Will State Senator Amanda Chase Run as an Independent?

State Senator Amanda Chase (I-R) from Chesterfield County representing the VA-11 Senate District today posted on her social media page that she would make an announcement today regarding her intentions regarding the 2021 Virginia Governors race.

Chase has teased for months that she would run as an independent having walked away from the GOP Senate Caucus last November after the selections were made for leadership within the caucus and after earlier in that month being removed from her local GOP committee the Chesterfield County Republican Committee (CCRC) for violating party rules.

Here is the release from State Senator Chase:

"TODAY is a BIG DAY!!

Will I run as a Republican or Independent?

This will be determined today.

While representing ALL people in the Senate as a Republican for the past 5 years; I am proudly a Christian, Conservative, Republican and in that order.

My voting record confirms that I have a solid conservative voting record:

100% rating VCDL, ALL 5 years

A rating, NRA

100% rating, Family Foundation, ALL 5 years

100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years

Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party (see end of post for Fact Checks)

The Republican Party of Virginia decides today if we have a convention or statewide primary for the Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General 2021 candidates.

As many of you know I’ve said I will fully seek the Republican nomination for Governor in a primary only. If a political consultant controlled party convention is chosen I will run as an Independent. I made this announcement publicly back in February when I announced my run for Governor."

The prospects of a successful independent run are slim statewide in Virginia for any candidate but for Chase even more so. Chase appears to now have moved in the opposite direction that the majority of Virginians. Chase is prominent former Tea Part activist from early in the last decade and worked on campaigns before herself challenging an incumbent in the VA-11. Chase challenged Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary and defeated him in 2015. Chase held great promise in 2016 as she entered the State Senate, but appears to have squandered her early successes. With the election of President Trump and the reactionary election of 2018 across Virginia that resulted in significant losses to the Virginia GOP, Chase moved further right in both rhetoric and position that got her elected. Chase presented herself as a "reformer" yet in five years in the Virginia Senate has done little to change state government rather spending more of her time wrangling with media and with the Virginia GOP. Chase has attempted to run what could only be described as a "Trump-light" effort using the same social media tactics to build a name for herself. Chase has portrayed herself as the "anti-Northam" candidate and has focused much of her campaign on campaigning against Northam whom will not be on the ballot next year and ignoring the declared candidates from the Democratic Party.

This strategy has placed her in direct opposition of 60% of Virginians who recently in polling support Northam and his handling of the pandemic and very well may be alienating voters. Just across the Potomac River, Governor Larry Hogan (R) who some believe will run for President in 2024 has unleashed a massive WEAR THE DAM MASK" campaign while Chase appears to continue her opposition to masks and mask mandates by Governor Northam. Most polling points to the overwhelming support for mask coverings during this stage of the pandemic and Chase's opposition appears unaligned with the direction most in Virginia are moving.

This is not unusual for Chase. Her entire campaign appears predicated on failed positions. Many political analysts see Chase has attempting to resurrect the Tea Party movement in Virginia however the last six years has proven that Virginians have rejected such positions overall and candidates. Chase speaks to her work with the Rep. David Brat campaign in his election to Congress where the Tea Party was effective in removing Rep. Eric Cantor via primary. This could be the reason as to why Chase seeks a primary over convention.

Another aspect that many insiders believe is that Chase while running for Governor fully understands that it is a very uphill road and has intentions on running for Congress in 2022 now that Del. Nick Freitas has lost his bid to unseat Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) in Virginia 7th. Chase has called Freitas a friend and was one of the few endorsements Chase made in 2020. Chase actively was involved on the campaign trail for her own race while attending many events in the VA-07 alongside Freitas.

It is important to note that Chase could not help Freitas secure victory last month in her own county of Chesterfield where Freitas lost by 11 points. Chase has not acknowledged the fact that Chesterfield County has changed and is no longer a "solid red" county in the GOP stable. Chesterfield for the first time in the post WWII supported a Democrat for President in former VP Joe Biden and in the Congressional race supported Spanberger for a second time in four years.

Chase in truth has her own issues at home regardless of the status of the nominating process. Chase won her district in 2015 by 27 poonts yet only managed a win in 2019 by 9 points. That is a significant decline in support and even more alarming when you consider in 2016 Chase's district was one of the most overwhelmingly supportive of President Trump.

The biggest concern right now for any campaign is money not nomination method. Chase has been in the race the longest of any candidate of either party and has raised the least amount of any declared candidate as of Sept. 1. Chase has only raised 200,000 where freshman Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy (D) has already raised over 750,000 and joined the race some four months after Chase. Now that a second candidate in Del. Kirk Cox (R) has officially declared, Chase appears to have lost an immense opportunity the last ten months when she had all the oxygen.

What can only be described as "classic Chase", Chase is demanding that the Virginia GOP do what she wants in terms of the nominating process issuing a threat of sorts however such efforts backfired on Chase in November 2019 ultimately resulting with her departure from the GOP Caucus. Chase preference for the primary process is interesting given her lack of money. Typically conventions regardless of the Chase claims on her page costs candidates less money that statewide primaries. The audience of a convention of course is much more defined and smaller. The issue that Chase faces with these convention goers is they have been to the circus and seen the strings more times than not. Many are actively engaged in politics far more than average general election voters. Chase herself was a delegate to the convention held in August that nominated Del. Nick Freitas over first time candidate Tina Ramirez. Many have asserted that these convention goers know Chase far too well and would not support her initially on a first ballot and where depending upon how many declare to run could see Chase out of the nomination race after the first balloting.

If Chase does declare today to run as an "independent" than Virginians can fully expect to see her running for Congress in 2022 after losing a third party bid for Governor in 2021. Chase does have other issues to sort out at home as well as many rumbles have begun in Chesterfield to unseat Chase as State Senator in 2023. Much will be determined by the redistricting planning that may go into effect before the next Virginia Senate race in 2023 with new lines being drawn but one thing is certain; Chase will be primaried as she primaried Senator Steve Martin in 2015.

**** Fact Check on the Amanda Chase Facebook post today*****

Chase stated the following:

"100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years "

Fact Check:

Chase received rating of 83% 2016-17 her first two sessions in the Virginia Senate not 5 years at 100%

Chase claims "Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party":

Ratings- Virginia Tea Party Federation 94% (2019) Fiscal Conservative Issues

84% (2019) Conservative Issues

100% (2012-19) Civil Libertarian Issues

Other examples of Legislators with Same ratings as Chase or better:

Del. Kirk Cox (R) 100% VCDL rating 2020

100% Family Foundation 2020

100% Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2019

100% Nat. Federation of Independent Business 2017-19

Sen. Jill Vogel (R) 100% National Rifle Association

100% Virginia Tea Party Federation (2017- H/I)

Del. Nick Freitas (R) 100% VCDL rating

Important to note Ratings: CHASE

American Conservative Union 89% (2018)

Virginia Chamber of Commerce 73% (2019)

VA-07 Election Anaysis: The More Things Change the More They Stay The Same

As the data and the metrics continue to come pouring in and the result in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District (VA-07) no longer appears in doubt, the Republican Party of Virginia should wast little time in diving into the data points that determined the election last week in favor of Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) for a second time in two years.

There should be some level of concern on the part of Republicans that should not be dismissed by the establishment interest or the political consultant class. Many Republican campaigns have used the same consultants over the course of the last decade that appear to have not read the electorate at large or the metrics on the ground especially well in suburban Virginia. There appears a widening disconnect between the GOP candidates and suburban voters, especially suburban women, minorities and "foreign born" voters.

The fact remains that the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has steadily lost the suburban vote over the last seven years. Consultants would like to lay much of this at the feet of President Trump however this is an easy out for them that often is not substantiated by the many of the metrics.

For example, in 2020 President Trump outperformed many of the Republican candidates for Congress. One rising star for the RPV is Aliscia Andrews (R) who ran in the VA-10 and managed to generated higher percentages than Trump in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties in her district. In her precincts in Prince William County, Andrews outperformed Trump by 13 points and in Fairfax County by 10 points followed by Loudoun County and Clarke County by 3 points.

Conversely, President Trump outperformed candidates like Bob Good (R) in VA-05 and Del. Nick Freitas in VA-07 in about half as many of the counties in the districts and not simply rural localities. In an election cycle where the media all but declared suburbia for the Democrats as a repudiation of Trump, not all of suburbia reflected that narrative.

Trump managed to raise his percentage in Henrico County from 36.60% in 2016 to 38.73% however Del. Nick Freitas came in under both Trump's 2020 performance as well as Rep. David Brat's 40.12% in 2018 for the seat in VA-07. Del. Freitas would lose Henrico 60.64% to 39.18 where Rep. Spanberger increased her voting percentage by 2 points from 2018. 

Spanberger also managed to raise her voting percentage in Chesterfield County just under a percent as the difference in the result resulted in the same 10 point margin in the Democrats favor. Spanberger outperformed Biden almost a point in Chesterfield and over a point in Henrico. Spanberger raised her vote count in Chesterfield County from 60,897 in 2018 to 80,161 in 2020 and in Henrico from 63,892 in 2018 to 80,421 in 2020. These two localities represent the lions share of votes cast in the VA-07.

Online surveys indicate that the one of the issues that put Delegate Nick Freitas on the defensive with suburban voters was the manner in which Spanberger used "preexisting conditions" and an "autism vote" to characterize Freitas. Spanberger raised over 4 million dollars and used these resources against Freitas in repeated ad campaigns and online media using the healthcare issues has a focal point.

Following the election in a caucus call, Rep. Spanberger stated that the Democrats "need to not ever use the term socialist or socialism ever again" and that the messaging regarding "defunding the police" nearly cost Spanberger the race in 2020. The comments illustrate the differences between Spanberger and the progressives in the Democrat Party and actually puts her at odds with many Virginia Democrats in Richmond. There is some suspicion that the Spanberger team leaked the audio from the caucus call given the team recognizes that 2022 may be in jeopardy for her if a Biden administration is directed by the progressives in Washington.

On the Republican side, many are already seeking Delegate Freitas to run again in 2022 given the tightness of the race but in evaluating the trends and metrics this may not actually be the best course of action for RPV given Freitas has now lost a U.S. Senate statewide primary and a Congressional race  within last two years.  Scott Taylor (R) sought to take back his seat lost in 2018 forgoing a U.S. Senate run and failed to win the VA-02 last week. 

In examining the House races that the GOP won in 2020, it is Republican women that seem to outperform expectations.  Two examples were winners Nicole Malliotakis (R) in NY-11 and Maria Salazar in FL-27.Given the makeup of the Virginia suburbs and the rising trends of women and minority owned businesses in suburban Richmond, the RPV needs to evaluate these metrics to ensure that any candidate has appeal to this metric.

The fact remains that any Republican nominated in the VA-07 in 2022 would likely win most of the rural districts. These voters must turnout in 2022 of course but the GOP must have a candidate that can appeal to at least 46% of the suburban electorate or the RPV to flip VA-07. How the RPV responds to a typical decline in turnout after a Presidential election will certainly be something to keep and eye on with its new Chairman in Rich Anderson.

The reason for this is that the Democrats increased its turnout but not its voting percentages compared to the Republicans. Only in Goochland and Powhatan did Spanberger raise her "rural" percentage  and it was by less than a percent. While this should concern the Democrats if the GOP can turnout voters in 2022 should Biden finally get certified as the winner, the Democrats will continue to focus on the suburban vote that has delivered Spanberger two elections in a row now. In back to back cycles, Spanberger has only won two counties out of ten in the district.

Concerning for the RPV is the following areas in "rural" Virginia that Del. Nick Freitas under performed Trump: (Trump/Freitas)

Amelia County  68.29%  (67.38)

Louisa County 60.66%  (60.07)

Nottoway County 56.89%  (55.10)

Powhatan County 71.24% (70.62)

Orange County 59.91%  (59.73%)

There is a question in terms of Democratic turnout if the election was a referendum on Trump in truth or support for Biden. Places like Louisa County which appears to be moving move with VA-05 counties in terms of trends saw an increase of about 2,500 Democratic voters over 2018  and Spanberger in 2020 outperformed Clinton by 4 points. Spanberger outperformed Clinton (34.83%) with 40.81% in 2020 adding 2,000 voters from 2016 in support for her campaign. Orange County experienced almost an identical result where Clinton earned 34.50% and Spanberger earned 40.08% in 2020. Spanberger took advantage of almost two thousand more Democratic voters over 2016 turnout for Clinton.

A positive for Delegate Freitas was he raised voting percentages in all but two counties; Henrico and Goochland.  It is important to also consider that Freitas (39.18%) under performed in terms of appeal to left leaning districts in terms of margin as State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) 2019 race performance where Dunnavant's 49.14% in Henrico helped her secure victory in a very tight election against Delegate Debra Rodman (D) 50.76% to 49.06%. Freitas did perform very well in established Republican precincts in Henrico but these could not propel him to a county victory where Spanberger won 60.64%.

The question than becomes will the RPV recognize the appeal and the criticisms such leaders as State Amanda Chase seeking the GOP nomination for Governor have launched against Dunnavant's positions though it appears they appeal to more Henrico voters than President Trump, Del.Freitas and Rep. Brat. Supporters of the GOP should also recognize the appeal that rising start Tina Ramirez may have in suburban Richmond in 2022 than Delegate Freitas or Rep. Brat have delivered. One could also argue that Senator Dunnavant (R) has more appeal to suburban voters as well historically and given the rise of Republican women and success at the polls this cannot be understated.

Suburban Turnout VA-07: 2016/2020----will leave you scratching your head

Chesterfield County:  85,045 (Trump) 65,019 (Trump) -

                                   81,074 (Clinton) 79,783 (Biden) -

Henrico County :       59,857 (Trump)  52,184 (Trump) -

                                   93,935 (Clinton) 80,032 (Biden) -

Trump lost voter support in the following counties from 2016 to 2020:

Chesterfield County 48.22% to 44.07%

Goochland County 59.73% to 58.80%

Spotsylvania County 55.25% to 54.84%

Orange County : 60.93% to 59.91%

Culpeper County: 60.08 to 59.05%

Freitas lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 (Brat) to 2020:

Henrico County 40.12% to 39.18%

Goochland County 59.58%- 58.94%

Spanberger (D) raised voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Chesterfield County: 54.09% to 55.03%

Henrico County : 58.67% to 60.64%

Powhatan County: 28.89% to 29.30%

Goochland County: 39.52% to 40.81%

Orange County: 40.07% to 40.08%

Spanberger (D) lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Amelia County: 32.87% to 32.49%

Louisa County: 40.47% to 39.73%

Spotsylvania County: 44.17% to 43.88%

Culpeper County: 40.68% to 39.98%

Nottoway County- 45.05% to 44.72%

All statistical information and voting metrics in this article come from two primary sources that Virginians can review.

1. https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/President_and_Vice_President_(CD_-_07).html

2. vpap.org/visuals/visual/presidential/

Guest Commentator

Jonathan Scott

Aliscia Andrews: Rising Star in Virginia GOP

 

Jonathan Scott

Guest Contributor

There are very few conservative candidates who have impressed me more the last few election cycles in Virginia than Tina Ramirez (VA7) and Aliscia Andrews the Republican nominee in the Virginia Tenth Congressional District. Both ladies are first time Republican candidates that determined to seek the nomination to challenge Democratic Congresswoman and are rising stars in the Virginia GOP.

Tina Ramirez's candidacy in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District fell short as the convention nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) who has run a few local races as well as a statewide primary race against Corey Stewart in 2018 for U.S. Senate in which he lost. The story with Rameriz very similar with Andrews in that very few gave either a chance to win the nomination especially given both were nominating conventions. Conventions in Virginia tend to produce the most entrenched interest of nominees and often through rather suspicious means. Ramirez  finished behind Freitas in balloting but performed extraordinary for a first time Congressional candidate with limited resources. Andrews, a Marine veteran and a a contractor with Department of Homeland Security path to the nomination was one of precision campaigning.

Aliscia Andrews had only 27% after the first round of balloting at the VA10 Convention. Most never gave Andrews much of a chance going into the convention however far too many underestimated to level of retail campaigning and relationship building she dedicated herself to throughout the campaign. After speaking with many participants in the convention many stated that while Andrews was not their first choice they respected the fact that she was always gracious and engaging and ran a very respectful campaign when it came to the other challengers. This in the end was the difference in getting her nominated.

The expected winner was Rob Jones. Jones in fact won the first two rounds of balloting securing 31% in the first round than 34% in the second. Andrews increased her votes to 33% in the second round after Jeffery Dove was removed from contention. By the third round it was down to Jones and Andrews after Matt Troung was removed after the second round where he earned 32% just one percent less than Andrews. In the third and final round Andrews defeated Jones 57-42%.

Andrews has been running a dedicated "WEXIT" campaign focused on defeating Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) in November. Andrews rarely concentrated any time focused on fellow potential nominees and stayed laser focused on speaking to voters (delegates) on how to unseat Wexton. "Wexit" is a play on the "Vexit" movement that popped up where some counties in Virginia have been courted by West Virginia to join it given they resemble West Virginia more than Virginia culturally and politically. Many Virginians in rural and mountain areas no longer see Richmond as relating to them and their lifestyles let alone respecting it. 

The VA10 represents all of Clarke, Frederick and Loudoun Counties in western Northern Virginia and incldues Winchester, Manassas, Manassas Park and parts of Fairfax and Prince William Counties.

Jennifer Wexton (D-V10) similar to Abigail Spanbeger (D-VA7) was elected during the so-called "blue wave" of 2018. Wexton defeated Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock(R) while Spanberger defeated Rep. David Brat (R). Both were successful in winning the suburban vote especially that of women. Wexton won Fairfax by 18 points over Comstock very similarly as Spanberger won Henrico County in suburban Richmond by the same margin. Whereas Spanberger only won two localities in the VA7 and won, Wexton five localities outright and one within 1% margin.

Andrews likely will win Clarke and Frederick County however will need to make major inroads in my childhood home in Loudoun County. Fairfax is strong Wexton country and the  urban areas of Manassas and Manassas Park are very Democratic with heavy immigrant demographics that have been supporting Virginia Demcorats the last few cycles in mass. Loudoun was once a strong "red" county but has seen  shift with the massive growth of the federal government and the growth that it has experienced resulting in a shift towards the left just like Fairfax experienced decades before.

Andrews however carries none of the "establishment" baggage that Wexton used effectively against Comstock so it will be interesting to see how the Wexton campaign plays things and whether it will simply run against Trump given its a Presidential cycle. Trump lost the VA10 by seven points in 2016 and performed roughly the same as Comstock in Loudoun County.

Having lived in both the counties of Loudoun and Chesterfield the two are very similar and will determine the outcomes of both Congressional races this November. Chesterfield is following the same journey politically as Loudoun as it to is now moving to the left at the polls in statewide elections though still supporting GOP candidates locally.

Andrews like Rameriz will not be defined by the outcomes of this race as both have already far exceeded any expectation most had with regard to their campaigns. 

Richmond Suburbia to Determine Outcome in 2020 Virginia 7th Congressional Race

There can be no argument that President Trump has tremendous support in the Virginia 7th Congressional District. Trump won the district by eight basis points and as it stands today if turnout in opposition to impeachment and Virginia gun control legislation is any indication that support is growing.

Rep. Abigail Spanbeger (D) the current holder of the VA07 seat is on record of being "all in" on gun control legislation and in support of impeachment of President Trump. Recent town halls with constituents have demonstrated there is increasing opposition to Spanberger's positions on both but make no mistake Spanberger is a very calculating politician and is playing to her suburban base.

Join in discussion here at Chasing Victory in Virginia: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

In 2018 the primary method  for U.S Senate selected Corey Stewart over Del. Nick Freitas and E.W. Jackson. The primary method was selected by the Virginia Republican Party State Central Committee. Stewart won the primary with 44.87% whereas Freitas earned 43.14%. Important to Freitas is the fact the majority of support for his Senate bid came from Central Virginia precincts that are included in the Virginia 7th Congressional District.

Nick Freitas won re-election in the Virginia 30th House District after having missed the filing deadline and having to run as a write-in candidate. While Freitas has latched on the 2A Gun Sanctuary movement as a means of elevating his profile given his recent declaration to run for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Spanberger for the VA-07 seat.

Here is some of the history in the VA-07:

David Brat (R) defeated Eric Cantor(R) in 2014 primary in the VA07 even though Cantor spent over 6 million dollars. Brat won the primary by just over ten points winning 55.55% to 44.45%. Brat went on to defeat the Democrat nominee Jack Trammell but earnjing 60% of the vote in the VA07. Brat was not primaried in 2016 and won handily in 2016 defeating Eileen Bedell with 57% of the vote.

In 2018, Abigail Spanberger won the Democrat nomination to face David Brat (R). Spanberger earned over 70% of the primary vote and would go on to defeat incumbent David Brat (R) in November 2018 50.34% to 48.40%.

It is important to note the while Democrats like to throw around the word "legitimate" the fact remains that Spanberger does not defeat David Brat (R) without the 2016 redistricting of the VA07. Redistricting removed Hanover precincts from the VA07 that had supported Republicans in prior elections by almost 70%.

For example in 2014, David Brat (R) earned over 26,000 votes in Hanover County and won the County with 69.52% of the vote. In 2016 the Hanover voters were removed from the VA07. Brat still defeated his challenger in 2016  but with about four points less of a margin. In 2018, Spanberger would defeat Brat by two basis points.

In 2016 Henrico County which had long been a Republican bell weather began to shift politically as the suburban county continued to grow with younger families and first time home buyers. In 2016 the race for the seat was a virtual dead heat between Brat and Bedell. Brat won Henrico with 50.77%.

Things would drastically change for Brat in 2018 in Henrico. Losing the support of the Hanover precincts would finally catch up with the Republicans as in 2018 Spanberger would carry Henrico by eighteen points with 58.57% of the vote with about five thousand less voters turning out than in 2016 which was Presidential year but almost forty thousand more voters than the election of 2014 that saw Brat win Henrico County by ten thousand votes.

So in 2014 Brat won Henrico County by ten thousand votes and in 2016 won  by about one thousand votes. In 2018, Rep. Abigail Spanberger literally decimated Republican in her home county of Henrico by twenty thousand votes.

20,000.

Spanberger base of support is predominately Henrico and Chesterfield. Henrico has not formally endorsed a real gun sanctuary resolution whereas Chesterfield County recently adopted one. While supporting Spanberger in 2018, Chesterfield recently elected a Republican Board of Supervisors and Republican members to both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates. Henrico County remains dominated by Democrat officials in the Assembly with the exception of State Senator Dunnavant (R).

The road to victory in the Virginia 7th Congressional District will be determined in Henrico County in 2020. David Brat (R) defeated Rep. Abigail Spanberger in every county in 2018 except Henrico County (-18pts) and Chesterfield(-10pts). Clearly Spanberger's advantage in the VA-07 is the suburban vote outside Richmond.

One important development though for Republicans is State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) representing Henrico County held her seat last November when the Virginia Democrats secured majority of that body. Dunnavant won with 50.76%. Dunnavant has transitioned herself to being a moderate and has been taking serious criticisms of late by conservative Republicans regarding her voting thus far in the 2020 General Assembly. Furthermore, Dunnavant ran away from President Trump during her campaigning in 2019.

The question remains which of the Republican potential nominees could secure enough support in the suburbia to offset the Spanberger base. Republican turnout is poised to be historic in the rural communities in large part due to recent actions taken by the Democrat controlled Virginia Assembly. Every county other than Henrico has taken up a gun sanctuary resolution in response to the Democrat extremism in Richmond. Increasing the turnout in the rural areas of the VA-07 will only better serve the prospects of defeating Spanberger given the narrow victory she had in 2018.

The biggest influence regarding turnout however will be President Trump. Having Trump on the ballot should have a direct impact on the ability for Republicans to turnout voters to support the nominee. Recently, all potential nominees for the Republican Party challenge have pledged to support whoever secure the nomination at the Virginia 7th Congressional District Convention.

Many Virginians would prefer to see Delegate Nick Freitas remain in the Assembly and run for Governor of Virginia in 2021. Currently the only two Republican officials that appear to be raising their profiles are Frietas and State Senator Amanda Chase(R). Supporters of Chase have already created a facebook group for supporting her potential candidacy for Governor. Chase currently has been the most vocal opponent of Governor Northam and the Democrats in Richmond and has in fact called for the recall of the Governor.

While Freitas has some name recognition resulting from his U.S. Senate bid, Tina Ramirez another potential nominee had out fund raised all others in the race at start of 2020. Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs offer voters very different backgrounds and the depth of the pool of candidates this cycle is very promising. The field is full of veterans and those working in government and outside advancing freedom and liberty.

https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1351000/andrew-f-knaggs/

Andrew Knaggs is graduate of the United States Military Academy and the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Combating Terrorism. Knaggs served as a Army Special Forces and served in Iraq. Both Delegates Freitas and John McGuire are veterans as well. Freitas served in the U.S. Army and McGuire was a Navy Seal.

The Convention in March (now July) will determine the nominee to face Spanberger and Delegates should consider that victory will certainly go through Richmond suburbia and any candidate selected will have to resonate much better than David Brat (R) in 2018. The campaign must also be run in a very coordinated manner in order to bite into the eighteen point deficiency that occurred in 2018 in Henrico County.

J.Scott