The Real Division of the Virginia GOP: Senate Bill 868

No single bill in the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session represents the growing division within the Virginia Republican Party than Senate Bill 868.

The Republican Party of Virginia is quickly approaching a cross roads that will forever shape the Party for a generation or more. There has been little examination by Republican Leadership in Richmond to address the factors that contributed to the loss of the majority in the General Assembly after holding it for almost three decades. Media outlets took the lead on the easy analysis regarding last November in terms of turnout claimed to have delivered the Virginia Democrats its new majority in both the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate.

The deeper analysis speaks to the contributing factors that thus far the Republican Party of Virginia has been unwilling to either accept or refuses to address with its messaging. In fairness, the issue is not across the board within the elected ranks of the Party but a divide exists that is being exasperated by the social conservative elements continual displeasure with the fiscal conservatives who have little interest in elevating social issues to the top of the platform. The social conservative messaging while have appeal to a significant percentage of the Party has not broaden the recruitment of Republican candidates especially in Northern Virginia. The policy positions of the social conservative wing of the Party are not align with the growing population of Northern Virginia where Republicans no longer hold a single seat in areas where they once dominated especially in the House of Delegates. For example, there is not a single seat in the General Assembly held by a single Republican representing any district from Fairfax County. Fairfax is the largest locality in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

In 2019, the Republican Party failed to attract, recruit and run candidates in over thirty races across the Commonwealth. This would be a hard enough issue to face moving forward but with the greater divisions growing within the Party along ideological lines it very well could boil over to disaster for the Virginia GOP in 2021. In 2021, seats in the House of Delegates will be back on the ballot along with the Governor's race in Virginia. The Republican nominee to run for Governor very well could have a direct impact on all the down ballot races.

The growing trends demonstrate the registering of younger voters especially in suburban areas. Indications from the Democratic Primary on Super Tuesday show that more and more younger voters are engaged at a time when the Virginia Republican Party is becoming older and more rural where frankly the populations do not compare to the higher density urban areas where Democratic candidates are dominating. These fact translates to a muddy picture for future statewide races for Republican candidates without broad support from the electorate and that includes younger families.

Virginia population is continuing to climb and will approach nine million in the coming decades. The majority of the population increase is coming in Northern Virginia where Republicans are already losing support. Support that now is said to have fallen below 30% for the first time in over forty years within the region. The demographics of the region that many  believe ultimately will determine all statewide races moving forward is changing. The region is becoming much more diverse than every before.

By 2030 every single "Baby Boomer" in Virginia will be 65 years old or older. The largest and fastest growing ethnic population in Northern Virginia is Asian followed by the Hispanic population. In Fairfax County alone the immigrant population is exploding. The Asian American population now represents 19.3% and the Hispanic American population represents 16.4% in Fairfax County far exceeding the African American population.

Fairfax, Loudoun and Arlington are some of the wealthiest counties in all of America yet the Republican messaging is now not resonating. Localities with medium incomes that now have reached two times the national average continue to vote Democratic. Is the Republican Party of Virginia incapable of appealing to these voters? Is the Party trying to appeal to them with its messaging? Or have elements within the Party turned voters off with the so called "principled" positions that have deep traditional ties to the moral majority of previous political eras?

If the messaging regarding immigrants and other demographics within our country are any indication than there appears to be a true lack of understanding and leadership from the Republican Party of Virginia regarding the future political landscape of Virginia. If the "Conservative" rank and file want to continue their efforts to politically alienate Virginia voters the direct result certainly will be a continuation of the statewide defeats during general election ballot boxes.

Today while the majority of the GOP appears willing to put the safety and welfare of Virginians before politics and support Governor Northam regarding the pandemic shutdown, the opportunists within the Party are attempting to rile up the conservative base with rhetoric that totally paints the Party as a whole as dysfunctional. While this may rally people to causes of course and raise the level of certain politicians it also will create a bitter taste for most Virginians who do not believe that the shutdown is someone being orchestrated as an assault of religion across the Commonwealth.

These attempts further reinforce the controversial positions that the conservative wing of the Republican Party of Virginia have taken in recent years. Last year it was a concerted effort to condemn immigrants. Conservatives failed to craft a consistent message regarding "illegal" or "unlawfully present" aliens but rather came across attacking all immigrants in Virginia while demonstrating support for border wall security.

During the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session, Social Conservative leaders within the Virginia GOP decided to in effect support discrimination. That will come as a shock to many within the Party but the actions of the minority within the Party will forever characterize the entire Party during upcoming elections. The history of the Republican Party and its fight for civil rights and that legacy continues to be undermined by votes taken by the social conservative wing of the Party. How could social conservatives break with the Republican leadership on such a crucial issue in Virginia and one that the majority of Virginian support?

Senate Bill 868 was proposed to address " unlawful discrimination in public accommodations and employment in the Virginia Human Rights Act. Currently, under the Act there is no cause of action for discrimination in public accommodations, and the only causes of action for discrimination in employment are for (i) unlawful discharge on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, or childbirth or related medical conditions including lactation by employers employing more than five but fewer than 15 persons and (ii) unlawful discharge on the basis of age by employers employing more than five but fewer than 20 persons. The bill allows the causes of action to be pursued privately by the aggrieved person or, in certain circumstances, by the Attorney General. Before a civil cause of action may be brought in a court of the Commonwealth, an aggrieved individual must file a complaint with the Division of Human Rights of the Department of Law, participate in an administrative process, and receive a notice of his right to commence a civil action. The bill prohibits discrimination in public and private employment on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. The bill also codifies for state and local government employment the current prohibitions on discrimination in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, age, marital status, disability, or status as a veteran. Additionally, the bill (a) prohibits discrimination in public accommodations on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran; (b) prohibits discrimination in credit on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, disability, and status as a veteran; and (c) adds discrimination on the basis of an individual's sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran as an unlawful housing practice."

The bill clearly is designed to prevent discrimination in Virginia with regard to housing, public accommodation , and employment on basis of sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, national origin, and even veteran status. How could any Republican not support such protections from discrimination?

Does the Republican Party really want to take the position that Virginia families with children that identify with a certain gender or transgender or a particular sexual orientation should grow up in a Virginia where their civil rights are meaningless? That they have to tell their children as they grow up that in Virginia they can be discriminated against or worse are not protected? Do those who claim to be taking the "principled" position of support for discrimination really think that Virginians are going to accept their position as anything other than bigotry? At the same time these very same Republicans reject the Equal Rights Amendment, they fail to either understand or comprehend the optics of these positions upon younger families throughout Virginia.

The following Republicans supported Senate Bill 868 which passed the General Assembly:
Cosgrove, Dunnavant, Hanger, Kiggans, Norment, Vogel--

The following Republicans voted against Senate Bill 868:
Chafin, Chase, DeSteph, McDougle, Newman, Obenshain, Peake, Pillion, Reeves, Ruff, Stanley, Stuart, Suetterlein

Should the Republican Party of Virginia wish to run on a voting record of supporting discrimination against the very populations that are growing in Virginia that is the message that is being sent loud and clear with policy position being taken in the Assembly.

Much of governance is compromise. What has been displayed in recent years in Richmond by Republican lawmakers is an unwillingness for many to compromise. This inability some argue cost the Republican Party the majority in the General Assembly. Virginians have been moving in the opposite direction and the demographics moving forward in Virginia warrant a new message to attract supporters not detract them.

The 2021 Assembly and Governor's race provide a critical opportunity to articulate a new Republican message for Virginians; ALL Virginians.

The Not-So Silent Fight for the Soul of the Virginia GOP

                                                                      

The Republican Party of Virginia has always been a coalition of forces keeping the Party together sharing a majority of common interests. The coalition has historically been comprised of Virginians that lean center-right, fiscal Conservative and Libertarian as well as the social Conservatives that typically are characterized as the "far right".

There has been a concerted effort by elements of the Republican Party to fight for control of the Party voice for almost a decade if not longer. For almost thirty years, the Republican Party kept a balance that existed between all this elements but over the last two years divisions have formed. One such division has been carefully orchestrated by State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R-11) from Chesterfield County.

Over the last year, Senator Chase has determined to fight a two front war. One front against the Virginia Democrats who are moving Virginia in a very progressive direction and a second front against the Republican Party itself. Chase has been using the Second Amendment 2A Sanctuary Movement in an attempt to broaden her appeal from her social conservative base. Chase began wearing her firearm to the Assembly and anoited herself as a champion of the Second Amendment. Chase has not garnered as much recognition from the Virginia 2A community as Delegate Nick Freitas from Culpeper County has in Congressional campaign in the Virginia Seventh District.

Delegate Nick Freitas  ran for Republican nomination for United State Senate in 2018 but lost narrowly in the Republican primary to Corey Stewart. I was clear from the outset that the low turnout of the primary in 2018 would come back to haunt the Virginia GOP as Stewart had little traction in earning any votes from the middle or independents. All those votes went to Senator Tim Kaine (D). Freitas would have had broader appeal to the Virginia electorate and many believe that if he is unsuccessful at the Seventh District nominating convention that Nick Freitas should run for Governor in 2021.
A Freitas run for Governor would have him in effect running for the Republican nomination against a Corey Stewart-style candidate  again with little to no messaging other than division. Senator Chase is the only declared Republican candidate thus far for the Governor's race and she has patterned her campaign thus far after Corey Stewart's 2018 failed campaign.

There have been some draft measures to attempt to get other GOP offcials to consider a run for the nomination. Former Congresswoman Barbara Comstock and State Senator Jill Vogel are two that many Republicans appear willing to support as well.

An examination of the Senator Chase official facebook page demonstrates that she is determined to not only make her campaign about defeating Northam's proposals but also defeat her own Party. Chase determined in November to leave the State Republican Caucus in the Virginia General Assembly and late summer of last year her own county committee removed her. The Chesterfield County Republican Committee (CCRC) removed Chase for violating the rules governing membership.

Chase wears these things as a kind of "badge of honor" and calls them "principled" positions but Chase fails to realize that governing is about coalitions and bringing people together. Chase has failed to demonstrate an ability to compromise even with the Republican Leadership in Richmond. Chase a waged an all out war on her colleagues in the Virginia Senate failing to seek any common ground or working relationships.

In every instance last session in the General Assembly, Senator Chase drove a wedge between herself and other Republicans who may have voted opposite of her "principles". Chase managed to actually endorse discrimination in Virginia not only in the workplace but with regard to housing, public accommodation but also access to credit.

Think of the message that sends to Virginians. Chase's "principled" positions are based solely on her faith based belief systems. Many have called her actions in support of her faith as mere "proselytizing" thus alienating those whom do not share the same belief systems as her. Chase's facebook page smacks of the very same things that undermined Corey Stewart and Chase has refused to be a calming voice when individuals call for "lynchings" of the opposition or more of the same xenophobic tropes that merely move voters further left.
Chase has determined to fight this two front battle with very little financial resources according to VPAP. She has raised less than ten thousand dollars according to people close to the campaign after declaring for the Governor's face in late January. Elected officials cannot raise money while the Assembly is in session so the next quarter should demonstrate a better gauge on where the Chase campaign truly is.

Virginia Republicans have their eyes on this November and understand the importance of ensuring a Trump re-election as long as taking back some of the Congressional seats lost in 2018. Republicans can only accomplish that if they remain united and not divided by the petty divisions that are driving the Party today. Chase clearly wants to define herself as a "Conservative" and not a "Republican" if her facebook page is any indication of what is ahead.

Senate Leadership had no desire to support Chase in 2019 during her campaign and there appears little appetite within the Republican Caucus to support an Amanda Freeman Chase nomination. Many in the Republican Party understand there is a battle being waged today and while it is not for votes it is assuredly for the soul of the Virginia Republican Party.

The Real Uncertainty: The Future of Virginia's Bond Ratings

The Coronavirus 2020 shutdown ordered by Governor Ralph Northam (D) continues in the Commonwealth of Virginia with very little push back from the leaders in the Virginia General Assembly. Virginia continues to feel the effects of an "essential business only" Executive Order by Northam directly impacting every locality in the Commonwealth of Virginia and the underlying businesses in those localities that support them and provide the necessary revenue required for them to perform government services at the local level.

While so many questions remain,  the biggest one is why has the Governor nor any member of the General Assembly sought to address the evolutionary impact of this shutdown by calling for a summit or leadership round table meeting to address the direct impacts on small business and local and state government alike?

Where is the true leadership being demonstrated to take Virginia out of this crisis financially? Other than suspending the implementation of the new budget, what has been advanced as anything remotely appearing as a  bipartisan solution to come to the aid of Virginians?

Both the Commonwealth and local governments derive much of its operating revenues from consumer spending and the taxes that are derived from such activity. The Commonwealth requires "sales taxes" while many local governments require "food taxes" and other taxes joined with the Commonwealth to fund government services. As a result of lost revenue, small business operators will not make tax obligations nor continue to employ Virginians thus eliminating "payroll taxes". Transportation tolls (road taxes) have all but dried up as a result of the shutdown as well and with so few Virginians on the roads with "stay at home" orders the revenue generated from the "gas tax" has fallen substantially.

Why has their not been an economic team assemble to address how Virginia will come out of this shutdown now anticipated to be June or even July? Where are the plans to address the shortfalls experienced at the local level which desperately requires revenue to sustain itself. Revenue that Governor Northam is currently denying them with his executive orders.

The biggest question than no one in the Assembly is raising is what will be the impacts of the shutdown on the bonds issued by the Commonwealth and the ratings levels that these bonds had in late 2019 compared to what they will be at the end of this year. If those ratings decline and in all likelihood they will across the board in many states as well as local governments throughout Virginia, the capacity to borrow and the costs of borrowing will only increase thus costing the Commonwealth millions more than ever anticipated.


"Bonds are used in the Commonwealth of Virginia to finance the costs of long term capital improvements throughout the state. The Commonwealth does not use bonds to close budget gaps or fix cash flow problems. Virginia bonds are primarily used for new construction and improvements at our institutions of higher education, transportation and port facilities, schools and state park and correctional facilities. Investing in Virginia bonds supports these endeavors, and interest paid to bond holders is exempt from Virginia income taxation, and in most cases, federal income taxation.

The Commonwealth's general obligation bonds are currently rated AAA/Aaa/AAA by Fitch, Moody's and Standard and Poor's rating agencies respectively. Rating agencies focus on several key factors in assessing a state's credit quality: control of debt burden, economic vitality/diversity, fiscal performance, and administrative capabilities. Most of the Commonwealth’s appropriation supported bond programs, which require an annual appropriation for debt service, are rated one notch below the general obligation bonds at AA+/Aa1/AA+. This would include bonds issued by certain state authorities, such as the Virginia Public Building Authority and the Virginia College Building Authority" (Virginia Treasury, Virginia.gov)

The following is a typical rating scale for bonds issued by government entities:

Aaa	Obligations rated Aaa are judged to be of the highest quality, subject to the lowest level of credit risk.
Aa	Obligations rated Aa are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low credit risk.
A	Obligations rated A are judged to be upper-medium grade and are subject to low credit risk.
Baa	Obligations rated Baa are judged to be medium-grade and subject to moderate credit risk and as such may possess certain speculative characteristics.
Ba	Obligations rated Ba are judged to be speculative and are subject to substantial credit risk.
B	Obligations rated B are considered speculative and are subject to high credit risk.
Caa	Obligations rated Caa are judged to be speculative of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk.
Ca	Obligations rated Ca are highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery of principal and interest.
C	Obligations rated C are the lowest rated and are typically in default, with little prospect for recovery of principal or interest.

This above scale happens to be for the reputable Moody's rating service.

Virginia Performs, originally developed by the Council on Virginia's Future (2004-2017), was a performance leadership and accountability system within the Virginia state government whose goal was to evaluate government financial performances and outcomes in order to inspire and support Virginians toward healthier lives and strong and resilient families. It basically evaluated the government independently.

Virginia Performs took the data and demonstrated how government was impacting the lives of Virginians and most especially the quality of life in Virginia. It focuses on all the aspects of government from education, work force, transportation to finance. If a role or function of government was performed than Virginia Performs examined the outcomes.

Today, where is the true oversight coming from regarding the actions that the Governor or the General Assembly are implementing?

Where is there an economic adviser summit being called for by Governor Northam or the Republican leadership in Richmond?

The Council of Virginia's Future existed from 2004-2017. It began with a vision to guide the future taking into account responsible economic growth, quality of life, good government and all well educated electorate seeking to shape the future of Virginia in a dedicated, positive manner and direction.

"Virginia Performs" performed an essential role in informing Virginians as to the financial health of the Commonwealth of Virginia and provided a website as part of the Virginia.Gov site to dissimilate information to Virginians regarding State finances.

Virginia Performs however was "sunset" on July 1, 2017. This was done while the Republicans in Virginia controlled the majority of seats in the Virginia General Assembly in Richmond. This begs the question now whether this was in fact in the best interest of the Commonwealth.

A state's bond rating influences how much taxpayer money the state can save by securing competitive loans; it also serves as a measure of a state's financial and administrative status. Virginia's AAA bond rating, the best rating possible, is a reflection of the confidence placed in the Commonwealth's fiscal health.

"Virginia's bond rating allows it to borrow money at the most competitive rates available. Having a good credit rating means Virginia can save millions of taxpayer dollars in interest payments when it finances debt, such as borrowing for construction costs. With less interest to pay, Virginia's resources can be used where needed, and the state can maintain its favorable tax rates for citizens and industries.

Bond ratings are also a measure of a state's financial reputation. Finance professionals conduct a rigorous examination of a state's fiscal management practices over a significant period of time and express their level of confidence in that state’s ability to safely meet its scheduled interest and principal repayments. A bond rating of AAA is highest (best), and D is lowest (worst). A high bond rating makes the state's bonds more attractive to investors.

Note: A bond is an investment instrument through which an investor loans money to a public or private entity in return for earning interest. Typically, the interest a bond issuer must pay the purchaser is higher when the risk that the issuer will not be able to repay the loan is greater. Three major rating firms conduct research and set a rating based on their assessment of the risk that the loan will not be repaid as scheduled. This rating then influences the amount of interest the bond issuer must pay the investor" (Virginia Performs 2017)

A variety of factors can influence a bond rating, including:

• The amount of debt a state holds in relation to the size and health of its overall economy.
• A state's long-term financial management practices, including whether it meets its interest and principal repayments on time and has a back-up plan to make sure it can meet its obligations.
• Changing economic conditions that result in lower state revenues.
• Inaccurate forecasting that fails to anticipate revenue shortfall.

Virginia's bond rating is the responsibility of its governmental leadership. The executive and legislative branches must cooperate to ensure that Virginia's practices are sound by:

• Planning strategically.
• Independently studying problem areas and recommending sound improvement strategies.
• Accurately forecasting expenditures and revenues.
• Borrowing prudently.
• Objectively monitoring fiscal processes and procedures.

No one is talking about the impact this shutdown will have long term on Virginia financials and in effect its bond ratings. This fact should scare every Virginian because as ratings on bonds fall it is historically significant that taxes rises on citizens both at the state and local levels.

J.Scott

The Distancing of Corey Stewart: The Only Path to Victory

The Republican Party of Virginia is at a crossroads.

The Republicans find the coalitions that were created decades ago showing signs of wear and some have argued that the very foundation is crumbling. The loss of the majority in both chambers of the Virginia General Assembly crystallized this very point as many Republicans stayed home from the polls in a critical election year to determine control of government in Virginia.

The coalition that delivered so many victories for the Republican Party of Virginia has been one consisting of fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, libertarians and Republicans which many now describe as "liberal" Republicans. The last major victory for the coalition was the election of Governor Bob McDonnell in 2009 however there were signs years before that the coalition was being held together by some of the best and oldest Virginia conservative politicians. Deliberate and careful not to turn the party too far right as to move the Virginia center and independent vote to the center left.

This is of course exactly what happened once before in 2005 with the election of Democrat Tim Kaine  formerly Lt. Governor of Virginia and Mayor of Richmond City when the Republicans nominated Terry Kilgore as their candidate for Governor. Many Virginia Republicans moved left and supported Kaine whose message at the time appeared more moderate than even Governor Mark Warner's views who was elected Governor in 2001 defeating Mark Early.

Governor McDonnell proved to be the perfect political mix for Virginians within the coalition and his election in 2009 saw very little cross over voting on the part of Republicans. Governor McDonnell, a Virginia moderate in ever since, defeated Democrat-Conservative Creigh Deeds earning over 58% of the vote. No Governor in the 1997 - 2017 period earned a higher percentage of the vote than Bob McDonnell and yet the Republican Party of Virginia has ignored most of the lessons of the 2009 election. Though the Democrats have controlled the Governorship ever since McDonnell left office the State GOP leadership has remained relatively the same and many have been highly critical of the fact it is not a true supporter of President Trump.

In fact, President Trump lost Virginia in 2016 as did former Presidential candidates John McCain and Mitt Romney and many attribute that to the fact that the Republican leadership did not truly support his candidacy and were in truth supporters of Jeb Bush(R) in the Republican primary. One year after Virginia supported President Obama for President and turning Virginia blue electorally for the first time in decades, Republican Bob McDonnell cleaned Creigh Deed's clock in 2009 winning with the highest margin (58%) even surpassing Jim Gilmore's 55% in 1997.

The election of 2009 demonstrated the manner in which a Virginia statewide campaign must be managed as opposed to the statewide campaign run by Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart ran for Senator. In losing in 2012, George Allen (R) earned 46.96% of the vote and in 2014 Ed Gillespie earned 48.34% but in 2017 in his bid for U.S. Senate Corey Stewart earned just 41% of the vote while Tim Kaine earned 57% increasing his voter count by almost six percentage points since his initial 2012 election won over George Allen (R).

How could Virginia Republicans go from the election of 2009 in which Governor Bob McDonnell won so handily over Creigh Deeds a rural, pro gun (at the time) Democrat with 58.63% of the vote to electing Democrats Tim Kaine (Senator) 52.87% in 2012, Terry McAuliffe (Governor) 47.74% in 2014 , Mark Warner (Senator) 49.15% in 2014 and re elect Tim Kaine (Senator) with 57% in 2017 as well as elect Ralph Northam to Governor with 53.90% in 2017?

The simple answer is nominating candidates like Corey Stewart. There are even some today who see Stewart as a "leader" in the Virginia conservative movement but his results in the 2017 election demonstrate just how far his ideological views are from most Virginians. Stewart ceded between eight to ten points away in his election in large part because he ignored the very underpinnings of the coalition that was keeping the Republican Party relevant in Virginia. The majority of Republicans in the Assembly did not share Stewart's "native" views, especially those Republicans whom had seen their support decline due to redistricting over the years in places like Northern Virginia where today no Republican holds office in the House of Delegates, Virginia Senate or House of Representatives where constituents reside in Fairfax County.

Corey Stewart fundamentally set back the Republican Party of Virginia a decade and as demographics of the Commonwealth change in the coming years it may take another decade to overcome him and his messaging.

The 8th, 10th, and 11th Congressional in Northern Virginia seats are all held by Democrats. Stewart is from Prince William County and served on its Board of Supervisors for over a decade and yet his voice failed to resonate with Virginians living in the very he served. Stewart lost to Tim Kaine (D) in his own county by a 65-33% margin in the area of Virginia that should have known Stewart best. Stewart lost Loudoun County 63-34% and Fairfax County 71-27 and in nearby Arlington and Alexandria Stewart topped out at about 20%. Stewart lost significantly in suburban areas like Henrico County and Chesterfield County as well as Virginia Beach.

In Fairfax County, which is the largest locality in Virginia has (17) seats in the House of Delegates and (9) seats in the Virginia Senate ALL held by Democrats. Not a single seat is held by a Virginia Republican and is a direct result of the post 2013 period in Virginia where the coalition that comprises the Party is crumbling.

Often there will be arguments that people like Sarvis, Redpath, Hyra, Waters and Potts are reasons why the Republicans lost elections. Their participation created three candidate races that many argue hurt Republican candidates but these assertions miss the greater point here and that is that these candidates were the expression from within the Republican Party itself of the crumbling taking place of the foundation that had once provided Republicans with victory. Sarvis gets the most criticism because in 2014 many argue his 2.43% cost Ed Gillespie a victory over Mark Warner. Warner won the Senate race in 2014 with 49.15%.

Yet where is it required for Libertarians in the coalition to support the Republican nominees they feel do not represent their value of liberty, ethics and freedom? Republicans have dismissed the views of Libertarians to such an extent that now the Libertarian Party of Virginia is growing its ranks. Republicans took advantage of the fact they could rely on the Libertarian vote because the Libertarian Party of Virginia does not always run candidates in every race and often get their votes when there is no official Libertarian candidate on the ballot. The fact that Sarvis earned 6.52% in a bid for Governor in 2013 and 2.43% in 2014 for Senate should have foreshadowed the coming reality for the State GOP. Many have further condemned Sarvis for the Ken Cuccinelli's loss in the race for Governor in 2013 where he earned 45.22% and Governor Terry McAuliffe earned 47.74% while Sarvis pulled in an historic 6.52% for a Libertarian in a statewide race.

Why the Republican leadership did not address the issue before them remains a mystery. The Libertarian ranks continue to grow, the Stewart faction of the Party continues to alienate voters and now you see the leadership distance itself from "maverick" Republican leaders like State Senator Amanda Chase (R) VA-11. Chase no longer caucuses with the Republican leadership which strip her of committee assignments of any relevance but has determined to run for Virginia Governor in 2021.

The State GOP has a real identity crisis on its hands now that has been building for over a decade in truth. Its messaging is completely inept given the current political landscape in Virginia. It continues to wither from within its own ranks as the coalition falls apart. One issue that has fueled this trend is the "gun sanctuary" movement that has swept the Commonwealth since November 2019. This movement brings Libertarian, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Conservatives together forming a roughly about a thirty percent block of the Republican Party. Senator Amanda Chase has been a vocal proponent of the movement while the majority of establishment Republicans have remained silent. Not only has this silence not gone unnoticed, it is fueling a rejection of the Liberal Republicanism that permeates the State GOP today. Some Republicans in the Assembly have actually gone along with various proposals counter to the Constitution and State Leadership has done little to address any of these issues with clear, concise leadership.

The identity crisis has spilled over into the once "conservative" media and blogosphere in Virginia where once Conservative pages no longer represent conservatism. Pages like Bearing Drift that claim to be conservative but in truth are now more Liberal Republicans who rarely support President Trump or The Republican Standard whose variety of conservatism is highly questionable given its closer alignment with the extreme views of the alt right especially in the areas of immigration similar to the Bull Elephant. These pages are less concerned with the Constitution in truth let alone personal liberty or freedom and where as The Bull Elephant makes a claim to being libertarian news as well as conservative it in no way represents fundamental libertarian values or ethics.

In 2020 the truth is that Republican Party of Virginia has no clear leader or voice. There appears to be little effort outside of the grassroots that are taking it upon themselves to mobilize from Republican leadership to address 2021 and House of delegate races let alone building a bridge within the coalition to ensure unity in the 2021 Governor's race.

What is clear is the State GOP must reject the "Stewart" and new advocate former conservative commentator Michelle Malkin who has been rejected my many conservative groups like Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) over her continued xenophobic assertions joining the "alt right" movement. Candidates like Senator Amanda Freeman Chase had better recognize that embracing that element will only detract from votes in a general election and ensure a Democratic victory once again. Chase would be wise to distance herself from that extremism all together going into the nominating process in 2021.

The campaign for Governor in 2021 must be issue-centric and focused on the areas of opportunity that exists that all Virginians can get behind solving. Examining the Bob McDonnell campaign of 2009 and heeding those lessons would be wise for any Republican nominee. If a candidate goes down that dark political road of social norming or messaging perceived as hateful or angry directed at groups like immigrants as in the case of the Stewart "alt right" fringes one thing is certain; the Democrats will win yet another statewide race in the Commonwealth of Virginia and more and more Libertarians, Constitutional Conservatives and Liberty Patriots will in fact "social distance" themselves from the Republican Party itself.

What Are We Learning From COVID-19?

First and foremost there is no denying the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. The recent revision by the media is frankly disturbing and mere political engineering on their own part to satisfy its own narratives. The fact remains and is unchanged China is responsible for the pandemic.

That said however does not excuse the fact that the pandemic is exposing the ugly truth that politicians (other than retired Rep. Ron Paul) have hid from Americans for decades. The fact that the politicians permitted the wholesale relocation of manufacturing of virtually all of our prescription drugs offshore and mostly to China.

You may have heard Virginia politicians clamor about prescription drug pricing reform like Rep. Abigail Spanberger from the VA07 who has made this issue a focal point of her tenure in Washington the last two years but has she ever acknowledged the fact that these drugs are not even manufactured here? No. In fact, in a recent town hall with constituents earlier this year she avoided the very question raised within the context of healthcare reform.

Six months ago if you conducted a poll there is no doubt that the majority would have no knowledge that China in fact was producing the majority of our prescription drugs. Even the very ones that American may desperately need in the midst of China shuttering factories in response to it own pandemic within its country.

In America, we are seeing a dedicated fear campaign and this cannot be understated. This campaign is set to set the stage that those seeking to increase the power of government can use to implement even more controls on society at the expense of freedom. Freedom of movement whether travel, attending a conference, a wedding or attending church services. The government has sought to institute measures like school closures and business closures which have in themselves done more to create even more fear resulting to strains of on the supply chain systems which often themselves originate in China. For example, how much of the goods sold on Amazon are manufactured in China?

The politicians have long ignored informing the public to the truth regarding China. It has not been since the election of Trump has China even been center stage with regard to trade. Now we are all beginning to see why the imbalance that Trump has highlighted is so significant.

When this crisis passes the question remains exactly what steps Congress will take to address China. The Democrats have been unwilling to do so for two decades and there is little thus far to make anyone believe they are capable of doing anything significant to address China instead they want to offer more bailouts. They will support stimulus of course as mere smoke and mirrors but will refuse to address the real problem that is America's dependence on China.

We are being told that we are not properly set up for pandemics and that somehow the Trump administration is to blame. Not unlike the same attacks blaming George W. Bush for 9/11  but that simplistic approach is mere political propaganda. The fact is the CDC has a budget well over 7 billion and in the the post Swine Flu pandemic of 2010 we have no revelations as to how much Obama really focused or dedicated in this area after more than 12,000 Americans died from H1N1 (Swine Flu).

The media refuses to report the truth regarding the Swine Flu pandemic. The truth is that the Obama Administration refused to acknowledge the pandemic as a national emergency almost six months after the CDC declared a public health emergency. The media is not concerned with informing the public as it should regarding how the Swine Flu was handled and how this pandemic is being handled. The fact that we are experiencing shortages of ventilators and respirators is not merely Trumps failure but the entire governments.

We have seen enough pandemics to know the realities we could face with them and yet government has ignored funding for hospital infrastructure in lieu of healthcare programs increasing access but not care.

We need to start examining how we got here and why we are here and who is taking advantage of this crisis and fleecing tax payers all across the country. The Democrats so focused on impeachment and then the Senate trial refused to even acknowledge the threat regarding what was being reported in China as early as December 2019. These same people want us to be reassured they have our best interests.

Monumental Betrayal: Virginia History A Thing of the Past

The betrayers of history.

That is in truth in what Virginia Democrats are doing. Why bother teaching history in schools anymore if the comments made by elected officials during this debate are what they truly believe. The Virginia War Memorials across the Commonwealth are not the real target by Virginia Progressives. Rather it is Virginia's history itself.

State Senator Locke called the history and the statues "stupid". Does Locke feel that way about all statues? What if at some point the other side of aisle in the future determines statues of others are "stupid". Or that a time comes when a majority says no more "Black History Month" or no more State Holidays for any individual of historical significance. What if fifty years from now Virginia is so removed from the Civil Rights movement that its actors are treated in the same light as figures from the Revolution or Civil War periods?

What is the prediction is true and the shifting of demographics as a direct result of immigration places in power new paradigms who will not identify with any of this history in truth. Not the Revolution , Civil War or any part of it because their ancestors were not even in America.

Virginia Democrats simply are extending a culture war that in the end all Virginian -like the hallowed ground of Civil War Virginia- every Virginian will lose.

It is ironic that the Virginia Democrats on the one hand would never support the removal of history as it pertains to the Civil Rights era or events like the Holocaust ----you see that would offend a constituency that votes Democratic 70% in America historically --- but they have little problem pushing for the removal of Virginia historical monuments they deem to be "stupid".

That becomes the new qualifier. Something deemed "stupid" by enough people can be removed.

Virtually every county in Virginia has a statue honoring those Virginians who lost their lives during the Civil War. Even in Richmond, Va General A.P. Hill's monument sits atop his grave site in the Northside. Does the city plan to remove Hill's body as well?

It is clear that the true hate is real. They claim that the monuments represent "hate" and are "stupid" but the truth is the real hate is on display this week on the floor of the Virginia General Assembly. A group of officials who turned a blind eye to the racism displayed by its own leadership in 2019 wants to deflect their true betrayal to Virginians onto monuments over one hundred years old.

Sen. Locke must be looking forward to a "Monumentless Ave" in Richmond. Progressives likely will celebrate and schedule a demolition event as the Lee and Jackson monuments fall. What they fail to realize we will not be losing monuments but in truth a part of all of us. Virginia has much to be proud of. Maybe nothing greater that overcoming our Civil War past though many want to keep reliving it. Senator Locke and others benefit from reliving it over and over. It creates divisions and that is the politics that is the emodiment of their real goals.

State Senator Mamie Locke (D)

Contact Information

district02@senate.virginia.gov

Legislative Staff

Theressa Parker; Chase Putney; Nia Saunders

Session Office

Pocahontas Building
Room No: E510
Senate of Virginia
P. O. Box 396
Richmond, VA 23218
Phone: (804) 698-7502
Fax: (804) 698-7651

Email

district02@senate.virginia.gov

District Office

P.O. Box 9048
Hampton, VA 23670
Phone: (757) 825-5880
Fax: (757) 825-7327

The 2020 Democratic Miscalculation Regarding the Minority Vote

In the wake of the Vice President Biden victory in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary, the Democrats appeared posed to make the same miscalculation they did in 2016 with regard to the Hillary Clinton campaign prospects of the minority vote delivering her the Presidency.

In 2016 Democrats generated all kinds of excuses regarding the Clinton loss. Most are fully aware of the Russian hoax advanced by Congressional Democrats but that two year long political disaster was merely masking the reality that Democrats and the media that are aligned with them refuse to face.

Democrats have long depended upon the African-American vote and continue to use this voting block as a significant messaging component regarding elections. In all likelihood Vice President Joe Biden will likely be forced by the establishment to opt for an African American woman to be his running mate. This is of course is being foreshadowed already  by the fact that Democratic media has been building the narrative around South Carolina's  Jim Clyburn's endorsement.

The notion that Rep, Jim Clyborn's (D-SC-6) endorsement has even been linked to Biden winning the Virginia Democratic Primary. This notion is highly misplaced. Biden had been polling higher in Virginia than the others lone before the endorsement and in fact the development that pushed Biden over 50% in Virginia had more to do with the Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropping out just days before the Super Tuesday and endorsing Biden. Mayor Pete had been projected to take about a dozen delegates in Virginia before his withdrawal from the race who never polled highly with minorities. In fact, the support for Biden  by minorities in Virginia was already baked into the polling for Biden weeks before Super Tuesday.

While the Democrats have been in a bitter primary race, Donald Trump has been growing and expanding his support especially with minorities. In 2016 Trump earned 8% of the African American vote which was greater than both John McCain and Mitt Romney Presidential runs. Trump has been reaching out for the minority vote over the last year and the reports and polling being advanced by the leftist media simply does not represent the reality on the ground. Recent rallies by the Trump campaign have witnessed growing number of minorities at a time when Politico has reported under performing with black voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/24/blackpac-poll-democrats-117243

The fact is the current metrics demonstrated that Trump is poised to double his 2016 percentage of support from minorities. Hillary Clinton while winning the overall minority vote percentage wise did not see the same number come to the polls as President Obama did in 2008 or 2012. There is no reason to expect that blacks will return to the polls in 2020 at the levels of 2008 or 2012 either and frankly very well may come in less than 2016.

The biggest issue facing the Democrats and one they are not even addressing with their campaign narratives is while they keep targeting a declining black voter block they are largely ignoring the growing Hispanic block. The Hispanic voter turnout has increased by one percent each and every election cycle since 2000. The block has increased three percent turnout since President Bush won in 2004. In 2016 the overall Hispanic turnout was 11% versus the black voter blocks 12%. The black voting block has been greater than the Hispanic one in every election since 2000 however this appears likely to change in 2020.

The Hispanic vote in 2020 will surpass that of the African-American  voting block for the first time in American political history.

The Democrats are not even addressing this trend at all during their primary. In Texas on Super Tuesday some of these trends are revealed in truth that demonstrate some real division in the Democrat camp. 3 out of 5 black voters in Texas supported Biden while only 2 out 5 Hispanics supported Sanders which aided him in his victory by offsetting Sanders Hispanic support in the state. Biden won overwhelmingly in the older demographic while Sanders won the significant younger voting block. Biden only defeated Sanders by about three percent overall based largely on the black vote which represents just a fifth of the voting turnout in Texas. There has been very little outreach  y Biden campaign as of yet in truth to Hispanics while the Trump campaign in Texas has been working for months on building a ground game there.

Trump earned 1.8 million votes in his primary which eclipsed the top six Democrats combined in the Democratic Primary and a large number of his supporters came from the growing Hispanic voting  block in the Texas.

Consider some historic metrics over the past twenty years.

2000 the overall black vote was 10% of voter turnout while Hispanic was 7%
2004 the overall black vote was 11% of voter turnout while Hispanic was 8%
2008 the overall black vote was 13% of the voter turnout while Hispanic was 9%
2012 the overall black vote was 13% of the voter turnout while Hispanic was 10%
2016 the overall black vote declined to 12% while the Hispanic vote rose to 11%

I predict the black voter turnout in 2020 to decline to 11% overall whereas the Hispanic vote to continue its upward trend to 12%. The Hispanic block has also witnessed the larger new voter registration efforts ever undertaken by Republican campaigns before with dedicated programs in large Hispanic areas of the country.

The Trump campaign is also opening many targeted offices for the purposes of attracting more of the black vote than ever before for a Republican. Trump has delivered record employment for both voting blocks as well as major criminal justice reform. The community opportunity zones being implemented have been supported by many black leaders as well.

It is not inconceivable to see Trump earn somewhere between 13-15% of the overall black vote and raise his performance with the Hispanic vote to 35-38% from earning 28% in 2016 based on the current polling and approval ratings of the President.

Much of course will depend on whether Democrats nominate Vice President Biden or Bernie Sanders but it cannot be overstated that the fluidity in places like Texas and Florida is real. In 2004 President Bush earned 13% of the black vote and in Texas 16%. Bush also earned 14% of the black vote in North Carolina. If Trump secures that rate of support he will handily win all three of those states in 2020.

So for the Democrats to overly concentrate on and keep extending the narrative post Super Tuesday regarding the "black vote" it will once again be a total miscalculation by the Democrat National Committee which thus far has proved they are way behind the Trump campaign in 2020 in terms of activism and engagement.

Roper Center for Public Opinion Research:
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016