The blame game is alive and well in Virginia. It was only a matter of time for blaming to go mainstream given the Republican Party of Virginia appears in complete disarray following the November elections last Fall.
The Virginia GOP has been in a virtual tailspin for over a decade now. Some would argue even a freefall. Virginia has been turning "bluer" in the last decade not unlike the very same occurrance experienced in Maryland over a decade ago. Only difference is Maryland has elected a Republican Governor the last two election cycles whereas Virginia has failed to elected a Republican Governor since 2009.
Isn't it time Republicans all across the Commonwealth begin to address why that is? How is it liberal leaning states like Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and New Hampshire have elected Republican Governors and Virginia has been unable to since 2009?
A decade is a lifetime in politics. The Democratic Party of Virginia successfully managed to capture and leverage social media in its opposition to Virginia Republicans. The Virginia GOP failed to invest appropriately in the infrastructure required and rested on the fact that Virginia had supported Republicans for decades. The Virginia GOP became convinced it could weather any storm when it won the Governorship in 2009 the year after President Obama was elected in 2008.
Yet how many outside the political historian community has examined how that 2009 victory came to be? How was the messaging so different and appeal so broad that Governor Bob McDonnell earned almost 59% at the polls? And how subsequent candidates have earned on average 10-12 points less than McDonnell at the polls?
It really comes down to outcomes and lessons. The lessons of the last decade are in plain sight but far to many continue to blame others instead of examining the truth.
Virginia has a knack for going against the national election trends. 2013 was one of the cycles in which Virginia elected a Democratic Governor while there was a sitting Democratic President. Typically voters in Virginia elect the opposite party from the one in the White House. Many see it as a hedge but it proves just how broad the "middle" truly is in Virginia and how it is the real force that determines victory in Virginia and not the extremes.
Have Republicans stopped talking to independents and moderate centrists who care very little for legislating morality? It appears so.
Any political scientist will tell you that Virginia is a solid "blue" state based on statewide elections. That however does not mean of course that Virginia is not still a mostly "conservative" state in large portions of the Commonwealth. The issue facing Virginia Republicans is an inability to win in suburban Virginia where population has exploded the last decade.
The election of President Obama in 2008 brought sweeping changes to the ground game for Virginia Democrats. Democrats made inroads into the suburban communities that were long held by Republicans. New voter registrations and an appeal to suburban families has continued with the overwhelming political movement centered around healthcare. Republicans on the federal level managed to cede healthcare to the Democrats even when many aspects of the Democratic initiatives mirrored former Republican positions. The result was devastating to the Republican Party of Virginia.
The eelction results demonstrate that following the election of President Obama, the majority of statewide races have been won in Virginia by Democrats securing over fifty percent of the vote. Some will argue that the election of 2013 was the real turning point given it broke the trend of electing the opposite party into the Virginia Executive than the controlling party of the White House. Historically speaking the Virginia Republicans should have won the election in 2013 and some have argued that had that occurred than in all likelihood most of the elections that followed would have been influenced to the advantage of Republicans.
Victory however alluded Virginia Republicans in 2013 and many political pundits blamed the third party candidate Robert Sarvis (L) who earned 6.52% or Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (R) for the Demcoratic victory. This however is very simplistic at its core as the real issue that drove the election of 2013 away from the grasp of Republicans was the very fact that many fiscal and libertarian conservatives reject the social conservativism that is very prevalent on the far right within the Republican Party of Virginia. This coupled with the fallout between Lt. Governor Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli sealed the Republican fate in 2013. Bolling to this day is villified by many social conservatives and even now in 2020 was recently targeted by the campaign manager of State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase(R) running for Governor in 2021 in a clear attempt to re-open old wounds to advance the campaign's own agenda.
State Senator Chase was a staunch supporter of Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli in 2013 before moving on to supporting Representative David Brat (R) in the 7th Congressional District campaign and later would challenge State Senator Steve Martin (R) of the Virginia 11th in a primary. Chase has made a reputation for herself as being loose with the facts and quick with the blame when its comes to political posturing.
Recently, Senator Chase claimed on facebook that Govenror Ralph Northam (D) was vacationing during the pandemic crisis in Manteo, NC. Chase in yet another clear attempt at a "gotcha moment" informed her followers that she had been provided evidence from law enforcement as to Northam's travels and stays in North Carolina. Chase never managed to provide any such evidence and many have clamored on social media that the evidence Chase alluded to never actually existed. Chase routinely uses her offcial page as a platform for conspiracy theories and misleading information regarding matters pertaining to Northam or the pandemic. Chase emersed herself and her followers in the two month long "Recall Northam" saga that never materialized. The media characterized the effort as yet another one of the various political stunts orchestrated by Chase to elevate her profile outside her district.
Chase called on all Virginians to join her in Richmond on May 6, 2020 to "Re-Open Virginia" and stated that Governor Ralph Northam (D) had "overstepped his authority by imposing restrictions" yet refused to elaborate specifically how the Governor has overstepped or violated the trust of Virginians in executing the duties of his office with regard to public safety. One thing is clear however and that is Chase has apparently done a complete one eighty with regard to mask wearing in Virginia.
Chase seen here at her "Re-Open Virginia " rally in Richmond earlier this month wears a mask and gloves yet just weeks later fails to wear a mask nor follows the social distancing mandate of remaining six feet apart while participating in a subsequent event called the "Great American Tailgate". A week or so later Chase was condemed Governor Northam for not wearing masks while visiting Virginia Beach. At the time of course there was no mandatory mask order in place. The mask mandate actually goes into effect today May 29, 2020. Chase deemed it appropriate to wear mask and gloves early in May but clearly has since changed her position given her lack of any masks, gloves or social distancing in Petersburg while attending an organized event.
Recent polling by Virginia Commonwealth University reveals that the majority (76%)of Virginians polled believe Northam has done an effective job managing the crisis in Virginia as reported by the Daily Progress here:
https://www.dailyprogress.com/news/state/vcu-poll-76-of-virginians-approve-of-northams-response-to-pandemic/article_9e5a0ec8-b8e3-571f-8686-c68dbc24650b.html
This is not a very good sign for Senator Chase or the Republican Party of Virginia should it chose to nominate Chase next year. Chase has repeatedly challenged just about every thing Northam has enacted in response to the crisis. The majority of suburban families are following the mandates prescribed not only by Northam but by the CDC while it is apparent that Chase is leading the charge in opposing such efforts. The question remains why did Chase flip flop on masks and social distancing? Chase determined to wear masks and gloves just weeks ago and now has shifted her position and ignored both masks and social distancing. So the question remains is this simply yet another "stunt" by Chase given Northam has now mandated mask wearing. Chase wore the masks before they were "mandated" but now refuses to wear them because they are now "mandated" by Northam appears to be the message.
State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) with Tim Anderson taking part in the "Great American Tailgate" held in Petersburg, Va.
State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) in Olde Town Petersburg
The Republican Party of Virginia leadership has largely remained quiet during the crisis however it has released statements from time to time expressing its position regarding measures that Northam has enacted. That being said the simple fact is Senator Chase has attempted to take the oxygen away from fellow Republicans by pressing forward with what appears to be very divisive positions for the suburbs and suburban women especially. This should raise alarm bells for all Virginia Republicans.
While many in the Republican Party of Virginia have recognized the shift underway in Virginia there are still those like Chase and her social conservative right that fail to grasp that Virginia no longer is the Virginia of the 1990's and the demographics have shifted. The suburban and urban areas are less attracted to the very issues that leaders like Chase are advocating especially when it comes to opposing equal justice and equal rights for all Virginians regardless of religious beliefs, national origin, identity, gender, race, creed etc. Many voters see Chase as nothing more than an extension of the 1990's wrapped up in a "morality police" platform where public policies should be determined by religious convictions---Christian-only convictions that are more closely associated with Pentecostalism or evangelical positions than the belief sytems of the majority of Virginians.
So while many see the Republican opposition in Virginia as in a state of "RISING" there are those who also see the future of the Republican Party of Virginia "FALLING" further into the minority. In 2019 the Republicans lost control of the Virginia General Assembly after refusing to hold Governor Northam accountable for his "blackface" scandal while the Virginia GOP controlled the majority. No hearings and no investigations into the matter were ever undertaken. One could argue the merits of the political calculations made to not pursue any inquiry but the result ultimately was a sound defeat in November at the polls.
The Virginia GOP has a real opportunity in 2020-21 should it decide to embrace it. Republicans must determine to stop nominating unelectable candidates statewide and rebuild the trust it once had with suburban voters. It will not be successful in enagement efforts if it choses to continue to repeat the same mistakes of the past and deny the ground that is before them. The Virginia GOP must work in coordination to recruit and listen to Virginians seeking less morality messaging and more family-centric, education, healthcare, lower taxes and ecomomic messaging.
These results depict the net result of poor focus and messaging in Virginia by Republicans:
2008-Obama (D) 53%
2008 Sen. Mark Warner (D) 65%
2009 Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) 59% Bolling (52%) Cuccinelli (57%)
2012- Obama (D) 51%
2012- Sen. Tim Kaine (D)- 53%
2013- Gov. McAuliffe (D) 48% Northam ( 55%) Herring (50%)
2014- Sen. Mark Warner (D) 49%
2016- Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
2017- Gov. Ralph Northam (D) 54% Fairfax (53%) Herring (53%)
2018- Senator Tim Kaine (D) 57%
2019- Loss of the majority in Virginia House of Delegates
2019- Loss of the majority in Virginia Senate
Whether Virginia is indeed "RISING" or "Falling" will continue to play out over the next election cycle. Some have pointed to some local success for Republicans this month as promising but many of those local elections were very small turnout results in the middle of the pandemic.
For Virginia Republicans have any real success moving forward, the Virginia GOP must evolve and reshape its messaging or accept the fact that it will remain solely a "principled minority" for years to come.
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