State Senator Amanda Chase (I-R) from Chesterfield County representing the VA-11 Senate District today posted on her social media page that she would make an announcement today regarding her intentions regarding the 2021 Virginia Governors race.
Chase has teased for months that she would run as an independent having walked away from the GOP Senate Caucus last November after the selections were made for leadership within the caucus and after earlier in that month being removed from her local GOP committee the Chesterfield County Republican Committee (CCRC) for violating party rules.
Here is the release from State Senator Chase:
"TODAY is a BIG DAY!!
Will I run as a Republican or Independent?
This will be determined today.
While representing ALL people in the Senate as a Republican for the past 5 years; I am proudly a Christian, Conservative, Republican and in that order.
My voting record confirms that I have a solid conservative voting record:
100% rating VCDL, ALL 5 years
A rating, NRA
100% rating, Family Foundation, ALL 5 years
100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years
Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party (see end of post for Fact Checks)
The Republican Party of Virginia decides today if we have a convention or statewide primary for the Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General 2021 candidates.
As many of you know I’ve said I will fully seek the Republican nomination for Governor in a primary only. If a political consultant controlled party convention is chosen I will run as an Independent. I made this announcement publicly back in February when I announced my run for Governor."
The prospects of a successful independent run are slim statewide in Virginia for any candidate but for Chase even more so. Chase appears to now have moved in the opposite direction that the majority of Virginians. Chase is prominent former Tea Part activist from early in the last decade and worked on campaigns before herself challenging an incumbent in the VA-11. Chase challenged Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary and defeated him in 2015. Chase held great promise in 2016 as she entered the State Senate, but appears to have squandered her early successes. With the election of President Trump and the reactionary election of 2018 across Virginia that resulted in significant losses to the Virginia GOP, Chase moved further right in both rhetoric and position that got her elected. Chase presented herself as a "reformer" yet in five years in the Virginia Senate has done little to change state government rather spending more of her time wrangling with media and with the Virginia GOP. Chase has attempted to run what could only be described as a "Trump-light" effort using the same social media tactics to build a name for herself. Chase has portrayed herself as the "anti-Northam" candidate and has focused much of her campaign on campaigning against Northam whom will not be on the ballot next year and ignoring the declared candidates from the Democratic Party.
This strategy has placed her in direct opposition of 60% of Virginians who recently in polling support Northam and his handling of the pandemic and very well may be alienating voters. Just across the Potomac River, Governor Larry Hogan (R) who some believe will run for President in 2024 has unleashed a massive WEAR THE DAM MASK" campaign while Chase appears to continue her opposition to masks and mask mandates by Governor Northam. Most polling points to the overwhelming support for mask coverings during this stage of the pandemic and Chase's opposition appears unaligned with the direction most in Virginia are moving.
This is not unusual for Chase. Her entire campaign appears predicated on failed positions. Many political analysts see Chase has attempting to resurrect the Tea Party movement in Virginia however the last six years has proven that Virginians have rejected such positions overall and candidates. Chase speaks to her work with the Rep. David Brat campaign in his election to Congress where the Tea Party was effective in removing Rep. Eric Cantor via primary. This could be the reason as to why Chase seeks a primary over convention.
Another aspect that many insiders believe is that Chase while running for Governor fully understands that it is a very uphill road and has intentions on running for Congress in 2022 now that Del. Nick Freitas has lost his bid to unseat Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) in Virginia 7th. Chase has called Freitas a friend and was one of the few endorsements Chase made in 2020. Chase actively was involved on the campaign trail for her own race while attending many events in the VA-07 alongside Freitas.
It is important to note that Chase could not help Freitas secure victory last month in her own county of Chesterfield where Freitas lost by 11 points. Chase has not acknowledged the fact that Chesterfield County has changed and is no longer a "solid red" county in the GOP stable. Chesterfield for the first time in the post WWII supported a Democrat for President in former VP Joe Biden and in the Congressional race supported Spanberger for a second time in four years.
Chase in truth has her own issues at home regardless of the status of the nominating process. Chase won her district in 2015 by 27 poonts yet only managed a win in 2019 by 9 points. That is a significant decline in support and even more alarming when you consider in 2016 Chase's district was one of the most overwhelmingly supportive of President Trump.
The biggest concern right now for any campaign is money not nomination method. Chase has been in the race the longest of any candidate of either party and has raised the least amount of any declared candidate as of Sept. 1. Chase has only raised 200,000 where freshman Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy (D) has already raised over 750,000 and joined the race some four months after Chase. Now that a second candidate in Del. Kirk Cox (R) has officially declared, Chase appears to have lost an immense opportunity the last ten months when she had all the oxygen.
What can only be described as "classic Chase", Chase is demanding that the Virginia GOP do what she wants in terms of the nominating process issuing a threat of sorts however such efforts backfired on Chase in November 2019 ultimately resulting with her departure from the GOP Caucus. Chase preference for the primary process is interesting given her lack of money. Typically conventions regardless of the Chase claims on her page costs candidates less money that statewide primaries. The audience of a convention of course is much more defined and smaller. The issue that Chase faces with these convention goers is they have been to the circus and seen the strings more times than not. Many are actively engaged in politics far more than average general election voters. Chase herself was a delegate to the convention held in August that nominated Del. Nick Freitas over first time candidate Tina Ramirez. Many have asserted that these convention goers know Chase far too well and would not support her initially on a first ballot and where depending upon how many declare to run could see Chase out of the nomination race after the first balloting.
If Chase does declare today to run as an "independent" than Virginians can fully expect to see her running for Congress in 2022 after losing a third party bid for Governor in 2021. Chase does have other issues to sort out at home as well as many rumbles have begun in Chesterfield to unseat Chase as State Senator in 2023. Much will be determined by the redistricting planning that may go into effect before the next Virginia Senate race in 2023 with new lines being drawn but one thing is certain; Chase will be primaried as she primaried Senator Steve Martin in 2015.
**** Fact Check on the Amanda Chase Facebook post today*****
Chase stated the following:
"100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years "
Fact Check:
Chase received rating of 83% 2016-17 her first two sessions in the Virginia Senate not 5 years at 100%
Chase claims "Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party":
Ratings- Virginia Tea Party Federation 94% (2019) Fiscal Conservative Issues
84% (2019) Conservative Issues
100% (2012-19) Civil Libertarian Issues
Other examples of Legislators with Same ratings as Chase or better:
Del. Kirk Cox (R) 100% VCDL rating 2020
100% Family Foundation 2020
100% Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2019
100% Nat. Federation of Independent Business 2017-19
Sen. Jill Vogel (R) 100% National Rifle Association
100% Virginia Tea Party Federation (2017- H/I)
Del. Nick Freitas (R) 100% VCDL rating
Important to note Ratings: CHASE
American Conservative Union 89% (2018)
Virginia Chamber of Commerce 73% (2019)
