The Progressive media loves to throw out participation medals or cast long shadows on results by the Republicans in just about every instance. In the face of sweeping victories in Kentucky for the GOP, the Progressive media only wishes to focus on the Governorship lost by Republicans. Meanwhile, in Virginia its an "all blue" narrative.
They certainly do not want to focus on the Kentucky Attorney General race where an African American Republican candidate, Daniel Cameron, whom President Trump while visiting and hosting a rally in Kentucky called a "rising star" won. The media of course reported his name as the winner all be it with little concentration instead focusing on the "one" Executive post lost by the Republican Governor. CNN and MSNBC pundits gave little mention of the fact it was a minority candidate that for the first time was elected to the Attorney General position.
Clearly, had Daniel Cameron been a Democrat the news feed would have exploded. You see, Cameron goes against the narrative just like many candidates in Virginia this election cycle that ran closer than expected races. Candidates like DJ Jordan who can for House of Delegates in an entrenched growing liberal area of the Northern Virginia influenced by growing immigrant populations. Areas of Northern Virginia have witnessed massive growth over the last few decades.
The number of Hispanics in many areas have doubled while the number of Asian immigrants has tripled. The population in general has exploded especially in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties. There is no argument the population is more diverse and more concentrated. Housing has turned to greater concentrations of townhouses, condos, apartments etc over single family homes in many areas to accommodate the growth. Maximum density of housing exists now in areas that were once rural in nature.
Counties like Loudoun morphed into true "bedroom" communities of Washington D.C. However, the effort to attract greater business classes and cheaper labor by Republican administrations in Richmond would eventually create exactly the outcome that would revert the Virginia Assembly back to Democrats for the first time in over eighteen years. The Republican "pro growth" and Chamber of Commerce influenced policies invited the Party's own demise on Tuesday. It was simply a case of cause and effect.
Virginia was recently rated #1 for business. CNBC rated Virginia the "Top State for Business" 2019. The workforce is highly skilled and dozens of technology and innovation companies have come to Virginia and set up shop mostly in Northern Virginia. Virginia's reliance on the defense industry and all its tentacles that permeate Virginia's economy equates to 12% of the overall economy. Throw in all the lobbying firms operating in Virginia that lobby the federal government and that percentage climbs even higher. The defense spending that is attributed to a significant percentage of the economy is the largest percentage of any state in the country.
Almost 40% of Virginia adults have college education. 9% of the workforce is concentrated in what is referred to as (STEM)- Science, Technology, Engineering, Math areas. Amazon plans to spend 2.5 billion and hire some 25,000 employees to operate its planned facility in Northern Virginia. Many would argue the plan to place Amazon in Northern Virginia was by design by Democrats. The areas certainly was not in "need" of the facility from an employment perspective. There are dozens of areas of Virginia that require a facility like the one proposed more so than Northern Virginia but the Democrats siezed on the opportunity that continues the changing of the political landscape of Virginia.
These high technology jobs are not actually being filled by existing residents in truth. The majority of new workers are being brought in from outside the state by the technology companies. Many of these companies are actually buying up real estate. Residential real estate for housing their employees either for transition or permanent residency. These employees are coming from largely liberal areas of the country. Place like Silicon Valley, California, Seattle,Washington Portland, Oregon and large numbers coming from New York. New York is actually experiencing its largest decline in population growth in decades as workers and retirees are leaving.
What does all this mean for Virginia politics? The trend shows that over the course of the last decade and half, Virginia has gone from being mostly a Conservative state supporting Republican Presidential candidates up until President Obama and an Assembly whose control rested with Republicans generally. As election cycles progressed, the majorities thinned and the thinning was largely in Northern Virginia districts. Democrats have long controlled the urban centers; both locally and in Assembly seats but as more and more workers arrived in Virginia from out of state and even out of the country the demographics shifted dramatically.
Progressive pundits will argue that Democrats are winning the messaging and taking control of suburbs like Henrico and Chesterfield County outside Richmond as well as others outside urban areas but its less about "messaging" than sprawl.
Individuals and families have left the cities though some data has demonstrated a return of sorts in some areas and moved to the localities adjacent to the urban area. However, the vacuum being filled is one that was left by county families moving further west in their own counties for better schools and nicer homes. The areas closed to the urban centers but located in the localities outside the city have largest concentrations of rental and leased homes which is a direct result of the higher growth areas taking families into newer developed areas. Those families that sought to leave the city in the 80's and 90's found better housing and by far better schools in the county than the urban areas.
If you examine the precincts carried by Democrats on Tuesday, it is clear for the most part the Democrat precincts are those closest to the city. The further west to you go in places like Chesterfield County or Henrico County the more those areas are either solid Republican or lean heavily Republican. Tuesday bore that out with the GOP winning majority of local races in Chesterfield with only one Democrat on the Board of Supervisors. Republican identified candidates for Commonwealth Attorney and Sheriff also won. State Senator Amanda Freeman Chase also won her Senate race in which majority of voters in her district reside in Chesterfield.
While Northern Virginia appears to have been lost to Republicans. All of suburbia is not lost to the GOP. In Henrico County, incumbent State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant withstood a significant challenge by Democrat Delegate Debra Rodman. Henrico has turned "blue" faster in truth than Chesterfield. Some claim its a direct result from redistricting, especially Congressional districts.
The influence of the policies that have contributed to the loss of the Assembly in large part can be placed at the foot of the Chamber of Commerce which has been the strongest proponent of increasing the labor force and business growth in Virginia. The result has changed the entire political landscape and it is going to get worse for Republicans. The exodus of California will continue over the next decade as a direct result of poor policies implemented by many Progressive Governors like Gavin Newsom.
The innovation migration will continue. These technology migrants will continue to bring with them their value systems and belief systems that are not Virginian. Most of Virginia in truth is conservative minded. Yet many of these workers and transplants ring with them the politics of the places they are coming from and appear to be changing the Democrat Party of Virginia.
Virginia Democrats for a long time had significant rural pro gun voters for example. Now the Democrat Party of Virginia appears to have moved further left to the Progressive arm of the Party and left moderate, conservative "blue dog" Democrats behind. Many of these voters have moved to the GOP in truth but not in significant numbers to offset the population growth in Northern Virginia in terms of statewide races.
The majority of localities in Virginia are Republican. In fact, its not even close and yet the Democrats now control the both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates. Progressives will say it is all because of Trump but that is simply lazy and intellectually dishonest. Virginia has been trending this way a decade before Trump and will continue because of the migration of skilled workers and the arrival of immigrants; both legal and illegal to the Commonwealth.
Both urban sprawl to suburbia and technology and innovation sprawl is what has changed the voting trend dynamic in Virginia.
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