Any analysis of a particular race in Virginia these days often triggers many defense mechanisms. For too long these defense mechanisms have created a situation of denial for the Virginia GOP in which there has been little acknowledgement or change in the party messaging given the changing demographics on the ground in many localities in Virginia.
An objective analysis here based not only historical voting trends, demographics, metrics but also conversations with voters on the ground in Henrico County going into next months Congressional contest in the VA-07.
The VA-07 is an historically a very conservative district in Virginia currently represented by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) elected in 2018 during to so-called "blue wave" election that was the first Congressional cycle following the election of President Trump in 2016.
The Virginia GOP is seeking to unseat Rep. Spanberger and nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) late summer to challenge her via a nominating convention. Freitas was nominated after three rounds of ballots at the convention held in Doswell, Virginia.
I respect Delegate Nick Freitas and find him to be an outstanding Delegate from Culpeper County who is in my opinion one of the best orators on the floor of the Virginia House of Delegates. While Freitas ran in 2018 for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and lost to Corey Stewart (R), I hope that the result of this election does not negatively impact the future of this rising star in the Virginia GOP. Elections always can offer surprises however this cycle is probably one of the most divisive in Virginia history since the Presidential Election of 1860.
Often it is inevitable that "down ballot" candidates can be at the mercy of the Presidential race. One recent factor with independent voters is the takeaway from the first and possibly only Presidential debate last week that many perceived as the worst in debate history.
The coming 2020 Census will certainly reveal even more changes in demographics that have occurred in the last decade in Henrico County, however what is obvious to any political analyst is the the trends on the ground in suburban areas have shifted from supporting Republicans in Virginia overwhelmingly a decade ago to now supporting Democrats in Presidential, Congressional and statewide races for the Virginia Executive.
The Virginia Seventh Congressional District offers us insight into this shift given two of the largest suburban localities in Virginia comprise the majority of voters in the district. Both Chesterfield County and Henrico County were once Republican strongholds in Virginia election history. The latter no longer can be considered a Republican stronghold given the shift in the last decade and the former may shift left as well in the coming cycle.
Understand this.
Henrico County will determine the winner of the Congressional race in 2020 for the VA-07.
No examination of the race for the VA-07 Congressional seat can ignore what has happened in Henrico County over the last few years politically. Henrico County truly illustrates the ground that the Virginia GOP has lost in suburbia. Many pundits on the right would likely disagree but the voting metrics reveal a very distinct transformation in voting behavior in suburbs the more the Virginia GOP takes extreme positions on social issues and federal immigration policies. The messaging remains mixed and the perception is that the Virginia GOP does not support immigrants even though the intent was to address "illegal" immigrants. Candidates like Corey Stewart and State Senator Amanda Chase have alienated many immigrants according to many residents in the VA-07.
What has contributed to this shift in voting trends?
The biggest factor is clearly the demographic change that Henrico with roughly 330,000 residents has experienced over the last decade.
One of the changes is that there are now more women living in Henrico now representing 52%+ of the population. A population now has a growing non-white population where the Blacks represent 30%, Asians 10% and Hispanics now 7%. This constitutes an estimated 47% of the population in Henrico.
The GOP nationally is facing declines in support from women and immigrant groups. Some political analysts and firms that track such polling data have estimated that the GOP is now -34% with women and -19% with immigrant populations. Whether one agrees with such analysis or not the metrics of this are playing out at the polls and is demonstrated in the correlation in the decline of Republican support in Henrico in the last few election cycles.
Henrico by any estimation is an affluent locality. 18% of population has a post graduate degree and 52% of the population as at least some college or a college degree. These metrics represent 10% higher than the Virginia averages.
Another relevant factor in 2020 is the rising 16% of the population that is 65+. This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP and the Nick Freitas campaign because national polling is demonstrating that President Trump is losing support of seniors dramatically compared to 2016.
One of the biggest metrics now in Henrico in terms of elections is the fact that 13.5% of the population is now "foreign born". This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP on the coat tails of the Corey Stewart 2018 campaign for U.S. Senate and the current campaign for the GOP nomination for Governor by Amanda Freeman Chase for 2021. The GOP has steadily lost support in the immigrant community since 2013 after earning a large share of it in 2009. The majority of immigrants coming to Henrico are from Asia (55%) and Latin America (23%) followed by Europe (12%) and Africa (9%). There appears little outreach efforts thus far from the Republican Party of Virginia this cycle to appeal to the immigrant communities throughout Virginia.
The factor that appears to have not drawn virtually any messaging from the GOP and specifically the Nick Freitas campaign is that the majority of new business start-ups have come from women and "foreign born" Virginians in Henrico. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis has directly impacted many of these business yet there appears to be very little mention of how President Trump's actions have supported the business communities whether lower corporate taxes or stimulus provisions to support small business. Rep. Spanberger has leveraged thus far the actions of Congress in terms of the first stimulus to her own ends in touting support for small business.
An example of the Spanberger pitch:
"For 2 years, I’ve worked to be a strong voice in Congress on the issues that impact people’s daily lives in #VA07. -Lowering the cost of prescription drugs -Expanding broadband internet access -Recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic"
Freitas is a Army veteran and 6.3% of the Henrico population are veterans with the overwhelming majority having served in Vietnam and the Gulf War 1990's. Recent polling has demonstrated weaker support from veterans in 2020 for Trump than in 2016 and this should be a real concern as well for the Freitas campaign. Rep. Scott Taylor is experiencing the same dynamic in his challenge for his old seat in the VA-02 comprising the Virginia Beach region.
The median income for residents of Henrico is roughly 68,000. This is a factor that should play well for the Freitas campaign however there has been very little messaging regarding the Trump tax cuts thus far from the campaign that certainly benefited a majority of residents living in Henrico. Instead the majority of the messaging thus far has targeted Rep. Abigail Spanberger's (D) voting record in Congress the last two years and her alignment with some of the most liberal in the House of Representatives.
What is interesting is the continued attempted links to Speaker of House Pelosi and the Spanberger voting record and the assertion that Spanberger is not as "moderate" or "blue dog" as she campaigns compared to when she is voting in Washington appears to be an extension of similar messaging that failed Rep. David Brat (R) in 2018. Spanberger in truth does not appear to have a very "moderate" record at all however the message does not appear to resonate with many voters in the manner in which it is asserted.
Thus far the approach appears to be a strategy set on "voting against" Spanberger as opposed to "voting for" Nick Freitas. The issue with this approach in talking with voters in Henrico is that while the Presidential election very well may be a "referendum" election on Trump, many voters do not see this Congressional election in the VA-07 as a "referendum" on Spanberger. Spanberger like Freitas is very lpersonable nd likeable figure when you speak with people whom have met both of them
I recently had the opportunity to speak with some voters from Henrico where my wife lived for a time and what is rather interesting is the amount of split voting that may occur next month among independent voters that thus far is not showing up in any polling. It is estimated that roughly 14% of voters nationally are independent voters and these voters are often less concerned with "policy" per say as many other voters. They are not partisans by any means and many have voted for Democrats as many times as Republicans. Many for example supported Trump in 2016 yet supported Democrats in 2017 for Delegates representing Henrico in the Virginia General Assembly. These very seats have all flipped the last decade to the Democrats in the county.
What has to be (or should be) alarming to the Virginia GOP is the steep decline in support for Republican candidates in Henrico County.
Out of a population of 330,000 some 105,000 voters turned out in 2018 at the polls in the last Congressional race for the VA-07. Spanberger won Henrico County 60.96% to 36.89% over Rep. David Brat (R).
In 2016 Rep. David Brat had won the county with 50.77% of the vote but came in -14% cycle over cycle. There are some reasons of course in examining the decline in support for the GOP candidates however not one more meaningful than redistricting. The GOP used to have the support of Hanover County precincts to the tune of 70% in the years that Rep. Eric Cantor (R) held the seat when the GOP dominated the VA-07 at the polls.
In statewide races Henrico shifted from support of statewide and national Republicans to Democratic candidates where it once supported the likes of Bob McDonnell (R) for Governor in 2009 but by 2013 had started to shift to the left at the polls. Governor Terry McAuliffe decimated Republicans in 2013 with an astounding 51.2% to 38% over Ken Cuccinelli. Subsequent candidates from the GOP have met similar fate though Brat did win in an off cycle election in 2014 with 55% of the vote.
If we examine Rep. David Brat's performance in VA-07 after defeating Rep.Eric Cantor (R) in an historic primary with the support of the Tea Party the movement quickly fizzled out and was reabsorbed back into into the GOP much to the dismay of many within it. Thus from 2014 where Brat earned 55% in Henrico he declined to 50.77% in 2016 and ultimately 36.89%. Overall throughout the VA-07 in 2018 Brat earned 48.40% some 12 points better than he performed in Henrico.
What is interesting when speaking to Henrico County voters when one canvasses or speaks to residents is that there is still support for some local Republicans. State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant withheld a challenge in 2019 by Delegate Debra Rodman (D) who she defeated 50.76% to 49.06%. Much of this can be attributed to the Hanover precincts that remain in the VA-12 Senate District that no longer are part of the VA-07 Congressional.
Dunnavant outperformed both President Trump and Rep. David Brat in heavily "red" precincts and many of them by four to six basis points.
Lets examine a few precincts that will impact the 2020 Congressional race for the GOP:
103: Glen Allen
2012 : 61.95 (Cantor) 2016 : 60.38 (Brat) 2016: 49% Trump 2018: 48.57 (Brat) 2019: Dunnavant 54.37
302: Cedarfield
2012: 64% (Cantor) 2016: 62% (Brat) 2016: 50% (Trump) 2018: 51% (Brat) 2019: Dunnavant 57%
403: Derbyshire
2012: 69% (Cantor) 2016: 66% (Brat) 2016: 54% (Trump) 2018: 55% (Brat) 2019: Dunnavant 60%
417: Tuckahoe
2012: 72% (Cantor) 2016: 69% (Brat) 2016: 54% (Trump) 2018: 56% (Brat) 2019 Dunnavant 65%
These are heavily conservative leaning precincts and illustrate that even among these districts there have been shifts metrics wise over last decade.
Some other races to consider: Henrico supported the following-
Hillary Clinton (D) 2016- 57%
Governor Ralph Northam (D) 2017 52%
U.S Senator Tim Kaine (D) 2018 57%
Now worth consideration for supporters of the Virginia GOP to consider is that the two Republican candidates that have outperformed all other GOP candidates are:
State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) 2019 50.76%
Jill Vogel (Lt. Governor Candidate) 2017 50%
Republicans must overcome the denial of the trends on the ground in suburbia that Henrico illustrate. The two women representing the GOP on ballots in Henrico County recently are the very two Republicans that the State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase wing of the party ( Cuccinelli, Stewart, Brat) have railed against and attempted to label as "Liberal Republicans" or "Establishment" yet it appears these State Senators appeal to voters and know how to appeal to voters via dedicated messaging that speaks to families in the suburbs. Another is Lt. Governor Bill Bolling from Hanover that pulled in 56.29% of the vote across Virginia in 2009 and has become a target of the Chase campaign in recent weeks rehashing the 2013 race in which Bolling withdrew and AG Ken Cuccinelli supported by Chase won the nomination and ultimately lost to Governor Terry McAuliffe (D).
Given the trends on the ground and the historical metrics, the Virginia GOP and Delegate Nick Freitas appear in real trouble even in the wake of over reach by the Virginia State Legislature in the last year and an aggressive GOTV effort for GOP supporters.
I anticipate the following results next month in the VA-07 UNLESS messaging changes in the next three weeks----for example have yet to see a single Spanish ad this cycle or heard one on the radio thus far from Freitas ( if anyone has please comment below so I may locate it). 6% of the population speaks Spanish as primary language in the home in Henrico and there is a significant rising population in Spotsylvania and Chesterfield Counties. This something that Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) used effectively in 2009 yet the consultant trend in the GOP is to not spend in this area it seems the last few cycles. A correlation can be drawn directly to this lack of focus to the declining trend in Hispanic support for Virginia GOP statewide and Congressional candidates.
Important to note:
2016 Trump won VA-07 51.14% to 43.30%
Amelia County: (6,000 voters) Freitas
Chesterfield County: (113,000 voters) Spanberger
Culpeper County: (20,000 voters) Freitas
Goochland County: (13,000 voters) Freitas
Henrico County:(105,000 voters) Spanberger
Louisa County: (16,000 voters) Freitas
Nottoway County: (6,000 voters) Freitas
Orange County: (16,000 voters) Freitas
Powhatan County; (18,000 voters) Freitas
Spotsylvania County: (38,000 voters) Freitas
I expect Delegate Nick Freitas to win every rural locality in the VA-07 which all lean Conservative however I expect Rep. Abigail Spanberger to win re-election because she will will hold serve in both Henrico County and Chesterfield County she won in 2018. Spanberger easily wins Henrico County however Chesterfield while very tight race in 2016 between Trump and Clinton with Trump only winning the historically conservative Chesterfield by less than 1% supported Spanberger two years later in 2018 by 10 points.
Guest Contributor
Jonathan Scott
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