Monday, December 16, 2019

Two Virginia Congressional Democrats Waffling?


Just when the Virginia Democrats face an onslaught of mobilized opposition to the Virginia Progressive Democrats attempts to introduce state legislation to make hundreds of thousands of Virginians felons overnight for owning firearms, Congressional Democrats in Virginia now face the question of impeachment.

It could not have come at a worse time for Virginia Democrats. Especially Representatives Abigail Spanberger (D) and Elaine Luria (D).

Both Spanberger and Luria were elected during the "Blue Wave" in 2018 to Congress. Along with about twenty nine other Democrats, they were elected in districts that President Trump won in 2016. While all across the country other Democrats are facing the impeachment question, Spanberger ad Luria also have to deal with a growing Constitutional movement known as the 2A Sanctuary Movement rejecting Virginia Democrats attempt to face the most restrictive gun legislation in the entire country.

Abigail Spanberger represents the Virginia 7th District comprising of Central Virginia localities like Chesterfield and Henrico all the way up to Culpeper while Elaine Luria's Virginia 2nd District is predominately the Virginia Beach, Hampton Roads, Norfolk and Williamsburg corridor.

Spanberger recently in Spotsylvania County at a town hall meeting was lambasted for her support thus far for impeachment. Less than a week later, Spotsylvania County would pass a resolution to become a 2A Sanctuary county joining virtually every locality in her district except Henrico and Chesterfield. Thousands of Virginians showed up at rallies and meetings in localities comprising the district. Even in Chesterfield County where a vote on 2A has not been taken witnessed two thousand citizens attend its recent December agenda meeting.

 By introducing the Articles of Impeachment at this time, Nancy Pelosi has put both of these Virginia Representatives right in the crosshairs of a growing movement going into 2020. The timing could not be any worse as both have such started fundraising for the 2020 campaign for re-election.

Spanberger faces some real challenges now. A half dozen candidates including Delegate John McGuire, Tina Ramirez, Delegate Nick Freitas, Andrew Knaggs, Pete Greenwald and Craig Ennis have already declared candidacy for the Republican nomination to face Spanberger next November.

Nick Frietas, who just won what may be the biggest write in campaign last month after missing a filing deadline for his Delegate seat has been extremely active at meetings and rallies in support of the 2A movement. Tina Ramirez provided her support at the Goochland County board meeting during the comment period and John McGuire also has attended meetings like the one held last week in Chesterfield County. Ramirez leads an international non profit focused on religious freedom around the world.

Not only is the 2A movement providing local opposition to Democrats but now multiple conservative organizations have begun ad campaigns directed at these Representatives over impeachment. Freedomworks, Heritage Action and the American Conservative Union are just three of the forces behind multiple streams targeting the Democrats in Trump won districts.

There are rumblings that Spanberger may now be waffling over impeachment. Spanberger's biggest accomplishment to date was not supporting Pelosi for Speaker back in January. The Democrats know they can lose about seventeen votes and still push the needle of impeachment. Pelosi may be willing to give up some Democrat votes in the Trump won districts to satisfy those voters in an effort to prevent a "red wave" in 2020 that would cost her majority. Luria is also in the same position as just last month the Virginia Senate seats in her district were won by Republicans even though Democrats secured victory in both the Senate and House of Delegates of Virginia.

Both Spanberger and Luria signed on to an op ed that was published in the Washington Post in support of the impeachment inquiry. This op ed many claim is what pushed Speaker Pelosi to advance impeachment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democratic-reps-luria-and-spanberger-of-virginia-join-calls-for-trumps-impeachment/2019/09/24/8aaae884-deca-11e9-b199-f638bf2c340f_story.html

Voters have not forgotten. Based on the town hall meetings hosted by both, there is considerable opposition to impeachment in their districts. And now with the Governor pushing extreme gun control measures in Richmond the Republicans it appears have been "poked".

The power of Virginia politics no rests with the densely populated Northern Virginia localities where Republicans have little footing any longer. The conservative localities of Virginia lead a different life. They are mostly rural and not nearly as populated. The values also appear to be quite different than Northern Virginia where the population has been heavily influenced by immigration the last two decades and the the increase in size of the federal government. Residents are paid more in Northern Virginia and have greater access to services than the majority of the rural localities. Gun ownership and gun appreciation is also quite higher in rural conservative localities as well as opposition to impeachment.


The above map put together by Larry Sabato of the UVA Center of Politics illustrates the power dynamic in Virginia. Many localities in Virginia now question their voice in Richmond and it is this question that very well may have awakened a Republican Party that has been dormant for almost a decade.

Trump impeachment and the 2A Gun Sanctuary Movement may just be the combination that will not only defeat Democrats next November on the ballot along with Trump but also return the House of Delegates to the Republicans in 2021.

It is no wonder there are rumors that Spanberger or Luria may break with other Democrats in the House of Representatives to put one of the fires out but voters now likely will see the move has simply purely political and something counter to the campaigns both ran in 2018 to win their seats in the first place.

Thus far the #2AStrong Virginia Gun Sanctuary Movement is approaching 80 localities sign on in opposition to Progressive gun laws and the number is growing.

#Spanberger #Luria #Sabato #UVACenterofPolitics #VaGOP #BlueVirginia #VAHouseofDelegates #TinaRamirez #VA07 #VA02 #2ASTRONG #gunsanctuary #vagunsanctuary #2A #Northam #Pelosi #impeachment #HeritageInstitute #Freedomworks #TeaParty

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