New "Back The Blue" PAC Launched in Virginia: Delegate Jason Miyares (R)

 

As a direct result of the Virginia Progressive wing of the Democratic Party of Virginia assault on law enforcement in the name of "social justice", Delegate Jason Miyares (VA-82) who represents the former seat held by State Senator Bill Desteph (R) in Virginia Beach City has formed the Back The Blue PAC. Miyares won re-election in 2019 by almost 20% in a year when Virginia Democrats took majority in the House of Delegates.

Website: www.backtheblueva.com

The Virginia Democrats appear to have handed the Republican a gift for 2021 with its unreasonable assault on law enforcement which could only be described as anti-community. 

On the Chris Saxman radio cast "Virginia Free" which airs daily on Facebook and on the radio, Delegate Miyares communicated the goals set for the Back The Blue PAC and supporting those candidates in 2021 and beyond that support law enforcement and common sense reforms not what the Virginia Democrats have introduced.

Miyares stated some questions her has asked constituents regarding the proposals advanced and supported by Governor Northam.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/october/headline-861097-en.html?fbclid=IwAR1JjCiRAvTe1v0tPP7vwzjBkFPv9cpcyKcj8eVVjM2XQG4bwVDb3RsR2I0

A few of Miyares questions:

"Do you feel more safe ending the mandatory reporting requirement of sexual violence in schools to law enforcement?"

"Do you feel more safe with release of violent offenders?"

"Do you feel more safe with assaults on police as misdemeanors not felonies?"

"Do you feel more safe with Parole Board letting out those sentenced to life in prison without parole?"

Other areas also raised is the Virginia Democrats desire to END mandatory minimums for sentencing. This is one thing that should shock all Virginians. These minimums apply to all Virginians equally without regard to race, sex, creed, religion, gender or sexual orientation. If fact these minimum sentencing guidelines promote EQUAL JUSTICE under the law for offenders. These sentencing guidelines are fixed and do not take into account ones wealth, status or even whether they can hire a high priced lawyer.

The Virginia Democrats are clearly placing SOCIAL JUSTICE over EQUAL JUSTICE.

Virginia College and University Bailout: Democratic Base Camp

As the news fills with all the issues that localities are facing with regard to virtual learning and no "in-person" schooling for the elementary, middle and high schools all across the Commonwealth and the lack of adequate preparedness by the Northam administration, the political focus has shifted to colleges and universities in Richmond.

The question is why? 

Everyone understands the value of Virginia's colleges and universities, however the skyrocketing premiums paid for tuition in higher education has been unsustainable for quite some time burdening Virginia families and students with continued student loan debt without any relief in truth for twenty years. 

Virginia colleges and universities have been able to raise tuition and fees at will the past few decades so much that students today are being charged sometimes seven to ten times as much as their parents just two or three decades ago while the education lobbies have sought to prevent any alternative models in Richmond.

The college and university model in truth has never been afforded much competition. The lobbyists and politicians in Richmond have seen to that. For years other states have dedicated resources to distance learning at the college level and many well known universities have implemented massive online global campus programs to meet the needs of those seeking a degree or certificate in specific areas of study.

There is not one Virginia college or university known nationally for a distance learning program for adults, veterans or college bound students. In fact, about a decade ago there was push back from colleges and universities to keep such programs from even coming into existence in Virginia meanwhile place like the University Maryland Global Campus just across the Potomac River in Maryland now has over 85,000 students enrolled 100% online. Other states have similar programs. One such program is University of Texas El Paso- UTEP Connect which offers online programs targeting veterans as well as working families and students alike.

The question remains why Virginia with an estimated 750,000 veteran population has never determined to provide the resources for such programs at the state level to keep many of these veterans enrolled in Virginia instead of having to enroll outside the Commonwealth.

The pandemic has created much concern on campus however one of the real concerns that many are not addressing in truth is the fact that colleges and universities while dealing publicly with the Covid-19 situation and all the mandates are privately extremely concerned that the pandemic has now shown Virginia families that the four year college on campus "experience" may not offer the best method in terms of quality and affordability. For decades there has failed to exist true alternative for families other than the Virginia Community College System which has never been given its due with regard to the quality of education students receive. In fact, it was community colleges that were the first to implement limited distance learning programs for working adults years ago.

Now Virginia families are seeing that virtual learning or distance learning could have many benefits for college age students given it afford the opportunity for students to work while in college and stay at home if necessary and avoid campus living expenses and still receive a degree from the college or university. This creates a ton of fear at colleges and universities. No one wants to admit it but fact remains these colleges and universities are run like business entities that are subsidized by all tax payers. 

So much attention is paid to elementary and secondary education that very little every gets discussed regarding how much the Commonwealth actually pays to support colleges and universities. In 2019 Democrats campaigned on raising the level of funding for public school systems some 1 billion a year to meet the needs of schools. In order to do so where is that funding going to come from in the state budget? Why is education getting funded in the manner it is while roads , bridges and infrastructure go unaddressed? Its very simple. Roads do not vote.

Instead you see Virginia Democrats setting the table to implement measures like use of "internet sales taxes"dedicated to education. This should remind everyone of the promises made regarding proceeds from the Virginia Lottery. Democrats are very skilled at identifying areas of opportunities that must be addressed however never seem to figure out how to actually pay for them without having to raise taxes or create new taxes.

In the 2020 General Assembly Session, Virginians got real insight into the political priorities of the new majority in Richmond. In an effort to raise teacher salaries driven by the Virginia Education Association (VEA) the state would implement a college and university tuition freeze however than offset the impact of the freeze on colleges and universities by also providing them additional funding directly from the state. In effect the state shifted the funding from families paying any increases in tuition to providing colleges and universities the funding directly from tax payers (all) to compensate for any deficeit the freeze may have created. In essence a clever bailout.

In essence, college and universities would not have to cut expenses or implement wide spread structural changes to operations or how they conduct business due to the freeze in tuition. Of course many would claim that is a very simplistic observation but true nonetheless. Here is an example of how budgets simply move things around as a result of the "tuition freeze":

"Old Dominion gets another $2.8 million next year to increase need-based financial aid to undergraduate and graduate students, a 7.7% increase. Norfolk State University will get another $816,000 for financial aid, a 3.7% increase. The budget also grants the university $548,000 a year for its new Center for African American Policy.

Christopher Newport University will get $125,000 next year to increase need-based financial aid by 1.2%. The College of William and Mary will get another $146,000 next year for needs-based financial aid for undergraduate and graduate students, a 0.3% increase.

As their share of the tuition freeze funds, ODU would receive $3.2 million; CNU, $2.8 million; NSU, $1 million;and William and Mary, $900,000." (The Virginian Pilot)

Has the college model really changed all that much? It is basically the same model most parents experienced in college in terms of structure and form. The credit hour model and requirements are relatively unchanged just like the "four year' model approach however one thing that has changed has been the interjection of more and more "political" influence upon basic courses in humanities. Campuses have become incubators for both progressive and socialistic theory at the expense of conservatism. The political forces in Richmond understand this and understand that the college campus is a driver for the social and political movements that are the underpinnings of the Democratic Party. Liberal and Progressive educators now far surpass Conservative on campus and many argue that it has never been harder for a conservative educator to get tenure than today.

What we are seeing now with families and more engagement in learning and the overall education process and that scares the education industrial complex. A complex that has created a business model that is so insulated from any economic reality that families or society ever face whether recession, depression or even times of war. Yet the one thing that they could not have predicted was the impact of the Covid-19 virus and how it would create more awareness from parents in terms of the options they face with regard to education now.

The politicians are now faced with the fact that the virus may create a situation where less and less students begin to enroll in college. This would in effect blow up the model that has been created. Parents today are asking themselves for the first time whether or not it really is of value anymore to send children to college campus of the education they can receive online or virtually is equal or even better and at substantial savings.

Why would the state have to continue to increase financial aid funding if less and less students enroll? Why is the state having to increase the funding in the first place? Is it due to the fact that tuition has ballooned out of control? Why are colleges and universities  funded with state tax dollars not required to reduce operational expenses on their end and totally restructure in order to compete? Does not every college and university in Virginia whether public or private compete for each year's school enrollment? Is not the Commonwealth picking favorites in its budgets when it provides some schools with aid and others no aid. What is the model used to determine which schools get the aid? 

In the real business world we are seeing closures as a result of the pandemic of 2020. Are we seeing a school closures? Is not what we are talking about today in Richmond nothing more than a "bailout" for colleges and universities unprepared for the impact of pandemic? Governor Ralph Northam and the Democrats have yet to offer a single plan regarding the economic recovery of business development and jobs in Virginia during the month long "Special Session" and yet seeks to advance the following:

"Governor Ralph Northam today announced a higher education refinancing plan that will save Virginia’s public colleges and universities more than $300 million over the next two years. The Commonwealth of Virginia will take advantage of low interest rates by refinancing bonds issued by the Treasury Board of Virginia (TBV) and the Virginia College Building Authority (VCBA), which institutions of higher education use for capital projects. The Governor was joined by George Mason University President Dr. Gregory Washington and state legislators for the announcement at the university’s Fairfax campus.

“The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have tremendous impacts on higher education, including the fiscal health of our colleges and universities,” said Governor Northam. “Families all over the country are taking advantage of record low interest rates to refinance their home mortgages, and we want our public institutions to benefit as well. Refinancing will free up millions of dollars in savings allowing our colleges and universities to make critical investments, meet the needs of Virginia students, and continue offering a world-class education.”

Virginia has successfully avoided cuts to higher education during the pandemic. The Commonwealth has worked hard to maintain its valued AAA bond rating, which has allowed the state to be eligible for these favorable interest rates.

“Our public higher education institutions are critical to Virginia’s success, and we know they are hurting right now,” said Senate Finance Committee Chairwoman Janet Howell. “Allowing them to refinance some of their debt is an innovative way to save money when they need it most, and I look forward to supporting the legislative portion of this proposal next session.”

Many Virginia colleges and universities have seen a decline in revenue traditionally used for bond payments. These institutions are also navigating uncertainty regarding in-person learning, with many unsure when or how students will return to campus. Under the Governor’s plan, institutions will make no principal payments on their VCBA bonds through fiscal year 2023. The proposed restructuring would also extend institutions’ payment plans for two years beyond their current schedule, for both VCBA and TBV bonds.

“As stewards of the Commonwealth’s finances, we are always seeking creative solutions to financial issues,” said House Appropriations Committee Chairman Luke Torian. “Helping public colleges and universities restructure their debt obligations allows them to focus their resources on the pressing needs they face right now as a result of the pandemic.”

As part of his plan, Governor Northam will work with the General Assembly to allow additional flexibility for higher education refinancing during the 2021 General Assembly session.

“Governor Northam is committed to supporting Virginia’s institutions of higher education,” said Secretary of Finance Aubrey Layne. “These savings will make a tremendous difference for our colleges and universities as they navigate these challenging times.” (Office of the Governor)

Colleges and Universities are vital to the economy however there is no argument that the educational industrial complex is vital to the Democratic Party of Virginia politically and it is clear that Democrats seek to allocate more and more funding in this area without any real strings with regard to operational changes that would reduce tuition on Virginia families.

Democrats see very little need to demand such structural and operational changes to the education industrial complex as it simply plans to use more and more tax dollars generated on the backs of Virginians to fund more and more financial aid funding for Virginia colleges and universities requiring every Virginian to pay more at the end of the day whether a family has a student enrolled in college or not.

At some point does the Virginia Legislature not have to take into account the massive endowments that many colleges and universities in Virginia are sitting on or does it simply keep ignoring that fact and continue to "bailout" one of the largest business enterprises in the Commonwealth of Virginia in the education industrial complex.

Lets get back to putting Virginia families and students FIRST! Not an educational industrial complex that fails to put the needs of students first.

Guest Commentator, Jonathan Scott

September 25, 2020

Virginia Assembly: Day 3 Virginia Senate Update

 

The Virginia Legislature "Special Session" day is underway and the Virginia Senate meeting at the Science Museum of Virginia on West Broad Street in Richmond is taking up various bills today coming from the Senate Education and Health Committee.

         

The Senate has determined to combine three bills (S.B.  5026, 5150, 5081) into one bill that has passed unanimously. These bills address that matter in which the public is informed with regard to outbreaks, location, cases and deaths resulting from said outbreak.

The Senate has also advanced S.B 5004 calling for every school building in the Commonwealth to have a School Nurse on site. This bill while passing was referred back to Finance Committee.

One bill that appears stalled is the bill relating to the prevention of evictions during the pandemic.  The Senate has put off this bill until next session in January. Virginia experienced a 16% rent failure rate in the month of July. It is believed that some 262,000 Virginians are "at risk" for evictions due to the pandemic.

Other measures under consideration:

SB5116-  In Home service verification by Department of Medical Assistance; electronic verification system

SB5114- Requires each School Board to make available in person instruction to each enrolled student when an area is determined not to have adequate internet services

SB5109- Provides that employees and residents of nursing homes receive priority testing for Covid-19

SB5064- Employer reporting of Covid-19 for each workplace with 30+ employees to health services

SB5028- Emergency Services and Disaster Law- Prohibits any Governor from issue any rule, regulation or under under his powers under Emergency Services that affects the operation of any public or private elementary or secondary school in Virginia. Bill also makes it so the State Board of Health cannot issue such order either.

SB5076- Paid Sick Leave during Covid-19 crisis from public and private employers for full or part time employees if the Governor has declared a state of emergency in response to health threat.  (FAILED)

Political Survival in 2021: Redistricting at the Gates

 

During the 2020 General Assembly session in March, the Democratic majority passed the legislation addressing the means of which statewide redistricting will be determined. Redistricting has traditionally been a product of the State Legislature every ten years following the Census Report that evaluates the distribution  and changes of population. Not only is this significant to the legislature but also the level of representation a state will send as a delegation to the House of Representatives in Congress.

Virginia currently has an 11 member Congressional Delegation. There is not data thus far to support that following the 2020 Census that that number will change. Virginia currently has 8.5 million residents  The 2010 Census reported a population of 8,001,024 Virginians. Other states like New York , California, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania for example are predicted to actually lose at least one seat in Congress due to population changes while Texas and Florida are poised to gain one. This is important politically for both parties.

In Virginia however, the immediate impact will be redistricting existing districts both relating to the Legislature and Congress.

The power to "gerrymander" is an old game and one played by both parties historically. Gerrymandering refers to the manner in which the majority draws new lines of districts to benefit them politically. If you examine some of these districts they are hardly uniform. They are drawn less on basis of the population of a geographic area and more by using the historical voting metrics of local precincts. The majority always claims such redraws are done to address disenfranchisement however that appears less the case when you examine the history of them. It is more a matter of political metrics given various pockets of areas. This is easily illustrated in the manner in which all these districts appear simply by examining them in map form.

The Democratic majority largely flip flopped from 2018 to 2020 on the issue of removing the legislative redistricting and placing it in the hands of an independent (more or less) commission. Democrats supported a commission while in the minority yet after the 2019 election cycle that saw Democrats take control of both chambers of government in the legislature changed their position. During the 2020 legislative session only nine Democrats supported the amendment joining 45 Republicans in the House of Delegates. After championing the commission in previous years, the Virginia Black Caucus appeared to do a complete about face on the issue claiming that a commission would suppress black political power. 

The previous year during the 2019 General Assembly Session that exact same bill passed 83-15 in the House of Delegates with support of majority of the Black Caucus. So what changed? What changed was a power shift in government and the securing of the "trifecta" of controlling both chambers in the Capitol and the Executive led by Governor Ralph Northam (D).

For Virginians what is clearly on display here is a lesson in Politics 101.  Democrats once securing power no longer wanted Virginians themselves to play a role in determining how redistricting would take place and under whose direction. They did so only when they were out of power.

The amendment to the Virginia State Constitution calls for a sixteen member bipartisan commission of which eight would still remain state legislators comprising members of both chambers as well as eight citizens. If the commission ever were to be unable to decide on an plan than ultimately the Virginia Supreme Court would decide the outcome. This is something opponents to the measure like Del. Mark Levine (D) highlighted last year in his opposition given the court in his view is overwhelming stacked with conservative appointed judges.

Virginia Democrats for years have crafted messaging that the courts are not to be trusted. One could argue that Democrats have attacked every major institution in Virginia in truth. The recent protesting and riots seem to illustrate this point. If the judicial system can not be trusted to remain objective in this process than who would the Democrats suggest have that power? Well, their legislative majority of course.

Will voters support the amendment referendum in November? Many suspect that Virginia will support this measure. There have been many groups and organizations like One Virginia 2021 that have been strong advocates for the measure.

Redistricting itself will happen one way or another. The Republicans face the fact that many of its stronger districts especially in the Senate very well may get redrawn, especially many of those that have been staunch supporters of President Trump. 

One such Senate district is the Virginia 11th. Long a solid "red" district in Chesterfield County, Virginia and represented by potential gubernatorial candidate State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase has experienced a massive shift that has largely gone unreported by the media. Not unlike other districts in Chesterfield where the strength of the GOP brand is declining.

If the change in voting metrics is examined over the course of the last decade or so the shift is massive. The Virginia Senate hold elections every four years. Here are the winning percentage in the Virginia 11th since 2003.

2003- 97.27 (Steve Martin)

2007- 62.41 (Steve Martin)

2011- 94.7% (Steve Martin)

2015- 63.74% (Amanda Chase) -Chase defeated Martin in primary than won General

2019- 54.51% (Amanda Chase)

The most alarming metric in the voting data is that Senator Chase won in 2015 with a 27 point margin in 2015 and four years later saw that margin decline 18 points to +9 winning with 54.51%.

Many have speculated that this data is one of the major factors that Senator Chase has declared her candidacy to run for Governor in 2021. There were rumors Chase would seek the GOP nomination in the Virginia Congressional District but declined to run given that the district determined to hold a "convention method" over a primary. Chase has stated she knows the district (VA7) better than anyone given her participation on the Rep. David Brat (R) campaign who defeated Rep.Eric Cantor (R) in a primary and ultimately went to Congress. Brat would lose his re-election bid in 2018. 

The changing demographics of the Virginia 11th, especially in the Chesterfield portion of the district are moving away from the the base that Chase has held. While the county is still lead by a Republican Board of Supervisors, the board and the local Republican committee do not appear to support Senator Chase any longer. This poses a real challenge for Chase in 2023. The metrics are going the opposite direction just as the GOP has witnessed in the Virginia 10th adjacent to the Virginia 11th that the GOP lost in 2019.

Chase is one politician to watch over the course of the coming year. Chase has stated she would run as an independent if she did not secure the GOP nomination but the real thing to watch for is Chase has always had any eye on Congress. If Delegate Nick Freitas (R) nominated last month to represent the GOP on the ballot this November in the Virginia 7th Congressional District does not defeat Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) do not be shocked if Chase transitions to a 2022 Congressional bid unless of course Chase herself become victim to any  redistricting that may occur.

Has Time Come to Amend the Virginia Constitution For Equal Representation in Richmond?

                                                          

Jonathan Scott

Guest Contributor

Is it any wonder many counties in the Commonwealth of Virginia are frustrated with the level of representation in Richmond?

Are Virginians represented equally in Richmond in the Virginia General Assembly today as they have been throughout Virginia history? Given the increasing Virginia population, what is a good ratio of official to constituent for the purposes of representation?

Would not amending the Virginia Constitution and increasing the number of Delegates and Senators provide for greater representation?

The time has come to address the rising population of the Commonwealth and stop disenfranchising the vote in truth by limiting the number of officials sitting in the General Assembly.

The Assembly will send an amendment referedum to  the Virginia Constitution regarding redistricting but what it really should be doing to addressing the Articles that determine how many seats there can be in the Assembly in the first place.

By increasing the number of districts to be represented in the Assembly, the ratio of the number of Virginians represented per official would be lowered thus providing greater representation to the population.

A big issue facing Virginia today is a dominance by one single Virginia region in terms of representation in large part due to the population density of Northern Virginia which has just recently provided dominating control of the Legislature by one Party over that of another due its control over that region politically.

Fairfax County, Virginia for example has a population of 1.1 million. Fairfax has three different Democrat Congressional Representatives with precincts within the county and (9) State Senators and (17) State Delegates representing constituents in the General Assembly residing in the County.

The General Assembly has 100 Delegates and 40 Senators as determined by the State Constitution.  This translates to a political reality that Fairfax County influence controls 17% of the House of Delegates and  22% of the Senate.

Not a single seat held in the Virginia Assembly from Fairfax is a Republican official. Every Assembly seat including the Speaker of the House of Delegates position and three Congressional Districts are held by Democrats. In essence 1,1 million Virginians dominate the political influence over a Commonwealth with 8.5 million in terms of seats, influence and power.

In fact, Fairfax is so partisan that in 2019  (6) races for the State Senate did not even have a Republican or Independent on the ballot. In 2015 there were (2) such races with no Republican or Independent.

In effect, Fairfax controls (9) Senate votes. Are there Republicans and Independents residing in Fairfax County? Sure. However, the way the districts are configured you would not know it. For example District 39 had 20,757 Republican voters and both District 32 and 33 both had about 18,000  but the manner in which the precincts and district has been drawn it hardly provides for real representation.

In fact, examine the fact that in District 36 Democrat Scott Surovell won with 37, 518 votes yet Republican incumbent Glen Sturtevant in District 10 comprising Richmond and portions of Chesterfield and Powhatan earned 37,737 and lost. Over 80,000 votes were cast in the 10th District.

Only 37,518 votes were cast in the 36th District for the Virginia Senate. That compared with over 80,000 voters casting ballots in District 10, 11 and 12 all including the suburbs of Richmond.

This fact alone demonstrates the fault that exists in the current district allocations and how they are drawn. Instead of drawing these districts is such a manner to benefit those actually drawing them would it not make more sense long term to amend the State Constitution and add seats.

While adding seats could certainly address better representation in Richmond, it is also important to address the size of districts and the number of voters casting ballots so Virginia is not left with such disparity as illustrated by District 36 and Districts 10, 11, and 12.

Did the Virginians who enacted the Virginia Constitution on June 29, 1776 ever envision such a development. By 1790 Virginia had a population of 747,610 amassing even greater geographical territory then given it was not until the Wheeling Convention of 1861 that the western areas of Virginia  broke and sought the formation of present day West Virginia. Even back then the Assembly would be comprised of the same number of Assembly officials as today.

Virginia population 1900 was 1.85 million and had 100 Delegates and 40 Senators in the Virginia General Assembly. Virginia's population in 2019 was 8.54 million and it appears to continue the trend of growth moving forward and yet today's session in Richmond has the same number of Delegates and Senators as it did in 1900.

While Virginia may have been more unified culturally in 1900 than today it is critical to consider just how different today the various regions of the Commonwealth are in truth. One such debate today is over gun control. A majority of counties throughout the Commonwealth have enacted 2A Gun Sanctuary Resolutions top protect citizens against the extreme legislation  being enacted by Virginia Democrats in Richmond.

Having so many seats in the Assembly from the populous Northern Virginia certainly aligns with the Constitution but as population grows all that will happen is Virginia will have districts with more and more citizens. The State Constitution constrains the Assembly ability do nothing more than re draw and re draw district lines regardless of the population  growth Virginia experiences.

It is clear the solution is to amend the State Constitution and increase representation. This is not something the political establishment will do however without the people demanding it. Citizens will have demand equal representation just as Virginians did during the Revolutionary period of Virginia history. Politicians will not surrender the power that the current system creates, especially those politicians in the Progressive region of Northern Virginia.

So what is the biggest issue to reaching equality of representation?

Understand that are Maryland justa cross the Potomac has less population than Virginia yet has more State Senators and Delegates representing its citizens than Virginia. Maryland has 6 million citizens and 47 State Senators for example. Delaware has less than one million people yet has 21 State Senators. Virginia is approaching 9 million citizens and has just 40 State Senators.

The State Constitution of Virginia determines the exact number of seats in the General Assembly.

State Constitution of Virginia Article IV Sections 2 and 3:

Section 2. Senate.

The Senate shall consist of not more than forty and not less than thirty-three members, who shall be elected quadrennially by the voters of the several senatorial districts on the Tuesday succeeding the first Monday in November.

Section 3. House of Delegates.

The House of Delegates shall consist of not more than one hundred and not less than ninety members, who shall be elected biennially by the voters of the several house districts on the Tuesday succeeding the first Monday in November

These sections of the State Constitution are what should be revised and amended. The number should be increased to reflect more representation with seats having a maximum population density that each official shall serve.

Should the Assembly in Richmond not address the disparity that exists it will not  be able to prevent some counties from considering offers made by West Virginia to join that state and leave the Commonwealth.

The sizes of various districts vary in terms of population and voting participants. 

Follow TCS on Social Media:

https://www.facebook.com/TurnVARedAgain/

The 2020 Virginia GOP: Opportunities Lost?

There is a growing divide brewing within the Republican Party of Virginia in 2020.

Leaders  within the party continue to fight as much with one another as it does with the opposition. The Virginia Democrats have taken advantage of the lack of unified messaging from the Virginia Republicans and are creating a formidable wall of defense with regard to all the seats that it won the last three years at the Virginia Executive and Congressional levels.

Supporters of the Republican Party of Virginia have a hard time fully understanding what is happening to a party that once dominated Virginia politics and surrendered the majority in the General Assembly in 2019. The Democrats have continued to capitalize on the fractured atmosphere that exists with the Republican leadership over how after twenty plus years of control must now find a way to become a unified "opposition party" in Richmond. The Democrats no longer require the Republicans to pass the legislation they seek to advance and odds today are in 2021 they will sweep the Virginia Executive  for the third cycle in a row transforming Virginia with each new session of the Assembly.

It does not help that State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (I-R) the lone "Republican" candidate declared for the GOP nomination for the Virginia Governor's race in 2021 was uninvited by the Northern Virginia Chamber to speak at an event citing inappropriate comments. This is one of the largest conservative organizations in the the largest region in all of the Commonwealth of Virginia.

The divide that is growing within  Virginia Republicans is being fueled by those that lack any vision of the future or how to actually win statewide races by creating messaging that resonates with voters all across the Commonwealth of Virginia. One perfect example of  success is easily recognized across the Potomac River with the election of Republican Governor Larry Hogan in Maryland. Virginia is looking more and more like Maryland with every passing election as Democrats secure stronger footholds in newly drawn districts just as Maryland Democrats did almost a decade ago. Hogan was able to defeat the Democrats twice in a state that is by far more liberal than Virginia on balance and he did so with a clear, concise message of working together to address the needs of all. In Virginia, you have a significant element that will not tolerate any compromise with Democrats and unfortunately for them they will never win a statewide race even if they happen to secure enough votes to win primaries or conventions to nominate candidates who fail to have a broader vision outside the echo chambers of small groups within the party.

Virginia just witnessed the "echo chamber effect" within two conventions held this summer. Conventions are no longer the preferred method of nominee selection by the majority of Republican voters in Virginia yet many district committees continue to push conventions upon the people. For example, in the Virginia 7th in 2018 some three hundred and fifty thousand Virginians voted in the election that saw incumbent David Brat (R) upset by Abigail Spanberger (D) by two points and yet this summer  5,100 delegates would converge on Meadow Event Park in Doswell, VA to select a Republican challenger. Almost one hundred and seventy thousand voted in support of Brat in 2018 and of that number a mere 5,100 would determine who the Republicans would nominate for challenge Rep. Spanberger in November.

Similar to the Virginia 5th Congressional Convention weeks prior, the Virginia 7th would not be without the fireworks that always seem to happen when thousands of Republicans come together. The reason for this is simple. The Republican Party of Virginia is not some myopic association that many perceive it to be as it is comprised of many elements that form its coalition.  The most vocal of its elements is rarely the majority within the coalition and far too often it is the religious Republicans typically known as "social conservatives" that dominate conventions yet rarely ever dominate primaries.

The saying goes in Virginia that Republicans  nominate "lambs" via conventions and nominate "challengers" via primaries.

This summer the district committees once again remained true to form. While nominating those candidates that one very specific element in the coalition that dominates committees wishes to nominate over candidates that actually could appeal to a broader electorate in the general they will continue the downward cycle of losses the Republicans have suffered for a decade.

No two examples better illustrate this than the Virginia 5th and Virginia 7th in 2020. The district committee in the VA05 were so determined to unseat the libertarian minded incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman that they sought to interview and court a half dozen potential challengers before settling on Bob Good of Campbell County and then used the fact that Riggleman officiated a gay wedding as a wedge issue with the religious element to oust him. This convention speaks to the cancer that exists in the convention process where an incumbent endorsed by President Trump is abandoned over a "social" issue and his 90% conservative voting record in Congress ignored.

The Virginia 7th Convention took three rounds to settle on Delegate Nick Freitas  whose support was overwhelmingly from the same elements that supported Good along with State Senator Amanda Chase (I-R) an independent Republican seeking the nomination in 2021 to run for Governor. Chase is widely known as David Brat acolyte paired with a Corey Stewart style platform that endorsed Freitas and attacked his opponents repeatedly during the process. Freitas was clearly happy to have the Chase endorsement and her presence on convention day campaigning on his behalf during the later rounds of the convention to sway delegates yet never placed the Chase endorsement on his official campaign page going into the convention.

Senator Chase has clearly been electioneering for quite some time since leaving the GOP Caucus in the Virginia Senate. Chase had been a supporter of Rep. Denver Riggleman in 2018 yet failed to support him in 2020 or even make any statements regarding his campaign once she determined to run for Governor. Many in the political universe saw this fact as a move to secure the donations from the district committee forces that represent the more "social conservative" elements of the party. Furthermore, Chase demonstrated her utter inexperience in statewide campaigning by attacking Delegate John McGuire in her efforts to support Freitas. McGuire has won elections and has dedicated supporters in areas of the Commonwealth that Chase would require in any successful statewide run. Chase has targeted McGuire along with State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (VA-12) both of which whom have conservative support in the liberal county of Henrico County.

It is worth noting that Rep. Spanberger (D) won Henrico County in 2018 by 18 points over Rep. David Brat (R) and won over fifty precincts with an overall twenty thousand vote margin in Henrico that more than offset any gains that Brat secured in the rural areas. Brat performed poorly in suburban Richmond having lost both major suburban localities outside Richmond which are vastly more populated than the other areas of the Virginia 7th. It has also been lost during the nomination process that the VA07 no longer has the advantage of the historical 70-30% conservative districts of Hanover County once part of the VA07 that helped Brat in previous cycles that now are part of the VA01. (Rep. Rob Wittman-R).

The loss of the Republican voters in Hanover County places greater significance on winning a larger portion of the Henrico and Chesterfield County electorate. Brat lost Chesterfield County in 2018 by 10 points and by some ten thousand votes. Chesterfield like Henrico has seen a shift to the left in voting metrics over the last decade. This appears totally lost on the Virginia 7th convention nominating process and Chase herself.

Former Rep. David Brat, State Senator Chase, Delegate Nick Freitas

There remains a determined effort to neglect the historical shifts and trends and continue nominating the same candidates in truth over and over expecting a different outcome. Chase is as guilty of this as any as she continues to push campaign narratives that have failed for a decade. Delegate Nick Freitas has the endorsements of Chase, David Brat and Sen. Ted Cruz  none of which will deliver any votes from moderates or centrists of either party in the VA07. In truth, these endorsements and the nomination of Freitas play right into the hand of Spanberger whose campaign reportedly was hoping for a Freitas nomination. On balance, Frietas has a good record in the General Assembly and has considerable support in the 2A community but little more than David Brat in 2018 in truth. McGuire and Tina Ramirez had considerably more support from conservatives in the suburban areas that will determine the winner in the VA07 come November. The assumption is these voters will simply get behind Freitas.

The Senator Chase claim that she can help deliver Chesterfield to Freitas would be a considerable feat given her most recent election. In the VA11 Senate District where Chase has won two elections  has seen her support erode over five years. After winning the primary over Sen. Steve Martin and winning in the pro-Trump 11th by 27 points in 2015, Chase sought re-election in 2019. Chase defeated Amanda Pohl last November but only won by 9 points compared to 27 points in 2015.  The 11th is experiencing a political shift like many other areas of Chesterfield as more younger families move into the county seeking better educational prospects for their children. Chase does not appeal to younger families and especially to younger women which went for her opponent in 2019.

Chase refuses to admit let alone address in her campaign messaging that her colleague in the Virginia Senate  Siobhan Dunnavant is a reflection of what Chase's own district is becoming and Chase would be wise to heed the lessons of the VA12 and how Dunnavant  won in such a competitive district. Chase calls Dunnavant and other Senators like Jill Vogel "liberal" or "democrat light" simply because they have understood how to win in changing and challenging districts. Leaders who understand that you cannot win elections alienating a third of the population through divisive rhetoric.  Chase's recent facebook posts regarding drivers licenses for non citizens or illegal aliens in the Commonwealth is perfect example. Over seventy percent of voters in Northern Virginia support such action for many reasons. For one thing, getting into an accident with a driver with no identification or license provides many troublesome issues for Virginians. Chase also rejects the notion that "illegal aliens" should receive in state tuition even if the family has lived in Virginia for over a decade or more, pay taxes and clearly have residency in Virginia. Most universities and college have requirements in place regarding residency outside of "citizenship". These are just two recent issues that Chase is on the wrong side of most Virginians, especially in the areas of the Commonwealth required to win any statewide office.

Senator Chase in her recent attacks on State Senator Jill Vogel (R) in her supporters groups was simply a warning shot to Vogel from Chase that was nothing more than passive aggressive bullying. Chase fails to understand that Senator Vogel even though losing to Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax in 2017 earned 1.2 million votes or 47%. In comparison if other elections are examined there is something very telling regarding why it is Vogel earned that result. In the same 2017 cycle, Ed Gillespie earned 44%, Adams 46% and the year before Trump earned just 44% while in 2018 Corey Stewart earned just 41% in Virginia.

If Vogel is a so-called "liberal" as Chase has asserted, what does it say concerning how she has had the greatest appeal of any statewide conservative candidate since former Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and Governor Bob McDonnell in 2009? Why do candidates like Chase, Freitas and Good fail to comprehend how in 2009 Republican messaging resonated with voters resulting in the last statewide sweep for the Republicans? How is it that the victories of Governor Larry Hogan in Maryland are ignored as well? Do these candidate think that the majority of Virginians wish to go back and not forward? Do they believe that Virginians wish to re-argue gay marriage and social issues all over? Do they some how believe that the electorate has not shifted in Virginia since 2014?

It appears as though all three of these candidates are running the same kind of campaign that was launched numerous times and failed in Virginia. Chase in fact has the most inexperienced campaign staff of any potential statewide candidate that comes to mind and at times it appears as though Chase is running her own campaign and thus far is proving why it is not an easy thing to navigate in Virginia no matter how sure of yourself one is. While Freitas has done an outstanding job at raising money for his Congressional bid, Good and Chase are floundering. This has much to do with the messaging and lack of support for the majority of the Republicans.

Bob Good (R) in the VA05 has raised around 260,000 in comparison to Rep. Denver Riggleman whom has raised five times that number before being defeated at the convention. Good's opponent Cameron Webb (D) has raised 1.3 million. Senator Chase announced she raised 200,000 in the first quarter of her campaign  as the only Republican declared candidate. However, Chase's opponents have all stormed out of gate and are raising money at a much faster pace than Chase. Chase continues her attempts to convince Republicans outperforming Democrats. Chase  proclaimed "I'm beating the
Democrats" Yet the reality is the first quarter reporting for Chase has been a disaster in creating confidence in her ability to raise money.


Chase has over 120,000 "followers" on her facebook page which translates to barely over $1 per follower donated in the first quarter. This means that Chase has not connected with large donor classes in truth and recently has taken a beating on social media for taking contributions from the very progressive Clean Virginia Fund whose backers are known supporters of pro-abortion and anti-gun organizations. A stark contradiction to Chase's public persona yet when pressed is rumored to have stated she would accept money from anyone. Hardly what many conservatives want to hear from someone professing to not be a traditional "politician".

Delegate Jennifer Foy (D) has just over 7,000 followers on facebook. State Senator McClellan (D) has less than 7,000 followers and consider these numbers in the context of the overall fundraising below. It is clear that Chase is convinced that "Likes" and "Followers" are meaningful coupled with "small donors" as if campaigns are run like nothing more than the equivalent of you tubers or instagram metrics. Chase is hardly "beating" anyone!

Delegate Jennifer Foy (D) and State Senator Jennifer McClellan(D) both announced months after Senator Chase in a crowded field of Democrats likely to run for Governor including Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and potentially Attorney General Mark Herring. Foy raised $785, 910 in just six weeks and McClellan raised  $410,992 far outpacing Chase yet none of them compare to the 1.2 million raised by former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) who has not even formally declared. These are the Democrats that Chase claims she is "beating".

Some will argue that Democrats raising more money may be expected however this does not explain how the Chase campaign is trailing results turned in by former statewide Republican candidates like Gillespie or Cuccinelli. Furthermore , Daniel Gade (R) running for U.S Senate and a newcomer to Virginia politics has raised almost one million since declaring. There could be some impacting issues like Congressional races or even donations to President Trump for November. Thus, a critical quarter for Chase will be the reporting period following the Presidential election in November.

Delegate Freitas raised the most in the run up to the Virginia 7th Convention and has raised over 2 million. This equates to half as much as Rep. Abigail Spanberger has raised however Spanberger is outperforming Freitas in the suburban fundraising effort. The shortened period between the convention and the election benefits Spanberger and the continued divisions with the party have not healed even though leaders defeated during the convention have offered support for Nick Freitas.  These gestures have not stemmed the anger that still remains with the manner in which the convention was undertaken and the fact that many see Freitas as an illegitimate candidate due the fact that he failed to file properly and within the deadline. This was the second time Republicans have had to reconcile the inability of the Freitas campaign to file its paperwork on time let alone the concern over the delegate allocation approved. The later resulted in contested votes cast at the convention from other candidates.

The results of both the Virginia 5th and 7th hardly left the majority of Republicans with the feeling that their voice was actually being heard via the convention. Republicans understand they are now faced with the potential of losing a seat in Congress in the VA05 as a result of the convention gaming and corruption that resulted on the district committee where members were actually compensated by the Bob Good campaign disclosed in his financial reporting. While not nearly as extreme, many believed that the VA07 convention was gamed to support Freitas coupled with the push back by other GOP leaders against Delegate John McGuire whose challenges to Freitas were largely never answered by Freitas himself but by surrogates like Senator Chase and Bryce Reeves. Both signed a letter just days before the convention in support of Freitas by basically calling Delegate John McGuire out for "dirty" tactics.

The Virginia GOP has had an opportunity this summer to redefine itself. Unfortunately, what has transpired has taken the Republican Party further away from the core belief systems that actually unite the coalition. The majority of campaign messaging thus far has been directed at the smaller elements or hard line base fringes than the greater electorate who is observing the manner in which these candidates are conducting themselves out on the campaign trail and who they are speaking to. Candidates like Senator Chase have thrown the old Republican value of not speaking ill towards other Republican out the window all together summer. Chase has directed much of her attention and fiery toward the Republican Party and Governor Northam neither of which will be on the ballot come November 2021. The attacks launched against fellow Republicans seems to be an attempt to dissuade any other Republicans from entering the race against her or a means of elevating her "fighter" mentality no matter how misguided or misdirected in an attempts to mirror President Trump.

The issue Chase may have is what happens should Trump lose Virginia this November and Republicans lose VA05 and fail to take back the VA07? Will Republicans finally see that this messaging is a flawed approach in 2020-21 to winning in Virginia? Will Republicans see this as an opportunity to acknowledge that Virginia has shifted to the center on many issues and no longer wish to re-legislate the "settled issues" of the past any longer and seek to address healthcare, education, limited government, reduction in size of government, reduction in taxation and respect for the individual and the freedoms and liberty outlined in the U.S. Constitution?

Will 2020 represent the beginning of a reformed Republican Party of Virginia or will it simply represent the year that opportunities were lost?

Virginia's Capital Under Siege: Richmond Turns a Blind Eye

None of what transpired in Richmond, Virginia over this past weekend should have ever been a surprise to anyone paying attention at either the local or state level. While the government and media have danced the last few months over COVID-19 and whether cities were going to "re-open" little attention was paid as groups organized in response to the George Floyd death in Minneapolis, Minnesota over a week ago.

City leaders failed their citizens. It seems apparent leaders routinely fail to grasp history or recognize that there are always patterns that can be demonstrated and analyzed. How could city leaders not comprehend the siege upon Richmond that was coming? How could they not not see any signs that a storm was on the horizon? Was there no history of violence or rioting to point to to justify securing the city? Were not the examples of Ferguson or west Baltimore coming back to them? Charlottesville 2017? Once again major riots and violence under the leadership of Virginia Democrats.

Many Virginians have lost faith in government and rightfully so. Governments that would put clear political objectives over the public welfare. A city can virtually shut down due to "perceived threat" like Covid-19 but the city cannot be secured to prevent widespread impending violence and rioting? An annual permitted rally held at the State Capital by law abiding citizens can warrant a "State of Emergency" and citizens Second Amendment rights infringed through "Executive Order" in Richmond like in January during Richmond's annual "Lobby Day" yet the government when under siege cannot bring itself to take any measure other than a "curfew" to protect citizens and property from those bent on rioting and looting?

The message from cities like Richmond, Va is clear. It will only impose restrictions on those that it deems as political adverseries. The media is not reporting that the very groups involved in Richmond and other urban centers across the country are funded by the very same groups and people as many of these leaders elected to office that are responsible for public safety. The media does not want to report this fact or how massive groups of armed "protesters" could get bussed in from multiple localities logistically and who is behind the funding and organization of events.

While the politcial class often wants to change the conversation and avoid having to address the very nature of these groups and the tactics they employ far too often the ties are clear. These ties represent a clear and present danger to the public safety of every Virginian. The very literature found on the ground in Richmond documents how the Democratic Party is in full suppoort of the destruction offering bail and bond services for any taken into custody.  This is where peaceful assembly turns into political endorsed rioting with no consequence as rioters and looters know they have the support of those in positons of authority.

Pay close attention to the news this week and look for stories where rioters and looters detained are released without prosecution only to return the the streets again because of the organized will not to hold them accountable. Remeember all those District and Commonwealth Attorney races last November that were bought by outside money in the Commonwealth of Virginia? It will be these individuals that determine whether the Commonwealth presses charges regarding felony property damage.

When the same people who fund the campaigns of the elected authority are the same ones funding the rioting organizations where does that leave justice?

Those that have doubts concerning the orgins of the riots should simply evaluate the weekends events in totality. The individuals in Richmond inciting violence and rioting were heavily organized. They were supporterd financially and provided enough funding to recruit and mobilize hundreds of individuals and have them bussed in. One such bus had license plates from Illinios. Individuals were assembled and organized into teams. One such group appeared to have clear defined leadership bearing ipads or tablets directing individuals while another group began moving cases of water bottles for staging throughout the city. These individuals were organizing and gearing up for nightfall not to participate with peaceful marchers in the city during the afternoon.

The siege to the city was an operation. Carefully planned and orchestrated on a city unprepared to hold back the violence. Teams were set about the city. It was not long before various quarters of the city from Monument Avenue to Virginia Commonwealth University area were almost completely under the control of the roaming teams set upon the city. In fact, near the Lee Monument one could visibly see rooftop spotters and at the base of the building detailed Antifa supporters providing what clearly was security. This is not the action of peaceful protesting but rather a coordinated military style operation using tactics employed by only those with the knowledge of how our military operations are conducted.


As literally hundreds worked diligently to deface the monuments it became clear they were the intial targets. Many groups like Monumental Lies have come into the city from elsewhere in the past regarding the Confederate Monuments and this weekend there were clearly coordinated efforts between those associated with Antifa, Black Lives Matters and BAM (By Any Means) to reek havoc upon the former Confederate capital. One such member could be heard chanting "Just like Charleston" which had come under siege the night before. Were these groups the very same that rioted in South Carolina the night before? Had they merely moved on to Richmond to continue the rioting?

These groups clearly came prepared. They created staging areas. They set up communications and moved groups from area to area while othewr groups clashed with police. They had small drones. Once police began to respond groups were directed to egresss and shift toward other objectives. It should have become clear that there was coordination. The city in effect for three nights was at the mercy of these groups which could target at will virtually any location.

Making matters worse the Mayor of Richmond sent the wrong message in an apology for the deployment of tear gas by police in an effort to keep units from  becoming seperated from one another amidst the escalating tension while a number of the rioters mixed in with peaceful protesters. Antifa elements merely became embolden by the messaging from the Mayor and even became more brazen by setting more fires.

Many leaders in the coming days will use the responses of the police as justifciation to reduce what they call the "militarization" of the police forces but of course this is exactly what Antifa, BLM and BAM hardliners and those supporting them want. These groups are unprepared today to clash with police if the police were permitted to use force. As tt stands today the main role being utilized by police has been a "show of force" and not actual force. If Antifa can strip the police of the bulk of its military style weaponery through the help of the political class than untilmately this last weekend's chaos will simply be a precursor to full insurrection in America.

And insurrection is the true goal of Antifa.

In effect Antifa elements for four nights used peaceful protesters as "human shields". Mixed with them and agitated and incited violence along the way and even "jumped" those they identify as anything counter to thier movement.

And the only response that the city would get from Mayor Stoney would be a curfew order.

Further proving the fact that Stoney and his fellow Progressives never understand or comprehend that criminals do not obey laws or orders. The nation has witnessed Antifa in the past and the destruction it leaves behind. One would think they would learn lessons regarding all the gun control laws that never seem to reduce gun violence but they never seem to. They either ignore the facts or simply place political agendas before the public safety of those living in the city.

Over the weekend even members of the Virginia General Assembly like Delegate Lee Carter (D) not only praised the results of the protest but participated himself in confronting police. Others like Delegate Joshua Cole (D) tweeted resources to those participating should they be taken into custody and require bail. Many legislators will use this weekend to advance further political agendas just as Presidential and Congressional candidate of both parties while cities are left to recover from the chaos. Many which will not recover for a decade.

The people are losing trust in the cities. Many will leave the cities once again. Its happened before. Richmonder's knopw this all too well. It took the city twenty years to see people return to live in the city and now city leaders have placed all that progress in jeopardy.

IThe events of the alst week will expose once again the extreme "activism" that supercedes "leadership" in the Virginia General Assembly and state government. The majority sat on their hands while the fires blazed.

The mere notion that law abiding gun owners from all over Virginia converging on Richmond for an annual event in January was a "perceived threat" to the public but riots that began Friday night were never in fact treated with the same level of concern. It took three days for the local and state government to respond but by that time the Antifa elements had already been successful at implementing the targeted siege organizationally.

Richmonders need to to take a hard look at city leadership. A leadership that apparently is willing to put politcial expediency before public safety and property.

The City Police stated the following:

"We do have anti-fascists, we have some anarchists, to a large degree, but there's people from outside of this state and outside of this area that we know that are involved and we're doing our best to identify them and backtracking what their affiliations are," he said. "I think that's clear. When you look at the things that they're targeting... I think we can all understand attacking the symbols of the past and of the racist past. But when you look at trying to burn down a VCU dormitory, or burn down people's homes, or burn down and loot the stores that we depend on every day. Those things don't correlate at all. So, you know, I think there is a much more organized effort, and we're doing our very best to determine where that's coming from and who's pulling the strings."

Sponsor- Forage 

To learn more on how to earn Ethereum (1 ETH = $232 per) you can convert to USD copy and paste this link and join the Forsage community. 
                                                      https://tinyurl.com/yarss9h9