There is a growing divide brewing within the Republican Party of Virginia in 2020.
Leaders within the party continue to fight as much with one another as it does with the opposition. The Virginia Democrats have taken advantage of the lack of unified messaging from the Virginia Republicans and are creating a formidable wall of defense with regard to all the seats that it won the last three years at the Virginia Executive and Congressional levels.
Supporters of the Republican Party of Virginia have a hard time fully understanding what is happening to a party that once dominated Virginia politics and surrendered the majority in the General Assembly in 2019. The Democrats have continued to capitalize on the fractured atmosphere that exists with the Republican leadership over how after twenty plus years of control must now find a way to become a unified "opposition party" in Richmond. The Democrats no longer require the Republicans to pass the legislation they seek to advance and odds today are in 2021 they will sweep the Virginia Executive for the third cycle in a row transforming Virginia with each new session of the Assembly.
It does not help that State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (I-R) the lone "Republican" candidate declared for the GOP nomination for the Virginia Governor's race in 2021 was uninvited by the Northern Virginia Chamber to speak at an event citing inappropriate comments. This is one of the largest conservative organizations in the the largest region in all of the Commonwealth of Virginia.
The divide that is growing within Virginia Republicans is being fueled by those that lack any vision of the future or how to actually win statewide races by creating messaging that resonates with voters all across the Commonwealth of Virginia. One perfect example of success is easily recognized across the Potomac River with the election of Republican Governor Larry Hogan in Maryland. Virginia is looking more and more like Maryland with every passing election as Democrats secure stronger footholds in newly drawn districts just as Maryland Democrats did almost a decade ago. Hogan was able to defeat the Democrats twice in a state that is by far more liberal than Virginia on balance and he did so with a clear, concise message of working together to address the needs of all. In Virginia, you have a significant element that will not tolerate any compromise with Democrats and unfortunately for them they will never win a statewide race even if they happen to secure enough votes to win primaries or conventions to nominate candidates who fail to have a broader vision outside the echo chambers of small groups within the party.
Virginia just witnessed the "echo chamber effect" within two conventions held this summer. Conventions are no longer the preferred method of nominee selection by the majority of Republican voters in Virginia yet many district committees continue to push conventions upon the people. For example, in the Virginia 7th in 2018 some three hundred and fifty thousand Virginians voted in the election that saw incumbent David Brat (R) upset by Abigail Spanberger (D) by two points and yet this summer 5,100 delegates would converge on Meadow Event Park in Doswell, VA to select a Republican challenger. Almost one hundred and seventy thousand voted in support of Brat in 2018 and of that number a mere 5,100 would determine who the Republicans would nominate for challenge Rep. Spanberger in November.
Similar to the Virginia 5th Congressional Convention weeks prior, the Virginia 7th would not be without the fireworks that always seem to happen when thousands of Republicans come together. The reason for this is simple. The Republican Party of Virginia is not some myopic association that many perceive it to be as it is comprised of many elements that form its coalition. The most vocal of its elements is rarely the majority within the coalition and far too often it is the religious Republicans typically known as "social conservatives" that dominate conventions yet rarely ever dominate primaries.
The saying goes in Virginia that Republicans nominate "lambs" via conventions and nominate "challengers" via primaries.
This summer the district committees once again remained true to form. While nominating those candidates that one very specific element in the coalition that dominates committees wishes to nominate over candidates that actually could appeal to a broader electorate in the general they will continue the downward cycle of losses the Republicans have suffered for a decade.
No two examples better illustrate this than the Virginia 5th and Virginia 7th in 2020. The district committee in the VA05 were so determined to unseat the libertarian minded incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman that they sought to interview and court a half dozen potential challengers before settling on Bob Good of Campbell County and then used the fact that Riggleman officiated a gay wedding as a wedge issue with the religious element to oust him. This convention speaks to the cancer that exists in the convention process where an incumbent endorsed by President Trump is abandoned over a "social" issue and his 90% conservative voting record in Congress ignored.
The Virginia 7th Convention took three rounds to settle on Delegate Nick Freitas whose support was overwhelmingly from the same elements that supported Good along with State Senator Amanda Chase (I-R) an independent Republican seeking the nomination in 2021 to run for Governor. Chase is widely known as David Brat acolyte paired with a Corey Stewart style platform that endorsed Freitas and attacked his opponents repeatedly during the process. Freitas was clearly happy to have the Chase endorsement and her presence on convention day campaigning on his behalf during the later rounds of the convention to sway delegates yet never placed the Chase endorsement on his official campaign page going into the convention.
Senator Chase has clearly been electioneering for quite some time since leaving the GOP Caucus in the Virginia Senate. Chase had been a supporter of Rep. Denver Riggleman in 2018 yet failed to support him in 2020 or even make any statements regarding his campaign once she determined to run for Governor. Many in the political universe saw this fact as a move to secure the donations from the district committee forces that represent the more "social conservative" elements of the party. Furthermore, Chase demonstrated her utter inexperience in statewide campaigning by attacking Delegate John McGuire in her efforts to support Freitas. McGuire has won elections and has dedicated supporters in areas of the Commonwealth that Chase would require in any successful statewide run. Chase has targeted McGuire along with State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (VA-12) both of which whom have conservative support in the liberal county of Henrico County.
It is worth noting that Rep. Spanberger (D) won Henrico County in 2018 by 18 points over Rep. David Brat (R) and won over fifty precincts with an overall twenty thousand vote margin in Henrico that more than offset any gains that Brat secured in the rural areas. Brat performed poorly in suburban Richmond having lost both major suburban localities outside Richmond which are vastly more populated than the other areas of the Virginia 7th. It has also been lost during the nomination process that the VA07 no longer has the advantage of the historical 70-30% conservative districts of Hanover County once part of the VA07 that helped Brat in previous cycles that now are part of the VA01. (Rep. Rob Wittman-R).
The loss of the Republican voters in Hanover County places greater significance on winning a larger portion of the Henrico and Chesterfield County electorate. Brat lost Chesterfield County in 2018 by 10 points and by some ten thousand votes. Chesterfield like Henrico has seen a shift to the left in voting metrics over the last decade. This appears totally lost on the Virginia 7th convention nominating process and Chase herself.
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| Former Rep. David Brat, State Senator Chase, Delegate Nick Freitas |
The Senator Chase claim that she can help deliver Chesterfield to Freitas would be a considerable feat given her most recent election. In the VA11 Senate District where Chase has won two elections has seen her support erode over five years. After winning the primary over Sen. Steve Martin and winning in the pro-Trump 11th by 27 points in 2015, Chase sought re-election in 2019. Chase defeated Amanda Pohl last November but only won by 9 points compared to 27 points in 2015. The 11th is experiencing a political shift like many other areas of Chesterfield as more younger families move into the county seeking better educational prospects for their children. Chase does not appeal to younger families and especially to younger women which went for her opponent in 2019.
Chase refuses to admit let alone address in her campaign messaging that her colleague in the Virginia Senate Siobhan Dunnavant is a reflection of what Chase's own district is becoming and Chase would be wise to heed the lessons of the VA12 and how Dunnavant won in such a competitive district. Chase calls Dunnavant and other Senators like Jill Vogel "liberal" or "democrat light" simply because they have understood how to win in changing and challenging districts. Leaders who understand that you cannot win elections alienating a third of the population through divisive rhetoric. Chase's recent facebook posts regarding drivers licenses for non citizens or illegal aliens in the Commonwealth is perfect example. Over seventy percent of voters in Northern Virginia support such action for many reasons. For one thing, getting into an accident with a driver with no identification or license provides many troublesome issues for Virginians. Chase also rejects the notion that "illegal aliens" should receive in state tuition even if the family has lived in Virginia for over a decade or more, pay taxes and clearly have residency in Virginia. Most universities and college have requirements in place regarding residency outside of "citizenship". These are just two recent issues that Chase is on the wrong side of most Virginians, especially in the areas of the Commonwealth required to win any statewide office.
Senator Chase in her recent attacks on State Senator Jill Vogel (R) in her supporters groups was simply a warning shot to Vogel from Chase that was nothing more than passive aggressive bullying. Chase fails to understand that Senator Vogel even though losing to Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax in 2017 earned 1.2 million votes or 47%. In comparison if other elections are examined there is something very telling regarding why it is Vogel earned that result. In the same 2017 cycle, Ed Gillespie earned 44%, Adams 46% and the year before Trump earned just 44% while in 2018 Corey Stewart earned just 41% in Virginia.
If Vogel is a so-called "liberal" as Chase has asserted, what does it say concerning how she has had the greatest appeal of any statewide conservative candidate since former Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and Governor Bob McDonnell in 2009? Why do candidates like Chase, Freitas and Good fail to comprehend how in 2009 Republican messaging resonated with voters resulting in the last statewide sweep for the Republicans? How is it that the victories of Governor Larry Hogan in Maryland are ignored as well? Do these candidate think that the majority of Virginians wish to go back and not forward? Do they believe that Virginians wish to re-argue gay marriage and social issues all over? Do they some how believe that the electorate has not shifted in Virginia since 2014?
It appears as though all three of these candidates are running the same kind of campaign that was launched numerous times and failed in Virginia. Chase in fact has the most inexperienced campaign staff of any potential statewide candidate that comes to mind and at times it appears as though Chase is running her own campaign and thus far is proving why it is not an easy thing to navigate in Virginia no matter how sure of yourself one is. While Freitas has done an outstanding job at raising money for his Congressional bid, Good and Chase are floundering. This has much to do with the messaging and lack of support for the majority of the Republicans.
Bob Good (R) in the VA05 has raised around 260,000 in comparison to Rep. Denver Riggleman whom has raised five times that number before being defeated at the convention. Good's opponent Cameron Webb (D) has raised 1.3 million. Senator Chase announced she raised 200,000 in the first quarter of her campaign as the only Republican declared candidate. However, Chase's opponents have all stormed out of gate and are raising money at a much faster pace than Chase. Chase continues her attempts to convince Republicans outperforming Democrats. Chase proclaimed "I'm beating the
Democrats" Yet the reality is the first quarter reporting for Chase has been a disaster in creating confidence in her ability to raise money.
Chase has over 120,000 "followers" on her facebook page which translates to barely over $1 per follower donated in the first quarter. This means that Chase has not connected with large donor classes in truth and recently has taken a beating on social media for taking contributions from the very progressive Clean Virginia Fund whose backers are known supporters of pro-abortion and anti-gun organizations. A stark contradiction to Chase's public persona yet when pressed is rumored to have stated she would accept money from anyone. Hardly what many conservatives want to hear from someone professing to not be a traditional "politician".
Delegate Jennifer Foy (D) has just over 7,000 followers on facebook. State Senator McClellan (D) has less than 7,000 followers and consider these numbers in the context of the overall fundraising below. It is clear that Chase is convinced that "Likes" and "Followers" are meaningful coupled with "small donors" as if campaigns are run like nothing more than the equivalent of you tubers or instagram metrics. Chase is hardly "beating" anyone!
Delegate Jennifer Foy (D) and State Senator Jennifer McClellan(D) both announced months after Senator Chase in a crowded field of Democrats likely to run for Governor including Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and potentially Attorney General Mark Herring. Foy raised $785, 910 in just six weeks and McClellan raised $410,992 far outpacing Chase yet none of them compare to the 1.2 million raised by former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) who has not even formally declared. These are the Democrats that Chase claims she is "beating".
Some will argue that Democrats raising more money may be expected however this does not explain how the Chase campaign is trailing results turned in by former statewide Republican candidates like Gillespie or Cuccinelli. Furthermore , Daniel Gade (R) running for U.S Senate and a newcomer to Virginia politics has raised almost one million since declaring. There could be some impacting issues like Congressional races or even donations to President Trump for November. Thus, a critical quarter for Chase will be the reporting period following the Presidential election in November.
Delegate Freitas raised the most in the run up to the Virginia 7th Convention and has raised over 2 million. This equates to half as much as Rep. Abigail Spanberger has raised however Spanberger is outperforming Freitas in the suburban fundraising effort. The shortened period between the convention and the election benefits Spanberger and the continued divisions with the party have not healed even though leaders defeated during the convention have offered support for Nick Freitas. These gestures have not stemmed the anger that still remains with the manner in which the convention was undertaken and the fact that many see Freitas as an illegitimate candidate due the fact that he failed to file properly and within the deadline. This was the second time Republicans have had to reconcile the inability of the Freitas campaign to file its paperwork on time let alone the concern over the delegate allocation approved. The later resulted in contested votes cast at the convention from other candidates.
The results of both the Virginia 5th and 7th hardly left the majority of Republicans with the feeling that their voice was actually being heard via the convention. Republicans understand they are now faced with the potential of losing a seat in Congress in the VA05 as a result of the convention gaming and corruption that resulted on the district committee where members were actually compensated by the Bob Good campaign disclosed in his financial reporting. While not nearly as extreme, many believed that the VA07 convention was gamed to support Freitas coupled with the push back by other GOP leaders against Delegate John McGuire whose challenges to Freitas were largely never answered by Freitas himself but by surrogates like Senator Chase and Bryce Reeves. Both signed a letter just days before the convention in support of Freitas by basically calling Delegate John McGuire out for "dirty" tactics.
The Virginia GOP has had an opportunity this summer to redefine itself. Unfortunately, what has transpired has taken the Republican Party further away from the core belief systems that actually unite the coalition. The majority of campaign messaging thus far has been directed at the smaller elements or hard line base fringes than the greater electorate who is observing the manner in which these candidates are conducting themselves out on the campaign trail and who they are speaking to. Candidates like Senator Chase have thrown the old Republican value of not speaking ill towards other Republican out the window all together summer. Chase has directed much of her attention and fiery toward the Republican Party and Governor Northam neither of which will be on the ballot come November 2021. The attacks launched against fellow Republicans seems to be an attempt to dissuade any other Republicans from entering the race against her or a means of elevating her "fighter" mentality no matter how misguided or misdirected in an attempts to mirror President Trump.
The issue Chase may have is what happens should Trump lose Virginia this November and Republicans lose VA05 and fail to take back the VA07? Will Republicans finally see that this messaging is a flawed approach in 2020-21 to winning in Virginia? Will Republicans see this as an opportunity to acknowledge that Virginia has shifted to the center on many issues and no longer wish to re-legislate the "settled issues" of the past any longer and seek to address healthcare, education, limited government, reduction in size of government, reduction in taxation and respect for the individual and the freedoms and liberty outlined in the U.S. Constitution?
Will 2020 represent the beginning of a reformed Republican Party of Virginia or will it simply represent the year that opportunities were lost?
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