Former U.S. House Speaker Tip O'Neill (D-MA) is often cited as coining the old political phrase "all politics is local" though the phrasing of such though often times different can be traced back long before 1982 in U.S. politics.
Virginians would like to believe that politics in 2021 is still mostly "local" but the truth is politics is getting less and less local by the cycle and this should alarm all Virginians.
The power of local politics is undeniable when it is in fact yielded by voters however the more polarizing the forces of the establishment media and political class become and the more they work in concert with one another the more voters retreat in apathy for the process.
Citizen engagement is often feared by the political class when it is coming from forces it has little control over or cannot yield. For example, Virginia Democrats approved of the citizen engagement last year fueled by riots and looting because it served a purpose for them and their "social justice" anti-white narratives however more recently they vehemently opposed citizen engagement when Virginia parents began to push back on educational issues in classrooms and schools overall. Virginia Democrats also demonstrated objection to citizen engagement when it supported using emergency powers to prevent rallies from being organized and held in Richmond that advocated freedoms that Virginia Democrats clearly oppose.
Control is of course the ultimate goal of political insiders and the political establishment itself.
This is very evident in "conventions" orchestrated to "control" outcomes over open primaries that were once common and called "firehouse primaries". These primaries kept the American tradition of citizens choosing candidates and ultimately electing them from the local level up. In many instances in today's political environment they have been replaced with "conventions".
Why are "conventions" such an affront to representative democracy? The simple fact is not everyone can participate regardless of whether they are registered voter in a district. Citizens can be excluded based on any number of things in truth from attending and voting in a convention method process. One thing that "conventions" also do is exclude members of the U.S. Armed Forces whom may be deployed overseas or stationed throughout the country but vote in their local precincts. There is no absentee balloting for "conventions". Thus military service men and women are in truth discriminated against in the process to select candidates when a "convention" method is used because they are unable to attend.
The insiders will tell its about money. Everything is about money in politics these days.Ideas are no longer the primary component any longer rather the establishment looks at the viability of a candidate based on how much money they can raise. "Conventions" they will tell us keep the costs of primaries down and save the donations raised by candidates and parties for the general election should they win the nomination.
While there is certainly some truth to the assertion the reality is "conventions" are about controlling the outcome from the outset and from the inside out long before a candidate's name ever reaches a ballot.
Yet, long before the nominating method is determined the most controlling aspect of the process in actuality in what is formally called "redistricting".
Redistricting is in fact the method by which the political establishment and often in particular the one party that is in control at any given time post U.S. Census reporting can legally orchestrate a "money grab" or in truth "vote grab" or "power grab" over a precinct, district or state.
Virginia is witnessing such a grab today. Maryland is witnessing such a grab today as well. In Maryland, Governor Larry Hogan's (R) veto power will be overcome in Annapolis by entrenched Democratic partisans.
As some of you may be aware, Virginia opted to create a "Redistricting Commission"-- a fancy way of describing a group of people hand picked by the political class to make proposals regarding the boundaries or "lines" of the map drawn for the purposes of voting-- that would take up the issue of re-drawing the current voting districts in light of the most recent census.
The battle over maps and lines has always and will always be political because the net result of any map is the gateway to power. Often times these maps are absurd and they are drawn under the rouse of being fair or addressing historical disenfranchisement at polling stations. Voters today often have to pay the costs of prior injustice. Injustices they did not commit nor where even alive at the time to commit but that is neither here nor there in the current "social justice" movement that has pushed narratives that voting legislation and voting maps are on their face "racist" and "discriminatory".
This of course is none sense but it sells. It sells because it is provided a platform by the media establishment that works in concert with political parties to advance such narratives. Where they seek to act as if they are addressing a wrong they are actually putting measures in place to ensure that another group of individuals are silenced or "mapped out" of impacting elections at the polls.
Virginia's attempt in 2020 to go the route of an "independent" commission which on its face was a fallacy has seemingly failed in every aspect.
The Virginia Redistricting Commission was created following the passage of an amendment to the Virginia State Constitution during the 2020 election.
First and foremost, the Redistricting Commission pitched to Virginians as being less political was in fact overwhelmingly political much like the current system used to select judges in the Commonwealth. Virginia still remains one of the few states in the Republic that has the legislature select and appoint judges for the bench over voters electing them. People often wonder why the justice system has become so political and why it is more and more judges are perceived to be "legislating from the bench" but typically fail to connect the dots. This game like so many in Richmond is rigged.
Redistricting debates always arise every decade or so as a direct reflection of population shifts. The net result of these shift is often an added or a removal of a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. We have seen this illustrated with states like California and New York losing seats while places like Texas and likely Florida adding seats in the future. Regardless, the act of redrawing maps which determine these districts that will ultimately send legislators to Congress is always political and always contentions because the very people with a vested interest in the outcome are the very people drawing the maps.
Before we dive into an example of how the redistricting farce may impact Virginia's Seventh Congressional District currently held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) who won the seat in 2018 as a direct result of a previous redistricting "gerrymandering" let break down what transpired in order to get us where we are today.
The Virginia Redistricting Commission was established on Wednesday, January 6, 2021 with the addition of eight citizen members chosen by the Selection Committee of the Commission after the compilation of interested candidates and selections declared by both the majority and minority leadership in the General Assembly in Richmond. These eight citizen appointees by the political class in Richmond would serve on the Commission along with eight legislative members after being reviewed and selected to the position by the Selection Committee composed of five former (retired) judges from various circuit courts across Virginia.
Again, Virginians must connect the dots here in order to understand the true process of selection. Judges that were previously appointed by the legislature to their judgeships were tasked to review potential citizen appointees from the very body that appointed them in the first place to the bench. So legislators like House Speaker Filler-Corn (D), State Senator Lucas (D), Delegate Gilbert (R) and State Senator Norment (R) initially selected dozens of potential citizen members from the pool over over one thousand potentials and submitted names to the Selection Committee. The Committee comprised of the five judges would ultimately select two citizen members from each of the four legislators mentioned lists to come to eight.
Now the eight citizen members would join the eight legislative members that were selected by both the majority and minority leadership of both the House of Delegates and the Senate of Virginia.
The legislative composition is as follows:
Delegate Marcus B. Simon (D) Delegate Delores L. McQuinn (D) selected by House Speaker Filler-Corn
Delegate Les. R. Adams (R) Delegate Margaret Ransome (R) selected by Del. Todd Gilbert (R)
Sen. Mamie E. Locke (D) Sen. George L. Barker (D) selected by Sen. L. Louise Lucas (D)
Sen. Stephen D. Newman (R) and Sen. Ryan T. McDougle (R) selected by Sen. Thomas K. Norment (R)
Not surprise the Virginia Democrats totally ignored rural Virginians in selection process and selected Delegates from densely populated areas like Fairfax County and Norfolk City and State Senators from Alexandria and Hampton to represent them on the Commission.
So in all, Virginia created a highly politically influenced body of sixteen members to propose plans for redrawing districts for local, state and federal elections utilizing the most recent census data provided by the 2020 census---yet another major politically motivated process--in order to generate new proposal for the General Assembly to consider.
Of course things never go in the manner in which they are planned.
In fact, best laid plans and all the political class once again managed to fail Virginians.
The Virginia Redistricting Commission failed to provide a redrawn map by the deadline for the General Assembly to even consider. Imagine that. Mind you, think about the millions of dollars spent on pitching and marketing this commission to voters throughout the 2020 election cycle.
Thus the matter of maps was sent to the Supreme Court of Virginia----who appoints members to this court?--which then proceeded to hire two outside consultants. Whom got to select these "consultants" to the court? Why the legislature of course. One Republican selection and one Democrat to prepare maps for the Supreme Court to consider.
Follow the timeline here. Virginians vote to amend the State Constitution in November 2020 to create the Commission to include eight legislators and eight citizen members. The legislature selects its members as well as screens the citizen members that the judges (5) on Selection Committee all appointed previously by the legislature will select eight citizen members. The Commission meets beginning in February 2021 and ultimately is unable to fulfill its mandate thus the matter than reverts to the courts who then select from legislature lists acceptable "consultants" to actually create new maps.
Thus what began as a commission made up of the voter desired make-up of 50% legislators and 50% citizens has ended up boiling down to two consultants selected by legislatures and approved by the court to actually generate the redistricting proposals. The court would appoint Mr. Sean Trende and Mr. Bernard Grofman to do the work that the commission empowered by Virginians failed miserably to complete.
Who are these two men that now have the power to determine election outcomes in truth for the next decade or more? Is this what Virginians will feel reflects their will or intentions in 2020 when they voted to amend the Constitution? What now in truth has changed in terms of process? It really begs the question whether many political elites in Richmond knew this would end up being the result and the whole push for a more "respectful" "representational" process pitch was all baloney.
Isn't Mr. Sean Trende a pollster?
Trende is an election analyst with Real Clear Politics nominated by Virginia Republicans while Mr. Grofman is a professor of political science and economics at the University of California Irvine and both men have been referred by the courts as "Special Masters".
Seriously "Special Masters"? Could the courts not have come up with a better more appropriate distinction than to interject such antiquated terminology that will only insult and inflame many Virginians? "Masters"? You seriously can't make this up and whether intended or not simply creates more suspicion and generates more division among the very people that the political class states they are seeking to provide voting justice to by way of district mapping.
Both Trende and Grofman appear to be non-Virginians which also further creates an issue with many Virginians given so many elections nowadays are being funded from outside influences and organizations that have no ties whatsoever to Virginia. Now Virginians are having to accept that maps being drawn that will impact future elections could not even be drawn by the very people who live within the Commonwealth.
Trende and Grofman are prohibited by the court from consulting with political parties or partisan groups yet in this political climate and the fact that Trende for example is so closely linked with elections and political interests as a profession how can Virginians have confidence that this to will not end up as just another political football as well?
Regardless of the mapping outcome, Virginia still sits with 11 Congressional Districts just as before but the only question that remains is how will any map rendering change the political positioning or composition of those districts on the ground?
To address potential ramifications with the new "masters" mapping Virginians should focus on the Seventh Congressional District currently held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) of Glen Allen, Virginia (Henrico County).
What is interesting is that the "masters" mapping may actually "redistrict" portions of Henrico County where Spanberger lives to the First Congressional District (VA-01) which is held by Rep. Rob Wittman (R). This district is far more conservative than Spanberger's current district which over 60% is made up of suburban Richmond constituents. This is ironic because this was the very thing that changed the electorate in favor of Democrats in truth almost seven years ago when the Virginia 7th (VA-07) lost Hanover and New Kent County in redistricting.
There is little doubt that in 2018 the Virginia 7th (VA-07) would have re-elected Rep. David Brat (R) to another term had the lines remained the same as when he was elected in 2014. In 2016 Brat won with 218,057 votes during the Presidential cycle where President Trump won the Virginia 7th with 51.14% of the vote but in 2018 lost his seat to Spanberger and only generating 169,295 votes.
What is interesting is that Rep. Brat (R) without having the votes he had in 2014 like 69.52% of the Hanover County vote to the tune of some 26,933 votes and the 69.49% of the New Kent County vote that delivered him 4,979 votes along with the Richmond City votes of 6.504 or 48.97% all of which were moved out of Rep. Brat's district he still only lost to Rep. Spanberger in 2018 50.34% to 48.40%.
With the redistricting of the red leaning district out of the Virginia 7th (VA-07), the Democrats secured the seat in historic fashion but was potentially predictable just based on the removal of solid red areas from the voting electorate. The Virginia 7th (VA-07) was shifted to a predominately "suburban" district away from the rather balanced make-up it had had previously. in 2018 for example 123,000 or so votes for Spanberger came from just two localities; Henrico and Chesterfield. Spanberger won both these counties with 58% and 54% of the vote respectively. These were the only two localities that Spanberger won in the entire district in 2018.
While President Trump won the Virginia 7th in 2016 over Sen. Hillary Clinton 51.14% to 43.30%, Trump lost the district four years later in 2020 to President Biden 49.81% to 48.71%. Spanberger in 2020 defeated Del. Nick Freitas (R) 50.82% to 49.00% once again only winning Chesterfield County (55%) and Henrico County (60%).
Now it appears what happened in Virginia 7th after the 2014 election cycle to Republicans very well may now happen to Democrats. With the removal of Henrico County (part of full) from the Virginia 7th this will shift the electorate in the Seventh to a more northern trajectory. While it may remove Rep. Spanberger from her own district, it will also remove upwards of 80,000 Democratic voters as well based on the 2020 election results. The "masters" have proposed shifting portions of Stafford County and Prince William County into the newly drawn Virginia 7th (VA-07) from Rep. Wittman's First District (VA-01). These two counties constitute 38% of the VA-01 electorate. Wittman won the VA-01 58.15% to 41.71% in 2020.
Important to note in terms of the "masters" mapping of potential district shifts is that Rep. Wittman (R) lost Prince William County 46.49% to 53.36% in 2020 but won Stafford County 54.51% to 45.31% whereas Spanberger handily has won Henrico County that would get removed from the VA-07 the past two cycles winning 58% and 60.64%.
Call political karma or whatever you will but it is certainly political irony if Rep. Spanberger gets shifted to the very district where the GOP precincts were shipped after 2014 that ultimately created the opportunity for the Democrats to win the VA-07. Of course Spanberger could avoid displacement regarding the mapping if she were to move to retain domicile in the VA-07.
Would the "masters" mapping make these races more "competitive"? This is a question I have long pondered. Do we want our politic districts to be "competitive" or do we want our districts to merely be reflected on the will of the people and the local dynamic? Do we really want to simply alienate or isolate demographics simply in the name of "political diversity"?
This is like the political "gerrymandering" of committee seats where you get suburban or urban legislators on agricultural committees.
Delegate Marcus Simon (D) representing portions of Fairfax, Falls Church in HD53 who resigned from the Commission on November 10, 2021 stated this in terms of the new maps being considered:
“It’s not competitive. You’ve got five very safe Democratic districts and six very safe Republican ones. …I don’t think either of these maps is a good place to start.”
Virginians must recognize that rural Virginia is not suburban Virginia let alone urban Virginia. The interests of our Commonwealth are not and frankly should not be the same not matter how hard we we work to gerrymander the Commonwealth to reflect some notion of diversity. Virginians are free to move and live wherever they want based on the their own needs and desires. In efforts to account for massive population centers where Virginians have determined to move and spread that electorate out to impact more than one Congressional district simply because the population in given areas are growing in essence robs rural voters of their leadership to be reflective of their core beliefs.
Thus rural Virginians continue to see true representation be eroded through political games and out right intentional manipulation.
The net results of the impact on rural voters in the VA-07 is testament enough from pre-2014 to 2021. Does Rep. Spanberger truly represent the interests of the electorate when Spanberger only won two of the ten counties that make up the district not once but twice.
Could it not be argued that the interests of Henrico and Chesterfield Counties do not reflect that of Orange, Goochland, Amelia , Powhatan or Nottoway in truth? Look at the very differences in schools for example. While Henrico County wants to advance a "social justice" ideology throughout its curriculum based on its overwhelmingly "progressive" local representation as well as in the House of Delegates, the majority of counties in the VA-07 prefer not to advance it but when 130,000 (80,000 for Spanberger) of the total vote in an election having 450,000 votes cast comes from one single county like Henrico how are interests of rural voters with little in common with suburban voters advanced?
These map renderings appear to be nothing more than consolidations of power. Nothing more.
If politicians were truly concerned with more representational maps maybe a good place to start would be not to have politicians involved in the process whatsoever other than passing such determination and having debates on the open floor of the chambers as to why a map is or is not representational instead of using media emissaries to make any case they want to have made to support or reject a map.
Better yet ask yourself why it is that the political elites would seek to appoint those in both the media and academia to actually draw the map renderings for consideration that will impact Virginia elections moving forward.
Why would they not consider using independent urban planners? I mean these people deal with planning and population metrics every day right?
None of this should surprise anyone. Its all smoke and mirrors from a political class that has long done whatever it could to consolidate power and control while providing an illusion of transparency when the entire process is shaped, molded and controlled by political insiders.
This is why Virginia likely will never see an expansion of real representational democracy with the interests of all served in its General Assembly. If the political class were even remotely interested in representation than they would not start with redistricting rather they would start with taking the 2020 Census data and creating an entirely new General Assembly by adding seats to both chambers to more reflect the population of Virginia in 2021.
The elites will tell you it can't happen because it would take an amendment to the Virginia Constitution but than Virginia just proved its willingness to approve amendments when it approved the Virginia Redistricting Commission.
Have you considered just how under represented Virginians truly are in the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate compared to states with like populations or even our neighbors?
How is it that Virginia has maintained its current House and Senate seat allocation based on population in the pre-1900 era?
The political class in concert with the media establishment have Virginians focused on federal elections---making local elections national of course-- with all calls of discrimination, gerrymandering, or civil rights while keeping Virginians distracted from the cold hard truth; Virginians reflective of her fellow Americans are intentionally under represented and thus disenfranchised by the political class in Richmond.
Virginia's population as of the 2020 Census is 8,631,393.
In 1900, Virginia's population was 1,858,000 and yet in the 2022 Virginia General Assembly Session convening in January there will be the same number of Delegates and Senators "representing" Virginians as there were in 1900.
Think on that. Think on that the next time you hear any of the elected political "performance artists" talk about "representation" or "disenfranchisement".
Interesting historical note, in 1900 Virginia provided 12 electoral votes to William J. Bryan (D) with 146,079 votes out of 264,208. That's right. In 1900 less Virginians voted for President than we now see voting in Congressional district races.
In 1900 Virginia had 12 electoral votes which it received in 1884. Before 1884 Virginia had 11 electoral votes. Virginia retained 12 electoral votes until 1932 when it returned to 11 but then was awarded an additional vote in 1952 making it 12 again. It remained 12 until 1992 when it was raised to 13 electoral votes yet in all that time Virginia never changed its composition of the General Assembly.
The Virginia population has grown by almost seven million people in 120 years and yet Virginia continues to fail to add seats to its General Assembly whereby each elected official continues to have to represent more and more citizens as the population continues to grow.
We are all aware of the massive immigration or "migration" depending upon the narrative being witnessed on our southern border today. What will this mean for populations like Virginia's ten or twenty years from now?
This my friends is the real story behind "redistricting".
The act of redrawing maps is a direct result not of population "change" but of the political class and its unwillingness to evolve by increasing representation and not simply shifting it. The Assembly could then in truth use the very legislative districts not polling locations as the precursor to drawing Congressional maps that actually make more sense and actually provide for greater representation for all Virginians.
What we are seeing is not unlike what happened in Virginia in the 1850's where Richmond moved further and further away from equal representation of rural, mountain areas of Virginia that ultimately resulted in the creation of the state of West Virginia. What many Virginians today do not realize is how close Loudoun and Fairfax Counties were to leaving the Old Dominion right along with those areas that became West Virginia.
When citizens no longer feel they are being represented the seed of Virginia "Vexit" is watered. These "Vexit" petitions locally were real in 2020 in parts of Virginia which no longer feel they have a real voice in Richmond. This above all else is a good rationale for at least listening and considering an overhaul of the composition of the Virginia General Assembly.
Representation is not merely about the act of voting.
Any analysis of the Virginia General Assembly demonstrates a complete bias towards Northern Virginia and urban centers on committees in both chambers of government especially during the last eight years under Democratic leadership. This message was being heard by those Virginians who live in the Valley and Southwest Virginia\ whom have very little in common socially, economically or politically with Northern Virginia and whom just turned out in droves to elect Governor-elect Glen Youngkin (R).
Virginia Republicans have a real opportunity before them to address real representational democracy that our fellow Virginians and Founders envisioned. Will they address it or will they fall back into the trap of power and control and simply flex like the Virginia Democrats did for the last eight years?
The very Virginians who turned out to elect an entire Republican Executive last month are watching. They are watching to see whether the election was in fact transformational change or simply more "politics as usual" for Virginians.
2021 Virginia Governor's Race Map
Virginia 2020 Presidential Election Map
Political Commentary Contributor: Jonathan Scott
