With the election in Virginia only a few weeks away, many would be surprised to learn that one Senate race is breaking all the records for contributions and funding. It has become clear that Progressives have targeted the 12th District Senate seat as their main focus in the suburbs of Richmond, Virginia.
The 12th District is comprised mostly of Henrico County but also has precincts located in deep "red" Hanover County. Voters will remember that in the Congressional election held just last year, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the 7th Congressional District delivering Democrats the seat for the first time since 1971. Spanberger won the District 50-48% over incumbent Republican David Brat. This District was long held by Republican Eric Cantor, former Majority Whip in the House of Representatives before being upset by Brat in a Republican Primary back in 2014. Cantor had represented the District since 2001. The 7th had been "gerrymandered" removing the Hanover County precincts that long have supported Republican candidates and many contribute this fact to Spanberger's victory.
Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump in the 12th 48-46%. The area has one of the larger "independent" blocks in Virginia and this block supported those candidates with 6% in 2016. This block is certainly up for grabs this November.
Henrico County represents 92% of the District and Hanover County 8% with about 148,000 voters. This election is poised to have above average turnout.
Many of the Henrico County precincts in the 7th Congressional are in the 12th Senate District as well. Henrico is one of fastest growing communities in the region and the 12th is currently represented by Republican Siobhan Dunnavant. her Democrat challenger is Delegate Debra Rodman who many in Henrico were surprised threw herself into the race last Spring having served just one term as Delegate of the 73rd House District. Rodman in the previous cycle for Assembly House seats defeated long time Delegate from Henrico John O'Bannon 51-48% having raised half as much as the Republican incumbent. Rodman became a darling of the Democrats straight away.
It was clear from the outset that Progressives would attempt to make the defeat of Republican Siobhan Dunnavant a priority. In 2015, Dunnavant defeated Democrat Deborah Repp by almost twenty point margin. Many believe on the cusp of Spanberger's victory in many precincts of Henrico County that the District is changing or at the very least shifting center left.
Thus far the Senate race in the 12th District has been nothing more than historic. The contributions from outside the Commonwealth alone are astonishing and the bulk of these contributions are funding Democrat Debra Rodman, Progressive advocacy groups from all over the country seem to be involved in this race.
Thus far Rodman has raised just under 1.9 million and incumbent Dunnavant has raised just over 1.5 million with more likely to pour in with two weeks to go. The question remains whether these contributions will in fact put the 12th in "play" or will turn off alot of voters in the area. Only 27% of the campaign contributions to the Rodman campaign according to The Virginia Public Access Project are from Virginia.
In fact the Rodman campaign has secured $192,083 from Washington D.C., $110,000 from New York and $85,612 from California. An alarming statistic in the race is that of the 1.9 million raised by Rodman, only $138,000 has come from Henrico County. In fact, Rodman's campaign has secured almost as much from Albemarle County, Virginia (Charlottesville) where it has been funded with $134,850. Above, Rodman is pictured with Tom Periello former Congressman from that area of Virginia and current leader of Progressive Open Society Foundation in Baltimore, Maryland. from that area of Virginia.The largest contribution total by locality to Debra Rodman however is from contributors from the City of Richmond where the campaign has been funded with $736,468.
While both candidates have used their resources to place campaign ads, Siobhan Dunnavant ran an early effective ad during the recent Women's World Cup with local affiliate carrying the game that made it known that Dunnavant was taking the Rodman challenge very seriously. Since then both have run ad buys with the majority coming in the way of social media. Both campaigns expenditures show contracting with firms whose sole purpose are campaign advocacy and many are digital companies not just print media. Rodman has spent almost $475,000 on TV/Radio buys through Buying Time LLC and MVAR Media. Buying Time is located in Washington D.C and MVAR Media in Alexandria, Virginia. Rodman also has contracted Gumbinner, Davies and Simpson in Washington D.C for majority of the campaigns printing and mailing services. Dunnavant has largely been using Virginia based Pinpoint Media and Targeted Creative Communications for her media placement buys and mailings.
The influence of outside contributions in the race is enormous. This race is far exceeding other races, though many of the same contributors from outside Virginia via political action committees or PAC's are funding various Senate races. The goal for the Progressive advocacy groups is the "flip" the Virginia General Assembly.
One of the main reasons is just this week the Supreme Court has ruled that it will leave redistricting or "gerrymandering" up to the State Legislatures. The Democrats control the Governorship in Virginia and should they also secure the Assembly currently narrowly held by the Republicans there will be a clear path to implementing wide spread Progressive policies not only concerning guns, abortion, taxes but also redistricting especially after the next census.
This is what is at stake and Progressives know it. Progressives see opportunity and its advocacy groups have been pouring money into Virginia. The Rodman campaign alone has been the beneficiary of over one million in funding from groups and committees either single issue focused or simply seeking to elect Democrats.
Debra Rodman's campaign has secured funding from some of the most Progressive groups in the country and mostly from Washington D.C , New York and California. A few of the well known groups and PAC's are:
Planned Parenthood PAC $205,836
Everytown for Gun Safety $51,662
Forward Majority $44,889
Flippable $30,000
Emily's List $13,500
Progress Now $13,000
Every District $12,250
Next Gen Climate Action $14,614
The Planned Parenthood PAC has been funded by billionaire Progressive Socialist George Soros for contributions to Virginia races next month to the tune of a half million dollars. Last session in the Virginia General Assembly, Democrats attempted to follow New York State with a sweeping abortion rights bill called the Virginia Dream Act that would have eliminated restrictions on third term or later term abortions up to the time of actual birth. The Governor himself got into hot water with pro-life groups when on his radio show he insinuated that a mother could decide after a live birth whether the child could be aborted or not in certain situations. The comment was deemed to be calling for "infanticide" by national commentators and President Trump.
Everytown for Gun Safety has long advocated for strict gun control. The fear many in Virginia have is the groups influence this election cycle will result in the repeal of "open carry" laws in Virginia should the Progressives win the Assembly.
It is clear that Progressive advocacy groups are willing to bet on Debra Rodman. She has a record of defeating a entrenched Republican in Henrico County and has gone after Siobhan Dunnavant record in the Senate on things like healthcare and education.
Rodman has come under staunch criticism for her ad buys and Politifact recently found one to be False or Misleading regarding individual insurance plans. See here:
https://www.politifact.com/virginia/statements/2019/oct/01/rodman-debra/rodman-misstates-dunnavants-short-term-health-insu/
Rodman went as far as to call Senator Dunnavant a "quack".
Others have objected to the gun control ads being run by Rodman that attempt to imply that Dunnavant cares more about gun rights than the safety of children and the community at large.
It is clear when examining the funding coming into the Rodman campaign that the next two weeks will be packed with ad buys regarding healthcare, abortion rights and gun control. Her contributors are relying on her to deliver the message and they are spending hundreds of thousand of dollars to ensure that message gets out.
Thus far, the race for the 12th District Senate seat is approaching 3.5 million dollars.
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