With so many things facing Virginians today stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic to the November elections coming this Fall, many Virginians have forgotten that 2020 is also a year for the latest U. S. Census to report as it does every ten years.
The Conservative State is a huge proponent of redistricting BUT only after creating new districts that add to the number of seats in both the House of Delegates and Senate in Virginia. The Census will determine whether a new Congressional district is required and by all accounts it will not demonstrate a need for an additional seat however the 2020 Census likely will demonstrate that the new Virginia population requires greater representation not less. The state will have to determine how it handles to growing population and representation. Virginia thus far has refused to address its representation ratios.
Most Virginians are unaware that the number of seats in the Virginia Assembly have not changed in centuries. Seats are tied to the State Constitution which clearly requires amending in this regard. Virginia has the same number of Delegates and Senators today as it had before the railroads or autos. In fact, Virginia has the same number of seats (districts) throughout Virginia representing Virginians as it had when the Virginia population was roughly one million.
The U.S. Census 2020 in all likelihood will demonstrate that the Virginian population is close to 9 million. That is 9X as many Virginians living in Virginia today than in 1900 and yet we still have the same number of elected legislators in Richmond. Districts that once represented 20 or 30 thousand Virginians now represent 80-100 and some Virginia Senatorial districts now represent almost 200,000 Virginians.
Think on that.
The Census Bureau is part of the United States Commerce Department and it produces vital data on both the people and the economy. The data generated impacts communities all across the Commonwealth by guiding the funding that communities often receive from federal authorities, however the data is also important in illustrating population shifts or changes in density. This of course plays a vital role in determining how many Congressional seats a state may have in Congress sense that number is pegged to population in order to maintain a "representative" body in the House reflecting the current populations in America.
Virginia currently boast 11 Congressional seats in the House of Representatives. As of today the Virginia Congressional Delegation consists of 7 Democrats and 4 Republicans however each seat is on the ballot this November and many are no predicting that the Democrats pick up at least one Congressional seat and that seat is predicted to be the Virginia 5th District. The VA-05 recently held a convention style nominating process that one could only describe as dubious at best resulting in the nomination of "biblically red conservative" Bob Good from Campbell County, VA over incumbent Representative Denver Riggleman (R). The convention has come under wide scrutiny for having been the most corrupt convention stemming from voter suppression of potential delegates to pay offs by the Good campaign to committee members making critical determinations effecting Republicans voters in the district. The District Committee is controlled locally by religious social conservatives who sought about identifying a challenger to unseat Riggleman once it learned that Riggleman had violated their sacred order; thou shall only marry a man and a woman. Riggleman performed a same sex marriage service that resulted in the committee seeking to remove him. This is the same committee where its chair publically denounced gay Virginians in 2019 and continually uses the Bible as a sword and not a shield when it comes to issues beset the district. As a result, many believe the VA-05 will be won by the Democrats this November resulting in a pickup.
The future of these Congressional districts are also tied to the 2020 Census. The Virginia redistricting effort is always one of the most controversial political issues before the General Assembly because it is less about maps and people as much as it is about the consolidation of power via the majority. Elections have consequences and one major consequence of the 2019 General Assembly races was the fact that the Democrats secured the "trifecta" of power now controlling the Executive and both chambers of the Legislature.
This year and the upcoming 2021 General Assembly session merely represents the Democrats opportunity to have its go at "gerrymandering" no different than years past when the Republican majority had its turn every ten years. Back in 2019 the Legislature passed a measure to set up a sixteen member commission to address the next redistricting to reconfigure both congressional and state lines that could ultimately create new voting districts. The commission was further supported in the 2020 General Assembly as all constitutional amendments much be voted upon and passed by two consecutive session separated by one legislature general election.
However, the commission was never supported by all within the Democratic Caucus. Many believed that the Democrats would secure the majority as early as the 2019 session and did not want to give up a bigger bite at the apple if they in fact won majority. Now in 2020 this contingent of Democrats wants voters to reject the proposed amendment to create the commission.
Of course the argument as it always is with the Virginia Legislative Black Caucus is that they were never fully considered when the proposal was brought to the floor again in 2020 for the second vote on advancing it to a 2020 referendum for voters. The division regarding the amendment within the Democratic Party is illustrated by the far more "progressive" arm of the party with members like Del. Lamont Babgby (Henrico) and Mark Levine (Arlington).
The commission composition was always a contentious debate. It will comprise eight Virginia lawmakers and eight citizens of the Commonwealth.
The commission will in all accounts be grounded by Voting Rights Act which is supposed to ensure that representation represents racial and ethnic diversity. Of course we also are bound or should be anyway by the 15th Amendment which protects the right to vote and that voting shall not be infringed in any manner. The manner in which voting is typically infringed is "voter suppression". Many are that "gerrymandering" is simply a legal means to circumvent the 15th Amendment and suppress votes from those person that those in power seek to silence.
Many Democrats now seek to mute the progress made the last two years and have the referendum defeated come November. Defeat would permit them to go back and re draft a proposal they believe addresses more of the concerns of the majority, however opposition sees it as more of a ploy to simply now rig the game with how redistricting completely changed places like Maryland.
The commission appears to illustrate a common theme in Richmond; we were for it before we were against it. Nothing demonstrates a lust for power more so than redistricting. The very fact that legislatures have a vested personal interest in the outcomes of such proposals contributes to the lack of faith citizens have in any process relating to "gerrymandering".
While legislators will certainly debate the line drawn one alternative that legislators ignore is the need for greater representation not less in Richmond. This could likely be from self interest of course yet the facts of the U.S. Census will demonstrate that as Virginia pushes towards 10 million people the time has come to review redistricting in a whole new, broader manner.
Virginia as it stands today has smaller proportionality of representation in its legislature than its neighbors. Some of these neighbors have less population than Virginia but more legislators. Why? Maryland just across the Potomac River has 47 State Senators with 6 million people. Virginia has just 40 and 8.5 million people. Why does Maryland have seven more districts? While Maryland has 47 districts for Senate it has 141 Delegates. Maryland's current legislature design goes back to 1972 when Maryland changed things and it revisits plan every ten years along with the U. S Census. Its 141 delegates are elected from the 47 districts created. Each district sends 3 delegates to the state house in Annapolis.
Virginia has 40 Senatorial districts and if each district sent three delegates to Richmond than Virginia would have 120 delegates to serve the people. Virginia has 100 delegates in the House of Delegates. Thus, Virginian has two million if not almost three million more people and seven less State Senators and twenty-one less State Delegates.
The real question Virginians must ask themselves when they look at Richmond and wonder why it no longer reflects their values is the very fact that Richmond has suppressed representational democracy in truth for decades shifting the power through redistricting to the northern region of the Commonwealth.
The Republicans do not in fact hold a single seat in the heavily dense areas of Northern Virginia localities of Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William, and Alexandria yet voting metrics and data show that Republicans typically generate 27-30% of the voting population in these areas. If there were greater representational diversity in Richmond, would not these voices no longer be silenced?
Remember this when you hear the debate go forward. Virginia is one of only two states that the legislature selects its State Supreme Court where undoubtedly the redistricting debates typically end up in one way or another. Democrats like Del. Mark Levine advocate that this body is comprised mostly of the former majorities appointments and therefore is not a legitimate body to rule given the fact that Virginia has now shifted to a Democratic majority and a partisan ruling would in effect not be in the interests of the will of the people. This of course is an assertion that Republican appointed justices would simply rule in line with the will of the minority in Richmond yet we have seen at the federal level in 2020 that these assertions are mere myopic views of the Progressive mindset themselves where their appointees do in fact rule on cases in lock step with the political will of the Democratic Party. However, in 2020 we have seen Republican appointed justices rule time and time again against President Trump or what they perceived Republicans position may be. Even Chief Justice Roberts has joined the more liberal justices on various issues in 2020.
Make no mistake it will require a grassroots effort by the people to create the "call to action" regarding changes to the legislature. Legislators prefer small not larger bodies in the same manner in which a Party prefers convention over a primary. Its about control. The very make up of the legislature in 2020 screams disenfranchisement and voter suppression. Its about nothing more than the "power grab effect".
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