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The 3rd Congressional District of Virginia (VA3) has long been a district that most political scientists pass by and rarely cover because it has been dominated by the Democratic Party of Virignia for decades. Bobby Scott (D) has represented the district since 1993 and most simply take it for granted based on prior elections that the Demcorats will hold the third district every two years come election time.
The Cook Political Index placed the VA3 has a 16+ advantage to Democratic candidates in 2017 and called it the 86th most "Democratic nationally". Two years ago there was no challenger to Scott by the Repulican Party and back in 2016 Rep. Scott defeated Marty Williams (R) by 36 points. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has the district "Safe Demcoratic".
But while many ignored the district, things on the ground very well may have shifted a bit since the last time a Repulican was on the allot in 2016.
The district is comprised primarily of Newport News (24.13%) Norfolk City (17.31%) Chesapeake City (15.45%) Hampton City(14.77%) Portsmouth City (13.01%) Suffolk City(8.30%) Isle of Wight (5.88%) and Franklin City (1.15%).
The district is primarily an urban district with a medium household income of $52,797. 2016 redistricting has reshaped the district and made it the least "Democratic" it has been in decades after much of the western protion of the district in areas like Petersburg and Richmond City were removed. The district today is only comprised of about a five percent rural component.
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President Trump's appeal in the VA3 has risen over the last two years in direct response to many of the programs and intitiatives he has undertaken for the African Amercian community. In 2016, Trump did not fair very well in the VA3 at the polls. The increase in support for Trump is a major factor in influencing what is happening on the ground in the VA3 today coupled with the fact that under eight years of President Obama the district floundered with high unemployment.
The district now represents a critical opportunity for the Republicans to begin to make the argument to voters that the policies set forth by Trump and not the Democrats are better for the district and that the Democrats in Congress have all but ignored their lives for over a decade. Many Republicans in the General Assembly voted expanding Medicaid for example that widely impacted many in the district and allowed for coverage based on income thus provided greater assistance to those in the district in need. Trump's employment initiatives and community opportunity zones were working to increase employment in the eastern region of Virignia until the pandemic crisis set it. Trump has created many more Republicans in the VA3 over the last two years than previously existed especially in the highly dense urban areas of Norfolk City and Hampton City. The VA3 unemployment remained double the national average for decades and only recently during Trumps tenure had improvements been made at addressing it.
While most in the political analysis arena do not see the VA3 in play in 2020, there is certainly a narrowing of the gap on the ground in terms of control the Demcorats may actually have in reality. Bobby Scott(D) is a legacy candidate who has rarely ever had to campaign let alone ever been in a real campaign fight. Should the Republicans do the wise thing in the VA3 and nominate Madison Downs (R) in the primary being held next month, Scott will actually be in for the what could be his biggest fight politically in a decade.
Madison Downs (R), however is currently in a battle of his own for the nomination and there are forces at work to see that he never has the opportunity to face Scott. These forces are playing a very selfish and dangerous game in the VA3 using racially motivated tactics to seek an outcome that will only end in disaster for the Republican Party.
John Collick (R) has no chance of defeating Bobby Scott (D) in November. None. The Collick campaign is not speaking to the VA3 community at large and providing any messaging that would create enthusiasm for voters to support the GOP. Instead it is proven to me a muddled mess. The Collick campaign was being run by a former Democratic operative of all things before being exposed and was continually harassing the other Republican campaigns like the Madison Downs campaign. Both former Marines, Collick and Downs are engaged in a bitter fight that may turn off many of the vital voters that the GOP needs to bring into to the Party this November at the polls.
The Collick campaign has also been provided the benefit of clear support from the Young Republicans of Tidewater who recently had members during a digital town hall of sorts conducted with Congressional candidates like Jarome Bell and Madison Downs ask leading and unwarranted questions during the session in a clear attempt to undermine these candidates with voters. Auxillaries of the Republican Party typically remain nuetral in primaries and align with the nominee once selected by voters, however this unit appears more active and engaged as an arm of the Collick campaign than a nuetral party.
Recently, John Collick released a statement after pulling out a debate scheduled that he denounced racism and yet appears to be tacitly approving it by the Young Republicans of Tidewater who have allegedly been releasing videos and social media content take out of context or simply just attempting to make allegations with no evidence to support any claims whatsoever. The Young Republicans for example, have been behind the attempt to discredit Madison Down's residency in the district but with little success.
How any of this benefits the broader cause of the Repulican Party is certainly a question for every voter to consider come primary day. The Collick campaign should denounce the efforts being undertaken by the Young Republicans which clearly represent an attempt to undermine others in the race for the benefit of John Collick. Should Collick refuse to condemn the actions, voters should cast their support in protest on primary day and move the VA3 forward with a legitimate opportunity to bring change to the district. A change that the district so desparately requires after decades of neglect at the hands of the Democratic Party in Congress.
Madison Downs is the change that the VA3 deserves,
https://conservativestateus.blogspot.com/2020/05/bait-switch-chase-communications-prove.html
https://conservativestateus.blogspot.com/2020/05/virginia-3rd-district-debate-controversy.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/2606638476319301/
J. Scott
