Spanberger in Trouble: And Blue Virginia Knows It

So last month was probably the most predictable election in Virginia history. That is really not a bold statement. Everything was aligned for the Democrats given the rather lackluster campaign season run  by Virginia Republicans in 2019 in terms of message "unity".

The "experts" on the left did not predict anything groundbreaking in truth no matter they would like to tell you as they pound their chests.

The Democrats ran a coordinated effort and were heavily funded in most races. The races that counted anyway and the Democrats secured both the House of Delegates and the Senate. Little did Democrats (Virginia voters not insiders) know that that the victory last month may have also created its own fleas of sorts. A Party that remained so coordinated now is beginning to fracture every so slightly in large part to the upstart Progressives having taken over policy messaging.

Lets be completely honest.

The Progressvies like Sen. Saslaw, Delegates Mark Levine and Elizabeth Guzeman do not represent the majority of Virginia Democrats. They may of course represent the Northern Virginia Progressive mindset that is for the most part not even truly Virginian ( oops better watch that or they may call the blog a nativist site). Recent proposals of gun banning and registration are two prime examples of how Progressives are alienating roughly two thirds of Virginia localities.

Now, Virginia Democrats do not care today. The election has been won. The power lust so clearly evident has been fulfilled. Voters all but assured that but Progressives are hanging Democrat Delegates in many areas of the Commonwealth out to dry for 2021.

Yet, we do not even need to go that far out. In 2020, we will have a Presidential cycle and frankly Trump may be the one race that is rather inconsequential to Virginians in truth as far as the electoral college goes. Trump last month did not even visit the Commonwealth in large part because the State GOP appeared to run away from him this cycle (very poor judgement). The ones that truly maintained Trump messaging like State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R-Chesterfield) managed to win by almost ten points in her Senate re-election campaign and Republicans should be thankful given she could have easily lost in the face of Progressive advocacy funding and Republicans would be down one more seat in the Senate.

Keep in mind Republican leadership did not support Chase (will post about this soon) let alone very many of the other outwardly pro-Trump last month with funding.

The 2020 election will likely see Virginia go once again for a Democrat over Trump. Much may depend on what "brand" of Democrat wins the nomination but the Democrats have been winning now in Virginia statewide races rather handily with the arrival of Obama in 2008. However, the Congressional races are the ones to truly watch and Democrat pundits and shillers are nervous. Very nervous.

Why do we know this? How could this be following such victory in the General Assembly? The Assembly has not even convened for session yet and the attacks are already being launched against potential candidates that would challenge the incumbent Democrats in the House of Representatives.

Chaz Nuttycombe the new millennial Progressive political analyst mind power of the Virginia (not sure he can buy alcohol yet) Democrat Party - (ironically growing up in conservative Hanover County) recently managed to assert that rising GOP star Delegate Nick Freitas (VA-30) was simply another Charlie Kirk who the childish Nuttycombe characterizes as a "grifter".

Chaz Nuttycombe, Blue Virginia

It is clear that Nuttycombe has some real contempt for Turning Point USA and its engagement on college campuses nationwide because of course they belong almost entirely to Progressives right?

Here is how Nuttycombe describes Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA. Pay particular attention to the Progressive code words---these must get taught at all the Progressive communications schools for the journalism schools are all but dead. "Spritual leader" is a direct shot at people of faith from Nuttycombe who appears to continually have an anti-Christian slant in his observations. How many other political organizations have their founder or Director referred to as a "spiritual leader"? Nuttycombe signals here "cult" and that is what he thinks Republicans in Virginia are in truth.

Charlie Kirk (1993[1]–) is an American right-wing grifter, professional meme maker, and diaper enthusiast. He is the founder and spiritual leader of Turning Point USA (TPUSA), which organizes bizarre conservative stunts on college campuses.

TPUSA claim that they’re a “youth organization that promotes the principles of fiscal responsibility, free markets, and limited government,” when in reality, they’re just a right-wing echo chamber for dying boomers and edgy white boys that takes any chance they can get to insult socialists. Most of their Twitter feed consists of calling out socialists for being “hypocrites”[2] (because apparently using an iPhone and buying things to survive instead of living in a cavemen commune invalidates all your anti-capitalist arguments), complaining about leftist propaganda in the curriculum,[3] making antisemitic and/or rape jokes,[4] sharing terrible memes, et cetera and et cetera.

If Turning Point USA is in fact an "echo chamber" than what is Blue Virginia exactly? Typical of the Progressives who apply standards to others they would never apply to themselves.

How does this relate to Delegate Nick Freitas? Well, the Progressives have targeted him as the likely winner of the convention nomination process next year to secure the VA07 nomination to challenge Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Spanberger who may have not supported Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House but has voted alongside her 94% of the time since arriving in Washington. Ex federal agent and CIA analyst (she will tell you this fact constantly), Spanberger now has become simply associated with what is wrong with Washington; the 'establishment" class of institutions reigns over the country and the Democrats place more emphasis on the institutions like the intelligence community or justice over the Constitution. Spanberger may have taken oaths to protect and defend the Constitution but voters clearly see her as someone that has sold out to Washington and her former colleagues in the establishment.

Freitas just recently won what may be the largest write in campaign in modern Virginia politics. In fact, many Progressive analysts believed he may lose his seat in the House of Delegates due to a missed filing deadline and having to run as a write in. They were wrong of course. Freitas has become a "brand" within the State GOP not unlike Senator Amanda Freeman Chase. Both get characterized by people like Nuttycombe as "far right" however Progressives see the momentum both are gaining during the 2A Gun Sanctuary movement spreading across the Commonwealth. Freitas has been at virtually every locality in the VA07 stumping at rallies and talking with voters outside local board meetings.

To Progressives like Nuttycombe, The Constitution is never a priority. Nuttycombe asserts that should either Nick Freitas or Delegate John McGuire whom both secured re-election last month were to win the nomination that the VA07 "the race would shift to LEAN D" from "Tilt D".

Nuttycombe is placing a large bet on an incumbent who won by less than 2% in 2018 in an historic election for Democrats when Trumps approval rating was much lower than it is today. And given Trumps rise in the polls and Spanberger's support for impeachment it is no surprise that the attacks are coming already by the Progressives to provide cover to Spanberger.

                                Rep. Abigail Spanberger D-VA07

Spanberger lost 8 out of 10 of the localities in the VA07 but still won the election in large part because she won the two suburban counties in Henrico and Chesterfield.  Spanberger completely out campaigned incumbent David Brat (R) in Henrico County where she garnered twenty thousand more votes than Brat winning the county 58.67% to 40%. A quick look at the other localities demonstrates that even in 2018 the VA07 is a conservative leaning district regardless of what Progressive shillers like Nuttycombe profess.

Amelia County 66%-33% Brat

Chesterfield County 54%-45% Spanberger

Culpeper County- 58%-41% Brat  (Nick Freitas House of Delegate District)

Goochland County- 60%-40% Brat

Henrico County- 59%-40% Spanberger

Louisa County- 58%-40% Brat

Nottoway County- 54%-45% Brat

Orange County - 59%-40% Brat

Powhatan County- 70%-29% Brat

Spotsylvanis County- 54%-44% Brat

Nuttycombe asserts on twitter regarding potential GOP nominees here:

Nuttycombe assertions completely underestimate the popularity of both Freitas and McGuire in the district. Both have won elections and in fact have better name id in many areas than Brat every had and yet Brat managed to win all but two localities.

So lets look at Nuttycombe's observation with some objectivity for a moment. Say he is correct. Say that both Freitas and McGuire would be a "blessing" to the Democrats how would that help Spanberger win any of the localities she lost in 2018? Fact is it would not and Progressives like Nuttycombe do not care anymore than Spanberger does.

The race for VA07 will be won in Chesterfield County and Henrico County where the majority of the votes are cast in the district: In 2018:

Abigail Spanberger secured 124,789 of her total vote count of roughly 176,000

David Brat secured 93,962 of his total vote count of roughly 169,000

Progressives understand that these two localities will determine the election and it is where the lions share of the media will be focused on. Nuttycombe dismisses if not ignores the rising gun sanctuary movement much to the Democrats demise in 2020. 

Nuttycombe while dismissing Republicans in general, also underestimates the value in the Freitas campaign for the nomination to run for Senator against Corey Stewart who ultimately lost to Time Kaine (D). Worth pointing out as bad a candidate as Stewart was for the GOP, Kaine only beat Stewart in the VA07 by five points.

Kaine only did 1% better in 2018 than Spanberger in Chesterfield and Henrico against a really unpopular Republican candidate so taking these number into account and the recent State Senate race last month in Henrico County where the Republican incumbent Siobhan Dunnavant defeated Delegate Debra Rodman by just under two points and whereas State Senator Glen Sturtevant (R)lost his re-election bid he won the voting in Chesterfield County  and Powhatan both part of the VA07.

Spanberger campaigned on behalf of Rodman in the 12th Virginia Senate District. Rodman lost in an election where Democrats secured the Virginia Senate.

To ignore what is currently happening on the ground in many of the localities in the VA07 is either an arrogance or simply just ignorance by the Progressive analysts. Virtually all the localities outside Henrico and Chesterfield have supported either resolutions or made affirmations that they do not support the proposed gun legislation by Progressives.

Are there thirty thousand votes out there in the VA07 to be secured to flip the VA07? You bet there are and the registration campaign in underway. This far roughly twenty percent of those in attendance at the rallies for gun sanctuaries did not participate in the 2018 election for the VA07. Participation in 2020 will not only help Trump expand his margins in 2020 from 2016 in the VA07 but will also bit into the vote count in Henrico and Chesterfield for Spanberger.

The Progressives know this of course. That is why they are attacking Nick Freitas now. Chesterfield County will e decisive battleground for Conservatives. Republicans will demand that the County controlled by a pro-Republican Board pass a 2A resolution affirming the Send Amendment. A County with almost 350,000 people has just been "poked" by the Progressives with their gun ban legislation.

Leslie Haley, Chair of the Chesterfield County Board of Supervisors runs the risk of losing support from her base Republicans if she does not act and act soon in 2020. Nick Freitas and John McGuire both understand the significance of Chesterfield County in their election hopes and oth have been out stumping for 2A.

Meanwhile, while Republicans connect with voters Spanberger is in Washington supporting the impeachment of President Trump. An impeachment that has less than 40% support in the VA07.

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