VA-07 Election Anaysis: The More Things Change the More They Stay The Same

As the data and the metrics continue to come pouring in and the result in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District (VA-07) no longer appears in doubt, the Republican Party of Virginia should wast little time in diving into the data points that determined the election last week in favor of Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) for a second time in two years.

There should be some level of concern on the part of Republicans that should not be dismissed by the establishment interest or the political consultant class. Many Republican campaigns have used the same consultants over the course of the last decade that appear to have not read the electorate at large or the metrics on the ground especially well in suburban Virginia. There appears a widening disconnect between the GOP candidates and suburban voters, especially suburban women, minorities and "foreign born" voters.

The fact remains that the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has steadily lost the suburban vote over the last seven years. Consultants would like to lay much of this at the feet of President Trump however this is an easy out for them that often is not substantiated by the many of the metrics.

For example, in 2020 President Trump outperformed many of the Republican candidates for Congress. One rising star for the RPV is Aliscia Andrews (R) who ran in the VA-10 and managed to generated higher percentages than Trump in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties in her district. In her precincts in Prince William County, Andrews outperformed Trump by 13 points and in Fairfax County by 10 points followed by Loudoun County and Clarke County by 3 points.

Conversely, President Trump outperformed candidates like Bob Good (R) in VA-05 and Del. Nick Freitas in VA-07 in about half as many of the counties in the districts and not simply rural localities. In an election cycle where the media all but declared suburbia for the Democrats as a repudiation of Trump, not all of suburbia reflected that narrative.

Trump managed to raise his percentage in Henrico County from 36.60% in 2016 to 38.73% however Del. Nick Freitas came in under both Trump's 2020 performance as well as Rep. David Brat's 40.12% in 2018 for the seat in VA-07. Del. Freitas would lose Henrico 60.64% to 39.18 where Rep. Spanberger increased her voting percentage by 2 points from 2018. 

Spanberger also managed to raise her voting percentage in Chesterfield County just under a percent as the difference in the result resulted in the same 10 point margin in the Democrats favor. Spanberger outperformed Biden almost a point in Chesterfield and over a point in Henrico. Spanberger raised her vote count in Chesterfield County from 60,897 in 2018 to 80,161 in 2020 and in Henrico from 63,892 in 2018 to 80,421 in 2020. These two localities represent the lions share of votes cast in the VA-07.

Online surveys indicate that the one of the issues that put Delegate Nick Freitas on the defensive with suburban voters was the manner in which Spanberger used "preexisting conditions" and an "autism vote" to characterize Freitas. Spanberger raised over 4 million dollars and used these resources against Freitas in repeated ad campaigns and online media using the healthcare issues has a focal point.

Following the election in a caucus call, Rep. Spanberger stated that the Democrats "need to not ever use the term socialist or socialism ever again" and that the messaging regarding "defunding the police" nearly cost Spanberger the race in 2020. The comments illustrate the differences between Spanberger and the progressives in the Democrat Party and actually puts her at odds with many Virginia Democrats in Richmond. There is some suspicion that the Spanberger team leaked the audio from the caucus call given the team recognizes that 2022 may be in jeopardy for her if a Biden administration is directed by the progressives in Washington.

On the Republican side, many are already seeking Delegate Freitas to run again in 2022 given the tightness of the race but in evaluating the trends and metrics this may not actually be the best course of action for RPV given Freitas has now lost a U.S. Senate statewide primary and a Congressional race  within last two years.  Scott Taylor (R) sought to take back his seat lost in 2018 forgoing a U.S. Senate run and failed to win the VA-02 last week. 

In examining the House races that the GOP won in 2020, it is Republican women that seem to outperform expectations.  Two examples were winners Nicole Malliotakis (R) in NY-11 and Maria Salazar in FL-27.Given the makeup of the Virginia suburbs and the rising trends of women and minority owned businesses in suburban Richmond, the RPV needs to evaluate these metrics to ensure that any candidate has appeal to this metric.

The fact remains that any Republican nominated in the VA-07 in 2022 would likely win most of the rural districts. These voters must turnout in 2022 of course but the GOP must have a candidate that can appeal to at least 46% of the suburban electorate or the RPV to flip VA-07. How the RPV responds to a typical decline in turnout after a Presidential election will certainly be something to keep and eye on with its new Chairman in Rich Anderson.

The reason for this is that the Democrats increased its turnout but not its voting percentages compared to the Republicans. Only in Goochland and Powhatan did Spanberger raise her "rural" percentage  and it was by less than a percent. While this should concern the Democrats if the GOP can turnout voters in 2022 should Biden finally get certified as the winner, the Democrats will continue to focus on the suburban vote that has delivered Spanberger two elections in a row now. In back to back cycles, Spanberger has only won two counties out of ten in the district.

Concerning for the RPV is the following areas in "rural" Virginia that Del. Nick Freitas under performed Trump: (Trump/Freitas)

Amelia County  68.29%  (67.38)

Louisa County 60.66%  (60.07)

Nottoway County 56.89%  (55.10)

Powhatan County 71.24% (70.62)

Orange County 59.91%  (59.73%)

There is a question in terms of Democratic turnout if the election was a referendum on Trump in truth or support for Biden. Places like Louisa County which appears to be moving move with VA-05 counties in terms of trends saw an increase of about 2,500 Democratic voters over 2018  and Spanberger in 2020 outperformed Clinton by 4 points. Spanberger outperformed Clinton (34.83%) with 40.81% in 2020 adding 2,000 voters from 2016 in support for her campaign. Orange County experienced almost an identical result where Clinton earned 34.50% and Spanberger earned 40.08% in 2020. Spanberger took advantage of almost two thousand more Democratic voters over 2016 turnout for Clinton.

A positive for Delegate Freitas was he raised voting percentages in all but two counties; Henrico and Goochland.  It is important to also consider that Freitas (39.18%) under performed in terms of appeal to left leaning districts in terms of margin as State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) 2019 race performance where Dunnavant's 49.14% in Henrico helped her secure victory in a very tight election against Delegate Debra Rodman (D) 50.76% to 49.06%. Freitas did perform very well in established Republican precincts in Henrico but these could not propel him to a county victory where Spanberger won 60.64%.

The question than becomes will the RPV recognize the appeal and the criticisms such leaders as State Amanda Chase seeking the GOP nomination for Governor have launched against Dunnavant's positions though it appears they appeal to more Henrico voters than President Trump, Del.Freitas and Rep. Brat. Supporters of the GOP should also recognize the appeal that rising start Tina Ramirez may have in suburban Richmond in 2022 than Delegate Freitas or Rep. Brat have delivered. One could also argue that Senator Dunnavant (R) has more appeal to suburban voters as well historically and given the rise of Republican women and success at the polls this cannot be understated.

Suburban Turnout VA-07: 2016/2020----will leave you scratching your head

Chesterfield County:  85,045 (Trump) 65,019 (Trump) -

                                   81,074 (Clinton) 79,783 (Biden) -

Henrico County :       59,857 (Trump)  52,184 (Trump) -

                                   93,935 (Clinton) 80,032 (Biden) -

Trump lost voter support in the following counties from 2016 to 2020:

Chesterfield County 48.22% to 44.07%

Goochland County 59.73% to 58.80%

Spotsylvania County 55.25% to 54.84%

Orange County : 60.93% to 59.91%

Culpeper County: 60.08 to 59.05%

Freitas lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 (Brat) to 2020:

Henrico County 40.12% to 39.18%

Goochland County 59.58%- 58.94%

Spanberger (D) raised voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Chesterfield County: 54.09% to 55.03%

Henrico County : 58.67% to 60.64%

Powhatan County: 28.89% to 29.30%

Goochland County: 39.52% to 40.81%

Orange County: 40.07% to 40.08%

Spanberger (D) lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Amelia County: 32.87% to 32.49%

Louisa County: 40.47% to 39.73%

Spotsylvania County: 44.17% to 43.88%

Culpeper County: 40.68% to 39.98%

Nottoway County- 45.05% to 44.72%

All statistical information and voting metrics in this article come from two primary sources that Virginians can review.

1. https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/President_and_Vice_President_(CD_-_07).html

2. vpap.org/visuals/visual/presidential/

Guest Commentator

Jonathan Scott

Is the GOP in Trouble in VA-07?: Henrico County

 

Any analysis of a particular race in Virginia these days often triggers many defense mechanisms. For too long these defense mechanisms have created a situation of denial for the Virginia GOP in which there has been little acknowledgement or change in the party messaging given the changing demographics on the ground in many localities in Virginia.

An objective analysis here based not only historical voting trends, demographics, metrics but also conversations with voters on the ground in Henrico County going into next months Congressional contest in the VA-07.

The VA-07 is an historically a very conservative district in Virginia currently represented by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) elected in 2018 during to so-called "blue wave" election that was the first Congressional cycle following the election of President Trump in 2016.

The Virginia GOP is seeking to unseat Rep. Spanberger and nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) late summer to challenge her via a nominating convention. Freitas was nominated after three rounds of ballots at the convention held in Doswell, Virginia.

I respect Delegate Nick Freitas and find him to be an outstanding Delegate from Culpeper County who is in my opinion one of the best orators on the floor of the Virginia House of Delegates. While Freitas ran in 2018 for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and lost to Corey Stewart (R), I hope that the result of this election does not negatively impact the future of this rising star in the Virginia GOP. Elections always can offer surprises however this cycle is probably one of the most divisive in Virginia history since the Presidential Election of 1860.

Often it is inevitable that "down ballot" candidates can be at the mercy of the Presidential race. One recent factor with independent voters is the takeaway from the first and possibly only Presidential debate last week that many perceived as the worst in debate history.

The coming 2020 Census will certainly reveal even more changes in demographics that have occurred in the last decade in Henrico County, however what is obvious to any political analyst is the the trends on the ground in suburban areas have shifted from supporting Republicans in Virginia overwhelmingly a decade ago to now supporting Democrats in Presidential, Congressional and statewide races for the Virginia Executive.

The Virginia Seventh Congressional District offers us insight into this shift given two of the largest suburban localities in Virginia comprise the majority of voters in the district. Both Chesterfield County and Henrico County were once Republican strongholds in Virginia election history. The latter no longer can be considered a Republican stronghold given the shift in the last decade and the former may shift left as well in the coming cycle.

Understand this. 

Henrico County will determine the winner of the Congressional race in 2020 for the VA-07.

No examination of the race for the VA-07 Congressional seat can ignore what has happened in Henrico County over the last few years politically. Henrico County truly illustrates the ground that the Virginia GOP has lost in suburbia. Many pundits on the right would likely disagree but the voting metrics reveal a very distinct transformation in voting behavior in suburbs the more the Virginia GOP takes extreme positions on social issues and federal immigration policies.  The messaging remains mixed and the perception is that the Virginia GOP does not support immigrants even though the intent was to address "illegal" immigrants. Candidates like Corey Stewart and State Senator Amanda Chase have alienated many immigrants according to many residents in the VA-07.

What has contributed to this shift in voting trends?

The biggest factor is clearly the demographic change that Henrico with roughly 330,000 residents has experienced over the last decade. 

One of the changes is that there are now more women living in Henrico now representing 52%+ of the population. A population now has a growing non-white population where the Blacks represent 30%, Asians 10% and Hispanics now 7%. This constitutes an estimated 47% of the population in Henrico.

The GOP nationally is facing declines in support from women and immigrant groups. Some political analysts and firms that track such polling data have estimated that the GOP is now -34% with women and -19% with immigrant populations. Whether one agrees with such analysis or not the metrics of this are playing out at the polls and is demonstrated in the correlation in the decline of Republican support in Henrico in the last few election cycles.

Henrico by any estimation is an affluent locality. 18% of population has a post graduate degree and 52% of the population as at least some college or a college degree. These metrics represent 10% higher than the Virginia averages.

Another relevant factor in 2020 is the rising 16% of the population that is 65+. This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP and the Nick Freitas campaign because national polling is demonstrating that President Trump is losing support of seniors dramatically compared to 2016. 

One of the biggest metrics now in Henrico in terms of elections is the fact that 13.5% of the population is now "foreign born". This is a huge issue for the Virginia GOP on the coat tails of the Corey Stewart 2018 campaign for U.S. Senate and the current campaign for the GOP nomination for Governor by Amanda Freeman Chase for 2021. The GOP has steadily lost support in the immigrant community since 2013 after earning a large share of it in 2009.  The majority of immigrants coming to Henrico are from Asia (55%) and Latin America (23%) followed by Europe (12%) and Africa (9%). There appears little outreach efforts thus far from the Republican Party of Virginia this cycle to appeal to the immigrant communities throughout Virginia.

The factor that appears to have not drawn virtually any messaging from the GOP and specifically the Nick Freitas campaign is that the majority of new business start-ups have come from women and "foreign born" Virginians in Henrico. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis has directly impacted many of these business yet there appears to be very little mention of how President Trump's actions have supported the business communities whether lower corporate taxes or stimulus provisions to support small business. Rep. Spanberger has leveraged thus far the actions of Congress in terms of the first stimulus to her own ends in touting support for small business.

An example of the Spanberger pitch:

"For 2 years, I’ve worked to be a strong voice in Congress on the issues that impact people’s daily lives in #VA07. -Lowering the cost of prescription drugs -Expanding broadband internet access -Recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic"

Freitas is a Army veteran and 6.3% of the Henrico population are veterans with the overwhelming majority having served in Vietnam and the Gulf War 1990's. Recent polling has demonstrated weaker support from veterans in 2020 for Trump than in 2016 and this should be a real concern as well for the Freitas campaign. Rep. Scott Taylor is experiencing the same dynamic in his challenge for his old seat in the VA-02 comprising the Virginia Beach region.

The median income for residents of Henrico is roughly 68,000. This is a factor that should play well for the Freitas campaign however there has been very little messaging regarding the Trump tax cuts thus far from the campaign that certainly benefited a majority of residents living in Henrico. Instead the majority of the messaging thus far has targeted Rep. Abigail Spanberger's (D) voting record in Congress the last two years and her alignment with some of the most liberal in the House of Representatives.

What is interesting is the continued attempted links to Speaker of House Pelosi and the Spanberger voting record and the assertion that Spanberger is not as "moderate" or "blue dog" as she campaigns compared to when she is voting in Washington appears to be an extension of similar messaging that failed Rep. David Brat (R) in 2018. Spanberger in truth does not appear to have a very "moderate" record at all however the message does not appear to resonate with many voters in the manner in which it is asserted.

Thus far the approach appears to be a strategy set on "voting against" Spanberger as opposed to "voting for" Nick Freitas. The issue with this approach in talking with voters in Henrico  is that while the Presidential election very well may be a "referendum" election on Trump, many voters do not see this Congressional election in the VA-07 as a "referendum" on Spanberger. Spanberger like Freitas is very lpersonable nd likeable figure when you speak with people whom have met both of them

I recently had the opportunity to speak with some voters from Henrico where my wife lived for a time and what is rather interesting is the amount of split voting that may occur next month among independent voters that thus far is not showing up in any polling. It is estimated that roughly 14% of voters nationally are independent voters and these voters are often less concerned with "policy" per say as many other voters. They are not partisans by any means and many have voted for Democrats as many times as Republicans. Many for example supported Trump in 2016 yet supported Democrats in 2017 for Delegates representing Henrico in the Virginia General Assembly. These very seats have all flipped the last decade to the Democrats in the county.

What has to be  (or should be) alarming to the Virginia GOP is the steep decline in support for Republican candidates in Henrico County.

Out of a population of 330,000 some 105,000 voters turned out in 2018 at the polls in the last Congressional race for the VA-07. Spanberger won Henrico County 60.96% to 36.89% over Rep. David Brat (R).

In 2016 Rep. David Brat had won the county with 50.77% of the vote but came in -14% cycle over cycle. There are some reasons of course in examining the decline in support for the GOP candidates  however not one more meaningful than redistricting. The GOP used to have the support of Hanover County precincts to the tune of 70% in the years that Rep. Eric Cantor (R) held the seat when the GOP dominated the VA-07 at the polls.

In statewide races Henrico shifted from support of statewide and national Republicans to Democratic candidates where it once supported the likes of Bob McDonnell (R) for Governor in 2009 but by 2013 had started to shift to the left at the polls. Governor Terry McAuliffe decimated Republicans in 2013 with an astounding 51.2% to 38% over Ken Cuccinelli. Subsequent candidates from the GOP have met similar fate though Brat did win in an off cycle election in 2014 with 55% of the vote. 

If we examine Rep. David Brat's performance in VA-07 after defeating Rep.Eric Cantor (R) in an historic primary with the support of the Tea Party the movement quickly fizzled out and was reabsorbed back into into the GOP much to the dismay of many within it. Thus from 2014 where Brat earned 55%  in Henrico he declined to 50.77% in 2016 and ultimately 36.89%. Overall throughout the VA-07 in 2018 Brat earned 48.40%  some 12 points better than he performed in Henrico.

What is interesting when speaking to Henrico County voters when one canvasses or speaks to residents is that there is still support for some local Republicans. State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant withheld a challenge in 2019 by Delegate Debra Rodman (D) who she defeated 50.76% to 49.06%. Much of this can be attributed to the Hanover precincts that remain in the VA-12 Senate District that no longer are part of the VA-07 Congressional. 

Dunnavant outperformed both President Trump and Rep. David Brat in heavily "red" precincts and many of them by four to six basis points.

Lets examine a few precincts that will impact the 2020 Congressional race for the GOP:

103: Glen Allen

2012 : 61.95 (Cantor) 2016 : 60.38 (Brat) 2016:  49% Trump 2018:  48.57 (Brat) 2019:  Dunnavant 54.37

302: Cedarfield

2012: 64% (Cantor)  2016: 62% (Brat)   2016: 50% (Trump)  2018: 51% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 57%

403: Derbyshire

2012: 69% (Cantor)   2016: 66% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 55% (Brat)  2019: Dunnavant 60%

417: Tuckahoe

2012: 72% (Cantor)   2016: 69% (Brat)   2016: 54% (Trump)  2018: 56% (Brat)  2019  Dunnavant  65%

These are heavily conservative leaning precincts and illustrate that even among these districts there have been shifts metrics wise over last decade.

Some other races to consider: Henrico supported the following-

Hillary Clinton (D) 2016- 57%

Governor Ralph Northam (D) 2017 52%

U.S Senator Tim Kaine (D) 2018 57%

Now worth consideration for supporters of the Virginia GOP to consider is that the two Republican candidates that have outperformed all other GOP candidates are:

State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R)  2019 50.76%

Jill Vogel (Lt. Governor Candidate) 2017 50%

Republicans must overcome the denial of the trends on the ground in suburbia that Henrico illustrate. The two women representing the GOP on ballots in Henrico County recently are the very two Republicans that the State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase wing of the party ( Cuccinelli, Stewart, Brat) have railed against and attempted to label as "Liberal Republicans" or  "Establishment" yet it appears these State Senators appeal to voters and know how to appeal to voters via dedicated messaging that speaks to families in the suburbs. Another is Lt. Governor Bill Bolling from Hanover that pulled in 56.29% of the vote across Virginia in 2009 and has become a target of the Chase campaign in recent weeks rehashing the 2013 race in which Bolling withdrew and AG Ken Cuccinelli supported by Chase won the nomination and ultimately lost to Governor Terry McAuliffe (D).

Given the trends on the ground and the historical metrics, the Virginia GOP and Delegate Nick Freitas appear in real trouble even in the wake of over reach by the Virginia State Legislature in the last year and an aggressive GOTV effort for GOP supporters.

I anticipate the following results next month in the VA-07 UNLESS messaging changes in the next three weeks----for example have yet to see a single Spanish ad this cycle or heard one on the radio thus far from Freitas ( if anyone has please comment below so I may locate it). 6% of the population speaks Spanish as primary language in the home in Henrico and there is a significant rising population in Spotsylvania and Chesterfield Counties. This something that Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) used effectively in 2009 yet the consultant trend in the GOP is to not spend in this area it seems the last few cycles. A correlation can be drawn directly to this lack of focus to the declining trend in Hispanic support for Virginia GOP statewide and Congressional candidates.

Important to note: 

2016 Trump won VA-07 51.14% to 43.30%

Amelia County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Chesterfield County: (113,000 voters) Spanberger

Culpeper County: (20,000 voters) Freitas

Goochland County: (13,000 voters) Freitas

Henrico County:(105,000 voters) Spanberger

Louisa County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Nottoway County: (6,000 voters) Freitas

Orange County: (16,000 voters) Freitas

Powhatan County; (18,000 voters) Freitas

Spotsylvania County: (38,000 voters) Freitas 

I expect Delegate Nick Freitas to win every rural locality in the VA-07 which all lean Conservative however I expect Rep. Abigail Spanberger to win re-election because she will will hold serve in both Henrico County and Chesterfield County she won in 2018. Spanberger easily wins Henrico County however Chesterfield while very tight race in 2016 between Trump and Clinton with Trump only winning the historically conservative Chesterfield by less than 1% supported Spanberger two years later in 2018 by 10 points.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott

Aliscia Andrews: Rising Star in Virginia GOP

 

Jonathan Scott

Guest Contributor

There are very few conservative candidates who have impressed me more the last few election cycles in Virginia than Tina Ramirez (VA7) and Aliscia Andrews the Republican nominee in the Virginia Tenth Congressional District. Both ladies are first time Republican candidates that determined to seek the nomination to challenge Democratic Congresswoman and are rising stars in the Virginia GOP.

Tina Ramirez's candidacy in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District fell short as the convention nominated Delegate Nick Freitas (R) who has run a few local races as well as a statewide primary race against Corey Stewart in 2018 for U.S. Senate in which he lost. The story with Rameriz very similar with Andrews in that very few gave either a chance to win the nomination especially given both were nominating conventions. Conventions in Virginia tend to produce the most entrenched interest of nominees and often through rather suspicious means. Ramirez  finished behind Freitas in balloting but performed extraordinary for a first time Congressional candidate with limited resources. Andrews, a Marine veteran and a a contractor with Department of Homeland Security path to the nomination was one of precision campaigning.

Aliscia Andrews had only 27% after the first round of balloting at the VA10 Convention. Most never gave Andrews much of a chance going into the convention however far too many underestimated to level of retail campaigning and relationship building she dedicated herself to throughout the campaign. After speaking with many participants in the convention many stated that while Andrews was not their first choice they respected the fact that she was always gracious and engaging and ran a very respectful campaign when it came to the other challengers. This in the end was the difference in getting her nominated.

The expected winner was Rob Jones. Jones in fact won the first two rounds of balloting securing 31% in the first round than 34% in the second. Andrews increased her votes to 33% in the second round after Jeffery Dove was removed from contention. By the third round it was down to Jones and Andrews after Matt Troung was removed after the second round where he earned 32% just one percent less than Andrews. In the third and final round Andrews defeated Jones 57-42%.

Andrews has been running a dedicated "WEXIT" campaign focused on defeating Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) in November. Andrews rarely concentrated any time focused on fellow potential nominees and stayed laser focused on speaking to voters (delegates) on how to unseat Wexton. "Wexit" is a play on the "Vexit" movement that popped up where some counties in Virginia have been courted by West Virginia to join it given they resemble West Virginia more than Virginia culturally and politically. Many Virginians in rural and mountain areas no longer see Richmond as relating to them and their lifestyles let alone respecting it. 

The VA10 represents all of Clarke, Frederick and Loudoun Counties in western Northern Virginia and incldues Winchester, Manassas, Manassas Park and parts of Fairfax and Prince William Counties.

Jennifer Wexton (D-V10) similar to Abigail Spanbeger (D-VA7) was elected during the so-called "blue wave" of 2018. Wexton defeated Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock(R) while Spanberger defeated Rep. David Brat (R). Both were successful in winning the suburban vote especially that of women. Wexton won Fairfax by 18 points over Comstock very similarly as Spanberger won Henrico County in suburban Richmond by the same margin. Whereas Spanberger only won two localities in the VA7 and won, Wexton five localities outright and one within 1% margin.

Andrews likely will win Clarke and Frederick County however will need to make major inroads in my childhood home in Loudoun County. Fairfax is strong Wexton country and the  urban areas of Manassas and Manassas Park are very Democratic with heavy immigrant demographics that have been supporting Virginia Demcorats the last few cycles in mass. Loudoun was once a strong "red" county but has seen  shift with the massive growth of the federal government and the growth that it has experienced resulting in a shift towards the left just like Fairfax experienced decades before.

Andrews however carries none of the "establishment" baggage that Wexton used effectively against Comstock so it will be interesting to see how the Wexton campaign plays things and whether it will simply run against Trump given its a Presidential cycle. Trump lost the VA10 by seven points in 2016 and performed roughly the same as Comstock in Loudoun County.

Having lived in both the counties of Loudoun and Chesterfield the two are very similar and will determine the outcomes of both Congressional races this November. Chesterfield is following the same journey politically as Loudoun as it to is now moving to the left at the polls in statewide elections though still supporting GOP candidates locally.

Andrews like Rameriz will not be defined by the outcomes of this race as both have already far exceeded any expectation most had with regard to their campaigns. 

New Facebook Candidate Discussion Group Formed

The Covid-19 crisis has left most of us all at home of course and the new craze is of course zoom and all the new ways in which we all staying connected. Life however goes on and the thought process after weeks of deliberation is to move away from "echo chambers" and develop new means of discussion where people could voice concerns on issues and polices, seek answers to questions they may have regarding conventions, primaries or just elections in general. Things like the absentee balloting process and other areas related to elections but also all the candidates.

2020 Virginia has all of its Congressional seats on the ballot and one U.S. Seante seat.

Do you know who those are running for the nominations?

This group intends to introduce everyone to the candidates and often in their own words now that videos have become immensely popular.

"We are forming a new discussion group regarding all the candidates in Virginia for 2020-21. Hope you will join the group and provide insight and opinion on any of those on Virginia ballots in 2020-21"

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

The Need for Dollars Makes for Strange Alliances

                      Does the Republican Party of Virginia need a complete overhaul?

In 2018, The Virginia GOP lost seats in Congress in historically right-leaning districts and then in 2019 lost control of the majority in Richmond. The Republicans have failed to control the Executive in Virginia since  election of 2009.

As it stands, the 2020 crop of Republican candidates are an impressive combination of diversity. This diversity however does that appear to be something that the Republican Party of Virginia seeks to highlight or use to change the narrative regarding the party that is constantly being portrayed by the opposition as non-inclusive. This diversity should be the very thing that the Party highlights in its campaigns to change the image of the Party that the Virginia Democrats have owned for the last decade.

The Republican Party of Virginia has not recovered in truth from the optic disaster of Charlottesville in 2017 placed sqaure at its foot and President Trump's. It has ceded the narrative to the Virginia Democrats crafted by former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) that that event was representative of the Virginia GOP. Few arguments were made of course  by the GOP in large part due to the fact that party consultants feared alienating those groups that ultimately would be funding campaigns with contributions. Something proving harder to come by.

One thing is clear is there is no unifying message with the Virginia GOP from the top down. Each campaign underway in 2020 appears to have its own identity while having to contend with a heavily funded message coming from Virginia Democrats seeking to hold the gains won in 2018. It further does not help that the messaging coming out of the campaign for the only declared Republican for Governor in 2021 at the same time is taking shots at the GOP Leadership on a weekly basis unwittingly doing the Demcorats job for them. It recently even took a shot at former Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (R).

It also does little help to any of the 2020 Congressional candidates that the only Republican declared thus far for the Governor's race next year is aligning with the very alt right groups behind Charlottesville in 2017. Reviewing the official pages of those running for Congress and the declared candidate for Governor it is easy to identify that the Virginia GOP has real issues centered around identity. While the Congressional candidates are speaking to policy, the Chase for Governor campaign is speaking to divisions and blame. The latest fundraising efforts of the latter are targeting fringe groups of the alt right for support and the old Corey Stewart coalition of hard liners who can only be described as nativists. Some have claimed that Chase is forming a "Tactical Vest" Army.

Its a dictomy that is lost on the lone GOP candidate for Governor. While the Congressional candidates in places like the Virginia 10th need to attract support from minorities, immigrants and suburban women, the Chase for Governor campaign is alienating them by the week. It is clear that the Chase for Governor campaign has made a strategic determination not to condemn the alt right groups but instead fundraise off them. This in effect places the entire Republican platform in 2020 in jeapardy.

The initial contribution reporting likely will demonstrate the small donor base of the Chase for Governor campaign thus far in 2020 and while the campaign very well may characterize it as a grassroots support the devil will be in the true details concerning where those donations are coming from. Known alt groups on social media are aligning with the messaging of the Chase for Governor campaign.

The impact of the divisions with the Virignia GOP will not really be fully understood until November. Losses by Congressional candidates will simply just embolden those that support Chase and her campaign by misunderstanding they have contributed to the very losses due to poor alignment with those seeking Congressional seats.

Aliscia Andrews (R) is one such Virginian running for the nomination in the Virginia 10th to face Jennifer Wexton (D) who defeated Barabara Comstock (R) in 2018. Andrews is a former Marine and has a strong Second Amendment supporter base but her base in the 2A movement is not the fringe alt right that often times may align with it. Andrews supporters are Constitution loving Virginians; not anarchists. There is a difference. The 2A movement is much broader than how it has been characterized in the media. Its more than merely those that will rally in tactical gear and armed. Its farmers, hunters, rural families and countless others in Virginia that simply want to get back to embracing liberty and freedom. These Virginians are not alt right wingers or Corey Stewart followers. This is easily demonstrated in the results of the 2018 Virginia Senate race in which Stewart lost handily to Tim Kaine (D) by almost 600,000 votes. Four years prior Republican Ed Gillespie lost to Senator Mark Warner by less than 20,000 votes in 2014.

Does the Republican Party of Virginia want to repeat that performance in 2021? Does it wish to suffer a third straight Executive "trifecta" loss in Virginia? This summer will be a critical crossroad for the Virignia GOP. It must prove to Virginians that it can pivot.

Chas(e)ing the Nomination in Virginia: State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R)

Seeking to capitalize on the growing level of "Virginia Populism" all across the Commonwealth of Virginia, State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) has announced her intention to run for the Republican nomination for Governor of Virginia four months ago on the steps of the State Capital.

Discussions here Chase for Governor: https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

Senator Chase announced her intentions on Monday standing on the historic steps of the Virginia State Capital on the very afternoon that the Virginia Senate Judiciary Committee voted down one of the most radical, extremist gun control measures ever introduce in Virginia political history. House Bill 961 that was sponsored in the Virginia House of Delegates by Progressive Delegate Mark Levine representing the 45th House District located in Arlington and Alexandria. HB 961 in effect would ban all "assault" style weapons or as Delegate characterizes as "weapons of war" as well as any and all sale of magazines that could hold twelve rounds or more of ammunition. Possession of these items would constitute a felony.

House Bill 961 was simply a similar version of Senate Bill 16 sponsored by Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw of Fairfax County that the Senator had pulled from consideration thus avoiding any debate on the matter in the Senate. Instead, Virginia Democrats in Richmond used the Levine Bill as a vehicle in the House first and then reviewed in committee by the Senate. The bill failed in committee 10-5 after four Democrats moved right and joined Republicans in opposition.

During the Campaign of 2019, Amanda Freeman Chase was one of the very few Republicans who did not run away from President Trump. Chase defeated a heavily funded challenger afer which Chase decided to no longer caucus with the Republican Party.

This means in effect Chase really is not recognized nor treated as a GOP legislator and does not meet with the others in the caucus nor is part of the communication. Chase was stripped of all her previous committee assignments save one once the Democrats took control. Chase in essence is a island in the Virginia Senate like Sander's in the U.S. Senate who in truth is an independent not a Democrat. Chase has done little to reunite with the GOP in 2020 and recent statements from the GOP appear to illustrate hat they remain unsupportive of her .

Chase's decision was made when the Republican leadership that lost control of the majority of both chambers in the Virginia General Assembly for the first time in almost two decades remained intact post election. The Republicans determined in effect to continue with "business as usual". The Leadership had failed to understand just how poor the messaging was in 2019 and determined to run the campaigns in the same manner they always had while the Democrats had evolved and implemented new innovative campaign mechanisms and infrastructure.

One other major factor little reported by the media is the failure of the Republican leadership to even fund the re-election bid of Senator Amanda Freeman Chase. While supporting other Republican Senate candidates the leadership chose not to assist Chase in her efforts. There were even rumors in early 2019 that the leadership was attempting to find someone to primary Senator Chase in a Republican primary. Chase had defeated long time friend of the leadership in Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary before the 2015 election cycle. The Chase victory in that primary came has as one of the most historic local races and only surpassed in Virginia politics by Congressman David Brat's upset of them Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R) in a Congressional Republican primary.

If you examine the campaign contributions in 2019 amidst one of the most heated political campaign seasons in thew history of Virginia, it is clear that the Republican leadership was unwilling to provide the level of support to Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that leadership provided others. Some have attempted to argue that this was a direct result of polling throughout the campaign that indicated that Chase had at least a four point lead in her race as late as August 2019, however it was after this polling that the Republican Party of Virginia in fact made several contributions in the amount beginning in September through October totally seventy seven thousand. That being said, the leadership and Senate political action committees failed to support Chase at all while supporting multiple other Republican candidates,

State Senators right next door to Chase's district in both the 10th and 12th  were provided support via the  Republican Party of Virginia and received enormous support from Republican State Leadership Committee and the Virginia Senate Republican Caucus. In fact Senate Majority Leader Thomas "Tommy" Norment's Senate Leadership/Candidate Committee failed to support Chase yet made heavy contributions in the districts next door to Chase's.

These are the facts relating to the level that the State GOP failed to support Senator Amanda Freeman Chase:

The Norment for Senate committee supported Senator Dunnavant VA12 with 231,00 and Senator Sturtevant VA10 with 709,750. Zero for Chase.

The Republican State Leadership Committee contributed 345,000 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 631,957. Zero for Chase.

The Virginia Senate Republican Caucus contributed 460,500 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 591,059. Zero for Chase.

**Dunnavant would win her re-election bid by about 1% over Delegate Debra Rodman while Sturtevant lost his seat in the Senate by 9 points**

There is little indication that the Va GOP will support Chase in 2021 thus far.

Many Virginians  following Chase's lead have grown very suspicious of Senator Dunnavant who in 2020 General Assembly session appeared to betray the contingent of Second Amendment supporters that campaigned on her behalf and supported her in Hanover County which is were the precincts that thrust her to re-election. Many supporters now on social media have flooded groups with buyers remorse given Dunnavant has cast votes that her challenger in 2019 very well would have cast.

The questions regarding the failure to support Senator Chase are rampant on social media. Chase supporters have become enraged at the Republican Party and the failure of leadership to contribute last November merely double downed on constituent suspicions of the State GOP that resulted after Senator Chase resigned from the Chesterfield County Republican Committee over committee rules relating to membership being required to support/endorse any GOP nominee within the county. Chase failed to endorse a GOP nominee in Karl Leonard for Sheriff instead opting for another option thus alienating herself from her own local committee.

Nevertheless and without any true party support, Senator Amanda Freeman Chase won re-election in 2019 by about nine points over Progressive Amanda Pohl. The race for the seat was one of the most contentious on social media in 2019. One thing that supporters love about Chase is her determination to never back down in a fight. This character trait has never bode well for the "good ole boy" establishment which  behind the scenes has always wish to in effect silence Chase who never seemed capable in their eyes of staying in line with the leadership.

The division between leadership and Chase intensified following the 2019 election. Given nothing according to Chase was addressed by the leadership with regard to the lost majority, Chase walked away. The Republicans would keep the status quo even after the leadership failed to keep control of the Assembly and failed to advance true conservative agendas in the 2019 Assembly session. In fact, the leadership remained quiet regarding Governor Northam's racist "blackface" circumstance as well as Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax had sexual assault allegations levied against him by two women from his own party. Republicans sat on their hands. Failed to push for investigation by committees in the Assembly they controlled. Meanwhile, Republicans all over Virginia sat watching the House of Representatives in Congress levy investigation after investigation against President Trump.

While  Chase never ran away from Trump in 2019 many others did. Nor did she shy away from calling out Governor Northam and Lt. Governor Fairfax and the Democratic hypocrisy relating to those politicians. Chase won handlily in a pro-Trump 2016 district in 2019.

The announcement to run for Governor in 2021 certainly raises Senator Amanda Freeman Chase's profile across Virginia but it also highlights the beginning of a splintering of the Republican Party of Virginia at large. Chase has an ability to speak to those that are frustrated with the State GOP and there is certainly a new coalition forming. The movement mirrors that of the Tea Party Movement back in 2010-12 in Virginia and the Republican leadership should take notice.


It has been Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that has been leading much of the opposition. Chase recently was scolded by Senator Janet Howell (D) of Fairfax County for using her social media to communicate Assembly business to Virginians. The truth is the transparency is not something that either leadership in the Assembly prefer but Chase has determined to deliver it. Chase has in effect made political enemies on both sides of the aisle. Chase asserted that anyone in the Assembly supporting such draconian measures like red flag laws could only be characterized as "traitors to Virginia". Howell's response has been to see to it that Amanda Freeman Chase's sponsored bills have been shelved.

The response by Senator Howell is indicative of the manner in which the new majority is conducting business in the Virginia General Assembly. Supporters of Chase were quick to point out that Howell ultimately was disenfranchising representation of Virginians that live in the Virginia 11th by not permitting the bills sponsored by Chase in committee for consideration.  These tactics may be acceptable in Fairfax County by its overwhelming Democrat majority but all across Virginia this is not how the "Peoples House" is supposed to work and how Virginia business is to be conducted. Howell actually has fueled even grater opposition to her Party and contributed to the awakening that is underway going into the elections of 2020 this Fall.

 

VA07 GOP Primary Contenders 

There is little doubt that Chase will be out this Summer.There is some uncertainty whether the State GOP leadership will get behind Trump this summer. Trump lost Virginia to Hillary Clinton in 2016 but won many of the Congressional Districts like the Virginia 7th held by Democrat Abigail Spanberger since 2018.  Spanberger appears vulnerable for the Democrats in 2020 as Spanberger supported impeachment, supports gun control measures pushed in Richmond and failed to support a pay raise for the military through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in Congress. Spanberger will need support of Chesterfield County in the 2020 Election. As it stands today, Tina Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs appear to be the front runners for the GOP nomination to face Abigail Spanberger however Nick Freitas is gaining ground and funding.

The 2021 Governor's race is almost twenty one months away so Senator Chase has amble time to form her own coalition while building bridges of support with others in the upcoming 2020 Election all across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Chase would be wise to campaign across Virginia in 2020 and connect with other areas of the Commonwealth. Supporters have already taking to social media to drive her brand and raise her identification across the state. A facebook group was created in late January called "Chase for Governor 2021" and already has over eleven thousand members and growing.

Follow here on social media tot stay informed.

https://www.facebook.com/TurnVARedAgain/   The Conservative State

https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/999287823791649/

Richmond Suburbia to Determine Outcome in 2020 Virginia 7th Congressional Race

There can be no argument that President Trump has tremendous support in the Virginia 7th Congressional District. Trump won the district by eight basis points and as it stands today if turnout in opposition to impeachment and Virginia gun control legislation is any indication that support is growing.

Rep. Abigail Spanbeger (D) the current holder of the VA07 seat is on record of being "all in" on gun control legislation and in support of impeachment of President Trump. Recent town halls with constituents have demonstrated there is increasing opposition to Spanberger's positions on both but make no mistake Spanberger is a very calculating politician and is playing to her suburban base.

Join in discussion here at Chasing Victory in Virginia: https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/

In 2018 the primary method  for U.S Senate selected Corey Stewart over Del. Nick Freitas and E.W. Jackson. The primary method was selected by the Virginia Republican Party State Central Committee. Stewart won the primary with 44.87% whereas Freitas earned 43.14%. Important to Freitas is the fact the majority of support for his Senate bid came from Central Virginia precincts that are included in the Virginia 7th Congressional District.

Nick Freitas won re-election in the Virginia 30th House District after having missed the filing deadline and having to run as a write-in candidate. While Freitas has latched on the 2A Gun Sanctuary movement as a means of elevating his profile given his recent declaration to run for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Spanberger for the VA-07 seat.

Here is some of the history in the VA-07:

David Brat (R) defeated Eric Cantor(R) in 2014 primary in the VA07 even though Cantor spent over 6 million dollars. Brat won the primary by just over ten points winning 55.55% to 44.45%. Brat went on to defeat the Democrat nominee Jack Trammell but earnjing 60% of the vote in the VA07. Brat was not primaried in 2016 and won handily in 2016 defeating Eileen Bedell with 57% of the vote.

In 2018, Abigail Spanberger won the Democrat nomination to face David Brat (R). Spanberger earned over 70% of the primary vote and would go on to defeat incumbent David Brat (R) in November 2018 50.34% to 48.40%.

It is important to note the while Democrats like to throw around the word "legitimate" the fact remains that Spanberger does not defeat David Brat (R) without the 2016 redistricting of the VA07. Redistricting removed Hanover precincts from the VA07 that had supported Republicans in prior elections by almost 70%.

For example in 2014, David Brat (R) earned over 26,000 votes in Hanover County and won the County with 69.52% of the vote. In 2016 the Hanover voters were removed from the VA07. Brat still defeated his challenger in 2016  but with about four points less of a margin. In 2018, Spanberger would defeat Brat by two basis points.

In 2016 Henrico County which had long been a Republican bell weather began to shift politically as the suburban county continued to grow with younger families and first time home buyers. In 2016 the race for the seat was a virtual dead heat between Brat and Bedell. Brat won Henrico with 50.77%.

Things would drastically change for Brat in 2018 in Henrico. Losing the support of the Hanover precincts would finally catch up with the Republicans as in 2018 Spanberger would carry Henrico by eighteen points with 58.57% of the vote with about five thousand less voters turning out than in 2016 which was Presidential year but almost forty thousand more voters than the election of 2014 that saw Brat win Henrico County by ten thousand votes.

So in 2014 Brat won Henrico County by ten thousand votes and in 2016 won  by about one thousand votes. In 2018, Rep. Abigail Spanberger literally decimated Republican in her home county of Henrico by twenty thousand votes.

20,000.

Spanberger base of support is predominately Henrico and Chesterfield. Henrico has not formally endorsed a real gun sanctuary resolution whereas Chesterfield County recently adopted one. While supporting Spanberger in 2018, Chesterfield recently elected a Republican Board of Supervisors and Republican members to both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates. Henrico County remains dominated by Democrat officials in the Assembly with the exception of State Senator Dunnavant (R).

The road to victory in the Virginia 7th Congressional District will be determined in Henrico County in 2020. David Brat (R) defeated Rep. Abigail Spanberger in every county in 2018 except Henrico County (-18pts) and Chesterfield(-10pts). Clearly Spanberger's advantage in the VA-07 is the suburban vote outside Richmond.

One important development though for Republicans is State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) representing Henrico County held her seat last November when the Virginia Democrats secured majority of that body. Dunnavant won with 50.76%. Dunnavant has transitioned herself to being a moderate and has been taking serious criticisms of late by conservative Republicans regarding her voting thus far in the 2020 General Assembly. Furthermore, Dunnavant ran away from President Trump during her campaigning in 2019.

The question remains which of the Republican potential nominees could secure enough support in the suburbia to offset the Spanberger base. Republican turnout is poised to be historic in the rural communities in large part due to recent actions taken by the Democrat controlled Virginia Assembly. Every county other than Henrico has taken up a gun sanctuary resolution in response to the Democrat extremism in Richmond. Increasing the turnout in the rural areas of the VA-07 will only better serve the prospects of defeating Spanberger given the narrow victory she had in 2018.

The biggest influence regarding turnout however will be President Trump. Having Trump on the ballot should have a direct impact on the ability for Republicans to turnout voters to support the nominee. Recently, all potential nominees for the Republican Party challenge have pledged to support whoever secure the nomination at the Virginia 7th Congressional District Convention.

Many Virginians would prefer to see Delegate Nick Freitas remain in the Assembly and run for Governor of Virginia in 2021. Currently the only two Republican officials that appear to be raising their profiles are Frietas and State Senator Amanda Chase(R). Supporters of Chase have already created a facebook group for supporting her potential candidacy for Governor. Chase currently has been the most vocal opponent of Governor Northam and the Democrats in Richmond and has in fact called for the recall of the Governor.

While Freitas has some name recognition resulting from his U.S. Senate bid, Tina Ramirez another potential nominee had out fund raised all others in the race at start of 2020. Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs offer voters very different backgrounds and the depth of the pool of candidates this cycle is very promising. The field is full of veterans and those working in government and outside advancing freedom and liberty.

https://www.defense.gov/Our-Story/Biographies/Biography/Article/1351000/andrew-f-knaggs/

Andrew Knaggs is graduate of the United States Military Academy and the former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Combating Terrorism. Knaggs served as a Army Special Forces and served in Iraq. Both Delegates Freitas and John McGuire are veterans as well. Freitas served in the U.S. Army and McGuire was a Navy Seal.

The Convention in March (now July) will determine the nominee to face Spanberger and Delegates should consider that victory will certainly go through Richmond suburbia and any candidate selected will have to resonate much better than David Brat (R) in 2018. The campaign must also be run in a very coordinated manner in order to bite into the eighteen point deficiency that occurred in 2018 in Henrico County.

J.Scott