The election is seven days away and it is still asking questions.
The polling has shifted in many races throughout the country but none more than in the VA-5 and VA-7. While many political rating groups have moved VA-05 to "toss up" today after being solidly Republican going into 2020, the majority of the focus in Virginia has been on the Congressional race in the VA-07 where Delegate Nick Freitas (R) is challenging incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D).
Rep. Abigail Spanberger has raised almost 8 million dollars for her re-election campaign and has outpaced Delegate Freitas virtually two to one. Consider that in the VA-05 Bob Good (R) has raised just 1.1 million and Dr. Cameron Webb (D) has raised 4.6 million. Freitas has raised 3.1 million as of October 14, 2020 reporting.
Many understand that the race in the VA-07 simply comes down to Henrico County and Chesterfield County. While there are ten counties in the VA-07, only two could be really be described as "suburban" counties versus "rural" and with that comes population density. Both Henrico and Chesterfield historically have been very conservative in terms of turnout however things began to shift within the last decade if the voting metrics are evaluated. Henrico's shift to the center and ultimately left of center many attribute to President Trump but it also began as a direct result of the turmoil within the Virginia GOP with the Tea Party movement that many in suburban precincts rejected.
While Democrats have virtually swept races in the House of Delegates in Henrico, the GOP managed to hold the State Senate seat (VA-12) in the western portion of the county. Chesterfield County could only hold the Virginia Senate seat in VA-11 while losing the VA-10. Chesterfield remains mostly conservative on the face of things in terms of seats held from its local government to the State House but the margins have been narrowing.
No district illustrates this as much as the seat held by State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (VA-11). Chase was elected in 2015 overwhelmingly after defeating Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary to win the nomination. Chase ran for the most part as a "Tea Party" candidate against what she called an "establishment" Republican in Senator Martin. Chase's entry into politics followed the Tea Party efforts to unseat Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA07) and the nomination of David Brat. Brat would go on and win the Congressional seat representing the Virginia Seventh. Chase claims to have been an integral part of that Brat victory and would win her own race for Virginia Senate 63.74% to 36.26% in 2015. Net +27.48.
Just like Henrico experienced a shift in the subsequent years post Tea Party and the election of President Trump so to has Chesterfield. The shift in Chesterfield differs only in the outcomes of many races where most Republicans have held on to seats or won them in very close races. Historically, it was not uncommon for Republicans for statewide office to win Chesterfield by +20 points or more.
In 2019 State Senator Chase faced her first challenger as she sought re-election. This race was quite different than the race in 2015. Chase transformed her campaign style to mirror much of President Trump's style which she has continued today in her campaign for Governor. Trump won Chesterfield with 48.5 to 46.2 over Hillary Clinton in 2016 however in 2018 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) defeated Rep. David Brat (R) 55.52 to 42.58% in the county.
How can it be explained that Spanberger outperformed Clinton by +9 points? Consider this. State Senator Chase won re-election in 2019 against Amanda Pohl (D). Pohl raised the Democratic support from 36.26% in 2015 to 45.26 resulting in roughly the same percentage gain as Spanberger's over Clinton's performance. What is interesting and should be rather concerning for Republicans in the Virginia Seventh is that Pohl with much less funding than her fellow Democratic candidates in 2019 that resulted in the Democrats securing both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates managed to take Chase's margin of victory in 2015 of +27.48 down to just +9. The race resulted in Chase winning 54.51% and Pohl 45.26%.
Any evaluation of next weeks race for the Congressional seat in the VA-07 must factor in the trending elements of the voting metrics and demographics that exist on the ground in Chesterfield. Spanberger has already proven she can win over suburban voters having won both Chesterfield and Henrico in 2018. Spanberger has successfully wage a pro-business campaign in light of what is happening in Richmond and Washington and has great appeal to women voters.The question remains whether Delegate Nick Freitas (R) can take back some of the margin in the suburbs that Spanberger earned that thrust her to victory. Spanberger lost every rural county in 2018 yet still won election.
Enter State Senator Amanda Chase.
Chase has been campaigning throughout Virginia for eight months for the 2021 Gubernatorial race in Virginia. Chesterfield is obviously Chase's home county and is the only Republican official representing Chesterfield in the Virginia Senate. Chase withdrew from the GOP Senate Caucus as well as her own local GOP Committee in 2019 and is actually more of an independent in the Virginia Senate. Chase is determined to "deliver" Chesterfield to Delegate Nick Freitas (R). Chase recently attended an event in the county in support of Nick Freitas where Senator Ted Cruz (R) and Rand Paul (R) were also both in attendance.
There is no argument that Chesterfield County is vital to any hope the GOP has in regaining the VA-07 seat in Congress. Another loss in Chesterfield like 2018 does not bode well for State Senator Amanda Chase and may illustrate she does not have enough real political weight to pull Freitas to victory in her own county.
While many feel that Chase is determined to "deliver" Chesterfield, it appears that the majority of her events coming up the week before the election are not focused on getting the vote out for Delegate Nick Freitas in Chesterfield or Henrico which are critical to his campaign. One would think that this would be a priority given her commitment to the campaign and her endorsement.
The fact is it is very difficult to unseat an incumbent. The race in the VA-07 will in all likelihood be very close given the increases in voter turnout in the rural areas this cycle but the wild card will be new voter registrations in the suburban localities where over 217,000 voters cast ballots in 2018 out of a total of roughly 345,000 for the whole district.
Some may think that 2018 was an outlier. That Spanberger was simply part of the "blue wave" in 2018 that took the House of Representatives. Many think this because Trump won the VA-07 in 2016 with 51% of the vote and the VA-07 has historically been conservative. Many forget the impact of redistricting on the VA-07 and the loss of solidly conservative precincts in Hanover County.
To understand the shift underway, one has to examine the actual voting metrics:
In 2016 the following was the turnout for the Presidential race in the localities that will determine this years election:
Virginia 7th District Election Metrics:
Presidential Race 2016
2016- Trump (R) 51.14% Clinton (D) 43.30%
Chesterfield County- 53,763 Republican 52,887 Democrat
Henrico County - 44,557 Republican 54,740 Democrat
2018 VA-07 Congressional
2018 -Spanberger (D) 50.34% Brat 48.40%
Chesterfield County- 50,278 Republican 60,897 Democrat
Henrico County--- 43,684 Republican 63,892 Democrat
This examination illustrates the changes on the ground in voting metric that have happened at the polls on election day from 2016 to 2018. The Democrats appear to either be turning out voters, generating new voters or convincing voters to cross over to the Democratic Party. While the Republicans have either remained in line with previous year cycles or declined in turnout at the polls.
Many of stated that the given its a Presidential Election cycle that this should benefit the Republicans yet this dismisses the turnout that the Democrats have sustained in off year cycles who are surely expected to turnout again next Tuesday.
If State Senator Chase intends to "deliver" Chesterfield County to Delegate Nick Freitas, Chase should cancel every single event scheduled this week and concentrate solely on raising the turnout in Chesterfield County in support of Freitas because the trending metrics suggest that the Republicans will need every single vote.
Guest Contributor
Jonathan Scott
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