Saturday, February 29, 2020

2A Call to Arms: Join Local Committees and Virginia Militias


The groundswell of 2A grassroots has resulted in over 100 Virginia localities to adopt resolutions to protect citizens from the radical, extreme agenda being proposed  by Virginia Democrats this  General Assembly session in Richmond.

"Lobby Day" this year at the State Capital drew well over sixty thousand Second Amendment supporters from dozens of states from across the country. These supporters put a national spotlight on the gun control measures  being proposed by Virginia Democrats having secured the majority control in Richmond last November.

Dozens of 2A groups have formed all over the Commonwealth of Virginia and many of them have group pages on facebook. This movement has connected 2A supporters all across the Commonwealth resulting now in many new county militias being formed. Jennifer Bailey of Louisa County is one of the biggest organizers and proponents of the Virginia Militia Alliance. Jonathan Scott has organized the #2AStrong Movement in Virginia and Corey Hodges has organized the Chesterfield County 2A Preservation Society in one of Virginia's largest suburban counties in the state. These groups are all growing members and the militia groups are beginning to hold their first drilling days.

The Virginia Democrats have been organizing behind close doors hoping to weather the storm. The have had some bill deferred but have had many successes in Richmond. "Red Flag" and "One Gun a month" bills have passed through the Assembly. Some Republicans have even defected to join the Democrats in these measures.

While the grassroots is generating alot of support and assisting in identifying the many proposals that are alarming to Virginia voters there is much more that MUST be done. The political process is about power. While on "Lobby Day" power in numbers was demonstrated, it has largely been forgotten already by Richmond. Democrats and Republicans have both gone about their business as usual in Richmond.

So what is the solution?

It not just Lobby Day sadly.

The solution lies in your locality.

Many 2A supporters showed up to 2A rallies and meeting to influence local Board of Supervisors in passing "gun sanctuary" resolutions that has resulted in over one hundred such resolutions being adopted. While it was a massive success, the reality is the real power that 2A supporters must concentrate their sights on are the local political committees that reside within the localities they live. These are the true political power apparatuses that influence not only the locality but also the district in terms of future candidates.

If 2A supporters are serious about having political power than it is this local committees that must be joined in mass with the hopes of winning control so that the political positions supporting freedom and liberty are preserved. The power of these committees cannot be understated.


This committees all across the Commonwealth are full of false Republicans. While they may claim to be Republican they are certainly far from being Conservative let alone Constitutional Conservatives. many of these committees are full of "Never Trumpers" that did not work on behalf of the Trump campaign in their localities that resulted in Trump losing to Hillary Clinton in Virginia by five points.

This is why you have not seen President Trump in Virginia much sicne 2016.

But beware the move to the 2A theme in 2020. Elections on the horizon 2A Supporters need to not blindly buy the messaging. There are plenty of gun owners in the Assembly in Richmond that frankly are not pushing for less restriction but more.

Beware the opportunists. Some experience that in Chesterfield Rally late last year. Politicians are savy. Even more savy are the ones who claim to not be "politcians" but are the worst kind of politcial animals.

As it stands the 2A groups have determined that as of today the one and only true 2A fighter in Virginia on any ballot is Delegate Nick Freitas but there are a few others that deserve a nod as well but many are not aware of them.

Thomas Anthony Specialle found here https://www.facebook.com/thomas.speciale  running for U.S. Senate.

Aliscia Andrews found here : https://www.facebook.com/andrewsforcongress/  (Marines)

Andrew Knaggs found here:  https://www.facebook.com/AndrewKnaggsVA/   (Army)

Madison Downs found here :https://www.facebook.com/MadisonDownsforCongress/   (Marines)

So what can 2A supporters do today?

They can join their local Republican Committees and get involved. By doing so, the voice of the 2A movement will continue to be heard  and doubters will not be able to silence the movement like they did to the Tea Party Movement.

The 2A Movement has gained a ton of momentum but the special interest and establishment are betting that the movement will die out in 2020.

Supporters of the Second Amendment cannot let that happen.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/ (Chasing Victory in Virginia)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/virginiamilitiaalliance/   Virginia Militia Alliance)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/429364747755341/   (Chesterfield County 2A Preservation Society)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/578238489390036/   (#2AStrong in Virginia)





Friday, February 28, 2020

Tommy Norment(R) Fails Conservatives; Amanda Chase Rallies Them!


This Virginia General Assembly this session demonstrates that when it comes to Virginia politics nothing ever is set in stone. In the face of over fifty thousand Virginians showing up at the Virginia State Capital in January to voice their opposition to extreme gun control legislation being proposed by Governor Ralph Northam (D) and the Virginia Democrats some Republicans either have not gotten the message or are simply have chosen to ignore it.

This week the Virginia Democrats advanced House Bill 421 delivered to the Virginia Senate. The controversial bill was simply yet another extreme Progressive gun control measure proposed  by Democrats who continue to propose legislation that in other states have either been rejected or have been challenged in the courts and found to be a violation of the Constitution.

Not a single Republican sponsored House Bill 421 which was fully endorsed by the usual anti-Constitutionlist Delegate Mark Levine VA-45 (Arlington) and Speaker of the House Delegate Eileen Filler-Corn (Fairfax). The bill passed the House of Delegates 50-48 with 2 non voting.

NO REPUBLICANS in the House supported the bill and (3) Democrats voted against it and (2) Democrats did not cast a vote (NV).
https://legiscan.com/VA/rollcall/HB421/id/911508

The bill summary:
"Control of firearms by localities. Grants localities authority to adopt or enforce an ordinance, resolution, or motion governing the possession, carrying, storage, or transporting of firearms, ammunition, or components or combination thereof in the locality. Various provisions limiting such authority are repealed. Provisions limiting the authority of localities and state governmental entities to bring lawsuits against certain firearms manufacturers and others are also repealed"



In the Virginia Senate, the Republican Senate Minority Leader Tommy Norment broke with every single Republican in the General Assembly to support the measure and join with the Progressive Democrats. Norment represents the Virginia 3rd Senate District:

Third District VA3 District Profile: Gloucester County (All), New Kent County (All), King and Queen County (All), King William County (All), Poquoson City (All), Isle of Wight County (Part), James City County (Part), Surry County (Part), York County (Part), Hampton City (Part), Suffolk City (Part)

Senator Norment : district03@senate.virginia.gov
                                      Phone: (804) 698-7503

This is not the first time that Norment has determined to fail Virginia Conservatives. In 2019, Senator Norment failed to support fellow Republican Amanda Freeman Chase in her re-election bid in the Virginia 11th District in the suburbs of Richmond. Norment chose to contribute to over a million in campaign donations to other Republicans but neither Norment nor the Senate Caucus or Leadership Committee contributed to Chase.

Norment has been in the Virginia Senate since 1992 and only twice in recent cycles has been primaried by a fellow Republican. Norment was challenged by Paul Jost in 2003 and then by Mark Frechette in 2011 in the Republican Primaries those years. Now Virginia Conservatives are looking to find a candidate to challenge Norment once again in 2023. Norment should heed the warning that the mobilization that is underway throughout the Commonwealth. Nothing like this has been seen in Virginia since the Tea Party movement that took out Congressman Eric Cantor (R) in the Virginia 7th by over ten points in 2014.

While Senator Norment is being high criticized for not only his vote but his leadership that resulted in the Republican Party losing the majority in the Virginia Senate last November, State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) is growing a groundswell of support throughout Virginia.

Conservatives are recognizing that Senator Chase's criticisms of Republican leadership are now born out by the actions being undertaken. Very few Republican Senators have embraced the 2A movement sweeping Virginia. Amanda Freeman Chase had a pro active role in "Lobby Day" and has become a central figure in the fight against the assault on the Constitution by Democrats. Virtually no other Republican officials are speaking to the hundreds of thousands of Virginia mobilizing rallies, attending local meetings and building militias. The Virginia Militia Alliance has grown exponentially since last Fall and have been virtually ignored by the Republican Party. A Republican Caucus that appears to have run completely away from not only President Trump but the Constitution.

Norment is not alone in defection to the Democrats on legislation this session. State Senator Siobhon Dunnavant (R-VA12) is also under scrutiny for her voting record that many Virginia Conservatives have called into question. These leaders while remaining champions of the establishment class and Bearing Drift have lost the confidence of the grassroots Conservative movement afoot.

Norment in 2019 came under criticism for being one of eight editors for the Virginia Military Institute's "BOMB" publication containing objectionable content similar to the pictures releases depicting Governor Ralph Northam (D) wearing "blackface" from his medical school yearbook. in 1981. While Norment's role in his colleges publication in 1968 was certainly a different time, many contend that Governor Northam was not held accountable by the Republican leadership in 2019 because both Norment and Northam attended the Virginia Military Institute which has a long tradition in Virginia politics.

Given the massive extremism witnessed by Virginia Conservatives coming from Richmond today, many asserting that Northam may not have even been able to push this agenda had Republican leadership not failed to hold the Governor accountable. Conservatives are reminded what the Democrats did to former Governor Bob McDonnell (R) over gifts in which they attacked the Governor's integrity non stop.

Senator Amanda Freeman Chase who is not caucusing with the Republicans in the Virginia Senate and has been completely removed from the Senate Caucus page is resonating with Virginia Conservatives. The warnings that Chase asserted during the campaign of 2019 have become reality. While other Republicans dismissed her warnings of the onslaught of Progressive proposals that would result when the Democrats took majority it is quickly becoming apparent that the minority has little to no messaging or oppositional strategy. Meanwhile, Amanda Freeman Chase is resonating all over the Commonwealth with Virginia Conservatives.



Thursday, February 20, 2020

Chas(e)ing the Nomination in Virginia: State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R)


Seeking to capitalize on the growing level of "Virginia Populism" all across the Commonwealth of Virginia, State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) has announced her intention to run for the Republican nomination for Governor of Virginia four months ago on the steps of the State Capital.

Discussions here Chase for Governor: https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

Senator Chase announced her intentions on Monday standing on the historic steps of the Virginia State Capital on the very afternoon that the Virginia Senate Judiciary Committee voted down one of the most radical, extremist gun control measures ever introduce in Virginia political history. House Bill 961 that was sponsored in the Virginia House of Delegates by Progressive Delegate Mark Levine representing the 45th House District located in Arlington and Alexandria. HB 961 in effect would ban all "assault" style weapons or as Delegate characterizes as "weapons of war" as well as any and all sale of magazines that could hold twelve rounds or more of ammunition. Possession of these items would constitute a felony.

House Bill 961 was simply a similar version of Senate Bill 16 sponsored by Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw of Fairfax County that the Senator had pulled from consideration thus avoiding any debate on the matter in the Senate. Instead, Virginia Democrats in Richmond used the Levine Bill as a vehicle in the House first and then reviewed in committee by the Senate. The bill failed in committee 10-5 after four Democrats moved right and joined Republicans in opposition.



During the Campaign of 2019, Amanda Freeman Chase was one of the very few Republicans who did not run away from President Trump. Chase defeated a heavily funded challenger afer which Chase decided to no longer caucus with the Republican Party.

This means in effect Chase really is not recognized nor treated as a GOP legislator and does not meet with the others in the caucus nor is part of the communication. Chase was stripped of all her previous committee assignments save one once the Democrats took control. Chase in essence is a island in the Virginia Senate like Sander's in the U.S. Senate who in truth is an independent not a Democrat. Chase has done little to reunite with the GOP in 2020 and recent statements from the GOP appear to illustrate hat they remain unsupportive of her .

Chase's decision was made when the Republican leadership that lost control of the majority of both chambers in the Virginia General Assembly for the first time in almost two decades remained intact post election. The Republicans determined in effect to continue with "business as usual". The Leadership had failed to understand just how poor the messaging was in 2019 and determined to run the campaigns in the same manner they always had while the Democrats had evolved and implemented new innovative campaign mechanisms and infrastructure.

One other major factor little reported by the media is the failure of the Republican leadership to even fund the re-election bid of Senator Amanda Freeman Chase. While supporting other Republican Senate candidates the leadership chose not to assist Chase in her efforts. There were even rumors in early 2019 that the leadership was attempting to find someone to primary Senator Chase in a Republican primary. Chase had defeated long time friend of the leadership in Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary before the 2015 election cycle. The Chase victory in that primary came has as one of the most historic local races and only surpassed in Virginia politics by Congressman David Brat's upset of them Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R) in a Congressional Republican primary.

If you examine the campaign contributions in 2019 amidst one of the most heated political campaign seasons in thew history of Virginia, it is clear that the Republican leadership was unwilling to provide the level of support to Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that leadership provided others. Some have attempted to argue that this was a direct result of polling throughout the campaign that indicated that Chase had at least a four point lead in her race as late as August 2019, however it was after this polling that the Republican Party of Virginia in fact made several contributions in the amount beginning in September through October totally seventy seven thousand. That being said, the leadership and Senate political action committees failed to support Chase at all while supporting multiple other Republican candidates,

State Senators right next door to Chase's district in both the 10th and 12th  were provided support via the  Republican Party of Virginia and received enormous support from Republican State Leadership Committee and the Virginia Senate Republican Caucus. In fact Senate Majority Leader Thomas "Tommy" Norment's Senate Leadership/Candidate Committee failed to support Chase yet made heavy contributions in the districts next door to Chase's.

These are the facts relating to the level that the State GOP failed to support Senator Amanda Freeman Chase:

The Norment for Senate committee supported Senator Dunnavant VA12 with 231,00 and Senator Sturtevant VA10 with 709,750. Zero for Chase.

The Republican State Leadership Committee contributed 345,000 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 631,957. Zero for Chase.

The Virginia Senate Republican Caucus contributed 460,500 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 591,059. Zero for Chase.

**Dunnavant would win her re-election bid by about 1% over Delegate Debra Rodman while Sturtevant lost his seat in the Senate by 9 points**

There is little indication that the Va GOP will support Chase in 2021 thus far.

Many Virginians  following Chase's lead have grown very suspicious of Senator Dunnavant who in 2020 General Assembly session appeared to betray the contingent of Second Amendment supporters that campaigned on her behalf and supported her in Hanover County which is were the precincts that thrust her to re-election. Many supporters now on social media have flooded groups with buyers remorse given Dunnavant has cast votes that her challenger in 2019 very well would have cast.

The questions regarding the failure to support Senator Chase are rampant on social media. Chase supporters have become enraged at the Republican Party and the failure of leadership to contribute last November merely double downed on constituent suspicions of the State GOP that resulted after Senator Chase resigned from the Chesterfield County Republican Committee over committee rules relating to membership being required to support/endorse any GOP nominee within the county. Chase failed to endorse a GOP nominee in Karl Leonard for Sheriff instead opting for another option thus alienating herself from her own local committee.

Nevertheless and without any true party support, Senator Amanda Freeman Chase won re-election in 2019 by about nine points over Progressive Amanda Pohl. The race for the seat was one of the most contentious on social media in 2019. One thing that supporters love about Chase is her determination to never back down in a fight. This character trait has never bode well for the "good ole boy" establishment which  behind the scenes has always wish to in effect silence Chase who never seemed capable in their eyes of staying in line with the leadership.

The division between leadership and Chase intensified following the 2019 election. Given nothing according to Chase was addressed by the leadership with regard to the lost majority, Chase walked away. The Republicans would keep the status quo even after the leadership failed to keep control of the Assembly and failed to advance true conservative agendas in the 2019 Assembly session. In fact, the leadership remained quiet regarding Governor Northam's racist "blackface" circumstance as well as Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax had sexual assault allegations levied against him by two women from his own party. Republicans sat on their hands. Failed to push for investigation by committees in the Assembly they controlled. Meanwhile, Republicans all over Virginia sat watching the House of Representatives in Congress levy investigation after investigation against President Trump.

While  Chase never ran away from Trump in 2019 many others did. Nor did she shy away from calling out Governor Northam and Lt. Governor Fairfax and the Democratic hypocrisy relating to those politicians. Chase won handlily in a pro-Trump 2016 district in 2019.

The announcement to run for Governor in 2021 certainly raises Senator Amanda Freeman Chase's profile across Virginia but it also highlights the beginning of a splintering of the Republican Party of Virginia at large. Chase has an ability to speak to those that are frustrated with the State GOP and there is certainly a new coalition forming. The movement mirrors that of the Tea Party Movement back in 2010-12 in Virginia and the Republican leadership should take notice.


It has been Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that has been leading much of the opposition. Chase recently was scolded by Senator Janet Howell (D) of Fairfax County for using her social media to communicate Assembly business to Virginians. The truth is the transparency is not something that either leadership in the Assembly prefer but Chase has determined to deliver it. Chase has in effect made political enemies on both sides of the aisle. Chase asserted that anyone in the Assembly supporting such draconian measures like red flag laws could only be characterized as "traitors to Virginia". Howell's response has been to see to it that Amanda Freeman Chase's sponsored bills have been shelved.

The response by Senator Howell is indicative of the manner in which the new majority is conducting business in the Virginia General Assembly. Supporters of Chase were quick to point out that Howell ultimately was disenfranchising representation of Virginians that live in the Virginia 11th by not permitting the bills sponsored by Chase in committee for consideration.  These tactics may be acceptable in Fairfax County by its overwhelming Democrat majority but all across Virginia this is not how the "Peoples House" is supposed to work and how Virginia business is to be conducted. Howell actually has fueled even grater opposition to her Party and contributed to the awakening that is underway going into the elections of 2020 this Fall.
 
VA07 GOP Primary Contenders 

There is little doubt that Chase will be out this Summer.There is some uncertainty whether the State GOP leadership will get behind Trump this summer. Trump lost Virginia to Hillary Clinton in 2016 but won many of the Congressional Districts like the Virginia 7th held by Democrat Abigail Spanberger since 2018.  Spanberger appears vulnerable for the Democrats in 2020 as Spanberger supported impeachment, supports gun control measures pushed in Richmond and failed to support a pay raise for the military through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in Congress. Spanberger will need support of Chesterfield County in the 2020 Election. As it stands today, Tina Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs appear to be the front runners for the GOP nomination to face Abigail Spanberger however Nick Freitas is gaining ground and funding.

The 2021 Governor's race is almost twenty one months away so Senator Chase has amble time to form her own coalition while building bridges of support with others in the upcoming 2020 Election all across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Chase would be wise to campaign across Virginia in 2020 and connect with other areas of the Commonwealth. Supporters have already taking to social media to drive her brand and raise her identification across the state. A facebook group was created in late January called "Chase for Governor 2021" and already has over eleven thousand members and growing.

Follow here on social media tot stay informed.

https://www.facebook.com/TurnVARedAgain/   The Conservative State

https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/999287823791649/


Monday, February 17, 2020

Virginia Democrats Blink: The "Delusionals" Win One


What may seem rather shocking to many Virginia Democrats and Blue Virginia, the Virginia Senate Judiciary Committee voted on February 17, 2020 to table Delegate Mark Levine's (D) from Arlington's 45th House District House Bill 961.

The controversial bill was a direct assault on the U.S. Constitution and in light of the repeated rallies and protests all over the Commonwealth and most recently against Presidential Primary Candidate Michael Bloomberg in Richmond. Virginia Democrats were forced not only to weigh those concerns but also of Supreme Court decisions.

The bill would have banned "assault style" weapons defined by Democrats such as the AR-15 as well as magazines that hold more than twelve rounds of ammunition.

"This bill will save lives" asserted Delegate Mark Levine the bill chief patron but never in all the deliberation in the House ever demonstrated how it would exactly save lives. The motive of Levine and his Progressive wing of the Virginia Democratic Party has simply been to disarm Virginians at any means necessary.

Four Democrats joined the Republican minority on the Judiciary Committee to table the measure until the next session in 2021 and determined to send the bill to the Crime Commission for review. The Republicans did the same thing when asked to hold a special session to address gun violence last summer following the Virginia Beach shooting incident in May of 2019. With all the media criticisms and the social media firestorm fueled by Blue Virginia and the Progressive advocacy groups like Mons Demand Action and Everytown for Gun Safety last summer after the Republicans deferred any action last summer the Virginia Democrats have done the exact same thing.

While the Democrats may have stemmed off the Republican protests, Democrats may have actually infuriated the Progressive base. Delegate Mark Levine was steaming on Monday morning following the vote given he believed the Democrats had the votes to send the measure to the Senate floor for a vote. Virginia Democrats control the Virginia Senate 21-19 and with majority very well may have been able to secure passage.

Did the moderates in the Democratic Party betray the Virginia Progressives? Betray Governor Northam?

Certainly appears so.

While Senator Dick Saslaw (D) from Fairfax voted to send the bill to the Senate, it seems ironic that the very man who triggered much of the protest by calling Virginia 2A supporters "delusional" faced hundreds of the delusional Virginians in the gallery this morning and with the help of Saslaw's fellow Democrats defeated him.

The Virginia Democrats blinked this morning. The question is what will the 124 Virginia 2A Resolution counties/cities do now that they have seen that staying engaged in the process in Richmond can in fact create successful opposition.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/578238489390036/

Sunday, February 9, 2020

From Opposition to Resistance: The Virginia Awakening


The current political environment in the Commonwealth of Virginia today can only be described as being a state of  "opposition".

Competing views, philosophies and more importantly interpretations of the United States Constitution in the public square and social media relating to the current Virginia political dynamic has not been at this fever pitch since Revolutionary era.

It may seem hyperbolic but the truth is the level of contempt for the Virginia Progressives dominating the Democratic Party of Virginia that exist today rivals that of the Tories and the fact that the majority of these Progressives come from the same region once dominated by those favoring allegiance to England is not lost on those paying attention.

The "opposition" in Virginia held a massive State House rally last month where close to 80,000 citizens rallied before the Virginia General Assembly in Richmond only to be all but ignored by the new majority in Virginia. This majority much like its brethren in Congress north of the Potomac is being led by an angry Progressive minority. The Republicans had controlled the majority in the General Assembly in Richmond for almost three decades and lost it last November in a decisive defeat.

The election in 2019 proved just how outmatched the Republican Party of Virginia has become. After years holding the majority the party morphed left in truth and having the opportunity and the votes to pass sweeping legislation to limit government, reduce spending, call for formal audits of the bloated State Government and especially hold the Governor to the fire for ever increasing budgets the Republicans hardly mustered much of a fight or any "opposition" to the Governors Terry McAuliffe (D) or Ralph Northam (D).

During the 2019 General Assembly session the Republicans controlling both the House of Delegates  and the Virginia Senate failed to demand of itself oversight over the Executive. Governor Northam was found to have worn "blackface" and his Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax was accused  by two respected women from his own party of sexual assault and the Republicans did nothing. No hearings and no investigations. Republican leadership sat on its hands.

Meanwhile, Virginia Republicans witnessed a never ending assault on President Trump by Democrats in Washington that  by 2019 had gone on almost two full years. Virginia Republicans could not even muster a hearing. Republican leadership is said have feared backlash by voters in the 2019 elections had they pressed the issues formally in Richmond. Not only did many Republican campaigns fail to even mention the Governor in their ads and direct mail pieces but many even ran away from the successes of Trump and how his tax cuts benefited Virginians.

The establishment types today will cry out that it should be the Democrats that Virginians focus on and not blame the Republican leadership or Party for the result of 2019, however most Virginians understand given Virginia history that when you are so soundly defeated by the opposition that leadership must change.

Virginians with their long history of fights and battlefields a plenty understand the purpose of duty and the solemn oath of honor. How many times did Lincoln change his commanding General in the face of Virginians during Virginia campaigns during the Civil War? How many times did Jefferson Davis replace Robert E. Lee? Republican leadership saw little to no consequence whatsoever for its failures in 2019 but the fact is these failures were foretold years prior.

The Republican Party today now must redefine itself in the face of defeat. The same leaders that oversaw the majority are now operating in an environment they are unaccustomed. Now the minority party in Richmond, Republicans are forced to be the opposition. However, no such leader has step forward in Richmond as of yet to command the messaging for the Republicans. A vacuum is developing with each passing day the Assembly remains in session without an unifying leader stepping forward.

Meanwhile, outside Richmond throughout Virginia there is a two front battle being waged.

On one front, Virginians are mobilizing and utilizing the very vehicle that the Republican Party of Virginia has been so inept at utilizing; social media. Literally dozens of "Gun Sanctuary"  and pro Second Amendment groups have formed that did not exist before the November elections. The total number of citizens engaged in this groups is growing and has eclipsed over one hundred thousand from all parts of the Commonwealth.

This front is an opposition movement to Governor Northam's and Michael Bloomberg's gun control doctrine. Bloomberg now seeking the Democratic nomination for President is using states like Virginia has a springboard highlighting the success of his gun control advocacy groups he has personally funded with millions.

Given that Super Tuesday is mere weeks away in Virginia, the Bloomberg campaign is the most organized and funded of any of the potential nominees. Most of the Democrats in the running have not even been to Virginia yet while Bloomberg's Moms Demand Action and Everytown for Gun Safety are out in force. Bloomberg is bent on securing the nomination at a brokered convention this summer and will accumulate Super Delegates the old fashion way; he will buy them. Super Delegates are traditionally elected officials who also have campaigns of their own to run that require funding. Virginians understand all to well the power of Bloomberg funding.

The second front is being launched against the Republican Party itself. Many believe that the leadership of the party must go. They have ignored the will of the rank and file for far too long and yet at the same time taken them for granted. Whether justly or unjustly, the leadership is being held to a very different standard that it has in years past. The failure to run candidates in over 30 Assembly races illustrates a defeatist attitude that Virginians refuse to accept. Many of these races that failed to have a Republican on the ballot were in Fairfax County. The perception now is that the party leadership ceded Fairfax to the Democrats who now hold every single seat in the Assembly represented by Fairfax residents.

The Speaker of the House in Eileen Filler-Corn (D-41) and Majority leader of the Virginia Senate Dick Saslaw (D-35) both come from the Fairfax County allocation of representation now in Richmond. Fairfax currently has (17) Delegate seats and (9) Senate seats controlled by Fairfax Democrats. The majority of the extreme gun control legislation being proposed and supported in Richmond is being patroned by officials from Fairfax. State Senator David Marsden (D-37) with Delegate Marl Levine (D-45) are some of the most extreme Progressives on the Democrat side joined by Kathy Tran (D-42) who authored the late term/infanticide abortion bill in the 2019 session.

The power of Fairfax County and Northern Virginia in general has led to great suspicion by Virginians living outside the region. Just suspicion and opposition to the very proposals being advanced has led to many Virginians to consider the growing movement in western Virginia called "Vexit". If Northern Virginia is going to control the direction the Commonwealth of Virginia's future, many Virginians consider leaving Virginia for West Virginia a viable option given the culture and politics are more similar to West Virginia than Northern Virginia. There are many hurdles to over come of course for "Vexit" to take root but the West Virginia legislature has already approved the acceptance of those Virginia counties wishing to join West Virginia.

Most Virginians have given little consideration to leaving the Commonwealth but with each passing bill this session in Richmond sentiment grows. The perception in rural Virginia is that Richmond no longer represents its interests let alone even listens to it. It does not help that you have a national Democrats continuing the "deplorable" narrative coupled with the "white nationalist" theme while they see a Governor who wears "blackface" with no consequence. It reinforces the notion there truly are two classes; the Richmond political elites and the rest of Virginia. At no time has the Governor of Virginia defended rural Virginians. This failure on Northam's part is fueling the contempt rural Virginia that is growing that will result in the transitioning from "opposition" to "resistance".

Democrats largely ignored the rally on Lobby Day in Richmond. Given the majority they now have many would see this as inevitable but what Democrats are underestimating is just how far Virginians are willing to resist Richmond. Its one thing to oppose the direction Richmond is going but resistance is entirely a different scenario. In many ways the Progressives of Northam's party have provided a road map of sorts to Virginians. Progressives are masters of the "protest", the "boycott"  and dare one say "doxxing" anything and anyone they oppose.

Northam and the Democrats expect the opposition to return to normalcy. The expectation is post rally in January that the opposition will wither away and die and Virginians will simply just accept the new laws and direction that the Progressives are taking Virginia into. Many Democrat officials have pointed to the example of the Tea Party movement and question the sustainability of any "resistance".

The question remains whether Virginia Republicans have learned anything from the Tea Party movement but one thing is certain and that is there has not been this level of engagement in decades. What this level of engagement will translate into or whether it transitions from mere "opposition" to "resistance" remains to be seen. The result will depend on each and every individual remaining committed and staying engaged in a new movement sweeping Virginia and see the new political paradigms before them. It is clear that while Northern Virginia continues to prosper other regions of the Commonwealth continue to lag behind with little to no assistance from Richmond.


While there exists loud outrage via social media today coming for the opposition, the fear for Virginia Democrats is that a unified voice takes root throughout Virginia or Virginians may coalesce behind a new leader from their ranks that will unite the movement. A leader for example with the will to transition the movement from opposition to resistance. In the face of Northam ignoring Virginians and the Democrats in Richmond calling pro-2a Virginians "delusional" and referring to them as mere "children", calls by some to defund the government very well may be heeded.

The issue Democrats face is that over one hundred counties and cities all across the Commonwealth of Virginia have passed or affirmed "gun sanctuary" status in direct opposition to the Northam Bloomberg Doctrine. Consider if every citizen living in these areas in protest sought extension to pay income taxes or withheld the filing all together. True Virginian resistance.

The reality is that Richmond only recognizes two things; power and money. The question remains just how determined Virginians are in truth and just how deeply they believe in their Constitutional rights. As it stands the opposition to truly transition to resistance will have to move from social media to action. Democrats are betting that as they strip more and more rights and assault liberty with every bill that the stomach for real resistance will never materialize.

It is anyone's guess just how far the Democrats in Richmond are willing to alienate a significant number of Virginians to achieve absolute power over Virginia. This November will demonstrate the true strength of the opposition in Virginia given every all eleven Congressional Districts are on the ballot as well as the Presidential race.

"There is snakes in the garden" and the questions remains just how long many Virginians will wait for the Virginia awakening.

#2AStrong in Virginia:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/578238489390036/








Saturday, February 1, 2020

Richmond Suburbia to Determine Outcome in 2020 Virginia 7th Congressional Race

There can be no argument that President Trump has tremendous support in the Virginia 7th Congressional District. Trump won the district by eight basis points and as it stands today if turnout in opposition to impeachment and Virginia gun control legislation is any indication that support is growing.

Rep. Abigail Spanbeger (D) the current holder of the VA07 seat is on record of being "all in" on gun control legislation and in support of impeachment of President Trump. Recent town halls with constituents have demonstrated there is increasing opposition to Spanberger's positions on both but make no mistake Spanberger is a very calculating politician and is playing to her suburban base.

Join in discussion here at Chasing Victory in Virginia: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

In 2018 the primary method  for U.S Senate selected Corey Stewart over Del. Nick Freitas and E.W. Jackson. The primary method was selected by the Virginia Republican Party State Central Committee. Stewart won the primary with 44.87% whereas Freitas earned 43.14%. Important to Freitas is the fact the majority of support for his Senate bid came from Central Virginia precincts that are included in the Virginia 7th Congressional District.

Nick Freitas won re-election in the Virginia 30th House District after having missed the filing deadline and having to run as a write-in candidate. While Freitas has latched on the 2A Gun Sanctuary movement as a means of elevating his profile given his recent declaration to run for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Spanberger for the VA-07 seat.

Here is some of the history in the VA-07:

David Brat (R) defeated Eric Cantor(R) in 2014 primary in the VA07 even though Cantor spent over 6 million dollars. Brat won the primary by just over ten points winning 55.55% to 44.45%. Brat went on to defeat the Democrat nominee Jack Trammell but earnjing 60% of the vote in the VA07. Brat was not primaried in 2016 and won handily in 2016 defeating Eileen Bedell with 57% of the vote.

In 2018, Abigail Spanberger won the Democrat nomination to face David Brat (R). Spanberger earned over 70% of the primary vote and would go on to defeat incumbent David Brat (R) in November 2018 50.34% to 48.40%.

It is important to note the while Democrats like to throw around the word "legitimate" the fact remains that Spanberger does not defeat David Brat (R) without the 2016 redistricting of the VA07. Redistricting removed Hanover precincts from the VA07 that had supported Republicans in prior elections by almost 70%.

For example in 2014, David Brat (R) earned over 26,000 votes in Hanover County and won the County with 69.52% of the vote. In 2016 the Hanover voters were removed from the VA07. Brat still defeated his challenger in 2016  but with about four points less of a margin. In 2018, Spanberger would defeat Brat by two basis points.

In 2016 Henrico County which had long been a Republican bell weather began to shift politically as the suburban county continued to grow with younger families and first time home buyers. In 2016 the race for the seat was a virtual dead heat between Brat and Bedell. Brat won Henrico with 50.77%.

Things would drastically change for Brat in 2018 in Henrico. Losing the support of the Hanover precincts would finally catch up with the Republicans as in 2018 Spanberger would carry Henrico by eighteen points with 58.57% of the vote with about five thousand less voters turning out than in 2016 which was Presidential year but almost forty thousand more voters than the election of 2014 that saw Brat win Henrico County by ten thousand votes.

So in 2014 Brat won Henrico County by ten thousand votes and in 2016 won  by about one thousand votes. In 2018, Rep. Abigail Spanberger literally decimated Republican in her home county of Henrico by twenty thousand votes.

20,000.

Spanberger base of support is predominately Henrico and Chesterfield. Henrico has not formally endorsed a real gun sanctuary resolution whereas Chesterfield County recently adopted one. While supporting Spanberger in 2018, Chesterfield recently elected a Republican Board of Supervisors and Republican members to both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates. Henrico County remains dominated by Democrat officials in the Assembly with the exception of State Senator Dunnavant (R).

The road to victory in the Virginia 7th Congressional District will be determined in Henrico County in 2020. David Brat (R) defeated Rep. Abigail Spanberger in every county in 2018 except Henrico County (-18pts) and Chesterfield(-10pts). Clearly Spanberger's advantage in the VA-07 is the suburban vote outside Richmond.

One important development though for Republicans is State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) representing Henrico County held her seat last November when the Virginia Democrats secured majority of that body. Dunnavant won with 50.76%. Dunnavant has transitioned herself to being a moderate and has been taking serious criticisms of late by conservative Republicans regarding her voting thus far in the 2020 General Assembly. Furthermore, Dunnavant ran away from President Trump during her campaigning in 2019.

The question remains which of the Republican potential nominees could secure enough support in the suburbia to offset the Spanberger base. Republican turnout is poised to be historic in the rural communities in large part due to recent actions taken by the Democrat controlled Virginia Assembly. Every county other than Henrico has taken up a gun sanctuary resolution in response to the Democrat extremism in Richmond. Increasing the turnout in the rural areas of the VA-07 will only better serve the prospects of defeating Spanberger given the narrow victory she had in 2018.

The biggest influence regarding turnout however will be President Trump. Having Trump on the ballot should have a direct impact on the ability for Republicans to turnout voters to support the nominee. Recently, all potential nominees for the Republican Party challenge have pledged to support whoever secure the nomination at the Virginia 7th Congressional District Convention.

Many Virginians would prefer to see Delegate Nick Freitas remain in the Assembly and run for Governor of Virginia in 2021. Currently the only two Republican officials that appear to be raising their profiles are Frietas and State Senator Amanda Chase(R). Supporters of Chase have already created a facebook group for supporting her potential candidacy for Governor. Chase currently has been the most vocal opponent of Governor Northam and the Democrats in Richmond and has in fact called for the recall of the Governor.

While Freitas has some name recognition resulting from his U.S. Senate bid, Tina Ramirez another potential nominee had out fund raised all others in the race at start of 2020. Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs offer voters very different backgrounds and the depth of the pool of candidates this cycle is very promising. The field is full of veterans and those working in government and outside advancing freedom and liberty.

https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1351000/andrew-f-knaggs/

Andrew Knaggs is graduate of the United States Military Academy and the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Combating Terrorism. Knaggs served as a Army Special Forces and served in Iraq. Both Delegates Freitas and John McGuire are veterans as well. Freitas served in the U.S. Army and McGuire was a Navy Seal.

The Convention in March (now July) will determine the nominee to face Spanberger and Delegates should consider that victory will certainly go through Richmond suburbia and any candidate selected will have to resonate much better than David Brat (R) in 2018. The campaign must also be run in a very coordinated manner in order to bite into the eighteen point deficiency that occurred in 2018 in Henrico County.

J.Scott