Will State Senator Amanda Chase Run as an Independent?

State Senator Amanda Chase (I-R) from Chesterfield County representing the VA-11 Senate District today posted on her social media page that she would make an announcement today regarding her intentions regarding the 2021 Virginia Governors race.

Chase has teased for months that she would run as an independent having walked away from the GOP Senate Caucus last November after the selections were made for leadership within the caucus and after earlier in that month being removed from her local GOP committee the Chesterfield County Republican Committee (CCRC) for violating party rules.

Here is the release from State Senator Chase:

"TODAY is a BIG DAY!!

Will I run as a Republican or Independent?

This will be determined today.

While representing ALL people in the Senate as a Republican for the past 5 years; I am proudly a Christian, Conservative, Republican and in that order.

My voting record confirms that I have a solid conservative voting record:

100% rating VCDL, ALL 5 years

A rating, NRA

100% rating, Family Foundation, ALL 5 years

100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years

Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party (see end of post for Fact Checks)

The Republican Party of Virginia decides today if we have a convention or statewide primary for the Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General 2021 candidates.

As many of you know I’ve said I will fully seek the Republican nomination for Governor in a primary only. If a political consultant controlled party convention is chosen I will run as an Independent. I made this announcement publicly back in February when I announced my run for Governor."

The prospects of a successful independent run are slim statewide in Virginia for any candidate but for Chase even more so. Chase appears to now have moved in the opposite direction that the majority of Virginians. Chase is prominent former Tea Part activist from early in the last decade and worked on campaigns before herself challenging an incumbent in the VA-11. Chase challenged Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary and defeated him in 2015. Chase held great promise in 2016 as she entered the State Senate, but appears to have squandered her early successes. With the election of President Trump and the reactionary election of 2018 across Virginia that resulted in significant losses to the Virginia GOP, Chase moved further right in both rhetoric and position that got her elected. Chase presented herself as a "reformer" yet in five years in the Virginia Senate has done little to change state government rather spending more of her time wrangling with media and with the Virginia GOP. Chase has attempted to run what could only be described as a "Trump-light" effort using the same social media tactics to build a name for herself. Chase has portrayed herself as the "anti-Northam" candidate and has focused much of her campaign on campaigning against Northam whom will not be on the ballot next year and ignoring the declared candidates from the Democratic Party.

This strategy has placed her in direct opposition of 60% of Virginians who recently in polling support Northam and his handling of the pandemic and very well may be alienating voters. Just across the Potomac River, Governor Larry Hogan (R) who some believe will run for President in 2024 has unleashed a massive WEAR THE DAM MASK" campaign while Chase appears to continue her opposition to masks and mask mandates by Governor Northam. Most polling points to the overwhelming support for mask coverings during this stage of the pandemic and Chase's opposition appears unaligned with the direction most in Virginia are moving.

This is not unusual for Chase. Her entire campaign appears predicated on failed positions. Many political analysts see Chase has attempting to resurrect the Tea Party movement in Virginia however the last six years has proven that Virginians have rejected such positions overall and candidates. Chase speaks to her work with the Rep. David Brat campaign in his election to Congress where the Tea Party was effective in removing Rep. Eric Cantor via primary. This could be the reason as to why Chase seeks a primary over convention.

Another aspect that many insiders believe is that Chase while running for Governor fully understands that it is a very uphill road and has intentions on running for Congress in 2022 now that Del. Nick Freitas has lost his bid to unseat Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) in Virginia 7th. Chase has called Freitas a friend and was one of the few endorsements Chase made in 2020. Chase actively was involved on the campaign trail for her own race while attending many events in the VA-07 alongside Freitas.

It is important to note that Chase could not help Freitas secure victory last month in her own county of Chesterfield where Freitas lost by 11 points. Chase has not acknowledged the fact that Chesterfield County has changed and is no longer a "solid red" county in the GOP stable. Chesterfield for the first time in the post WWII supported a Democrat for President in former VP Joe Biden and in the Congressional race supported Spanberger for a second time in four years.

Chase in truth has her own issues at home regardless of the status of the nominating process. Chase won her district in 2015 by 27 poonts yet only managed a win in 2019 by 9 points. That is a significant decline in support and even more alarming when you consider in 2016 Chase's district was one of the most overwhelmingly supportive of President Trump.

The biggest concern right now for any campaign is money not nomination method. Chase has been in the race the longest of any candidate of either party and has raised the least amount of any declared candidate as of Sept. 1. Chase has only raised 200,000 where freshman Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy (D) has already raised over 750,000 and joined the race some four months after Chase. Now that a second candidate in Del. Kirk Cox (R) has officially declared, Chase appears to have lost an immense opportunity the last ten months when she had all the oxygen.

What can only be described as "classic Chase", Chase is demanding that the Virginia GOP do what she wants in terms of the nominating process issuing a threat of sorts however such efforts backfired on Chase in November 2019 ultimately resulting with her departure from the GOP Caucus. Chase preference for the primary process is interesting given her lack of money. Typically conventions regardless of the Chase claims on her page costs candidates less money that statewide primaries. The audience of a convention of course is much more defined and smaller. The issue that Chase faces with these convention goers is they have been to the circus and seen the strings more times than not. Many are actively engaged in politics far more than average general election voters. Chase herself was a delegate to the convention held in August that nominated Del. Nick Freitas over first time candidate Tina Ramirez. Many have asserted that these convention goers know Chase far too well and would not support her initially on a first ballot and where depending upon how many declare to run could see Chase out of the nomination race after the first balloting.

If Chase does declare today to run as an "independent" than Virginians can fully expect to see her running for Congress in 2022 after losing a third party bid for Governor in 2021. Chase does have other issues to sort out at home as well as many rumbles have begun in Chesterfield to unseat Chase as State Senator in 2023. Much will be determined by the redistricting planning that may go into effect before the next Virginia Senate race in 2023 with new lines being drawn but one thing is certain; Chase will be primaried as she primaried Senator Steve Martin in 2015.

**** Fact Check on the Amanda Chase Facebook post today*****

Chase stated the following:

"100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years "

Fact Check:

Chase received rating of 83% 2016-17 her first two sessions in the Virginia Senate not 5 years at 100%

Chase claims "Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party":

Ratings- Virginia Tea Party Federation 94% (2019) Fiscal Conservative Issues

84% (2019) Conservative Issues

100% (2012-19) Civil Libertarian Issues

Other examples of Legislators with Same ratings as Chase or better:

Del. Kirk Cox (R) 100% VCDL rating 2020

100% Family Foundation 2020

100% Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2019

100% Nat. Federation of Independent Business 2017-19

Sen. Jill Vogel (R) 100% National Rifle Association

100% Virginia Tea Party Federation (2017- H/I)

Del. Nick Freitas (R) 100% VCDL rating

Important to note Ratings: CHASE

American Conservative Union 89% (2018)

Virginia Chamber of Commerce 73% (2019)

The Counter Narrative: Bearing Drift's D.J. McGuire's "Heart is Twisted"

 

Recently, Bearing Drift published some commentary from D.J McGuire who serves as a senior contributor on the staff that everyone should take a few minutes and read. It is ironic that the very people calling for national unity and healing are the very people that very well may have divided our nation in the first place. I recall so many times as a youth where my mom would always tell me its better to walk away from bullies given they only seek attention.

The left in America could never "walk away" from Trump. Not once.

The truth is the American political left created Donald Trump not the Republican Party. Much of the animosity towards Trump on full display for the last four years was derived from him simply running as a Republican in the first with the audacity of challenging the left's beloved Hillary Clinton. Before that of course the left had little issue whatsoever with Trump and in fact was a regular at liberal events and even big donor events for the Democrats.

Once Trump became President there was a determined effort of revisionism by the media.

Trump recently stated at a rally going into the 2020 Election that it was the mismanagement of the prior administration that led him to run for the nomination of the Republican Party in 2016. In short, the Democratic Party created Trump. McGuire, a regular contributor with Bearing Drift as well as frequent guest with Chris Saxman's pre-election zoom calls online with Bearing Drift contributors routinely makes outlandish claims even so far as going after Saxman. Chris Saxman is the Executive Director of the respected non-partisan and non-profit Virginia Free who also hosts a radio show and radiocast daily from 5pm to 6pm Monday thru Friday on WJFN 100.5.

For starters, D.J. McGuire laughed at the prospect of Trump winning the nomination in 2016 let alone winning the Presidency. From the jump, McGuire was not about to provide Trump with a reasonable chance of legitimacy and over the course of the last four years has done nothing more than rail against Trump at every turn. Of course this is much to be expected from those experiencing the anguish of the failed Clinton campaign. However, lately McGuire has turned most of his attention away from Trump and upon Trump supporters.

https://bearingdrift.com/2020/11/11/the-republican-party-is-now-anti-american/

The above submission recently at the Bearing Drift by D.J. McGuire reminded me of the movie "Last of the Mohicans". In it there is a moment where Hawkeye played by , adopted son of Chingachgook of the Mohicans states to Chief Sachem regarding the actions of the warrior Mauga the following:

"Would the Huron make his Alqonquin brothers foolish with brandy and steal his lands to sell them for gold to the white man? Would Huron have greed for more land than a man can use? Would Huron fool Seneca into taking all the furs of all the animals of the forest for beads and strong whiskey? Those are the ways of the Yengeese and the Francais traders and their masters in Europe infected with the sickness of greed. Magua's heart is twisted. He would make himself into what twisted him"

D.J McGuire is Magua

In this context "greed" can easily be replaced today with "power". 

McGuire claims to have been a Republican until "primary voters" went a different direction than he  anticipated and nominated Trump. Understand and recognize the time pertaining to this realization for McGuire and his core rejection of Trump. At the "moment" that the GOP nominated Trump, McGuire no longer considered himself a Republican. McGuire did not wait until election day or even after the first 180 days of a Trump presidency rather he took all his toys and joined the left and spent four years piling on Trump right along with the media.The nation followed along with the repeated and unrelenting attacks on the President yet the attackers never took any pause to recognize that they to share in the growing divide being created in our nation. By never accepting the legitimacy of Trump's victory, it was their hearts "twisted". Having  a flawed candidate and failed campaign they would refuse to accept the legitimacy of Trump. McGuire and others could never  accept the reality that Clinton was defeated.

Now we see the exact same fruit on the right with Trump supporters who may deny the legitimacy of the election of Vice President Joe Biden. Only this time there are real concerns with our election process. Will it overturn the outcome? Probably not but regardless there are real concerns with the "Dominion" suite software, poll observers and ballot inspections. And while McGuire would prefer to ignore the fact that the Pennsylvania courts acted without authority whatsoever under the Constitution, it is clear that many of the measures enacted by the courts and the Secretary of State in Pennsylvania will be ruled unconstitutional actions that in truth worked to disenfranchise the vote of legally authorized citizens through permitting illegal votes in accordance with established Pennsylvania law. While the outcome may not be impacted should not the legal process continue in a Republic when the Constitution is violated? As an American, can D.J. McGuire really dismiss these violations to our founding documents simply out of tribalism or some hate towards Trump and his supporters.

And make no mistake. This piece in the Bearing Drift is hateful and in truth "anti-American" ion its face.

McGuire in his attack on Trump supporters has "anti-American" and his contention that Republicans no longer believe in democracy fails to recognize that ensuring fair elections in in fact standing up for democracy. McGuire has voiced little opposition to a party in Virginia that repeatedly trounces the Constitution or seeks to undermine law and order within our Commonwealth. For example, the Virginia Democrats have sought to end the mandatory reporting of sexual assault on school premises by school officials to local law enforcement, want to send social workers to homes where women have reported domestic violence---no longer do Democrats want to send police to intervene when a man commits assault upon his wife or girlfriend in clear violation of the law--or no longer will it result in jail time for assaulting a police officer let alone a felony. In short, violent criminals can keep their right to vote avoiding felony prosecutions for assault having them all brought down to misdemeanors for the purpose of votes not public safety.

This is not Trump making our communities unsafe. Its Virginia Democrats. Democrats that D.J. McGuire clearly supports. McGuire asserts that somehow Trump has been a "god-send" to those countries in the world that oppose democracy and its been the Republicans that have weakened the standing of America in the world however this could not be further from the truth. McGuire rejected Trump in 2016 over "actual policies" advocated during the nomination process and yet many of those policies have worked to the benefit of the American people and America;'s standing in the world. McGuire like the leftists in the media all but ignore the fact no one even mentions Iraq, Afghanistan or Syria anymore let alone the progress made in the Middle East in terms of peace accords between Israel and Arab nations. McGuire does not recognize that we no longer are talking about ISIS or confrontation with North Korea like during the last administration waning days. McGuire implies that it is far better to use "soft powers" rather than demand that NATO allies pay their fair share in defending their own continent or the very fact that the next President of the United States while Vice President demanded a "quid pro quo" on television in a room full of reporters that have suddenly succumb to amnesia while attempting to pin unverifiable assertions of a Russian "hoax" on the Trump administration.

This is the level of intellectual dishonesty that exists when  your heart gets twisted. 

It becomes twisted with tribalism. Right now President-elect Biden has not been certified by a single state in the Union and yet his team is contacting foreign powers with not so much as a by your leave from anyone. The very thing the leftist media destroyed General Michael Flynn and his family over doing in 2016 during Trump's transition. The media is out praising the Biden team for reaching out to foreign leaders and the election has not even been certified yet nor has there been a concession yet its McGuire's assertion its the Republicans who do not respect democracy and are authoritarian. The Democrats have repeatedly used the courts to legislate or at the very least as a sword against any measure the legitimate government attempted to employ and used the fourth estate (media) as cover. McGuire claims its the Republicans that are the "fifth column" or the "enemy from within" whereas the truth is it is the media and the establishment (swamp) that are the enablers and the true fifth column in America.

McGuire like so often is completely wrong in his assessment in large part because it is purely an emotion-based opinion void of true objectivity of fact. That would be par the course for most of the media these days, however McGuire takes it entirely too far when he asserts such characterizations regarding supporters of Trump. 71 million Americans went to the polls, cast absentee or mail in ballots for President Trump and any notion that somehow D.J. McGuire has the finger on the heartbeat of 71 million supporters is rather absurd if not arrogant. 

Is it somehow "anti-American" that 71 million Americans want to keep their jobs in America and not have them shipped out overseas again? (D.J. NAFTA was a disaster) That wanting to be able to assume the risks of their choosing and worship in their churches during the pandemic is "anti-American"? That desiring to the have a means of self defense with their rights not infringed is "anti-American"? That desiring to go to work and not be forced to stay at home due to emergency powers is "anti-American"?  That seeking integrity in their elections and desire for every legal vote be counted is "anti-American"?

No. What is truly "anti-American" is shredding our institutions over the false narratives of systematic racism and seeking to "pack the courts" or create as the "Squad" pronounced rolls of names of supporters of Trump from within the confines of the government service or private citizens opposing their agenda. One could argue that the very notion of the level of socialism that D.J. McGuire would accept is "anti-American".

How you know D.J McGuire's heart is truly twisted and the reality that he should reexamine his perceptions of Americanism is that he could never admit that Trump was "his"President. He denied himself that ability by permitting his heart to be twisted and in fact has become himself the very thing that has twisted it. Read his own words. Ask yourself what possible place could individuals find themselves to think so little of their fellow countrymen regardless of tribe.

In all likelihood Joe Biden will become the next American President. Upon certification of electors, Biden as a duly elected President will become an American President and as because I am an "American" he will become MY President regardless of whom supported him at the polls. I will honor MY President with that respect. A respect that D.J. McGuire and many of his colleagues on the left failed to provide President Donald J. Trump for four years.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott

VA-07 Election Anaysis: The More Things Change the More They Stay The Same

As the data and the metrics continue to come pouring in and the result in the Virginia Seventh Congressional District (VA-07) no longer appears in doubt, the Republican Party of Virginia should wast little time in diving into the data points that determined the election last week in favor of Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) for a second time in two years.

There should be some level of concern on the part of Republicans that should not be dismissed by the establishment interest or the political consultant class. Many Republican campaigns have used the same consultants over the course of the last decade that appear to have not read the electorate at large or the metrics on the ground especially well in suburban Virginia. There appears a widening disconnect between the GOP candidates and suburban voters, especially suburban women, minorities and "foreign born" voters.

The fact remains that the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has steadily lost the suburban vote over the last seven years. Consultants would like to lay much of this at the feet of President Trump however this is an easy out for them that often is not substantiated by the many of the metrics.

For example, in 2020 President Trump outperformed many of the Republican candidates for Congress. One rising star for the RPV is Aliscia Andrews (R) who ran in the VA-10 and managed to generated higher percentages than Trump in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties in her district. In her precincts in Prince William County, Andrews outperformed Trump by 13 points and in Fairfax County by 10 points followed by Loudoun County and Clarke County by 3 points.

Conversely, President Trump outperformed candidates like Bob Good (R) in VA-05 and Del. Nick Freitas in VA-07 in about half as many of the counties in the districts and not simply rural localities. In an election cycle where the media all but declared suburbia for the Democrats as a repudiation of Trump, not all of suburbia reflected that narrative.

Trump managed to raise his percentage in Henrico County from 36.60% in 2016 to 38.73% however Del. Nick Freitas came in under both Trump's 2020 performance as well as Rep. David Brat's 40.12% in 2018 for the seat in VA-07. Del. Freitas would lose Henrico 60.64% to 39.18 where Rep. Spanberger increased her voting percentage by 2 points from 2018. 

Spanberger also managed to raise her voting percentage in Chesterfield County just under a percent as the difference in the result resulted in the same 10 point margin in the Democrats favor. Spanberger outperformed Biden almost a point in Chesterfield and over a point in Henrico. Spanberger raised her vote count in Chesterfield County from 60,897 in 2018 to 80,161 in 2020 and in Henrico from 63,892 in 2018 to 80,421 in 2020. These two localities represent the lions share of votes cast in the VA-07.

Online surveys indicate that the one of the issues that put Delegate Nick Freitas on the defensive with suburban voters was the manner in which Spanberger used "preexisting conditions" and an "autism vote" to characterize Freitas. Spanberger raised over 4 million dollars and used these resources against Freitas in repeated ad campaigns and online media using the healthcare issues has a focal point.

Following the election in a caucus call, Rep. Spanberger stated that the Democrats "need to not ever use the term socialist or socialism ever again" and that the messaging regarding "defunding the police" nearly cost Spanberger the race in 2020. The comments illustrate the differences between Spanberger and the progressives in the Democrat Party and actually puts her at odds with many Virginia Democrats in Richmond. There is some suspicion that the Spanberger team leaked the audio from the caucus call given the team recognizes that 2022 may be in jeopardy for her if a Biden administration is directed by the progressives in Washington.

On the Republican side, many are already seeking Delegate Freitas to run again in 2022 given the tightness of the race but in evaluating the trends and metrics this may not actually be the best course of action for RPV given Freitas has now lost a U.S. Senate statewide primary and a Congressional race  within last two years.  Scott Taylor (R) sought to take back his seat lost in 2018 forgoing a U.S. Senate run and failed to win the VA-02 last week. 

In examining the House races that the GOP won in 2020, it is Republican women that seem to outperform expectations.  Two examples were winners Nicole Malliotakis (R) in NY-11 and Maria Salazar in FL-27.Given the makeup of the Virginia suburbs and the rising trends of women and minority owned businesses in suburban Richmond, the RPV needs to evaluate these metrics to ensure that any candidate has appeal to this metric.

The fact remains that any Republican nominated in the VA-07 in 2022 would likely win most of the rural districts. These voters must turnout in 2022 of course but the GOP must have a candidate that can appeal to at least 46% of the suburban electorate or the RPV to flip VA-07. How the RPV responds to a typical decline in turnout after a Presidential election will certainly be something to keep and eye on with its new Chairman in Rich Anderson.

The reason for this is that the Democrats increased its turnout but not its voting percentages compared to the Republicans. Only in Goochland and Powhatan did Spanberger raise her "rural" percentage  and it was by less than a percent. While this should concern the Democrats if the GOP can turnout voters in 2022 should Biden finally get certified as the winner, the Democrats will continue to focus on the suburban vote that has delivered Spanberger two elections in a row now. In back to back cycles, Spanberger has only won two counties out of ten in the district.

Concerning for the RPV is the following areas in "rural" Virginia that Del. Nick Freitas under performed Trump: (Trump/Freitas)

Amelia County  68.29%  (67.38)

Louisa County 60.66%  (60.07)

Nottoway County 56.89%  (55.10)

Powhatan County 71.24% (70.62)

Orange County 59.91%  (59.73%)

There is a question in terms of Democratic turnout if the election was a referendum on Trump in truth or support for Biden. Places like Louisa County which appears to be moving move with VA-05 counties in terms of trends saw an increase of about 2,500 Democratic voters over 2018  and Spanberger in 2020 outperformed Clinton by 4 points. Spanberger outperformed Clinton (34.83%) with 40.81% in 2020 adding 2,000 voters from 2016 in support for her campaign. Orange County experienced almost an identical result where Clinton earned 34.50% and Spanberger earned 40.08% in 2020. Spanberger took advantage of almost two thousand more Democratic voters over 2016 turnout for Clinton.

A positive for Delegate Freitas was he raised voting percentages in all but two counties; Henrico and Goochland.  It is important to also consider that Freitas (39.18%) under performed in terms of appeal to left leaning districts in terms of margin as State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R) 2019 race performance where Dunnavant's 49.14% in Henrico helped her secure victory in a very tight election against Delegate Debra Rodman (D) 50.76% to 49.06%. Freitas did perform very well in established Republican precincts in Henrico but these could not propel him to a county victory where Spanberger won 60.64%.

The question than becomes will the RPV recognize the appeal and the criticisms such leaders as State Amanda Chase seeking the GOP nomination for Governor have launched against Dunnavant's positions though it appears they appeal to more Henrico voters than President Trump, Del.Freitas and Rep. Brat. Supporters of the GOP should also recognize the appeal that rising start Tina Ramirez may have in suburban Richmond in 2022 than Delegate Freitas or Rep. Brat have delivered. One could also argue that Senator Dunnavant (R) has more appeal to suburban voters as well historically and given the rise of Republican women and success at the polls this cannot be understated.

Suburban Turnout VA-07: 2016/2020----will leave you scratching your head

Chesterfield County:  85,045 (Trump) 65,019 (Trump) -

                                   81,074 (Clinton) 79,783 (Biden) -

Henrico County :       59,857 (Trump)  52,184 (Trump) -

                                   93,935 (Clinton) 80,032 (Biden) -

Trump lost voter support in the following counties from 2016 to 2020:

Chesterfield County 48.22% to 44.07%

Goochland County 59.73% to 58.80%

Spotsylvania County 55.25% to 54.84%

Orange County : 60.93% to 59.91%

Culpeper County: 60.08 to 59.05%

Freitas lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 (Brat) to 2020:

Henrico County 40.12% to 39.18%

Goochland County 59.58%- 58.94%

Spanberger (D) raised voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Chesterfield County: 54.09% to 55.03%

Henrico County : 58.67% to 60.64%

Powhatan County: 28.89% to 29.30%

Goochland County: 39.52% to 40.81%

Orange County: 40.07% to 40.08%

Spanberger (D) lost voter support in the following counties from 2018 to 2020:

Amelia County: 32.87% to 32.49%

Louisa County: 40.47% to 39.73%

Spotsylvania County: 44.17% to 43.88%

Culpeper County: 40.68% to 39.98%

Nottoway County- 45.05% to 44.72%

All statistical information and voting metrics in this article come from two primary sources that Virginians can review.

1. https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2020%20November%20General/Site/President_and_Vice_President_(CD_-_07).html

2. vpap.org/visuals/visual/presidential/

Guest Commentator

Jonathan Scott

The GOP Holds VA-05 For Now

 

It has been an intense election cycle for the Virginia 5th Congressional District. After nominating Bob Good (R) with 58.12% at one of the strangest nominating conventions in Virginia history given the pandemic, Good went on last week to defeat Dr. Cameron Webb (D) to retain the Congressional seat for the Virginia GOP.

Good had defeated beloved Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) who was elected in 2018 to represent the VA-5 in the cycle that saw the Democrats pick up seats throughout Virginia. Each of those pickups in 2018 held in 2020 for the Democrats and include VA-2, VA-7 and VA-10.

Many pollsters and media polling agencies moved VA-05 into "toss up" leading into election day however in the end the VA-5 outcome remained the same as 2018 even with increases in turnout. The key for Good appears to lied in the rural vote turnout which outpaced prior elections. Rep. Riggleman (R) had generated 53.18% in 2018 and Bob Good (R) managed to hold serve in 2020 with 52.49% overall.

However, if you evaluate the underlying metrics what is revealed is Bob Good (R) under performed President Trump in many conservative leaning areas of the district. Trump actually outperformed Good in left leaning areas as well like Albermarle County where Trump earned just 32.18% and in places like Nelson, Fluvanna, Greene, Madison and Prince Edward Counties.

Nelson County: 49.47 (Good) 51.65% Trump

Fluvanna County: 49.28 (Good) 51.48% Trump

Greene County: 58.78 (Good) 60.70 % Trump

Madison County: 62.80 (Good) 65.20% Trump

Prince Edward County: 46.09 (Good) 46.31% Trump

In contrast Rep. Ben Cline (R) in the VA-06 in Augusta County next door to VA-05 outperformed Trump 77.21% to 72.65%. Riggleman in 2018 also outperformed Bob Good in Albermarle County where Riggleman earned 35.26% compared to Good's 31.47. Riggleman further outperformed in Fluvanna, Madison and Nelson Counties in 2018 than Good in 2020.

This is worth noting because Riggleman and Good are very different Republicans. Riggleman is more centrist/moderate than Good who described himself during the campaign as a "biblical conservative". This district is undergoing a transition in which the Virginia GOP is going to have to compete cycle after cycle in the next decade. The same shifts to the suburban Charlottesville City areas occurred in the suburban areas of the Virginia 7th Congressional District east of VA-05.

Dr. Cameron Webb (D) raised turnout levels in areas like Charlottesville City, Danville City and Albermarle County substantially this cycle and managed to win Nelson and Fluvanna Counties won by Riggleman in 2018.  In Nelson County for example, Webb increased turnout from 3,669 (2018) to 9,179 (2020) and earned 50.09%. In Fluvanna County the turnout was raised to 15,699 in 2020 from 5,790 resulting in a flip to the Democrats with Webb generating 51.50%. Riggleman won Fluvanna County with 50.46% in 2018.

In Albemarle County which densely populated in comparison to other others of the VA-5 saw turnout raise to 63,366 in 2020 from 34,409 in 2018. Webb won Albermarle County with 68.22% roughly four points more than was earned in 2018. It is safe to say that Dr. Webb is not going away and very well may be back in 2022.

One interesting county metric is Campbell County where Bob Good served on the county board. Riggleman garnered 72.20% in Campbell County in 2018 while Good generated four points less in 2020 in his home county and turnout virtually doubled to 29,494.

Why are these metrics important?

In recent years the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV) has been criticized for not recognizing the demographic shift or trends in the Commonwealth. This has happened in places like Prince William County, Henrico County and Chesterfield County where Democrats are gaining seats not only in the General Assembly but also assisting the Democrats hold Congressional seats.

Ignoring these shifts and trends will result in the Virginia GOP be nothing more than a rural party. The results last week in the Commonwealth reflect a real danger to the Republican Party of Virginia in terms of the ground lost in the suburbs since the Tea Party movement almost a decade ago.

While many would never consider the VA-05 has anything but a rural district, the shifts are underway the counties outside places like Charlottesville. Thus far the Republicans are holding counties north of Charlottesville like Greene and Madison but the shifts in Albermarle and Nelson County should concern the GOP because more Virginians are moving into those areas.

Yes. Bob Good won the race in VA-05. However, the GOP must recognize that the Democrats are looking at the metrics and seeing a clear path to drawing closer and closer to flipping the VA-05 given the pattern other districts have experienced and factoring in that turnout will likely decline in 2022 without Trump on the ballot for the GOP. 

If the Democrats can maintain turnout percentages in 2022 they poise a real threat in the VA-5 unless the Commonwealth experiences redistricting plan from the newly approved commission that should be created during the next General Assembly session beginning in January 2021.

While the Republicans have held the district there is much work to be done for the 5th District Committee chaired by Melvin Adams. The most pressure could be on the GOTV committee chaired by Rick Buchanan with members Eric Brazael and Catherine Francis (RPV) but also the Ethics/Integrity committee which Eric Brazael is also a member and chaired by Nancy Rodland who secured one of the three position on the State Central Committee for the VA-05.

Due to all the circumstances that resulted in the nomination of Bob Good (R) in 2020, the VA-05 District Committee will certainly be under much more of a microscope than years past and one cannot help but wonder given the totality of the situation whether Bob Good goes unopposed in 2022 from within the GOP.

VA-5 covers part of the counties of Fauquier, Henry, and Bedford; and encompasses all of the counties of Rappahannock, Madison, Greene,  Albemarle, Nelson, Fluvanna, Buckingham, Cumberland, Appomattox, Campbell, Prince Edward, Charlotte, Lunenburg, Franklin, Pittsylvania, Halifax, Mecklenburg, and Brunswick; as well as the independent cities of Charlottesville and Danville. 

Virginia: What lies ahead?

Whether one believes the 2020 Election was fraudulent or not does not dismiss the fact that Virginia has solidly more than ever become politically a "blue" state. Those that dismiss that fact are either those that profit by not admitting as much or simply those ignoring facts.

2020 Election by Region

The Election of 2020 was what is called a "base" election. Period.

The problem in terms of Virginia for the Virginia GOP is it had to wage a two front battle throughout 2020. On one front it had to fight the surging Democratic machine and outside money has it had in 2019 but also had to deal with the "Never Trumpers" from within the Republican Party itself. Many of the latter subscribe to the notions of the Lincoln Project.

While rural Virginia turned out in 2020, so to did the urban centers that overwhelmingly support Democrats.  Trump appears to have made significant inroads with minorities in places like Norfolk and Hampton precincts in 2020 compared to 2016.

In Norfolk, Trump raised his support from 26% to 44.17% and in Hampton from 28.9% to 44.63% among voters. The question however remains whether these votes were mere "Trump" votes and not "GOP" votes and whether the Virginia GOP has the capacity to keep these votes in the upcoming election of 2021 for the Virginia Executive.

2020 Election by County/City in Virginia

What cannot be understated is Trump lost the Virginia suburbs. No path to victory exists in statewide elections without winning the suburban vote in Virginia. One glaringly concerning development for the Virginia GOP was the loss of Chesterfield County. Trump has won the county in 2016 but lost the county in 2020 but some seven points. Biden outperformed both Obama and Clinton in Chesterfield County which now mirrors Henrico County across the James River in suburban Richmond where Trump losts by some twenty nine points. This was a county formerly held by Rep. Eric Cantor (R) for over a decade until his defeat six years ago in a primary at the hands of the Tea Party.  ( See upcoming posts: "Virginia: How the Tea Party Changed Virginia?")

Virginia now is decisively "blue" in statewide elections or "popular votes".  Biden like Governor Ralph Northam (D) won overwhelmingly in Virginia and did so simply by raising the voter turnout in the very areas of the Commonwealth that the Democrats have controlled post 2013. Bidens 53.92% is virtually  identical to Northam's 53.90 in 2017. Whereas Gov. Northam (D) earned 1,409,175, V.P. Joe Biden in 2020 earned 2,377,061. That is almost 1 million more votes cast in 2020 for Biden than for Northam three years prior. One hope in 2021 for Republicans is that this level of turnout will not be sustainable in the November 2021 elections. This may not be that far fetched in truth given Hillary Clinton generated 1,981,473 in 2016 some 500,000 more votes than Northam in 2017, however the ground game and the infrastructure is more developed now than it was in 2017 for Democrats across the Commonwealth.

We have learned that the more things change the more they in fact stay the same in Virginia politics. Virginia has not supported a Republican for President since George W. Bush(2004)  and not a Republican Governor since Bob McDonnell (R) since 2009. The Congressional Delegation to Washington remains unchanged and sits 7-4 in favor of the Democrats and the Democrats hold both U.S. Senate seats.

The hope for a resurgence for the Virginia GOP is the General Assembly. The Commonwealth will hold elections for the House of Delegates in 2021 which will be crucial for the GOP even more so than the Executive races that may be out of reach. Many believe that a Biden administration could open the door for the GOP in terms of next years race for Governor but much will hinge not on the Democrats but rather who the Virginia GOP actually nominates.

The Democrats claim that Trump was repudiated in Virginia last Tuesday. However, Trump did raise his vote count by almost 150,000 votes from 2016 to 2020. The Virginia GOP very well may be smart to look towards focusing on one aspect of the Trump appeal in terms of 2021 and that is his business acumen and  being an outsider. In other words, fresh new blood and not a retired from the GOP stable.

Two potential candidates that fit this strategy are Pete Synder and Glenn Youngkin. Two businessman that have been working during the pandemic to support Virginia workers and families throughout the crisis. Snyder's "Virginia 30 Day Fund" and Youngkin's "Virginia Ready" have been successful endeavors supporting the working class families of Virginia. While Snyder has some campaign experiences in Virginia, Youngkin would be a complete outsider with broad appeal to fiscal and moderate conservatives. Neither men even remotely resemble the "Trump" personality let alone would make any attempt to replicate it as others in the GOP have attempted thus far in Virginia. Other potential candidates include Delegate Kirk Cox or former State Senator Bill Carrico.

How much impact Trump will have on 2021 is still an unknown but any attempt to replicate Trump in a statewide race will be met with the same fate at the polls. The GOP requires an authentic voice to address what the Commonwealth will face in the coming years and with a budget shortfall of almost 3 billion and tax hikes almost a certainty it will be new voices that are required to attract suburban voters back into the GOP fold.

The 2021 General Assembly will loom large on the 2021 election cycle. How far the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party of Virginia yields its power will be center stage. The wing appears to be determined to go after law enforcement, gun reform, criminal sentencing reforms and a robust tax hike from sales tax to income tax. 

The biggest question today is whether the Virginia Democrats will over play their hand during the 2021 General Assembly session in Richmond.

New "Back The Blue" PAC Launched in Virginia: Delegate Jason Miyares (R)

 

As a direct result of the Virginia Progressive wing of the Democratic Party of Virginia assault on law enforcement in the name of "social justice", Delegate Jason Miyares (VA-82) who represents the former seat held by State Senator Bill Desteph (R) in Virginia Beach City has formed the Back The Blue PAC. Miyares won re-election in 2019 by almost 20% in a year when Virginia Democrats took majority in the House of Delegates.

Website: www.backtheblueva.com

The Virginia Democrats appear to have handed the Republican a gift for 2021 with its unreasonable assault on law enforcement which could only be described as anti-community. 

On the Chris Saxman radio cast "Virginia Free" which airs daily on Facebook and on the radio, Delegate Miyares communicated the goals set for the Back The Blue PAC and supporting those candidates in 2021 and beyond that support law enforcement and common sense reforms not what the Virginia Democrats have introduced.

Miyares stated some questions her has asked constituents regarding the proposals advanced and supported by Governor Northam.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/october/headline-861097-en.html?fbclid=IwAR1JjCiRAvTe1v0tPP7vwzjBkFPv9cpcyKcj8eVVjM2XQG4bwVDb3RsR2I0

A few of Miyares questions:

"Do you feel more safe ending the mandatory reporting requirement of sexual violence in schools to law enforcement?"

"Do you feel more safe with release of violent offenders?"

"Do you feel more safe with assaults on police as misdemeanors not felonies?"

"Do you feel more safe with Parole Board letting out those sentenced to life in prison without parole?"

Other areas also raised is the Virginia Democrats desire to END mandatory minimums for sentencing. This is one thing that should shock all Virginians. These minimums apply to all Virginians equally without regard to race, sex, creed, religion, gender or sexual orientation. If fact these minimum sentencing guidelines promote EQUAL JUSTICE under the law for offenders. These sentencing guidelines are fixed and do not take into account ones wealth, status or even whether they can hire a high priced lawyer.

The Virginia Democrats are clearly placing SOCIAL JUSTICE over EQUAL JUSTICE.

Can State Senator Amanda Chase (I-R) "Deliver" Chesterfield County in VA-7?

The election is seven days away and it is still asking questions.

The polling has shifted in many races throughout the country but none more than in the VA-5 and VA-7. While many political rating groups have moved VA-05 to "toss up" today after being solidly Republican going into 2020, the majority of the focus in Virginia has been on the Congressional race in the VA-07 where Delegate Nick Freitas (R) is challenging incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D).

Rep. Abigail Spanberger has raised almost 8 million dollars for her re-election campaign and has outpaced Delegate Freitas virtually two to one. Consider that in the VA-05 Bob Good (R)  has raised just 1.1 million and Dr. Cameron Webb (D) has raised 4.6 million. Freitas has raised 3.1 million as of October 14, 2020 reporting.

Many understand that the race in the VA-07 simply comes down to Henrico County and Chesterfield County. While there are ten counties in the VA-07, only two could be really be described as "suburban" counties versus "rural" and with that comes population density. Both Henrico and Chesterfield historically have been very conservative in terms of turnout however things began to shift within the last decade if the voting metrics are evaluated. Henrico's shift to the center and ultimately left of center many attribute to President Trump but it also began as a direct result of the turmoil within the Virginia GOP with the Tea Party movement that many in suburban precincts rejected.

While Democrats have virtually swept races in the House of Delegates in Henrico, the GOP managed to hold the State Senate seat  (VA-12) in the western portion of the county. Chesterfield County could only hold the Virginia Senate seat in VA-11 while losing the VA-10. Chesterfield remains mostly conservative on the face of things in terms of seats held from its local government to the State House but the margins have been narrowing.

No district illustrates this as much as the seat held by State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (VA-11). Chase was elected in 2015 overwhelmingly after defeating Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary to win the nomination. Chase ran for the most part as a "Tea Party" candidate against what she called an "establishment" Republican in Senator Martin. Chase's entry into politics followed the Tea Party efforts to unseat Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA07) and the nomination of David Brat. Brat would go on and win the Congressional seat representing the Virginia Seventh. Chase claims to have been an integral part of that Brat victory and would win her own race for Virginia Senate 63.74% to 36.26% in 2015. Net +27.48.

Just like Henrico experienced a shift in the subsequent years post Tea Party and the election of President Trump so to has Chesterfield. The shift in Chesterfield differs only in the outcomes of many races where most Republicans have held on to seats or won them in very close races. Historically, it was not uncommon for Republicans for statewide office to win Chesterfield by +20 points or more.

In 2019 State Senator Chase faced her first challenger as she sought re-election. This race was quite different than the race in 2015. Chase transformed her campaign style to mirror much of President Trump's style which she has continued today in her campaign for Governor. Trump won Chesterfield with 48.5 to 46.2 over Hillary Clinton in 2016 however in 2018 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) defeated Rep. David Brat (R) 55.52 to 42.58% in the county.

How can it be explained that Spanberger outperformed Clinton by +9 points? Consider this. State Senator Chase won re-election in 2019 against Amanda Pohl (D). Pohl raised the Democratic support from 36.26% in 2015 to 45.26 resulting in roughly the same percentage gain as Spanberger's over Clinton's performance. What is interesting and should be rather concerning for Republicans in the Virginia Seventh is that Pohl with much less funding than her fellow Democratic candidates in 2019 that resulted in the Democrats securing both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates managed to take Chase's margin of victory in 2015 of +27.48 down to just +9.  The race resulted in Chase winning 54.51% and Pohl 45.26%.

Any evaluation of next weeks race for the Congressional seat in the VA-07 must factor in the trending elements of the voting metrics and demographics that exist on the ground in Chesterfield. Spanberger has already proven she can win over suburban voters having won both Chesterfield and Henrico in 2018. Spanberger has successfully wage a pro-business campaign in light of what is happening in Richmond and Washington and has great appeal to women voters.The question remains whether Delegate Nick Freitas (R) can take back some of the margin in the suburbs that Spanberger earned that thrust her to victory. Spanberger lost every rural county in 2018 yet still won election.

Enter State Senator Amanda Chase.

Chase has been campaigning throughout Virginia for eight months for the 2021 Gubernatorial race in Virginia. Chesterfield is obviously Chase's home county and is the only Republican official representing Chesterfield in the Virginia Senate. Chase withdrew from the GOP Senate Caucus as well as her own local GOP Committee in 2019 and is actually more of an independent in the Virginia Senate. Chase is determined to "deliver" Chesterfield to Delegate Nick Freitas (R). Chase recently attended an event in the county in support of Nick Freitas where Senator Ted Cruz (R) and Rand Paul (R) were also both in attendance.

There is no argument that Chesterfield County is vital to any hope the GOP has in regaining the VA-07 seat in Congress. Another loss in Chesterfield like 2018 does not bode well for State Senator Amanda Chase and may illustrate she does not have enough real political weight to pull Freitas to victory in her own county.

While many feel that Chase is determined to "deliver" Chesterfield, it appears that the majority of her events coming up the week before the election are not focused on getting the vote out for Delegate Nick Freitas in Chesterfield or Henrico which are critical to his campaign. One would think that this would be a priority given her commitment to the campaign and her endorsement.

The fact is it is very difficult to unseat an incumbent. The race in the VA-07 will in all likelihood be very close given the increases in voter turnout in the rural areas this cycle but the wild card will be new voter registrations in the suburban localities where over 217,000 voters cast ballots in 2018 out of a total of roughly 345,000 for the whole district.

Some may think that 2018 was an outlier. That Spanberger was simply part of the "blue wave" in 2018 that took the House of Representatives. Many think this because Trump won the VA-07 in 2016 with 51% of the vote and the VA-07 has historically been conservative. Many forget the impact of redistricting on the VA-07 and the loss of solidly conservative precincts in Hanover County. 

To understand the shift underway, one has to examine the actual voting metrics:

In 2016 the following was the turnout for the Presidential race in the localities that will determine this years election:

Virginia 7th District Election Metrics:

Presidential Race 2016

2016- Trump (R) 51.14%  Clinton (D) 43.30%   

Chesterfield County-  53,763 Republican   52,887 Democrat

Henrico County -        44,557 Republican    54,740  Democrat

2018 VA-07 Congressional

2018 -Spanberger (D) 50.34%   Brat 48.40%

Chesterfield County- 50,278 Republican  60,897 Democrat

Henrico County---    43,684 Republican  63,892  Democrat

This examination illustrates the changes on the ground in voting metric that have happened at the polls on election day from 2016 to 2018. The Democrats appear to either be turning out voters, generating new voters or convincing voters to cross over to the Democratic Party. While the Republicans have either remained in line with previous year cycles or declined in turnout at the polls.

Many of stated that the given its a Presidential Election cycle that this should benefit the Republicans yet this dismisses the turnout that the Democrats have sustained in off year cycles who are surely expected to turnout again next Tuesday.

If State Senator Chase intends to "deliver" Chesterfield County to Delegate Nick Freitas, Chase should cancel every single event scheduled this week and concentrate solely on raising the turnout in Chesterfield County in support of Freitas because the trending metrics suggest that the Republicans will need every single vote.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott  

            

Denver Riggleman-- The New Face of the Virginia Center

 In the last two years Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) VA-05 has been one of the most productive servants in the Virginia Congressional Delegation in the House of Representatives in Congress.  Rep. Riggleman and Rep. Rob Wiittman (R) VA-01 have an ability to reach consenus and work in so many bipartisan efforts where they can find common ground  on issues impacting Virginians all across the Commonwealth with Democrats.

Rep. Riggleman is very outspoken on the issues and never shies away from confronting elements in both political parties that he deems on the wrong side of issues or a threat to the founding doctrines of the Republic. This of course makes Riggleman a target for both sides especially on social media who seek to use him as a rock to break their own views against.

There is a great interaction in the movie "Braveheart" where Robert the Bruce is speaking with William Wallace and states :

"If you make enemies on both sides of the border, you will end up dead" and William Wallace responds "We all end up dead; its just a question of how or why"

This is really the story of Rep. Denver Riggleman (R)) venture into the sphere of Virginia politics. The truth is Republicans continue to lsoe in Virginia similarly as the clans of Scotland because the clans would not stand together just like today in Virginia where the warring "clans" or "wings" of the Virginia GOP can't  unite. No more was this more evident than in the VA-05 in 2020. A district that appears to have a large contingent of Never Trumpers than any other GOP controlled Congressional district in Virginia whose allegiance appears more closely aligned with Senator Red Cruz (R).

Riggleman is an outspoken limited government conservative who believes that the individual should be free to engage in the opportunities provided within a free society and a functioning democracy with limited involvement by the government or its powers. At his core Riggleman is a free thinker and could aptly be described as more of a Libertarian Republican than any other elected official in the Virginia Congressional Delegation. Having himself served in the U.S Airforce for fifteen years and the intelligence community as well as operating a small craft distillery business in Virginia. Riggleman worked vigorously to deregulate the distillery industry in Virginia. Furthermore, Riggleman has a firm grasp of the various dynamics that impact both domestic and foreign policy. Even though the outspoken Riggleman has his own voice he still maintained a 93.9% voting record in line with President Trump while serving in Congress. 

While many have taken to social media in recent weeks to attempt to discredit Rep. Denver Riggleman after his loss in his re-election bid during the nomination process last summer it is important to note that Riggleman had the full support of President Trump which did not help him in one of the most pro-Trump Congressional districts in Virginia. After the nomination of Bob Good through some rather nefarious actions in the VA-05 nominating process, Trump of course flipped his position on Riggleman like so often Trump does. Keep in mind, Riggleman had conservative approval rating of about 94% the last two years representing the VA-05. The battle raged in the VA-05 all summer and regarding Riggleman and appears to have nothing to do with policy or votes rather it has to do with the fact many have made it personal based on things that frankly are totally irrelevant or at least should be in the context of performing the duties of office. Trump recent attacks on Riggleman are nothing more than the fact Trump has always had a "winners and losers" mentality. Remember the "Apprentice"?Trump stating that Riggleman lost his re-election bid for not being "Trump enough" is simply not born out by the facts yet none the less Trump is known for jettisoning anyone who moves from his winners consideration to losers and the fact remains Riggleman lost.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/us/politics/denver-riggleman-virginia-primary-bob-good.html

Everyone knows of course "how" Riggleman lost. The VA-05 nominating process in 2019/20 was plagued with corruption. Committee members were taking payouts while they worked behind the scenes to unseat their own Congressman. This is not the role of a district committee in truth and the fact is it very well may ultimately lead to the Republicans losing the seat in Congress to Dr. Cameron Webb (D). The fact remains the committee was successful in removing someone with broader appeal in the general electorate that attracted support from libertarians, moderates, conservatives and even "blue dog" Democrats replacing him with a far right "biblical red" conservative in Bob Good. A candidate that has not denounced the alt right or QAnon going into an election less than two weeks away that appears now to have moved from "solid red" or "safe seat" to now "toss up". 

https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/nonpartisan-cook-political-report-declares-virginias-5th-district-race-a-toss-up/article_eb370edd-96cd-5d79-ab1f-834692b6a367.html

Its ironic that as the Good campaign attempts to attract support from the extreme right of the Virginia GOP, Rep. Denver Riggleman has been working to expose the truth with regard to some of these groups than apparently even President Trump is not fully versed on. Recently, Riggleman introduced bipartisan resolution condemning QAnon in Congress.  QAnon is well known as a movement that promotes unfounded conspiracy theories as truth or fact on social media that began in 2017 that are meant to undermine the public trust Americans have in their democratic institutions.

Rep. Denver Riggleman recently stated that "QAnon and the conspiracy theories it promotes are a danger and a threat that has no place in our country's politics...I condemn this movement and urge all Americans to join me in taking this step to exclude them and other extreme conspiracy theories from the national discourse."

The Combating Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy has stated that "QAnon is arguable no longer simply a fringe conspiracy theory but an ideology that has demonstrated its capacity to radicalize to violence individuals at an alarming speed".

https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-half-of-trump-supporters-believe-q-anons-imaginary-claims-124025042.html

The problem is Riggleman appears alone in his condemnations. Campaigns such as Bob Good for Congress and Amanda Freeman Chase for Governor refuse to condemn QAnon. 

Why is it that Good and Chase refuse to condemn the movement? Recently USA Today reported on a Yahoo! News poll (see above) that half of President Trump's supporters believe in QAnon. The result simply has been a fear in condemning the movement by candidates. Riggleman has never displayed such fear in terms of doing the right thing regardless of the political ramifications. Riggleman is right in his condemnation of QAnon as much as he was right to marry a gay couple in 2019 who asked the Congressman to marry them.

So while Riggleman's bipartisan resolution (H.R. 1154) to condemn QAnon passes the House of Representatives in a 370-180-1 vote. The resolution was joined by Rep. Elaine Luria (D) from the VA-02 as a co-sponsor.

It is very telling that the movement has about as much creditibility as the Russian Collusion hoax and yet candidates like Good and Chase cannot bring themselves to condemn it. It seems while Riggleman has been outspoken against far left and far right conspiracy theories that advance anarchist ideologies and anti-Semitic tropes that encourage domestic violence. I am not alone in questioning why it is both self -professed Christian "biblical red conservatives" Bob Good and Amanda Freeman Chase appear to embrace those elements on the alt right that advance some of the most anti-Semitic views and insight violence that our intelligence community and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)  have stated "very likely motivate some domestic extremists , wholly or in part, to engage in criminal or violent activity".

It really begs the question why many like Good and Chase refuse to condemn such a movement. Do they really believe that the movement is indicative of how most Virginia Republicans think? I did a recent unscientific test and reached out to about two dozen conservatives in the VA-05 and VA-11 Senatorial District that Chase represents that I am connected with on Facebook and ask them how they felt about the QAnon movement. ONLY 3 even remotely knew anything about the movement and could actually speak to its positions. These were people that I respect and know are engaged in Virginia politics. ONLY 3.

Riggleman has tapped into something that is growing especially in Virginia. Many Virginians are reaching their fill on the divisiveness that many like Amanda Freeman Chase are promoting on the campaign trails. Riggleman believes that "the vitriol and anger spewing from both sides of the political aisle, echoing around the darkest corners and caverns of the internet has led to violence and hate, divisiveness and anger". Riggleman has demonstrated and knack for pointing out what we all know to be true but have refused to admit.The extremes of both political parties have hijacked their respective parties and left the middle or centrists to reconsider the binary choice.

If you examine Rep. Denver Riggleman's actual record in Congress it is really hard to just dismiss is effectiveness to lead and to bring people together. Even after losing his re-election bid last summer, Riggleman has continued to roll up his sleeves and stay in the fight for conservatives.

This week supporters of Bob Good took to social media to condemn Riggleman for comments they deemed detrimental to their candidate and insinuated that Riggleman betrayed the GOP by meeting with Dr. Cameron Webb (D) recently but has never publicly supported Good since his nomination. Ironically, these people are the very ones who supported corrupt efforts to unseat Riggleman in the first place and now expect Riggleman to "fall in line". Clearly, these people do not know Denver Riggleman at all. The "fall in line" or "kiss the ring" mindset is not part of the Riggleman DNA. 

Good supporters were upset that Riggleman would actually speak with Dr. Webb who stopped by the Congressman's distillery in the district coupled with the fact that Riggleman stated recently he would be "open" to "considering" any candidate.  Many would likely find this dispute as petty however it is actually really indicative of the problem that the Virginia GOP faces with the selection of candidates that have been nominated in many areas of Virginia. To those like Good and Chase and their supporters "principled" means nothing more than agreeing with them.

What has a "principled conservative" become in Virginia? Is it Ted Cruz (R)? Is it President Trump? Does the Virginia GOP even know anymore? The more supporters of Good and Chase flex the more the tent shrinks and the issue of QAnon and the alt right is simply one more example of this. The very fact that many Republicans cannot publicly rebuke or condemn these movements is every bit as telling as the lefts inability to condemn Antifa. 

Senator Chase is a prime example of this bipolar approach and hypocrisy. Chase continually has condemned Antifa but refuses to condemn QAnon and embraces the alt right fringe of the party and while supporters of Good and Chase rail against Riggleman for speaking with Dr. Webb they are silent on the fact that Chase herself met with Black Lives Matter/Antifa supporters in July in Richmond. So it seems appropriate for Chase to speak with designated domestic terror groups but not appropriate for Riggleman to speak with a candidate running for Congress from the Democratic Party who happens to be an actual constituent.

Much of what we have seen in 2020 regarding these movements and the rhetoric on the campaign trail and the fact that right now the Virginia GOP faces even further decline in representation on the Congressional Delegation after next months election will create a vacuum in the center of the Virginia political spectrum that Rep. Denver Riggleman is aptly able to fill in 2021.

Riggleman is currently weighing his options come January when his term expires. There is little doubt that Riggleman will continue his honorable service to the nation and may return to the intelligence community or potentially run for Governor of Virginia in 2021. It safe to say that whatever Riggleman decides to pursue he will remain unwavered in his commitment to his values in support of our Commonwealth, the Constitution and the Republic.

Many believe that the election next month may send the Virginia GOP into an even greater tailspin than the elections of 2019. The extreme far right has lost the Virginia center. With each passing Facebook post on pages of candidates like Amanda Freeman Chase the middle is further lost. The "center" is something Chase has portrayed for eight months as "liberal Republican" or "Democrat light" totally ignoring or even attempting to speak to these Virginians who are fiscal conservatives believing in limited government, lower taxes, equal justice, equal opportunities and have little appetite for social issues. While the center may not participate heavily in conventions or local committees it does in fact come to the polls in force.

Rep. Denver Riggleman whether intentional or not is speaking right now to the Virginia center. The center understands that Republicans can still win the Virginia Executive with the right candidates not unlike Gov. Larry Hogan(R) who has won two consecutive terms in highly liberal Maryland while all statewide Republican candidates have lost in Virginia since 2013. The chances for victory double in truth if Vice President upsets President Trump as Virginia historically moves counter to the holder of the White House.

The more the far right extremists use Rep. Denver Riggleman as a rock to break their own QAnon and alt right divisiveness against the more that the Virginia GOP loses even more ground and provides the opportunity for a sea change in the Virginia political universe in 2021. Again the "clans" are divided and have yet to identity someone they can all unite behind.

No Republican can win Virginia statewide without the support of the Virginia center comprised of libertarians, moderates and independents and yet as 2021 gets closer and closer the more these voters are alienated by the far right movements that embrace xenophobic, homophobic, anti-Semitc and anti- government rhetoric.

Guest Contributor

Jonathan Scott

Bob Good (R) attacks on Cameron Webb (D) Deemed False

 

As the Congressional races continue to push forward to next month's election there has been a massive shift to digital spending given the COVID-19 impacts on retail campaigning throughout the districts. This is particularly true in the Virginia 5th where the incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) was forced out of his seat through rather corrupt practices from within his own local GOP committee during what has been characterized as a "circus" resulting in the nomination of Bob Good (R) formerly of Liberty University.

Recently, the Good campaign appears to be scrambling over disclosures that resulted in the campaigns filings that may have not revealed certain assets owned by Good. It happens that the Good campaign appears to have failed to disclose about 250,000 in assets on state filings that appeared recently on federal paperwork filed as an amended financial disclosure form. The filing can be found here:

https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/financial-pdfs/2019/10039161.pdf

This issue comes after recent attacks launched by the Bob Good campaign against the Democratic candidate Dr. Cameron Webb (D) that claim that Webb supports defunding police and has asserted that Webb is in effect "anti-police".  Immediately following the attack, Bob Good's own record with regard to local policing came under scrutiny that demonstrated that Good while an official with Campbell County supported decreasing funding for local sheriff office on two separate instances which has been claimed to limit the effectiveness of attracting deputies to Campbell County as the pay scale is not commensurate to other Virginia localities. The Webb campaign fired back very aggressively on social media to dismiss the claims coming from the Good campaign regarding defunding.

Dr. Cameron Webb has never released any public statement regarding support of defunding police. This issue has been made a hot button issue in many Congressional races however there is some question in reality just how much impact any Congressman would have on local law enforcement funding in truth. Local law enforcement typically comes within the parameters of local government funding and allocation of funds for the either sheriff or police departments. Webb denied the claims in terms of defunding police and charged the Good campaign with yet another misleading attack on his candidacy.

Webb is the son of a former federal law enforcement officer and a large part of the Webb campaign has been criminal justice reform. Such campaigning has generated some traction in the greater Charlottesville region of the district. Webb has campaigned effectively in some conservative areas of the district through his effective connection skills with voters of both parties. Webb has given some credit to President Trump in areas like criminal justice reform but has stated that he hopes to expand on the First Step Act signed by President Trump. 

Webb has hardly thus far run a negative campaign directed at is opponent. The Good campaign however has gone negative in wake of recent polling for President Trump that can certainly impact down ballot races in Virginia. Good has to be very careful with this strategy as he is also having to deal with the fact he must heal the rift between him and Riggleman supporters. Many of Riggleman's supports are independents and Libertarian Republicans who do not subscribe to the "red biblical conservative" label that has come to be the prime attribution to Bob Good. 

These voters are very much up for grabs in the VA5 as a direct result of the VA5 GOP District Committee.

The race as it stands in early October is a "toss up". That in itself is a huge positive for Virginia Democrats given the nomination of Denver Riggleman would have certainly created a much tougher road for winning the district. Much will depend on the turnout in the Charlottesville region which is typically a pro-Democratic area. The impact of Covid-19 and the unknown campus turnout this cycle as a result at University of Virginia is a critical contributing factor in this race this cycle.

The claim regarding defunding police has been rebuked rather effectively by the Cameron Webb campaign and Webb very effectively turned the issue back on Bob Good's own record in Campbell County that otherwise many voters may never have known.

The VA5 should be lean Republican but Cameron Webb is making in roads in areas within the district which is one of the most diverse in terms of geography and one of biggest districts in the Commonwealth. It can take some five hours to travel from one end of the district to the other north to south. It is comprised of rural, small town and mid size towns as well as small cities. Many are college towns with younger voter classes.

Th wildcard in this race is Denver Riggleman. Thus far there has been no real endorsement of Good from the Riggleman camp and many believe that Riggleman plans to run for Governor of Virginia in 2021 as an "independent" given the bad blood that the corruption in the VA5 nominating process highlighted earlier this year.

The Republican Party of Virginia has since voted in support of preventing such corruption from happening again stemming from VA5 District Committee members accepting payments from the Good campaign during the nominating process and than casting votes regarding the process in which the nomination would occur.  Many claim that this corruption was born out contempt for Riggleman by some committee members for marrying a gay couple in 2019. It has been claimed that Melvin Adams and Chris Shores associated with the Virginia 5th Congressional Committee went about locating a candidate to challenge Riggleman over the issue. Adams has been reported to have made extreme homophobic comments and anti LGBTQ comments that Cameron Webb's campaign has used effectively in portraying Good as having the same core religious beliefs that are not aligned with majority of the district.

Thus far Dr. Cameron Webb has raised 1.3 million according to the Virginia Public Access Project whereas Bob Good has raised just 262,031 as of June 30, 2020.  The next campaign donations numbers should be releasing very soon.