Will Conservatives Heed the Lesson of 2021?

 

Things have certainly changed in Virginia since the November election.

Though in all likelihood not in the way in which most probably think. 

While Virginia Democrats continue for the most part to recover from the the massive political hangover of losing the Executive and the House of Delegates with the reality setting in that they are now once again the "opposition" Party in Richmond, directional leadership for the Democrats in the words of State Senator Lucas (D) has morphed into nothing more than a "firewall".

This "firewall" as Senator Lucas puts it on her newly formed Twitter feed since assuming control of the majority for Democrats in the Virginia Senate is and will always be nothing more than obstructionism which in the end will not sit very well with voters come the 2022 Congressional elections let alone the 2023 election where every member of the Virginia Senate will be on the ballot.

Unfortunately, the far right Conservative wing of the Virginia GOP has yet to awaken from its same, tired tactical positions regarding the "establishment". These are the Conservatives that spend more time on social media attacking fellow Republicans than they do working with communities to ensure that Republicans begin the process of returning the "trifecta" of state governance back to the Republicans.

It appears though it is very early that many in the Conservative camp on the far right have yet to accept let alone learn from the lessons that the November election have presented not only in Virginia but in places like New Jersey, New York and elsewhere.

The fact of the matter is if you examine the shifts in Virginia from 2013 to 2020 leading into the 2021 election of Executive offices the Republicans by all accounts should have lost. They didn't.

The question that Conservatives should be examining is why the Virginia GOP overcame the shift in demographics and voting trends and won and by doing so it would better prepare them for the campaign seasons ahead. The truth is the GOP campaign machine was old and tired. It had repeatedly got its ass kicked by a younger, flexible and social media savvy Democrat Party that leveraged local assets on the ground with "foreign" money to finance victories. "Foreign"  money is that from California, New York, Illinois etc that have filled the coffers of the Democrat Party for a decade and fueled a radical, progressive agenda not only in schools but also in the justice system via Commonwealth Attorneys.

The Governor Youngkin campaign has changed the board. Not only the board but the entire game.

Youngkin's campaign in 2021 mirrored many other Republican Governors that in fact are governing "blue states". The Youngkin campaign capitalized on the campaign stupidity from the former Governor Terry McAuliffe campaign but also did many things that prior GOP campaigns failed to do and that was to stow away the far right "populist" jargon for a message that resonated directly to Virginia families and brought those that had supported Democrats in Congressional races over to the GOP. The question now rests with the next field of candidates whether they can sustain the movement and keep those voters aligned with the GOP and risk losing by returning the to campaigning strategies of the last decade resulting in the loss of the Executive and General Assembly in the first place.

Lets face it. The Virginia GOP was rolling in 2012. Even with the consideration of the "scandal" which based on standards today now looks absurd relating the Governor Bob McDonnell (R) the GOP was by all accounts heading to victory in the 2013 election cycle. What prevented victory?

Many will point to the third party run in the election of 2013 that took votes on the edges of the GOP away to the Libertarian  candidate but this is denying the unspoken truth that there was a cancer from within the GOP itself that began to spread and alienate voters almost in the same way that the Democrats alienated many parents in 2021. There was a surge in "anti-establishmentism" back then with much of it centered around Representative Eric Cantor (R) of the 7th Congressional District by way of the Virginia Tea Party. While the Tea Party movement was basically reabsorbed back into the Virginia GOP the sentiment has not gone away with this element of the Virginia GOP.

The sentiment basically was illustrated by State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase(R/I) from Chesterfield County throughout the last four years. Chase cut her teeth in the days of the Tea Party and ultimately helping unseat Cantor played a direct result in the Democrats flipping the House seat in 2018.  By 2020 the Democrats had won victories for Biden and Rep. Spanberger in Chesterfield County long a conservative county. It has been argued that Chase was part of the vocal element that undermined the candidacy of Lt. Governor Bill Bolling (R) in 2013 that would ultimately place Ken Cuccinelli (R) on the ballot for Governor and not Bolling. This cycle signaled the political demise for almost eight years until Governor Youngkin flipped the script.

The biggest difference between Republicans and Democrat activists during this period was the Tea Party put principles ahead of WINNING while the Democrats went about building a ground game that would propel them not only in WINNING but taking control of Richmond and more House seats in the years that followed. The movement is all but dead but has manifested itself in the "populist" movement of the GOP today. Only problem is these individuals are "oppositionists" and nothing more having no opportunities to lead or demonstrate what solutions they would set forth or even attempt to deliver to Virginians. Much of the messaging is tied to valued issues especially Constitutional ones that matter but more Virginians appear to moved back to the old kitchen table issues again not ideological battles like gay marriage or abortion.

Lt. Governor Bolling was popular in Virginia. Had been for years with voters and especially independent voters across Virginia but that was not good enough for those that would label Bolling a "moderate" and prefer to advance backward looking fights and agendas and re-litigating previous battles lost and push for a social conservative far right candidate in Cuccinelli. Of course by the time the GOP was done it was not the "establishment" that pulled the trigger on the series of losses that would plaque the Virginia GOP in the years that followed but rather the ever powerful minority with the party machine that facilitate in truth who will be on any ballot.

Here is some back story on events in 2013 that led to the political wasteland experienced by the Virginia GOP afterward:

In 2008, incumbent lieutenant governor Bill Bolling made a deal with then-Attorney General Bob McDonnell whereby McDonnell would run for governor and Bolling would run for re-election as lieutenant governor in 2009, and then Bolling would receive McDonnell's support for his own candidacy for governor in 2013. The deal was widely known and as such, Bolling was effectively running for governor since 2009,^[1] and in April 2010, Bolling filed the necessary paperwork to run in 2013.^[2] Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, elected alongside McDonnell and Bolling in 2009, stated that he intended to run for re-election as attorney general in 2013, but did not rule out running for governor.^[3] In December 2011, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli told his staff that he would run against Bolling for governor in 2013; the news went public, and in response, Bolling issued a statement accusing Cuccinelli of putting "his own personal ambition ahead of the best interests of the commonwealth and the Republican Party."^[4][5][6] This infuriated Bolling and set up a primary.^[4] Cuccinelli's announcement came two days before the annual statewide conference of Virginia Republicans, at which Bolling and his staff expressed being upset with Cuccinelli's decision.^[7]

In June 2012, the party's State Central Committee, which had new members since the committee previously voted to hold a primary, reversed course and voted 47–31 to select a nominee via convention in 2013, igniting much controversy among party members.^[8] The switch was a major blow to Bolling's candidacy, as Cuccinelli supporters were more ardent and involved in the party and thus more willing to travel to a day-long convention.^[9] Proponents of the reversal said a convention would prevent Democrats from meddling in the selection (Virginia does not register voters by party, making primaries open to voters regardless of party).^[9] Primaries are also run by the State Board of Elections and taxpayer funded; proponents said a convention, which is funded by the party, would save the state money.^[8] Convention proponents also argued that nominees selected by convention historically perform better in the general election than nominees selected by primary, and that conventions allow candidates to present their cases within the party, preventing candidates from tearing each other down via negative advertising seen by the general electorate.^[8] Opponents of the reversal said a convention would disenfranchise military voters who are unable to physically attend a convention, and would cost the party too much money."

Here and now there are many that still blame Bolling but the fault does not and never lied with Bolling. Rather, it like today lies with the very same people today with the Republican Party that continue to call anyone that does not meet its litmus test of  conservatism a "RINO" or a "False Republican" which of course is the most asinine thing that anyone could ever say pertaining to politics and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding as well as history pertaining to the very party they claim to support.

The Virginia GOP has always been not unlike the national party a coalition. The Tea Party and far right social conservatives have forgotten that or at the very least ignored that fact that without Libertarians, Independents and "Moderates" they would never EVER have any chance statewide. In fact, the record for those running on social conservatism or some strange variation "populist" platform is loss after loss in Virginia.

Again, those that refuse to learn the lessons and repeat the same old, tired strategies in the end lilkely will alienate voters once again. It is all over social media already just months after winning back the House and the Executive the in fighting has already started regarding the spoils apparently and who should be the voice of the Virginia GOP. Well, simple answer? The people that WON! That's who.

Recently, in a thread on the Conservatives for Congress 2022 on Facebook this was illustrated not only by various individuals but also an actual candidate once again advancing the "anti-establishment" or not conservative enough mindset that created the decade of losses to begin with. These individuals are no different than the far left in truth because it is about box checking and litmus tests not relating to people as individuals.

Some went as far as to claim that State Senator Jenn Kiggans (R) who represents the Virginia's 2d Senate District comprised in 2019 of Virginia Beach City and Norfolk City  and who defeated incumbent Cheryl Turpin (D) last cycle where both Governor Northam (D) and U.S. Senator Kaine (D) had previously won by ten or so basis points was not even a "conservative".

  

Why? Well as commented in the thread she happen to vote with Democrats on some bills. Oh the horror. Remember a time when working with the opposition was considered honorable? Nowadays not so much. People in some quarters want nothing more than total allegiance regardless of intent of individual bills proposed on the floor of the legislature. It is tribal to them. They have no notion of Reagan's true strength as a leader and his own philosophies that shaped a blossoming GOP in the 1980's after very similar patterns of economics on late 1970's that the United State very well could endure in the year ahead if things do not change. By todays standards who knows whether some of these people even think Reagan was a conservative. We already know they don't think Rep. Jack Kemp(R) was!

Fact of the matter remains that Kiggans only came under this fire because she has dared to throw herself into the race for the GOP nomination in the 2d Congressional District and has already out raised the other three potential nominees combined. One contributor comment on that thread mentioned above was that Kiggans has never been seen carrying a firearm. The assertion is then of course that she is not a supporter of the Second Amendment yet her ratings disprove that assertion. Is this simply a throw back to the ridiculousness of State Senator Chase holding a rifle and holding it wrong in fact repeatedly in photo ops as somehow the manner in which we determine whether someone is pro-2A or not? Do votes and ratings no longer matter?

Which begs the question. Has the far right populists of the Virginia GOP totally misunderstood that the Kiggans record in the State Senate makes it almost impossible for Rep. Elaine Luria (D) to exploit as "extreme" like she has down twice to the GOP in two consecutive victories for her seat. 

In fact, Luria doubled her winning percentage from 2018 to 2020 which should signal something to the populists. President Biden won this area of the Commonwealth by 5 points in Virginia Beach and won running away with over 71% of the vote in Norfolk City. Youngkin obviously performed much better last November than previous GOP candidates including Trump but many of the populists are ignoring this fact and launching attacks against Kiggans when the voting trends show that she in all likelihood has a greater chance of winning the district than a far right populist. I mean lets be honest, if Trump failed to win himself does anyone really think that someone simply mirroring his message will? The very basis some have argued for Youngkin's victory was he did just the opposite both in tone and message.

But you see this gets back to the whole anti-establishment angler that many on the far right push. These were the same people mind you that opposed Youngkin's candidacy throughout 2021 from within the Virginia GOP. These are those people that hitched their wagons to the ever ambitious State Senator Chase who rallied her supporters calling herself "Trump in heels". She lost. Repeating the same mindset over and over in Virginia elections is not going to change the outcomes for these candidates that cannot understand that shift that has happened in Virginia over the last decade. It is no longer the 1990's. Yougkin like his colleague in Governor Larry Hogan (R) who as one would have it also gets lambasted as a "RINO" and "false conservative" by the same people doing it to Kiggans and did it to Youngkin last year before he won the nomination has provided a road map to the Virginia voter for 2022 and 2023.

The goal for the Virginia GOP should be WINNING not intra party skirmishes like it witnessed in 2013. Remember, in 2012 no one anticipated a Democrat victory for Governor until it became obvious that the Virginia GOP was imploding due to intra party divisions and people portraying "moderates" as somehow "Democrat-lite". But alas if there is a way in which the Virginia GOP could mess this whole thing up the over/under on them doing it it probably pretty high even when you consider everything happening in Washington points to wins for the GOP in 2022 elsewhere across the country.

The Kiggans example is just one. There are other races of course across the Commonwealth with many now directly impacted by the new redistricting plan adopted for Virginia. Tina Ramirez (R) who seemingly came out of nowhere in 2020 in the nomination process for the 7th Congressional District and impressed thousands of voters she almost won the nomination that would go to Delegate Nick Freitas (R).  Now, Ramirez has had to withdraw from the 2022 race given Chesterfield County has been drawn out of the district but Ramirez has determined to run for State Senate in 2023 to represent the newly drawn Senate district. Seemingly a half dozen or so officials have been drawn out of the districts they have either represented or have run for offices in the past few years.

As it stands, most Virginians have had changes in some form or fashion to voting districts as a result of the Supreme Court ruling on redistricting so the rime is now for the ground games to commence especially for a united Virginia GOP that must release any notions of going backward.

There is an opportunity presenting itself right now in Virginia for the Virginia GOP but the reality is the GOP must heed the lessons of 2021 and look to the examples across the country where messaging was focused not on social issues or social dogmas but the very issues one could argue that propelled the GOP to victories decades ago like schools, crime, jobs, limited government and spending cuts----fiscal responsibility!

Virginia "Redistricting": The Truth Behind Politics As Usual

 

Former U.S. House Speaker Tip O'Neill (D-MA) is often cited as coining the old political phrase "all politics is local" though the phrasing of such though often times different can be traced back long before 1982 in U.S. politics.

Virginians would like to believe that politics in 2021 is still mostly "local" but the truth is politics is getting less and less local by the cycle and this should alarm all Virginians.

The power of local politics is undeniable when it is in fact yielded by voters however the more polarizing the forces of the establishment media and political class become and the more they work in concert with one another the more voters retreat in apathy for the process.

Citizen engagement is often feared by the political class when it is coming from forces it has little control over or cannot yield. For example, Virginia Democrats approved of the citizen engagement last year fueled by riots and looting because it served a purpose for them and their "social justice" anti-white narratives however more recently they vehemently opposed citizen engagement when Virginia parents began to push back on educational issues in classrooms and schools overall. Virginia Democrats also demonstrated objection to citizen engagement when it supported using emergency powers to prevent rallies from being organized and held in Richmond that advocated freedoms that Virginia Democrats clearly oppose.

Control is of course the ultimate goal of political insiders and the political establishment itself.

This is very evident in "conventions" orchestrated to "control" outcomes over open primaries that were once common and called "firehouse primaries". These primaries kept the American tradition of citizens choosing candidates and ultimately electing them from the local level up. In many instances in today's political environment they have been replaced with "conventions".

Why are "conventions" such an affront to representative democracy? The simple fact is not everyone can participate regardless of whether they are registered voter in a district. Citizens can be excluded based on any number of things in truth from attending and voting in a convention method process. One thing that "conventions" also do is exclude members of the U.S. Armed Forces whom may be deployed overseas or stationed throughout the country but vote in their local precincts. There is no absentee balloting for "conventions". Thus military service men and women are in truth discriminated against in the process to select candidates when a "convention" method is used because they are unable to attend.

The insiders will tell its about money. Everything is about money in politics these days.Ideas are no longer the primary component any longer rather the establishment looks at the viability of a candidate based on how much money they can raise. "Conventions" they will tell us keep the costs of primaries down and save the donations raised by candidates and parties for the general election should they win the nomination. 

While there is certainly some truth to the assertion the reality is "conventions" are about controlling the outcome from the outset and from the inside out long before a candidate's name ever reaches a ballot.

Yet, long before the nominating method is determined the most controlling aspect of the process in actuality in what is formally called "redistricting".

Redistricting is in fact the method by which the political establishment and often in particular the one party that is in control at any given time post U.S. Census reporting can legally orchestrate a "money grab" or in truth "vote grab" or "power grab" over a precinct, district or state.

Virginia is witnessing such a grab today. Maryland is witnessing such a grab today as well. In Maryland, Governor Larry Hogan's (R) veto power will be overcome in Annapolis by entrenched Democratic partisans.

As some of you may be aware, Virginia opted to create a "Redistricting Commission"-- a fancy way of describing a group of people hand picked by the political class to make proposals regarding the boundaries or "lines" of the map drawn for the purposes of voting-- that would take up the issue of re-drawing the current voting districts in light of the most recent census.

The battle over maps and lines has always and will always be political because the net result of any map is the gateway to power. Often times these maps are absurd and they are drawn under the rouse of being fair or addressing historical disenfranchisement at polling stations. Voters today often have to pay the costs of prior injustice. Injustices they did not commit nor where even alive at the time to commit but that is neither here nor there in the current "social justice" movement that has pushed narratives that voting legislation and voting maps are on their face "racist" and "discriminatory".

This of course is none sense but it sells. It sells because it is provided a platform by the media establishment that works in concert with political parties to advance such narratives. Where they seek to act as if they are addressing a wrong they are actually putting measures in place to ensure that another group of individuals are silenced or "mapped out" of impacting elections at the polls.

Virginia's attempt in 2020 to go the route of an "independent" commission which on its face was a fallacy has seemingly failed in every aspect. 

The Virginia Redistricting Commission was created following the passage of an amendment to the Virginia State Constitution during the 2020 election.

First and foremost, the Redistricting Commission pitched to Virginians as being less political was in fact overwhelmingly political much like the current system used to select judges in the Commonwealth. Virginia still remains one of the few states in the Republic that has the legislature select and appoint judges for the bench over voters electing them. People often wonder why the justice system has become so political and why it is more and more judges are perceived to be "legislating from the bench" but typically fail to connect the dots. This game like so many in Richmond is rigged.

Redistricting debates always arise every decade or so as a direct reflection of population shifts. The net result of these shift is often an added or a removal of a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. We have seen this illustrated with states like California and New York losing seats while places like Texas and likely Florida adding seats in the future. Regardless, the act of redrawing maps which determine these districts that will ultimately send legislators to Congress is always political and always contentions because the very people with a vested interest in the outcome are the very people drawing the maps.

Before we dive into an example of how the redistricting farce may impact Virginia's Seventh Congressional District currently held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) who won the seat in 2018 as a direct result of a previous redistricting "gerrymandering" let break down what transpired in order to get us where we are today.

The Virginia Redistricting Commission was established on Wednesday, January 6, 2021 with the addition of eight citizen members chosen by the Selection Committee of the Commission after the compilation of interested candidates and selections declared by both the majority and minority leadership in the General Assembly in Richmond. These eight citizen appointees by the political class in Richmond would serve on the Commission along with eight legislative members after being reviewed and selected to the position by the Selection Committee composed of five former (retired) judges from various circuit courts across Virginia.

Again, Virginians must connect the dots here in order to understand the true process of selection. Judges that were previously appointed by the legislature to their judgeships were tasked to review potential citizen appointees from the very body that appointed them in the first place to the bench. So legislators like House Speaker Filler-Corn (D), State Senator Lucas (D), Delegate Gilbert (R) and State Senator Norment (R) initially selected dozens of potential citizen members from the pool over over one thousand potentials and submitted names to the Selection Committee. The Committee comprised of the five judges would ultimately select two citizen members from each of the four legislators mentioned lists to come to eight.

Now the eight citizen members would join the eight legislative members that were selected by both the majority and minority leadership of both the House of Delegates and the Senate of Virginia.

The legislative composition is as follows:

Delegate Marcus B. Simon (D) Delegate Delores L. McQuinn (D) selected by House Speaker Filler-Corn

Delegate Les. R. Adams (R)  Delegate Margaret Ransome (R) selected by Del. Todd Gilbert (R)

Sen. Mamie E. Locke (D) Sen. George L. Barker (D) selected by Sen. L. Louise Lucas (D)

Sen. Stephen D. Newman (R) and Sen. Ryan T. McDougle (R) selected by Sen. Thomas K. Norment (R)

Not surprise the Virginia Democrats totally ignored rural Virginians in selection process and selected Delegates from densely populated areas like Fairfax County and Norfolk City and State Senators from Alexandria and Hampton to represent them on the Commission.

So in all, Virginia created a highly politically influenced body of sixteen members to propose plans for redrawing districts for local, state and federal elections utilizing the most recent census data provided by the 2020 census---yet another major politically motivated process--in order to generate new proposal for the General Assembly to consider.

Of course things never go in the manner in which they are planned.

In fact, best laid plans and all the political class once again managed to fail Virginians. 

The Virginia Redistricting Commission failed to provide a redrawn map by the deadline for the General Assembly to even consider. Imagine that. Mind you, think about the millions of dollars spent on pitching and marketing this commission to voters throughout the 2020 election cycle.

Thus the matter of maps was sent to the Supreme Court of Virginia----who appoints members to this court?--which then proceeded to hire two outside consultants. Whom got to select these "consultants" to the court? Why the legislature of course. One Republican selection and one Democrat to prepare maps for the Supreme Court to consider.

Follow the timeline here. Virginians vote to amend the State Constitution in November 2020 to create the Commission to include eight legislators and eight citizen members. The legislature selects its members as well as screens the citizen members that the judges (5) on Selection Committee all appointed previously by the legislature will select eight citizen members. The Commission meets beginning in February 2021 and ultimately is unable to fulfill its mandate thus the matter than reverts to the courts who then select from legislature lists acceptable "consultants" to actually create new maps.

Thus what began as a commission made up of the voter desired make-up of 50% legislators and 50% citizens has ended up boiling down to two consultants selected by legislatures and approved by the court to actually generate the redistricting proposals.  The court would appoint Mr. Sean Trende and Mr. Bernard Grofman to do the work that the commission empowered by Virginians failed miserably to complete.

Who are these two men that now have the power to determine election outcomes in truth for the next decade or more? Is this what Virginians will feel reflects their will or intentions in 2020 when they voted to amend the Constitution? What now in truth has changed in terms of process? It really begs the question whether many political elites in Richmond knew this would end up being the result and the whole push for a more "respectful" "representational" process pitch was all baloney.

Isn't Mr. Sean Trende a pollster? 

Trende is an election analyst with Real Clear Politics nominated by Virginia Republicans while Mr. Grofman is a professor of political science and economics at the University of California Irvine and both men have been referred by the courts as "Special Masters".

Seriously "Special Masters"? Could the courts not have come up with a better more appropriate distinction than to interject such antiquated terminology that will only insult and inflame many Virginians? "Masters"? You seriously can't make this up and whether intended or not simply creates more suspicion and generates more division among the very people that the political class states they are seeking to provide voting justice to by way of district mapping.

Both Trende and Grofman appear to be non-Virginians which also further creates an issue with many Virginians given so many elections nowadays are being funded from outside influences and organizations that have no ties whatsoever to Virginia. Now Virginians are having to accept that maps being drawn that will impact future elections could not even be drawn by the very people who live within the Commonwealth.

Trende and Grofman are prohibited by the court from consulting with political parties or partisan groups yet in this political climate and the fact that Trende for example is so closely linked with elections and political interests as a profession how can Virginians have confidence that this to will not end up as just another political football as well?

Regardless of the mapping outcome, Virginia still sits with 11 Congressional Districts just as before but the only question that remains is how will any map rendering change the political positioning or composition of those districts on the ground?

To address potential ramifications with the new "masters" mapping Virginians should focus on the Seventh Congressional District currently held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) of Glen Allen, Virginia (Henrico County).

What is interesting is that the "masters" mapping may actually "redistrict" portions of Henrico County where Spanberger lives to the First Congressional District (VA-01) which is held by Rep. Rob Wittman (R). This district is far more conservative than Spanberger's current district which over 60% is made up of suburban Richmond constituents. This is ironic because this was the very thing that changed the electorate in favor of Democrats in truth almost seven years ago when the Virginia 7th (VA-07) lost Hanover and New Kent County in redistricting. 

There is little doubt that in 2018 the Virginia 7th (VA-07) would have re-elected Rep. David Brat (R) to another term had the lines remained the same as when he was elected in 2014. In 2016 Brat won with 218,057 votes during the Presidential cycle where President Trump won the Virginia 7th with 51.14% of the vote but in 2018 lost his seat to Spanberger and only generating 169,295 votes.

What is interesting is that Rep. Brat (R) without having the votes he had in 2014 like 69.52% of the Hanover County vote to the tune of some 26,933 votes and the 69.49% of the New Kent County vote that delivered him 4,979 votes along with the Richmond City votes of 6.504 or 48.97%  all of which were moved out of Rep. Brat's district he still only lost to Rep. Spanberger in 2018 50.34% to 48.40%.

With the redistricting of the red leaning district out of the Virginia 7th (VA-07), the Democrats secured the seat in historic fashion but was potentially predictable just based on the removal of solid red areas from the voting electorate. The Virginia 7th (VA-07) was shifted to a predominately "suburban" district away from the rather balanced make-up it had had previously. in 2018 for example 123,000 or so votes for Spanberger came from just two localities; Henrico and Chesterfield. Spanberger won both these counties with 58% and 54% of the vote respectively. These were the only two localities that Spanberger won in the entire district in 2018.

While President Trump won the Virginia 7th in 2016 over Sen. Hillary Clinton 51.14% to 43.30%, Trump lost the district four years later in 2020 to President Biden 49.81% to 48.71%. Spanberger in 2020 defeated Del. Nick Freitas (R) 50.82% to 49.00% once again only winning Chesterfield County (55%) and Henrico County (60%).

Now it appears what happened in Virginia 7th after the 2014 election cycle to Republicans very well may now happen to Democrats. With the removal of Henrico County (part of full) from the Virginia 7th this will shift the electorate in the Seventh to a more northern trajectory. While it may remove Rep. Spanberger from her own district, it will also remove upwards of 80,000 Democratic voters as well based on the 2020 election results. The "masters" have proposed shifting portions of Stafford County and Prince William County into the newly drawn Virginia 7th (VA-07) from Rep. Wittman's First District (VA-01). These two counties constitute 38% of the VA-01 electorate. Wittman won  the VA-01 58.15% to 41.71% in 2020.

Important to note in terms of the "masters" mapping of potential district shifts is that Rep. Wittman  (R) lost Prince William County 46.49% to 53.36% in 2020 but won Stafford County 54.51% to 45.31% whereas Spanberger handily has won Henrico County that would get removed from the VA-07 the past two cycles winning 58% and 60.64%.

Call political karma or whatever you will but it is certainly political irony if Rep. Spanberger gets shifted to the very district where the GOP precincts were shipped after 2014 that ultimately created the opportunity for the Democrats to win the VA-07. Of course Spanberger could avoid displacement regarding the mapping if she were to move to retain domicile in the VA-07.

Would the "masters" mapping make these races more "competitive"? This is a question I have long pondered. Do we want our politic districts to be "competitive" or do we want our districts to merely be reflected on the will of the people and the local dynamic? Do we really want to simply alienate or isolate demographics simply in the name of "political diversity"?

This is like the political "gerrymandering" of committee seats where you get suburban or urban legislators on agricultural committees. 

Delegate Marcus Simon (D) representing portions of Fairfax, Falls Church in HD53 who resigned from the Commission on November 10, 2021 stated this in terms of the new maps being considered:

“It’s not competitive. You’ve got five very safe Democratic districts and six very safe Republican ones. …I don’t think either of these maps is a good place to start.”

Virginians must recognize that rural Virginia is not suburban Virginia let alone urban Virginia. The interests of our Commonwealth are not and frankly should not be the same not matter how hard we we work to gerrymander the Commonwealth to reflect some notion of diversity. Virginians are free to move and live wherever they want based on the their own needs and desires. In efforts to account for massive population centers where Virginians have determined to move and spread that electorate out to impact more than one Congressional district simply because the population in given areas are growing in essence robs rural voters of their leadership to be reflective of their core beliefs.

Thus rural Virginians continue to see true representation be eroded through political games and out right intentional manipulation.

The net results of the impact on rural voters in the VA-07 is testament enough from pre-2014 to 2021. Does Rep. Spanberger truly represent the interests of the electorate when Spanberger only won two of the ten counties that make up the district not once but twice. 

Could it not be argued that the interests of Henrico and Chesterfield Counties do not reflect that of Orange, Goochland, Amelia , Powhatan or Nottoway in truth? Look at the very differences in schools for example. While Henrico County wants to advance a "social justice" ideology throughout its curriculum based on its overwhelmingly "progressive" local representation as well as in the House of Delegates, the majority of counties in the VA-07 prefer not to advance it but when 130,000 (80,000 for Spanberger) of the total vote in an election having 450,000 votes cast comes from one single county like Henrico how are interests of rural voters with little in common with suburban voters advanced?

These map renderings appear to be nothing more than consolidations of power. Nothing more.

If politicians were truly concerned with more representational maps maybe a good place to start would be not to have politicians involved in the process whatsoever other than passing such determination and having debates on the open floor of the chambers as to why a map is or is not representational instead of using media emissaries to make any case they want to have made to support or reject a map.

Better yet ask yourself why it is that the political elites would seek to appoint those in both the media and academia to actually draw the map renderings for consideration that will impact Virginia elections moving forward.

Why would they not consider using independent urban planners? I mean these people deal with planning and population metrics every day right? 

None of this should surprise anyone. Its all smoke and mirrors from a political class that has long done whatever it could to consolidate power and control while providing an illusion of transparency when the entire process is shaped, molded and controlled by political insiders.

This is why Virginia likely will never see an expansion of real representational democracy with the interests of all served in its General Assembly. If the political class were even remotely interested in representation than they would not start with redistricting rather they would start with taking the 2020 Census data and creating an entirely new General Assembly by adding seats to both chambers to more reflect the population of Virginia in 2021.

The elites will tell you it can't happen because it would take an amendment to the Virginia Constitution but than Virginia just proved its willingness to approve amendments when it approved the Virginia Redistricting Commission.

Have you considered just how under represented Virginians truly are in the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate compared to states with like populations or even our neighbors?

How is it that Virginia has maintained its current House and Senate seat allocation based on population in the pre-1900 era?

The political class in concert with the media establishment have Virginians focused on federal elections---making local elections national of course-- with all calls of discrimination, gerrymandering, or civil rights while keeping Virginians distracted from the cold hard truth; Virginians reflective of her fellow Americans are intentionally under represented and thus disenfranchised by the political class in Richmond.

Virginia's population as of the 2020 Census is 8,631,393.

In 1900, Virginia's population was 1,858,000 and yet in the 2022 Virginia General Assembly Session convening in January there will be the same number of Delegates and Senators "representing" Virginians as there were in 1900.

Think on that. Think on that the next time you hear any of the elected political "performance artists" talk about "representation" or "disenfranchisement".

Interesting historical note, in 1900 Virginia provided 12 electoral votes to William J. Bryan (D) with 146,079 votes out of 264,208. That's right. In 1900 less Virginians voted for President than we now see voting in Congressional district races.

In 1900 Virginia had 12 electoral votes which it received in 1884. Before 1884 Virginia had 11 electoral votes. Virginia retained 12 electoral votes until 1932 when it returned to 11 but then was awarded an additional vote in 1952 making it 12 again. It remained 12 until 1992 when it was raised to 13 electoral votes yet in all that time Virginia never changed its composition of the General Assembly.

The Virginia population has grown by almost seven million people in 120 years and yet Virginia continues to fail to add seats to its General Assembly whereby each elected official  continues to have to represent more and more citizens as the population continues to grow. 

We are all aware of the massive immigration or "migration" depending upon the narrative being witnessed on our southern border today. What will this mean for populations like Virginia's ten or twenty years from now? 

This my friends is the real story behind "redistricting". 

The act of redrawing maps is a direct result not of population "change" but of the political class and its unwillingness to evolve by increasing representation and not simply shifting it. The Assembly could then in truth use the very legislative districts not polling locations as the precursor to drawing Congressional maps that actually make more sense and actually provide for greater representation for all Virginians.

What we are seeing is not unlike what happened in Virginia in the 1850's where Richmond moved further and further away from equal representation of rural, mountain areas of Virginia that ultimately resulted in the creation of the state of West Virginia. What many Virginians today do not realize is how close Loudoun and Fairfax Counties were to leaving the Old Dominion right along with those areas that became West Virginia.

When citizens no longer feel they are being represented the seed of Virginia "Vexit" is watered. These "Vexit" petitions locally were real in 2020 in parts of Virginia which no longer feel they have a real voice in Richmond. This above all else is a good rationale for at least listening and considering an overhaul of the composition of the Virginia General Assembly.

Representation is not merely about the act of voting. 

Any analysis of the Virginia General Assembly demonstrates a complete bias towards Northern Virginia and urban centers on committees in both chambers of government especially during the last eight years under Democratic leadership. This message was being heard by those Virginians who live in the Valley and Southwest Virginia\ whom have very little in common socially, economically or politically with Northern Virginia and whom just turned out in droves to elect Governor-elect Glen Youngkin (R).

Virginia Republicans have a real opportunity before them to address real representational democracy that our fellow Virginians and Founders envisioned. Will they address it or will they fall back into the trap of power and control and simply flex like the Virginia Democrats did for the last eight years?

The very Virginians who turned out to elect an entire Republican Executive last month are watching. They are watching to see whether the election was in fact transformational change or simply more "politics as usual" for Virginians.

                                                     2021 Virginia Governor's Race Map

                                                        Virginia 2020 Presidential Election Map

Political Commentary Contributor: Jonathan Scott

A Stillness at Richmond: The Robert E. Lee Statue Comes Down in Richmond Where "Small" Politics Is Big

 "A Stillness at Richmond": The Robert E. Lee Statue Comes Down in Richmond Where "Small" Politics is Big

Guest Post- Jonathan Scott

“A certain combination of incompetence and indifference can cause almost as much suffering as the most acute malevolence.” 
― Bruce Catton

“And so that generation was deprived of the one element that is essential to the operation of a free society-the ability to assume, in the absence of good proof to the contrary, that men in public life are generally decent, honorable, and loyal.” 
― Bruce Catton, Mr. Lincoln's Army

“Early youth is a baffling time. The present moment is nice but it does not last. Living in it is like waiting in a junction town for the morning limited; the junction may be interesting but some day you will have to leave it and you do not know where the limited will take you. Sooner or later you must move down an unknown road that leads beyond the range of the imagination, and the only certainty is that the trip has to be made. In this respect early youth is exactly like old age; it is a time of waiting before a big trip to an unknown destination. The chief difference is that youth waits for the morning limited and age waits for the night train.” 
― Bruce Catton, Waiting for the Morning Train

I sit here on the porch of the farm house this morning over looking the old Springdale Mill in Virginia's beautiful Shenandoah Valley or as I like to call her "Jackson's Valley" just outside Winchester listening to the sounds of morning knowing that as this sun begins to come up today shall be the last day that this sun will shine down upon the ever present statue of Robert E. Lee in Richmond, Virginia. 

Sitting here some hours and countless miles away from that dreadful place of institutional mediocrity, I can only feel a sense of sadness. This sadness mind you has little to do with what those in this era would have Virginians believe about Lee or even Thomas Jonathan Jackson aka "Stonewall Jackson"  but rather the sadness of a loss of part of our identity. Some 100,000 citizens traveled to Richmond for the dedication of the Lee Monument in Richmond some twenty five years post the war that will create many hallowed grounds throughout Virginia.

"Identity". We hear this word alot. Yet "identity" is simply another word that has been maligned and reconstructed these last few years for nothing more than political fodder. Who we are as a people is not simply what we may believe today or where "progress" may have taken us but rather it is a totality of our experiences that define our identity. 

What does it mean to be a "Virginian"? 

We still have generations of descendants from the "First Families of Virginia" who in this day are made to feel as though they owe others an apology or descendants of those who wore grey standing in defense of their home and families like  Stonewall Jackson who owned no slaves somehow require a "washing" from Virginia history because they do not check of a box on some progressive checklist.

My own story begins some fifty one years ago when I was born to two Yankee parents who relocated to Virginia. I was born to parents who already had seven children none of which were born south of the Mason-Dixon line. Fortunately in the year prior to my arrival my family had moved  and settled in the Loudoun County, Virginia area. My parents wanting me to have a "connection" to our families new home sought to create such a connection by giving me a name that would connect me to the fabric of my birthright so thus my Yankee parents named me after two of the greatest and most revered yet totally misunderstood men of all Virginia history in Robert E. Lee and Thomas Jonathan Jackson. 

Why would Yankee parents name there son after such men? Why not name me after Grant, McDowell, Burnside, Sherman, Hooker, or even McClellan?

This question is one I have carried with me my entire life. When I say question make no mistake this is not to imply I have ever taken issue with my namesakes rather I have determined my whole life to embrace them. Lee and Jackson are no different to me than the Shenandoah Valley, the Potomac or James River or any of the hundreds of towns that litter the Piedmont, the mountains or the valley floors of Virginia that create the fabric of Virginia. These men like George Washington, Thomas Jefferson or Patrick Henry are part of all Virginians. True Virginians anyway. None of these men were perfect men by any means but then no single leader among us today is even remotely perfect.

“And so that generation was deprived of the one element that is essential to the operation of a free society-the ability to assume, in the absence of good proof to the contrary, that men in public life are generally decent, honorable, and loyal.” 
― Bruce Catton, Mr. Lincoln's Army

My parents intent was to provide me as a boy a launching point of the kind of man they hoped that I would become. Values such as honor, integrity, liberty, freedom and service that would ultimately drive me to matriculate at the Virginia Military Institute and then enlist in the military like so many of my generation from my town. The notion that I as a Virginian should feel some level of shame with regard to Virginia's history is probably one of the most insulting things I have ever experienced or witnessed in Virginia politics in my lifetime especially given its coming from a party in Virginia that could not even recognize its own hypocrisy and remove a Governor who participated in the act of wearing "blackface" in my lifetime yet has sought to remove the statue of Robert E. Lee and other leaders of the Civil War. These are not serious people nor do they care at all about true histories of Virginia families let alone preserving anything that is counter to their progressive socio-political agendas. These are the same people who refused to attend the very celebration honoring America's oldest governing body. A body in which many of these individuals actually serve. 

In reading much that has been written since the Monument Commission findings regarding the status of Virginia Civil War monuments in Richmond over the last few years one thing is clear. There is and has never been any desire to keep the monuments. The progressives began of course with the end in mind along with Mayor Levar Stoney of Richmond. The progressives sought the removal by any means necessary in protest and even went as far as to silently endorse the desecration of the monuments throughout the entire summer of 2020 while publicly voicing opposition to President Trump's desire to make it federal crime to vandalize statues and monuments. As a result Virginia now must spend some 11 million to clean up or as the progressives say "reimagine" Monument Avenue in Richmond and Governor Northam (D) is seeking 25 million to "clean-up" other Virginia historic sites. Code for removing more history.

Another Democrat led funding grab. Follow the money. Follow the bid process and see who get awarded the contacts.  Mayor Stoney of Richmond was found to awarded a donor to his campaign with removal contracts. Of course the political machine was quick to explain away the contract as appropriate but does not change the fact it was a "no bid" contract going directly to a clear donor.

In a period where Virginia is dealing with impacts of Covid-19, rising veteran suicide rates, exploding healthcare costs, declining schools and failing roads and bridges this is where the Democrat focus is in 2021. Shameful.

Keep in kind the last two Democrat Governor's have overseen the complete reversal of Virginia's historic tourism bounty and economic impact as declining tourism rates and visits to places like Richmond and Williamsburg have increased thus impacting local economies tremendously. Virginia is so rich in Civil War history with so many battles fought on Virginia soil but the narrow mindedness of leaders in Richmond could very well put an end to Virginia's dominance on historic tourism as progressives set sights on the Revolutionary period next.

Progressives sat by and cheered as  Democrat-funded progressive organizations like Black Lives Matter (BLM) and Antifa wreaked havoc throughout the country in 2020 and turned its focus on Richmond and Monument Avenue in particular. Of course the majority of these protesters whom quickly became rioters/looters in truth left a wake of destruction on a far greater scale across the country and in Richmond than anything that happened on January 6th in Washington D.C. mind you but all was embraced by the media in the name of "social justice" resulting in very few arrests. Meanwhile over 100 U.S. citizens today remain in jail for the events that transpired on January 6 without a peep from the left who claim the high ground of civil rights and still await justice. Ironic is'nt it?

I sit back and rock in the chair thinking just how little has changed in truth in terms of politics over the course of history in Virginia. The only real difference today is the volume of the voices. In large part this has to do with the fact that the majority of the loudest voices come from those not born in Virginia and have little attachment to Virginia in truth. A simple examination of the Virginia General Assembly illustrates this fact. A significant number of elected leaders in Richmond in both the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate not only were not born in Virginia but were not educated in Virginia either. The part this plays in recent actions can not be understated.

“There is a rowdy strain in American life, living close to the surface but running very deep. Like an ape behind a mask, it can display itself suddenly with terrifying effect. It is slack-jawed, with leering eyes and loose wet lips, with heavy feet and ponderous cunning hands; now and then, when something tickles it, it guffaws, and when it is made angry it snarls; and it can be aroused much more easily than it can be quieted” 
― Bruce Catton, This Hallowed Ground: A History of the Civil War

Ironic because when you examine the Civil War era you will find that the counties and cities of Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria today are very similar politically to 1860 Virginia. These areas after all had a totally different view of politics and government than the counties east of Richmond along the James River or even those counties in the valley and southwest likely because they were so close to Washington. Little has changed as the Washington power structure has grown so to has the population of these counties. What Virginia has in fact witnessed however, is a power shift from the agrarian plantation class of the James River counties that drove Virginia to secede in the first place to the tech driven/consulting/federal government worker class in Northern Virginia counties today. In a sense the net result has not really changed the regionalism in Virginia politics in truth that has always existed. This is not new to Virginia. Its western portions broke away during the Civil War era to form West Virginia and in fact many present day Northern Virginia counties including even Robert E. Lee's home county considered leaving Virginia as well joining West Virginia.

Many worry what will now happen to the historic sites throughout Virginia as this new progressive regime tightens its grips upon Virginia. We already have seen the virtue signaling of place name or school name changes especially in the progressive areas of Virginia. None of this of course has any true value other than that momentary "feel good" feeling that comes with such things that simply is nothing more than political narcissism. 

Does a name change of a school educate a single child better? Does it even ever have anything to do with the children? If parents were ever so offended by a name of a particular school why would they have bought a house in that school's district to begin with?

It truly begs the question, does removing the Robert E. Lee monument or renaming any school named after him change anything in truth with regard to educational opportunities, employment opportunities, healthcare, crime or violence etc? Would not the millions of dollars required to remove statues been better served elsewhere like City of Richmond schools? If the true intent behind the removal was to somehow usher in a new era of "equity" and "justice" how does it equate to impacting a single child or family in Virginia in truth? Richmond has some of the worst schools in the entire Commonwealth and yet removing Civil War era statues become the priority over the last year.

I think on my parents who both are now in their nineties still living in Virginia and what they must now think of all that has transpired over the last fifty two years since relocating to Loudoun County from the North. I think about all the good men and women my father served with in state government while serving various Governors in Richmond and all the leaders I met as youth and what many of them would think about the state we find ourselves in today in Virginia. A state where its become acceptable to label people racists for simply desiring to learn more about Virginia history or preserve it in the public square.

You see my fellow Virginians the thing that has been lost on these progressives is they have no real notion of what a "public square" actually represents or should represent in a free society. Its idea of a "public square" is not one of ideas or exchange of ideas rather it has become nothing more than a mechanism to advocate only one side, one view, one message or one narrative. That my friends is not a "public square" grounded in freedom and liberty rather it is one grounded in tyrannical rule. It has become nothing more than an extension of what progressives have done to Virginia college campuses where they endeavor to silence opposing thought and restrict groups from assembly at state funded schools in complete defiance of our laws.

The truth is no one in government today in Richmond on the left opposed the riots and looting of 2020 that brought economic destruction to places like Richmond but would vehemently oppose any rally or march that would have been organized to save the Robert E. Lee monument. These leaders endorse rallies and protests organized by the likes of Black Lives Matter which is now one of the biggest anti-semitic organizations in the country which is rather disturbing given both the top Democratic leaders in the House of Delegates and Virginia Senate are Jewish. Its a simple reality really. This generation of leaders in Richmond are very tribal placing "Party" above not only Virginia but faith as well. This has become the norm. Virginia has seen actions numerous times from Governors Northam and McAuliffe where emergencies were ordered in response to organized rallies they perceived as nothing more than opposing their agendas.  The laters response to Charlottesville and Northam's declaration regarding Virginians coming to Richmond for the peaceful annual Second Amendment rallies are easy examples. Many annual events that never represent a threat to society safety or security in the past suddenly were perceived as threat but only to political agendas not the Virginians.

We witnessed this as well in Richmond regarding permits. If your organization wants to host a rally or protest in Richmond and its aligned with the political agenda in place than your permit to assemble will be provided but if you wanted to host a protest against your government or its actions it will not be granted. Does that sound like "equity" of rights to you? Progressives are big on "equity" and "justice" yet work to undermine the rights of a free people to assemble and protest unless of course its is aligned with their core political beliefs. Sounds alike like the "Tories" of old in Virginia history where counter opinion was squashed and often by British force. 

In the modern era the "force" used is not armies rather it is two fold. One is the use of political organizations to terrorize citizens and two the use of "political shaming" or the labeling of citizens as "racists". For example, I spoke with an individual who told me how he was called a racist for speaking up at a town hall  in support of keeping the monuments by political agitators and harassed all the way to his car outside the meeting where agitators threw things at his vehicle. Not only is this individual married to an African-American but also owns his own business that employs more minorities than it does whites and yet the label "racist" was launched. We can also see this today with the recall all the way out in California where Larry Elders is being label a "the black face of white supremacy". These people are not only very small but extremely small minded. These so called "activists" are filled with a hate in their hearts that does not exist in any  person here in Virginia seeking to preserve all of her history.

The removal of the Robert E. Lee monument in Richmond is the culmination of the decade long battle over "identity" undertaken by the Virginia progressive left. A movement so plagued with hypocrisy that it most likely will fail to survive the next decade. After all, a movement that blames and shames "whites" for all things just managed to once again nominate "white men" like former Governor Terry McAuliffe from New York. It could not even nominate a minority candidate let alone one actually from Virginia like State Senator Jennifer McClellan or Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy both from Petersburg, Virginia. 

Consider the irony. McClellan bears the name of a Union General that fought to free the slaves and both women were born where many slaves were brought through the rail lines of the depot of Petersburg. With all the noise and all the claims levied against "whites" and in particular "white conservatives"the last few years crafted within the progressive political narratives the Democrat Party of Virginia had three minorities to consider including sitting Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax (D) to nominate for Governor and opted for the "white guy"  who earned 62% of the vote.

Opportunity lost.

Just curious though as it begs another question for the progressives. Do they consider all of those Democrat voters who supported former Governor Terry McAuliffe "racists"? I mean after all, if you are "white" and a conservative and vote for a "white guy" the Virginia progressive narrative is that it because of institutional racism right?

In the context of Robert E. Lee, his statute simply became the latest target in undermining the "identity" precept of Virginians reflective of her history. Progressives removing history should not shock anyone. The true basis of all of this is about defeating the "individual" and forcing people into the collective. People like Washington, Jefferson, Henry, Madison, Lee and Jackson must go. The reason is they represent something that progressives oppose. They were divine sparks of things like individualism, self reliance, individual responsibility, liberty, freedom and home rule or self determination all things progressives must destroy in the name of "the state".

Just as my Yankee parents named me after two great Virginians no matter how flawed so that I may have a "connection" to my home and my land that is exactly what the progressive movement seeks to destroy. They do not want Virginians to have any "connection" to Virginia's past let alone those Virginians that formed the very foundation of our entire nation.

The "public square" belongs to all Virginians. Virginians should remind progressives this Fall of that fact.  Those that would deny future generations of Virginia history or revise her storied history not only disrespects all those that lived throughout Virginia history but in fact is as shameful as enslavement itself.

If Virginians want their children to be enslaved to a doctrine that would demand individuals relinquish individual freedoms and liberty in the name of "the state" that by all means support progressives at the ballot box this Fall because in truth that is the very fight that Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson fought against the federal government in 1860. Progressives can never get passed "group think" or "collectivism" which is why they always make the absurd claims that every Virginian that wore grey supported, advocated, endorsed or condoned slavery but then why should any of us be surprised given many of these people in Richmond are not even real Virginians anyway.

Did every Democrat support, condone, endorse Governor Ralph Northam's "blackface" simply because they are Democrats? Here in lies the very problem of "group think" and "collectivism". Using the progressive logic every Democrat that did not remove themselves from the Democrat Party is responsible for Northam's action and thus a "racist"  just like every Virginian who did not leave the state or fought with Virginia after Virginia joined the Confederacy. After all , it was the Democrats in Richmond who drove Virginia to secession which was a political determination by vote.

Virginians are a strong lot. Our strength lies in our people. Our strength lies in all the experiences in totality our homeland has faced since our original colony. We didn't need statues removed from our "public square" to elevate us or "progress". We did that on our own over the years in truth and have always led from the front until this generation of leadership in Richmond.

Let me remind the uninformed we did not have to remove statues in Richmond to elect the first African American Governor in United States history post Reconstruction in our Commonwealth in 1989 nor did we as a people require removal of and Civil War monuments to provide President Obama Virginia's electoral votes twice.

Progressives should stop demeaning the honor and integrity of Virginians and using history as  sword against Virginians who never committed the great sin in the first place. Progressives should tred very carefully our they ultimately may find themselves making the very same political miscalculations as those Democrats in the 1850's-1860's Virginia. Maybe progressives should listen for to the modern day Whigs in the Democrat Party before they manage to destroy they party itself in the decades to come.

Heed this warning---a warming that history provided:

“Sensible men, however, really had very little to do with it. The war itself did not make very much sense, which may have affected the way it was directed. It was being fought because emotion had been evoked to deal with a crisis that called for intelligence. There had been the great argument between men and sections, with many old values endangered, and on each side there had arisen men with blazing eyes and hot hearts to arouse their fellows to imminent peril. Fear had been called forth (because it is thought that men are most surely to be aroused by fear), and then came the anger that goes with fear, and finally the great unreason that goes with both had come out to take control of things—a situation deeply lamented by all who had created it.” 
― Bruce Catton, Mr. Lincoln's Army

“The Civil War was ABOUT something. It was fought FOR something. And—let us never for a moment forget it—it WON something....
It was fought for freedom—and if ever anything was worth fighting a war for, freedom was and is the cause. . . .

And that is why the Civil War is worth remembering. It gave us a broader freedom, and it laid upon us the obligation to live up to that freedom and to make it unlimited, for everybody. Freedom is indivisible. Winning it for the Negro, we won it also for all of the people who then were or ever would become Americans—for the man who has fled from oppression, misery and discrimination overseas as well as for the fugitive from the American slave pen and auction block. 

Will State Senator Amanda Chase Run as an Independent?

State Senator Amanda Chase (I-R) from Chesterfield County representing the VA-11 Senate District today posted on her social media page that she would make an announcement today regarding her intentions regarding the 2021 Virginia Governors race.

Chase has teased for months that she would run as an independent having walked away from the GOP Senate Caucus last November after the selections were made for leadership within the caucus and after earlier in that month being removed from her local GOP committee the Chesterfield County Republican Committee (CCRC) for violating party rules.

Here is the release from State Senator Chase:

"TODAY is a BIG DAY!!

Will I run as a Republican or Independent?

This will be determined today.

While representing ALL people in the Senate as a Republican for the past 5 years; I am proudly a Christian, Conservative, Republican and in that order.

My voting record confirms that I have a solid conservative voting record:

100% rating VCDL, ALL 5 years

A rating, NRA

100% rating, Family Foundation, ALL 5 years

100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years

Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party (see end of post for Fact Checks)

The Republican Party of Virginia decides today if we have a convention or statewide primary for the Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General 2021 candidates.

As many of you know I’ve said I will fully seek the Republican nomination for Governor in a primary only. If a political consultant controlled party convention is chosen I will run as an Independent. I made this announcement publicly back in February when I announced my run for Governor."

The prospects of a successful independent run are slim statewide in Virginia for any candidate but for Chase even more so. Chase appears to now have moved in the opposite direction that the majority of Virginians. Chase is prominent former Tea Part activist from early in the last decade and worked on campaigns before herself challenging an incumbent in the VA-11. Chase challenged Senator Steve Martin (R) in a primary and defeated him in 2015. Chase held great promise in 2016 as she entered the State Senate, but appears to have squandered her early successes. With the election of President Trump and the reactionary election of 2018 across Virginia that resulted in significant losses to the Virginia GOP, Chase moved further right in both rhetoric and position that got her elected. Chase presented herself as a "reformer" yet in five years in the Virginia Senate has done little to change state government rather spending more of her time wrangling with media and with the Virginia GOP. Chase has attempted to run what could only be described as a "Trump-light" effort using the same social media tactics to build a name for herself. Chase has portrayed herself as the "anti-Northam" candidate and has focused much of her campaign on campaigning against Northam whom will not be on the ballot next year and ignoring the declared candidates from the Democratic Party.

This strategy has placed her in direct opposition of 60% of Virginians who recently in polling support Northam and his handling of the pandemic and very well may be alienating voters. Just across the Potomac River, Governor Larry Hogan (R) who some believe will run for President in 2024 has unleashed a massive WEAR THE DAM MASK" campaign while Chase appears to continue her opposition to masks and mask mandates by Governor Northam. Most polling points to the overwhelming support for mask coverings during this stage of the pandemic and Chase's opposition appears unaligned with the direction most in Virginia are moving.

This is not unusual for Chase. Her entire campaign appears predicated on failed positions. Many political analysts see Chase has attempting to resurrect the Tea Party movement in Virginia however the last six years has proven that Virginians have rejected such positions overall and candidates. Chase speaks to her work with the Rep. David Brat campaign in his election to Congress where the Tea Party was effective in removing Rep. Eric Cantor via primary. This could be the reason as to why Chase seeks a primary over convention.

Another aspect that many insiders believe is that Chase while running for Governor fully understands that it is a very uphill road and has intentions on running for Congress in 2022 now that Del. Nick Freitas has lost his bid to unseat Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) in Virginia 7th. Chase has called Freitas a friend and was one of the few endorsements Chase made in 2020. Chase actively was involved on the campaign trail for her own race while attending many events in the VA-07 alongside Freitas.

It is important to note that Chase could not help Freitas secure victory last month in her own county of Chesterfield where Freitas lost by 11 points. Chase has not acknowledged the fact that Chesterfield County has changed and is no longer a "solid red" county in the GOP stable. Chesterfield for the first time in the post WWII supported a Democrat for President in former VP Joe Biden and in the Congressional race supported Spanberger for a second time in four years.

Chase in truth has her own issues at home regardless of the status of the nominating process. Chase won her district in 2015 by 27 poonts yet only managed a win in 2019 by 9 points. That is a significant decline in support and even more alarming when you consider in 2016 Chase's district was one of the most overwhelmingly supportive of President Trump.

The biggest concern right now for any campaign is money not nomination method. Chase has been in the race the longest of any candidate of either party and has raised the least amount of any declared candidate as of Sept. 1. Chase has only raised 200,000 where freshman Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy (D) has already raised over 750,000 and joined the race some four months after Chase. Now that a second candidate in Del. Kirk Cox (R) has officially declared, Chase appears to have lost an immense opportunity the last ten months when she had all the oxygen.

What can only be described as "classic Chase", Chase is demanding that the Virginia GOP do what she wants in terms of the nominating process issuing a threat of sorts however such efforts backfired on Chase in November 2019 ultimately resulting with her departure from the GOP Caucus. Chase preference for the primary process is interesting given her lack of money. Typically conventions regardless of the Chase claims on her page costs candidates less money that statewide primaries. The audience of a convention of course is much more defined and smaller. The issue that Chase faces with these convention goers is they have been to the circus and seen the strings more times than not. Many are actively engaged in politics far more than average general election voters. Chase herself was a delegate to the convention held in August that nominated Del. Nick Freitas over first time candidate Tina Ramirez. Many have asserted that these convention goers know Chase far too well and would not support her initially on a first ballot and where depending upon how many declare to run could see Chase out of the nomination race after the first balloting.

If Chase does declare today to run as an "independent" than Virginians can fully expect to see her running for Congress in 2022 after losing a third party bid for Governor in 2021. Chase does have other issues to sort out at home as well as many rumbles have begun in Chesterfield to unseat Chase as State Senator in 2023. Much will be determined by the redistricting planning that may go into effect before the next Virginia Senate race in 2023 with new lines being drawn but one thing is certain; Chase will be primaried as she primaried Senator Steve Martin in 2015.

**** Fact Check on the Amanda Chase Facebook post today*****

Chase stated the following:

"100% rating, National Federation of Independent Businesses, ALL 5 years "

Fact Check:

Chase received rating of 83% 2016-17 her first two sessions in the Virginia Senate not 5 years at 100%

Chase claims "Highest score VA Legislator, VA Tea Party":

Ratings- Virginia Tea Party Federation 94% (2019) Fiscal Conservative Issues

84% (2019) Conservative Issues

100% (2012-19) Civil Libertarian Issues

Other examples of Legislators with Same ratings as Chase or better:

Del. Kirk Cox (R) 100% VCDL rating 2020

100% Family Foundation 2020

100% Virginia Chamber of Commerce 2019

100% Nat. Federation of Independent Business 2017-19

Sen. Jill Vogel (R) 100% National Rifle Association

100% Virginia Tea Party Federation (2017- H/I)

Del. Nick Freitas (R) 100% VCDL rating

Important to note Ratings: CHASE

American Conservative Union 89% (2018)

Virginia Chamber of Commerce 73% (2019)