The Need for Dollars Makes for Strange Alliances

                      Does the Republican Party of Virginia need a complete overhaul?

In 2018, The Virginia GOP lost seats in Congress in historically right-leaning districts and then in 2019 lost control of the majority in Richmond. The Republicans have failed to control the Executive in Virginia since  election of 2009.

As it stands, the 2020 crop of Republican candidates are an impressive combination of diversity. This diversity however does that appear to be something that the Republican Party of Virginia seeks to highlight or use to change the narrative regarding the party that is constantly being portrayed by the opposition as non-inclusive. This diversity should be the very thing that the Party highlights in its campaigns to change the image of the Party that the Virginia Democrats have owned for the last decade.

The Republican Party of Virginia has not recovered in truth from the optic disaster of Charlottesville in 2017 placed sqaure at its foot and President Trump's. It has ceded the narrative to the Virginia Democrats crafted by former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) that that event was representative of the Virginia GOP. Few arguments were made of course  by the GOP in large part due to the fact that party consultants feared alienating those groups that ultimately would be funding campaigns with contributions. Something proving harder to come by.

One thing is clear is there is no unifying message with the Virginia GOP from the top down. Each campaign underway in 2020 appears to have its own identity while having to contend with a heavily funded message coming from Virginia Democrats seeking to hold the gains won in 2018. It further does not help that the messaging coming out of the campaign for the only declared Republican for Governor in 2021 at the same time is taking shots at the GOP Leadership on a weekly basis unwittingly doing the Demcorats job for them. It recently even took a shot at former Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (R).

It also does little help to any of the 2020 Congressional candidates that the only Republican declared thus far for the Governor's race next year is aligning with the very alt right groups behind Charlottesville in 2017. Reviewing the official pages of those running for Congress and the declared candidate for Governor it is easy to identify that the Virginia GOP has real issues centered around identity. While the Congressional candidates are speaking to policy, the Chase for Governor campaign is speaking to divisions and blame. The latest fundraising efforts of the latter are targeting fringe groups of the alt right for support and the old Corey Stewart coalition of hard liners who can only be described as nativists. Some have claimed that Chase is forming a "Tactical Vest" Army.

Its a dictomy that is lost on the lone GOP candidate for Governor. While the Congressional candidates in places like the Virginia 10th need to attract support from minorities, immigrants and suburban women, the Chase for Governor campaign is alienating them by the week. It is clear that the Chase for Governor campaign has made a strategic determination not to condemn the alt right groups but instead fundraise off them. This in effect places the entire Republican platform in 2020 in jeapardy.

The initial contribution reporting likely will demonstrate the small donor base of the Chase for Governor campaign thus far in 2020 and while the campaign very well may characterize it as a grassroots support the devil will be in the true details concerning where those donations are coming from. Known alt groups on social media are aligning with the messaging of the Chase for Governor campaign.

The impact of the divisions with the Virignia GOP will not really be fully understood until November. Losses by Congressional candidates will simply just embolden those that support Chase and her campaign by misunderstanding they have contributed to the very losses due to poor alignment with those seeking Congressional seats.

Aliscia Andrews (R) is one such Virginian running for the nomination in the Virginia 10th to face Jennifer Wexton (D) who defeated Barabara Comstock (R) in 2018. Andrews is a former Marine and has a strong Second Amendment supporter base but her base in the 2A movement is not the fringe alt right that often times may align with it. Andrews supporters are Constitution loving Virginians; not anarchists. There is a difference. The 2A movement is much broader than how it has been characterized in the media. Its more than merely those that will rally in tactical gear and armed. Its farmers, hunters, rural families and countless others in Virginia that simply want to get back to embracing liberty and freedom. These Virginians are not alt right wingers or Corey Stewart followers. This is easily demonstrated in the results of the 2018 Virginia Senate race in which Stewart lost handily to Tim Kaine (D) by almost 600,000 votes. Four years prior Republican Ed Gillespie lost to Senator Mark Warner by less than 20,000 votes in 2014.

Does the Republican Party of Virginia want to repeat that performance in 2021? Does it wish to suffer a third straight Executive "trifecta" loss in Virginia? This summer will be a critical crossroad for the Virignia GOP. It must prove to Virginians that it can pivot.

How Do You Solve A Problem Like "Amanda" Chase?

All of us remember the nuns in The Sound of Music right?  Remember the nuns singing "How de we solve a problem like Maria"? Well the Republican Party of Virginia clearly has its own problem and its not Maria. Its Amanda.

Amanda Freeman Chase (R) that is.

I hate to have to say it
But I very firmly feel
"Amanda's" not an asset to the abbey( "Party")

I'd like to say a word in her behalf
"Amanda" makes us laugh

How do you solve a problem like  " Amanda"?
How do you catch a cloud and pin it down?
How do you find a word that means "Amanda"?
A flibbertijibbet! A will-o'-the wisp! A clown!

Many a thing you know you'd like to tell her
Many a thing she ought to understand
But how do you make her stay
And listen to all you say.....

(Original song by Rogers and Hammerstein from 1959 Sound of Music)

How dow we solve a problem like Amanda? 

State Senator Chase (R) is brazen and she wears it like a badge of honor. Her colleagues in the Virginia Senate characterize her as rash, spiteful and a "loose canon". Chase often dismisses these opinions of her demeanor in the Senate and plays up the "fighter" in her with a " I am not going to take it anymore" attitude. Meanwhile the Senator appears no longer respected by her own Party's leadership, no longer caucuses with the Republicans in the Senate and no longer is even recognized as a member of her own county Republican committee.

There is brazen and then there is political suicide. Chase even recently went so far as have a scuff up with her own supporters group created on behalf on facebook after moderators refused to cower to her demands regarding membership. It seems while Chase took extreme issue with how her membership was handled locally by the Chestefield GOP, she had little problem with attempting to control the membership and the content of a grassroots supporter group. Once moderators rejected her demands, Chase determined to more or less do what Chase typically does in her rash fashion and took to facebook to delegitmize the very people who created and ran the supporters group. This wasn't just rash but displayed her childish nature so many in Richmond have attributed to her.

Chase had been counting on leveraging the Second Amendment Sanctuary Movement in Virginia. Chase touted her record with the VCDL and the NRA at many rallies and many were obliged to join her in the fight against infrigements on Constitution rights. The biggest issue for Chase is the fact thus far it appears she has been unable to harness that movement as it translates to donations of support while other prominent leaders in the movement have generated much broader appeal and acceptance. 

For example, recent political contributions found on the Virginia Public Access Project demonstrate how Delegate Nick Freitas and Delegate John McGuire serving in the Virignia House of Delegates have dominated to space in terms of donations. Both men are running for the nomination in the Virginia Seventh for Congress. Freitas has raised $627,078 and McGuire $318,222. Chase recently endorsed Freitas for the nomination. Some considered the endorsement as a hedge against Freitas given his election in the Virginia Seventh is uncertain in the hope Freitas would not run for Governor in 2021 himself. Freitas formerly ran for the nomination to run for U.S. Senator losing to Corey Stewart in a primary.

The fundraising and donations for the Chase campaign appear marginal at best. According to many politcial historians a candidate must raise at the very least a million dollars to even have an realistic chance of securing the nomination in a statwewide race. While Chase has over a year until the June primary for the nomination one thing is clear; Chase has some real problems.

Chase's biggest challenge is herself. Chase has mastered the "attack dog" with the loud "bark" or the "fighter" personnas but that rarely translates to victory in Virignia. Chase would assert she is a proven "winner" having won the Virginia 11th two times and defeating and established Republican in her first race during the primary but what is lost on her message is Chase is still campaigning in the 11th. Chase is still speaking at her own district and has not embraced the reality that she will require to expand her message beyond a seventy percent pro-Trump district.  It does not take Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" to show that that message will have a very hard time resonating with Virginians in 2021. Even President Trump had a very hard time winning over the areas required to win in Virginia and lost by almost six points statewide. However, Trump in 2020 has raised almost four million dollars in his re-election bid which also creates an issue for other candidates fundraising.

Notwithstanding, Virignians have a tradition of sorts of electing a Governor opposite of the party of the sitting President with one recent exception. That was Governor Terry McAuliffe who defeated the Virginia GOP in a race many did not think he would in large part because of the campaign waged by the GOP. A campaign that many believe that Chase has already determined to run again hoping for a diffrent outcome.

But lets be clear. While Chase wishes to characterize herself as a populist. Chase is not Trump. No one is or can ever hope to be anymore than any one on the left could hope to be Obama. Attempting to present oneself as being such will only end in disappointment. Chase today appears more like Corey Stewart to most Virignians. Recently, Chase took it upon her self to "investigate" the accussation by a lone "fishing report" page from North Carolina that Governor Northam was vacationing there duyring the pandemic crisis. Chase launched a video on her official page concerning the page's claim that went viral. Her video arguably insinuated the Governor was sneaking away to his beach house while Virignians were locked down by his orders. While this circumstance certianly may have played well with her core base of support, it also had the opposite effect on most Virginians that saw the whole thing as a mere stunt.

The claim regarding Northam was dismissed within a day of the video going viral and hade to be walked back yet it simply reinforced yet another situation where Chase promised something and never delivered. Chase was widely criticized when it became clear her effort to Recall Governor Northam was nothing more than a publicity stunt to raise her political id in Virginia. Northam's recent approval polling undertaken by Virginia Commonwealth University demonstrates three out of four Virginians polled approve of the manner in which Northam ha conducted the responses to the pandemic crisis. The Chase campaign remais  locked in a battle of a war that will never be fought. Northam will not be her opposition in 2021 and one potential opponent former Governor Terry McAuliffe had much better approval ratings throughout his tenure than Northam has had.

Senator Chase while clearly the most focal in Richmond has not translated that voice into any success in 2020. Not a single one of her sponsored pieces of legislation in 2020 became law and she cast votes that certainly will alienate both Independents and Libertarians that may vote Republican and are always needed as part of any statewide coalition. Chase has been in a bitter battle with her own leadership since 2019 and it is clear that the leadership is not going to place any eggs in her basket in a run for Governor. Speculation abounds that the centrists in the Republican coaltion are desiring more competent and savvy candidate options while others would like to see Pete Synder return for another run. The Libertarians will be paying close attention as well and the Libertarian Party of Virginia will not support an Amanda Chase run for Governor. Whether they run a candidate at this point is hard to know but things should be clearer by August.

Chase has real work to be done. Much of it is within her own Party. Chase needs to mend fences with her own Party before she has any chance of statewide run. Chase can possibly win more people over with a little more grace than anything else. Otherwise, Chase is a real problem that Republicans will have to solve if there is any chance of winning a statewide race in Virginia in 2021.

As stated in the Daily Progress, “Amanda just doesn’t have a level of substance, maturity or seriousness that Virginians expect in a gubernatorial candidate,” Sen. Mark Obenshain, R-Rockingham.

Protest Rally Being Organized to Re-Open Virginia:

Many Virginians are planning to protest in Richmond at the State Capital in response to the continuation of school closures and business shut downs across the Commonwealth of Virginia ordered by Democratic Governor Ralph Northam in two weeks.

Following the lead of State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R) representing her Senatorial District in the suburbs of Richmond, Virginians plan to rally in defiance of the Governor's Executive Orders restricting gatherings in the State. Chase in recent weeks has been ginning up her base support for her run for Governor in 2021  by taking to social media and challenging the orders of Governor Northam and his restrictions on many businesses throughout Virginia. Chase would like to see the Commonwealth "open for business" and like the rally that drew some sixty thousand Virginians to Lobby Day back in January over Second Amendment rights Chase is hoping that Virginians will support her demands to re-open.

Organizers hope to bring Virginians out to demonstrate outside the State Capital, which as of Wednesday April 15th has been locked down  by the Capital Police. The call for the rally follows others around the country that have opposed governmental restrictions imposed on business and civilians alike. The most recent protests in Michigan against Governor Whitmer are the latest to make national headlines and President Trump appears to have called for Americans to "liberate" after new coronavirus guidance has been implemented by states.

Michigan has not been alone. Ohio, Kentucky and North Carolina have all experienced protests over the extended shutdowns. The protests have been against both Democratic and Republican Governors alike. Michigan protesters used their cars to line the streets of the capital in a rally dubbed "Operation Gridlock". The protest in Michigan was not supported by the Michigan medical community and the Michigan Nurses Association even released a statement calling the protest "irresponsible".

Virginians will have to determine for themselves whether the risk of exposure warrants driving to Richmond for the rally. The most severe region on Virginia impacting  by the virus thus far is the Northern Virginia areas of Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington and Prince William. It would certainly be ill advised for any Virginian to leave those areas and drive to Richmond given what the guidance has been relating to people who may not show any symptoms but may still be a potential carrier.

Another concern is the rising number of cases in the Counties of Henrico and Chesterfield. The latter represents Senator Chase's home base and is approaching 300 confirmed cases while Henrico has experienced 532 cases. Many suspect that these will be the localities that the majority of supporters of the protest will come from and many in the State Government are warning that such a rally would not be in the interest of "public safety".

Many have ratcheted up the rhetoric against Governor Northam in recent weeks with his extended shutdown orders under the banner of "freedom" and "liberty". For Virginians those are two things very hard to ignore given the history of Virginia herself. While no one would likely characterize Senator Chase as a Patrick Henry, Chase has certainly attempted to capitalize on the growing opposition to the "stay at home" orders and Virginians displeasure with Governor Northam. No other Virginia leaders appear joining to calls for protest though many have expressed concerns.

Senator Chase stated "We know our Constitutional rights and “We the People” will prevail over tyrants both foreign and domestic-so help us God." Chase has continually referred to Northam as a "tyrant" throughout the General Assembly session and during the coronavirus crisis. Chase goes further and states "Our VA Governor is more concerned with letting criminals out of our jails and prisons during COVID19 than he is in allowing law abiding citizens protect themselves....I and millions of Virginians will not allow our summer to be taken from ‘never mind their livelihoods and their small businesses’ mindset, pushed by liberal minded leadership."

Chase has said she create "a small business task force" to address the concerns of Virginia business interests but very little has been disclosed regarding who will e on this task force. Chase has called out Governor Northam's "experts" routinely with regard to the crisis so it will be interesting to see who the Chase advisory task force will actually be made up of.

State Senator Steve Newman (R)who many Virginians would like to see run for Governor in 2021 as well stated :

" We have not been consulted on the actions the Governor takes in his Executive Orders, nor have we received advance notice of those actions or the details accompanying them.We need to clarify this because so many of you have asked if we were involved in the decision making on the orders."

State Senator Emmett Hanger (R) stated:

"Going into the weekend, please continue to STAY HOME to help us all reduce exposure and from spreading the virus. Show your support for healthcare workers, law enforcement and first responders by staying home and helping to flatten the curve. Call to check on neighbors and say a collective THANKS to all working to keep our groceries stocked, food and other essentials available and working to protect the health of VA"

State Senator Jill Vogel (R):

"I appreciate everyone’s notes and feedback. I understand how devastating this is for everyone—personally, financially, for our healthcare workers and first responders, for children who want to be in school, and for parents with essential jobs who need childcare. The list of needs is endless and our Senate office is working around the clock to respond to every request for help. We are all affected and I am uniquely aware of the impact because I communicate with people all day who are in crisis. I receive a lot of feedback about government making it worse as well. I promise that I abide by the rule that government’s goal should be first do no harm and for my part, I am trying to make sure that we do the right thing. The House and Senate are scheduled to reconvene this month and I anticipate that we will address many issues raised by constituents.

I represent a majority rural district and I am grateful that we have the freedom to be outdoors. It is a huge challenge for families not to leave the house and I hope that everyone can stay stay home and remain healthy.

We have distributed regular updates online and in the newspaper for those not online. Please let us know if you need help and we will respond as quickly as possible."

There appears to be a stark contrast in how leaders are dealing with the crisis in Virginia. Some appear to be fueling the fears and anger while others appear to be addressing the needs of Virginians and keep them informed while they offer assistance to constituents. It will be up to Virginians to decide for themselves what the proper course should be to follow in the coming weeks and whether or not to rally at the State Capital or respect both the Federal and State crisis guidelines.

The Real Division of the Virginia GOP: Senate Bill 868

No single bill in the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session represents the growing division within the Virginia Republican Party than Senate Bill 868.

The Republican Party of Virginia is quickly approaching a cross roads that will forever shape the Party for a generation or more. There has been little examination by Republican Leadership in Richmond to address the factors that contributed to the loss of the majority in the General Assembly after holding it for almost three decades. Media outlets took the lead on the easy analysis regarding last November in terms of turnout claimed to have delivered the Virginia Democrats its new majority in both the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate.

The deeper analysis speaks to the contributing factors that thus far the Republican Party of Virginia has been unwilling to either accept or refuses to address with its messaging. In fairness, the issue is not across the board within the elected ranks of the Party but a divide exists that is being exasperated by the social conservative elements continual displeasure with the fiscal conservatives who have little interest in elevating social issues to the top of the platform. The social conservative messaging while have appeal to a significant percentage of the Party has not broaden the recruitment of Republican candidates especially in Northern Virginia. The policy positions of the social conservative wing of the Party are not align with the growing population of Northern Virginia where Republicans no longer hold a single seat in areas where they once dominated especially in the House of Delegates. For example, there is not a single seat in the General Assembly held by a single Republican representing any district from Fairfax County. Fairfax is the largest locality in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

In 2019, the Republican Party failed to attract, recruit and run candidates in over thirty races across the Commonwealth. This would be a hard enough issue to face moving forward but with the greater divisions growing within the Party along ideological lines it very well could boil over to disaster for the Virginia GOP in 2021. In 2021, seats in the House of Delegates will be back on the ballot along with the Governor's race in Virginia. The Republican nominee to run for Governor very well could have a direct impact on all the down ballot races.

The growing trends demonstrate the registering of younger voters especially in suburban areas. Indications from the Democratic Primary on Super Tuesday show that more and more younger voters are engaged at a time when the Virginia Republican Party is becoming older and more rural where frankly the populations do not compare to the higher density urban areas where Democratic candidates are dominating. These fact translates to a muddy picture for future statewide races for Republican candidates without broad support from the electorate and that includes younger families.

Virginia population is continuing to climb and will approach nine million in the coming decades. The majority of the population increase is coming in Northern Virginia where Republicans are already losing support. Support that now is said to have fallen below 30% for the first time in over forty years within the region. The demographics of the region that many  believe ultimately will determine all statewide races moving forward is changing. The region is becoming much more diverse than every before.

By 2030 every single "Baby Boomer" in Virginia will be 65 years old or older. The largest and fastest growing ethnic population in Northern Virginia is Asian followed by the Hispanic population. In Fairfax County alone the immigrant population is exploding. The Asian American population now represents 19.3% and the Hispanic American population represents 16.4% in Fairfax County far exceeding the African American population.

Fairfax, Loudoun and Arlington are some of the wealthiest counties in all of America yet the Republican messaging is now not resonating. Localities with medium incomes that now have reached two times the national average continue to vote Democratic. Is the Republican Party of Virginia incapable of appealing to these voters? Is the Party trying to appeal to them with its messaging? Or have elements within the Party turned voters off with the so called "principled" positions that have deep traditional ties to the moral majority of previous political eras?

If the messaging regarding immigrants and other demographics within our country are any indication than there appears to be a true lack of understanding and leadership from the Republican Party of Virginia regarding the future political landscape of Virginia. If the "Conservative" rank and file want to continue their efforts to politically alienate Virginia voters the direct result certainly will be a continuation of the statewide defeats during general election ballot boxes.

Today while the majority of the GOP appears willing to put the safety and welfare of Virginians before politics and support Governor Northam regarding the pandemic shutdown, the opportunists within the Party are attempting to rile up the conservative base with rhetoric that totally paints the Party as a whole as dysfunctional. While this may rally people to causes of course and raise the level of certain politicians it also will create a bitter taste for most Virginians who do not believe that the shutdown is someone being orchestrated as an assault of religion across the Commonwealth.

These attempts further reinforce the controversial positions that the conservative wing of the Republican Party of Virginia have taken in recent years. Last year it was a concerted effort to condemn immigrants. Conservatives failed to craft a consistent message regarding "illegal" or "unlawfully present" aliens but rather came across attacking all immigrants in Virginia while demonstrating support for border wall security.

During the 2020 Virginia General Assembly Session, Social Conservative leaders within the Virginia GOP decided to in effect support discrimination. That will come as a shock to many within the Party but the actions of the minority within the Party will forever characterize the entire Party during upcoming elections. The history of the Republican Party and its fight for civil rights and that legacy continues to be undermined by votes taken by the social conservative wing of the Party. How could social conservatives break with the Republican leadership on such a crucial issue in Virginia and one that the majority of Virginian support?

Senate Bill 868 was proposed to address " unlawful discrimination in public accommodations and employment in the Virginia Human Rights Act. Currently, under the Act there is no cause of action for discrimination in public accommodations, and the only causes of action for discrimination in employment are for (i) unlawful discharge on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, or childbirth or related medical conditions including lactation by employers employing more than five but fewer than 15 persons and (ii) unlawful discharge on the basis of age by employers employing more than five but fewer than 20 persons. The bill allows the causes of action to be pursued privately by the aggrieved person or, in certain circumstances, by the Attorney General. Before a civil cause of action may be brought in a court of the Commonwealth, an aggrieved individual must file a complaint with the Division of Human Rights of the Department of Law, participate in an administrative process, and receive a notice of his right to commence a civil action. The bill prohibits discrimination in public and private employment on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity. The bill also codifies for state and local government employment the current prohibitions on discrimination in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, age, marital status, disability, or status as a veteran. Additionally, the bill (a) prohibits discrimination in public accommodations on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran; (b) prohibits discrimination in credit on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, pregnancy, childbirth or related medical conditions, disability, and status as a veteran; and (c) adds discrimination on the basis of an individual's sexual orientation, gender identity, or status as a veteran as an unlawful housing practice."

The bill clearly is designed to prevent discrimination in Virginia with regard to housing, public accommodation , and employment on basis of sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, national origin, and even veteran status. How could any Republican not support such protections from discrimination?

Does the Republican Party really want to take the position that Virginia families with children that identify with a certain gender or transgender or a particular sexual orientation should grow up in a Virginia where their civil rights are meaningless? That they have to tell their children as they grow up that in Virginia they can be discriminated against or worse are not protected? Do those who claim to be taking the "principled" position of support for discrimination really think that Virginians are going to accept their position as anything other than bigotry? At the same time these very same Republicans reject the Equal Rights Amendment, they fail to either understand or comprehend the optics of these positions upon younger families throughout Virginia.

The following Republicans supported Senate Bill 868 which passed the General Assembly:
Cosgrove, Dunnavant, Hanger, Kiggans, Norment, Vogel--

The following Republicans voted against Senate Bill 868:
Chafin, Chase, DeSteph, McDougle, Newman, Obenshain, Peake, Pillion, Reeves, Ruff, Stanley, Stuart, Suetterlein

Should the Republican Party of Virginia wish to run on a voting record of supporting discrimination against the very populations that are growing in Virginia that is the message that is being sent loud and clear with policy position being taken in the Assembly.

Much of governance is compromise. What has been displayed in recent years in Richmond by Republican lawmakers is an unwillingness for many to compromise. This inability some argue cost the Republican Party the majority in the General Assembly. Virginians have been moving in the opposite direction and the demographics moving forward in Virginia warrant a new message to attract supporters not detract them.

The 2021 Assembly and Governor's race provide a critical opportunity to articulate a new Republican message for Virginians; ALL Virginians.

The Not-So Silent Fight for the Soul of the Virginia GOP

                                                                      

The Republican Party of Virginia has always been a coalition of forces keeping the Party together sharing a majority of common interests. The coalition has historically been comprised of Virginians that lean center-right, fiscal Conservative and Libertarian as well as the social Conservatives that typically are characterized as the "far right".

There has been a concerted effort by elements of the Republican Party to fight for control of the Party voice for almost a decade if not longer. For almost thirty years, the Republican Party kept a balance that existed between all this elements but over the last two years divisions have formed. One such division has been carefully orchestrated by State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase (R-11) from Chesterfield County.

Over the last year, Senator Chase has determined to fight a two front war. One front against the Virginia Democrats who are moving Virginia in a very progressive direction and a second front against the Republican Party itself. Chase has been using the Second Amendment 2A Sanctuary Movement in an attempt to broaden her appeal from her social conservative base. Chase began wearing her firearm to the Assembly and anoited herself as a champion of the Second Amendment. Chase has not garnered as much recognition from the Virginia 2A community as Delegate Nick Freitas from Culpeper County has in Congressional campaign in the Virginia Seventh District.

Delegate Nick Freitas  ran for Republican nomination for United State Senate in 2018 but lost narrowly in the Republican primary to Corey Stewart. I was clear from the outset that the low turnout of the primary in 2018 would come back to haunt the Virginia GOP as Stewart had little traction in earning any votes from the middle or independents. All those votes went to Senator Tim Kaine (D). Freitas would have had broader appeal to the Virginia electorate and many believe that if he is unsuccessful at the Seventh District nominating convention that Nick Freitas should run for Governor in 2021.
A Freitas run for Governor would have him in effect running for the Republican nomination against a Corey Stewart-style candidate  again with little to no messaging other than division. Senator Chase is the only declared Republican candidate thus far for the Governor's race and she has patterned her campaign thus far after Corey Stewart's 2018 failed campaign.

There have been some draft measures to attempt to get other GOP offcials to consider a run for the nomination. Former Congresswoman Barbara Comstock and State Senator Jill Vogel are two that many Republicans appear willing to support as well.

An examination of the Senator Chase official facebook page demonstrates that she is determined to not only make her campaign about defeating Northam's proposals but also defeat her own Party. Chase determined in November to leave the State Republican Caucus in the Virginia General Assembly and late summer of last year her own county committee removed her. The Chesterfield County Republican Committee (CCRC) removed Chase for violating the rules governing membership.

Chase wears these things as a kind of "badge of honor" and calls them "principled" positions but Chase fails to realize that governing is about coalitions and bringing people together. Chase has failed to demonstrate an ability to compromise even with the Republican Leadership in Richmond. Chase a waged an all out war on her colleagues in the Virginia Senate failing to seek any common ground or working relationships.

In every instance last session in the General Assembly, Senator Chase drove a wedge between herself and other Republicans who may have voted opposite of her "principles". Chase managed to actually endorse discrimination in Virginia not only in the workplace but with regard to housing, public accommodation but also access to credit.

Think of the message that sends to Virginians. Chase's "principled" positions are based solely on her faith based belief systems. Many have called her actions in support of her faith as mere "proselytizing" thus alienating those whom do not share the same belief systems as her. Chase's facebook page smacks of the very same things that undermined Corey Stewart and Chase has refused to be a calming voice when individuals call for "lynchings" of the opposition or more of the same xenophobic tropes that merely move voters further left.
Chase has determined to fight this two front battle with very little financial resources according to VPAP. She has raised less than ten thousand dollars according to people close to the campaign after declaring for the Governor's face in late January. Elected officials cannot raise money while the Assembly is in session so the next quarter should demonstrate a better gauge on where the Chase campaign truly is.

Virginia Republicans have their eyes on this November and understand the importance of ensuring a Trump re-election as long as taking back some of the Congressional seats lost in 2018. Republicans can only accomplish that if they remain united and not divided by the petty divisions that are driving the Party today. Chase clearly wants to define herself as a "Conservative" and not a "Republican" if her facebook page is any indication of what is ahead.

Senate Leadership had no desire to support Chase in 2019 during her campaign and there appears little appetite within the Republican Caucus to support an Amanda Freeman Chase nomination. Many in the Republican Party understand there is a battle being waged today and while it is not for votes it is assuredly for the soul of the Virginia Republican Party.

The Real Uncertainty: The Future of Virginia's Bond Ratings

The Coronavirus 2020 shutdown ordered by Governor Ralph Northam (D) continues in the Commonwealth of Virginia with very little push back from the leaders in the Virginia General Assembly. Virginia continues to feel the effects of an "essential business only" Executive Order by Northam directly impacting every locality in the Commonwealth of Virginia and the underlying businesses in those localities that support them and provide the necessary revenue required for them to perform government services at the local level.

While so many questions remain,  the biggest one is why has the Governor nor any member of the General Assembly sought to address the evolutionary impact of this shutdown by calling for a summit or leadership round table meeting to address the direct impacts on small business and local and state government alike?

Where is the true leadership being demonstrated to take Virginia out of this crisis financially? Other than suspending the implementation of the new budget, what has been advanced as anything remotely appearing as a  bipartisan solution to come to the aid of Virginians?

Both the Commonwealth and local governments derive much of its operating revenues from consumer spending and the taxes that are derived from such activity. The Commonwealth requires "sales taxes" while many local governments require "food taxes" and other taxes joined with the Commonwealth to fund government services. As a result of lost revenue, small business operators will not make tax obligations nor continue to employ Virginians thus eliminating "payroll taxes". Transportation tolls (road taxes) have all but dried up as a result of the shutdown as well and with so few Virginians on the roads with "stay at home" orders the revenue generated from the "gas tax" has fallen substantially.

Why has their not been an economic team assemble to address how Virginia will come out of this shutdown now anticipated to be June or even July? Where are the plans to address the shortfalls experienced at the local level which desperately requires revenue to sustain itself. Revenue that Governor Northam is currently denying them with his executive orders.

The biggest question than no one in the Assembly is raising is what will be the impacts of the shutdown on the bonds issued by the Commonwealth and the ratings levels that these bonds had in late 2019 compared to what they will be at the end of this year. If those ratings decline and in all likelihood they will across the board in many states as well as local governments throughout Virginia, the capacity to borrow and the costs of borrowing will only increase thus costing the Commonwealth millions more than ever anticipated.


"Bonds are used in the Commonwealth of Virginia to finance the costs of long term capital improvements throughout the state. The Commonwealth does not use bonds to close budget gaps or fix cash flow problems. Virginia bonds are primarily used for new construction and improvements at our institutions of higher education, transportation and port facilities, schools and state park and correctional facilities. Investing in Virginia bonds supports these endeavors, and interest paid to bond holders is exempt from Virginia income taxation, and in most cases, federal income taxation.

The Commonwealth's general obligation bonds are currently rated AAA/Aaa/AAA by Fitch, Moody's and Standard and Poor's rating agencies respectively. Rating agencies focus on several key factors in assessing a state's credit quality: control of debt burden, economic vitality/diversity, fiscal performance, and administrative capabilities. Most of the Commonwealth’s appropriation supported bond programs, which require an annual appropriation for debt service, are rated one notch below the general obligation bonds at AA+/Aa1/AA+. This would include bonds issued by certain state authorities, such as the Virginia Public Building Authority and the Virginia College Building Authority" (Virginia Treasury, Virginia.gov)

The following is a typical rating scale for bonds issued by government entities:

Aaa	Obligations rated Aaa are judged to be of the highest quality, subject to the lowest level of credit risk.
Aa	Obligations rated Aa are judged to be of high quality and are subject to very low credit risk.
A	Obligations rated A are judged to be upper-medium grade and are subject to low credit risk.
Baa	Obligations rated Baa are judged to be medium-grade and subject to moderate credit risk and as such may possess certain speculative characteristics.
Ba	Obligations rated Ba are judged to be speculative and are subject to substantial credit risk.
B	Obligations rated B are considered speculative and are subject to high credit risk.
Caa	Obligations rated Caa are judged to be speculative of poor standing and are subject to very high credit risk.
Ca	Obligations rated Ca are highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery of principal and interest.
C	Obligations rated C are the lowest rated and are typically in default, with little prospect for recovery of principal or interest.

This above scale happens to be for the reputable Moody's rating service.

Virginia Performs, originally developed by the Council on Virginia's Future (2004-2017), was a performance leadership and accountability system within the Virginia state government whose goal was to evaluate government financial performances and outcomes in order to inspire and support Virginians toward healthier lives and strong and resilient families. It basically evaluated the government independently.

Virginia Performs took the data and demonstrated how government was impacting the lives of Virginians and most especially the quality of life in Virginia. It focuses on all the aspects of government from education, work force, transportation to finance. If a role or function of government was performed than Virginia Performs examined the outcomes.

Today, where is the true oversight coming from regarding the actions that the Governor or the General Assembly are implementing?

Where is there an economic adviser summit being called for by Governor Northam or the Republican leadership in Richmond?

The Council of Virginia's Future existed from 2004-2017. It began with a vision to guide the future taking into account responsible economic growth, quality of life, good government and all well educated electorate seeking to shape the future of Virginia in a dedicated, positive manner and direction.

"Virginia Performs" performed an essential role in informing Virginians as to the financial health of the Commonwealth of Virginia and provided a website as part of the Virginia.Gov site to dissimilate information to Virginians regarding State finances.

Virginia Performs however was "sunset" on July 1, 2017. This was done while the Republicans in Virginia controlled the majority of seats in the Virginia General Assembly in Richmond. This begs the question now whether this was in fact in the best interest of the Commonwealth.

A state's bond rating influences how much taxpayer money the state can save by securing competitive loans; it also serves as a measure of a state's financial and administrative status. Virginia's AAA bond rating, the best rating possible, is a reflection of the confidence placed in the Commonwealth's fiscal health.

"Virginia's bond rating allows it to borrow money at the most competitive rates available. Having a good credit rating means Virginia can save millions of taxpayer dollars in interest payments when it finances debt, such as borrowing for construction costs. With less interest to pay, Virginia's resources can be used where needed, and the state can maintain its favorable tax rates for citizens and industries.

Bond ratings are also a measure of a state's financial reputation. Finance professionals conduct a rigorous examination of a state's fiscal management practices over a significant period of time and express their level of confidence in that state’s ability to safely meet its scheduled interest and principal repayments. A bond rating of AAA is highest (best), and D is lowest (worst). A high bond rating makes the state's bonds more attractive to investors.

Note: A bond is an investment instrument through which an investor loans money to a public or private entity in return for earning interest. Typically, the interest a bond issuer must pay the purchaser is higher when the risk that the issuer will not be able to repay the loan is greater. Three major rating firms conduct research and set a rating based on their assessment of the risk that the loan will not be repaid as scheduled. This rating then influences the amount of interest the bond issuer must pay the investor" (Virginia Performs 2017)

A variety of factors can influence a bond rating, including:

• The amount of debt a state holds in relation to the size and health of its overall economy.
• A state's long-term financial management practices, including whether it meets its interest and principal repayments on time and has a back-up plan to make sure it can meet its obligations.
• Changing economic conditions that result in lower state revenues.
• Inaccurate forecasting that fails to anticipate revenue shortfall.

Virginia's bond rating is the responsibility of its governmental leadership. The executive and legislative branches must cooperate to ensure that Virginia's practices are sound by:

• Planning strategically.
• Independently studying problem areas and recommending sound improvement strategies.
• Accurately forecasting expenditures and revenues.
• Borrowing prudently.
• Objectively monitoring fiscal processes and procedures.

No one is talking about the impact this shutdown will have long term on Virginia financials and in effect its bond ratings. This fact should scare every Virginian because as ratings on bonds fall it is historically significant that taxes rises on citizens both at the state and local levels.

J.Scott