Is the GOP in Trouble in VA-07?: Henrico County

 

Any analysis of a particular race in Virginia these days often triggers many defense mechanisms. For too long these defense mechanisms have created a situation of denial for the Virginia GOP in which there has been little acknowledgement or change in the party messaging given the changing demographics on the ground in many localities in Virginia.

An objective analysis here based not only historical voting trends, demographics, metrics but also conversations with voters on the ground in Henrico County going into next months Congressional contest in the VA-07.

The VA-07 is an historically a very conservative district in Virginia currently represented by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) elected in 2018 during to so-called "blue wave" election that was the first Congressional cycle following the election of President Trump in 2016.

The Virginia GOP is seeking to unseat Rep. Spanberger and nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) late summer to challenge her via a nominating convention. Freitas was nominated after three rounds of ballots at the convention held in Doswell, Virginia.

I respect Delegate Nick Freitas and find him to be an outstanding Delegate from Culpeper County who is in my opinion one of the best orators on the floor of the Virginia House of Delegates. While Freitas ran in 2018 for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and lost to Corey Stewart (R), I hope that the result of this election does not negatively impact the future of this rising star in the Virginia GOP. Elections always can offer surprises however this cycle is probably one of the most divisive in Virginia history since the Presidential Election of 1860.

Often it is inevitable that "down ballot" candidates can be at the mercy of the Presidential race. One recent factor with independent voters is the takeaway from the first and possibly only Presidential debate last week that many perceived as the worst in debate history.

The coming 2020 Census will certainly reveal even more changes in demographics that have occurred in the last decade in Henrico County, however what is obvious to any political analyst is the the trends on the ground in suburban areas have shifted from supporting Republicans in Virginia overwhelmingly a decade ago to now supporting Democrats in Presidential, Congressional and statewide races for the Virginia Executive.

The Virginia Seventh Congressional District offers us insight into this shift given two of the largest suburban localities in Virginia comprise the majority of voters in the district. Both Chesterfield County and Henrico County were once Republican strongholds in Virginia election history. The latter no longer can be considered a Republican stronghold given the shift in the last decade and the former may shift left as well in the coming cycle.

Understand this. 

Henrico County will determine the winner of the Congressional race in 2020 for the VA-07.

No examination of the race for the VA-07 Congressional seat can ignore what has happened in Henrico County over the last few years politically. Henrico County truly illustrates the ground that the Virginia GOP has lost in suburbia. Many pundits on the right would likely disagree but the voting metrics reveal a very distinct transformation in voting behavior in suburbs the more the Virginia GOP takes extreme positions on social issues and federal immigration policies.  The messaging remains mixed and the perception is that the Virginia GOP does not support immigrants even though the intent was to address "illegal" immigrants. Candidates like Corey Stewart and State Senator Amanda Chase have alienated many immigrants according to many residents in the VA-07.

What has contributed to this shift in voting trends?

The biggest factor is clearly the demographic change that Henrico with roughly 330,000 residents has experienced over the last decade. 

One of the changes is that there are now more women living in Henrico now representing 52%+ of the population. A population now has a growing non-white population where the Blacks represent 30%, Asians 10% and Hispanics now 7%. This constitutes an estimated 47% of the population in Henrico.

The GOP nationally is facing declines in support from women and immigrant groups. Some political analysts and firms that track such polling data have estimated that the GOP is now -34% with women and -19% with immigrant populations. Whether one agrees with such analysis or not the metrics of this are playing out at the polls and is demonstrated in the correlation in the decline of Republican support in Henrico in the last few election cycles.

Henrico by any estimation is an affluent locality. 18% of population has a post graduate degree and 52% of the population as at least some college or a college degree. These metrics represent 10% higher than the Virginia averages.

Another relevant factor in 2020 is the rising 16% of the population that is 65+. This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP and the Nick Freitas campaign because national polling is demonstrating that President Trump is losing support of seniors dramatically compared to 2016. 

One of the biggest metrics now in Henrico in terms of elections is the fact that 13.5% of the population is now "foreign born". This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP on the coat tails of the Corey Stewart 2018 campaign for U.S. Senate and the current campaign for the GOP nomination for Governor by Amanda Freeman Chase for 2021. The GOP has steadily lost support in the immigrant community since 2013 after earning a large share of it in 2009.  The majority of immigrants coming to Henrico are from Asia (55%) and Latin America (23%) followed by Europe (12%) and Africa (9%). There appears little outreach efforts thus far from the Republican Party of Virginia this cycle to appeal to the immigrant communities throughout Virginia.

The factor that appears to have not drawn virtually any messaging from the GOP and specifically the Nick Freitas campaign is that the majority of new business start-ups have come from women and "foreign born" Virginians in Henrico. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis has directly impacted many of these business yet there appears to be very little mention of how President Trump's actions have supported the business communities whether lower corporate taxes or stimulus provisions to support small business. Rep. Spanberger has leveraged thus far the actions of Congress in terms of the first stimulus to her own ends in touting support for small business.

An example of the Spanberger pitch:

"For 2 years, I’ve worked to be a strong voice in Congress on the issues that impact people’s daily lives in #VA07. -Lowering the cost of prescription drugs -Expanding broadband internet access -Recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic"

Freitas is a Army veteran and 6.3% of the Henrico population are veterans with the overwhelming majority having served in Vietnam and the Gulf War 1990's. Recent polling has demonstrated weaker support from veterans in 2020 for Trump than in 2016 and this should be a real concern as well for the Freitas campaign. Rep. Scott Taylor is experiencing the same dynamic in his challenge for his old seat in the VA-02 comprising the Virginia Beach region.

The median income for residents of Henrico is roughly 68,000. This is a factor that should play well for the Freitas campaign however there has been very little messaging regarding the Trump tax cuts thus far from the campaign that certainly benefited a majority of residents living in Henrico. Instead the majority of the messaging thus far has targeted Rep. Abigail Spanberger's (D) voting record in Congress the last two years and her alignment with some of the most liberal in the House of Representatives.

What is interesting is the continued attempted links to Speaker of House Pelosi and the Spanberger voting record and the assertion that Spanberger is not as "moderate" or "blue dog" as she campaigns compared to when she is voting in Washington appears to be an extension of similar messaging that failed Rep. David Brat (R) in 2018. Spanberger in truth does not appear to have a very "moderate" record at all however the message does not appear to resonate with many voters in the manner in which it is asserted.

Thus far the approach appears to be a strategy set on "voting against" Spanberger as opposed to "voting for" Nick Freitas. The issue with this approach in talking with voters in Henrico  is that while the Presidential election very well may be a "referendum" election on Trump, many voters do not see this Congressional election in the VA-07 as a "referendum" on Spanberger. Spanberger like Freitas is very lpersonable nd likeable figure when you speak with people whom have met both of them

I recently had the opportunity to speak with some voters from Henrico where my wife lived for a time and what is rather interesting is the amount of split voting that may occur next month among independent voters that thus far is not showing up in any polling. It is estimated that roughly 14% of voters nationally are independent voters and these voters are often less concerned with "policy" per say as many other voters. They are not partisans by any means and many have voted for Democrats as many times as Republicans. Many for example supported Trump in 2016 yet supported Democrats in 2017 for Delegates representing Henrico in the Virginia General Assembly. These very seats have all flipped the last decade to the Democrats in the county.

What has to be  (or should be) alarming to the Virginia GOP is the steep decline in support for Republican candidates in Henrico County.

Out of a population of 330,000 some 105,000 voters turned out in 2018 at the polls in the last Congressional race for the VA-07. Spanberger won Henrico County 60.96% to 36.89% over Rep. David Brat (R).

In 2016 Rep. David Brat had won the county with 50.77% of the vote but came in -14% cycle over cycle. There are some reasons of course in examining the decline in support for the GOP candidates  however not one more meaningful than redistricting. The GOP used to have the support of Hanover County precincts to the tune of 70% in the years that Rep. Eric Cantor (R) held the seat when the GOP dominated the VA-07 at the polls.

In statewide races Henrico shifted from support of statewide and national Republicans to Democratic candidates where it once supported the likes of Bob McDonnell (R) for Governor in 2009 but by 2013 had started to shift to the left at the polls. Governor Terry McAuliffe decimated Republicans in 2013 with an astounding 51.2% to 38% over Ken Cuccinelli. Subsequent candidates from the GOP have met similar fate though Brat did win in an off cycle election in 2014 with 55% of the vote. 

If we examine Rep. David Brat's performance in VA-07 after defeating Rep.Eric Cantor (R) in an historic primary with the support of the Tea Party the movement quickly fizzled out and was reabsorbed back into into the GOP much to the dismay of many within it. Thus from 2014 where Brat earned 55%  in Henrico he declined to 50.77% in 2016 and ultimately 36.89%. Overall throughout the VA-07 in 2018 Brat earned 48.40%  some 12 points better than he performed in Henrico.

What is interesting when speaking to Henrico County voters when one canvasses or speaks to residents is that there is still support for some local Republicans. State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant withheld a challenge in 2019 by Delegate Debra Rodman (D) who she defeated 50.76% to 49.06%. Much of this can be attributed to the Hanover precincts that remain in the VA-12 Senate District that no longer are part of the VA-07 Congressional. 

Dunnavant outperformed both President Trump and Rep. David Brat in heavily "red" precincts and many of them by four to six basis points.

Lets examine a few precincts that will impact the 2020 Congressional race for the GOP:

103: Glen Allen

2012 : 61.95 (Cantor) 2016 : 60.38 (Brat) 2016:  49% Trump 2018:  48.57 (Brat) 2019:  Dunnavant 54.37

302: Cedarfield

2012: 64% (Cantor)  2016: 62% (Brat)   2016: 50% (Trump)  2018: 51% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 57%

403: Derbyshire

2012: 69% (Cantor)   2016: 66% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 55% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 60%

417: Tuckahoe

2012: 72% (Cantor)   2016: 69% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 56% (Brat)  2019  Dunnavant  65%

These are heavily conservative leaning precincts and illustrate that even among these districts there have been shifts metrics wise over last decade.

Some other races to consider: Henrico supported the following-

Hillary Clinton (D) 2016- 57%

Governor Ralph Northam (D) 2017 52%

U.S Senator Tim Kaine (D) 2018 57%

Now worth consideration for supporters of the Virginia GOP to consider is that the two Republican candidates that have outperformed all other GOP candidates are:

State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R)  2019 50.76%

Jill Vogel (Lt. Governor Candidate) 2017 50%

Republicans must overcome the denial of the trends on the ground in suburbia that Henrico illustrate. The two women representing the GOP on ballots in Henrico County recently are the very two Republicans that the State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase wing of the party ( Cuccinelli, Stewart, Brat) have railed against and attempted to label as "Liberal Republicans" or  "Establishment" yet it appears these State Senators appeal to voters and know how to appeal to voters via dedicated messaging that speaks to families in the suburbs. Another is Lt. Governor Bill Bolling from Hanover that pulled in 56.29% of the vote across Virginia in 2009 and has become a target of the Chase campaign in recent weeks rehashing the 2013 race in which Bolling withdrew and AG Ken Cuccinelli supported by Chase won the nomination and ultimately lost to Governor Terry McAuliffe (D).

Given the trends on the ground and the historical metrics, the Virginia GOP and Delegate Nick Freitas appear in real trouble even in the wake of over reach by the Virginia State Legislature in the last year and an aggressive GOTV effort for GOP supporters.

I anticipate the following results next month in the VA-07 UNLESS messaging changes in the next three weeks----for example have yet to see a single Spanish ad this cycle or heard one on the radio thus far from Freitas ( if anyone has please comment below so I may locate it). 6% of the population speaks Spanish as primary language in the home in Henrico and there is a significant rising population in Spotsylvania and Chesterfield Counties. This something that Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) used effectively in 2009 yet the consultant trend in the GOP is to not spend in this area it seems the last few cycles. A correlation can be drawn directly to this lack of focus to the declining trend in Hispanic support for Virginia GOP statewide and Congressional candidates.

Important to note: 

2016 Trump won VA-07 51.14% to 43.30%

Amelia County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Chesterfield County: (113,000 voters) Spanberger

Culpeper County: (20,000 voters) Freitas

Goochland County: (13,000 voters) Freitas

Henrico County:(105,000 voters) Spanberger

Louisa County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Nottoway County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Orange County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Powhatan County; (18,000 voters) Freitas

Spotsylvania County: (38,000 voters) Freitas 

I expect Delegate Nick Freitas to win every rural locality in the VA-07 which all lean Conservative however I expect Rep. Abigail Spanberger to win re-election because she will will hold serve in both Henrico County and Chesterfield County she won in 2018. Spanberger easily wins Henrico County however Chesterfield while very tight race in 2016 between Trump and Clinton with Trump only winning the historically conservative Chesterfield by less than 1% supported Spanberger two years later in 2018 by 10 points.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott

New Facebook Candidate Discussion Group Formed

The Covid-19 crisis has left most of us all at home of course and the new craze is of course zoom and all the new ways in which we all staying connected. Life however goes on and the thought process after weeks of deliberation is to move away from "echo chambers" and develop new means of discussion where people could voice concerns on issues and polices, seek answers to questions they may have regarding conventions, primaries or just elections in general. Things like the absentee balloting process and other areas related to elections but also all the candidates.

2020 Virginia has all of its Congressional seats on the ballot and one U.S. Seante seat.

Do you know who those are running for the nominations?

This group intends to introduce everyone to the candidates and often in their own words now that videos have become immensely popular.

"We are forming a new discussion group regarding all the candidates in Virginia for 2020-21. Hope you will join the group and provide insight and opinion on any of those on Virginia ballots in 2020-21"

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

Richmond Suburbia to Determine Outcome in 2020 Virginia 7th Congressional Race

There can be no argument that President Trump has tremendous support in the Virginia 7th Congressional District. Trump won the district by eight basis points and as it stands today if turnout in opposition to impeachment and Virginia gun control legislation is any indication that support is growing.

Rep. Abigail Spanbeger (D) the current holder of the VA07 seat is on record of being "all in" on gun control legislation and in support of impeachment of President Trump. Recent town halls with constituents have demonstrated there is increasing opposition to Spanberger's positions on both but make no mistake Spanberger is a very calculating politician and is playing to her suburban base.

Join in discussion here at Chasing Victory in Virginia: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

In 2018 the primary method  for U.S Senate selected Corey Stewart over Del. Nick Freitas and E.W. Jackson. The primary method was selected by the Virginia Republican Party State Central Committee. Stewart won the primary with 44.87% whereas Freitas earned 43.14%. Important to Freitas is the fact the majority of support for his Senate bid came from Central Virginia precincts that are included in the Virginia 7th Congressional District.

Nick Freitas won re-election in the Virginia 30th House District after having missed the filing deadline and having to run as a write-in candidate. While Freitas has latched on the 2A Gun Sanctuary movement as a means of elevating his profile given his recent declaration to run for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Spanberger for the VA-07 seat.

Here is some of the history in the VA-07:

David Brat (R) defeated Eric Cantor(R) in 2014 primary in the VA07 even though Cantor spent over 6 million dollars. Brat won the primary by just over ten points winning 55.55% to 44.45%. Brat went on to defeat the Democrat nominee Jack Trammell but earnjing 60% of the vote in the VA07. Brat was not primaried in 2016 and won handily in 2016 defeating Eileen Bedell with 57% of the vote.

In 2018, Abigail Spanberger won the Democrat nomination to face David Brat (R). Spanberger earned over 70% of the primary vote and would go on to defeat incumbent David Brat (R) in November 2018 50.34% to 48.40%.

It is important to note the while Democrats like to throw around the word "legitimate" the fact remains that Spanberger does not defeat David Brat (R) without the 2016 redistricting of the VA07. Redistricting removed Hanover precincts from the VA07 that had supported Republicans in prior elections by almost 70%.

For example in 2014, David Brat (R) earned over 26,000 votes in Hanover County and won the County with 69.52% of the vote. In 2016 the Hanover voters were removed from the VA07. Brat still defeated his challenger in 2016  but with about four points less of a margin. In 2018, Spanberger would defeat Brat by two basis points.

In 2016 Henrico County which had long been a Republican bell weather began to shift politically as the suburban county continued to grow with younger families and first time home buyers. In 2016 the race for the seat was a virtual dead heat between Brat and Bedell. Brat won Henrico with 50.77%.

Things would drastically change for Brat in 2018 in Henrico. Losing the support of the Hanover precincts would finally catch up with the Republicans as in 2018 Spanberger would carry Henrico by eighteen points with 58.57% of the vote with about five thousand less voters turning out than in 2016 which was Presidential year but almost forty thousand more voters than the election of 2014 that saw Brat win Henrico County by ten thousand votes.

So in 2014 Brat won Henrico County by ten thousand votes and in 2016 won  by about one thousand votes. In 2018, Rep. Abigail Spanberger literally decimated Republican in her home county of Henrico by twenty thousand votes.

20,000.

Spanberger base of support is predominately Henrico and Chesterfield. Henrico has not formally endorsed a real gun sanctuary resolution whereas Chesterfield County recently adopted one. While supporting Spanberger in 2018, Chesterfield recently elected a Republican Board of Supervisors and Republican members to both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates. Henrico County remains dominated by Democrat officials in the Assembly with the exception of State Senator Dunnavant (R).

The road to victory in the Virginia 7th Congressional District will be determined in Henrico County in 2020. David Brat (R) defeated Rep. Abigail Spanberger in every county in 2018 except Henrico County (-18pts) and Chesterfield(-10pts). Clearly Spanberger's advantage in the VA-07 is the suburban vote outside Richmond.

One important development though for Republicans is State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) representing Henrico County held her seat last November when the Virginia Democrats secured majority of that body. Dunnavant won with 50.76%. Dunnavant has transitioned herself to being a moderate and has been taking serious criticisms of late by conservative Republicans regarding her voting thus far in the 2020 General Assembly. Furthermore, Dunnavant ran away from President Trump during her campaigning in 2019.

The question remains which of the Republican potential nominees could secure enough support in the suburbia to offset the Spanberger base. Republican turnout is poised to be historic in the rural communities in large part due to recent actions taken by the Democrat controlled Virginia Assembly. Every county other than Henrico has taken up a gun sanctuary resolution in response to the Democrat extremism in Richmond. Increasing the turnout in the rural areas of the VA-07 will only better serve the prospects of defeating Spanberger given the narrow victory she had in 2018.

The biggest influence regarding turnout however will be President Trump. Having Trump on the ballot should have a direct impact on the ability for Republicans to turnout voters to support the nominee. Recently, all potential nominees for the Republican Party challenge have pledged to support whoever secure the nomination at the Virginia 7th Congressional District Convention.

Many Virginians would prefer to see Delegate Nick Freitas remain in the Assembly and run for Governor of Virginia in 2021. Currently the only two Republican officials that appear to be raising their profiles are Frietas and State Senator Amanda Chase(R). Supporters of Chase have already created a facebook group for supporting her potential candidacy for Governor. Chase currently has been the most vocal opponent of Governor Northam and the Democrats in Richmond and has in fact called for the recall of the Governor.

While Freitas has some name recognition resulting from his U.S. Senate bid, Tina Ramirez another potential nominee had out fund raised all others in the race at start of 2020. Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs offer voters very different backgrounds and the depth of the pool of candidates this cycle is very promising. The field is full of veterans and those working in government and outside advancing freedom and liberty.

https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1351000/andrew-f-knaggs/

Andrew Knaggs is graduate of the United States Military Academy and the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Combating Terrorism. Knaggs served as a Army Special Forces and served in Iraq. Both Delegates Freitas and John McGuire are veterans as well. Freitas served in the U.S. Army and McGuire was a Navy Seal.

The Convention in March (now July) will determine the nominee to face Spanberger and Delegates should consider that victory will certainly go through Richmond suburbia and any candidate selected will have to resonate much better than David Brat (R) in 2018. The campaign must also be run in a very coordinated manner in order to bite into the eighteen point deficiency that occurred in 2018 in Henrico County.

J.Scott