Will State Senator Amanda Chase Run as an Independent?

State Senator Amanda Chase (I-R) from Chesterfield County representing the VA-11 Senate District today posted on her social media page that she would make an announcement today regarding her intentions regarding the 2021 Virginia Governors race.

Chase has teased for months that she would run as an independent having walked away from the GOP Senate Caucus last November after the selections were made for leadership within the caucus and after earlier in that month being removed from her local GOP committee the Chesterfield County Republican Committee (CCRC) for violating party rules.

Here is the release from State Senator Chase:

"TODAY is a BIG DAY!!

Will I run as a Republican or Independent?

This will be determined today.

While representing ALL people in the Senate as a Republican for the past 5 years; I am proudly a Christian, Conservative, Republican and in that order.

My voting record confirms that I have a solid conservative voting record:

100% rating VCDL, ALL 5 years

A rating, NRA

100% rating, Family Foundation, ALL 5 years

100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years

Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party (see end of post for Fact Checks)

The Republican Party of Virginia decides today if we have a convention or statewide primary for the Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General 2021 candidates.

As many of you know I’ve said I will fully seek the Republican nomination for Governor in a primary only. If a political consultant controlled party convention is chosen I will run as an Independent. I made this announcement publicly back in February when I announced my run for Governor."

The prospects of a successful independent run are slim statewide in Virginia for any candidate but for Chase even more so. Chase appears to now have moved in the opposite direction that the majority of Virginians. Chase is prominent former Tea Part activist from early in the last decade and worked on campaigns before herself challenging an incumbent in the VA-11. Chase challenged Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary and defeated him in 2015. Chase held great promise in 2016 as she entered the State Senate, but appears to have squandered her early successes. With the election of President Trump and the reactionary election of 2018 across Virginia that resulted in significant losses to the Virginia GOP, Chase moved further right in both rhetoric and position that got her elected. Chase presented herself as a "reformer" yet in five years in the Virginia Senate has done little to change state government rather spending more of her time wrangling with media and with the Virginia GOP. Chase has attempted to run what could only be described as a "Trump-light" effort using the same social media tactics to build a name for herself. Chase has portrayed herself as the "anti-Northam" candidate and has focused much of her campaign on campaigning against Northam whom will not be on the ballot next year and ignoring the declared candidates from the Democratic Party.

This strategy has placed her in direct opposition of 60% of Virginians who recently in polling support Northam and his handling of the pandemic and very well may be alienating voters. Just across the Potomac River, Governor Larry Hogan (R) who some believe will run for President in 2024 has unleashed a massive WEAR THE DAM MASK" campaign while Chase appears to continue her opposition to masks and mask mandates by Governor Northam. Most polling points to the overwhelming support for mask coverings during this stage of the pandemic and Chase's opposition appears unaligned with the direction most in Virginia are moving.

This is not unusual for Chase. Her entire campaign appears predicated on failed positions. Many political analysts see Chase has attempting to resurrect the Tea Party movement in Virginia however the last six years has proven that Virginians have rejected such positions overall and candidates. Chase speaks to her work with the Rep. David Brat campaign in his election to Congress where the Tea Party was effective in removing Rep. Eric Cantor via primary. This could be the reason as to why Chase seeks a primary over convention.

Another aspect that many insiders believe is that Chase while running for Governor fully understands that it is a very uphill road and has intentions on running for Congress in 2022 now that Del. Nick Freitas has lost his bid to unseat Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) in Virginia 7th. Chase has called Freitas a friend and was one of the few endorsements Chase made in 2020. Chase actively was involved on the campaign trail for her own race while attending many events in the VA-07 alongside Freitas.

It is important to note that Chase could not help Freitas secure victory last month in her own county of Chesterfield where Freitas lost by 11 points. Chase has not acknowledged the fact that Chesterfield County has changed and is no longer a "solid red" county in the GOP stable. Chesterfield for the first time in the post WWII supported a Democrat for President in former VP Joe Biden and in the Congressional race supported Spanberger for a second time in four years.

Chase in truth has her own issues at home regardless of the status of the nominating process. Chase won her district in 2015 by 27 poonts yet only managed a win in 2019 by 9 points. That is a significant decline in support and even more alarming when you consider in 2016 Chase's district was one of the most overwhelmingly supportive of President Trump.

The biggest concern right now for any campaign is money not nomination method. Chase has been in the race the longest of any candidate of either party and has raised the least amount of any declared candidate as of Sept. 1. Chase has only raised 200,000 where freshman Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy (D) has already raised over 750,000 and joined the race some four months after Chase. Now that a second candidate in Del. Kirk Cox (R) has officially declared, Chase appears to have lost an immense opportunity the last ten months when she had all the oxygen.

What can only be described as "classic Chase", Chase is demanding that the Virginia GOP do what she wants in terms of the nominating process issuing a threat of sorts however such efforts backfired on Chase in November 2019 ultimately resulting with her departure from the GOP Caucus. Chase preference for the primary process is interesting given her lack of money. Typically conventions regardless of the Chase claims on her page costs candidates less money that statewide primaries. The audience of a convention of course is much more defined and smaller. The issue that Chase faces with these convention goers is they have been to the circus and seen the strings more times than not. Many are actively engaged in politics far more than average general election voters. Chase herself was a delegate to the convention held in August that nominated Del. Nick Freitas over first time candidate Tina Ramirez. Many have asserted that these convention goers know Chase far too well and would not support her initially on a first ballot and where depending upon how many declare to run could see Chase out of the nomination race after the first balloting.

If Chase does declare today to run as an "independent" than Virginians can fully expect to see her running for Congress in 2022 after losing a third party bid for Governor in 2021. Chase does have other issues to sort out at home as well as many rumbles have begun in Chesterfield to unseat Chase as State Senator in 2023. Much will be determined by the redistricting planning that may go into effect before the next Virginia Senate race in 2023 with new lines being drawn but one thing is certain; Chase will be primaried as she primaried Senator Steve Martin in 2015.

**** Fact Check on the Amanda Chase Facebook post today*****

Chase stated the following:

"100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years "

Fact Check:

Chase received rating of 83% 2016-17 her first two sessions in the Virginia Senate not 5 years at 100%

Chase claims "Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party":

Ratings- Virginia Tea Party Federation 94% (2019) Fiscal Conservative Issues

84% (2019) Conservative Issues

100% (2012-19) Civil Libertarian Issues

Other examples of Legislators with Same ratings as Chase or better:

Del. Kirk Cox (R) 100% VCDL rating 2020

100% Family Foundation 2020

100% Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2019

100% Nat. Federation of Independent Business 2017-19

Sen. Jill Vogel (R) 100% National Rifle Association

100% Virginia Tea Party Federation (2017- H/I)

Del. Nick Freitas (R) 100% VCDL rating

Important to note Ratings: CHASE

American Conservative Union 89% (2018)

Virginia Chamber of Commerce 73% (2019)

VA-07 Election Anaysis: The More Things Change the More They Stay The Same

As the data and the metrics continue to come pouring in and the result in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District (VA-07) no longer appears in doubt, the Republican Party of Virginia should wast little time in diving into the data points that determined the election last week in favor of Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) for a second time in two years.

There should be some level of concern on the part of Republicans that should not be dismissed by the establishment interest or the political consultant class. Many Republican campaigns have used the same consultants over the course of the last decade that appear to have not read the electorate at large or the metrics on the ground especially well in suburban Virginia. There appears a widening disconnect between the GOP candidates and suburban voters, especially suburban women, minorities and "foreign born" voters.

The fact remains that the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has steadily lost the suburban vote over the last seven years. Consultants would like to lay much of this at the feet of President Trump however this is an easy out for them that often is not substantiated by the many of the metrics.

For example, in 2020 President Trump outperformed many of the Republican candidates for Congress. One rising star for the RPV is Aliscia Andrews (R) who ran in the VA-10 and managed to generated higher percentages than Trump in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties in her district. In her precincts in Prince William County, Andrews outperformed Trump by 13 points and in Fairfax County by 10 points followed by Loudoun County and Clarke County by 3 points.

Conversely, President Trump outperformed candidates like Bob Good (R) in VA-05 and Del. Nick Freitas in VA-07 in about half as many of the counties in the districts and not simply rural localities. In an election cycle where the media all but declared suburbia for the Democrats as a repudiation of Trump, not all of suburbia reflected that narrative.

Trump managed to raise his percentage in Henrico County from 36.60% in 2016 to 38.73% however Del. Nick Freitas came in under both Trump's 2020 performance as well as Rep. David Brat's 40.12% in 2018 for the seat in VA-07. Del. Freitas would lose Henrico 60.64% to 39.18 where Rep. Spanberger increased her voting percentage by 2 points from 2018. 

Spanberger also managed to raise her voting percentage in Chesterfield County just under a percent as the difference in the result resulted in the same 10 point margin in the Democrats favor. Spanberger outperformed Biden almost a point in Chesterfield and over a point in Henrico. Spanberger raised her vote count in Chesterfield County from 60,897 in 2018 to 80,161 in 2020 and in Henrico from 63,892 in 2018 to 80,421 in 2020. These two localities represent the lions share of votes cast in the VA-07.

Online surveys indicate that the one of the issues that put Delegate Nick Freitas on the defensive with suburban voters was the manner in which Spanberger used "preexisting conditions" and an "autism vote" to characterize Freitas. Spanberger raised over 4 million dollars and used these resources against Freitas in repeated ad campaigns and online media using the healthcare issues has a focal point.

Following the election in a caucus call, Rep. Spanberger stated that the Democrats "need to not ever use the term socialist or socialism ever again" and that the messaging regarding "defunding the police" nearly cost Spanberger the race in 2020. The comments illustrate the differences between Spanberger and the progressives in the Democrat Party and actually puts her at odds with many Virginia Democrats in Richmond. There is some suspicion that the Spanberger team leaked the audio from the caucus call given the team recognizes that 2022 may be in jeopardy for her if a Biden administration is directed by the progressives in Washington.

On the Republican side, many are already seeking Delegate Freitas to run again in 2022 given the tightness of the race but in evaluating the trends and metrics this may not actually be the best course of action for RPV given Freitas has now lost a U.S. Senate statewide primary and a Congressional race  within last two years.  Scott Taylor (R) sought to take back his seat lost in 2018 forgoing a U.S. Senate run and failed to win the VA-02 last week. 

In examining the House races that the GOP won in 2020, it is Republican women that seem to outperform expectations.  Two examples were winners Nicole Malliotakis (R) in NY-11 and Maria Salazar in FL-27.Given the makeup of the Virginia suburbs and the rising trends of women and minority owned businesses in suburban Richmond, the RPV needs to evaluate these metrics to ensure that any candidate has appeal to this metric.

The fact remains that any Republican nominated in the VA-07 in 2022 would likely win most of the rural districts. These voters must turnout in 2022 of course but the GOP must have a candidate that can appeal to at least 46% of the suburban electorate or the RPV to flip VA-07. How the RPV responds to a typical decline in turnout after a Presidential election will certainly be something to keep and eye on with its new Chairman in Rich Anderson.

The reason for this is that the Democrats increased its turnout but not its voting percentages compared to the Republicans. Only in Goochland and Powhatan did Spanberger raise her "rural" percentage  and it was by less than a percent. While this should concern the Democrats if the GOP can turnout voters in 2022 should Biden finally get certified as the winner, the Democrats will continue to focus on the suburban vote that has delivered Spanberger two elections in a row now. In back to back cycles, Spanberger has only won two counties out of ten in the district.

Concerning for the RPV is the following areas in "rural" Virginia that Del. Nick Freitas under performed Trump: (Trump/Freitas)

Amelia County  68.29%  (67.38)

Louisa County 60.66%  (60.07)

Nottoway County 56.89%  (55.10)

Powhatan County 71.24% (70.62)

Orange County 59.91%  (59.73%)

There is a question in terms of Democratic turnout if the election was a referendum on Trump in truth or support for Biden. Places like Louisa County which appears to be moving move with VA-05 counties in terms of trends saw an increase of about 2,500 Democratic voters over 2018  and Spanberger in 2020 outperformed Clinton by 4 points. Spanberger outperformed Clinton (34.83%) with 40.81% in 2020 adding 2,000 voters from 2016 in support for her campaign. Orange County experienced almost an identical result where Clinton earned 34.50% and Spanberger earned 40.08% in 2020. Spanberger took advantage of almost two thousand more Democratic voters over 2016 turnout for Clinton.

A positive for Delegate Freitas was he raised voting percentages in all but two counties; Henrico and Goochland.  It is important to also consider that Freitas (39.18%) under performed in terms of appeal to left leaning districts in terms of margin as State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) 2019 race performance where Dunnavant's 49.14% in Henrico helped her secure victory in a very tight election against Delegate Debra Rodman (D) 50.76% to 49.06%. Freitas did perform very well in established Republican precincts in Henrico but these could not propel him to a county victory where Spanberger won 60.64%.

The question than becomes will the RPV recognize the appeal and the criticisms such leaders as State Amanda Chase seeking the GOP nomination for Governor have launched against Dunnavant's positions though it appears they appeal to more Henrico voters than President Trump, Del.Freitas and Rep. Brat. Supporters of the GOP should also recognize the appeal that rising start Tina Ramirez may have in suburban Richmond in 2022 than Delegate Freitas or Rep. Brat have delivered. One could also argue that Senator Dunnavant (R) has more appeal to suburban voters as well historically and given the rise of Republican women and success at the polls this cannot be understated.

Suburban Turnout VA-07: 2016/2020----will leave you scratching your head

Chesterfield County:  85,045 (Trump) 65,019 (Trump) -

                                   81,074 (Clinton) 79,783 (Biden) -

Henrico County :       59,857 (Trump)  52,184 (Trump) -

                                   93,935 (Clinton) 80,032 (Biden) -

Trump lost voter support in the following counties from 2016 to 2020:

Chesterfield County 48.22% to 44.07%

Goochland County 59.73% to 58.80%

Spotsylvania County 55.25% to 54.84%

Orange County : 60.93% to 59.91%

Culpeper County: 60.08 to 59.05%

Freitas lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 (Brat) to 2020:

Henrico County 40.12% to 39.18%

Goochland County 59.58%- 58.94%

Spanberger (D) raised voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Chesterfield County: 54.09% to 55.03%

Henrico County : 58.67% to 60.64%

Powhatan County: 28.89% to 29.30%

Goochland County: 39.52% to 40.81%

Orange County: 40.07% to 40.08%

Spanberger (D) lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Amelia County: 32.87% to 32.49%

Louisa County: 40.47% to 39.73%

Spotsylvania County: 44.17% to 43.88%

Culpeper County: 40.68% to 39.98%

Nottoway County- 45.05% to 44.72%

All statistical information and voting metrics in this article come from two primary sources that Virginians can review.

1. https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/President_and_Vice_President_(CD_-_07).html

2. vpap.org/visuals/visual/presidential/

Guest Commentator

Jonathan Scott

Denver Riggleman-- The New Face of the Virginia Center

 In the last two years Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) VA-05 has been one of the most productive servants in the Virginia Congressional Delegation in the House of Representatives in Congress.  Rep. Riggleman and Rep. Rob Wiittman (R) VA-01 have an ability to reach consenus and work in so many bipartisan efforts where they can find common ground  on issues impacting Virginians all across the Commonwealth with Democrats.

Rep. Riggleman is very outspoken on the issues and never shies away from confronting elements in both political parties that he deems on the wrong side of issues or a threat to the founding doctrines of the Republic. This of course makes Riggleman a target for both sides especially on social media who seek to use him as a rock to break their own views against.

There is a great interaction in the movie "Braveheart" where Robert the Bruce is speaking with William Wallace and states :

"If you make enemies on both sides of the border, you will end up dead" and William Wallace responds "We all end up dead; its just a question of how or why"

This is really the story of Rep. Denver Riggleman (R)) venture into the sphere of Virginia politics. The truth is Republicans continue to lsoe in Virginia similarly as the clans of Scotland because the clans would not stand together just like today in Virginia where the warring "clans" or "wings" of the Virginia GOP can't  unite. No more was this more evident than in the VA-05 in 2020. A district that appears to have a large contingent of Never Trumpers than any other GOP controlled Congressional district in Virginia whose allegiance appears more closely aligned with Senator Red Cruz (R).

Riggleman is an outspoken limited government conservative who believes that the individual should be free to engage in the opportunities provided within a free society and a functioning democracy with limited involvement by the government or its powers. At his core Riggleman is a free thinker and could aptly be described as more of a Libertarian Republican than any other elected official in the Virginia Congressional Delegation. Having himself served in the U.S Airforce for fifteen years and the intelligence community as well as operating a small craft distillery business in Virginia. Riggleman worked vigorously to deregulate the distillery industry in Virginia. Furthermore, Riggleman has a firm grasp of the various dynamics that impact both domestic and foreign policy. Even though the outspoken Riggleman has his own voice he still maintained a 93.9% voting record in line with President Trump while serving in Congress. 

While many have taken to social media in recent weeks to attempt to discredit Rep. Denver Riggleman after his loss in his re-election bid during the nomination process last summer it is important to note that Riggleman had the full support of President Trump which did not help him in one of the most pro-Trump Congressional districts in Virginia. After the nomination of Bob Good through some rather nefarious actions in the VA-05 nominating process, Trump of course flipped his position on Riggleman like so often Trump does. Keep in mind, Riggleman had conservative approval rating of about 94% the last two years representing the VA-05. The battle raged in the VA-05 all summer and regarding Riggleman and appears to have nothing to do with policy or votes rather it has to do with the fact many have made it personal based on things that frankly are totally irrelevant or at least should be in the context of performing the duties of office. Trump recent attacks on Riggleman are nothing more than the fact Trump has always had a "winners and losers" mentality. Remember the "Apprentice"?Trump stating that Riggleman lost his re-election bid for not being "Trump enough" is simply not born out by the facts yet none the less Trump is known for jettisoning anyone who moves from his winners consideration to losers and the fact remains Riggleman lost.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/us/politics/denver-riggleman-virginia-primary-bob-good.html

Everyone knows of course "how" Riggleman lost. The VA-05 nominating process in 2019/20 was plagued with corruption. Committee members were taking payouts while they worked behind the scenes to unseat their own Congressman. This is not the role of a district committee in truth and the fact is it very well may ultimately lead to the Republicans losing the seat in Congress to Dr. Cameron Webb (D). The fact remains the committee was successful in removing someone with broader appeal in the general electorate that attracted support from libertarians, moderates, conservatives and even "blue dog" Democrats replacing him with a far right "biblical red" conservative in Bob Good. A candidate that has not denounced the alt right or QAnon going into an election less than two weeks away that appears now to have moved from "solid red" or "safe seat" to now "toss up". 

https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/nonpartisan-cook-political-report-declares-virginias-5th-district-race-a-toss-up/article_eb370edd-96cd-5d79-ab1f-834692b6a367.html

Its ironic that as the Good campaign attempts to attract support from the extreme right of the Virginia GOP, Rep. Denver Riggleman has been working to expose the truth with regard to some of these groups than apparently even President Trump is not fully versed on. Recently, Riggleman introduced bipartisan resolution condemning QAnon in Congress.  QAnon is well known as a movement that promotes unfounded conspiracy theories as truth or fact on social media that began in 2017 that are meant to undermine the public trust Americans have in their democratic institutions.

Rep. Denver Riggleman recently stated that "QAnon and the conspiracy theories it promotes are a danger and a threat that has no place in our country's politics...I condemn this movement and urge all Americans to join me in taking this step to exclude them and other extreme conspiracy theories from the national discourse."

The Combating Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy has stated that "QAnon is arguable no longer simply a fringe conspiracy theory but an ideology that has demonstrated its capacity to radicalize to violence individuals at an alarming speed".

https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-half-of-trump-supporters-believe-q-anons-imaginary-claims-124025042.html

The problem is Riggleman appears alone in his condemnations. Campaigns such as Bob Good for Congress and Amanda Freeman Chase for Governor refuse to condemn QAnon. 

Why is it that Good and Chase refuse to condemn the movement? Recently USA Today reported on a Yahoo! News poll (see above) that half of President Trump's supporters believe in QAnon. The result simply has been a fear in condemning the movement by candidates. Riggleman has never displayed such fear in terms of doing the right thing regardless of the political ramifications. Riggleman is right in his condemnation of QAnon as much as he was right to marry a gay couple in 2019 who asked the Congressman to marry them.

So while Riggleman's bipartisan resolution (H.R. 1154) to condemn QAnon passes the House of Representatives in a 370-180-1 vote. The resolution was joined by Rep. Elaine Luria (D) from the VA-02 as a co-sponsor.

It is very telling that the movement has about as much creditibility as the Russian Collusion hoax and yet candidates like Good and Chase cannot bring themselves to condemn it. It seems while Riggleman has been outspoken against far left and far right conspiracy theories that advance anarchist ideologies and anti-Semitic tropes that encourage domestic violence. I am not alone in questioning why it is both self -professed Christian "biblical red conservatives" Bob Good and Amanda Freeman Chase appear to embrace those elements on the alt right that advance some of the most anti-Semitic views and insight violence that our intelligence community and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)  have stated "very likely motivate some domestic extremists , wholly or in part, to engage in criminal or violent activity".

It really begs the question why many like Good and Chase refuse to condemn such a movement. Do they really believe that the movement is indicative of how most Virginia Republicans think? I did a recent unscientific test and reached out to about two dozen conservatives in the VA-05 and VA-11 Senatorial District that Chase represents that I am connected with on Facebook and ask them how they felt about the QAnon movement. ONLY 3 even remotely knew anything about the movement and could actually speak to its positions. These were people that I respect and know are engaged in Virginia politics. ONLY 3.

Riggleman has tapped into something that is growing especially in Virginia. Many Virginians are reaching their fill on the divisiveness that many like Amanda Freeman Chase are promoting on the campaign trails. Riggleman believes that "the vitriol and anger spewing from both sides of the political aisle, echoing around the darkest corners and caverns of the internet has led to violence and hate, divisiveness and anger". Riggleman has demonstrated and knack for pointing out what we all know to be true but have refused to admit.The extremes of both political parties have hijacked their respective parties and left the middle or centrists to reconsider the binary choice.

If you examine Rep. Denver Riggleman's actual record in Congress it is really hard to just dismiss is effectiveness to lead and to bring people together. Even after losing his re-election bid last summer, Riggleman has continued to roll up his sleeves and stay in the fight for conservatives.

This week supporters of Bob Good took to social media to condemn Riggleman for comments they deemed detrimental to their candidate and insinuated that Riggleman betrayed the GOP by meeting with Dr. Cameron Webb (D) recently but has never publicly supported Good since his nomination. Ironically, these people are the very ones who supported corrupt efforts to unseat Riggleman in the first place and now expect Riggleman to "fall in line". Clearly, these people do not know Denver Riggleman at all. The "fall in line" or "kiss the ring" mindset is not part of the Riggleman DNA. 

Good supporters were upset that Riggleman would actually speak with Dr. Webb who stopped by the Congressman's distillery in the district coupled with the fact that Riggleman stated recently he would be "open" to "considering" any candidate.  Many would likely find this dispute as petty however it is actually really indicative of the problem that the Virginia GOP faces with the selection of candidates that have been nominated in many areas of Virginia. To those like Good and Chase and their supporters "principled" means nothing more than agreeing with them.

What has a "principled conservative" become in Virginia? Is it Ted Cruz (R)? Is it President Trump? Does the Virginia GOP even know anymore? The more supporters of Good and Chase flex the more the tent shrinks and the issue of QAnon and the alt right is simply one more example of this. The very fact that many Republicans cannot publicly rebuke or condemn these movements is every bit as telling as the lefts inability to condemn Antifa. 

Senator Chase is a prime example of this bipolar approach and hypocrisy. Chase continually has condemned Antifa but refuses to condemn QAnon and embraces the alt right fringe of the party and while supporters of Good and Chase rail against Riggleman for speaking with Dr. Webb they are silent on the fact that Chase herself met with Black Lives Matter/Antifa supporters in July in Richmond. So it seems appropriate for Chase to speak with designated domestic terror groups but not appropriate for Riggleman to speak with a candidate running for Congress from the Democratic Party who happens to be an actual constituent.

Much of what we have seen in 2020 regarding these movements and the rhetoric on the campaign trail and the fact that right now the Virginia GOP faces even further decline in representation on the Congressional Delegation after next months election will create a vacuum in the center of the Virginia political spectrum that Rep. Denver Riggleman is aptly able to fill in 2021.

Riggleman is currently weighing his options come January when his term expires. There is little doubt that Riggleman will continue his honorable service to the nation and may return to the intelligence community or potentially run for Governor of Virginia in 2021. It safe to say that whatever Riggleman decides to pursue he will remain unwavered in his commitment to his values in support of our Commonwealth, the Constitution and the Republic.

Many believe that the election next month may send the Virginia GOP into an even greater tailspin than the elections of 2019. The extreme far right has lost the Virginia center. With each passing Facebook post on pages of candidates like Amanda Freeman Chase the middle is further lost. The "center" is something Chase has portrayed for eight months as "liberal Republican" or "Democrat light" totally ignoring or even attempting to speak to these Virginians who are fiscal conservatives believing in limited government, lower taxes, equal justice, equal opportunities and have little appetite for social issues. While the center may not participate heavily in conventions or local committees it does in fact come to the polls in force.

Rep. Denver Riggleman whether intentional or not is speaking right now to the Virginia center. The center understands that Republicans can still win the Virginia Executive with the right candidates not unlike Gov. Larry Hogan(R) who has won two consecutive terms in highly liberal Maryland while all statewide Republican candidates have lost in Virginia since 2013. The chances for victory double in truth if Vice President upsets President Trump as Virginia historically moves counter to the holder of the White House.

The more the far right extremists use Rep. Denver Riggleman as a rock to break their own QAnon and alt right divisiveness against the more that the Virginia GOP loses even more ground and provides the opportunity for a sea change in the Virginia political universe in 2021. Again the "clans" are divided and have yet to identity someone they can all unite behind.

No Republican can win Virginia statewide without the support of the Virginia center comprised of libertarians, moderates and independents and yet as 2021 gets closer and closer the more these voters are alienated by the far right movements that embrace xenophobic, homophobic, anti-Semitc and anti- government rhetoric.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott

Is the GOP in Trouble in VA-07?: Henrico County

 

Any analysis of a particular race in Virginia these days often triggers many defense mechanisms. For too long these defense mechanisms have created a situation of denial for the Virginia GOP in which there has been little acknowledgement or change in the party messaging given the changing demographics on the ground in many localities in Virginia.

An objective analysis here based not only historical voting trends, demographics, metrics but also conversations with voters on the ground in Henrico County going into next months Congressional contest in the VA-07.

The VA-07 is an historically a very conservative district in Virginia currently represented by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) elected in 2018 during to so-called "blue wave" election that was the first Congressional cycle following the election of President Trump in 2016.

The Virginia GOP is seeking to unseat Rep. Spanberger and nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) late summer to challenge her via a nominating convention. Freitas was nominated after three rounds of ballots at the convention held in Doswell, Virginia.

I respect Delegate Nick Freitas and find him to be an outstanding Delegate from Culpeper County who is in my opinion one of the best orators on the floor of the Virginia House of Delegates. While Freitas ran in 2018 for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and lost to Corey Stewart (R), I hope that the result of this election does not negatively impact the future of this rising star in the Virginia GOP. Elections always can offer surprises however this cycle is probably one of the most divisive in Virginia history since the Presidential Election of 1860.

Often it is inevitable that "down ballot" candidates can be at the mercy of the Presidential race. One recent factor with independent voters is the takeaway from the first and possibly only Presidential debate last week that many perceived as the worst in debate history.

The coming 2020 Census will certainly reveal even more changes in demographics that have occurred in the last decade in Henrico County, however what is obvious to any political analyst is the the trends on the ground in suburban areas have shifted from supporting Republicans in Virginia overwhelmingly a decade ago to now supporting Democrats in Presidential, Congressional and statewide races for the Virginia Executive.

The Virginia Seventh Congressional District offers us insight into this shift given two of the largest suburban localities in Virginia comprise the majority of voters in the district. Both Chesterfield County and Henrico County were once Republican strongholds in Virginia election history. The latter no longer can be considered a Republican stronghold given the shift in the last decade and the former may shift left as well in the coming cycle.

Understand this. 

Henrico County will determine the winner of the Congressional race in 2020 for the VA-07.

No examination of the race for the VA-07 Congressional seat can ignore what has happened in Henrico County over the last few years politically. Henrico County truly illustrates the ground that the Virginia GOP has lost in suburbia. Many pundits on the right would likely disagree but the voting metrics reveal a very distinct transformation in voting behavior in suburbs the more the Virginia GOP takes extreme positions on social issues and federal immigration policies.  The messaging remains mixed and the perception is that the Virginia GOP does not support immigrants even though the intent was to address "illegal" immigrants. Candidates like Corey Stewart and State Senator Amanda Chase have alienated many immigrants according to many residents in the VA-07.

What has contributed to this shift in voting trends?

The biggest factor is clearly the demographic change that Henrico with roughly 330,000 residents has experienced over the last decade. 

One of the changes is that there are now more women living in Henrico now representing 52%+ of the population. A population now has a growing non-white population where the Blacks represent 30%, Asians 10% and Hispanics now 7%. This constitutes an estimated 47% of the population in Henrico.

The GOP nationally is facing declines in support from women and immigrant groups. Some political analysts and firms that track such polling data have estimated that the GOP is now -34% with women and -19% with immigrant populations. Whether one agrees with such analysis or not the metrics of this are playing out at the polls and is demonstrated in the correlation in the decline of Republican support in Henrico in the last few election cycles.

Henrico by any estimation is an affluent locality. 18% of population has a post graduate degree and 52% of the population as at least some college or a college degree. These metrics represent 10% higher than the Virginia averages.

Another relevant factor in 2020 is the rising 16% of the population that is 65+. This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP and the Nick Freitas campaign because national polling is demonstrating that President Trump is losing support of seniors dramatically compared to 2016. 

One of the biggest metrics now in Henrico in terms of elections is the fact that 13.5% of the population is now "foreign born". This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP on the coat tails of the Corey Stewart 2018 campaign for U.S. Senate and the current campaign for the GOP nomination for Governor by Amanda Freeman Chase for 2021. The GOP has steadily lost support in the immigrant community since 2013 after earning a large share of it in 2009.  The majority of immigrants coming to Henrico are from Asia (55%) and Latin America (23%) followed by Europe (12%) and Africa (9%). There appears little outreach efforts thus far from the Republican Party of Virginia this cycle to appeal to the immigrant communities throughout Virginia.

The factor that appears to have not drawn virtually any messaging from the GOP and specifically the Nick Freitas campaign is that the majority of new business start-ups have come from women and "foreign born" Virginians in Henrico. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis has directly impacted many of these business yet there appears to be very little mention of how President Trump's actions have supported the business communities whether lower corporate taxes or stimulus provisions to support small business. Rep. Spanberger has leveraged thus far the actions of Congress in terms of the first stimulus to her own ends in touting support for small business.

An example of the Spanberger pitch:

"For 2 years, I’ve worked to be a strong voice in Congress on the issues that impact people’s daily lives in #VA07. -Lowering the cost of prescription drugs -Expanding broadband internet access -Recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic"

Freitas is a Army veteran and 6.3% of the Henrico population are veterans with the overwhelming majority having served in Vietnam and the Gulf War 1990's. Recent polling has demonstrated weaker support from veterans in 2020 for Trump than in 2016 and this should be a real concern as well for the Freitas campaign. Rep. Scott Taylor is experiencing the same dynamic in his challenge for his old seat in the VA-02 comprising the Virginia Beach region.

The median income for residents of Henrico is roughly 68,000. This is a factor that should play well for the Freitas campaign however there has been very little messaging regarding the Trump tax cuts thus far from the campaign that certainly benefited a majority of residents living in Henrico. Instead the majority of the messaging thus far has targeted Rep. Abigail Spanberger's (D) voting record in Congress the last two years and her alignment with some of the most liberal in the House of Representatives.

What is interesting is the continued attempted links to Speaker of House Pelosi and the Spanberger voting record and the assertion that Spanberger is not as "moderate" or "blue dog" as she campaigns compared to when she is voting in Washington appears to be an extension of similar messaging that failed Rep. David Brat (R) in 2018. Spanberger in truth does not appear to have a very "moderate" record at all however the message does not appear to resonate with many voters in the manner in which it is asserted.

Thus far the approach appears to be a strategy set on "voting against" Spanberger as opposed to "voting for" Nick Freitas. The issue with this approach in talking with voters in Henrico  is that while the Presidential election very well may be a "referendum" election on Trump, many voters do not see this Congressional election in the VA-07 as a "referendum" on Spanberger. Spanberger like Freitas is very lpersonable nd likeable figure when you speak with people whom have met both of them

I recently had the opportunity to speak with some voters from Henrico where my wife lived for a time and what is rather interesting is the amount of split voting that may occur next month among independent voters that thus far is not showing up in any polling. It is estimated that roughly 14% of voters nationally are independent voters and these voters are often less concerned with "policy" per say as many other voters. They are not partisans by any means and many have voted for Democrats as many times as Republicans. Many for example supported Trump in 2016 yet supported Democrats in 2017 for Delegates representing Henrico in the Virginia General Assembly. These very seats have all flipped the last decade to the Democrats in the county.

What has to be  (or should be) alarming to the Virginia GOP is the steep decline in support for Republican candidates in Henrico County.

Out of a population of 330,000 some 105,000 voters turned out in 2018 at the polls in the last Congressional race for the VA-07. Spanberger won Henrico County 60.96% to 36.89% over Rep. David Brat (R).

In 2016 Rep. David Brat had won the county with 50.77% of the vote but came in -14% cycle over cycle. There are some reasons of course in examining the decline in support for the GOP candidates  however not one more meaningful than redistricting. The GOP used to have the support of Hanover County precincts to the tune of 70% in the years that Rep. Eric Cantor (R) held the seat when the GOP dominated the VA-07 at the polls.

In statewide races Henrico shifted from support of statewide and national Republicans to Democratic candidates where it once supported the likes of Bob McDonnell (R) for Governor in 2009 but by 2013 had started to shift to the left at the polls. Governor Terry McAuliffe decimated Republicans in 2013 with an astounding 51.2% to 38% over Ken Cuccinelli. Subsequent candidates from the GOP have met similar fate though Brat did win in an off cycle election in 2014 with 55% of the vote. 

If we examine Rep. David Brat's performance in VA-07 after defeating Rep.Eric Cantor (R) in an historic primary with the support of the Tea Party the movement quickly fizzled out and was reabsorbed back into into the GOP much to the dismay of many within it. Thus from 2014 where Brat earned 55%  in Henrico he declined to 50.77% in 2016 and ultimately 36.89%. Overall throughout the VA-07 in 2018 Brat earned 48.40%  some 12 points better than he performed in Henrico.

What is interesting when speaking to Henrico County voters when one canvasses or speaks to residents is that there is still support for some local Republicans. State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant withheld a challenge in 2019 by Delegate Debra Rodman (D) who she defeated 50.76% to 49.06%. Much of this can be attributed to the Hanover precincts that remain in the VA-12 Senate District that no longer are part of the VA-07 Congressional. 

Dunnavant outperformed both President Trump and Rep. David Brat in heavily "red" precincts and many of them by four to six basis points.

Lets examine a few precincts that will impact the 2020 Congressional race for the GOP:

103: Glen Allen

2012 : 61.95 (Cantor) 2016 : 60.38 (Brat) 2016:  49% Trump 2018:  48.57 (Brat) 2019:  Dunnavant 54.37

302: Cedarfield

2012: 64% (Cantor)  2016: 62% (Brat)   2016: 50% (Trump)  2018: 51% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 57%

403: Derbyshire

2012: 69% (Cantor)   2016: 66% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 55% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 60%

417: Tuckahoe

2012: 72% (Cantor)   2016: 69% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 56% (Brat)  2019  Dunnavant  65%

These are heavily conservative leaning precincts and illustrate that even among these districts there have been shifts metrics wise over last decade.

Some other races to consider: Henrico supported the following-

Hillary Clinton (D) 2016- 57%

Governor Ralph Northam (D) 2017 52%

U.S Senator Tim Kaine (D) 2018 57%

Now worth consideration for supporters of the Virginia GOP to consider is that the two Republican candidates that have outperformed all other GOP candidates are:

State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R)  2019 50.76%

Jill Vogel (Lt. Governor Candidate) 2017 50%

Republicans must overcome the denial of the trends on the ground in suburbia that Henrico illustrate. The two women representing the GOP on ballots in Henrico County recently are the very two Republicans that the State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase wing of the party ( Cuccinelli, Stewart, Brat) have railed against and attempted to label as "Liberal Republicans" or  "Establishment" yet it appears these State Senators appeal to voters and know how to appeal to voters via dedicated messaging that speaks to families in the suburbs. Another is Lt. Governor Bill Bolling from Hanover that pulled in 56.29% of the vote across Virginia in 2009 and has become a target of the Chase campaign in recent weeks rehashing the 2013 race in which Bolling withdrew and AG Ken Cuccinelli supported by Chase won the nomination and ultimately lost to Governor Terry McAuliffe (D).

Given the trends on the ground and the historical metrics, the Virginia GOP and Delegate Nick Freitas appear in real trouble even in the wake of over reach by the Virginia State Legislature in the last year and an aggressive GOTV effort for GOP supporters.

I anticipate the following results next month in the VA-07 UNLESS messaging changes in the next three weeks----for example have yet to see a single Spanish ad this cycle or heard one on the radio thus far from Freitas ( if anyone has please comment below so I may locate it). 6% of the population speaks Spanish as primary language in the home in Henrico and there is a significant rising population in Spotsylvania and Chesterfield Counties. This something that Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) used effectively in 2009 yet the consultant trend in the GOP is to not spend in this area it seems the last few cycles. A correlation can be drawn directly to this lack of focus to the declining trend in Hispanic support for Virginia GOP statewide and Congressional candidates.

Important to note: 

2016 Trump won VA-07 51.14% to 43.30%

Amelia County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Chesterfield County: (113,000 voters) Spanberger

Culpeper County: (20,000 voters) Freitas

Goochland County: (13,000 voters) Freitas

Henrico County:(105,000 voters) Spanberger

Louisa County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Nottoway County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Orange County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Powhatan County; (18,000 voters) Freitas

Spotsylvania County: (38,000 voters) Freitas 

I expect Delegate Nick Freitas to win every rural locality in the VA-07 which all lean Conservative however I expect Rep. Abigail Spanberger to win re-election because she will will hold serve in both Henrico County and Chesterfield County she won in 2018. Spanberger easily wins Henrico County however Chesterfield while very tight race in 2016 between Trump and Clinton with Trump only winning the historically conservative Chesterfield by less than 1% supported Spanberger two years later in 2018 by 10 points.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott

State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (I): "We Are In an All-Out War"

 

On Saturday August 15, 2020 State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase the Republican Senator turned Independent according to the latest update of the Virginia Senate on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_of_Virginia ) continued her campaign tour of western Virginia  where Chase participated in the "Back the Blue" event in Salem.

The event was sponsored locally by Veterans Event Management Inc. and drew a hundred or so Virginians in the rain to march in support of law enforcement. The event did not come without some protest however from a small group of people demanding police reforms. The Progressive Anti-Racist Action marched at times alongside the "Back the Blue" marchers through parts of downtown Salem.

Many critics of Senator Chase have attacked her for her disingenuous nature when it comes to law enforcement, especially in her home county of Chesterfield in suburban Richmond, Virginia. Chase has had repeated run-ins politically with Chesterfield County Police and the Chesterfield County Sheriff as well as even Capital Police in Richmond.

Senator Chase was removed from her local political committee the Chesterfield County Republican Committee after she refused to follow the Republican Party Plan and support a Republican nominee which comes with it a four year ban from committee activities. Chase's refusal to support Karl Leonard who ultimately won election as Sheriff of Chesterfield County resulted in serious controversy for the Senator given such months before the Senator was involved in misrepresenting an encounter with Capitol Police at the State Capitol over Chase taking liberty with a parking spot that was unauthorized for her use. Chase asserted one story regarding the incident that was never substantiated and was found to have berated a police officer she claimed she had not once a video surfaced. This came after Chase was reported to have used Capital Police for unauthorized chaffuering whereby she was using state property for her own personal benefit.

https://richmond.com/news/local/government-politics/updated-with-video-police-sen-amanda-chase-berated-officer-who-wouldnt-let-her-park-in/article_56f46cdc-44a0-5379-bda1-e5879e3f34fe.html

The Republican leadership embarrassed by the actions of State Senator Chase issues a statement of support for the Capitol Police.

https://richmond.com/news/local/government-politics/gop-leaders-send-support-to-capitol-police-following-report-of-sen-chases-altercation/article_e3913e83-e8b0-56df-aabc-346c9b14827c.html

Furthermore, Senator Chase just last month stepped into a similar issue with Chesterfield County Police when she claimed to have been informed by its Chief that ANTIFA that was participating in protests in Richmond for weeks were planning to cross the James River into Chesterfield and riot and loot residences.

“I actually spoke with Chesterfield Police Chief [Jeffrey] Katz, and just wanted to make aware to you all what is actually coming to Richmond,” said Chase. “First of all, it is conclusive that Antifa has been in the Richmond area. They are now going into, this evening, the greater Richmond area neighborhoods. I know that Chesterfield County where I live is one of those targets.”

https://www.chesterfieldobserver.com/articles/police-chief-says-he-wasnt-source-of-sen-chases-antifa-warning/

Chase just last month failed to appear at her own county event to support law enforcement called "Go Blue Day" on July 25 and Chase failed to make any mention of the event on her official page offering any support.

The Senator has been very vocal with her opposition to the protesting efforts in the Richmond the last few months that have resulted in the removal of statues and monuments along historic Monument Avenue. Chase claimed "there is an all out attack on folks that are white" relating to the protesting. Chase would later claim that "they" were "going after white history" on a radio show with John Fredericks.

Then on Saturday in Salem at the American Legion State Senator Chase openly states to those in attendance that "We are in an all-out war" today. Was Chase referring to "Republicans" or "white people"? So much of the rhetoric lately from Chase has come along the same racial lines as previous statewide candidate Corey Stewart that the campaign appears to almost mirror Stewart's failed Senate bid in 2018.

None of this appears to have been too convincing for most Republicans in Virginia. The thought of Chase threatening to run as an independent if there is not a primary has not sat well with many in the party. The likelihood is that the Republican Party of Virginia will declare a convention method to select the candidates in 2021 to represent the party and Chase appears to be positioning herself for the opportunity to claim it was done to keep her from winning. Its a rather interesting political strategy however everything Chase has done in recent weeks suggests she is preparing for a convention as she is courting local committees that typically end up as delegates at the statewide convention. Chase supported and participated as a delegate in the nominating convention for the Virginia Seventh Congressional District and made her participation very visible on site and on social media.  In fact, some have even claimed that Chase attempted to steal the limelight as she worked the delegates not only on behalf of Delegate Nick Freitas but also herself.

Freitas would win the nomination on the third ballot and Chase was heard claiming to deliver Chesterfield County to Freitas in the election this Fall as Freitas squares off against Democratic incumbent Abigail Spanberger. While it might seem rather insignificant of a claim given the historical dominance of the GOP in Chesterfield, the county has moved closer towards the center than at any time in the last thirty years. Spanberger won Chesterfield County just two years ago by 10 points over Rep. David Brat (R) whom Senator Chase has long ties with and supported.

The Chase campaign still appears to be a campaign that is trying to find its messaging. The current messaging is not resonating with voters in Virginia if you consider Senator Chase trails in fundraising and has not even come close to raising even half what prior candidates have in the first quarters of statewide bids while potential challengers have raised close to one million or more. This is a huge concern as the Republican Party now appears poised ready to launch other candidates into the nomination process.

Well respected former State Senator Bill Carrico and Delegate Kirk Cox are expected to enter the race come October/November and some consider Rep. Denver Riggleman a potential to enter after losing his primary seeking re-election in the Virginia Fifth Congressional. Another one many are keeping an eye on is Virginia businessman Pete Synder.

Political Survival in 2021: Redistricting at the Gates

 

During the 2020 General Assembly session in March, the Democratic majority passed the legislation addressing the means of which statewide redistricting will be determined. Redistricting has traditionally been a product of the State Legislature every ten years following the Census Report that evaluates the distribution  and changes of population. Not only is this significant to the legislature but also the level of representation a state will send as a delegation to the House of Representatives in Congress.

Virginia currently has an 11 member Congressional Delegation. There is not data thus far to support that following the 2020 Census that that number will change. Virginia currently has 8.5 million residents  The 2010 Census reported a population of 8,001,024 Virginians. Other states like New York , California, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania for example are predicted to actually lose at least one seat in Congress due to population changes while Texas and Florida are poised to gain one. This is important politically for both parties.

In Virginia however, the immediate impact will be redistricting existing districts both relating to the Legislature and Congress.

The power to "gerrymander" is an old game and one played by both parties historically. Gerrymandering refers to the manner in which the majority draws new lines of districts to benefit them politically. If you examine some of these districts they are hardly uniform. They are drawn less on basis of the population of a geographic area and more by using the historical voting metrics of local precincts. The majority always claims such redraws are done to address disenfranchisement however that appears less the case when you examine the history of them. It is more a matter of political metrics given various pockets of areas. This is easily illustrated in the manner in which all these districts appear simply by examining them in map form.

The Democratic majority largely flip flopped from 2018 to 2020 on the issue of removing the legislative redistricting and placing it in the hands of an independent (more or less) commission. Democrats supported a commission while in the minority yet after the 2019 election cycle that saw Democrats take control of both chambers of government in the legislature changed their position. During the 2020 legislative session only nine Democrats supported the amendment joining 45 Republicans in the House of Delegates. After championing the commission in previous years, the Virginia Black Caucus appeared to do a complete about face on the issue claiming that a commission would suppress black political power. 

The previous year during the 2019 General Assembly Session that exact same bill passed 83-15 in the House of Delegates with support of majority of the Black Caucus. So what changed? What changed was a power shift in government and the securing of the "trifecta" of controlling both chambers in the Capitol and the Executive led by Governor Ralph Northam (D).

For Virginians what is clearly on display here is a lesson in Politics 101.  Democrats once securing power no longer wanted Virginians themselves to play a role in determining how redistricting would take place and under whose direction. They did so only when they were out of power.

The amendment to the Virginia State Constitution calls for a sixteen member bipartisan commission of which eight would still remain state legislators comprising members of both chambers as well as eight citizens. If the commission ever were to be unable to decide on an plan than ultimately the Virginia Supreme Court would decide the outcome. This is something opponents to the measure like Del. Mark Levine (D) highlighted last year in his opposition given the court in his view is overwhelming stacked with conservative appointed judges.

Virginia Democrats for years have crafted messaging that the courts are not to be trusted. One could argue that Democrats have attacked every major institution in Virginia in truth. The recent protesting and riots seem to illustrate this point. If the judicial system can not be trusted to remain objective in this process than who would the Democrats suggest have that power? Well, their legislative majority of course.

Will voters support the amendment referendum in November? Many suspect that Virginia will support this measure. There have been many groups and organizations like One Virginia 2021 that have been strong advocates for the measure.

Redistricting itself will happen one way or another. The Republicans face the fact that many of its stronger districts especially in the Senate very well may get redrawn, especially many of those that have been staunch supporters of President Trump. 

One such Senate district is the Virginia 11th. Long a solid "red" district in Chesterfield County, Virginia and represented by potential gubernatorial candidate State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase has experienced a massive shift that has largely gone unreported by the media. Not unlike other districts in Chesterfield where the strength of the GOP brand is declining.

If the change in voting metrics is examined over the course of the last decade or so the shift is massive. The Virginia Senate hold elections every four years. Here are the winning percentage in the Virginia 11th since 2003.

2003- 97.27 (Steve Martin)

2007- 62.41 (Steve Martin)

2011- 94.7% (Steve Martin)

2015- 63.74% (Amanda Chase) -Chase defeated Martin in primary than won General

2019- 54.51% (Amanda Chase)

The most alarming metric in the voting data is that Senator Chase won in 2015 with a 27 point margin in 2015 and four years later saw that margin decline 18 points to +9 winning with 54.51%.

Many have speculated that this data is one of the major factors that Senator Chase has declared her candidacy to run for Governor in 2021. There were rumors Chase would seek the GOP nomination in the Virginia Congressional District but declined to run given that the district determined to hold a "convention method" over a primary. Chase has stated she knows the district (VA7) better than anyone given her participation on the Rep. David Brat (R) campaign who defeated Rep.Eric Cantor (R) in a primary and ultimately went to Congress. Brat would lose his re-election bid in 2018. 

The changing demographics of the Virginia 11th, especially in the Chesterfield portion of the district are moving away from the the base that Chase has held. While the county is still lead by a Republican Board of Supervisors, the board and the local Republican committee do not appear to support Senator Chase any longer. This poses a real challenge for Chase in 2023. The metrics are going the opposite direction just as the GOP has witnessed in the Virginia 10th adjacent to the Virginia 11th that the GOP lost in 2019.

Chase is one politician to watch over the course of the coming year. Chase has stated she would run as an independent if she did not secure the GOP nomination but the real thing to watch for is Chase has always had any eye on Congress. If Delegate Nick Freitas (R) nominated last month to represent the GOP on the ballot this November in the Virginia 7th Congressional District does not defeat Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) do not be shocked if Chase transitions to a 2022 Congressional bid unless of course Chase herself become victim to any  redistricting that may occur.

Is Virginia Rising or Falling?: Can Republicans Find A Way Back

The blame game is alive and well in Virginia. It was only a matter of time for blaming to go mainstream given the Republican Party of Virginia appears in complete disarray following the November elections last Fall.

The Virginia GOP has been in a virtual tailspin for over a decade now. Some would argue even a freefall. Virginia has been turning "bluer" in the last decade not unlike the very same occurrance experienced in Maryland over a decade ago. Only difference is Maryland has elected a Republican Governor the last two election cycles whereas Virginia has failed to elected a Republican Governor since 2009.

Isn't it time Republicans all across the Commonwealth begin to address why that is? How is it liberal leaning states like Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire have elected Republican Governors and Virginia has been unable to since 2009?

A decade is a lifetime in politics. The Democratic Party of Virginia successfully managed to capture and leverage social media in its opposition to Virginia Republicans. The Virginia GOP failed to invest appropriately in the infrastructure required and rested on the fact that Virginia had supported Republicans for decades. The Virginia GOP became convinced it could weather any storm when it won the Governorship in 2009 the year after President Obama was elected in 2008.

Yet how many outside the political historian community has examined how that 2009 victory came to be? How was the messaging so different and appeal so broad that Governor Bob McDonnell earned almost 59% at the polls? And how subsequent candidates have earned on average 10-12 points less than McDonnell at the polls?

It really comes down to outcomes and lessons. The lessons of the last decade are in plain sight but far to many continue to blame others instead of examining the truth.

Virginia has a knack for going against the national election trends. 2013 was one of the cycles in which Virginia elected a Democratic Governor while there was a sitting Democratic President. Typically voters in Virginia elect the opposite party from the one in the White House. Many see it as a hedge but it proves just how broad the "middle" truly is in Virginia and how it is the real force that determines victory in Virginia and not the extremes.

Have Republicans stopped talking to independents and moderate centrists who care very little for legislating morality? It appears so.

Any political scientist will tell you that Virginia is a solid "blue" state based on statewide elections. That however does not mean of course that Virginia is not still a mostly "conservative" state in large portions of the Commonwealth. The issue facing Virginia Republicans is an inability to win in  suburban Virginia where population has exploded the last decade.

The election of President Obama in 2008 brought sweeping changes to the ground game for Virginia Democrats. Democrats made inroads into the suburban communities that were long held by Republicans. New voter registrations and an appeal to suburban families has continued with the overwhelming political movement centered around healthcare. Republicans on the federal level managed to cede healthcare to the Democrats even when many aspects of the Democratic initiatives mirrored former Republican positions. The result was devastating to the Republican Party of Virginia.

The eelction results demonstrate that following the election of President Obama, the majority of statewide races have been won in Virginia by Democrats securing over fifty percent of the vote. Some will argue that the election of 2013 was the real turning point given it broke the trend of electing the opposite party into the Virginia Executive than the controlling party of the White House. Historically speaking the Virginia Republicans should have won the election in 2013 and some have argued that had that occurred than in all likelihood most of the elections that followed would have been influenced to the advantage of Republicans.

Victory however alluded Virginia Republicans in 2013 and many political pundits blamed the third party candidate Robert Sarvis (L) who earned 6.52%  or Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (R) for the Demcoratic victory. This however is very simplistic at its core as the real issue that drove the election of 2013 away from the grasp of Republicans was the very fact that many fiscal and libertarian conservatives reject the social conservativism that is very prevalent on the far right within the Republican Party of Virginia. This coupled with the fallout between Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli sealed the Republican fate in 2013. Bolling to this day is villified by many social conservatives and even now in 2020 was recently targeted by the campaign manager of State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase(R) running for Governor in 2021 in a clear attempt to re-open old wounds to advance the campaign's own agenda.

State Senator Chase was a staunch supporter of Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli in  2013 before moving on to supporting Representative David Brat (R) in the 7th Congressional District campaign and later would challenge State Senator Steve Martin (R) of the Virginia 11th in a primary.  Chase has made a reputation for herself as being loose with the facts and quick with the blame when its comes to political posturing.

Recently, Senator Chase claimed on facebook that Govenror Ralph Northam (D) was vacationing during the pandemic crisis in Manteo, NC. Chase in yet another clear attempt at a "gotcha moment" informed her followers that she had been provided evidence from law enforcement as to Northam's travels and stays in North Carolina. Chase never managed to provide any such evidence and many have clamored on social media that the evidence Chase alluded to never actually existed. Chase routinely uses her offcial page as a platform for conspiracy theories and misleading information regarding matters pertaining to Northam or the pandemic. Chase emersed herself and her followers in the two month long "Recall Northam" saga that never materialized. The media characterized the effort as yet another one of the various political stunts orchestrated by Chase to elevate her profile outside her district.

Chase called on all Virginians to join her in Richmond on May 6, 2020 to "Re-Open Virginia" and stated that Governor Ralph Northam (D) had "overstepped his authority by imposing restrictions" yet refused to elaborate specifically how the Governor has overstepped or violated the trust of Virginians in executing the duties of his office with regard to public safety. One thing is clear however and that is Chase has apparently done a complete one eighty with regard to mask wearing in Virginia.

Chase seen here at her "Re-Open Virginia " rally in Richmond earlier this month wears a mask and gloves yet just weeks later fails to wear a mask nor follows the social distancing mandate of remaining six feet apart while participating in a subsequent event called the "Great American Tailgate". A week or so later Chase was condemed Governor Northam for not wearing masks while visiting Virginia Beach. At the time of course there was no mandatory mask order in place. The mask mandate actually goes into effect today May 29, 2020. Chase deemed it appropriate to wear mask and gloves early in May but clearly has since changed her position given her lack of any masks, gloves or social distancing in Petersburg while attending an organized event.

Recent polling by Virginia Commonwealth University reveals that the majority (76%)of Virginians polled believe Northam has done an effective job managing the crisis in Virginia as reported by the Daily Progress here:
https://www.dailyprogress.com/news/state/vcu-poll-76-of-virginians-approve-of-northams-response-to-pandemic/article_9e5a0ec8-b8e3-571f-8686-c68dbc24650b.html

This is not a very good sign for Senator Chase or the Republican Party of Virginia should it chose to nominate Chase next year. Chase has repeatedly challenged just about every thing Northam has enacted in response to the crisis. The majority of suburban families are following the mandates prescribed not only by Northam but by the CDC while it is apparent that Chase is leading the charge in opposing such efforts. The question remains why did Chase flip flop on masks and social distancing? Chase determined to wear masks and gloves just weeks ago and now has shifted her position and ignored both masks and social distancing. So the question remains is this simply yet another "stunt" by Chase given Northam has now mandated mask wearing. Chase wore the masks before they were "mandated" but now refuses to wear them because they are now "mandated" by Northam appears to be the message.

State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) with Tim Anderson taking part in the "Great American Tailgate" held in Petersburg, Va.

State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) in Olde Town Petersburg

The Republican Party of Virginia leadership has largely remained quiet during the crisis however it has released statements from time to time expressing its position regarding measures that Northam has enacted. That being said the simple fact is Senator Chase has attempted to take the oxygen away from fellow Republicans by pressing forward with what appears to be very divisive positions for the suburbs and suburban women especially. This should raise alarm bells for all Virginia Republicans.

While many in the Republican Party of Virginia have recognized the shift underway in Virginia there are still those like Chase and her social conservative right that fail to grasp that Virginia no longer is the Virginia of the 1990's and the demographics have shifted. The suburban and urban areas are less attracted to the very issues that leaders like Chase are advocating especially when it comes to opposing equal justice  and equal rights for all Virginians regardless of religious beliefs, national origin, identity, gender, race, creed etc. Many voters see Chase as nothing more than an extension of the 1990's wrapped up in a "morality police"  platform where public policies should be determined by religious convictions---Christian-only convictions that are more closely associated with Pentecostalism or evangelical positions than the belief sytems of the majority of Virginians.

So while many see the Republican opposition in Virginia as in a state of "RISING" there are those who also see the future of the Republican Party of Virginia  "FALLING" further into the minority. In 2019 the Republicans lost control of the Virginia General Assembly after refusing to hold Governor Northam accountable for his "blackface" scandal while the Virginia GOP controlled the majority. No hearings and no investigations into the matter were ever undertaken. One could argue the merits of the political calculations made to not pursue any inquiry but the result ultimately was a sound defeat in November at the polls.

The Virginia GOP has a real opportunity in 2020-21 should it decide to embrace it. Republicans must determine to stop nominating unelectable candidates statewide and rebuild the trust it once had with suburban voters. It will not be successful in enagement efforts if it choses to continue to repeat the same mistakes of the past and deny the ground that is before them. The Virginia GOP must work in coordination to recruit and listen to Virginians seeking less morality messaging and more family-centric, education, healthcare, lower taxes and ecomomic messaging.

These results depict the net result of poor focus and messaging in Virginia by Republicans:

2008-Obama (D) 53%

2008 Sen. Mark Warner (D) 65%

2009 Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) 59% Bolling (52%) Cuccinelli (57%)  

2012- Obama (D) 51%

2012- Sen. Tim Kaine (D)- 53%

2013- Gov. McAuliffe (D) 48%  Northam ( 55%) Herring (50%)

2014- Sen. Mark Warner (D) 49%

2016- Hillary Clinton (D) 50%

2017- Gov. Ralph Northam (D) 54%  Fairfax (53%)  Herring (53%)

2018- Senator Tim Kaine (D) 57%

2019- Loss of the majority in Virginia House of Delegates

2019- Loss of the majority in Virginia Senate

Whether Virginia is indeed "RISING" or "Falling" will continue to play out over the next election cycle. Some have pointed to some local success for Republicans this month as promising but many of those local elections were very small turnout results in the middle of the pandemic.

For Virginia Republicans have any real success moving forward,  the Virginia GOP must evolve and reshape its messaging or accept the fact that it will remain solely a "principled minority" for years to come.

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