The visit from President Trump to Virginia this week has created a revival in the enthusiasm for Republicans on the front lines this cycle. With every Congressional seat down ballot of President Trump this November this shot in the arm is likely something that the Republican Congressional candidates need in VA-10 (Aliscia Andrews) VA-02 (Scott Taylor) VA-07 (Nick Freitas) and VA-05 (Bob Good).
No one needed this boost more than Delegate Nick Freitas (R) challenging Abigail Spanberger (D) who defeated David Brat (R) in 2018. Spanberger has 4-1 edge in campaign resources with over four million in her arsenal and she has been hitting Freitas with television, radio and social media ads repeatedly since the VA-07 GOP Convention in Doswell last month.
Spanberger has heavily concentrated her efforts on key localities like Henrico and Chesterfield where she dominated in 2018. In fact these were the only two counties in the VA-07 that Spanberger won outright in 2018. It so happens that these localities are the high population density areas of the VA-07 and in truth were once dominated by Republicans. Former Delegate and Congressman Eric Cantor (R) held the seat in Congress for over a decade before losing to David Brat in a Republican primary. Brat held the seat for two terms before being defeated by Spanberger by two points.
It was the political shift at the polls in Henrico and Chesterfield that was Brats undoing. Brat lost Henrico County by 18 points and Chesterfield Countu by 10 points. While Freitas has attempted to raise the level of turnout in the rural counties of the district ultimately the race will be decided in Henrico and Chesterfield. The latter saw 110,000 or so voters come to polls in 2018 while Henrico County had just over 103,000. Traditionally these areas have voted conservative. For example in 2017 the district voted for Ed Gillespie over Ralph Northam for Governor and in 2016 supported Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton by eight points.
Since 2016, Henrico has shifted to supporting Democrat U.S. Senator Tim Kaine as well as Delegates to the Virginia General Assembly and came very close to winning the State Senate seat held by Republican Siobhan Dunnavant in 2019. Chesterfield still has maintained its Republican Delegates and State Senator Amanda Chase however saw State Senator Glen Sturtevant defeated in 2019. Senator Chase while winning re-election in 2019 saw her margin erode to 54.51% from 63.74%. The striking metric is that in 2015 her opponent only earned 36.26 but her opponent in 2019 reached 45.26. Thats a net 13% change for the Democrats in the VA-11.
These are the dynamics that Freitas faces this November while Spanberger is pumping more and more resources into Henrico and Chesterfield.
Enter State Senator Amanda Chase (I) who now operates without any affiliation to the Republican Party in truth after leaving the GOP Senate Caucus and being removed from her local GOP committee for violating GOP Party Rules in 2019. Chase has endorsed Delegate Nick Freitas in his Congressional bid and was a partcipant in the nominating convention that elected him and was on site supporting Freitas and encouraging conservatives to support him as the convention went to three ballots before Freitas ultimately won the nomination. Chase spent much of the day speaking with conservatives concerning not only Freitas with supporters of Tina Ramirez and Delegate John McGuire but also concerning her Gubernatorial run in 2021.
Chase reassured conservatives in the VA-07 that she would deliver Chesterfield County to Nick Freitas and flip the county from its support of Spanberger in 2018. Chase was on site at the opening of the Nick Freitas campaign office and Chesterfield and spoke with campaign staff and supporters.
Ironically enough, Chase is currently the only officially declared candidate for the 2021 Gubernatorial nomination for the Republican Party. Political analysts speculate that many are waiting until the result of the 2020 Presidential race before make a determination with regard to the Governor race. Chase declared early by traditional standards back in early 2020 for the race in 2021.
Can Chase "deliver" Chesterfield County? Its certainly a very optimistic claim given the metrics at the polls and the trends in the county. Chesterfield certainly has become a "battleground" county in 2020 with the changing demographics. The question remains whether Chase can appeal to this changing demographic. The county now has a younger voting population with new families and a rising rental capacity base in the eastern areas of the county now while the western areas have greater home ownership. Urban sprawl has impacted both the Route 60 and Route 360 corridors of the county. Chase has not spent very much time in the county since her declaration to run as she has been campaigning throughout the Commonwealth for her own nomination prospects and it is unclear if Chase will even get the support in her effort from her local GOP committee that she no longer belongs to.
The contrary could also be true in that Chase's involvement in support of Nick Freitas could actually hurt Freitas with some voters, especially independent voters given all the negative instances surrounding Chase with the police, supporters groups and other Republican colleagues in Richmond.
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