rights Amendment, they fail to either understand or comprehend the optics of these positions upon younger families throughout Virginia.

The following Republicans supported Senate Bill 868 which passed the General Assembly:
Cosgrove, Dunnavant, Hanger, Kiggans, Norment, Vogel--

The following Republicans voted against Senate Bill 868:
Chafin, Chase, DeSteph, McDougle, Newman, Obenshain, Peake, Pillion, Reeves, Ruff, Stanley, Stuart, Suetterlein

Should the Republican Party of Virginia wish to run on a voting record of supporting discrimination against the very populations that are growing in Virginia that is the message that is being sent loud and clear with policy position being taken in the Assembly.

Much of governance is compromise. What has been displayed in recent years in Richmond by Republican lawmakers is an unwillingness for many to compromise. This inability some argue cost the Republican Party the majority in the General Assembly. Virginians have been moving in the opposite direction and the demographics moving forward in Virginia warrant a new message to attract supporters not detract them.

The 2021 Assembly and Governor's race provide a critical opportunity to articulate a new Republican message for Virginians; ALL Virginians.