Democrats in Virginia originally targeted roughly five Virginia Senate seats in the Commonwealth of Virginia held by Republicans that they hoped to flip and take control of the Virginia Senate. As it stands today going into the November elections next month, Virginia Republicans control the State Senate 21-19.
The Virginia Senate District 11 was not initially a targeted seat by the Virginia Democrat Party. However, the Virginia Democrats have shifted and determined to target Republican seats held by women. The two seats of most priority of focusing resources are Senator Amanda Chase in the 11th, Siobhan Dunnavant in 12th followed by Jill Vogel in the Virginia 27th.
This strategy appears to be an attempt to cater to female voters in the suburban communities of Richmond, Virginia whom supported Democrat Abigail Spanberger (VA07) for Congress in 2018 and supported Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016. Senate District 12 has significant exposure to voters that cast votes in the 7th Congressional District in Henrico County. Senator Chase's District li located on the other side in south city Richmond area of Chesterfield, Colonial Heights and Amelia.
Democrats are embracing recent internal developments with the local Republican committees that have created rifts between nominees and the established committees with the jurisdictions for the Party. State Senator Amanda Chase withdrew as a member of the Chesterfield County Republican Committee because of her position to not endorse the CCRC endorsed nominee for Sheriff Karl Leonard. By laws governing membership require all committee members to endorse "all" nominees on the ballot representing the Republican Party on the ballot in November.
There have been stark differences between Sheriff Leonard and Senator Chase and her refusal to endorse the Sheriff required her membership to be withdrawn or terminated by the CCRC formally. Amanda Chase was not removed from the Republican Party as reported by contrived, biased news reporting in the area. NBC News reported Chase had been removed from the GOP which certainly is a misrepresentation of events. The headlines going viral on social media were misleading and bent on benefiting Chases's opponent in the election next month. Chase appears to #StandwithICE while the Sheriff does not. In 2017, Chesterfield under the Sheriff's leadership was identified as sanctuary county by immigration groups and the Department of Homeland Security. Officials in the local government have disputed this portrayal but the fact is it has not been amended.
Amanda Freeman Chase will not go down without a fight however. Its simply just not her nature. She has raised her id in the Republican Party by being outspoken and not settling for what Democrats in Richmond claim their bill proposals represent but rather informs the public the truth at the heart of each bill. One such example is the third term abortion bill proposed by Delegate Kathy Tran (D) of Springfield and subsequent support by Governor Northam on his radio broadcast.
Blue Virginia has done its best to spin the differences and misleading news reporting to benefit their candidate.
https://bluevirginia.us/2019/10/will-amanda-chases-bizarre-antics-cost-virginia-republicans-the-state-senate?fbclid=IwAR2jI17y88Dspt0aPJbZxmXfqRrP04fCid-owRMpxDY88lXWQiV1-qEPN4w
Blue Virginia does this to steer voters away from the obvious. The Democrats have nominated Progressives not moderate Democrats in these districts. Democrats want to run away from the scandal riddled "blackface" and sexual assault allegations of the Executive controlled by Democrats. Fiscally, Amanda Freeman Chase and Republicans delivered a surplus last year.
Democrats seek to exploit the division with the Chesterfield Republican Party Committee and Amanda Freeman Chase but voters in the 11th District understand there is much more at stake in Virginia than the egos of those in the Party establishment.
Amanda Freeman Chase has the support of the majority of her District. There has been some differences in the Republican Party locally because Chase unseated a Republican in Senator Steve Martin and social conservative and critic of President Trump. Chase surprised the CCRC and establishment Republicans in her upset bid over Martin. Chase was a wild card not unlike Trump and for the same reason many in the establishment do not find Trump endearing they feel the same about Senator Chase. Why? Control.
Amanda Chase speaks her own mind. She creates her own messaging. Some take offense to some of her positions but its hard not to respect her. She does not define herself by the Republican Party and the old guard refuses to accept their irrelevance. The CCRC has witnessed the Chesterfield County go from dark "red" to "purple" over the last two decades. The lack a unified message for voters from School Board to Board of Supervisors. Democrats have increased the percentages of votes cast fro them every cycle and Chesterfield no longer is a Republican stronghold for Statewide or Federal offices like President.
Chesterfield County has become a battleground County and will remain so for quite some time now. Partly do to the diversity of the County and population growth but also because the CCRC has been unable to create a unified messaging campaign taking into account those officials like Chase who seek fiscal conservative platform. Chase has also been an strong supporter of the Second Amendment and opposed to expansion of Medicaid. The expansion is an example where there has been a split in Republicans.
There are issues that many take with Senator Chase in terms of her personality. This of course is not unlike the President, but Virginians risk losing the State Senate should the 11th District become a Democrat seat after the November election.
What does this mean to citizens of Chesterfield and Virginia at large?
If the Democrats secure the State Senate and the House of Delegates than Democrats will repeal open carry laws and legislate more gun free zones and gun restrictions. Democrats are determined to expand a broken entitlement program like Medicaid at the very time their own Party at the national level states that Obamacare (ACA) is broken and Medicare for All should be enacted. Virginia Democrats will repeal war memorial legislation that protects Virginia's monuments erected over the years since its founding. Repeal would guarantee the removal of Confederate monuments along Monument Avenue in Richmond, monuments at Fort Monroe and Norfolk and statues in Charlottesville, Va of Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson that a federal judge recently ordered could not be removed due to the war memorial law enacted by the Virginia General Assembly.
Democrats will not stop with the repeals. They will fundamentally change Virginia. Democrats proposed last session a third term (late term) abortion bill that would permit abortions right up to the time of birth. They claim this is a human civil right for women. Democrats will also work to transform the Virginia educational system even more through identity politics but also through restricting school choice and homeschooling of children.
Is the 11th Senate District in play?
Amanda Chase won her seat with 64% of the vote in 2015 defeating E. Wayne Powell. In 2016 Trump won the district 53-42 over Hillary Clinton and in 2017 Ed Gillespie garnered 53% of to vote over Governor Northam's 46%. Both John Adams and Jill Vogel won the 11th with 10 basis points but in 2018 Tim Kaine earned 50% of the district.
The 11th is changing demographically. Amelia and Colonial Heights is solid Republican territory but only represents about 10,000 of the votes cast in the District. The majority of the votes will be cast in Chesterfield precincts. Republican historical average is 65% in these areas.
Trump won 29 precincts to Clinton's 13 in 2016 where roughly 75,000 votes were cast. A significant of the districts won by Trump and Chase in 2015 come from the larger precincts like Skinquarter, Bailey Bridge, Winterpock and Nash.
https://www.chesterfield.gov/DocumentCenter/View/607/11th-Senatorial-District-with-Voting-Precincts-Map-PDF
The resources being targeted against Amanda Freeman Chase may be very telling for the entire Commonwealth. Senator Siobhan Dunnavant from the 12th District has been highlighting the countless ads that are misleading and false being levied against her campaign for re-election. The resources are coming from the Virginia Democrat Party and ACTBlue in an effort to flip these Republican female seats to their side.
Question remains why a Party that claims to fight for women so much has determined that its future is only secured by targeting Republican districts held by women.
#BlueVirginia #Chase #AmandaChase #ChesterfieldGOP #Dunnavant #AmeliaGOP
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