The Distancing of Corey Stewart: The Only Path to Victory

The Republican Party of Virginia is at a crossroads.

The Republicans find the coalitions that were created decades ago showing signs of wear and some have argued that the very foundation is crumbling. The loss of the majority in both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly crystallized this very point as many Republicans stayed home from the polls in a critical election year to determine control of government in Virginia.

The coalition that delivered so many victories for the Republican Party of Virginia has been one consisting of fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, libertarians and Republicans which many now describe as "liberal" Republicans. The last major victory for the coalition was the election of Governor Bob McDonnell in 2009 however there were signs years before that the coalition was being held together by some of the best and oldest Virginia conservative politicians. Deliberate and careful not to turn the party too far right as to move the Virginia center and independent vote to the center left.

This is of course exactly what happened once before in 2005 with the election of Democrat Tim Kaine  formerly Lt. Governor of Virginia and Mayor of Richmond City when the Republicans nominated Terry Kilgore as their candidate for Governor. Many Virginia Republicans moved left and supported Kaine whose message at the time appeared more moderate than even Governor Mark Warner's views who was elected Governor in 2001 defeating Mark Early.

Governor McDonnell proved to be the perfect political mix for Virginians within the coalition and his election in 2009 saw very little cross over voting on the part of Republicans. Governor McDonnell, a Virginia moderate in ever since, defeated Democrat-Conservative Creigh Deeds earning over 58% of the vote. No Governor in the 1997 - 2017 period earned a higher percentage of the vote than Bob McDonnell and yet the Republican Party of Virginia has ignored most of the lessons of the 2009 election. Though the Democrats have controlled the Governorship ever since McDonnell left office the State GOP leadership has remained relatively the same and many have been highly critical of the fact it is not a true supporter of President Trump.

In fact, President Trump lost Virginia in 2016 as did former Presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney and many attribute that to the fact that the Republican leadership did not truly support his candidacy and were in truth supporters of Jeb Bush(R) in the Republican primary. One year after Virginia supported President Obama for President and turning Virginia blue electorally for the first time in decades, Republican Bob McDonnell cleaned Creigh Deed's clock in 2009 winning with the highest margin (58%) even surpassing Jim Gilmore's 55% in 1997.

The election of 2009 demonstrated the manner in which a Virginia statewide campaign must be managed as opposed to the statewide campaign run by Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart ran for Senator. In losing in 2012, George Allen (R) earned 46.96% of the vote and in 2014 Ed Gillespie earned 48.34% but in 2017 in his bid for U.S. Senate Corey Stewart earned just 41% of the vote while Tim Kaine earned 57% increasing his voter count by almost six percentage points since his initial 2012 election won over George Allen (R).

How could Virginia Republicans go from the election of 2009 in which Governor Bob McDonnell won so handily over Creigh Deeds a rural, pro gun (at the time) Democrat with 58.63% of the vote to electing Democrats Tim Kaine (Senator) 52.87% in 2012, Terry McAuliffe (Governor) 47.74% in 2014 , Mark Warner (Senator) 49.15% in 2014 and re elect Tim Kaine (Senator) with 57% in 2017 as well as elect Ralph Northam to Governor with 53.90% in 2017?

The simple answer is nominating candidates like Corey Stewart. There are even some today who see Stewart as a "leader" in the Virginia conservative movement but his results in the 2017 election demonstrate just how far his ideological views are from most Virginians. Stewart ceded between eight to ten points away in his election in large part because he ignored the very underpinnings of the coalition that was keeping the Republican Party relevant in Virginia. The majority of Republicans in the Assembly did not share Stewart's "native" views, especially those Republicans whom had seen their support decline due to redistricting over the years in places like Northern Virginia where today no Republican holds office in the House of Delegates, Virginia Senate or House of Representatives where constituents reside in Fairfax County.

Corey Stewart fundamentally set back the Republican Party of Virginia a decade and as demographics of the Commonwealth change in the coming years it may take another decade to overcome him and his messaging.

The 8th, 10th, and 11th Congressional in Northern Virginia seats are all held by Democrats. Stewart is from Prince William County and served on its Board of Supervisors for over a decade and yet his voice failed to resonate with Virginians living in the very he served. Stewart lost to Tim Kaine (D) in his own county by a 65-33% margin in the area of Virginia that should have known Stewart best. Stewart lost Loudoun County 63-34% and Fairfax County 71-27 and in nearby Arlington and Alexandria Stewart topped out at about 20%. Stewart lost significantly in suburban areas like Henrico County and Chesterfield County as well as Virginia Beach.

In Fairfax County, which is the largest locality in Virginia has (17) seats in the House of Delegates and (9) seats in the Virginia Senate ALL held by Democrats. Not a single seat is held by a Virginia Republican and is a direct result of the post 2013 period in Virginia where the coalition that comprises the Party is crumbling.

Often there will be arguments that people like Sarvis, Redpath, Hyra, Waters and Potts are reasons why the Republicans lost elections. Their participation created three candidate races that many argue hurt Republican candidates but these assertions miss the greater point here and that is that these candidates were the expression from within the Republican Party itself of the crumbling taking place of the foundation that had once provided Republicans with victory. Sarvis gets the most criticism because in 2014 many argue his 2.43% cost Ed Gillespie a victory over Mark Warner. Warner won the Senate race in 2014 with 49.15%.

Yet where is it required for Libertarians in the coalition to support the Republican nominees they feel do not represent their value of liberty, ethics and freedom? Republicans have dismissed the views of Libertarians to such an extent that now the Libertarian Party of Virginia is growing its ranks. Republicans took advantage of the fact they could rely on the Libertarian vote because the Libertarian Party of Virginia does not always run candidates in every race and often get their votes when there is no official Libertarian candidate on the ballot. The fact that Sarvis earned 6.52% in a bid for Governor in 2013 and 2.43% in 2014 for Senate should have foreshadowed the coming reality for the State GOP. Many have further condemned Sarvis for the Ken Cuccinelli's loss in the race for Governor in 2013 where he earned 45.22% and Governor Terry McAuliffe earned 47.74% while Sarvis pulled in an historic 6.52% for a Libertarian in a statewide race.

Why the Republican leadership did not address the issue before them remains a mystery. The Libertarian ranks continue to grow, the Stewart faction of the Party continues to alienate voters and now you see the leadership distance itself from "maverick" Republican leaders like State Senator Amanda Chase (R) VA-11. Chase no longer caucuses with the Republican leadership which strip her of committee assignments of any relevance but has determined to run for Virginia Governor in 2021.

The State GOP has a real identity crisis on its hands now that has been building for over a decade in truth. Its messaging is completely inept given the current political landscape in Virginia. It continues to wither from within its own ranks as the coalition falls apart. One issue that has fueled this trend is the "gun sanctuary" movement that has swept the Commonwealth since November 2019. This movement brings Libertarian, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Conservatives together forming a roughly about a thirty percent block of the Republican Party. Senator Amanda Chase has been a vocal proponent of the movement while the majority of establishment Republicans have remained silent. Not only has this silence not gone unnoticed, it is fueling a rejection of the Liberal Republicanism that permeates the State GOP today. Some Republicans in the Assembly have actually gone along with various proposals counter to the Constitution and State Leadership has done little to address any of these issues with clear, concise leadership.

The identity crisis has spilled over into the once "conservative" media and blogosphere in Virginia where once Conservative pages no longer represent conservatism. Pages like Bearing Drift that claim to be conservative but in truth are now more Liberal Republicans who rarely support President Trump or The Republican Standard whose variety of conservatism is highly questionable given its closer alignment with the extreme views of the alt right especially in the areas of immigration similar to the Bull Elephant. These pages are less concerned with the Constitution in truth let alone personal liberty or freedom and where as The Bull Elephant makes a claim to being libertarian news as well as conservative it in no way represents fundamental libertarian values or ethics.

In 2020 the truth is that Republican Party of Virginia has no clear leader or voice. There appears to be little effort outside of the grassroots that are taking it upon themselves to mobilize from Republican leadership to address 2021 and House of delegate races let alone building a bridge within the coalition to ensure unity in the 2021 Governor's race.

What is clear is the State GOP must reject the "Stewart" and new advocate former conservative commentator Michelle Malkin who has been rejected my many conservative groups like Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) over her continued xenophobic assertions joining the "alt right" movement. Candidates like Senator Amanda Freeman Chase had better recognize that embracing that element will only detract from votes in a general election and ensure a Democratic victory once again. Chase would be wise to distance herself from that extremism all together going into the nominating process in 2021.

The campaign for Governor in 2021 must be issue-centric and focused on the areas of opportunity that exists that all Virginians can get behind solving. Examining the Bob McDonnell campaign of 2009 and heeding those lessons would be wise for any Republican nominee. If a candidate goes down that dark political road of social norming or messaging perceived as hateful or angry directed at groups like immigrants as in the case of the Stewart "alt right" fringes one thing is certain; the Democrats will win yet another statewide race in the Commonwealth of Virginia and more and more Libertarians, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Patriots will in fact "social distance" themselves from the Republican Party itself.

What Are We Learning From COVID-19?

First and foremost there is no denying the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. The recent revision by the media is frankly disturbing and mere political engineering on their own part to satisfy its own narratives. The fact remains and is unchanged China is responsible for the pandemic.

That said however does not excuse the fact that the pandemic is exposing the ugly truth that politicians (other than retired Rep. Ron Paul) have hid from Americans for decades. The fact that the politicians permitted the wholesale relocation of manufacturing of virtually all of our prescription drugs offshore and mostly to China.

You may have heard Virginia politicians clamor about prescription drug pricing reform like Rep. Abigail Spanberger from the VA07 who has made this issue a focal point of her tenure in Washington the last two years but has she ever acknowledged the fact that these drugs are not even manufactured here? No. In fact, in a recent town hall with constituents earlier this year she avoided the very question raised within the context of healthcare reform.

Six months ago if you conducted a poll there is no doubt that the majority would have no knowledge that China in fact was producing the majority of our prescription drugs. Even the very ones that American may desperately need in the midst of China shuttering factories in response to it own pandemic within its country.

In America, we are seeing a dedicated fear campaign and this cannot be understated. This campaign is set to set the stage that those seeking to increase the power of government can use to implement even more controls on society at the expense of freedom. Freedom of movement whether travel, attending a conference, a wedding or attending church services. The government has sought to institute measures like school closures and business closures which have in themselves done more to create even more fear resulting to strains of on the supply chain systems which often themselves originate in China. For example, how much of the goods sold on Amazon are manufactured in China?

The politicians have long ignored informing the public to the truth regarding China. It has not been since the election of Trump has China even been center stage with regard to trade. Now we are all beginning to see why the imbalance that Trump has highlighted is so significant.

When this crisis passes the question remains exactly what steps Congress will take to address China. The Democrats have been unwilling to do so for two decades and there is little thus far to make anyone believe they are capable of doing anything significant to address China instead they want to offer more bailouts. They will support stimulus of course as mere smoke and mirrors but will refuse to address the real problem that is America's dependence on China.

We are being told that we are not properly set up for pandemics and that somehow the Trump administration is to blame. Not unlike the same attacks blaming George W. Bush for 9/11  but that simplistic approach is mere political propaganda. The fact is the CDC has a budget well over 7 billion and in the the post Swine Flu pandemic of 2010 we have no revelations as to how much Obama really focused or dedicated in this area after more than 12,000 Americans died from H1N1 (Swine Flu).

The media refuses to report the truth regarding the Swine Flu pandemic. The truth is that the Obama Administration refused to acknowledge the pandemic as a national emergency almost six months after the CDC declared a public health emergency. The media is not concerned with informing the public as it should regarding how the Swine Flu was handled and how this pandemic is being handled. The fact that we are experiencing shortages of ventilators and respirators is not merely Trumps failure but the entire governments.

We have seen enough pandemics to know the realities we could face with them and yet government has ignored funding for hospital infrastructure in lieu of healthcare programs increasing access but not care.

We need to start examining how we got here and why we are here and who is taking advantage of this crisis and fleecing tax payers all across the country. The Democrats so focused on impeachment and then the Senate trial refused to even acknowledge the threat regarding what was being reported in China as early as December 2019. These same people want us to be reassured they have our best interests.

Monumental Betrayal: Virginia History A Thing of the Past

The betrayers of history.

That is in truth in what Virginia Democrats are doing. Why bother teaching history in schools anymore if the comments made by elected officials during this debate are what they truly believe. The Virginia War Memorials across the Commonwealth are not the real target by Virginia Progressives. Rather it is Virginia's history itself.

State Senator Locke called the history and the statues "stupid". Does Locke feel that way about all statues? What if at some point the other side of aisle in the future determines statues of others are "stupid". Or that a time comes when a majority says no more "Black History Month" or no more State Holidays for any individual of historical significance. What if fifty years from now Virginia is so removed from the Civil Rights movement that its actors are treated in the same light as figures from the Revolution or Civil War periods?

What is the prediction is true and the shifting of demographics as a direct result of immigration places in power new paradigms who will not identify with any of this history in truth. Not the Revolution , Civil War or any part of it because their ancestors were not even in America.

Virginia Democrats simply are extending a culture war that in the end all Virginian -like the hallowed ground of Civil War Virginia- every Virginian will lose.

It is ironic that the Virginia Democrats on the one hand would never support the removal of history as it pertains to the Civil Rights era or events like the Holocaust ----you see that would offend a constituency that votes Democratic 70% in America historically --- but they have little problem pushing for the removal of Virginia historical monuments they deem to be "stupid".

That becomes the new qualifier. Something deemed "stupid" by enough people can be removed.

Virtually every county in Virginia has a statue honoring those Virginians who lost their lives during the Civil War. Even in Richmond, Va General A.P. Hill's monument sits atop his grave site in the Northside. Does the city plan to remove Hill's body as well?

It is clear that the true hate is real. They claim that the monuments represent "hate" and are "stupid" but the truth is the real hate is on display this week on the floor of the Virginia General Assembly. A group of officials who turned a blind eye to the racism displayed by its own leadership in 2019 wants to deflect their true betrayal to Virginians onto monuments over one hundred years old.

Sen. Locke must be looking forward to a "Monumentless Ave" in Richmond. Progressives likely will celebrate and schedule a demolition event as the Lee and Jackson monuments fall. What they fail to realize we will not be losing monuments but in truth a part of all of us. Virginia has much to be proud of. Maybe nothing greater that overcoming our Civil War past though many want to keep reliving it. Senator Locke and others benefit from reliving it over and over. It creates divisions and that is the politics that is the emodiment of their real goals.

State Senator Mamie Locke (D)

Contact Information

district02@senate.virginia.gov

Legislative Staff

Theressa Parker; Chase Putney; Nia Saunders

Session Office

Pocahontas Building
Room No: E510
Senate of Virginia
P. O. Box 396
Richmond, VA 23218
Phone: (804) 698-7502
Fax: (804) 698-7651

Email

district02@senate.virginia.gov

District Office

P.O. Box 9048
Hampton, VA 23670
Phone: (757) 825-5880
Fax: (757) 825-7327

The 2020 Democratic Miscalculation Regarding the Minority Vote

In the wake of the Vice President Biden victory in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary, the Democrats appeared posed to make the same miscalculation they did in 2016 with regard to the Hillary Clinton campaign prospects of the minority vote delivering her the Presidency.

In 2016 Democrats generated all kinds of excuses regarding the Clinton loss. Most are fully aware of the Russian hoax advanced by Congressional Democrats but that two year long political disaster was merely masking the reality that Democrats and the media that are aligned with them refuse to face.

Democrats have long depended upon the African-American vote and continue to use this voting block as a significant messaging component regarding elections. In all likelihood Vice President Joe Biden will likely be forced by the establishment to opt for an African American woman to be his running mate. This is of course is being foreshadowed already  by the fact that Democratic media has been building the narrative around South Carolina's  Jim Clyburn's endorsement.

The notion that Rep, Jim Clyborn's (D-SC-6) endorsement has even been linked to Biden winning the Virginia Democratic Primary. This notion is highly misplaced. Biden had been polling higher in Virginia than the others lone before the endorsement and in fact the development that pushed Biden over 50% in Virginia had more to do with the Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out just days before the Super Tuesday and endorsing Biden. Mayor Pete had been projected to take about a dozen delegates in Virginia before his withdrawal from the race who never polled highly with minorities. In fact, the support for Biden  by minorities in Virginia was already baked into the polling for Biden weeks before Super Tuesday.

While the Democrats have been in a bitter primary race, Donald Trump has been growing and expanding his support especially with minorities. In 2016 Trump earned 8% of the African American vote which was greater than both John McCain and Mitt Romney Presidential runs. Trump has been reaching out for the minority vote over the last year and the reports and polling being advanced by the leftist media simply does not represent the reality on the ground. Recent rallies by the Trump campaign have witnessed growing number of minorities at a time when Politico has reported under performing with black voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/24/blackpac-poll-democrats-117243

The fact is the current metrics demonstrated that Trump is poised to double his 2016 percentage of support from minorities. Hillary Clinton while winning the overall minority vote percentage wise did not see the same number come to the polls as President Obama did in 2008 or 2012. There is no reason to expect that blacks will return to the polls in 2020 at the levels of 2008 or 2012 either and frankly very well may come in less than 2016.

The biggest issue facing the Democrats and one they are not even addressing with their campaign narratives is while they keep targeting a declining black voter block they are largely ignoring the growing Hispanic block. The Hispanic voter turnout has increased by one percent each and every election cycle since 2000. The block has increased three percent turnout since President Bush won in 2004. In 2016 the overall Hispanic turnout was 11% versus the black voter blocks 12%. The black voting block has been greater than the Hispanic one in every election since 2000 however this appears likely to change in 2020.

The Hispanic vote in 2020 will surpass that of the African-American  voting block for the first time in American political history.

The Democrats are not even addressing this trend at all during their primary. In Texas on Super Tuesday some of these trends are revealed in truth that demonstrate some real division in the Democrat camp. 3 out of 5 black voters in Texas supported Biden while only 2 out 5 Hispanics supported Sanders which aided him in his victory by offsetting Sanders Hispanic support in the state. Biden won overwhelmingly in the older demographic while Sanders won the significant younger voting block. Biden only defeated Sanders by about three percent overall based largely on the black vote which represents just a fifth of the voting turnout in Texas. There has been very little outreach  y Biden campaign as of yet in truth to Hispanics while the Trump campaign in Texas has been working for months on building a ground game there.

Trump earned 1.8 million votes in his primary which eclipsed the top six Democrats combined in the Democratic Primary and a large number of his supporters came from the growing Hispanic voting  block in the Texas.

Consider some historic metrics over the past twenty years.

2000 the overall black vote was 10% of voter turnout while Hispanic was 7%
2004 the overall black vote was 11% of voter turnout while Hispanic was 8%
2008 the overall black vote was 13% of the voter turnout while Hispanic was 9%
2012 the overall black vote was 13% of the voter turnout while Hispanic was 10%
2016 the overall black vote declined to 12% while the Hispanic vote rose to 11%

I predict the black voter turnout in 2020 to decline to 11% overall whereas the Hispanic vote to continue its upward trend to 12%. The Hispanic block has also witnessed the larger new voter registration efforts ever undertaken by Republican campaigns before with dedicated programs in large Hispanic areas of the country.

The Trump campaign is also opening many targeted offices for the purposes of attracting more of the black vote than ever before for a Republican. Trump has delivered record employment for both voting blocks as well as major criminal justice reform. The community opportunity zones being implemented have been supported by many black leaders as well.

It is not inconceivable to see Trump earn somewhere between 13-15% of the overall black vote and raise his performance with the Hispanic vote to 35-38% from earning 28% in 2016 based on the current polling and approval ratings of the President.

Much of course will depend on whether Democrats nominate Vice President Biden or Bernie Sanders but it cannot be overstated that the fluidity in places like Texas and Florida is real. In 2004 President Bush earned 13% of the black vote and in Texas 16%. Bush also earned 14% of the black vote in North Carolina. If Trump secures that rate of support he will handily win all three of those states in 2020.

So for the Democrats to overly concentrate on and keep extending the narrative post Super Tuesday regarding the "black vote" it will once again be a total miscalculation by the Democrat National Committee which thus far has proved they are way behind the Trump campaign in 2020 in terms of activism and engagement.

Roper Center for Public Opinion Research:
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016

2A Call to Arms: Join Local Committees and Virginia Militias

The groundswell of 2A grassroots has resulted in over 100 Virginia localities to adopt resolutions to protect citizens from the radical, extreme agenda being proposed  by Virginia Democrats this  General Assembly session in Richmond.

"Lobby Day" this year at the State Capital drew well over sixty thousand Second Amendment supporters from dozens of states from across the country. These supporters put a national spotlight on the gun control measures  being proposed by Virginia Democrats having secured the majority control in Richmond last November.

Dozens of 2A groups have formed all over the Commonwealth of Virginia and many of them have group pages on facebook. This movement has connected 2A supporters all across the Commonwealth resulting now in many new county militias being formed. Jennifer Bailey of Louisa County is one of the biggest organizers and proponents of the Virginia Militia Alliance. Jonathan Scott has organized the #2AStrong Movement in Virginia and Corey Hodges has organized the Chesterfield County 2A Preservation Society in one of Virginia's largest suburban counties in the state. These groups are all growing members and the militia groups are beginning to hold their first drilling days.

The Virginia Democrats have been organizing behind close doors hoping to weather the storm. The have had some bill deferred but have had many successes in Richmond. "Red Flag" and "One Gun a month" bills have passed through the Assembly. Some Republicans have even defected to join the Democrats in these measures.

While the grassroots is generating alot of support and assisting in identifying the many proposals that are alarming to Virginia voters there is much more that MUST be done. The political process is about power. While on "Lobby Day" power in numbers was demonstrated, it has largely been forgotten already by Richmond. Democrats and Republicans have both gone about their business as usual in Richmond.

So what is the solution?

It not just Lobby Day sadly.

The solution lies in your locality.

Many 2A supporters showed up to 2A rallies and meeting to influence local Board of Supervisors in passing "gun sanctuary" resolutions that has resulted in over one hundred such resolutions being adopted. While it was a massive success, the reality is the real power that 2A supporters must concentrate their sights on are the local political committees that reside within the localities they live. These are the true political power apparatuses that influence not only the locality but also the district in terms of future candidates.

If 2A supporters are serious about having political power than it is this local committees that must be joined in mass with the hopes of winning control so that the political positions supporting freedom and liberty are preserved. The power of these committees cannot be understated.


This committees all across the Commonwealth are full of false Republicans. While they may claim to be Republican they are certainly far from being Conservative let alone Constitutional Conservatives. many of these committees are full of "Never Trumpers" that did not work on behalf of the Trump campaign in their localities that resulted in Trump losing to Hillary Clinton in Virginia by five points.

This is why you have not seen President Trump in Virginia much sicne 2016.

But beware the move to the 2A theme in 2020. Elections on the horizon 2A Supporters need to not blindly buy the messaging. There are plenty of gun owners in the Assembly in Richmond that frankly are not pushing for less restriction but more.

Beware the opportunists. Some experience that in Chesterfield Rally late last year. Politicians are savy. Even more savy are the ones who claim to not be "politcians" but are the worst kind of politcial animals.

As it stands the 2A groups have determined that as of today the one and only true 2A fighter in Virginia on any ballot is Delegate Nick Freitas but there are a few others that deserve a nod as well but many are not aware of them.

Thomas Anthony Specialle found here https://www.facebook.com/thomas.speciale  running for U.S. Senate.

Aliscia Andrews found here : https://www.facebook.com/andrewsforcongress/  (Marines)

Andrew Knaggs found here:  https://www.facebook.com/AndrewKnaggsVA/   (Army)

Madison Downs found here :https://www.facebook.com/MadisonDownsforCongress/   (Marines)

So what can 2A supporters do today?

They can join their local Republican Committees and get involved. By doing so, the voice of the 2A movement will continue to be heard  and doubters will not be able to silence the movement like they did to the Tea Party Movement.

The 2A Movement has gained a ton of momentum but the special interest and establishment are betting that the movement will die out in 2020.

Supporters of the Second Amendment cannot let that happen.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/ (Chasing Victory in Virginia)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/virginiamilitiaalliance/   Virginia Militia Alliance)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/429364747755341/   (Chesterfield County 2A Preservation Society)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/578238489390036/   (#2AStrong in Virginia)

Tommy Norment(R) Fails Conservatives; Amanda Chase Rallies Them!

This Virginia General Assembly this session demonstrates that when it comes to Virginia politics nothing ever is set in stone. In the face of over fifty thousand Virginians showing up at the Virginia State Capital in January to voice their opposition to extreme gun control legislation being proposed by Governor Ralph Northam (D) and the Virginia Democrats some Republicans either have not gotten the message or are simply have chosen to ignore it.

This week the Virginia Democrats advanced House Bill 421 delivered to the Virginia Senate. The controversial bill was simply yet another extreme Progressive gun control measure proposed  by Democrats who continue to propose legislation that in other states have either been rejected or have been challenged in the courts and found to be a violation of the Constitution.

Not a single Republican sponsored House Bill 421 which was fully endorsed by the usual anti-Constitutionlist Delegate Mark Levine VA-45 (Arlington) and Speaker of the House Delegate Eileen Filler-Corn (Fairfax). The bill passed the House of Delegates 50-48 with 2 non voting.

NO REPUBLICANS in the House supported the bill and (3) Democrats voted against it and (2) Democrats did not cast a vote (NV).
https://legiscan.com/VA/rollcall/HB421/id/911508

The bill summary:
"Control of firearms by localities. Grants localities authority to adopt or enforce an ordinance, resolution, or motion governing the possession, carrying, storage, or transporting of firearms, ammunition, or components or combination thereof in the locality. Various provisions limiting such authority are repealed. Provisions limiting the authority of localities and state governmental entities to bring lawsuits against certain firearms manufacturers and others are also repealed"

In the Virginia Senate, the Republican Senate Minority Leader Tommy Norment broke with every single Republican in the General Assembly to support the measure and join with the Progressive Democrats. Norment represents the Virginia 3rd Senate District:

Third District VA3 District Profile: Gloucester County (All), New Kent County (All), King and Queen County (All), King William County (All), Poquoson City (All), Isle of Wight County (Part), James City County (Part), Surry County (Part), York County (Part), Hampton City (Part), Suffolk City (Part)

Senator Norment : district03@senate.virginia.gov
                                      Phone: (804) 698-7503

This is not the first time that Norment has determined to fail Virginia Conservatives. In 2019, Senator Norment failed to support fellow Republican Amanda Freeman Chase in her re-election bid in the Virginia 11th District in the suburbs of Richmond. Norment chose to contribute to over a million in campaign donations to other Republicans but neither Norment nor the Senate Caucus or Leadership Committee contributed to Chase.

Norment has been in the Virginia Senate since 1992 and only twice in recent cycles has been primaried by a fellow Republican. Norment was challenged by Paul Jost in 2003 and then by Mark Frechette in 2011 in the Republican Primaries those years. Now Virginia Conservatives are looking to find a candidate to challenge Norment once again in 2023. Norment should heed the warning that the mobilization that is underway throughout the Commonwealth. Nothing like this has been seen in Virginia since the Tea Party movement that took out Congressman Eric Cantor (R) in the Virginia 7th by over ten points in 2014.

While Senator Norment is being high criticized for not only his vote but his leadership that resulted in the Republican Party losing the majority in the Virginia Senate last November, State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) is growing a groundswell of support throughout Virginia.

Conservatives are recognizing that Senator Chase's criticisms of Republican leadership are now born out by the actions being undertaken. Very few Republican Senators have embraced the 2A movement sweeping Virginia. Amanda Freeman Chase had a pro active role in "Lobby Day" and has become a central figure in the fight against the assault on the Constitution by Democrats. Virtually no other Republican officials are speaking to the hundreds of thousands of Virginia mobilizing rallies, attending local meetings and building militias. The Virginia Militia Alliance has grown exponentially since last Fall and have been virtually ignored by the Republican Party. A Republican Caucus that appears to have run completely away from not only President Trump but the Constitution.

Norment is not alone in defection to the Democrats on legislation this session. State Senator Siobhon Dunnavant (R-VA12) is also under scrutiny for her voting record that many Virginia Conservatives have called into question. These leaders while remaining champions of the establishment class and Bearing Drift have lost the confidence of the grassroots Conservative movement afoot.

Norment in 2019 came under criticism for being one of eight editors for the Virginia Military Institute's "BOMB" publication containing objectionable content similar to the pictures releases depicting Governor Ralph Northam (D) wearing "blackface" from his medical school yearbook. in 1981. While Norment's role in his colleges publication in 1968 was certainly a different time, many contend that Governor Northam was not held accountable by the Republican leadership in 2019 because both Norment and Northam attended the Virginia Military Institute which has a long tradition in Virginia politics.

Given the massive extremism witnessed by Virginia Conservatives coming from Richmond today, many asserting that Northam may not have even been able to push this agenda had Republican leadership not failed to hold the Governor accountable. Conservatives are reminded what the Democrats did to former Governor Bob McDonnell (R) over gifts in which they attacked the Governor's integrity non stop.

Senator Amanda Freeman Chase who is not caucusing with the Republicans in the Virginia Senate and has been completely removed from the Senate Caucus page is resonating with Virginia Conservatives. The warnings that Chase asserted during the campaign of 2019 have become reality. While other Republicans dismissed her warnings of the onslaught of Progressive proposals that would result when the Democrats took majority it is quickly becoming apparent that the minority has little to no messaging or oppositional strategy. Meanwhile, Amanda Freeman Chase is resonating all over the Commonwealth with Virginia Conservatives.

Chas(e)ing the Nomination in Virginia: State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R)

Seeking to capitalize on the growing level of "Virginia Populism" all across the Commonwealth of Virginia, State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) has announced her intention to run for the Republican nomination for Governor of Virginia four months ago on the steps of the State Capital.

Discussions here Chase for Governor: https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

Senator Chase announced her intentions on Monday standing on the historic steps of the Virginia State Capital on the very afternoon that the Virginia Senate Judiciary Committee voted down one of the most radical, extremist gun control measures ever introduce in Virginia political history. House Bill 961 that was sponsored in the Virginia House of Delegates by Progressive Delegate Mark Levine representing the 45th House District located in Arlington and Alexandria. HB 961 in effect would ban all "assault" style weapons or as Delegate characterizes as "weapons of war" as well as any and all sale of magazines that could hold twelve rounds or more of ammunition. Possession of these items would constitute a felony.

House Bill 961 was simply a similar version of Senate Bill 16 sponsored by Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw of Fairfax County that the Senator had pulled from consideration thus avoiding any debate on the matter in the Senate. Instead, Virginia Democrats in Richmond used the Levine Bill as a vehicle in the House first and then reviewed in committee by the Senate. The bill failed in committee 10-5 after four Democrats moved right and joined Republicans in opposition.

During the Campaign of 2019, Amanda Freeman Chase was one of the very few Republicans who did not run away from President Trump. Chase defeated a heavily funded challenger afer which Chase decided to no longer caucus with the Republican Party.

This means in effect Chase really is not recognized nor treated as a GOP legislator and does not meet with the others in the caucus nor is part of the communication. Chase was stripped of all her previous committee assignments save one once the Democrats took control. Chase in essence is a island in the Virginia Senate like Sander's in the U.S. Senate who in truth is an independent not a Democrat. Chase has done little to reunite with the GOP in 2020 and recent statements from the GOP appear to illustrate hat they remain unsupportive of her .

Chase's decision was made when the Republican leadership that lost control of the majority of both chambers in the Virginia General Assembly for the first time in almost two decades remained intact post election. The Republicans determined in effect to continue with "business as usual". The Leadership had failed to understand just how poor the messaging was in 2019 and determined to run the campaigns in the same manner they always had while the Democrats had evolved and implemented new innovative campaign mechanisms and infrastructure.

One other major factor little reported by the media is the failure of the Republican leadership to even fund the re-election bid of Senator Amanda Freeman Chase. While supporting other Republican Senate candidates the leadership chose not to assist Chase in her efforts. There were even rumors in early 2019 that the leadership was attempting to find someone to primary Senator Chase in a Republican primary. Chase had defeated long time friend of the leadership in Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary before the 2015 election cycle. The Chase victory in that primary came has as one of the most historic local races and only surpassed in Virginia politics by Congressman David Brat's upset of them Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R) in a Congressional Republican primary.

If you examine the campaign contributions in 2019 amidst one of the most heated political campaign seasons in thew history of Virginia, it is clear that the Republican leadership was unwilling to provide the level of support to Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that leadership provided others. Some have attempted to argue that this was a direct result of polling throughout the campaign that indicated that Chase had at least a four point lead in her race as late as August 2019, however it was after this polling that the Republican Party of Virginia in fact made several contributions in the amount beginning in September through October totally seventy seven thousand. That being said, the leadership and Senate political action committees failed to support Chase at all while supporting multiple other Republican candidates,

State Senators right next door to Chase's district in both the 10th and 12th  were provided support via the  Republican Party of Virginia and received enormous support from Republican State Leadership Committee and the Virginia Senate Republican Caucus. In fact Senate Majority Leader Thomas "Tommy" Norment's Senate Leadership/Candidate Committee failed to support Chase yet made heavy contributions in the districts next door to Chase's.

These are the facts relating to the level that the State GOP failed to support Senator Amanda Freeman Chase:

The Norment for Senate committee supported Senator Dunnavant VA12 with 231,00 and Senator Sturtevant VA10 with 709,750. Zero for Chase.

The Republican State Leadership Committee contributed 345,000 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 631,957. Zero for Chase.

The Virginia Senate Republican Caucus contributed 460,500 to Senator Dunnavant and
to Senator Sturtevant 591,059. Zero for Chase.

**Dunnavant would win her re-election bid by about 1% over Delegate Debra Rodman while Sturtevant lost his seat in the Senate by 9 points**

There is little indication that the Va GOP will support Chase in 2021 thus far.

Many Virginians  following Chase's lead have grown very suspicious of Senator Dunnavant who in 2020 General Assembly session appeared to betray the contingent of Second Amendment supporters that campaigned on her behalf and supported her in Hanover County which is were the precincts that thrust her to re-election. Many supporters now on social media have flooded groups with buyers remorse given Dunnavant has cast votes that her challenger in 2019 very well would have cast.

The questions regarding the failure to support Senator Chase are rampant on social media. Chase supporters have become enraged at the Republican Party and the failure of leadership to contribute last November merely double downed on constituent suspicions of the State GOP that resulted after Senator Chase resigned from the Chesterfield County Republican Committee over committee rules relating to membership being required to support/endorse any GOP nominee within the county. Chase failed to endorse a GOP nominee in Karl Leonard for Sheriff instead opting for another option thus alienating herself from her own local committee.

Nevertheless and without any true party support, Senator Amanda Freeman Chase won re-election in 2019 by about nine points over Progressive Amanda Pohl. The race for the seat was one of the most contentious on social media in 2019. One thing that supporters love about Chase is her determination to never back down in a fight. This character trait has never bode well for the "good ole boy" establishment which  behind the scenes has always wish to in effect silence Chase who never seemed capable in their eyes of staying in line with the leadership.

The division between leadership and Chase intensified following the 2019 election. Given nothing according to Chase was addressed by the leadership with regard to the lost majority, Chase walked away. The Republicans would keep the status quo even after the leadership failed to keep control of the Assembly and failed to advance true conservative agendas in the 2019 Assembly session. In fact, the leadership remained quiet regarding Governor Northam's racist "blackface" circumstance as well as Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax had sexual assault allegations levied against him by two women from his own party. Republicans sat on their hands. Failed to push for investigation by committees in the Assembly they controlled. Meanwhile, Republicans all over Virginia sat watching the House of Representatives in Congress levy investigation after investigation against President Trump.

While  Chase never ran away from Trump in 2019 many others did. Nor did she shy away from calling out Governor Northam and Lt. Governor Fairfax and the Democratic hypocrisy relating to those politicians. Chase won handlily in a pro-Trump 2016 district in 2019.

The announcement to run for Governor in 2021 certainly raises Senator Amanda Freeman Chase's profile across Virginia but it also highlights the beginning of a splintering of the Republican Party of Virginia at large. Chase has an ability to speak to those that are frustrated with the State GOP and there is certainly a new coalition forming. The movement mirrors that of the Tea Party Movement back in 2010-12 in Virginia and the Republican leadership should take notice.


It has been Senator Amanda Freeman Chase that has been leading much of the opposition. Chase recently was scolded by Senator Janet Howell (D) of Fairfax County for using her social media to communicate Assembly business to Virginians. The truth is the transparency is not something that either leadership in the Assembly prefer but Chase has determined to deliver it. Chase has in effect made political enemies on both sides of the aisle. Chase asserted that anyone in the Assembly supporting such draconian measures like red flag laws could only be characterized as "traitors to Virginia". Howell's response has been to see to it that Amanda Freeman Chase's sponsored bills have been shelved.

The response by Senator Howell is indicative of the manner in which the new majority is conducting business in the Virginia General Assembly. Supporters of Chase were quick to point out that Howell ultimately was disenfranchising representation of Virginians that live in the Virginia 11th by not permitting the bills sponsored by Chase in committee for consideration.  These tactics may be acceptable in Fairfax County by its overwhelming Democrat majority but all across Virginia this is not how the "Peoples House" is supposed to work and how Virginia business is to be conducted. Howell actually has fueled even grater opposition to her Party and contributed to the awakening that is underway going into the elections of 2020 this Fall.

 

VA07 GOP Primary Contenders 

There is little doubt that Chase will be out this Summer.There is some uncertainty whether the State GOP leadership will get behind Trump this summer. Trump lost Virginia to Hillary Clinton in 2016 but won many of the Congressional Districts like the Virginia 7th held by Democrat Abigail Spanberger since 2018.  Spanberger appears vulnerable for the Democrats in 2020 as Spanberger supported impeachment, supports gun control measures pushed in Richmond and failed to support a pay raise for the military through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in Congress. Spanberger will need support of Chesterfield County in the 2020 Election. As it stands today, Tina Ramirez and Andrew Knaggs appear to be the front runners for the GOP nomination to face Abigail Spanberger however Nick Freitas is gaining ground and funding.

The 2021 Governor's race is almost twenty one months away so Senator Chase has amble time to form her own coalition while building bridges of support with others in the upcoming 2020 Election all across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Chase would be wise to campaign across Virginia in 2020 and connect with other areas of the Commonwealth. Supporters have already taking to social media to drive her brand and raise her identification across the state. A facebook group was created in late January called "Chase for Governor 2021" and already has over eleven thousand members and growing.

Follow here on social media tot stay informed.

https://www.facebook.com/TurnVARedAgain/   The Conservative State

https://www.facebook.com/Chase-for-Governor-2021-115057180190139/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/999287823791649/